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USGS2021

American Woodcock singing-ground survey: Comparison of four models for trend in population size

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t -distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t -test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

Eastern and Central United States and Canada↗

USGS2017

Behavioral responses of Pacific lamprey to alarm cues

Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ), an anadromous ectoparasite, faces several challenges during adult migration to spawning grounds. Developing methods to address these challenges is critical to the success of ongoing conservation efforts. The challenges are diverse, and include anthropogenic alterations to the ecosystem resulting in loss of habitat, impassable barriers such as dams, climate change impacts, and altered predator fields. We conducted a behavioral study to understand how adult migrating Pacific lamprey respond to potential alarm cues: White Sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ), human saliva, decayed Pacific lamprey, and river otter ( Lontra canadensis ). Research has shown that some species of lamprey can be guided to a location using odors and similar cues may be useful as a management tool for Pacific lamprey. Experiments were conducted over 2 nights and measured the number of entries (count) and duration of time spent (occupancy) by adult lamprey in each arm of a two-choice maze. During the first night, no odor was added to test for selection bias between arms. During the second night odor was added to one arm of the maze. Contrary to expectations, lamprey were significantly attracted to the river otter odor in both count and occupancy. No significant differences were found in the response of lamprey to the other three odors. Results from this study indicate that Pacific lamprey do respond to some odors; however, additional tests are necessary to better identify the types of odors and concentrations that elicit a repeatable response.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗

USGS2018

Variation in age ratio of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese during fall migration

Annual productivity is an important parameter for the management of waterfowl populations. Fall age ratio (juveniles:total birds) is an index of productivity of the preceding breeding season. However, differences in the timing of migration between family groups and nonbreeding birds may bias age-ratio estimates. We examined temporal variation in age ratios of midcontinent greater white-fronted geese Anser albifrons frontalis from interior and northwestern Alaska at a northern autumn staging area near Delta Junction, Alaska. Photographic sampling conducted near Delta Junction resulted in an annual age ratio of 0.388 ± 0.004 (mean ± SE) in 2010 and 0.390 ± 0.001 in 2011. Our study demonstrated temporal variation in age ratios over the duration of the migration period during August and September. We recommend that sampling be conducted for 3-d periods at the beginning, middle, and end of the migration period to account for temporal variation in migration of family groups.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Is barotrauma an important factor in the discard mortality of Yellow Perch?

In physoclistous fishes, barotrauma caused by rapid decompression during capture may be an important source of fishing mortality that is unquantified for some fisheries. We developed a predictive logistic model for barotrauma incidence in Yellow Perch Perca flavescens and applied this model to Ohio's recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie where fisheries managers implicitly consider discard mortality to be negligible in current stock assessment. As expected, capture depth explained most of the variation in incidence, with comparatively small effects of season, sex, and size categories. Measurements of whole body and gonad density provided limited explanation for the categorical effects. Both fisheries spanned a range of depths (7.6 to 16.8 m) that corresponded to a broad range of barotrauma incidence (13 to 74%). Using a recent example, we estimated that additional fishing mortality due to barotrauma in discards was approximately six-fold higher in the commercial than recreational fishery. Overall, this additional mortality was <1% of lake-wide population size estimates. Thus, the assumption that all discarded Yellow Perch survive is unlikely to result in a detectable bias in population estimates. One caveat is that we still do not understand how strong year-classes might influence discard mortality via increased discard rate and barotrauma incidence for small fish.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Activity patterns of bats during the fall and spring along ridgelines in the central Appalachians

Many central Appalachian ridges offer high wind potential, making them attractive to future wind-energy development. Understanding seasonal and hourly activity patterns of migratory bat species may help to reduce fatalities at wind-energy facilities and provide guidance for the development of best management practices for bats. To examine hourly migratory bat activity patterns in the fall and spring in Virginia in an exploratory fashion with a suite of general temporal, environmental, and weather variables, we acoustically monitored bat activity on five ridgelines and side slopes from early September through mid-November 2015 and 2016 and from early March through late April 2016 and 2017. On ridges, bat activity decreased through the autumn sample period, but was more variable through the spring sample period. In autumn, migratory bat activity had largely ceased by mid-November. Activity patterns were species specific in both autumn and spring sample periods. Generally, migratory bat activity was negatively associated with hourly wind speeds but positively associated with ambient temperatures. These data provide further evidence that operational mitigation strategies at wind-energy facilities could help protect migratory bat species in the Appalachians; substantially slowing or locking wind turbine blade spin during periods of low wind speeds, often below where electricity is generated, and warm ambient temperatures may minimize mortality during periods of high bat activity.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2022

Comparison of indices to infer population dynamics of black brant

To aid managers in assessing status of Pacific black brant Branta bernicla nigricans (hereafter brant), I examined pre-existing long-term data series from summer, fall staging, and wintering areas to infer overall population processes and assessed the utility of the various data sources. Variation in demographic parameters measured in subarctic and Arctic locations suggests some form of metapopulation structure likely exists for brant. I used serial autocorrelation coefficients to assess the ability of various indices to track population processes. Based on this approach, the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and the fall aerial survey estimate partitioned using age ratios of staging brant at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, appear to be the best indicators. However, these two indexes show different trends for the overall brant population. The Lincoln–Petersen estimates showed biologically implausible changes in size among sequential years, whereas the fall Izembek index did not. Annual estimates of survival and productivity fit the patterns of annual variation in the fall Izembek index better than the Lincoln–Petersen estimates. I conclude that the fall age–partitioned Izembek Lagoon index appears to be the best for tracking population processes in brant.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2021

Assessment of cereal grain waste densities to aid waterfowl conservation planning in the Klamath Basin

Postharvest waste seed from cereal grains is a major dietary component of waterfowl in the Klamath Basin in northeastern California and southeastern Oregon, a region that plays host to over a million waterfowl annually. Understanding food abundance is critical to local waterfowl management; therefore, we conducted a study in 2008 to investigate waste grain densities in barley, oat, and wheat fields. We used hierarchal mixed effect models to assess several factors that may affect waste grain densities postharvest. We also compared the effects of residue management practices to measure the effect of these treatments. To understand the scope of postharvest practices, we conducted a weekly road survey to document treatments applied to fields in our study area. We found that region best explained the variance of postharvest waste grain in barley fields, where the Tule Lake region had 89% greater densities than Lower Klamath. Neither harvester age nor baling affected waste grain in oats fields. In wheat fields, the model containing region and lodging ranked highest, where the Tule Lake region had 66% greater waste densities than Lower Klamath, and lodging increased waste grain by 70%. Burning did not reduce waste grain in barley or oat fields. Chisel-disking reduced waste grain by 94% in wheat fields compared with postharvest. Our field treatment survey found that 70% of barley fields were untreated while 18% were disked and 13% were burned and flooded. We estimated that 82% of oat fields were burned postharvest, while 18% were burned and flooded. In wheat, 61% of fields were left untreated, while 16% were disked, 8% were chisel-plowed, and 7% were flooded postharvest. Flooding and burning occurred primarily on National Wildlife Refuges, while disking, chisel-plowing, and postharvest irrigation occurred solely on private properties. Our results indicate that reducing tillage treatments would boost accessibility of cereal grain food resources to waterfowl in the Klamath Basin, and incentives to flood grain fields on private properties should be considered for the same purpose when and where possible.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2021

Are Cisco and Lake Whitefish competitors? An analysis of historical fisheries in Michigan waters of the Upper Laurentian Great Lakes

Historically, Cisco Coregonus artedi and Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis were abundant throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes, but overharvest, habitat degradation, and interactions with exotic species caused most populations to collapse by the mid-1900s. Strict commercial fishery regulations and improved environmental and ecological conditions allowed Cisco to partially recover only in Lake Superior, whereas Lake Whitefish recovered in all the upper Great Lakes (Superior, Michigan, and Huron). The differential responses of Cisco and Lake Whitefish to improved environmental and ecological conditions in lakes Michigan and Huron have led to questions about potential negative interactions between these species. To provide context for fishery managers, we tested for positive and negative correlations between historical (1929–1970) Cisco and Lake Whitefish commercial gill net catch per effort (CPE; kg/km of net) at a variety of spatial scales in Michigan waters of the upper Great Lakes. The three best-fit spatial models—LAKEWIDE, REGIONAL 10, and SIMPLE—all had similar levels of support (scaled second-order Akaike Information Criterion < 3.0), and we used these models to determine whether there was a significant correlation between Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE (positive and negative). There was either no correlation between Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE or a positive correlation for most (12 of 13) pairwise (Cisco–Lake Whitefish) comparisons. We identified no strong positive or negative correlations in the lakewide (LAKEWIDE) or reduced (SIMPLE) models. In the regional model (REGIONAL 10), we identified strong and positive correlations between Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE in two regions (ρ = 0.59–0.71) and a weak negative correlation in one region (ρ = −0.45). Collectively, our findings suggest that Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE were largely independent of each other; thus, these species likely did not interact to the detriment of one another in Michigan waters of the upper Great Lakes during 1929–1970.

Michigan↗

USGS2014

Productivity of functional guilds of fishes in managed wetlands in coastal South Carolina

In coastal South Carolina, many wetlands are impounded and managed as migratory waterfowl habitat. Impoundment effects on fish production and habitat quality largely are unknown. We used the size-frequency method to estimate summer production of fish guilds in three impoundments along the Combahee River, South Carolina. We predicted that guild-specific production would vary with impoundment salinity, which ranged from 3 to 21 practical salinity units. We expected that marine species that use the estuary as nursery habitat would have greatest production in the impoundment with the highest salinity regime, and that species that inhabit the upper reaches of the estuary would have greatest production in the impoundment with the lowest salinity regime. Finally, we expected that estuarine species would be highly productive in all study impoundments, because these species can reproduce within these structures. We found that guild-specific productivity varied both among years and among impoundments, generally following salinity gradients, though to a lesser extent than expected. Our guild-specific estimates of fish productivity fell on the low end of the range of previously published estuarine fish production estimates. Additionally, we observed large mortality events in the study impoundments each summer. The results of our study indicate that during the summer, the study impoundments provided poor-quality fish habitat to all guilds.

South Carolina↗

USGS2025

Detection probabilities of Flathead Catfish in small Kansas impoundments

A primary challenge of Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris management is uncertainty associated with sampling strategies and resulting ambiguity in population-level information. Assessment of impoundment and environmental conditions that affect detection probability may aid in reducing sample variance and benefit inferences regarding changes to Flathead Catfish populations. We sampled eight small impoundments in Kansas (37–114 surface ha) using low-frequency electrofishing in summer, 2021. We revisited sites nine times over three months using an occupancy modeling framework to estimate the influence of impoundment and environmental conditions on detection probability of Flathead Catfish. We employed an information theoretic approach and ranked models built with impoundment as a random effect and three environmental variables predicted to influence detection of Flathead Catfish in small impoundments. Detection probability across all populations was 0.526 (SE = 0.020) and was influenced by water temperature, mean depth of the impoundment, and proportion of impoundment sampled. Generally, detection probability increased with all measured variables. The inclusion of detection probability in assessments of Flathead Catfish in small impoundments can inform interpretation of catch-related metrics. Further, variable detection suggests collection of multiple samples during a defined sampling period might be more suitable for characterizing populations than a single sample.

Kansas↗

USGS2018

Fish misidentification and potential implications to monitoring within the San Francisco Estuary, California

Fish monitoring programs often rely on the collection, species identification, and counting of individual fish over time to inform natural resource management decisions. Thus, the utility of the data used to inform these decisions can be negatively affected by species misidentification. Fish species misidentification bias can be minimized by confirming identification using genetic techniques, training observers, or adjusting monitoring data using estimates of incomplete detection and false-positive misidentification. Despite the existence of well-established fish identification training and quality control programs, there is considerable uncertainty about fish species false-positive misidentification rates and the effectiveness of fish identification training programs within the San Francisco Estuary. We evaluated the misidentification of fish species among Delta Juvenile Fish Monitoring Program observers by conducting five fish identification exams under controlled conditions at the Lodi Fish and Wildlife Office in Lodi, California, between 2012 and 2014. To assess the variability in false-positive misidentification, we fitted data to species and observer characteristics using hierarchical logistic regression. We found that fish species misidentification was fairly common, averaging 17% among 155 test specimens and 32 observers. False-positive misidentification varied considerably among species and was negatively related to fish size, the abundance of the species within monitoring samples, and observer experience. In addition, observers who were not formally trained or used as full-time observers were, on average, 6.0 times more likely to falsely identify a species. However, false-positive misidentification rates among observers and specimens still varied considerably after controlling for observer experience and training, and species and size, respectively. Our results could be used to improve fish identification training and testing, increase the accuracy of fish occupancy or abundance estimation, and justify the allocation of resources to continually use and formally train full-time observers within long-term monitoring programs operating in the system.

California↗

USGS2023

Environment affects sucker catch rate, size structure, species composition, and precision in boat electrofishing samples

Catostomidae (catostomids) are suckers of the order Cypriniformes, and the majority of species are native to North America; however, species in this group are understudied and rarely managed. The popularity in bowfishing and gigging for suckers in the United States has increased concerns related to overfishing. Little information exists about the relative gear effectiveness for sampling catostomids. We sought to evaluate the relative effectiveness of boat electrofishing for sampling Black Redhorse Moxostoma duquesnei , Golden Redhorse M. erythrurum , Northern Hogsucker Hypentelium nigricans , White Sucker Catostomus commersonii , and Spotted Sucker Minytrema melanops populations in Lake Eucha, Oklahoma. We used an information theoretic approach to determine the abiotic variables related to sucker catch per effort ( C / f ). Our analysis indicated that sucker C / f was highest during the night and decreased with increasing water temperature. Sucker size structure was significantly different between daytime and nighttime samples; however, effect size estimates for size structure comparisons indicated that size distributions exhibited moderate overlap. Distributional comparisons indicated that daytime and nighttime samples were similar for fish greater than 180 mm in total length. Effect size estimates also indicated little association between the proportion of each species captured and time of day or water temperature. Night electrofishing in reservoirs at water temperatures from 16 to 25°C yielded the most precise C / f estimates, with the highest numbers of suckers collected at water temperatures from 6 to 15°C. Further study of the relationship between abiotic variables and catostomid catchability using various gears will be beneficial to agencies interested in these populations.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2018

Inventory of lowland-breeding birds on the Alaska Peninsula

We conducted the first systematic inventory of birds in the lowlands (areas ≤100 m above sea level) of the Alaska Peninsula during summers of 2004–2007 to determine their breeding distributions and habitat associations in this remote region. Using a stratified random survey design, we allocated sample plots by elevation and land cover with a preference for wetland cover types used by shorebirds, a group of particular interest to land managers. We surveyed birds during 10-min counts at 792 points across 52, 5 km × 5 km sample plots distributed from south of the Naknek River (58.70°N,157.00°W) to north of Port Moller (56.00°N,160.52°W). We detected 95 bird species including 19 species of shorebirds and 34 species (36% of total) considered at the time to be of conservation concern for the land managers in the region. The most numerous shorebirds on point counts were dunlin Calidris alpina, short-billed dowitcher Limnodromus griseus, and Wilson's snipe Gallinago delicata. We found the breeding-season endemic marbled godwit Limosa fedoa beringiae at 20 plots within a 3,000-km 2 area from north of Ugashik Bay to just north of Port Heiden and east to the headwaters of the Dog Salmon and Ugashik rivers. The most abundant passerines on point counts were American tree sparrow Spizelloides arborea, Lapland longspur Calcarius lapponicus, and savannah sparrow Passerculus sandwichensis. Sandhill crane Antigone canadensis, glaucous-winged gull Larus glaucescens, and greater scaup Aythya marila were also relatively abundant. We categorized habitat associations for 30 common species and found that lowland herbaceous vegetation supported wetland-focused species including sandhill crane, marbled godwit, short-billed dowitcher, and dunlin; whereas, dwarf shrub-ericaceous vegetation supported tundra-associated species such as willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus, rock sandpiper Calidris ptilocnemis, and American pipit Anthus rubescens . Tall shrub vegetation was important to several species of warblers and sparrows, as well as one species of shorebird (greater yellowlegs Tringa melanoleuca ). We found that point counts augmented with incidental observations provided an almost complete inventory of lowland-breeding species on the study area. These data form a baseline to monitor any future changes in bird distribution and abundance on the Alaska Peninsula.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Comparison of structures used to estimate age and growth of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout

Understanding age and growth of fishes is critical for making meaningful management decisions. Obtaining useful information is dependent on using the best structure (e.g., scale, otolith). The objective of this study was to evaluate precision and reader confidence in age estimates from sagittal otoliths (i.e., whole, sectioned) and scales for Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri collected from Henrys Lake, Idaho. We also sought to compare growth estimates among structures sampled during annual gill net surveys in May 2019 and 2020. We removed sagittal otoliths and scales from 416 Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout. Two readers without prior knowledge of fish length independently aged scales, whole otoliths, and sectioned otoliths. Each reader also provided a confidence rating of 0 (not confident) to 3 (completely confident). Percent exact agreement between readers was highest for sectioned otoliths (85.3%), followed by scales (68.5%) and whole otoliths (66.1%). Average confidence rating was highest for sectioned (mean ± SD = 2.2 ± 0.6) and whole (1.4 ± 0.5) otoliths and lowest for scales (1.0 ± 0.2). Among structures, percent exact agreement (i.e., consensus age) was highest between whole and sectioned otoliths (66.7%), followed by scales and sectioned otoliths (58.9%). Exact agreement was lowest between scales and whole otoliths (51.2%). Differences in back-calculated length at age estimates between sectioned otoliths and scales were minimal, particularly for ages 1–4. Although sectioned otoliths required more time to prepare than scales or whole otoliths, sectioned otoliths produced the most precise age estimates for Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout, with the highest reader confidence.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Nonbreeding duck use at Central Flyway National Wildlife Refuges

Within the U.S. portion of the Central Flyway, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages waterfowl on numerous individual units (i.e., Refuges) within the National Wildlife Refuge System. Presently, the extent of waterfowl use that Refuges receive and the contribution of Refuges to waterfowl populations (i.e., the proportion of the Central Flyway population registered at each Refuge) remain unassessed. Such an evaluation would help determine to what extent Refuges support waterfowl relative to stated targets, aid in identifying species requiring management attention, inform management targets, and improve fiscal efficiencies. Using historic monitoring data (1954–2008), we performed this assessment for 23 Refuges in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska during migration and wintering months (October–March). We examined six dabbling ducks and two diving ducks, plus all dabbling ducks and all diving ducks across two periods (long-term [all data] and short-term [last 10 October–March periods]). Individual Refuge use was represented by the sum of monthly duck count averages for October–March. We used two indices of Refuge contribution: peak contribution and January contribution. Peak contribution was the highest monthly count average for each October–March period divided by the indexed population total for the Central Flyway in the corresponding year; January contribution used the January count average divided by the corresponding population index. Generally, Refuges in Kansas, Nebraska, and New Mexico recorded most use and contribution for mallards Anas platyrhynchos . Refuges along the Texas Gulf Coast recorded most use and contribution for other dabbling ducks, with Laguna Atascosa and Aransas (including Matagorda Island) recording most use for diving ducks. The long-term total January contribution of the assessed Refuges to ducks wintering in the Central Flyway was greatest for green-winged teal Anas crecca with 35%; 12–15% for American wigeon Mareca americana , gadwall Mareca strepera , and northern pintail Anas acuta ; and 7–8% for mallard and mottled duck Anas fulvigula . Results indicated that the reliance on the National Wildlife Refuge System decreased for these ducks, with evidence suggesting that, for several species, the assessed Refuges may be operating at carrying capacity. Future analyses could be more detailed and informative were Refuges to implement a single consistent survey methodology that incorporated estimations of detection bias in the survey process, while concomitantly recording habitat metrics on and neighboring each Refuge.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2020

A comparison of Grass Carp population characteristics upstream and downstream of Lock and Dam 19 of the Upper Mississippi River

Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella have been intentionally stocked for aquatic vegetation control across the Midwestern United States for several decades. During the 1970s, escapement of Grass Carp into the Missouri River facilitated their naturalization into much of the Mississippi River basin, including the Upper Mississippi River. Lock and Dam 19 (LD19) in Keokuk, Iowa, is a high-head dam that represents a focal point for naturalized Grass Carp management where populations may differ between upstream and downstream pools as result of limited upstream migration, but potential differences between populations have yet to be evaluated to the best of our knowledge. The objective of this study was to compare the relative abundance, size structure, condition, growth, and recruitment variability of Grass Carp collected upstream and downstream of LD19. We sampled Grass Carp monthly (April–October) during 2014 and 2015 from four locations in the Des Moines River (downstream of LD19) and five locations throughout the Skunk, Iowa, and Cedar rivers (upstream of LD19) using boat electrofishing and trammel net sets. We captured 29 Grass Carp upstream of LD19 compared with 179 individuals captured downstream. Trammel nets only captured Grass Carp downstream of LD19; trammel net catch per unit effort upstream of LD19 was low and ranged from 0.0 to 8.0 fish/net lift (mean ± SE = 0.39 ± 0.13). Electrofishing catch per unit effort ranged from 0.0 to 22.7 fish/h (1.49 ± 0.30) and was higher downstream (2.42 ± 0.30) of LD19 than upstream (0.57 ± 0.07). Grass Carp downstream of LD19 tended to be smaller, younger, of lower body condition, had higher mortality rates, and were slower growing compared with those collected upstream and to populations documented in other systems. Understanding and monitoring adult Grass Carp population characteristics upstream and downstream of LD19 is necessary to determine how they may change in response to ongoing harvest efforts for invasive carps in these river reaches.

Iowa↗

USGS2014

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗