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At least 1,477 records · Page 82Linked to original sources

USGS1982

A generic guide to the larvae of the Nearctic Tanytarsini, (Chironomidae:diptera)

Larvae of the tribe Tanytarsini occur in nearly every aquatic habitat in North America where they act as primary consumers in the food chain. This new taxonomic guide overcomes some deficiencies in existing keys to this tribe and the reviewed and updated taxonomy enables identification of the larvae that may be useful as ecological indicators. Over 2,000 specimens from 26 states were examined, identified and measured in this study. The following genera were included: Stempellinell, Zavrelia, Stempellina, Constempellina, Corynocera, Cladotanytarsus,.. Paratanytarsus, Rheotanytarsus,. Micropsectra, Lauterbornia, Nimbocera, Tanytarsus and Neozavrelia. Photographs illustrate mature larvae of these genera with the exception of Zavrelia and Neozavrelia which are not known to exist in North America. The morphological data, Which are summarized in a table of distinctive characteristics and the dichotomous key, enable identification to genus. Notes on range, habitat and food preference are included, and species identifications are presented where applicable.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture–recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5–10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19–1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density—rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.

Annals of Applied Statistics↗

USGS1964

Simazine and other s-triazine compounds as aquatic herbicides in fish habitats

This investigation studied simazine (2-chloro-4,6-bis(ethylamino)- s -triazine), atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino- s -triazine), propazine (2-chloro-4,6-bis(isopropylamino)- s -triazine), and prometone (2-methoxy-4,6-bis(isopropylamino)- s -triazine). Preemergence applications of granular formulations of simazine on attaclay or calcium sulfate of simazine at 1 to 2 ppmw controlled Potamogeton , Najas , Ceratophyllum , Heteranthera and Zannichelli a. Higher rates were required to control filamentous algae ( Cladophora and Pithophora ) and chara ( Chara vulgaris ). Early postemergence applications of wettable powder to submersed aquatics and filamentous algae were often effective. Atrazine gave similar results. Concentrations of 0.5 to 1.0 were effective in controlling Cladophora and Pithophora and three species of Potamogeton in pond applications. Spray applications, generally, were more effective than broadcasting granular atrazine. Propazine and prometone did not control submersed species in concentrations up to 3 ppmw. Simazine had a relatively high margin of safety with respect to acute toxicity to fish. It was less toxic than propazine, prometone or atrazine. Granular forms were less toxic than wettable powder or emulsifiable concentrates. Laboratory tests on bottom organisms gave an acute LD 50 toxic dosage of 28 ppmw. Field observations did not demonstrate a serious reduction in the production of bottom organisms. However, the control of aquatic vegetation brought about ecological changes affecting bottom dwelling and weed clinging organisms. These changes would affect certain fishes with special food habits.

Weeds↗

USGS2016

Social-value maps for Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests, Colorado and Wyoming

Executive Summary The continued pressures of population growth on the life-sustaining, economic, and cultural ecosystem services provided by our national forests, particularly those located near rapidly growing urban areas, present ongoing challenges to forest managers. Achieving an effective assessment of these ecosystem services includes a proper accounting of the ecological, economic, and social values attributable to them. However, assessments of ecosystem goods and services notably lack information describing the spatial distribution and relative intensity of social values—the perceived, nonmarket values derived particularly from cultural ecosystem services. A geographic information system (GIS) tool developed to fill this need, Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES; http://solves.cr.usgs.gov ), now provides the capability to generate social-value maps at a range of spatial scales. This report presents some of the methods behind SolVES, procedures needed to apply the tool, the first formal map products resulting from its application at a regional scale, and a discussion of the management implications associated with this type of information. In this study, we use SolVES to identify the location and relative intensity of social values as derived from survey responses gathered from residents living in counties adjacent to Arapaho, Roosevelt, Medicine Bow, Routt, and White River National Forests. The results, presented as a series of social-value maps, represent the first publicly available spatial data on social-value intensity for the southern Rocky Mountain region. Our analysis identified high-value areas for social values including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life sustaining within wilderness areas. Other values, like recreation, show high-value areas both within wilderness and throughout the general forest areas, which can be attributed to people using the forests for a diverse set of recreational activities. The economic social-value type was lower within wilderness areas, which was an expected outcome because of the restrictions inside wilderness areas that preclude resource extraction, development, and motorized or mechanized recreation. Providing spatially explicit social-value information collected from residents in counties adjacent to these national forests can assist in facilitating the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service’s Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act of 1960 (16 U.S.C. 528) note and the 2012 Forest Service Planning Rule (36 CFR Part 219), which encourage public participation in planning and management. By making these maps available to the public, we hope to encourage exploration of potential uses of these data for resource management and planning.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Excess nitrogen in the U.S. environment: Trends, risks, and solutions

It is not surprising that humans have profoundly altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle in an effort to feed 7 billion people, because nitrogen is an essential plant and animal nutrient. Food and energy production from agriculture, combined with industrial and energy sources, have more than doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen circulating annually on land. Humanity has disrupted the nitrogen cycle even more than the carbon (C) cycle. We present new research results showing widespread effects on ecosystems, biodiversity, human health, and climate, suggesting that in spite of decades of research quantifying the negative consequences of too much available nitrogen in the biosphere, solutions remain elusive. There have been important successes in reducing nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere and this has improved air quality. Effective solutions for reducing nitrogen losses from agriculture have also been identified, although political and economic impediments to their adoption remain. Here, we focus on the major sources of reactive nitrogen for the United States (U.S.), their impacts, and potential mitigation options. Sources: ??? Intensive development of agriculture, industry, and transportation has profoundly altered the U.S. nitrogen cycle. ??? Nitrogen emissions from the energy and transportation sectors are declining, but agricultural emissions are increasing. ??? Approximately half of all nitrogen applied to boost agricultural production escapes its intended use and is lost to the environment. Impacts: ??? Two-thirds of U.S. coastal systems are moderately to severely impaired due to nutrient loading; there are now approximately 300 hypoxic (low oxygen) zones along the U.S. coastline and the number is growing. One third of U.S. streams and two fifths of U.S. lakes are impaired by high nitrogen concentrations. ??? Air pollution continues to reduce biodiversity. A nation-wide assessment has documented losses of nitrogen-sensitive native species in favor of exotic, invasive species. ??? More than 1.5 million Americans drink well water contaminated with too much (or close to too much) nitrate (a regulated drinking water pollutant), potentially placing them at increased risk of birth defects and cancer. More research is needed to deepen understanding of these health risks. ??? Several pathogenic infections, including coral diseases, bird die-offs, fish diseases, and human diarrheal diseases and vector-borne infections are associated with nutrient losses from agriculture and from sewage entering ecosystems. ??? Nitrogen is intimately linked with the carbon cycle and has both warming and cooling effects on the climate. Mitigation Options: ??? Regulation of nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions from energy and transportation sectors has greatly improved air quality, especially in the eastern U.S. Nitrogen oxide is expected to decline further as stronger regulations take effect, but ammonia remains mostly unregulated and is expected to increase unless better controls on ammonia emissions from livestock operations are implemented. ??? Nitrogen loss from farm and livestock operations can be reduced 30-50% using current practices and technologies and up to 70-90% with innovative applications of existing methods. Current U.S. agricultural policies and support systems, as well as declining investments in agricultural extension, impede the adoption of these practices. Society faces profound challenges to meet demands for food, fiber, and fuel while minimizing unintended environmental and human health impacts. While our ability to quantify transfers of nitrogen across land, water, and air has improved since the first publication of this series in 1997, an even bigger challenge remains: using the science for effective management policies that reduce climate change, improve water quality, and protect human and environmental health. ?? The Ecological Society of America.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS2025

Small waterbodies of large conservation concern: Towards an integrated approach to more accurately measuring surface water dynamics

Millions of small waterbodies are dispersed throughout the middle of the North American continent, and billions of dollars have been invested to conserve, restore, and manage these waterbodies in the 20th and 21st centuries. Small waterbody conservation has been supported by different stakeholders aiming at improving water quality, enhancing floodwater storage, and supporting migratory bird breeding habitat. Conservation agencies are using hydrological and biological monitoring, modeling, and mapping to adaptively manage small waterbodies in the face of stressors such as invasive species and climate change. As remote sensing estimates of small waterbody surface water extent have become easier to access, understanding the capabilities and limitations of using remote sensing, especially in areas lacking surface water monitoring, is important for conservation decision making. Here, we used in situ monitoring and process-based hydrological modeling to explore remote sensing accuracy, especially related to waterbody size, emergent aquatic vegetation cover, and climatic conditions. Overall, we found that the accuracy of satellite and aerial imagery surface water mapping approaches vastly decreased for waterbodies smaller than 2 ha. We also found emergent vegetation could be masking surface water in waterbodies larger than 2 ha and that accuracy of some remote sensing estimates may decrease during wetter climatic periods. These results indicate that sensors commonly used for surface water applications alone may not be able to accurately detect small waterbody surface water, which supports the need for combining monitoring and modeling to understand how small waterbodies may respond to future changes in climate and land use.

Minnesota↗

USGS2003

Spring hunting changes the regional movements of migrating greater snow geese

1. Human-induced disturbance such as hunting may influence the migratory behaviour of long-distance migrants. In 1999 and 2000 a spring hunt of greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus occurred for the first time in North America since 1916, aimed at stopping population growth to protect natural habitats. 2. We evaluated the impact of this hunt on the staging movements of geese along a 600-km stretch of the St Lawrence River in southern Quebec, Canada. 3. We tracked radio-tagged female geese in three contiguous regions of the staging area from the south-west to the north-east: Lake St Pierre, Upper Estuary and Lower Estuary, in spring 1997 (n = 37) and 1998 (n = 70) before the establishment of hunting , and in 1999 (n = 60) and 2000 (n = 59) during hunting . 4. We used multi-state capture-recapture models to estimate the movement probabilities of radio-tagged females among these regions. To assess disturbance level, we tracked geese during their feeding trips and estimated the probability of completing a foraging bout without being disturbed. 5. In the 2 years without hunting , migration was strongly unidirectional from the south-west to the north-east, with very low westward movement probabilities. Geese gradually moved from Lake St Pierre to Upper Estuary and then from Upper Estuary to Lower Estuary. 6. In contrast, during the 2 years with hunting westward movement was more than four times more likely than in preceding years. Most of these backward movements occurred shortly after the beginning of the hunt, indicating that geese moved back to regions where they had not previously experienced hunting . 7. Overall disturbance level increased in all regions in years with hunting relative to years without hunting . 8. Synthesis and applications. We conclude that spring hunting changed the stopover scheduling of this long-distance migrant and might further impact population dynamics by reducing prenuptial fattening. The spring hunt may also have increased crop damage. We propose that staggered hunt opening dates could attenuate secondary effects of such management actions.

Quebec↗

USGS2013

Combining glyphosate with burning or mowing improves control of Yellow Bluestem ( Bothriochloa ischaemum )

The invasive yellow bluestem ( Bothriochloa ischaemum [L.] Keng) threatens native biodiversity, and its control is of interest to land managers involved in restoration of invaded grasslands. We used single, double, and triple applications of glyphosate (2.125 kg ai.ha -1 .application -1 ) over the course of one growing season in combinations at different timings (early, middle, late season) with and without a mechanical treatment of mowing or burning to determine the most effective control method. One year after treatment, burning and mowing prior to a mid-season single or double early, middle, and/or late season herbicide application resulted in a similar level of control of yellow bluestem relative to a triple herbicide application, all of which had greater control relative to herbicide treatment alone. Reproductive tiller density and visual obstruction increased 2 yr after treatment with two herbicide treatments applied either early and middle season or early and late season, but it was prevented with burning and mowing prior to herbicide application. With the exception of three herbicide applications, combining burning or mowing with herbicide applications provided more effective control of yellow bluestem than any individual herbicide applications. Burning or mowing likely improves glyphosate effectiveness by altering the invasive grass structure so that plants are clear of standing dead and have shorter, active regrowth to enhance herbicide effectiveness. During restoration projects requiring control of invasive yellow bluestem, an effective management option is a combination of mechanical and chemical control.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2008

Importance of sampling design and analysis in animal population studies: a comment on Sergio et al

1. The use of predators as indicators and umbrellas in conservation has been criticized. In the Trentino region, Sergio et al. (2006; hereafter SEA) counted almost twice as many bird species in quadrats located in raptor territories than in controls. However, SEA detected astonishingly few species. We used contemporary Swiss Breeding Bird Survey data from an adjacent region and a novel statistical model that corrects for overlooked species to estimate the expected number of bird species per quadrat in that region. 2. There are two anomalies in SEA which render their results ambiguous. First, SEA detected on average only 6.8 species, whereas a value of 32 might be expected. Hence, they probably overlooked almost 80% of all species. Secondly, the precision of their mean species counts was greater in two-thirds of cases than in the unlikely case that all quadrats harboured exactly the same number of equally detectable species. This suggests that they detected consistently only a biased, unrepresentative subset of species. 3. Conceptually, expected species counts are the product of true species number and species detectability p. Plenty of factors may affect p, including date, hour, observer, previous knowledge of a site and mobbing behaviour of passerines in the presence of predators. Such differences in p between raptor and control quadrats could have easily created the observed effects. Without a method that corrects for such biases, or without quantitative evidence that species detectability was indeed similar between raptor and control quadrats, the meaning of SEA's counts is hard to evaluate. Therefore, the evidence presented by SEA in favour of raptors as indicator species for enhanced levels of biodiversity remains inconclusive. 4. Synthesis and application. Ecologists should pay greater attention to sampling design and analysis in animal population estimation. Species richness estimation means sampling a community. Samples should be representative for the community studied and the sampling fraction among communities compared should be the same on average, otherwise formal estimation approaches must be applied to avoid misleading inference.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2016

Overwintering strategies of migratory birds: a novel approach for estimating seasonal movement patterns of residents and transients

Our understanding of movement patterns in wildlife populations has played an important role in current ecological knowledge and can inform landscape conservation decisions. Direct measures of movement can be obtained using marked individuals, but this requires tracking individuals across a landscape or multiple sites. We demonstrate how movements can be estimated indirectly using single-site, capture–mark–recapture (CMR) data with a multi-state open robust design with state uncertainty model (MSORD-SU). We treat residence and transience as two phenotypic states of overwintering migrants and use time- and state-dependent probabilities of site entry and persistence as indirect measures of movement. We applied the MSORD-SU to data on eight species of overwintering Neotropical birds collected in 14 countries between 2002 and 2011. In addition to entry and persistence probabilities, we estimated the proportions of residents at a study site and mean residence times. We identified overwintering movement patterns and residence times that contrasted with prior categorizations of territoriality. Most species showed an evidence of residents entering sites at multiple time intervals, with transients tending to enter between peak resident movement times. Persistence and the proportion of residents varied by latitude, but were not always positively correlated for a given species. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest that migratory songbirds commonly move among habitats during the overwintering period. Substantial proportions of populations appear to be comprised of transient individuals, and residents tend to persist at specific sites for relatively short periods of time. This information on persistence and movement patterns should be explored for specific habitats to guide landscape management on the wintering grounds, such as determining which habitats are conserved or restored as part of certification programmes of tropical agroforestry crops. We suggest that research and conservation efforts on Neotropical migrant songbirds focus on identifying landscape configurations and regional habitat networks that support these diverse overwintering strategies to secure full life cycle conservation.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2022

NABat ML: Utilizing deep learning to enable crowdsourced development of automated, scalable solutions for documenting North American bat populations

Bats play crucial ecological roles and provide valuable ecosystem services, yet many populations face serious threats from various ecological disturbances. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) aims to use its technology infrastructure to assess status and trends of bat populations, while developing innovative and community-driven conservation solutions. Here, we present NABat ML , an automated machine-learning algorithm that improves the scalability and scientific transparency of NABat acoustic monitoring. This model combines signal processing techniques and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect and classify recorded bat echolocation calls. We developed our CNN model with internet-based computing resources (‘cloud environment’), and trained it on >600,000 spectrogram images. We also incorporated species range maps to improve the robustness and accuracy of the model for future ‘unseen’ data. We evaluated model performance using a comprehensive, independent, holdout dataset. NABat ML successfully distinguished 31 classes (30 species and a noise class) with overall weighted-average accuracy and precision rates of 92%, and ≥90% classification accuracy for 19 of the bat species. Using a single cloud-environment computing instance, the entire model training process took <16 h. Synthesis and applications . Our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based model, NABat ML , classifies 30 North American bat species using their recorded echolocation calls with an overall accuracy of 92%. In addition to providing highly accurate species-level classification, NABat ML and its outputs are compatible with Bayesian and other statistical techniques for measuring uncertainty in classification. Our model is open-source and reproducible, enabling future implementations as software on end-user devices and cloud-based web applications. These qualities make NABat ML highly suitable for applications ranging from grassroots community science initiatives to big-data methods developed and implemented by researchers and professional practitioners. We believe the transparency and accessibility of NABat ML will encourage broad-scale participation in bat monitoring, and enable development of innovative solutions needed to conserve North American bat species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2026

New methods provide a 300–year perspective on modern area burned in two wilderness areas of the southwest United States

Climate change, expanding human ignitions, and increased fuels from fire exclusion are driving increases in area burned and fire severity in dry conifer forests of the western United States. Increasing area burned is occurring against the backdrop of a large fire deficit caused by over a century of fire exclusion. A key land management question is whether historically frequent fire regimes can be restored. Accurate estimates of historical annual area burned (prior to circa 1900) are necessary to evaluate modern area burned (after circa 1900), but are difficult to derive, and have rarely been calibrated or validated against modern fires, leaving their accuracy uncertain. We developed new methods to use tree-ring fire scars to reconstruct historical annual area burned and compare it to modern annual area burned. We focused on two southwestern US wilderness areas—Saguaro National Park (SAGU) and the Gila Wilderness (GILA)—that have a long history of using prescribed and managed fires. The abundant modern low- and moderate-severity fires allowed us to (1) calibrate and validate the fire-scar models against mapped fires to derive the first uncertainty estimates of reconstructed annual area burned and (2) test whether active fire management can help restore annual area burned to historical levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of 10 individual member models accurately estimated area burned of mapped modern fires with no consistent biases. Each member model had distinct strengths and assumptions that made them suitable for specific applications (e.g., the synchrony model is easily applied, and Thiessen polygons provide spatially explicit area burned estimates). The accurate reconstruction of modern area burned from relatively sparse fire-scar data at GILA suggests that dense grids may not be necessary for accurate reconstructions. Our findings reveal that despite the near absence of fire in the early 20th century, both annual and 20-year sums of area burned in recent decades are back within historical levels at GILA, and trending toward historical levels at SAGU. These results demonstrate that fire management can help restore the historically prevalent, ecologically important process of widespread, frequent, low-to-moderate-severity fire in dry conifer forests.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2002

Preliminary United States-Mexico border watershed analysis, twin cities area of Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora

The United States - Mexico border area faces the challenge of integrating aspects of its binational physical boundaries to form a unified or, at least, compatible natural resource management plan. Specified geospatial components such as stream drainages, mineral occurrences, vegetation, wildlife, and land-use can be analyzed in terms of their overlapping impacts upon one another. Watersheds have been utilized as a basic unit in resource analysis because they contain components that are interrelated and can be viewed as a single interactive ecological system. In developing and analyzing critical regional natural resource databases, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other federal and non-governmental agencies have adopted a ?watershed by watershed? approach to dealing with such complicated issues as ecosystem health, natural resource use, urban growth, and pollutant transport within hydrologic systems. These watersheds can facilitate the delineation of both large scale and locally important hydrologic systems and urban management parameters necessary for sustainable, diversified land-use. The twin border cities area of Nogales, Sonora and Nogales, Arizona, provide the ideal setting to demonstrate the utility and application of a complete, cross-border, geographic information systems (GIS) based, watershed analysis in the characterization of a wide range of natural resource as well as urban features and their interactions. In addition to the delineation of a unified, cross-border watershed, the database contains sewer/water line locations and status, well locations, geology, hydrology, topography, soils, geomorphology, and vegetation data, as well as remotely sensed imagery. This report is preliminary and part of an ongoing project to develop a GIS database that will be widely accessible to the general public, researchers, and the local land management community with a broad range of application and utility.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2022

Migration Mapper: Identifying movement corridors and seasonal ranges for large mammal conservation

Modern tracking technology has facilitated a novel understanding of terrestrial mammal movement while revealing that movements are being truncated and lost. The first step towards conserving mobile animals is identifying movement corridors and key seasonal ranges. Yet, the identification and subsequent mapping of these important areas has remained a challenge due to the analytical skills necessary to conduct such analyses. Migration Mapper (MM) is a user-friendly software that provides tools to analyse global positioning system (GPS) collar data to create season-specific, population-level polygons representing areas where most of a population moves (i.e. movement corridors) and areas where most of a population spends time (e.g. high-use areas, seasonal ranges). MM consists of six standalone modules including data cleaning and review, seasonal movement delineation, movement model application, calculation of population-level outputs and visualization of results. Analysis of GPS data using MM can provide the spatial polygons necessary to facilitate conservation and policy planning. New initiatives at the local and global levels are already beginning to use MM to facilitate conservation of large, terrestrial mammals.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2025

Estimating spatially explicit survival and mortality risk from telemetry data with thinned point process models

Mortality risk for animals often varies spatially and can be linked to how animals use landscapes. While numerous studies collect telemetry data on animals, the focus is typically on the period when animals are alive, even though there is important information that could be gleaned about mortality risk. We introduce a thinned spatial point process (SPP) modelling framework that couples relative abundance and space use with a mortality process to formally treat the occurrence of mortality events across the landscape as a spatial process. We show how this model can be embedded in a hierarchical statistical framework and fit to telemetry data to make inferences about how spatial covariates drive both space use and mortality risk. We apply the method to two data sets to study the effects of roads and habitat on spatially explicit mortality risk: (1) VHF telemetry data collected for willow ptarmigan in Alaska, and (2) hourly GPS telemetry data collected for black bears in Colorado. These case studies demonstrate the applicability of this method for different species and data types, making it broadly useful in enabling inferences about the mechanisms influencing animal survival and spatial population processes while formally treating survival as a spatial process, especially as the development and implementation of joint analyses continue to progress.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2009

A cautionary note on substituting spatial subunits for repeated temporal sampling in studies of site occupancy

1. Assessing the probability that a given site is occupied by a species of interest is important to resource managers, as well as metapopulation or landscape ecologists. Managers require accurate estimates of the state of the system, in order to make informed decisions. Models that yield estimates of occupancy, while accounting for imperfect detection, have proven useful by removing a potentially important source of bias. To account for detection probability, multiple independent searches per site for the species are required, under the assumption that the species is available for detection during each search of an occupied site. 2. We demonstrate that when multiple samples per site are defined by searching different locations within a site, absence of the species from a subset of these spatial subunits induces estimation bias when locations are exhaustively assessed or sampled without replacement. 3. We further demonstrate that this bias can be removed by choosing sampling locations with replacement, or if the species is highly mobile over a short period of time. 4. Resampling an existing data set does not mitigate bias due to exhaustive assessment of locations or sampling without replacement. 5. Synthesis and applications. Selecting sampling locations for presence/absence surveys with replacement is practical in most cases. Such an adjustment to field methods will prevent one source of bias, and therefore produce more robust statistical inferences about species occupancy. This will in turn permit managers to make resource decisions based on better knowledge of the state of the system.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2017

A dynamic spatio-temporal model for spatial data

Analyzing spatial data often requires modeling dependencies created by a dynamic spatio-temporal data generating process. In many applications, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is used with a random effect to account for spatial dependence and to provide optimal spatial predictions. Location-specific covariates are often included as fixed effects in a GLMM and may be collinear with the spatial random effect, which can negatively affect inference. We propose a dynamic approach to account for spatial dependence that incorporates scientific knowledge of the spatio-temporal data generating process. Our approach relies on a dynamic spatio-temporal model that explicitly incorporates location-specific covariates. We illustrate our approach with a spatially varying ecological diffusion model implemented using a computationally efficient homogenization technique. We apply our model to understand individual-level and location-specific risk factors associated with chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer from Wisconsin, USA and estimate the location the disease was first introduced. We compare our approach to several existing methods that are commonly used in spatial statistics. Our spatio-temporal approach resulted in a higher predictive accuracy when compared to methods based on optimal spatial prediction, obviated confounding among the spatially indexed covariates and the spatial random effect, and provided additional information that will be important for containing disease outbreaks.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Correlates of biological soil crust abundance across a continuum of spatial scales: Support for a hierarchical conceptual model

1. Desertification negatively impacts a large proportion of the global human population and > 30% of the terrestrial land surface. Better methods are needed to detect areas that are at risk of desertification and to ameliorate desertified areas. Biological soil crusts are an important soil lichen-moss-microbial community that can be used toward these goals, as (i) bioindicators of desertification damage and (ii) promoters of soil stability and fertility. 2. We identified environmental factors that correlate with soil crust occurrence on the landscape and might be manipulated to assist recovery of soil crusts in degraded areas. We conducted three studies on the Colorado Plateau, USA, to investigate the hypotheses that soil fertility [particularly phosphorus (P), manganese (Mn) and zinc (Zn)] and/or moisture limit soil crust lichens and mosses at four spatial scales. 3. In support of the soil fertility hypothesis, we found that lichen-moss crusts were positively correlated with several nutrients [Mn, Zn, potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) were most consistent] at three of four spatial scales ranging from 3.5 cm2 in area to c. 800 km2. In contrast, P was negatively correlated with lichen-moss crusts at three scales. 4. Community composition varied with micro-aspect on ridges in the soil crust. Three micro-aspects [north-north-west (NNW), east-north-east (ENE) and TOP] supported greater lichen and moss cover than the warmer, windward and more xeric micro-aspects [west-south-west (WSW) and south-south-east (SSE)]. This pattern was poorly related to soil fertility; rather, it was consistent with the moisture limitation hypothesis. 5. Synthesis and application. Use of crusts as desertification bioindicators requires knowledge of a site's potential for crust cover in the absence of desertification. We present a multi-scale model of crust potential as a function of site properties. Future quantitative studies can use this model to guide sampling efforts. Also, our results suggest new directions in restoration research: enhancement of moisture residence time and fertilization with key nutrients (Mn, Zn, K and Mg). Re-establishment of soil crusts in desertified lands will help regain lost soil stability and fertility, and facilitate plant re-establishment. ?? 2006 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗