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USGS2026

High‐resolution surface deformation and slip distribution observations for the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye, earthquake sequence help constrain the rupture process

Splay, or branch, faults are a common geometric feature of earthquake surface ruptures and may provide constraints on the rupture behavior of an earthquake. The 2023 M w 7.8 Pazarcık and M w 7.5 Elbistan, Türkiye, earthquakes are examples of ruptures with multiple small splays, and the Pazarcık earthquake nucleated on a splay fault, the Narlı fault, before rupturing bilaterally on the East Anatolian fault (EAF). Here, we present 3‐m‐resolution surface displacement from subpixel correlation of Planet Dove optical images for the entirety of both ruptures with corresponding surface slip distributions. For a 30‐km‐long study region spanning the Narlı‐EAF intersection, we compare surface slip derived from five data sets with different resolutions (on‐the‐ground, WorldView, Planet Dove, Sentinel‐2, and Sentinel‐1) to elucidate complementary information. In addition, we integrate information from the surface expression of faulting with published dynamic rupture simulations and rupture process studies to constrain a rupture evolution for the Pazarcık earthquake that is consistent across data sets. This work highlights the complementary nature of disparate surface slip data sets and the role that high‐resolution surface displacement information, including from fault splays, can play in constraining nonunique rupture models and refining understanding of the earthquake rupture process.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

HyFlood: A surrogate-model-based framework for compound coastal flooding

Compound coastal flooding is a major threat to low-lying coastal regions and is expected to intensify under future climate change projections. However, modeling the joint interaction of waves, storm surge, tides, and rainfall remains computationally demanding, limiting the development of fast and reliable forecast tools. Here we present HyFlood, a hybrid statistical-numerical downscaling framework capable of computing and mapping high-resolution compound flood hazards while substantially reducing the computational cost compared with fully process-based hydrodynamic modeling. HyFlood combines statistical sampling and selection algorithms with a cascade of reduced-complexity surrogate models that emulate nearshore wave transformation, surf-zone hydrodynamics, and coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding. The surrogate models employ machine-learning and regression algorithms applied to a low-dimensional representation of the flooding outputs, obtained through statistical dimensionality reduction. The framework is demonstrated in southern O'ahu, Hawai'i, a region exposed to elevated sea levels driven by tides, waves, and storm surge along with frequent precipitation-driven flash flooding. Validation of the surrogates against the physics-based model outputs demonstrates that HyFlood accurately reproduces daily maxima of spatially distributed flooding depths. This hybrid approach offers a scalable and efficient tool to better quantify how changes in flooding drivers translate into hazard and impact assessments, and to support compound-flood risk assessments and climate-change adaptation planning.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Surficial geologic map of the Owlshead Mountains 30' x 60' quadrangle, Inyo and San Bernardino Counties, California

The surficial geologic map of the Owlshead Mountains 30' x 60' quadrangle depicts the distribution and characteristics of surficial-deposit materials and neotectonic deformation for an area of approximately 5,000 square kilometers (km 2 ) located in the western Basin and Range Province of eastern California. The map represents a new compilation of the surficial geology that encompasses deposits within the late Pliocene to Quaternary. The map is based primarily on new mapping conducted between 2001 and 2009. Map compilation was supported by field observations distributed across the map area, combined with reference to several published and unpublished mapping sources that mostly emphasized neotectonic deformation. The surficial-deposit units included in the map follow a classification scheme that systematically denotes depositional process, relative age, and any secondary sedimentologic or morphologic characteristics. Identification, correlation, and age estimation of map units are based primarily on the relative degree of development of certain time-dependent characteristics such as surface morphology, including local dissection and surface preservation, surface clast modification, and degree of soil development; these characteristics are implicitly incorporated into unit designations. The map represents a detailed and regionally uniform synthesis of the late Neogene geology for this large area that provides a framework applicable to many interpretative studies, such as regional patterns of deposition and dissection; surface drainage development and evolution; and the distribution, style, and timing of neotectonic deformation.

California↗
USGS2026

Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory strategic vision

This circular presents a strategic outlook for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) for the next 10 years (2026–36). The ASL is a USGS field office in the Geological Hazards Science Center that operates portions of the Advanced National Seismic System and the Global Seismographic Network and focuses on fundamental research for instrumentation testing and data quality. The strategic outlook is categorized into two types of tasks: “Foundational Tasks” and “Aspirational Tasks.” Foundational Tasks are those that maintain the laboratory’s basic operations and services, including regional and global seismic monitoring, improving data quality, and providing instrument testing and support. A suite of Aspirational Tasks is also articulated; these can be considered priority targets of ASL that could improve ASL’s seismic monitoring capabilities and mission. Such tasks include improvements to remote stations, testing capabilities of nonseismic geophysical instruments, detection threshold monitoring, rapid aftershock deployments, and expanding seismic monitoring networks. This report was written with input from the USGS Geological Hazards Science Center, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP), and colleagues with an interest in the work done by the ASL. Although the details of these tasks may change, this document can provide guidance on the overarching tasks at the ASL from 2026 to 2036 and an overview of the various components of the ASL and how they fit into the EHP and the Global Seismographic Network Program.

Circular↗
USGS2024

Oblique contraction along the fastest ocean-continent transform plate boundary focuses rock uplift west of the Fairweather fault, southeast Alaska

Contraction along the Yakutat–North America plate boundary drives 4.6–9.0 mm/year Holocene rock uplift rates along Earth's fastest slipping (≥49 mm/year) ocean–continent transform fault, the Fairweather Fault. Between Icy Point and Lituya Bay, the near-vertical Fairweather fault focuses rock uplift and rapid right-lateral slip by accommodating both vertical and fault-parallel strain during oblique-slip and separate, predominantly strike-slip ruptures. Unusually high uplift rates, indicated by radiocarbon and luminescence dating, result from a 10-km-wide, asymmetric, positive flower structure along a 20°, ∼30-km-long restraining double bend in the Fairweather fault. The principal reverse fault in the flower structure, the offshore, blind Icy Point–Lituya Bay fault, ruptures no more than every 460–1040 years evidenced by uplifted Holocene shorelines. Maximum 3–5 m coseismic uplifts imply 3.1–10 m dip slip per event and earthquake magnitudes of M w 7.0–7.5. The Yakutat block collides obliquely into North America, and our model entails oblique slip on the Fairweather fault with and without corupture on the reverse fault. Oblique slip is evident by vertically offset (>25 m) fluvial and marine terraces and by the primary Fairweather fault strand that strikes >20° to the west of plate-boundary motion.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Global patterns of coseismic landslide runout mobility differ from aseismic landslide trends

Coseismic landslides significantly contribute to human and economic losses during and immediately following earthquakes, yet very little data on the runout of such landslides exist. While well-established behavior of aseismic (e.g., hydrologically triggered) landslide runout mobility suggests strong correlation between landslide size and mobility, limited studies of coseismic landslide runout find conflicting mobility trends. We present a global dataset of runout lengths produced from a new automated method for estimating landslide runout, developed and validated using 1726 manually mapped landslides from five unique earthquakes. We then apply the automated runout tool to 23 global earthquake-induced landslide inventories, producing a compiled database of 73,665 measured and estimated runout lengths of coseismic landslides to assess mobility trends. We find a significant divergence between well-established aseismic mobility trends and that of coseismic landslides, with far greater scatter and more complex mobility patterns in earthquake-triggered landslides. As a function of landslide size, we observe global coseismic landslide mobility patterns are bilinear, becoming increasingly less mobile with increasing size above some threshold. This discordance between aseismic and coseismic landslide mobility may be a function of landslide type, kinematics, hydrology, and or setting that systematically differ between triggering mechanisms and should be explored in more depth to develop predictive models of these unique runout patterns. These results suggest hazard and risk models for coseismic landslides may significantly under-predict or over-predict impacts, depending on the size of triggered landslides.

Engineering Geology↗
USGS2024

A conceptual framework to assess post-wildfire water quality: State of the science and knowledge gaps

Wildfire substantially alters aquatic ecosystems by inducing moderate to catastrophic physical and chemical changes. However, the relations of environmental and watershed variables that drive those effects are complex. We present a Driver-Factor-Stressor-Effect (DFSE) conceptual framework to assess the current state of the science related to post-wildfire water-quality. We reviewed 64 peer-reviewed papers using the DFSE framework to identify drivers, factors, stressors, and effects associated with each study. A total of five drivers were identified and ranked according to their frequency of occurrence in the literature: atmospheric processes > fire characteristics > ecologic processes and characteristics > land surface characteristics > soil characteristics. Commonly reported stressors include increased nutrients, runoff, and sediment transport. Furthermore, although several different factors have been used at least once to explain water-quality effects, relatively few factors outside of precipitation and fire characteristics are frequently studied. We identified several gaps indicating the need for long-term monitoring, multi-factor studies, consideration of organic contaminants, consideration of groundwater, and inclusion of soil characteristics. This assessment expands on other reviews and meta-analyses by exploring causal linkages between influential variables and overall effects in post-wildfire watersheds. Information gathered from our assessment and the framework itself can be used to inform future monitoring plans and as a guide for modeling efforts focused on better understanding specific processes or to mitigate potential risks of post-wildfire water quality.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2024

Recent applications of the USGS National Crustal Model for Seismic Hazard Studies

The U.S. Geological Survey is developing the National Crustal Model (NCM) for seismic hazard studies to facilitate modeling site, path, and source components of seismic hazard across the conterminous United States. The NCM is composed of a 1km grid of geophysical profiles, extending from the Earth’s surface into the upper mantle. It is constructed from a threedimensional (3D) geologic framework and geophysical rules that use (1) a petrologic and mineral physics database; (2) a 3D temperature model; and (3) a calibrated rock type- and age-dependent porosity model. Parameters needed to estimate site response for existing ground motion models (GMMs), including the time-averaged velocity in the upper 30 meters (VS30), the depths to 1.0 and 2.5 km/s shear-wave velocity (Z1.0 and Z2.5), and sediment thickness, can be computed from the NCM. As GMMs continue to improve in the future, other metrics could also be extracted or derived from the NCM, such as fundamental period, site attenuation (ko), a fully frequency-dependent site response function, or 3D geophysical volumes for wavefield simulations. Application of the NCM may also benefit other aspects of seismic hazard analysis, including better accounting for path-dependent attenuation and geometric spreading, more accurate estimation of earthquake source properties such as hypocentral location and stress drop, and calculation of crustal strength profiles that inform estimates of the base of seismicity.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Constraining large magnitude event source and path effects using ground motion simulations

The purpose of this study is to use ground motion simulations to investigate ways in which source and path effects for large magnitude events can be represented in non-ergodic GMMs. While we initially developed computation techniques using CyberShake simulations, the range of magnitudes and source-site combinations is not adequate to replicate what is observed empirically. We therefore designed a new ground motion simulation study, which includes earthquakes with a large range of magnitudes distributed uniformly on a fault plane, and sites covering a large range of rupture distances and azimuths. After running a large suite of simulations (M4-M7), we then develop a non-ergodic GMM with the simulation data. We find that the within-site residuals are dominated by the radiation pattern, rupture directivity, and slip patterns. Next, we modify an existing rupture directivity model to fit and remove the observed radiation pattern and rupture directivity from the residuals. We also minimize the contributions of slip patterns by averaging the within-site residuals among multiple source realizations. Finally, after removing the source effects from the within-site residuals, we compare the path effects computed with different magnitude groups using two approaches. The first approach only considers the small events that have the same shortest path to a site with the large events, while the second approach considers all small events on the fault plane. The results indicate that the path effects of large events cannot be satisfactorily approximated with that of small events using either approach.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Evidence for nonlocal sediment transport on hillslopes from fault scarp morphology

Hillslope sediment transport processes such as bioturbation, rainsplash, and granular mechanics occur across the entire planet. Yet, it remains uncertain how these small-scale processes act together to shape landscapes. Longstanding hillslope diffusion theory posits that hillslope processes are spatially limited, whereas new concepts of nonlocal sediment transport argue otherwise. However, each theory produces subtly different, but distinct, predictions for the evolution of fault scarps. We use the topographic change of fault scarps to demonstrate that hillslope processes produce nonlocal sediment transport. Analysis of a global compilation of 340 dated single-earthquake scarp profiles reveals a statistically significant ( p < 0.05 ) relationship between scarp age and scarp asymmetry, here defined as the ratio of imaginary to real components of the Fourier transform of absolute slope. Numerical simulations show that nonlocal models predict this relationship, whereas hillslope diffusion models do not. To further investigate this result, we examined the depositional geometry of a well-exposed colluvial wedge along the Wasatch fault in central Utah, United States. Our quantitative comparison between the exposure and numerical simulations reveals better agreement with the nonlocal model. Nonlocal sediment transport theory appears to best capture the physics of how hillslope processes shape fault scarps, yet hillslope diffusion provides a useful approximation in many cases. As the processes that act on fault scarps are nearly identical to those acting on hillslopes, our results provide evidence supporting nonlocality as a generalized model of hillslope sediment transport.

Utah↗
USGS2025

Factors regulating the potential for freshwater mineral soil wetlands to function as natural climate solutions

There are increasing global efforts and initiatives aiming to tackle climate change and mitigate its impacts via natural climate solutions (NCS). Wetlands have been considered effective NCS given their capacity to sequester and retain atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) while also providing a myriad of other ecosystem functions that can assist in mitigating the impacts of climate change. However, wetlands have a dual impact on climate, influencing the atmospheric concentrations of both CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ). The cooling effect associated with wetland CO 2 sequestration can be counterbalanced by the warming effect caused by CH 4 emissions from wetlands. The relative ability of wetlands to sequester CO 2 versus emit CH 4 is dependent on a suite of interacting physical, chemical, and biological factors, making it difficult to determine if/which wetlands are considered important NCS. The fact that wetlands are embedded in landscapes with surface and subsurface hydrological connections to other wetlands (i.e., wetlandscapes) that flow over and through geochemically active soils and sediments adds a new layer of complexity and poses further challenges to understanding wetland carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas fluxes at large spatial scales. Our review demonstrates how additional scientific advances are required to understand the driving mechanisms associated with wetland carbon cycling under different environmental conditions. It is vital to understand wetland functionality at both wetland and wetlandscape scales to effectively implement wetlands as NCS to maximize ecological, social, and economic benefits.

Wetlands↗
USGS2026

Methodology for construction of a three-layer geologic model of the conterminous United States using land surface, top of bedrock, and top of basement

This report describes the methodology used for the construction of a digital three-layer geologic model of the conterminous United States by mapping the altitude of three surfaces: land surface, the top of bedrock, and the top of basement. These surfaces are mapped through the compilation and synthesis of published stratigraphic horizons from numerous topical studies. The mapped surfaces create a three-layer geologic model with three geomaterial-based subdivisions: unconsolidated to weakly consolidated sediment; layered consolidated rock strata that constitute bedrock; and crystalline rocks that are described as “basement,” consisting of either igneous, metamorphic, or highly deformed rocks. The data compilation and synthesis are highly dependent on the definition of the informal terms “bedrock” and “basement,” which may describe different ages or types of rock in different parts of the conterminous United States. This report presents the conceptualization of the three mapped layers, describes the datasets used, and summarizes the decisions made while compiling the three-layer model from the various sources. This digital dataset was created as part of efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey to develop subsurface geologic data in geospatial form as part of a broad directive to develop two-dimensional and three-dimensional geologic information at detailed, national, and continental scales. This digital dataset partly fulfills the goal of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program to construct a national-scale three-dimensional geologic model.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2025

Shallow geologic framework of the Mississippi Sound and the potential for sediment resources

The Mississippi Sound, an estuarine environment located between the mainland and barrier islands bordering the northern Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico), serves as a vital ecosystem for the States of Mississippi and Alabama. Spanning approximately 100 kilometers from east to west and covering 1,400 square kilometers, the sound is home to marine industry and ports, and its shallow and brackish waters sustain a diverse array of marine life. Barrier islands along the southern edge of the sound separate the microtidal estuary from the Gulf of America. This protection from gulf wave action mediates current flow within the sound, resulting in predominantly fine-grained sediment deposition along the seafloor. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides insight on fluvial and tidal processes spanning the past 5,000 years. The report synthesizes existing research to provide a comprehensive overview of the sound geology, from Pleistocene origins to present-day morphology, and utilizes high-resolution single channel seismic profiles and sediment data to identify and map sedimentary deposits and morphologic features at and below the seafloor. Despite its ecological significance, the Mississippi Sound faces environmental challenges, including water-quality issues, habitat degradation, storm-induced erosion, and the ongoing threats of sea-level rise and environmental changes. This study uses the present-day understanding of the sound's geology to inform coastal management decisions, hazard assessment, and potential mineral resources.

Louisiana, Mississippi↗
USGS2025

Speleothem evidence for Late Miocene extreme Arctic amplification – An analogue for near-future anthropogenic climate change?

The Miocene provides an excellent climatic analogue for near-future runaway anthropogenic warming, with atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and global average temperatures similar to those projected for the coming century under extreme-emissions scenarios. However, the magnitude of Miocene Arctic warming remains unclear due to the scarcity of reliable proxy data. Here we use stable oxygen isotope and trace element analyses, alongside clumped isotope and fluid inclusion palaeothermometry of speleothems to reconstruct palaeo-environmental conditions near the Siberian Arctic coast during the Tortonian (8.68 ± 0.09 Ma ). Stable oxygen isotope records suggest warmer-than-present temperatures. This is supported by temperature estimates based on clumped isotopes and fluid inclusions giving mean annual air temperatures between + 6.6 and + 11.1 °C , compared with − 12.3 °C today. Trace elements records reveal a highly seasonal hydrological environment. Our estimate of > 18 °C of Arctic warming supports the wider consensus of a warmer-than-present Miocene and provides a rare palaeo-analogue for future Arctic amplification under high-emissions scenarios. The reconstructed increase in mean surface temperature far exceeds temperatures projected in fully coupled global climate models, even under extreme-emissions scenarios. Given that climate models have consistently underestimated the extent of recent Arctic amplification, our proxy data suggest Arctic warming may exceed current projections.

Lena River delta↗
USGS2024

Cross-fade sampling: Extremely efficient Bayesian inversion for a variety of geophysical problems

This paper introduces cross-fade sampling, a computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method that uses a semi-analytical approach to quickly solve Bayesian inverse problems that do not themselves have an analytical solution. Cross-fading is efficient in two ways. First, it requires fewer samples to obtain the same quality simulation of the target probability density function (PDF). Secondly, it is much faster to evaluate the posterior probability of each sample than conventional sampling methods for simulating Bayesian posterior PDFs. Conventional methods require evaluating the prior probability (which describes your a priori constraints) and data likelihood (which describes the fit between the observations and the predictions of the model) for each sample model. However, cross-fading does not require evaluating the data likelihood, meaning that ‘big data’ can be fit with zero additional computational cost. Further, the cross-fading approach can be used to calculate the marginal likelihood associated with a model design, facilitating model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. Topics covered in this paper include derivation of the cross-fade approach and how it can be used to simulate Bayesian posterior PDFs and compute the marginal likelihood, discussion of the class of problems to which cross-fading can be applied (with examples from earthquake statistics, earthquake ground motion modelling, volcanic eruption forecasting, and finite fault slip modelling), demonstration of efficiency relative to existing sampling methods and discussion of how cross-fading can be used to account for prediction errors (i.e. epistemic errors) as part of the geophysical inverse problem.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2024

Global geologic map of Europa

Discovered by Galileo Galilei more than 400 years ago and imaged in detail by the Voyager 2 Galileo spacecraft, Jupiter’s icy moon Europa has been a source of intrigue. A range of science investigations indicate that it contains the key ingredients for habitability, notably energy, chemistry, and liquid water. Europa’s surface is geologically complex and, based on the dearth of impact craters, interpreted to be as young as ~60 Ma. The array of geologic features that characterize the surface include extensive ridged plains, regions of broad disruption termed chaotic terrain, long, quasi-linear ridges that span thousands of kilometers, and bands as much as 60 kilometers wide and that extend 100s of kilometers. These features, along with other geophysical measurements, indicate the presence of a global briny liquid water ocean beneath the ice shell. It was not until the arrival of the Galileo spacecraft in 1995 that the true nature and level of complexity of the surface was revealed. Although image data returned by Galileo provided insight into the structure of a variety of regions, the entire satellite has yet to be observed at a regional scale (less than 250 meters per pixel) and the detailed geologic nature of much of its surface remains a mystery. Establishing the global context of the distribution and timing of Europan geologic units forms a basis to understand regional and local scale processes, serves as a tool for the planning of future missions, and most of all is essential to gaining insight into the potential habitability of this icy world.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2025

Preliminary depth to basement modeling at Salton Sea, California

The San Andreas Fault – Imperial Fault (SAF-IF) transtensional step-over zone along the southern margin of the Salton Sea hosts substantial geothermal production and lithium brine resources. Recent volcanism at the Salton Buttes and active seismicity along the SAFIF fault system highlight active tectonic and magmatic processes that pose natural hazards and may impact energy and mineral production. Characterizing the subsurface architecture and extent of concealed alteration associated with this tectono-magmatic system enhances understanding of these active processes, associated hazards, and resources. We have compiled a gravity database, consisting of new and re-processed existing data, from which we have constructed a new isostatic residual gravity anomaly map of the Salton trough. We have used this new gravity dataset together with a compilation of publicly available borehole data to develop new depth to basement inversion models for the region. These depth to basement models help to constrain basin geometries, inform alteration mapping, and reveal variations in basement rocks. Due to the concealed nature of the complex tectonic framework at the Salton trough, it is necessary to utilize geophysical methods for subsurface characterization. These new depth to basement models are a first step toward constructing 2D and 3D geophysical and geologic models of the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea geothermal area. This analysis complements other geophysical initiatives, including magnetotelluric (MT) modeling (Tokmakoff et al., 2024), magnetic mapping (Glen and Earney, 2023, 2024) and potential field modeling, and seismic studies focused on hazard and resource investigations in the Imperial Valley.

California↗
USGS2026

Rapid characterization of the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia earthquake

The 29 July 2025 M w 8.8 Kamchatka, Russia, earthquake was the sixth largest instrumentally recorded earthquake. This event was seismically well observed at regional and teleseismic distances, but publicly available near‐source data were sparse at the time of the event, presenting unique challenges for rapid source and impact characterization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center provides global real‐time monitoring for earthquakes, including rapid response information products that estimate source characteristics, shaking, and the resulting impacts. We describe the USGS rapid response earthquake information products following the Kamchatka event and discuss their implications for ongoing hazards in the region. We describe potential improvements to our response workflows motivated by this event, including more rapid constraints on source geometries and the automated selection of fault geometries for finite‐fault inversions. The rapid response products together support the interpretation of a unilateral southwestward rupture with significant slip on the southwestern end of the rupture extent. The M w 8.8–9.0 event in 1952, which ruptured a comparable extent of the Kuril–Kamchatka subduction interface, has many similarities to the 2025 rupture. This illustrates that slip deficits may remain following great earthquakes and highlights the usefulness of comparative studies between historic and modern events.

Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone↗