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Sampling for disease surveillance: Assessing effects on blue-winged teal survival and recovery

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in wild animals highlight the need for disease surveillance in wild birds to improve our understanding of their role as reservoirs and dispersers, and potential threats to domestic poultry and wild bird populations. Surveillance for avian influenza varies in its approach, objectives, and coordination with other monitoring efforts. For waterfowl, a common host to avian influenza viruses, banding represents a concerted effort of capturing and marking thousands of individuals annually to estimate survival and harvest rates, but users of these data have generally taken a conservative approach to remove any banded birds from analyses that had a sample taken for disease surveillance during capture. We tested for differences in survival and encounter probabilities of blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ) marked ( n = 21,702 teal) and sampled for disease surveillance ( n = 4,216) during the nonbreeding season in Louisiana, USA, from 2016 to 2023. Although we found no consistent effect of collecting biological samples on survival probability, including an additional test showing no detectable effects of sampling for disease surveillance with oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs versus sampling with swabs and a syringe-drawn blood sample, wide 95% credible intervals on the posterior survival estimates (mean 0.36 difference between upper and lower values across all year-sex-sampling groups; 0.44 for sampling type groups) indicated low statistical power to detect an effect. Seber recovery probability during the first interval following sampling was lower among birds sampled using swabs only, but we assume this stems from low sample sizes rather than an effect of collecting biological samples. Because recovery probabilities can vary as a function of individual covariates, we also examined direct recovery probabilities and observed no meaningful effect of disease surveillance sampling type but strong effects of capture date, suggesting the effect on Seber recovery probability may have been due to heterogeneity in exposure to natural and harvest mortality risks. Although we suggest that aligning disease surveillance sample collection efforts with landscape-scale waterfowl banding efforts may have little effect on observed demographic rates, additional studies with larger sample sizes are likely needed to provide the statistical power necessary to formally conclude no effect of biological sampling on survival probabilities.

Louisiana↗

Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world's coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea-level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea-level assessments, we find that non-linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea-level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ~20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea-level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marshes will likely submerge near the end of the 21st century. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processes to modify their physical environment.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Understanding metrics of stress in the context of invasion history: The case of the brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis)

Invasive species can exert rapid depletion of resources after introduction and, in turn, affect their own population density. Additionally, management actions can have direct and indirect effects on demography. Physiological variables can predict demographic change but are often restricted to snapshots-in-time and delayed confirmation of changes in population density reduces their utility. To evaluate the relationships between physiology and demography, we assessed metrics of individual and demographic stress (baseline and 1-h corticosterone (CORT), body condition and bacterial killing ability) in the invasive snake Boiga irregularis on Guam collected in intervals of 10–15 years. We also assessed potential discrepancies between different methods of measuring hormones [radioimmunoassay (RIA) versus enzyme immunoassay (EIA)]. The magnitude of difference between RIA and EIA was negligible and did not change gross interpretation of our results. We found that body condition was higher in recent samples (2003 and 2018) versus older (1992–93) samples. We found corresponding differences in baseline CORT, with higher baseline CORT in older, poorer body condition samples. Hormonal response to acute stress was higher in 2018 relative to 2003. We also found a weak relationship between circulating CORT and bacterial killing ability among 2018 samples, but the biological significance of the relationship is not clear. In an effort to develop hypotheses for future investigation of the links between physiology and demography in this and other systems, we discuss how the changes in CORT and body condition may reflect changes in population dynamics, resource availability or management pressure. Ultimately, we advocate for the synchronization of physiology and management studies to advance the field of applied conservation physiology.

Conservation Physiology↗

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

PLoS ONE↗

Fish Lake limnology and watershed aqueous geochemistry, Fish Lake Plateau, Utah

Fish Lake is located at 2696 m elevation on the Fish Lake Plateau with a bedrock geology of Oligocene to Pliocene age volcanics and Cretaceous to Eocene age sedimentary rocks. Lake bathymetry indicates a maximum depth of ~27 m and volume of 2.31 x 108 m3. The lake is dimictic with summer water column temperature declines of 13˚C between 7 to 15 m depth, whereas in spring and fall water column is isothermal. Numerous surface streams flow into the lake and there is one surface outflow stream, Lake Creek, which drains to the northeast into Johnson Valley Reservoir and the Fremont River, which is a tributary of the upper Colorado River. Surface inflow streams and spring waters are generally dilute and ionic compositions are consistent with bedrock geology. Spring and creek water oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope compositions indicate snowmelt is the predominant water source to the lake. High evaporative enrichment is indicated by lake water stable oxygen and hydrogen compositions and conservative ions, which suggest evaporative water loss equal or greater than inflow. The ionic and isotope data combined with preliminary discharge measurements provide a preliminary estimated lake-water residence time between approximately 15 and 30 years, although groundwater flux is currently unknown. Dissolved silica concentrations decline by two orders of magnitude between inflowing waters and summer lake waters, indicating substantial uptake by freshwater diatoms and high biological productivity. During summer, epilimnion pH values of 8.7 contribute to slight oversaturation with respect to calcite/aragonite, which suggests that precipitates could form in minor concentration. Below the thermocline pH is near neutral and carbonate mineral dissolution within the water column is likely.

Utah↗

The effects of flow extremes on native and non-native stream fishes in Puerto Rico

Globally, freshwater fishes are among the taxa most vulnerable to climate change but are generally understudied in tropical island ecosystems where climate change is predicted to alter the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme flow events. These changes may impact stream ecosystems and native and non-native biota in complex ways. We compiled an extensive dataset of fish assemblages collected at 119 sites across the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico from 2005 to 2015. We coupled these data with stream flow indices and dam height to understand associations between flow and fish assemblage structure. Sixteen percent of sites contained exclusively non-native species, 34% contained exclusively native species, and 50% contained native and non-native species. We built generalised linear models and conducted all subsets model selection to identify extreme flow variables explaining variation in native and non-native species richness and biomass. We also built models to determine the combined effects of extreme flows and the presence of non-native species on native species richness and biomass. Extreme flows and dam height were important in explaining variations in native and non-native species richness and biomass. Model averages showed native biomass decreased by 0.42 kg/ha with a 1-m increase in dam height, by 0.05 kg/ha with 1 cm/s increase in maximum mean daily high flow and by 3.45 kg/ha with each additional day increase in maximum high flow duration, and increased by 2.06 kg/ha with each additional day increase in mean high flow duration. Model averages predicted that non-native biomass increased by 1.32 kg/ha with a 1-m increase in dam height and by 0.01 kg/ha with each additional day increase in mean high flow duration, and decreased by 0.36 kg/ha with each additional day increase in maximum high flow duration. Model averages also predicted an increase in native and non-native biomass of 0.71 gage and 0.06 kg/ha, respectively, with each additional day increase in maximum low flow duration. The combined effects of non-native species presence and extreme flows changed the relationship between maximum high and low flow durations and native biomass. Model averages showed that native biomass increased by 1.83 kg/ha with each additional day increase in maximum high flow duration and decreased by 2.52 kg/ha with each additional day increase in maximum low flow duration when non-native species were present. Native fishes may be able to better cope with longer maximum durations of low flows than expected when non-native fishes are absent. In mixed fish assemblages, extended maximum durations of high flows may act as a control of non-native species and dampen their negative effect on native species, but longer maximum durations of low flows may heighten the negative effects of non-native fishes. Our results are informative for tropical island ecosystems globally and can guide the management and conservation of native fishes, particularly when faced with the dual threats of climate change and non-native species. Managers may consider increasing efforts to conserve native fishes in Caribbean rivers by maintaining connectivity and habitat complexity while preventing non-native species introductions.

Freshwater Biology↗

Comparison of beaver density estimates from aerial surveys of waterways versus transects

Historic beaver-sign (Castor canadensis) survey flights were often conducted over waterways to maximize beaver detections. However, densities determined from strip transect surveys are more useful to compare across and within study areas than waterway indices based on observations per distance flown because transects are more representative of the wider landscape. Yet, it is unknown if, and to what extent, aerial waterway surveys are reflective of transect densities. I conducted aerial surveys for active beaver sign each fall during 2015–2018 over two waterway routes and two corresponding strip-transect routes. The simple linear regression of transect densities on waterway densities (n=8) yielded a reasonable (R2=0.79) preliminary equation for converting historic waterway data to transect densities. Additionally, visual inspection indicated that converted waterway densities reasonably reflected the trend in transect densities in an area where the wider habitat was similar in terms of beaver harvest, land use, and proportion of water features. Although trend was well-reflected, individual waterway densities in this area were only 57-75% of transect densities. In other areas, where water features were limited, visual inspection suggested the trend of waterway densities was less reflective of transect density trend and individual waterway densities overestimated transect densities (up to 309%). Nevertheless, while transect densities are better for comparisons within and across study areas, waterway surveys are still important for timely and specific within-study area insights. This research provides useful benchmark examples of reliability regarding waterway observation indices converted to densities for conservation, research, and management of beaver and their ecosystems. Because these conclusions are based on a small sample, additional research is recommended to better define this relationship especially in areas with differing habitat, beaver harvest, land use patterns, etc.

Minnesota↗

Opportunities and challenges of macrogenetic studies

The rapidly emerging field of macrogenetics focuses on analysing publicly accessible genetic datasets from thousands of species to explore large-scale patterns and predictors of intraspecific genetic variation. Facilitated by advances in evolutionary biology, technology, data infrastructure, statistics and open science, macrogenetics addresses core evolutionary hypotheses (such as disentangling environmental and life-history effects on genetic variation) with a global focus. Yet, there are important, often overlooked, limitations to this approach and best practices need to be considered and adopted if macrogenetics is to continue its exciting trajectory and reach its full potential in fields such as biodiversity monitoring and conservation. Here, we review the history of this rapidly growing field, highlight knowledge gaps and future directions, and provide guidelines for further research.

Nature Reviews Genetics↗

Complexity versus certainty in understanding species’ declines

Aim Our understanding of and ability to predict species declines is limited, despite decades of study. We sought to expand our understanding of species declines within a regional landscape by testing models using both traditional hypotheses and those derived from a complex adaptive systems approach. Location Our study area was the dry mixed grassland of south-eastern Alberta, Canada, one of the largest remnants of native grassland in North America, and the adjacent grassland in Saskatchewan. Methods We used the breeding birds of the grassland to test the relationship between species declines and a suite of traits associated with decline (such as size, specialization and rarity, as well as distance to edge of a discontinuity, and edge of geographic range) in a stepwise regression with AICc values and bootstrapping via model averaging, followed by a refit procedure to obtain model-averaged parameter estimates. We used both provincial government and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) classifications of decline. We also modelled degree of decline in the Alberta and Saskatchewan grasslands, which differ in amount of habitat remaining, to test whether severity of decline was explained by the same traits as species decline/not- decline. Results We found that the model for government-defined decline fulfilled government expectations that species' extinction risk is a function of being large, specialized, rare and carnivorous, whereas the model for BBS-defined decline suggested that the biological reality of decline is more complex, requiring the need to explicitly model scale-specific patterns. Furthermore, species decline/not- decline was explained by different traits than those that fit degree of decline, though complex systems- derived traits featured in both sets of models. Main conclusions Traditional approaches to predict species declines (e.g. government processes or IUCN Red Lists), may be too simplistic and may therefore misguide management and conservation. Using complex systems approaches that account for scale-specific patterns and processes have the potential to overcome these limitations.

Diversity and Distributions↗

An animal location-based habitat suitability model for bighorn sheep and wild horses in Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area and the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, Montana, and Wyoming

The purpose of this habitat suitability model is to provide a tool that will help managers and researchers better manage bighorn sheep and wild horses in the Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) and Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range (PMWHR). A concern in the management of the Pryor Mountain wild horse population is whether or not the wild horses compete with bighorn sheep for available forage or available space. Two studies have been conducted that have shown no obvious, convincing competition between the two species. A study of diets and habitat-use of both species revealed substantial diet overlap only during some seasons, but there were considerable spatial and habitat separations between wild horses and bighorns during all seasons (Kissell and others, 1996). This empirical data was then used in a modeling exercise that predicted that neither the current (about 160 horses at the time of the analysis) nor larger numbers of wild horses on the area (e.g., about 200 horses) would result in reduced numbers or condition of bighorn sheep (Coughenour 1999). But competition is a very complex biological process to document. Bighorns might have already been spatially avoiding wild horses when these studies were conducted. A second concern for managers is that earlier studies suggest both species are not using many areas of the range that appear to be suitable (Gudorf and others, 1996; Kissell and others, 1996). A primary goal for the management of both species is to increase their numbers for purposes of genetic conservation and viability. The bighorn sheep population declined during the mid-1990’s from a peak of about 211 animals to ~ 100 animals at present. Absolute minimum goals for genetic viability in the bighorn sheep herd (genetic effective population size of N >50) suggest at least 150 animals should be present, while studies of persistence suggest populations of 250+ are e more likely to recover rapidly and persist should the population experience an epizootic die-off (Singer and others, 2001). Since all bighorn sheep populations are potentially vulnerable to disease epizootics, managing for larger populations of 200–300 animals appears to increase the potential for long-term persistence (Berger, 1990; Singer and others, 2001). Wild horses are not prone to rapid disease die-offs. However, minimum goals for genetic viability in the Pryor Mountain wild horses ( Ne > 50) require that at least 160 animals be present on the range (Singer and others, 2000). Since the Ne > 50 goal is set for the breeding of domestic animals, and since the vagaries of drought, severe winters, predation, and other stochastic events cause stress in wild animals, larger goals for Ne (e.g. Ne > 100) for wild horses are even more desirable (USDI, BLM, 1999; Gross, 2000). Expanding the area of the wild horse range is one option, but the prospects for expanding the range do not appear to be great (L. Coates-Markle, BLM, oral comm.). A second option would be to increase the amount of useable habitat for horses on the existing range. One goal of this modeling effort was to use GIS-based habitat analyses to determine the reason wild horses are not using some areas of the range, and to explore the potential for making some of these areas useable. The National Park Service (NPS) has shown considerable interest in management actions within BICA that will increase the range, useable habitat, and population size of bighorn sheep. There has also been interest expressed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and wild horse advocates to improve the useable habitat for wild horses and to possibly increase the size of the horse range.

Report↗

National parks: Chapter 4

Covering about 4% of the United States, the 338,000 km² of protected areas in the National Park System contain representative landscapes of all of the nation’s biomes and ecosystems. The U.S. National Park Service Organic Act established the National Park System in 1916 “to conserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wild life therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.”1 Approximately 270 national park system areas contain significant natural resources. Current National Park Service policy for natural resource parks calls for management to preserve fundamental physical and biological processes, as well as individual species, features, and plant and animal communities. Parks with managed natural resources range from large intact (or nearly intact) ecosystems with a full complement of native species— including top predators—to those diminished by disturbances such as within-park or surrounding-area legacies of land use, invasive species, pollution, or regional manipulation of resources. The significance of national parks as representatives of naturally functioning ecosystems and as refugia for natural processes and biodiversity increases as surrounding landscapes become increasingly altered by human activities.

Synthesis and Assessment Product↗

Conservation status assessment of an endangered insular raptor: the Sharp-shinned Hawk in Puerto Rico

Sharp‐shinned Hawks ( Accipiter striatus ) are forest raptors that are widely distributed in the Americas. A subspecies endemic to Puerto Rico ( A. s. venator ) is listed as endangered and restricted to mature and old secondary montane forests and shade coffee plantations. However, recent information about the population status and distribution of Puerto Rican Sharp‐shinned Hawks is lacking. We developed a spatial geographic distribution model for Sharp‐shinned Hawks in Puerto Rico from 33 locations collected during four breeding seasons (2013–2016) using biologically relevant landscape variables (aspect, canopy closure, elevation, rainfall, slope, and terrain roughness). Elevation accounted for 89.8% of the model fit and predicted that the greatest probability of occurrence of Sharp‐shinned Hawks in Puerto Rico (> 60%) was at elevations above 900 m. Based on our model, an estimated 56.1 km 2 of habitat exists in Puerto Rico with a high probability of occurrence. This total represents ~0.6% of the island's area. Public lands included 43.8% of habitat with high probability of occurrence (24.6 km 2 ), 96% of which was located within four protected areas. Our results suggest that Sharp‐shinned Hawks are rare in Puerto Rico and restricted to the higher elevations of the Cordillera Central. Additional research is needed to identify and address ecological limiting factors, and recovery actions are needed to avoid the extinction of this endemic island raptor.

Puerto Rico↗

The state of the bats in North America

The world's rich diversity of bats supports healthy ecosystems and important ecosystem services. Maintaining healthy biological systems requires prompt identification of threats to biodiversity and immediate action to protect species, which for wide-ranging bat species that span geopolitical boundaries warrants international coordination. Anthropogenic forces drive the threats to bats throughout North America and the world. We conducted an international expert elicitation to assess the status of 153 bat species in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. We used expert assessment to determine the conservation status, highest impact threats, and recent population trends for these species. We found that 53% of North American bat species have moderate to very high risk of extinction in the next 15 years. The highest impact threats varied with species and country, and four IUCN threat categories had the greatest overall impacts: Climate Change, Problematic Species (including disease), Agriculture, and Energy Production. Experts estimated that 90% of species assessed had decreasing population trends over the past 15 years, demonstrating the need for conservation action. Although the state of North American bats is concerning, we identify threats that can be addressed through internationally collaborative, proactive, and protective actions to support the recovery and resilience of North American bat species.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences↗

Dissimilatory reduction of selenate and arsenate in nature

This chapter discusses the biogeochemical reduction of selenate (Se(VI)) and arsenate (As(V)) when they enter anoxic environments and are used as electron acceptors for the oxidation of organic matter. These reductions are of a dissimilative nature and support the anaerobic growth of selected bacteria which conserve energy from this process. The chapter summarizes what is known about the bacteria's taxonomy, physiology, and biochemistry. Reduction to the solid, relatively unreactive Se(0) represents a mechanism for the removal of toxic Se(VI) and Se(IV) from natural waters. The environmental ramifications of these issues are also discussed in the chapter. The number of bacterial species known to respire selenate and arsenate continues to increase. The biological reduction of selenate and arsenate occurs for a number of reasons. In general, these are assimilation, regulation of reducing equivalents, detoxification, and dissimilation. Each is discussed in detail in the chapter. The realization that arsenate and selenate are indeed suitable electron acceptors and are readily available in both natural and contaminated environments suggests that even more unrelated species will be discovered. The initial biochemical studies also suggest that there may be different pathways for selenate and arsenate reduction, with specific terminal reductases and cytochromes.

Book chapter↗

Understanding the influence of nutrients on stream ecosystems in agricultural landscapes

Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. In 1991, Congress established the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) to address where, when, why, and how the Nation’s water quality has changed, or is likely to change in the future, in response to human activities and natural factors. Since then, NAWQA has been a leading source of scientific data and knowledge used by national, regional, State, and local agencies to develop science-based policies and management strategies to improve and protect water resources used for drinking water, recreation, irrigation, energy development, and ecosystem needs ( https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/applications/ ). Plans for the third decade of NAWQA (2013–23) address priority water-quality issues and science needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders, such as the Advisory Committee on Water Information and the National Research Council, and are designed to meet increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing needs for clean water, and changing land-use and weather patterns. Excess nutrients are a pervasive problem of streams, lakes, and coastal waters. The current report, “The Quality of Our Nation’s Waters—Understanding the Effects of Nutrients on Stream Ecosystems in Agricultural Landscapes,” presents a summary of results from USGS investigations conducted from 2003 to 2011 on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological components of agricultural streams. This study included collecting data from 232 sites distributed among eight study areas. This report summarizes findings on processes that influence nutrients and how nutrient enrichment can alter biological communities in agricultural streams. These findings are relevant to local, State, regional, and national decision-makers involved in efforts to (1) better understand the influence of nutrients on agricultural streams, (2) develop nutrient criteria for streams and rivers, (3) reduce nutrients to streams and downstream receiving waters, and (4) develop tools for tracking nutrient and biological conditions following nutrient reduction strategies. All NAWQA reports are available online at https://water.usgs.gov/nawqa/bib/ . We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water-resource needs and will foster increased citizen awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Central Columbia-Yakima River Basins, Great River ↗

Coastal Prairie Restoration Information System: Version 1 (Louisiana)

The Coastal Prairie Restoration Information System (CPR) is a Microsoft Access database that allows users to query and view data about Louisiana coastal prairie species. Less than 0.1% of Louisiana's coastal prairie vegetation remains in a relatively undisturbed condition. Encompassing as much as 1 million hectares of land, coastal prairie is a hybrid of coastal wetlands and tall grass prairie. Over 550 plant species have been identified in Louisiana's coastal prairies to date. Efforts to conserve and restore this endangered ecosystem are limited by the ability of workers to identify and access knowledge about this diverse group of plants. In this database, a variety of data are provided for each of 650 coastal prairie species in Louisiana. The database was developed at the U.S. Geological Survey National Wetlands Research Center by Larry Allain, with software development by Myra Silva. Additional funding was provided by the biology department of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (ULL), the ULL Center for Environmental and Ecological Technology, and the National Science Foundation.

Data Series↗

Changes in phosphorus and suspended solids loading in the Fox River, northeastern Wisconsin, 1989–2021

The entire Lower Fox River and inner bay of Green Bay, in northeastern Wisconsin, have been listed as impaired by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) for low dissolved oxygen and degraded habitat, with total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations listed as the likely causes of these impairments. To restore the Fox River and Green Bay, total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) were developed for TP and TSS, and actions were taken throughout the Fox River Basin to improve water quality. In this study, we estimated concentrations and loads of TP, dissolved phosphorus (DP), and TSS at the Lake Winnebago outlet, De Pere, and the mouth of the Fox River from water year (WY) 1989 to WY 2021; described changes in concentrations and loads through time during this period; and compared the concentrations and loads for the most recent 5-year period (WYs 2017–21) with the WDNR criteria for TP impairment and the TMDL loading goals. TP, DP, TSS, and total suspended sediment concentration data were obtained from NEW Water (the brand of the Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District), the WDNR, and the U.S. Geological Survey and combined into one dataset. All the TSS and total suspended sediment data were used together with no adjustment factor and are referred to as simply “TSS.” During WYs 1989–2021, mean annual TP concentrations increased from 0.089 milligram per liter (mg/L) at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.128 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River, and concentrations decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The most recent (WYs 2017–21) median May–October TP concentrations were just less than the 0.1-mg/L WDNR criterion for TP impairment at the two upstream sites (Lake Winnebago outlet and De Pere) but were slightly greater than the criterion for impairment at the mouth of the Fox River. Mean annual DP concentrations increased from 0.024 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.036 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River. DP concentrations increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 at the Lake Winnebago outlet but not at the other sites. Mean annual TSS concentrations increased from 13.5 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 23.9 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River and have decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The recent median May–October TSS concentrations were less than the 20-mg/L WDNR criterion for impairment at all three sites. Streamflow and TP, DP, and TSS loads increased from the Lake Winnebago outlet to the mouth of the Fox River (TP loads increased from 360,000 to 557,000 kilograms per year [kg/yr], DP loads increased from 114,000 to 162,000 kg/yr, and TSS loads increased from 60,400 metric tons per year [t/yr] to 122,600 t/yr). At the Lake Winnebago outlet, DP concentrations and TP and DP loads increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 because of an increase in DP concentrations in Lake Winnebago resulting from the lake becoming nitrogen limited as a result of biological processes not consuming the DP in the lake and an increase in streamflow leaving the lake. Although TP and TSS concentrations decreased at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River, there was little change in the loading because of an increase in flow. Flow-normalized TP and TSS loads at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River decreased possibly because of implementation of agricultural conservation management practices, reductions in point-source discharges in its drainage basin, and deposition of sediment and phosphorus in recently dredged areas of the Lower Fox River. Additional studies are needed to determine the relative importance of each of these actions and whether the decrease in concentrations and flow-normalized loads will continue to be observed in the Fox River.

Wisconsin↗

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water interpolation model, version 3

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that estimate daily water-level data at ungaged locations, and applications that generate derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the Greater Everglades landscape. Version 3 (V3) of the EDEN interpolation surface-water model is the most recent update, replacing the version 2 (V2) model released in 2011. The primary revision for the V3 model is the switch to the R programming language to create a more efficient and portable EDEN code relative to V2, without reliance on proprietary software. Using R, the interpolation script runs over 10 times faster and is more easily updated, for example, to accommodate changes in the gage network or to incorporate R software updates. Additional revisions made for the V3 model include updates to the interpolation model, the gage network, and groundwater-level estimations. The EDEN model domain in the Greater Everglades and Big Cypress National Preserve is divided into subdomains that are based on hydrologic boundaries. In the V3 model, the number of subdomains was increased from five to eight, which allows hydrologic boundaries, such as levees and canals, to be better represented in the interpolation scheme. Five pseudogages were added to constrain the water-level surface at subdomain boundaries. Changes made to the water-level gage network between the implementation of the V2 and V3 models are incorporated, and groundwater-level estimations are added, which are important information for hydrologic and ecological studies. Summary model performance statistics indicate similar accuracy in water-level surfaces generated by the V3 and V2 models, with a root mean square error of 4.78 centimeters for both interpolation models against independent water-level measurements. Providing stability and continuity for the EDEN user community, the V3 model closely replicates the V2 model, with a root mean square difference of 3.87 centimeters for interpolated surfaces from April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2018. The additional groundwater levels provide a realistic estimate of the saturated groundwater surface continuous with the surface-water surface for Water Conservation Areas 2A and 2B from 2000 to 2011. This continuous surface is a more accurate estimation of the spatial distribution of water in the hydrologic system than before, providing needed information for ecological studies in areas where depth to water table affects habitats. Development of the EDEN V3 model advances the tools available to scientists and resource managers for guiding large-scale field operations, describing hydrologic changes, and supporting biological and ecological assessments.

Florida↗