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At least 1,477 records · Page 82Linked to original sources

A domestic earthquake impact alert protocol based on the combined USGS PAGER and FEMA Hazus loss estimation systems

The U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER alert system provides rapid (10-20 min) but general loss estimates of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for significant global earthquakes. FEMA’s Hazus software, in contrast, provides time consuming (2-5 hours) but more detailed loss information quantified in terms of structural, social, and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution for large domestic earthquakes. We developed a rapid hybrid post-earthquake product that takes advantage of the best of both loss models. First, though, we conducted a systematic comparison of loss estimates from PAGER with Hazus for all significant, relatively recent, domestic earthquakes for which adequate loss data exist — augmented by a dozen ShakeMap scenarios. The systematic comparison of Hazus and PAGER losses provided the basis for selecting the specific loss metrics to present from each system. The signature product will serve as a supplement to the widely deployed PAGER alerts product for significant domestic earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Fire history, effects and management in southern Nevada

Fire can be both an ecosystem stressor (Chapter 2) and a critical ecosystem process, depending on when, where, and under what conditions it occurs on the southern Nevada landscape. Fire can also pose hazards to human life and property, particularly in the wildland/urban interface (WUI). The challenge faced by land managers is to prevent fires from occurring where they are likely to threaten ecosystem integrity or human developments, while allowing fires to occur where they will provide ecosystem benefits. The Southern Nevada Agency Partnership (SNAP) Science and Research Strategy summarizes this desired outcome with Sub-goal 1.1, which is to manage wildland fire to sustain Southern Nevada’s ecosystems (table 1.3; Chapter 1). This chapter provides information that will help land managers develop strategies to achieve this goal. It begins with a background section on fire history, spatial and temporal patterns of fire, and fire effects for the major ecosystem types of southern Nevada, (table 1.1; Chapter 1). Potential fire management actions are then discussed, the overall implications of the information to fire management are summarized, and the major knowledge gaps are described.

Nevada↗

Pesticides associated with suspended sediments in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California

During the study of inputs of sediment-associated pesticides into the San Francisco Bay Estuary, suspended sediments were isolated from large-volume water samples collected over several years at various stations in Suisun Bay and also covering the principal inputs and outlet. The samples were analyzed for 21 pesticides and pesticide degradation products to provide information about the source and fate of pesticides associated with suspended sediments in the estuary. Where multiple samples were collected and analyzed, the data were averaged to provide a more general picture of pesticide transport.

California↗

Analysis of water-surface profiles in Leon County and the city of Tallahassee, Florida

Water surface profiles for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods for most of the streams that drain developing areas of Leon County and the city of Tallahassee are presented. The principal streams studied are in the Lake Munson, Lake Lafayette, and Lake Jackson basins Peak discharges were computed from regression equations based on information gained from 15 streamflow stations in the area. Standard step-backwater procedures were used to determine the water-surface elevations for the streams. The flood elevations were generally higher than those in the Flood Insurance Studies for Tallahassee (1976) and Leon County (1982). The primary reason for the higher profiles is that peak discharges used in this report are larger than those used previously, largely due to changes in land use. The flood profiles for Bradford Brook, North Branch Gum Creek, and West Branch Gum Creek generally match those in the Leon County Flood Insurance Studies. Channel improvements in some areas would lower the flood elevation in that area, but would probably increase flooding downstream. (Lantz-PTT)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Exploiting differential vegetation phenology for satellite-based mapping of semiarid grass vegetation in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico

We developed and evaluated a methodology for subpixel discrimination and large-area mapping of the perennial warm-season (C 4 ) grass component of vegetation cover in mixed-composition landscapes of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. We describe the methodology within a general, conceptual framework that we identify as the differential vegetation phenology (DVP) paradigm. We introduce a DVP index, the Normalized Difference Phenometric Index (NDPI) that provides vegetation type-specific information at the subpixel scale by exploiting differential patterns of vegetation phenology detectable in time-series spectral vegetation index (VI) data from multispectral land imagers. We used modified soil-adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI 2 ) data from Landsat to develop the NDPI, and MSAVI 2 data from MODIS to compare its performance relative to one alternate DVP metric (difference of spring average MSAVI 2 and summer maximum MSAVI 2 ), and two simple, conventional VI metrics (summer average MSAVI 2 , summer maximum MSAVI 2 ). The NDPI in a scaled form (NDPI s ) performed best in predicting variation in perennial C 4 grass cover as estimated from landscape photographs at 92 sites (R 2 = 0.76, p < 0.001), indicating improvement over the alternate DVP metric (R 2 = 0.73, p < 0.001) and substantial improvement over the two conventional VI metrics (R 2 = 0.62 and 0.56, p < 0.001). The results suggest DVP-based methods, and the NDPI in particular, can be effective for subpixel discrimination and mapping of exposed perennial C 4 grass cover within mixed-composition landscapes of the Southwest, and potentially for monitoring of its response to drought, climate change, grazing and other factors, including land management. With appropriate adjustments, the method could potentially be used for subpixel discrimination and mapping of grass or other vegetation types in other regions where the vegetation components of the landscape exhibit contrasting seasonal patterns of phenology.

Arizona↗

Status of sea otter populations in southcentral and southeast Alaska, 2002-2003

During the years 2002-2004 estimated sea otter population sizes were calculated for Southeast Alaska, Prince William Sound, and the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet regions of Alaska. Aerial surveys were conducted by a single observer from a float-equipped Bellanca Scout fixed-wing aircraft flying at 91 m altitude and 65 mph. The surveys followed protocols written by Bodkin and Udevitz (1999). The survey design consisted of systematic sampling of 400 m wide transects that were uniformly placed throughout the survey area. Selection and sampling of transects was proportional to expected sea otter abundance, with most effort taking place in transects over waters 0-40 m in depth. Intensive searches were periodically conducted within transects to estimate the proportion of sea otters not detected on strips. To obtain an adjusted population size estimate, strip counts are adjusted for the area not surveyed and by a correction factor.

Alaska↗

A geographic analysis of the status of mountain lions in Oklahoma

The geographic distribution of sightings and sign of mountain lions (Puma concolor) in Oklahoma was investigated. Mail survey questionnaires were sent to natural resource professionals throughout Oklahoma to gather temporal and spatial information on sightings of mountain lions from 1985 to 1995. We used a geographic information system (GIS) to compare locations of sightings and sign in the state with ecoregions, deer harvest, human population densities, locations of licensed owners and breeders of mountain lions, and generalized topography. Sightings and sign of mountain lions occurred significantly more often in the Central Rolling Red Plains than elsewhere in the state. Sightings of mountain lions increased with total deer harvest statewide (R2=0.828, P<0.001). Numbers of sightings of mountain lions were correlated negatively with density of the human population (R2=0.885, P=0.017). Surveys are a valuable method to assess the status of rare wildlife species when other methods are not available and when those receiving the survey are qualified.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Ground-water conditions in the central Virgin River basin, Utah

Water-rights problems have occurred in the central Virgin River basin and are expected to increase as development of the water resources increases. The Utah State Engineer needs a basic knowledge of ground-water conditions and of the relation of ground water to surface water as a first step to understanding and resolving the problems. Accordingly, the State Engineer requested the U. S. Geological Survey to make a ground-water investigation of the central Virgin River basin as part of the Statewide cooperative agreement with the Utah Department of Natural Resources. The investigation was begun July 1, 1968, and fieldwork was completed in August 1970. Detailed information was obtained for the principal aquifers and for recharge, movement, discharge, storage, utilization, and chemical quality of ground water. A progress report (Cordova, Sandberg, and McConkie, 1970) describes the general findings in the first year of the investigation.

Utah↗

The Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment: Mangrove, Tidal Emergent Marsh, Barrier Islands, and Oyster Reef

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources&mdash;particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp&rsquo;s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp&rsquo;s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both the species and habitat assessments. Many of the assessors who focused on species also identified data gaps regarding genetic information, phenotypic plasticity, life history, and species responses to past climate change and sea level rise. Regardless of information gaps, the results from the GCVA can be used to inform Gulf-wide adaptation plans. Given the scale of climatic impacts, coordinated efforts to address Gulf-wide threats to species and ecosystems will enhance the effectiveness of management actions and also have the potential to maximize the efficacy of limited funding.

Report↗

Ground-water areas and well logs, central Sevier Valley, Utah

Between September 1959 and June 1960 the United States Geological Survey and the Utah State Engineer, with financial assistance from Garfield, Millard, Piute, Sanpete, and Sevier Counties and from local water-users’ associations, cooperated in an investigation to determine the structural framework of the central Sevier Valley and to evaluate the valley’s ground-water potential. An important aspect of the study was the drilling of 22 test holes under private contract. These data and other data collected during the course of the larger ground-water investigation of which the test drilling was a part will be evaluated in a report on the geology and ground-water resources of the central Sevier Valley. The present report has been prepared to make available the logs of test holes and to describe in general terms the availability of ground water in the different areas of the valley.

Utah↗

Gulf Coast vulnerability assessment: Mangrove, tidal emergent marsh, barrier islands and oyster reef

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates exposure and sensitivity to threats (potential impact), coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both the species and habitat assessments. Many of the assessors who focused on species also identified data gaps regarding genetic information, phenotypic plasticity, life history, and species responses to past climate change and sea level rise. Regardless of information gaps, the results from the GCVA can be used to inform Gulf-wide adaptation plans. Given the scale of climatic impacts, coordinated efforts to address Gulf-wide threats to species and ecosystems will enhance the effectiveness of management actions and also have the potential to maximize the efficacy of limited funding.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

Incorporating an approach to aid river and reservoir fisheries in an altered landscape

Reservoir construction for human-use services alters connected riverine flow patterns and influences fish production. We sampled two pelagic fishes from two rivers and two reservoirs and related seasonal and annual hydrology patterns to the recruitment and growth of each species. River and reservoir populations of Freshwater Drum Aplodinotus grunniens reached similar ages (32 and 31, respectively). Likewise, longevity of Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum between the two systems was also similar (7 and 8 years, respectively). However, both species grew larger in the rivers compared to reservoir residents. Recruitment of Freshwater Drum in reservoirs was negatively related to water retention time (r2=0.59) suggesting moving water through the reservoir was beneficial. Riverine recruitment of Freshwater Drum populations was negatively related to the annual number of flow reversals and positively related to prespawn discharge (r2 = 0.33). Unlike Freshwater Drum, there was no relationship between flow metrics and Gizzard Shad recruitment in reservoirs. However, recruitment of riverine Gizzard Shad was positively related to high flow pulses during the prespawn and spawning seasons (r2 = 0.48). The growth of both species in reservoirs was positively related to the number of days each year that water levels were above the conservation pool. Growth of Freshwater Drum was also negatively related to minimum reservoir summer water levels (r2 = 0.84). Growth of both Freshwater Drum and Gizzard Shad occupying lotic systems was positively related to May (r2 = 0.86) and July discharge (r2 = 0.84), respectively. In general, growth and recruitment of the reservoir populations was more related to annual water patterns, whereas riverine fishes responded more to seasonal flow patterns. Results of this study provide important information on the relationship between hydrology and pelagic fish production in both rivers and reservoirs. This information is useful if agencies are interested in developing holistic river-reservoir water-allocation plans.

Cooperator Science Series↗

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2023 through December 2023

We sampled juvenile wild Oncorhynchus mykiss (Steelhead Trout) in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an inadequate adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (2008) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring. Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2023, we PIT-tagged 1,294 Steelhead Trout parr (age-0 and age-1), in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 parr were at high abundance due to a strong spawning run in 2023 (estimate of 814 adults from September snorkel survey compared to 22-year median of 450; Charlie Cochran, WDFW Fish Biologist, personal commun., 2022), but age-1 parr abundance was low following poor spawner numbers in 2022 (estimate of 159 adults from September snorkel survey). An additional 189 age-2 or older parr were tagged to provide fish for estimating detection efficiencies at PTISs. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trapping, instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection. We maintained and upgraded six instream PTISs to detect PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data for population assessments, and life-cycle research. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during seven of the past nine years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during eight of the past nine years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek, where it had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues because of an inadequate fish ladder. Detections at the instream PTISs have shown trends of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Our data suggest that often most fish from a cohort that migrate downstream will do so at age-1 for additional rearing downstream of their natal areas. It is unknown if this is ingrained behavior or a result of lack of habitat capacity. We have estimated that from 15 to 56% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall: this is especially pronounced in the upper Wind River portion of the watershed. These findings raise questions about preferred parr rearing habitat and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven, and answers to such questions are part of the long-term goals of this study as active and passive habitat restoration actions occur. Repeat sampling at sites in the subbasin within and between years has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer have been similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed. Summer growth rates have been lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. Non-native Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling provides an index of their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2024. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2022, though variable, have generally declined. Evaluation and planning of habitat restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin informs research and tracking of many populations and habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT-tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Detailed viable salmonid population and life-history data, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks inform fisheries policy and management and enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek and proposed major instream habitat restoration in the upper Wind River.

Washington↗

Applying threshold concepts to conservation management of dryland ecosystems: Case studies on the Colorado Plateau

Ecosystems may occupy functionally distinct alternative states, some of which are more or less desirable from a management standpoint. Transitions from state to state are usually associated with a particular trigger or sequence of triggers, such as the addition or subtraction of a disturbance. Transitions are often not linear, rather it is common to see an abrupt transition come about even though the trigger increases only incrementally; these are examples of threshold behaviors. An ideal monitoring program, such as the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program, would quantify triggers, and be able to inform managers when measurements of a trigger are approaching a threshold so that management action can avoid an unwanted state transition. Unfortunately, both triggers and the threshold points at which state transitions occur are generally only partially known. Using case studies, we advance a general procedure to help identify triggers and estimate where threshold dynamics may occur. Our procedure is as follows: (1) Operationally define the ecosystem type being considered; we suggest that the ecological site concept of the Natural Resource Conservation Service is a useful system, (2) Using all available a priori knowledge to develop a state-and-transition model (STM), which defines possible ecosystem states, plausible transitions among them and likely triggers, (3) Validate the STM by verifying the existence of its states to the greatest degree possible, (4) Use the STM model to identify transitions and triggers likely to be detectable by a monitoring program, and estimate to the greatest degree possible the value of a measurable indicator of a trigger at the point that a state transition is imminent (tipping point), and values that may indicate when management intervention should be considered (assessment points). We illustrate two different methods for attaining these goals using a data-rich case study in Canyonlands National Park, and a data-poor case study in Wupatki National Monument. In the data-rich case, STMs are validated and revised, and tipping and assessment points are estimated using statistical analysis of data. In the data-poor case, we develop an iterative expert opinion survey approach to validate the degree of confidence in an STM, revise the model, identify lack of confidence in specific model components, and create reasonable first approximations of tipping and assessment points, which can later be refined when more data are available. Our goal should be to develop the best set of models possible given the level of information available to support decisions, which is often not much. The approach presented here offers a flexible means of achieving this goal, and determining specific research areas in need of study.

Book chapter↗

The Areal Extent of Continuous Type Gas Accumulations in Lower Silurian Clinton Sands and Medina Group Sandstones of the Appalachian Basin and the Environments Affected by Their Development

In order to best preserve and manage our energy and natural resources we must understand the relationships between these resources and the impacts of their development. To further this understanding the U.S. Geological Survey is studying unconventional continuous-type and, to a lesser extent, conventional oil and gas accumulations and the environmental impacts associated with their development. Continuous-type gas accumulations are generally characterized by low matrix permeabilities, large areal extents, and no distinct water contacts. This basin scale map shows the overall extent of these accumulations and the general land use types that may be impacted by their development. The Appalachian Basin has the longest history of oil and gas exploration and production in the United States. Since Drake's Titusville discovery well was drilled in 1859, oil and gas has been continuously produced in the basin. While there is still a great deal of oil and gas production, new field discoveries are rare and relatively small. For most of the second half of the 20th century the Appalachian basin has been considered a mature petroleum province because most of the large plays have already been discovered and developed. One exception to this trend is the Lower Silurian Clinton Sands and Medina Group Gas play which is being developed in New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. This continuous-type gas play has been expanding since the early 1970's (see inset maps). In the 1980's economic incentives such as large increases in wellhead prices further stimulated continuous-type gas resource development. Continuous-type gas plays can be large in areal extent and in thickness. 'Sweetspots' (areas of greater prodcution) are hard to predict and generally associated with better than average permeabilities, and enhanced by natural fracture systems. With an overall success rate often approaching 90%, drilling most of the play with closely spaced wells is often the best way to maximize gas recovery. Some positive economic characteristics associated with the development of these continuous-type accumulations are high success rates, low drilling and development costs, and low water production, which results in low water disposal costs. Large areas within the Appalachian basin with good potential for this type of gas accumulation remain to be tested. Positive environmental characteristics include, a clean energy source, low water production, and relatively low surface impact. Some negative characteristics associated with these continuous -type accumulations are low individual well production rates and small well drainage area. Negative environmental characteristics are primarily related to the dense well spacing used to develop the resource to its full potential. Often negative environmental impacts such as surface disturbance can be greatly reduced. The number of well sites can be decreased by using a single centrally located surface location and associated facilities for several directionally or horizonatally drilled wells. This also minimizes the transportation infrastructure (access roads and pipelines) required to maintain the wells and deliver the gas. Visual impacts can be reduced by selecting well locations visible only over short distances. While the prospective area is large, potential decreases basin- ward and toward the northeast and southwest. These areas are represented by the lower potential plays 6727, 6730, and 6731. The U.S. Geological Survey landuse and landcover data was derived from USGS 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale maps. This information was collected between the mid 1970s to mid 1980s. The land use and land cover data was mapped and coded using the Anderson classification system (Anderson, 1975) which is a hierarchical system of general (level 1) to more specific (level 2) characterization. Level 1 characterization was used for this map; the land use and land cover designations are displayed below in the Explanation. T

Open-File Report↗

Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the GDSS have demonstrated the benefits of utilizing science for policy decisions. Investment in science reduces decision-making uncertainty and reducing that uncertainty has economic value.

Boletin Geologico y Minero↗

Pinyon-juniper woodlands

Pinyon-juniper woodlands are one of the largest ecosystems in the Southwest and in the Middle Rio Grande Basin (Fig. 1). The woodlands have been important to the region's inhabitants since prehistoric times for a variety of natural resources and amenities. The ecosystems have not been static; their distributions, stand characteristics, and site conditions have been altered by changes in climatic patterns and human use and, often, abuse. Management of these lands since European settlement has varied from light exploitation and benign neglect, to attempts to remove the trees in favor of forage for livestock, and then to a realization that these lands contain useful resources and should be managed accordingly. Land management agencies are committed to ecosystem management. While there are several definitions of ecosystem management, the goal is to use ecological approaches to create and maintain diverse, productive, and healthy ecosystems (Kaufmann et al. 1994). Ecosystem management recognizes that people are an integral part of the system and that their needs must be considered. Ecological approaches are central to the concept, but our understanding of basic woodland ecology is incomplete, and there are different opinions and interpretations of existing information (Gottfried and Severson 1993). There are many questions concerning proper ecosystem management of the pinyon-juniper woodlands and how managers can achieve these goals (Gottfried and Severson 1993). While the broad concept of ecosystem management generally is accepted, the USDA Forest Service, other public land management agencies, American Indian tribes, and private landowners may have differing definitions of what constitutes desired conditions. Key questions about the pinyon-juniper ecosystems remain unanswered. Some concern the basic dynamics of biological and physical components of the pinyon-juniper ecosystems. Others concern the distribution of woodlands prior to European settlement and changes since the introduction of livestock and fire control. This relates to whether tree densities have been increasing or whether trees are invading grasslands and, to a lesser extent, drier ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. In areas where woodlands were heavily used by American Indians for fuelwood prior to European contact, the advance of pinyon and juniper could represent the slow recovery from intensive use (Samuels and Betancourt 1982). There are numerous questions regarding declines in watershed condition related to changes in pinyon-juniper tree stand densities and to the density and composition of understory vegetation. There are different opinions about proper management of woodland ecosystems. Should these lands be managed for a single resource, such as forage for livestock production, or managed for sustained production of multiple resource products and amenities? Depending on site and stand conditions, the woodlands can produce variable quantities of fuelwood, pinyon nuts, wildlife habitat, forage for livestock, and cover for watershed protection. Management must also consider increasing recreational demands, threatened and endangered species, and protection of archeological sites. Many pinyon-juniper woodland watersheds in New Mexico have unsatisfactory soil and watershed conditions (USDA Forest Service 1993); managers must develop restoration procedures that recognize the value of woodland ecosystems. The concerns, questions, and conflicts surrounding management of pinyon-juniper lands, as well as the ecological foundations of ecosystem management, require that all interested parties reevaluate attitudes toward the woodlands. Ecosystem management goals and concepts recognize diversity. Pinyonjuniper woodlands are diverse, and stand characteristics and site productivities vary. Management objectives and prescriptions must evaluate the potential of each site, and decisions must be based on sound scientific information. This information is often unavailable. Therefore, this paper describes what we do know about the characteristics, distribution, and ecology of pinyon-juniper woodlands, including the effects of natural and human factors, within the southwestern United States and particularly the Middle Rio Grande Basin. It also reviews some past and present management options in this widespread and important vegetation type. The review draws on research and management information from the Rio Grande Basin and from similar areas in the Southwest and adjacent regions. It does not attempt to review all of the relevant literature; additional sources can be found within the articles cited in the References.

General Technical Report↗

Plant species invasions along the latitudinal gradient in the United States

It has been long established that the richness of vascular plant species and many animal taxa decreases with increasing latitude, a pattern that very generally follows declines in actual and potential evapotranspiration, solar radiation, temperature, and thus, total productivity. Using county-level data on vascular plants from the United States (3000 counties in the conterminous 48 states), we used the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to evaluate competing models predicting native and nonnative plant species density (number of species per square kilometer in a county) from various combinations of biotic variables (e.g., native bird species density, vegetation carbon, normalized difference vegetation index), environmental/topographic variables (elevation, variation in elevation, the number of land cover classes in the county, radiation, mean precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and potential evapotranspiration), and human variables (human population density, cropland, and percentage of disturbed lands in a county). We found no evidence of a latitudinal gradient for the density of native plant species and a significant, slightly positive latitudinal gradient for the density of nonnative plant species. We found stronger evidence of a significant, positive productivity gradient (vegetation carbon) for the density of native plant species and nonnative plant species. We found much stronger significant relationships when biotic, environmental/topographic, and human variables were used to predict native plant species density and nonnative plant species density. Biotic variables generally had far greater influence in multivariate models than human or environmental/topographic variables. Later, we found that the best, single, positive predictor of the density of nonnative plant species in a county was the density of native plant species in a county. While further study is needed, it may be that, while humans facilitate the initial establishment invasions of nonnative plant species, the spread and subsequent distributions of nonnative species are controlled largely by biotic and environmental factors.

Ecology↗