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USGS2019

Improving ecological restoration to curb biotic invasion - A practical guide

Common practices for invasive species control and management include physical, chemical, and biological approaches. The first two approaches have clear limitations and may lead to unintended (negative) consequences, unless carefully planned and implemented. For example, physical removal rarely completely eradicates the targeted invasive species and can cause disturbances that facilitate new invasions by nonnative species from nearby habitats. Chemical treatments can harm native, and especially rare, species through unanticipated side effects. Biological methods may be classified as biocontrol and the ecological approach. Similar to physical and chemical methods, biocontrol also has limitations and sometimes leads to unintended consequences. Therefore, a relatively safer and more practical choice may be the ecological approach, which has two major components: (1) restoration of native species and (2) biomass manipulation of the restored community, such as selective grazing or prescribed burning (to achieve and maintain viable population sizes). Restoration requires well-planned and implemented planting designs that consider alpha-, beta-, and gamma-diversity and the abundance of native and invasive component species at local, landscape, and regional levels. Given the extensive destruction or degradation of natural habitats around the world, restoration could be most effective for enhancing ecosystem resilience and resistance to biotic invasions. At the same time, ecosystems in human-dominated landscapes, especially those newly restored, require close monitoring and careful intervention (e.g., through biomass manipulation), especially when successional trajectories are not moving as intended. Biomass management frequently uses prescribed burning, grazing, harvesting, and thinning to maintain overall ecosystem health and sustainability. Thus, the resulting optimal, balanced, and relatively stable ecological conditions could more effectively limit the spread and establishment of invasive species. Here we review the literature (especially within the last decade) on ecological approaches that involve biodiversity, biomass, and productivity, three key community/ecosystem variables that reciprocally influence one another. We focus on the common and most feasible ecological practices that can aid in resisting new invasions and/or suppressing the dominance of existing invasive species. We contend that, because of the strong influences from neighboring areas (i.e., as exotic species pools), local restoration and management efforts in the future need to consider the regional context and projected climate changes.

Invasive Plant Science and Management↗

USGS2020

Effects of climate and land-use changes on fish catches across lakes at a global scale

Globally, our knowledge on lake fisheries is still limited despite their importance to food security and livelihoods. Here we show that fish catches can respond either positively or negatively to climate and land-use changes, by analyzing time-series data (1970–2014) for 31 lakes across five continents. We find that effects of a climate or land-use driver (e.g., air temperature) on lake environment could be relatively consistent in directions, but consequential changes in a lake-environmental factor (e.g., water temperature) could result in either increases or decreases in fish catch in a given lake. A subsequent correlation analysis indicates that reductions in fish catch was less likely to occur in response to potential climate and land-use changes if a lake is located in a region with greater access to clean water. This finding suggests that adequate investments for water-quality protection and water-use efficiency can provide additional benefits to lake fisheries and food security.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2002

Studying the effects of land use on sediment loads, Little Missouri National Grasslands, North Dakota

The Little Missouri National Grasslands in North Dakota were established in 1960 and are publicly owned lands administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. The grasslands are not solid blocks of National Forest Systems lands but are lands intermingled with other Federal, State, and privately-owned lands. The mixed-ownership pattern creates a unique environmental management arrangement within each grasslands area. The USDA Forest Service needs to determine how changes in land use affect loss of sediment from the grasslands, especially during periods of high runoff or after a grassland fire. Excessive sediment loss has the potential to destabilize hillslopes and channels by increasing runoff potential, by prohibiting natural revegetation, by changing animal habitation patterns, and by impacting areas farther downslope and downstream of affected areas. On October 31, 1999, two major grass-land fires occurred in the Little Missouri National Grasslands area. The Squaw Gap Fire affected 51,627 acres and the Rough Creek Fire affected 7,979 acres. Runoff caused substantial erosion when many road ditches and culverts were filled with sediment and some roads were washed out. In order to implement the best management practices within the Little Missouri National Grasslands, the USDA Forest Service will need sediment information related to land-use changes such as burned and unburned areas and grazed and ungrazed areas. The Little Missouri National Grasslands are located along the Little Missouri River in western North Dakota. The Grasslands are comprised of 1,028,000 acres predominantly in an area of rolling hills, sparsely covered buttes, coulees, woody draws, and badlands. Most of the area is used as rangeland; but, some of the area is cultivated or used for oil and gas development. The Grasslands have semiarid climate with short, warm summers and long, cold winters. The Grasslands receive an average annual precipitation of about 13 to 15 inches, which generally occurs from April through June. Runoff is produced by snowmelt during the spring or by rainfall over individual watersheds during the warmer months. Temperatures have ranged from about -30 degrees Fahrenheit during the winter to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit during the summer. The average growing season is about 125 days.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

The role of paleoecology in restoration and resource management—The past as a guide to future decision-making: Review and example from the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, U.S.A

Resource managers around the world are challenged to develop feasible plans for sustainable conservation and/or restoration of the lands, waters, and wildlife they administer—a challenge made greater by anticipated climate change and associated effects over the next century. Increasingly, paleoecologic and geologic archives are being used to extend the period of record of observed data and provide information on centennial to millennial scale responses to long-term drivers of ecosystem change. The development of paleoecology from an emerging field investigating past environments to a highly relevant applied science is reviewed and general examples of the application of paleoecologic research to resource management questions in diverse habitats and regions are provided. Specific examples of the application of paleoecologic research to the restoration of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem of south Florida (U.S.A) are presented. Conducting valuable scientific research that would benefit resource management decisions, however, is not enough. Scientists and resource managers need to be engaged in collaborative discussions from the beginning of the research process to ensure that management questions are being addressed and that the science reaches the people who will benefit from the information. Paleoecology and related disciplines provide an understanding of how ecosystems and individual species function and change over time in response to both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Information on pre-anthropogenic baseline conditions is provided by paleoecologic research, but it is the detection of long-term trends and cycles that allow resource managers to set realistic goals and targets by moving away from the fixed-point baseline concept to one of dynamic landscapes that anticipates and incorporates an expectation of change into decision-making.

Florida↗

USGS2010

Modeling amphibian energetics, habitat suitability, and movements of western toads, Anaxyrus (=Bufo) boreas, across present and future landscapes

Effective conservation of amphibian populations requires the prediction of how amphibians use and move through a landscape. Amphibians are closely coupled to their physical environment. Thus an approach that uses the physiological attributes of amphibians, together with knowledge of their natural history, should be helpful. We used Niche Mapper™ to model the known movements and habitat use patterns of a population of Western toads ( Anaxyrus (= Bufo ) boreas ) occupying forested habitats in southeastern Idaho. Niche Mapper uses first principles of environmental biophysics to combine features of topography, climate, land cover, and animal features to model microclimates and animal physiology and behavior across landscapes. Niche Mapper reproduced core body temperatures ( T c ) and evaporation rates of live toads with average errors of 1.6 ± 0.4 °C and 0.8 ± 0.2 g/h, respectively. For four different habitat types, it reproduced similar mid-summer daily temperature patterns as those measured in the field and calculated evaporation rates (g/h) with an average error rate of 7.2 ± 5.5%. Sensitivity analyses indicate these errors do not significantly affect estimates of food consumption or activity. Using Niche Mapper we predicted the daily habitats used by free-ranging toads; our accuracy for female toads was greater than for male toads (74.2 ± 6.8% and 53.6 ± 15.8%, respectively), reflecting the stronger patterns of habitat selection among females. Using these changing to construct a cost surface, we also reconstructed movement paths that were consistent with field observations. The effect of climate warming on toads depends on the interaction of temperature and atmospheric moisture. If climate change occurs as predicted, results from Niche Mapper suggests that climate warming will increase the physiological cost of landscapes thereby limiting the activity for toads in different habitats.

Idaho↗

USGS2024

Combining terrestrial lidar with single line transects to investigate geomorphic change: A case study on the Upper Verde River, Arizona

The Upper Verde River in northern Arizona, USA is a vital resource for the wildlife and humans that rely on its waters. We characterize the riparian corridor topography using terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) data from 2021 to 2022. We also quantify geomorphic changes associated with human and climate-driven alterations in river flow and vegetation changes by combining the contemporary lidar surveys with legacy measurements from single line geomorphology transects measured by the United States Forest Service (USFS) in 2009. Seventeen plots along the Upper Verde River were surveyed with the TLS and the data were coregistered within individual plots with a Root Mean Square Error of <0.03 m among scan positions. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) were derived for each plot from the TLS data at 10 cm resolution and compared to the 2009 USFS cross-section data to quantify elevation changes. In areas with statistically significant change, we detected maximum changes in elevation due to erosion and deposition of −0.37 m and + 0.97 m, respectively. Topographic changes over the 13-year period were predominately aggradation and associated with sediment deposition, which we hypothesize might have resulted from altered river flow and vegetation encroachment. This study also demonstrates a quantitative and statistical methodology to fuse traditional single line cross-section data with contemporary lidar data to quantify geomorphic change. The novel approach demonstrated here is broadly applicable to natural resource managers for integrating and contextualizing legacy topographic data for understanding past, present, and future landscape and habitat changes.

Arizona↗

USGS2013

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2004

Fire regimes and vegetation responses in two Mediterranean-climate regions

Wildfires resulting from thunderstorms are common in some Mediterranean-climate regions, such as southern California, and have played an important role in the ecology and evolution of the flora. Mediterranean-climate regions are major centers for human population and thus anthropogenic impacts on fire regimes may have important consequences on these plant formations. However, changes in fire regimes may have different impacts on Mediterranean type-ecosystems depending on the capability of plants to respond to such perturbations. Therefore, we compare here fire regimes and vegetation responses of two Mediterranean-climate regions which differ in wildfire regimes and history of human occupation, the central zone of Chile (matorral) and the southern area of California in United States (chaparral). In Chile almost all fires result from anthropogenic activities, whereas lightning fires resulting from thunderstorms are frequent in California. In both regions fires are more frequent in summer, due to high accumulation of dry plant biomass for ignition. Humans have markedly increased fires frequency both in the matorral and chaparral, but extent of burned areas has remained unaltered, probably due to better fire suppression actions and a decline in the built-up of dry plant fuel associated to increased landscape fragmentation with less flammable agricultural and urban developments. As expected, post-fire plant regeneration responses differs between the matorral and chaparral due to differences in the importance of wildfires as a natural evolutionary force in the system. Plants from the chaparral show a broader range of post-fire regeneration responses than the matorral, from basal resprouting, to lignotuber resprouting, and to fire-stimulated germination and flowering with fire-specific clues such as heat shock, chemicals from smoke or charred wood. Plants from the matorral have some resprouting capabilities after fire, but these probably evolved from other environmental pressures, such as severe and long summer droughts, herbivory, and volcanism. Although both Mediterranean-type ecosystems have shown to be resilient to anthropogenic fires, increasing fire frequency may be an important factor that needs to be considered as it may result in strong negative effects on plant successional trends and on plant diversity.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2002

Physical data of soil profiles formed on late Quaternary marine terraces near Santa Cruz, California

The marine terraces in and around Santa Cruz, California, represent a set of well-preserved terraces formed as a product of geology, sea level, and climate. A marine terrace begins as a wave cut platform. Eustatic sea level changes, seacliff erosion, and tectonic uplift work together to generate marine terraces. "When a wave-cut platform is raised (due to tectonic activity) above sea level and cliffed by wave action it becomes a marine terrace" (Bradley, 1957, p. 424). During glacial periods, eustatic sea level is estimated to have dropped by 150 meters (Fairbanks, 1989). Cliff retreat measured from aerial photographs between 1930 and 1980 vary from 0.0 to 0.2 m yr–1 (Best and Griggs, 1991). Estimates of uplift rates along the Santa Cruz coastline vary from 0.10 to 0.48 m kyr–1 (Bradley and Griggs, 1976; Weber and others, 1999). Uplift mechanisms include coseismic uplift associated both with a reverse component of slip on the steeply SW dipping Loma Prieta fault in the restraining bend of the San Andreas Fault and a small component of reverse slip on the steeply SE dipping San Gregorio fault (Anderson and Menking 1994). Previous work studying physical properties on these terraces include Pinney and others (in press) and Aniku (1986) and Bowman and Estrada (1980). Sedimentary deposits of the marine terraces are a mixture of terrestrial and marine sediments but generally consist of a sheet of marine deposits overlying the old platform and a wedge of nonmarine deposits banked against the old sea cliff (Bradley, 1957). Bedrock underlying the terraces in the Santa Cruz area is generally either Santa Margarita Sandstone or Santa Cruz Mudstone. The Santa Margarita Sandstone represents an upper Miocene, transgressive, tidally dominated marine-shelf deposit with crossbedded sets of sand and gravel and horizontally stratified and bioturbated invertebrate-fossils beds (Phillips, 1990). The siliceous Santa Cruz Mudstone, of late Miocene age, conformably overlies the Santa Margarita Sandstone. The Santa Cruz Mudstone is a thin to medium-bedded siliceous mudstone with nonsiliceous mudstone and siltstone and minor amounts of sandstone. The siliceous nature implies organic deposition in a quiescent, deep-water environment. Bedrock is mantled by 1–4 meters of medium to coarse-grained regressive beach sediment and fluvial deposits from the Ben Lomond Mountains. Terrace age increases with elevation above sea level, and weathering of primary minerals increases with age. The suite of soils formed on the terraces is referred to as a soil chronosequence. Soil chronosequences, important tools in characterizing natural weathering rates, are defined as a group of soils that differ in age and therefore in duration of weathering but have similar climatic conditions, vegetation, geomorphic position, and parent material (Jenny, 1941; Birkland, 1999). Soils are frequently useful indicators of geomorphic age (Muhs, 1982; Switzer and others, 1988) and are a function of pedogenic and/or eolian processes. Some aspects of soil development can be episodic but when viewed on large time scales can be perceived as continuous (Switzer and others, 1988). The age of the soil may be constrained by the age of the deposit, since soil formation generally commences when deposition has ceased (Birkland, 1999). Dating of the terraces provides an unprecedented opportunity to study weathering and soil-formation rates (Perg and others, 2001; Hanks and others, 1984; Bradley and Griggs, 1976; Bradley and Addicott, 1968; Bradley, 1956). Ages of the terraces recently dated by cosmogenic radionuclide are, starting with the youngest, 65, 92, 137, 139, and 226 k.y. (Perg and others, 2001). However, these ages are much younger than recent radiometric dates on mollusk shells (Muhs, U.S. Geological Survey, personal communication, 2002; Bradley and Addicott, 1968). For this study, soils were sampled on five terraces. Terrace one in the Lighthouse Field along Westcliff in Santa Cruz was the last site selected, and this report contains minimal data on this terrace. Sites on the second, third, and fourth terraces are located in Wilder Ranch, Santa Cruz, California. Site five is on private property north of Wilder Ranch. Careful consideration was taken in selecting field sites, choosing locations in a topographically flat area to avoid effects of erosion, and trying to keep parent material similar. This report contains physical properties of the soil profiles on four of the five marine terraces near Santa Cruz, California, excluding the youngest terrace in all tables except 6 and 7. Data includes field descriptions, bulk density, grain size analyses, weight percent magnetic fraction, and the soil development index. Soil properties are important when trying to understand the chemistry of a given profile or when comparing profiles. Grain size constrains the movement of water in a profile, thus controlling movement of chemicals and weathering rates. Bulk density is a useful property to calculate chemical inventory. Quantifying the magnetic fraction aids in understanding the Fe inventory for these soils. The soil development index is a semi-quantitative way to define the degree of development of a soil profile. This is a useful way to compare development of profiles for this chronosequence or compare the Santa Cruz terraces to a suit of other terraces or another chronosequence.

California↗

USGS2005

Evidence for competitive dominance of Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) over other Salmonids in the North Pacific Ocean

Relatively little is known about fish species interactions in offshore areas of the world's oceans because adequate experimental controls are typically unavailable in such vast areas. However, pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) are numerous and have an alternating-year pattern of abundance that provides a natural experimental control to test for interspecific competition in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. Since a number of studies have recently examined pink salmon interactions with other salmon, we reviewed them in an effort to describe patterns of interaction over broad regions of the ocean. Research consistently indicated that pink salmon significantly altered prey abundance of other salmon species (e.g., zooplankton, squid), leading to altered diet, reduced total prey consumption and growth, delayed maturation, and reduced survival, depending on species and locale. Reduced survival was observed in chum salmon (O. keta) and Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) originating from Puget Sound and in Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (O. nerka). Growth of pink salmon was not measurably affected by other salmon species, but their growth was sometimes inversely related to their own abundance. In all marine studies, pink salmon affected other species through exploitation of prey resources rather than interference. Interspecific competition was observed in nearshore and offshore waters of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, and one study documented competition between species originating from different continents. Climate change had variable effects on competition. In the North Pacific Ocean, competition was observed before and after the ocean regime shift in 1977 that significantly altered abundances of many marine species, whereas a study in the Pacific Northwest reported a shift from predation- to competition-based mortality in response to the 1982/1983 El Nino. Key traits of pink salmon that influenced competition with other salmonids included great abundance, high consumption rates and rapid growth, degree of diet overlap or consumption of lower trophic level prey, and early migration timing into the ocean. The consistent pattern of findings from multiple regions of the ocean provides evidence that interspecific competition can significantly influence salmon population dynamics and that pink salmon may be the dominant competitor among salmon in marine waters. ?? Springer 2005.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2016

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2018

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2025

Advancing the science of headwater streamflow for global water protection

The protection of headwater streams faces increasing challenges, exemplified by limited global recognition of headwater contributions to watershed resiliency and a recent US Supreme Court decision limiting federal safeguards. Despite accounting for ~77% of global river networks, the lack of adequate headwaters protections is caused, in part, by limited information on their extent and functions—in particular, their flow regimes, which form the foundation for decision-making regarding their protection. Yet, headwater streamflow is challenging to comprehensively measure and model; it is highly variable and sensitive to changes in land use, management and climate. Modelling headwater streamflow to quantify its cumulative contributions to downstream river networks requires an integrative understanding across local hillslope and channel (that is, watershed) processes. Here we begin to address this challenge by proposing a consistent definition for headwater systems and streams, evaluating how headwater streamflow is characterized and advocating for closing gaps in headwater streamflow data collection, modelling and synthesis.

Nature Water↗

USGS2020

Stress gradients interact with disturbance to reveal alternative states in salt marsh: Multivariate resilience at the landscape scale

Stress gradients influence many ecosystem processes and properties, including ecosystem recovery from and resistance to disturbance. While recent analytical approaches have advanced multivariate metrics of ecosystem resilience that allow quantification of conceptual resilience models and identification of thresholds of state change, these approaches are not often translated to landscape scales. Using natural and restored salt marshes in Louisiana, USA, we quantified plant community recovery and resistance metrics along flooding stress gradients. n ‐dimensional hypervolumes of plant community biomass and structure were simulated using field data collected from disturbance‐recovery experiments. The relationships between multivariate resilience metrics and flooding stress gradients were then mapped at community‐ and landscape‐relevant scales by scaling with airborne‐derived data across the region. Greater pre‐disturbance abiotic stress decreased live belowground, but not aboveground, biomass, and ultimately led to lower post‐disturbance total recovery, recovery rates, and resistance of plant communities. Vegetated plots flooded >52% of the time transitioned to an alternative, unvegetated state after disturbance. Mapping revealed differences in spatial patterns of resilience‐ highlighting low, interior marsh edges as especially vulnerable to the combination of chronic flooding stress and acute disturbance. At the landscape scale, approximately half of the area (48%) is vulnerable to state change after pulse disturbances. Synthesis . Ultimately, we quantify the ball‐and‐cup conceptual model for a salt marsh ecosystem and its alternative state, mudflat. We find that increasing abiotic stress due to climate change diminishes ecosystem resilience, but the interaction with common episodic disturbances is necessary to reveal transitions to alternative states and quantify state change thresholds. Quantifying and mapping resilience and where alternative states may exist in this fashion improves ecologists’ ability to investigate the mechanisms of stress gradient control on emergent ecosystem properties, while providing spatially explicit resources for managing ecosystems according to their projected resilience.

Louisiana↗

USGS2006

Modelling river discharge and precipitation from estuarine salinity in the northern Chesapeake Bay: Application to Holocene palaeoclimate

Long-term chronologies of precipitation can provide a baseline against which twentieth-century trends in rainfall can be evaluated in terms of natural variability and anthropogenic influence. However, there are relatively few methods to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoprecipitation and river discharge compared with proxies of other climatic factors, such as temperature. We developed autoregressive and least squares statistical models relating Chesapeake Bay salinity to river discharge and regional precipitation records. Salinity in northern and central parts of the modern Chesapeake Bay is influenced largely by seasonal, interannual and decadal variations in Susquehanna River discharge, which in turn are controlled by regional precipitation patterns. A power regressive discharge model and linear precipitation model exhibit well-defined decadal variations in peak discharge and precipitation. The utility of the models was tested by estimating Holocene palaeoprecipitation and Susquehanna River palaeodischarge, as indicated by isotopically derived palaeosalinity reconstructions from Chesapeake Bay sediment cores. Model results indicate that the early-mid Holocene (7055-5900 yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene (1500 yr BP - present), the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' (MWP) (1200-600 yr BP) was drier than the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA) (500-100 yr BP), and the twentieth century experienced extremes in precipitation possibly associated with changes in ocean-atmosphere teleconnections. ?? 2006 Edward Arnold (Publishers) Ltd.

Holocene↗

USGS2022

Hawaiian forest bird conservation strategies for minimizing the risk of extinction: biological and biocultural considerations

The iconic forest birds of Hawai‘i are facing a conservation crisis. Across the Hawaiian Islands, native forest birds have been experiencing population declines that have accelerated in the last one to two decades. While habitat loss, invasive species, and non-native predators have negatively affected forest bird species for hundreds of years, and continue to do so, introduced diseases, particularly avian malaria, are the greatest threat to forest birds today. Further, climate change has increased temperatures in the high-elevation forests, facilitating the spread of disease into areas that were once largely disease-free. Rapid population declines have now (2022) pushed four Hawaiian honeycreeper species to the brink of extinction: the endangered ‘akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘akeke‘e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ) on Kaua‘i Island, and kiwikiu ( Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) and ‘ākohekohe ( Palmeria dolei ) on Maui Island. The biologists that study these birds strongly agree that without a rapid conservation response to the threat of increasing disease mortality there is a high probability these species will go extinct in the coming decade. To help evaluate alternative conservation strategies for minimizing the risk of extinction, we convened diverse groups of experts with broad experience in Hawai‘i forest birds and ecosystems, as well as the management approaches being considered, to assess the probability of success of alternative management actions. In addition to assessing this crisis from a biological perspective, we convened a group of Native Hawaiian participants that have a strong connection to the forest birds, forests, and the integration of their culture in natural and biocultural resource management. They give voice to the significance of forest birds to Native Hawaiians and provide their perspectives on alternative management actions. Broadly, the three alternative management actions being considered to prevent the extinction of forest birds from the increasing threat of disease are (1) landscape-level mosquito control through the Wolbachia incompatible insect technique, (2) captive care, and (3) conservation translocations. The two key components of the problem of preventing extinction in these four bird species is time and risk. For each species, very few individuals remain, and they are all in danger of imminent extinction. Each management action takes time to implement, which might exceed the actual time to extinction. Additionally, each of these conservation actions has potential benefits and inherent risks, as well as substantial uncertainty in terms of being successful. Native Hawaiian perspectives and considerations also vary across the conservation actions. The expert evaluations summarized in this report provide a broad assessment of conservation strategies that could be undertaken to prevent the extinction of ‘akikiki, ‘akeke‘e, kiwikiu, and ‘ākohekohe. While this report does not recommend specific actions, the information is intended to support decision-makers as they assess which, if any, conservation strategies to pursue.

Hawaii↗

USGS2001

Knickzone propagation in the Black Hills and northern High Plains: A different perspective on the late Cenozoic exhumation of the Laramide Rocky Mountains

Geomorphic research in the Black Hills and northern High Plains poses an intriguing hypothesis for the Cenozoic evolution of this salient of the Laramide Rockies. Most recently, geologists have appealed to late Cenozoic epeirogenic uplift or climate change to explain the post-Laramide unroofing of the Rockies. On the basis of field mapping and the interpretation of long-valley profiles, we conclude that the propagation of knickzones is the primary mechanism for exhumation in the Black Hills. Long profiles of major drainages show discrete breaks in the slope of the channel gradient that are not coincident with changes in rock type. We use the term knickzones to describe these features because their profiles are broadly convex over tens of kilometers. At and below the knickzone, the channel is incising into bedrock, abandoning a flood plain, and forming a terrace. Above the knickzone, the channel is much less incised, resulting in a broad valley bottom. Numerous examples of stream piracy are documented, and in each case, the capture is recorded in the same terrace level. These observations are consistent with migrating knickzones that have swept through Black Hills streams, rearranging drainages in their wake. We demonstrate there are two knickzone fronts associated with mapped terraces. Preliminary field evidence of soil development shows that these terraces are time transgressive in nature. Our data strongly suggest that knickzone propagation must be considered a viable mechanism driving late Cenozoic fluvial incision and exhumation of the northern High Plains and adjacent northern Rocky Mountains.

South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗