USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “earthquake hazards”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources

A comprehensive assessment of submarine landslides and mass wasting processes offshore southern California

It is critical to characterize submarine landslide hazards near dense coastal populations, especially in areas with active faults, which can trigger slope failure, subsequent tsunamis, and damage seabed infrastructure during earthquake shaking. Offshore southern California, numerous marine geophysical surveys have been conducted over the past decade, and high-resolution bathymetric and subsurface data now cover about 60 percent of the total region between Point Conception and the United States-Mexico border from the California coast out to the base of Patton Escarpment ∼200 km offshore. In a comprehensive compilation and interpretive mapping effort, we find evidence of seafloor failure throughout offshore southern California with nearly 1,500 submarine landslide-related features, including 63 discrete slide deposits with debris and >1,400 slide-related scarps. In our analysis, we highlight new mapping of submarine landslides in Catalina Basin, the Del Mar slide, the San Gabriel slide complex, and the 232 km 2 San Nicolas slide, the largest area of any known submarine landslide mass offshore southern California. Analysis of the spatial distribution of submarine landslide features suggests that most mapped slide features are located relatively near coastal sediment sources, particularly during sea-level lowstand conditions, which underscores the importance of sediment supply and sediment accumulation on low-gradient slopes as failure preconditioning processes. Tectonically driven uplift at shelf edges and along basin flanks is another key preconditioning factor, and our results also suggest that earthquakes along active faults trigger mass wasting, especially for repeated, small-scale failures on tectonically steepened slopes.

California↗

Map and data for Quaternary faults and folds in New Mexico

The "World Map of Major Active Faults" Task Group is compiling a series of digital maps for the United States and other countries in the Western Hemisphere that show the locations, ages, and activity rates of major earthquake-related features such as faults and fault-related folds; the companion database includes published information on these seismogenic features. The Western Hemisphere effort is sponsored by International Lithosphere Program (ILP) Task Group H-2, whereas the effort to compile a new map and database for the United States is funded by the Earthquake Reduction Program (ERP) through the U.S. Geological Survey. The maps and accompanying databases represent a key contribution to the new Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Program (ILP Task Group II-O) for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. This compilation, which describes evidence for surface faulting and folding in New Mexico, is the third of many similar State and regional compilations that are planned for the U.S. The compilation for West Texas is available as U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-002 (Collins and others, 1996 #993) and the compilation for Montana will be released as a Montana Bureau of Mines product (Haller and others, in press #1750).

New Mexico↗

Volcano seismology, hazards assessment

The last few years have seen several impressive examples of seismic monitoring at volcanoes to provide warnings that have saved lives and property. Changes in the rates and character of volcanic earthquakes provided precursory signs to explosive eruptions of moderate size at Redoubt volcano (Alaska), Mount Unzen (Japan), Mount Spurr (Alaska), and Rabaul caldera (Papua New Guinea), as well as the large eruption at Mount Pinatubo (Philippines). In all these cases, information was successfully communicated and put to practical use through broadcasts of public warnings prior to the eruptions and evacuations were initiated for the volcanoes located in populated areas. At Mount Pinatubo, probably thousands and possibly tens of thousands of lives were saved.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: A case study of American Samoa

Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of post-disaster assessments in pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards and use the US territory of American Samoa as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of tsunami inundation zones recreated for the 2009 M w 8.1 Samoa earthquake, as well as for a probable maximum tsunami zone for future threats. Modeling assumptions are guided by fatality trends and observations of 2009 evacuation behavior, including insights on departure delays, environmental cues, transportation mode, and demographic characteristics. Differences in actual fatalities from the 2009 disaster and modeled population vulnerability suggest that a single set of estimated travel times to safety does not fully characterize evacuation potential of a dispersed, at-risk population. Efforts to prepare coastal communities in American Samoa for future tsunamis may be challenging given substantial differences in wave characteristics and evacuation potential of the probable maximum hazard compared to the 2009 event.

American Samoa↗

Summary of the GK15 ground‐motion prediction equation for horizontal PGA and 5% damped PSA from shallow crustal continental earthquakes

We present a revised ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) response ordinates of the horizontal component of randomly oriented ground motions to be used for seismic‐hazard analyses and engineering applications. This GMPE is derived from the expanded Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)‐West 1 database (see Data and Resources ; Chiou et al. , 2008 ). The revised model includes an anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality factor ( Q 0 ) to capture regional differences in far‐source (beyond 150 km) attenuation, and a new frequency‐dependent sedimentary‐basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5&thinsp;&thinsp;km/s shear‐wave velocity isosurface to improve ground‐motion predictions at sites located on deep sedimentary basins. The new Graizer&ndash;Kalkan 2015 (GK15) model, developed to be simple, is applicable for the western United States and other similar shallow crustal continental regions in active tectonic environments for earthquakes with moment magnitudes ( M ) 5.0&ndash;8.0, distances 0&ndash;250 km, average shear‐wave velocities in the upper 30 m ( V S 30 ) 200&ndash;1300&thinsp;&thinsp;m/s, and spectral periods ( T ) 0.01&ndash;5 s. Our aleatory variability model captures interevent (between‐event) variability, which decreases with magnitude and increases with distance. The mixed‐effect residuals analysis reveals that the GK15 has no trend with respect to the independent predictor parameters. Compared to our 2007&ndash;2009 GMPE, the PGA values are very similar, whereas spectral ordinates predicted are larger at T <0.2&thinsp;&thinsp;s and they are smaller at longer periods.

Alaska, California, Nevada↗

Slow rupture, long rise times, and multi-fault geometry: The 2020 M6.4 southwestern Puerto Rico mainshock

The M 6.4 mainshock of the southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence on 7 January 2020, was one of the most impactful modern earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean. Due to its offshore location and complex aftershock distribution, its source kinematics remain poorly constrained. This active sequence illuminated a complex set of previously unrecognized structures that indicate multiple causative faults may have slipped during its rupture. Here, we utilize seismic and geodetic observations to enhance model resolution, estimate the finite slip of the mainshock, and test a multi-segment, geologically realistic fault geometry. Our refined model finds a lower rupture velocity and longer rise times than typical for an event of this magnitude. This indicates a slow-evolving rupture process that resembles characteristics of a tsunami earthquake. Although this normal/strike-slip faulting event was not tsunamigenic, these qualities, if pervasive for this region, have important implications for future seismic monitoring and hazards in southwestern Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico↗

Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New results and future directions

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006 ) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests and authoritative data sets, to assess the predictive skill of forecast models and to make objective comparisons between models. CSEP conducts prospective experiments at four testing centers around the world, at which more than 400 models and model versions are currently under evaluation. These models include a range of methods and scales from long‐term global earthquake forecasts to short‐term regional forecasts used for Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). CSEP has also conducted retrospective tests and developed new testing methods in its quest to answer fundamental scientific questions, improve seismic hazard assessments, and develop new forecast methods for OEF.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Engineering uses of physics-based ground motion simulations

This paper summarizes validation methodologies focused on enabling ground motion simulations to be used with confidence in engineering applications such as seismic hazard analysis and dynmaic analysis of structural and geotechnical systems. Numberical simullation of ground motion from large erthquakes, utilizing physics-based models of earthquake rupture and wave propagation, is an area of active research in the earth science community. Refinement and validatoin of these models require collaboration between earthquake scientists and engineering users, and testing/rating methodolgies for simulated ground motions to be used with confidence in engineering applications. This paper provides an introduction to this field and an overview of current research activities being coordinated by the Souther California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These activities are related both to advancing the science and computational infrastructure needed to produce ground motion simulations, as well as to engineering validation procedures. Current research areas and anticipated future achievements are also discussed.

Conference Paper↗

Improved earthquake monitoring in the central and eastern United States in support of seismic assessments for critical facilities

Evaluation of seismic monitoring capabilities in the central and eastern United States for critical facilities - including nuclear powerplants - focused on specific improvements to understand better the seismic hazards in the region. The report is not an assessment of seismic safety at nuclear plants. To accomplish the evaluation and to provide suggestions for improvements using funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey examined addition of new strong-motion seismic stations in areas of seismic activity and addition of new seismic stations near nuclear power-plant locations, along with integration of data from the Transportable Array of some 400 mobile seismic stations. Some 38 and 68 stations, respectively, were suggested for addition in active seismic zones and near-power-plant locations. Expansion of databases for strong-motion and other earthquake source-characterization data also was evaluated. Recognizing pragmatic limitations of station deployment, augmentation of existing deployments provides improvements in source characterization by quantification of near-source attenuation in regions where larger earthquakes are expected. That augmentation also supports systematic data collection from existing networks. The report further utilizes the application of modeling procedures and processing algorithms, with the additional stations and the improved seismic databases, to leverage the capabilities of existing and expanded seismic arrays.

Open-File Report↗

Framework for implementing damping scaling factors in U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models

Traditionally, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has focused on calculating ground motion hazard curves for elastic, 5%-damped pseudo spectral accelerations, Sa(T,5%), which are used as the basis for engineering design parameters and targets for ground motion selection and modification. However, structures and geotechnical systems can exhibit a wide range of damping ratios both above and below the 5% level, depending on the construction material, structural system, nonstructural elements, or subsurface soil properties. When spectral parameters at such damping levels are required for certain applications, 5%-damped accelerations have traditionally been extracted from PSHA-based hazard curves and adjusted outside of the hazard integral using damping scaling factors (DSF) such as those from Newmark & Hall (1982). Recent advances in the development of more rigorous and comprehensive damping scaling models (e.g., Rezaeian et al., 2014; Rezaeian et al., 2021) have allowed for the modeling of means and standard deviations of DSFs as functions of earthquake source and path properties for crustal, intraslab, and subduction interface tectonic environments. These DSF models can be applied to ground motion model (GMM) estimates of Sa(T,5%) for a given earthquake rupture scenario to produce a corresponding mean and standard deviation Sa at a specified damping ratio β, Sa(T,β). In this study, the DSF models of Rezaeian et al. (2014) and Rezaeian et al. (2021) are implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) PSHA framework to calculate probabilistic hazard curves for spectral accelerations at damping ratios from 0.5% to 30%. The DSF models are applied directly to the mean and standard deviation of Sa(T,5%) predictions from each GMM in the NSHM logic tree. Resulting hazard curves and uniform hazard and risk spectra for Sa(T,β) are presented for several geographic locations and compared with corresponding spectra estimated using current design practices by applying the same DSFs outside of the PSHA calculation. Key differences between the two methods for estimating Sa(T,β) are discussed, and potential strategies are presented for the implementation and usage of the hazard-consistent Sa(T,β) in building codes. Comparing the results to those from DSFs used in current design practices that are mainly based on Newmark & Hall (1982) is not explored in this study.

Conference Paper↗

USGS “Did You Feel It?” — Science and lessons from twenty years of citizen science-based macroseismology

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system is an automatic method for rapidly collecting macroseismic intensity data from Internet users’ shaking and damage reports and for generating intensity maps immediately following felt earthquakes. DYFI has been in operation for nearly two decades (1999-2019) in the United States, and for nearly 15 years globally. During that period the amount of data collected is astounding: Over 5 million individual DYFI intensity reports—spanning all magnitude and distance ranges—have been amassed and archived. DYFI allows for macroseismic data collection at rates and quantities never before imagined, and thus high-quality macroseismic intensity maps can be made almost immediately, and with more complete coverage at higher resolution than in the past. DYFI also allows for valuable positive interactions of the citizenry with a Federal science agency. In essence, the widespread adoption of DYFI—along with ShakeMap—has facilitated the general acceptance of the very concept of shaking intensity, fundamentally improving our agency’s ability to communicate both hazard and risk to the population. DYFI effectively confirms the importance of reporting and inculcating the public’s understanding of intensity—in addition to magnitude—for a proper perspective of earthquake risk-related decision-making. Furthermore, the vast amount of DYFI data allow for data-rich analyses of otherwise intractable seismological, sociological, and earthquake impact studies that range from quantifying the shaking due to induced earthquakes, to human response and risk perception, to relating recorded shaking metrics to macroseismic effects, and the attenuation of intensity with magnitude and distance. Naturally, web-based data collection also poses challenges. After two decades of experience acquiring data with the DYFI system, we address some of these hallenges by documenting refinements to our algorithmic and operational procedures that have evolved over that time. Lastly, we outline new opportune research and development directions for our DYFI approach to citizen seismology.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

Catalog of earthquakes in south-central Alaska, April - June 1972

The National Center for Earthquake Research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) installed a network of eleven seismograph stations in south-central Alaska in the summer of 1971 to collect seismological data for investigating seismic and tectonic processes in the Cook Inlet region, for evaluating the seismic hazard in the Cook Inlet region and in the Chugach Mountains along the southern end of the route of the proposed trans-Alaska oil pipeline, and for studying the structure of the crust and upper mantle in south-central Alaska. The first recordings from the network were obtained in late September 1971. The first earthquakes to be located with data from the network occurred in October 1971. This earthquake catalog, which is the first to be compiled for the USGS Alaska network, presents origin times, focal coordinates and magnitudes for 210 shocks occurring in the second quarter of 1972 (except from June 15 to 23) in south-central Alaska, primarily in the Cook Inlet region. Readings from a total of 18 stations were used to locate the shocks. To supplement the readings from the 10 USGS stations that were operative during this quarter, arrival times were obtained from 6 stations operated by the Palmer Seismological Observatory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 2 stations operated by the Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska (U of A). The data in this catalog are the most detailed and precise earthquake data compiled to date for earthquakes within the Cook Inlet region. Earthquakes in south-central Alaska as small as magnitude 3.0 have been routinely located by the National Earthquake Information Center of NOAA (currently the National Earthquake Information Service of USGS) since the great Alaska earthquake of 1964 and published in the reports "Preliminary Determination of Epicenters" (PDE). In contrast the shocks included in this catalog are as small as magnitude 1.0 and most are smaller than magnitude 3.0. Data for the larger historic earthquakes in south-central Alaska have been tabulated by Davis and Echols (1962) and U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey (1966). The locations of the eleven stations of the NCER seismograph network are plotted in Figure 1 and listed in Table 1 along with the additional stations from which readings were obtained. The USGS stations have single, vertical-component seismometers except for NKA and SKL, which also have two horizontal seismometers. The station ERN was installed in the summer of 1971, however the telemetry circuit was not available until September 1972.

Alaska↗

Developing empirical collapse fragility functions for global building types

Building collapse is the dominant cause of casualties during earthquakes. In order to better predict human fatalities, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program requires collapse fragility functions for global building types. The collapse fragility is expressed as the probability of collapse at discrete levels of the input hazard defined in terms of macroseismic intensity. This article provides a simple procedure for quantifying collapse fragility using vulnerability criteria based on the European Macroseismic Scale (1998) for selected European building types. In addition, the collapse fragility functions are developed for global building types by fitting the beta distribution to the multiple experts’ estimates for the same building type (obtained from EERI’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE)-PAGER survey). Finally, using the collapse probability distributions at each shaking intensity level as a prior and field-based collapse-rate observations as likelihood, it is possible to update the collapse fragility functions for global building types using the Bayesian procedure.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Introduction to “Global tsunami science: Past and future, Volume II”

Twenty-two papers on the study of tsunamis are included in Volume II of the PAGEOPH topical issue “Global Tsunami Science: Past and Future”. Volume I of this topical issue was published as PAGEOPH, vol. 173, No. 12, 2016 (Eds., E. L. Geist, H. M. Fritz, A. B. Rabinovich, and Y. Tanioka). Three papers in Volume II focus on details of the 2011 and 2016 tsunami-generating earthquakes offshore of Tohoku, Japan. The next six papers describe important case studies and observations of recent and historical events. Four papers related to tsunami hazard assessment are followed by three papers on tsunami hydrodynamics and numerical modelling. Three papers discuss problems of tsunami warning and real-time forecasting. The final set of three papers importantly investigates tsunamis generated by non-seismic sources: volcanic explosions, landslides, and meteorological disturbances. Collectively, this volume highlights contemporary trends in global tsunami research, both fundamental and applied toward hazard assessment and mitigation.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

Seismic tomography 2023

Seismic tomography is the most abundant source of information about the internal structure of the Earth at scales ranging from a few meters to thousands of kilometers. It constrains the properties of active volcanoes, earthquake fault zones, deep reservoirs and storage sites, glaciers and ice sheets, or the entire globe. It contributes to outstanding societal problems related to natural hazards, resource exploration, underground storage, and many more. The recent advances in seismic tomography are being translated to nondestructive testing, medical ultrasound, and helioseismology. Nearly 50 yr after its first successful applications, this article offers a snapshot of modern seismic tomography. Focused on major challenges and particularly promising research directions, it is intended to guide both Earth science professionals and early‐career scientists. The individual contributions by the coauthors provide diverse perspectives on topics that may at first seem disconnected but are closely tied together by a few coherent threads: multiparameter inversion for properties related to dynamic processes, data quality, and geographic coverage, uncertainty quantification that is useful for geologic interpretation, new formulations of tomographic inverse problems that address concrete geologic questions more directly, and the presentation and quantitative comparison of tomographic models. It remains to be seen which of these problems will be considered solved, solved to some extent, or practically unsolvable over the next decade.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

The next big earthquake in the Bay Area may come sooner than you think—Are you prepared?

Many of us breathed a little easier after October 17, 1989. The Lorna Prieta earthquake, 7.1 on the Richter scale, meant that the big one, talked about for decades, had finally happened. And, bad as it was, we had survived. There are two things wrong with that. First, Lorna Prieta was not the big one. It was a moderately big one, certainly destructive to some parts of the Bay Area, but nowhere near the size of the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906. Second, having an earthquake like Lorna Prieta has little to do with the likelihood of having another one on a different fault, somewhere else in the area. The inevitability of a damaging earthquake still confronts everybody in the Bay Area, and we still risk substantial damage. A new study, released in July 1990 by the United States Geological Survey, says that there is a 67 percent chance of another earthquake the size of Lorna Prieta during the next 30 years and that the quake could strike at any time, including today. In other words, scientists think that a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake is now twice as likely to happen as not to happen. This is a substantial increase, since in 1988, scientists thought the chance for such an earthquake was 50 percent Gust as likely to occur as not to occur) within 30 years. The new report also says that the next one will most likely strike farther north than Lorna Prieta, somewhere between San Jose and Santa Rosa on either side of the Bay. The epicenter of the October 1989 quake was in a sparsely populated area. The next one, according to the study, will likely be centered in a more populated area. During the Lorna Prieta earthquake, shaking was so severe in the Santa Cruz Mountains that a van overturned, treetops snapped off, and many people were thrown to the ground. Because the next one is expected to strike closer to an urban area, it will cause much more damage. Fortunately, there is something we can do about it. By taking actions, such as those described in this booklet, we can drastically reduce the losses and we can make the Bay Area a safer place to live. Earthquake damage is particularly great in certain locations and in certain buildings. Most locations and most modem buildings are relatively safe. By identifying the greatest hazards, we can set priorities for using our limited resources most effectively to reduce them. The choice is ours.

General Interest Publication↗

Potential Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California: Chapter F in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

The California Tsunami Scenario models the impacts of a hypothetical, yet plausible, tsunami caused by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula. In this chapter, we interpret plausible tsunami-related contamination, environmental impacts, potential for human exposures to contaminants and hazardous materials, and implications for remediation and recovery. Inundation-related damages to major ports, boat yards, and many marinas could release complex debris, crude oil, various fuel types and other petroleum products, some liquid bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo, and diverse other pollutants into nearby coastal marine environments and onshore in the inundation zone. Tsunami-induced erosion of contaminated harbor bottom sediments could re-expose previously sequestered metal and organic pollutants (for example, organotin or DDT). Inundation-related damage to many older buildings could produce debris containing lead paint, asbestos, pesticides, and other legacy contaminants. Intermingled household debris and externally derived debris and sediments would be left in flooded buildings. Post tsunami, mold would likely develop in inundated houses, buildings, and debris piles. Tsunamigenic fires in spilled oil, debris, cargo, vehicles, vegetation, and residential, commercial, or industrial buildings and their contents would produce potentially toxic gases and smoke, airborne ash, and residual ash/debris containing caustic alkali solids, metal toxicants, asbestos, and various organic toxicants. Inundation of and damage to wastewater treatment plants in many coastal cities could release raw sewage containing fecal solids, pathogens, and waste chemicals, as well as chemicals used to treat wastewaters. Tsunami-related physical damages, debris, and contamination could have short- and longer-term impacts on the environment and the health of coastal marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Marine habitats in intertidal zones, marshes, sloughs, and lagoons could be damaged by erosion or sedimentation, and could receive an influx of debris, metal and organic contaminants, and sewage-related pathogens. Debris and re-exposed contaminated sediments would be a source of sea- or rain-water-leachable metal and organic contaminants that could pose chronic toxicity threats to ecosystems. If human populations are successfully evacuated prior to the tsunami arrival, there would be no or limited numbers of drownings, other casualties, or related injuries, wounds, and infections. Immediately after the tsunami, human populations away from the inundation zone could be transiently exposed to airborne gases, smoke, and ash from tsunamigenic fires. Cleanup and disposal, particularly of hazardous materials, would pose substantial logistical challenges and economic costs. Given the high value of the coastal residential and commercial properties in the inundation zone, it can be postulated that there would be substantial insurance claims for environmental restoration, mold mitigation, disposal of debris that contains hazardous materials, and costs of litigation related to environmental liability. Post-tsunami cleanup, if done with appropriate mitigation (for example, dust control), personal protection, and disposal measures, would help reduce the potential for cleanup-worker and resident exposures to toxicants and pathogens in harbor waters, debris, soils, ponded waters, and buildings. A number of other steps can be taken by governments, businesses, and residents to help reduce the environmental impacts of tsunamis and to recover more quickly from these environmental impacts. For example, development of State and local policies that foster rapid assessment of potential contamination, as well as rapid decision making for disposal options should hazardous debris or sediment be identified, would help enhance recovery by speeding cleanup.

California↗

Impact-based earthquake alerts with the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system: what's next?

In September 2010, the USGS began publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses with its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. These estimates significantly enhanced the utility of the USGS PAGER system which had been, since 2006, providing estimated population exposures to specific shaking intensities. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating estimated losses (and their uncertainties) to the public, the media, humanitarian, and response communities required a new protocol—necessitating the development of an Earthquake Impact Scale—described herein and now deployed with the PAGER system. After two years of PAGER-based impact alerting, we now review operations, hazard calculations, loss models, alerting protocols, and our success rate for recent (2010-2011) events. This review prompts analyses of the strengths, limitations, opportunities, and pressures, allowing clearer definition of future research and development priorities for the PAGER system.

Conference Paper↗