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1,660 records · Page 81Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Debris avalanches in the northern California Coast Range triggered by plate boundary earthquakes

Determining the timing and cause for ancient hillslope failures proves difficult in the western United States, yet critical as it ties directly into groundmotion estimates for hazardous events. This knowledge gap is important to confront as hillslope failures are candidates to be triggered by earthquakes along active plate boundaries. We identify two prehistoric, i.e., preinstrumental history, debris avalanches (3 10^6 and 6 10^6 m^3) in the Coast Ranges of northern California. These debris avalanches are well suited for studying the timing (to the exact year) and trigger as the densely forested landscape enables effective use of dendrochronology and high-resolution radiocarbon to pinpoint time of failure, and the legacy of landslide studies in the region provides context for evaluating a seismic trigger as the most likely triggering mechanism. Neither debris avalanche was triggered by the largest precipitation event of the instrumental record in 1964 CE, and the two debris avalanche sites are physiographically suited to accommodate topographic amplification of seismic shaking. Through a suite of geologic and dendrochronologic evidence, we establish the likely time of failure of the two debris avalanches as 1906 CE and 933 CE. The failure of the younger landslide coincides with the 1906 CE San Francisco earthquake on the Pacific/North American plate boundary, while the older landslide dates to 933 CE falling within the broad age range (850-966 CE) of a likely megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone as recorded in coastal marshes in Humboldt Bay, California. The precise age on the 933 CE debris avalanche could trim the uncertainty on a Cascadia subduction zone event from 116 years to one year. Utilizing debris avalanche records from sites suitable to record seismic shaking improves understanding of plate-boundary earthquake timing and extent of shaking.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Foundational uncertainties in terminal Ediacaran chronostratigraphy revealed by high-precision zircon U-Pb geochronology of the Nama Group, Namibia

The Nama Group of southern Namibia and northwestern South Africa hosts the best-dated mixed carbonate-siliciclastic foreland basin succession of the terminal Ediacaran [ca. 551 million years (Ma) ago to <538 Ma] and is key for resolving the chronology of early metazoan evolution. Numerous silicified volcanic tuff interbeds are present, but differing interpretations regarding the fidelity of their ages lead to different regional stratigraphic correlations, especially for the Urusis Formation of the Schwarzrand Subgroup. An expanded record of the Urusis Formation is found in the Swartpunt area of southern Namibia, which has yielded an important metazoan biota. But the succession in this area is preserved as a series of thrusts at the leading edge of the Gariep orogenic belt and zircon U-Pb data show systematic age repetition. We use regional stratigraphic and structural mapping, integrated with carbonate carbon isotope (δ 13 C carb ) chemostratigraphy and high-precision radioisotope U-Pb zircon geochronology from outcrop and recently acquired drill core to develop a temporally calibrated basin-wide depositional model. This integrated dataset either reflects complex zircon reworking, inheritance, or potential analytical biases (Scenario 1) or the presence of a Gariep-related cryptic décollement within the Spitskop Member that has resulted in stratigraphic repetition (Scenario 2). We investigate the evidence for and against both scenarios and consider their implications for stratigraphic and δ 13 C carb correlations between the Swartpunt area and coeval exposures along the Orange River border with South Africa. Given that these issues are in an area that hosts numerous silicified ash beds and extensive exposure, an inability to confidently discount either scenario highlights a level of compounding uncertainty in zircon U-Pb geochronology that must be considered when attempting to build global chronostratigraphic frameworks. Scenario 1 implies that some of the weighted mean ages and Bayesian eruption ages from the Swartpunt area may be >1 Myr older than the depositional age of their respective ash beds when assuming existing stratigraphic correlations. If this scenario is preferred, then a cautious approach would be to consider all weighted mean zircon U-Pb ages from ash beds to reflect maximum depositional ages. Both scenarios support deposition of the Huns Member >540 Ma in the Swartpunt area if the oldest weighted mean age reported here represents a near-depositional age, which has significant implications for the temporal calibration of important terminal Ediacaran ichnofossil assemblages and future cyclostratigraphic studies. Stratigraphic correlations common to both scenarios allow us to temporally calibrate a basin evolution model for the Nama Group. Temporal trends in initial hafnium isotope (εHf) compositions of zircon grains from ash beds throughout the succession may support progressive crustal thickening associated with underplating of the Damara orogenic belt along the northern periphery of the Kalahari craton from ca. 547 Ma to ca. 538 Ma. The compilation of new and published zircon U-Pb ages may also imply that the locus of carbonate platform development migrated from north to south (present co-ordinates), tracking the migration of foredeep subsidence.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2025

Disparate groundwater responses to wildfire

Post-wildfire investigations of groundwater response reveal a range of outcomes, varying from substantial increases to notable decreases in recharge and baseflow, with some studies indicating negligible or short-lived effects. This review assesses these varied responses within five critical categories: climate, vegetation, hydrogeology, fire characteristics, and the cryosphere, examining both short-term (within 2 years) and intermediate (2–10 years post-fire) effects. Despite considerable variability, some consistent patterns emerge. For instance, in hydroclimatic settings where water input and evaporative demand cycles are out of sync, post-wildfire groundwater responses tend to be positive (i.e., increased flux or storage), whereas under low fire severity conditions or in vegetation types that quickly recover, groundwater responses tend to be negative (i.e., decreased flux or storage). We synthesize relevant findings into a compendium of testable hypotheses aimed at explaining the spatiotemporal variability in observed post-wildfire groundwater responses. A recurring theme is the critical influence of the pre-wildfire groundwater regime on expected response and recovery. We identify opportunities for specific improvements in post-wildfire monitoring and modeling that would further advance capabilities to predict groundwater response. A key area for further research is understanding how wildfire effects on snow dynamics and other cryospheric processes translate to changes in groundwater.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2025

Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology

Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a dimensionless index for landslide-inducing rainfall, A * , based on extremes of modeled soil water relative to its local climatology. We calibrate A * using four landslide inventories, comprising over 11 000 individual landslides over four unique storm events, and find that a common threshold can be applied to estimate regional shallow-landslide-triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). We then use the spatial distribution of A * , along with topography, to calculate the landslide potential area (LPA) for nine landslide-inducing storm events over the past 20 years, and we test whether atmospheric metrics describing the strength of landfalling storms, such as integrated water vapor transport, correlate with the magnitude of hazardous landslide-inducing rainfall. We find that although the events with the largest LPA do occur during exceptional atmospheric river (AR) storms, the strength of landfalling atmospheric rivers does not scale neatly with landslide potential area, and even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal landslide impacts. Other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture driven by storm frequency and mesoscale precipitation features within storms, are instead more likely to dictate the patterns of landslide-generating rainfall throughout the state.

California↗
USGS2025

A soil velocity model for improved ground motion simulations in the U. S. Pacific Northwest

Near-surface seismic velocity structure may significantly impact the intensity, duration, and frequency content of ground shaking during an earthquake. In this study, we compile 649 shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles throughout the U.S. Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia (PNW) and use these measured profiles to develop a representative soil velocity model for four major Holocene soil provinces: Puget Lowlands, Willamette Valley, fill and alluvium, and `other' soils. The resulting soil velocity model shows good agreement to measured data for a wide range of site conditions, with variability between different geologic domains reflecting fundamental differences in depositional environments. We then show that using this regional soil velocity model in simulations of the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually, Washington earthquake improves the fit to observed high-frequency (≥ 0.5 Hz) ground motions in the Puget Sound region compared to simulations that do not incorporate shallow (≤ 200 m) seismic velocity structure. Overall, this work shows that incorporating localized soil velocity profiles into seismic velocity models is important for accurately estimating high-frequency ground motion and regional seismic hazard in earthquake simulations. Future earthquake simulations and hazard studies in the PNW could incorporate these soil velocity profiles to capture the region's distinct site response characteristics.

Washington↗
USGS2026

The eruptive behavior of distributed volcanism forming low shield edifices—A case study of Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field, U.S.A.

Distributed volcanic fields are present in various tectonic settings worldwide, and their characteristics reflect differing influences from magmatic and tectonic processes. In the southwestern United States alone, there are 37 Quaternary distributed volcanic fields. After the primary period of extensional tectonics in the southern Basin and Range 15–5 million years ago, the Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field developed in southwestern Arizona between 4 and 1 million years ago. The Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field consists primarily of low relief shield volcanoes, a type of distributed volcanism with poorly understood temporal evolution. The Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field is less than 200 kilometers (km) from the Colorado Plateau, Gulf of California, and southern San Andreas Fault system. This work identifies and examines controls on the emplacement of the Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field by documenting shallow and surficial structures as well as eruption characteristics and style through time. The Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field consists of 21 volcanoes with a total of 33 vents over an area of about 770 square kilometers (km 2 ). The prominence of low relief shield volcanoes may be explained by ascent of basaltic magmas through thin Basin and Range crust, without much crustal contamination, and low viscosities common to mafic compositions. Typical eruption characteristics involve the construction of low relief shield volcanoes followed by Strombolian fissure eruptions at the summits or near-summit medial areas that produce scoria lapilli, which may weld to form agglomerate. The total lifetime erupted volume of about 4.3 cubic kilometers (km 3 ) represents an average eruptive flux of approximately 2x10 -3 km 3 per thousand years (k.y.). This erupted volume is low relative to Neogene basaltic intraplate distributed volcanic fields worldwide, which typically range from 10 -3 to 1 km 3 k.y. -1 . Sentinel-Arlington volcanic field eruptions were likely triggered by intermittent rejuvenation of transient magmatic zones that exist in thinned crust. Instantaneous flux from point sources feeding the lava flows is estimated to be on the order of 10 -1 to 10 cubic meters per second.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

Parsimonious high-resolution landslide susceptibility modeling at continental scales

Landslide susceptibility maps are fundamental tools for risk reduction, but the coarse resolution of current continental-scale models is insufficient for local application. Complex relations between topographic and environmental attributes characterizing landslide susceptibility at local scales are not transferrable across areas without landslide data. Existing maps with multiple susceptibility classifications under-represent landslide potential in moderate and gently sloping terrain. We leverage an extensive landslide database ( N = 613,724), a high-resolution digital elevation model (10-m), and high-performance computing resources, to develop a new nationwide susceptibility map for the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. We calculate four alternative linear and nonlinear thresholds of topographic slope and relief using an objective split-sample calibration. We down-sample our results to a 90-m grid to account for uncertainty in the digital elevation model and landslide position, and evaluate these thresholds' ability to differentiate areas of greater susceptibility. The less conservative nonlinear model optimally balances our priorities of capturing observed landslides (99%) while minimizing area covered by susceptible terrain (43%). Independent evaluation with four statewide landslide inventories ( N = 172,367) reinforces our model selection but highlights spatially variable performance. Therefore, we propose a novel approach to susceptibility classification using the concentration of landslide-prone terrain within each down-sampled grid. While landslides are possible within any cells containing susceptible terrain, those with the highest concentration capture the majority of observed landslides. Our new map characterizes landside susceptibility more consistently than prior models; our transparent classification approach also provides flexibility for accommodating different tolerances in risk reduction measures.

AGU Advances↗
USGS2024

Agricultural return flow dynamics on a reach of the East River, Colorado, as assessed by mass balance

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, studied historical streamflow in a reach of the East River, Colorado, to gain a preliminary understanding of return flow dynamics. Return flow is agricultural irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and instead reaches streams by surface and subsurface flow paths. The study reach had a contributing area of 50 square miles and contained 5.23 square miles of pastures irrigated with water diverted from the East River and its tributaries. By comparing upstream inflows to downstream outflows, the net water balance of the study reach from 1994 to 2023 was assessed. Two general hydrologic conditions for the study reach were identified. One hydrologic condition was characterized by a net loss or consumption of water, termed here as general deficit. This general deficit condition extended about 16 years, from 1997 to 2012. During general deficit years, there was usually a notable net loss of streamflow from April through July, and a small net gain, possibly related to return flows, occurred in August about 75 days after the minimums for losses. The second hydrologic condition was characterized by a net gain of water, termed here as general surplus. This second condition extended about 10 years, from 2014 to 2023. During general surplus years, two separate transitions from net loss to net gain commonly occurred during June through August. Losses during general surplus years were smaller than losses during general deficit years, the respective gains were larger, and times between losses and gains were about 18 and 22 days. Differences between the two hydrologic conditions could reflect interactions among irrigation water, available capacity to store additional shallow groundwater, and streamflow. However, deciphering the causes for the shifts between the two general hydrologic conditions was beyond the scope of this report.

Colorado↗
USGS2025

A newly identified creeping strand of the Concord fault, San Francisco Bay Area

The Concord fault constitutes a major branch of the Pacific–North America transform plate boundary in Northern California, bridging the strike‐slip Bartlett Springs ‐ Green Valley Fault system to the north with the Greenville and Calaveras Faults to the south. Like many faults in the San Francisco Bay Area its long‐term slip is partially accommodated by aseismic slip (creep). Although creep has been recognized and monitored on the northern half of the fault for decades, the precise location of the southern half of the fault and its slip rate—whether accommodated seismically or aseismically—has remained enigmatic. How slip transfers between the Concord and Greenville or Calaveras faults to the south remains an outstanding question. New field observations presented here indicate that the active trace of the fault south of downtown Concord is not where previously interpreted and is indeed actively creeping. We report observations of shallow creep continuing >7 km farther south along the Concord fault than previously reported, along a fault strand not previously recognized for most of its length. This is evident as right‐laterally deflected concrete curbs and sidewalk slabs on both sides of every street that crosses the fault at a high angle in southeast Concord and northeast Walnut Creek. We document the magnitude and location of these deflections to estimate accumulated right‐lateral aseismic slip expressed in engineered structures. Offsets of these piercing lines range from 8 to 18 cm, over widths varying from narrow breaks along centimeter‐scale concrete joints to 10‐m‐wide zones of deflection. Significantly, this active trace is ∼400 m west of where the Quaternary active trace has previously been inferred, placing it within—rather than bounding—the built area of suburban Concord. Slip along the fault has already caused infrastructure damage. These results revise our understanding of the southern Concord fault and help constrain its seismic potential.

California↗
USGS2021

Factors influencing distribution of Coccidioides immitis in soil, Washington State, 2016

Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasii are causative agents of Valley fever, a serious fungal disease endemic to regions with hot, arid climate in the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. The environmental niche of Coccidioide s spp. is not well defined, and it remains unknown whether these fungi are primarily associated with rodents or grow as saprotrophs in soil. To better understand the environmental reservoir of these pathogens, we used a systematic soil sampling approach, quantitative PCR (qPCR), culture, whole-genome sequencing, and soil chemical analysis to identify factors associated with the presence of C. immitis at a known colonization site in Washington State linked to a human case in 2010. We found that the same strain colonized an area of over 46,000 m 2 and persisted in soil for over 6 years. No association with rodent burrows was observed, as C. immitis DNA was as likely to be detected inside rodent holes as it was in the surrounding soil. In addition, the presence of C. immitis DNA in soil was correlated with elevated levels of boron, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and silicon in soil leachates. We also observed differences in the microbial communities between C. immitis -positive and -negative soils. Our artificial soil inoculation experiments demonstrated that C. immitis can use soil as a sole source of nutrients. Taken together, these results suggest that soil parameters need to be considered when modeling the distribution of this fungus in the environment.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Computation of regional groundwater budgets for the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system

Computation of detailed groundwater flow budgets for subdivisions of the Virginia Coastal Plain aquifer system has enabled quantification and more thorough understanding of groundwater flow within this important water resource. A zone budget analysis based on previously published groundwater models of the Virginia Coastal Plain and Virginia Eastern Shore indicates that groundwater conditions vary substantially throughout the Coastal Plain aquifer system because of local variations in hydrogeology and historical and ongoing variations in groundwater use and management. Decades of substantial groundwater withdrawal from the Coastal Plain aquifer system have altered groundwater flow from predevelopment conditions. Rates of sustainable withdrawal are limited because the downward groundwater flow rate into confined aquifers is a relatively small part of the total groundwater budget for the aquifer system compared to the rate of recharge at the land surface. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Coastal Plain model indicate that groundwater flow is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to rivers and coastal waterbodies and downward through a series of underlying aquifers and confining units to the Potomac aquifer, which is the deepest aquifer and the source of most groundwater withdrawals. Downward flow into the Potomac aquifer is estimated to be only 7 percent of total net precipitation-derived net recharge at the land surface but makes up about 66 percent of inflow to the aquifer in Virginia, with much of the remaining inflow occurring laterally from outside of defined groundwater budget regions in Virginia. For several decades prior to 2010, high rates of withdrawal from the Potomac aquifer resulted in substantial decline in groundwater storage in the aquifer and in most overlying aquifers and confining units. From 2010 to 2023, rates of withdrawal substantially lower than the historical maximum resulted in small net increases in groundwater storage in the confined aquifer system for most regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Nevertheless, for the same period, groundwater storage for the entire model domain continues to incrementally decline, indicating that storage recovery in Virginia is offset by a continued decrease in storage in areas beneath the Chesapeake Bay or adjacent areas of Maryland and North Carolina. Withdrawals from the Potomac aquifer have induced substantial downward flow which is a large part of groundwater budgets for confined aquifers such as the Potomac. For the most recent simulated conditions (2023) downward groundwater flow continues, but because vertical flow rates are a function of the difference between water pressure in the upper surficial systems and lower confined units, rates of downward flow are lower than those in earlier decades as the confined water levels partially recover from larger groundwater withdrawals in the past. Geographically, groundwater flow is generally inward from perimeter regions of the Virginia Coastal Plain toward central regions with the largest withdrawal rates. Groundwater inflow from coastal regions could be contributing to saltwater intrusion, even though that was not measured in this study. Analyses of groundwater budgets from the Virginia Eastern Shore peninsula, a geographic region of the Virginia Coastal Plain, indicate that groundwater flow for that isolated aquifer system is generally outward from the surficial aquifer to coastal water bodies and downward into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system, which is the source of most withdrawals. Downward groundwater flow into the confined Yorktown-Eastover aquifer system is estimated to be less than 2 percent of total recharge and less than 9 percent of net recharge at the water table but makes up more than 93 percent of all inflow to the confined aquifer system. Decades of substantial but relatively consistent groundwater withdrawals have induced greater downward flow rates into the confined aquifer system but also have resulted in loss of groundwater from storage. For the most recent simulated period (2023), estimated storage loss accounts for slightly under 7 percent of withdrawals from the confined aquifer system. The reported withdrawal rate for this period from the confined Yorktown-Eastover system is near the highest reported rate for the Virginia Eastern Shore, which means that the storage depletion is expected to continue, even though groundwater levels appear to be relatively stable. Estimated groundwater flow rates upward from the confining unit underlying the Yorktown-Eastover system and low rates of inflow from coastal water bodies underscore ongoing concerns about up-coning and lateral intrusion of salty groundwater.

Virginia↗
USGS2025

Extremophile hotspots linked to containerized industrial waste dumping in a deep-sea basin

Decaying barrels on the seafloor linked to DDT contamination have raised concerns about the public health implications of decades old industrial waste dumped off the coast of Los Angeles. To explore their contents, we collected sediment cores perpendicular to five deep-sea barrels. The concentration of DDT and its breakdown products were highly elevated relative to control sites yet did not vary with distance from the barrels, suggesting that they were not associated with the contamination. Sediment cores collected through white halos surrounding three barrels were enriched in calcite and had elevated pH. The associated microbial communities were low diversity and dominated by alkalophilic bacteria with metagenome-assembled genomes adapted to high pH. A solid concretion sampled between a white halo and barrel was composed of brucite, a magnesium hydroxide mineral that forms at high pH. Based on these findings, we postulate that leakage of containerized alkaline waste triggered the formation of mineral concretions that are slowly dissolving and raising the pH of the surrounding sediment pore water. This selects for taxa adapted to extreme alkalinity and drives the precipitation of “anthropogenic” carbonates forming white halos, which serve as a visual identifier of barrels that contained alkaline waste. Remarkably, containerized alkaline waste discarded >50 years ago represents a persistent pollutant creating localized mineral formations and microbial communities that resemble those observed at some hydrothermal systems. These formations were observed at one-third of the visually identified barrels in the San Pedro Basin and have unforeseen, long-term consequences for benthic communities in the region.

California↗
USGS2026

Advancing outreach effectiveness to improve conservation practice adoption

Agricultural conservation practices are central to achieving Chesapeake Bay watershed restoration goals, yet long-term adoption remains challenging even when practices are technically effective and financial assistance is available. Adoption is not a single decision, but a staged and context-dependent process. Awareness and willingness to commitment, implementation, and persistence, are all important. Progress along this pathway is influenced by interacting factors such as knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, social norms, trust, perceived risk, farm characteristics, and practical constraints. Improving adoption requires outreach strategies that respond to the specific factors limiting progress at each stage rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all approach.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2025

Groundwater response to managed aquifer recharge at the Southeast Houghton Artificial Recharge Project in Tucson, Arizona

Managed aquifer recharge is a widespread practice for storing water in the subsurface as groundwater. At a managed aquifer recharge facility in southern Arizona, groundwater-level and repeat microgravity data were collected to monitor aquifer response. These data were used to inform parameter identification for an unsaturated-zone flow model used to simulate the recharge process. The facility, the Southeast Houghton Artificial Recharge Project (SHARP), consists of 3 surface basins (about 27,600 square meters [6.8 acres] total surface area) where recycled water is distributed in recharge cycles lasting several months, with dry periods in between. During the study period, December 2020–December 2022, Tucson Water (the City of Tucson’s water utility) reported 6.56×10 6 cubic meters of water (5,320 acre-feet) recharged. Monitoring included groundwater-level observations at 3 monitoring wells and repeat microgravity measurements at as many as 22 locations (some stations were destroyed between surveys). Six gravity surveys were carried out using absolute- and relative-gravity meters. Large gravity increases, more than 250 microgals, were observed during the first repeat survey, 3.5 months after the start of recharge, but only in the immediate vicinity of the recharge basins. Data show that water moved downward to the water table, and storage changes in the unsaturated zone away from the facility were likely minimal. Gravity decreased at stations more than 1 kilometer from the facility, consistent with regional groundwater-level changes. Groundwater-level increases in wells adjacent to the recharge basins began 2 months after the second repeat gravity survey, and 5.5 months after recharge began. Unsaturated-zone flow modeling was carried out using software that simulates water movement and parameter estimation. Model calibration was carried out by minimizing an objective function calculated from the differences between simulated and observed groundwater levels, and between simulated and observed repeat microgravity data. Including repeat microgravity data in the objective function reduced the uncertainty in estimated parameter values for saturated hydraulic conductivity and saturated water content. Modeling indicated that the unsaturated zone between the recharge basins and the water table does not become saturated even after 685 days of simulated infiltration. This gradual wetting may account for increasing infiltration rates over time, as hydraulic conductivity increases with increasing water content. Unsaturated-zone water content decreased rapidly between recharge cycles. Model-simulated groundwater mounding extended about 1 kilometer from the center of SHARP after the 685-day period following the onset of recharge.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

Correction to A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

In the referenced article, the authors would like to correct text in the first paragraph on page 2571, Figure 9 and its caption. The changes reflect an error made in the processing of the rainfall intensity-duration data used to compare storms to published debris flow triggering thresholds. The correctly processed data does not change the interpretations made in the paper but does correctly indicate that the investigated storms did not exceed the rainfall intensity – duration threshold of Cannon (1988) but did significantly exceed the debris flow triggering threshold of Wieczorek (1987).

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗
USGS2026

The potential impact of three-dimensional distributed slip models derived from real-time GNSS data on the performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for slab interface earthquakes

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning (EEW) system is designed to warn users of imminent strong ground motion with sufficient time to take protective actions. ShakeAlert currently uses three algorithms to characterize the earthquake source. One estimates the location and magnitude using the first few seconds of the P wave and, while fast, tends to underestimate magnitude for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. A second estimates the location, orientation, length, and corresponding magnitude of a line source using observed peak ground acceleration and contributes primarily to M w 5.5+ earthquakes. The third infers earthquake magnitude from peak ground displacement measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and offers nonsaturating magnitudes for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. Other EEW algorithms exist that infer temporally evolving spatially variable slip on a 3D fault surface from real‐time GNSS data, information that might enable more accurate and timely alerts in the event of large‐magnitude subduction interface earthquakes. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of one such algorithm, BEFORES ( Minson et al. , 2014 ), to improve ShakeAlert performance through a simulated real‐time implementation of Bayesian evidence‐based fault orientation and real‐time earthquake slip (BEFORES) and other ShakeAlert algorithms using data for eight M w 7.6+ earthquakes. The test results demonstrate that BEFORES can produce well‐constrained and accurate magnitude estimates as soon as or sooner than other EEW algorithms, in turn enabling it to increase the amount of warning time users receive in many cases. However, with a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold of 3.5, which is commonly used for issuing alerts, BEFORES would tend to alert large geographic regions that did not feel strong shaking (MMI 6+). This effect can be mitigated using a higher alert threshold of MMI 4.5 without negative impact on the amount of warning time obtainable with BEFORES.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Unscrambling the Proterozoic supercontinent record of northeastern Washington State, USA

The time interval from Supercontinent Nuna assembly in the late Paleoproterozoic to Supercontinent Rodinia breakup in the Neoproterozoic is considered by some geologists to comprise the “Boring Billion,” an interval possibly marked by a slowdown in plate tectonic processes. In northeastern Washington State, USA, similar to much of western Laurentia, early workers generally thought the tectonostratigraphic framework of this interval of geologic time consisted of two major sequences, the (ca. 1480–1380 Ma) Mesoproterozoic Belt Supergroup and unconformably overlying (<720 Ma) Neoproterozoic Windermere Supergroup. However, recent research indicates that strata considered by early workers as Belt Supergroup equivalents are actually younger, and a post-Belt, pre-Windermere record is present within the <1360 Ma Deer Trail Group and <760 Ma Buffalo Hump Formation. Thus, the northeastern Washington region perhaps comprises the most complete stratigraphic record of the “Boring Billion” time interval in the northwestern United States and holds important insights into global Proterozoic supercontinent tectonic processes. In light of these exciting developments, this field guide will address the early historic economic geology and original mapping of these Proterozoic sequences in the northeastern Washington region, and from that foundation explore more recent isotopic provenance data and their regional to global context. Finally, the guide will end with a discussion of remaining questions with a goal of stimulating interest in these relatively understudied, yet important, rocks.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

Hawaii↗