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Opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model to improve seismic risk assessment of critical infrastructure.

As fragility and risk modeling techniques and computational capabilities evolve, complemented by moving toward more routine and systematic seismic risk assessment of all buildings and critical infrastructure, the authors pose a few critical questions to investigate how the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) can be used and enhanced further to serve such issues. In this paper, we use three examples from multiple sectors to (1) identify the role of USGS NSHMs in evaluating seismic risks to critical infrastructure, (2) quantify potential impacts from NSHM enhancements (i.e., [i] hazard curves for the vertical component of ground motion, [ii] stochastic event sets, and [iii] maps of probabilistic ground failure hazards), and (3) clarify the feasibility of relevant NSHM improvements. We illuminate that NSHMs are commonly used in location-specific performance assessments, whereas earthquake effects on critical infrastructure can be widespread across large geospatial regions. Further, we found that without the NSHM extensions considered here, risk can be severely underestimated, e.g., neglecting ground failure hazards can underestimate regional loss by a factor of two or more. Although many challenges remain, we developed example prototypes to clarify the feasibility of the NSHM extensions, which can facilitate improved management of risks to critical infrastructure.

Earthquake Spectra Journal

Updating regional‐scale geospatial liquefaction models with locally available geotechnical data

We present a method to update the geospatial liquefaction model used by the U.S. Geological Survey’s near‐real‐time ground failure product with subsurface geotechnical data. The geospatial model estimates liquefaction probability from peak ground velocity (via ShakeMap) and geospatial susceptibility proxies. In many regions, additional information relevant to constraining liquefaction likelihood is also available, including surface geology maps and subsurface geotechnical measurements. There is currently no mechanism to use these data in the ground failure product liquefaction model, even though these data could provide more precise constraints on spatial variations in the lithologic character of the soil (surface geology) and direct measurements of the subsurface mechanical properties that affect liquefaction occurrence and severity (geotechnical measurements). In this study, we develop a method to integrate these data with the geospatial model and assess how these data can improve regional‐scale predictions. We develop a Bayesian updating framework and apply it to the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake, for which mapped observations are available to evaluate performance. We constrain the Bayesian framework with 373 Northern California cone penetration tests and liquefaction susceptibility classes based on the mapped surface geology. This Bayesian model incorporates geotechnical information into the geospatial model and more accurately predicts liquefaction occurrences than the geospatial model, while sacrificing less accuracy in terms of predicting the absence of liquefaction than the geotechnical model. In future applications, this approach could be adapted to update other geospatial models using locally available subsurface data.

California

Testing megathrust rupture models using tsunami deposits

The 26 January 1700 CE Cascadia subduction zone earthquake ruptured much of the plate boundary and generated a tsunami that deposited sand in coastal marshes from northern California to Vancouver Island. Although the depositional record of tsunami inundation is extensive in some of these marshes, few sites have been investigated in enough detail to map the inland extent of sand deposition and depict variability in tsunami deposit thickness and grain size. We collected 129 cores in marshes of the Salmon River estuary in Oregon and reanalyzed 114 core logs from a 1987–88 study that mapped the inland extent of circa 1700 CE sandy tsunami deposits. The ca. 1700 CE tsunami deposit in the Salmon River estuary is easily recognized in cores ≤1 m deep in which a buried marsh peat is overlain by a well sorted sand bed with a sharp lower contact that thins and fines inland. We use tsunami deposit data and models of sandy tsunami sediment transport (using Delft3D-FLOW) to test 15 rupture models that could represent a ca. 1700 CE earthquake. At least 12–16 m of slip offshore of the Salmon River, which results in 0.8–1.0 m of coastal coseismic subsidence, is required to match the ca. 1700 CE sand deposit's inland extent, which is consistent with models of heterogeneous megathrust slip in ca. 1700 CE. Our methods of detailed tsunami deposit mapping, combined with sediment transport modeling, can be used to test models of megathrust ruptures and their tsunamis to potentially improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessments.

JGR Earth Surface

A newly identified creeping strand of the Concord fault, San Francisco Bay Area

The Concord fault constitutes a major branch of the Pacific–North America transform plate boundary in Northern California, bridging the strike‐slip Bartlett Springs ‐ Green Valley Fault system to the north with the Greenville and Calaveras Faults to the south. Like many faults in the San Francisco Bay Area its long‐term slip is partially accommodated by aseismic slip (creep). Although creep has been recognized and monitored on the northern half of the fault for decades, the precise location of the southern half of the fault and its slip rate—whether accommodated seismically or aseismically—has remained enigmatic. How slip transfers between the Concord and Greenville or Calaveras faults to the south remains an outstanding question. New field observations presented here indicate that the active trace of the fault south of downtown Concord is not where previously interpreted and is indeed actively creeping. We report observations of shallow creep continuing >7 km farther south along the Concord fault than previously reported, along a fault strand not previously recognized for most of its length. This is evident as right‐laterally deflected concrete curbs and sidewalk slabs on both sides of every street that crosses the fault at a high angle in southeast Concord and northeast Walnut Creek. We document the magnitude and location of these deflections to estimate accumulated right‐lateral aseismic slip expressed in engineered structures. Offsets of these piercing lines range from 8 to 18 cm, over widths varying from narrow breaks along centimeter‐scale concrete joints to 10‐m‐wide zones of deflection. Significantly, this active trace is ∼400 m west of where the Quaternary active trace has previously been inferred, placing it within—rather than bounding—the built area of suburban Concord. Slip along the fault has already caused infrastructure damage. These results revise our understanding of the southern Concord fault and help constrain its seismic potential.

California

Characterizing precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) in the eastern United States for estimating maximum past earthquake ground motions

Fragile geologic features (FGFs) can be used to estimate an upper bound to the strength of earthquake ground shaking in the past thousands to tens of thousands of years. FGFs could be especially useful in the eastern United States, where few active faults are available for paleoseismic studies and where low seismic attenuation means that an earthquake could damage FGFs at large distances. This article describes a pilot study of one form of FGF, precariously balanced rocks (PBRs), in the Blue Ridge of Virginia, ∼160 km from the central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ) and ∼100 km from Virginia’s Giles County seismic zone (GCSZ). The main goal is to develop and refine methods for studying PBRs in the eastern United States. Photogrammetric 3D models of the rocks were used to locate their centers of mass and delineate their basal contacts, with the latter corroborated by wrapping a wire around the bases to verify the circumferences. Relations between hill geometry and amplification were used to estimate topographic amplification. Seismometers on the PBRs provided the frequencies, amplitudes, and directions of rocking after giving the rocks gentle pushes. The levels of ground shaking likely to topple the rocks were compared with the median hazard curves from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Seismic Hazard Model and were used to map magnitudes of earthquakes in the nearby region likely to topple the rocks. Results indicate that an M w ≥ 7.5 earthquake is needed in the CVSZ or near the 2020 Sparta, North Carolina, earthquake to topple the two most fragile PBRs and that an earthquake of ~ M w 7–7.5 in the GCSZ is needed. The fragilities and estimated ages of the PBRs (20–40 ka) are thus consistent with the absence of such events in the historical record in the nearby region.

eastern United States

Compact seismicity bursts have different characteristics from regional seismicity

Earthquakes tend to cluster, developing into sequences driven by stress perturbations and transient fault-zone processes. Depending on the driving process, earthquake sequences show differing behaviors. This variability challenges our ability to observe or distinguish these driving processes in high resolution. Here we systematically identify seismicity bursts throughout southern California using new statistical methods and examine their causes with other independent geophysical observations. Seismicity bursts are defined as statistically significant seismicity rate anomalies. Our approach has the advantage of being data driven, depending on few earthquake occurrence assumptions. We find abundant seismicity bursts across southern California, most frequently occurring along the San Jacinto Fault and in the Salton Sea and Coso geothermal fields. These seismicity bursts are highly compact in space and time, often encompassed by a 5 km radius and have durations less than 10 hr. Many of the seismicity bursts have their largest earthquake near the beginning of the sequence, but the largest earthquake is usually not an obvious mainshock. We utilize a variety of independent geophysical data sets to analyze the characteristics of the seismicity bursts, finding that the seismicity bursts have low b-values, low spectral stress drops, and varied stress ratios compared to regional seismicity. These differences suggest that seismicity bursts are driven by transient processes acting frequently across fault networks.

California

Groundwater budget for the surficial aquifer surrounding Lake Nokomis, Minneapolis, Minnesota

During prolonged periods of above-average precipitation, rising groundwater levels have the potential to cause damage to and interfere with underground infrastructure and building foundations. To understand the relations between precipitation and groundwater in the vicinity of Lake Nokomis, the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the University of Minnesota, quantified five components of the groundwater budget: groundwater recharge, change in surficial aquifer storage, surficial aquifer groundwater discharge to Lake Nokomis, groundwater evapotranspiration, and groundwater discharge to underlying bedrock aquifers. Field data, geologic records, and empirical calculation methods were used to quantify groundwater budget components for April 2023 through April 2024. Lake water budget data indicate that Lake Nokomis is a flowthrough system during periods with no outflow through the weir, with groundwater inputs equal to outputs. Roughly 40 percent of precipitation that fell in the study area was added to the surficial aquifer as recharge. Uncertainty in the vertical hydraulic conductivity resulted in wide-ranging estimates (spanning three orders of magnitude) of water discharging from the surficial aquifer to the underlying bedrock aquifer. Drought conditions persisted for the duration of this study and were not representative of the conditions that motivated this study. This study is a start towards understanding relations between precipitation, Lake Nokomis levels, and groundwater levels that could affect local underground infrastructure.

Minnesota

Factors influencing distribution of Coccidioides immitis in soil, Washington State, 2016

Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasii are causative agents of Valley fever, a serious fungal disease endemic to regions with hot, arid climate in the United States, Mexico, and Central and South America. The environmental niche of Coccidioide s spp. is not well defined, and it remains unknown whether these fungi are primarily associated with rodents or grow as saprotrophs in soil. To better understand the environmental reservoir of these pathogens, we used a systematic soil sampling approach, quantitative PCR (qPCR), culture, whole-genome sequencing, and soil chemical analysis to identify factors associated with the presence of C. immitis at a known colonization site in Washington State linked to a human case in 2010. We found that the same strain colonized an area of over 46,000 m 2 and persisted in soil for over 6 years. No association with rodent burrows was observed, as C. immitis DNA was as likely to be detected inside rodent holes as it was in the surrounding soil. In addition, the presence of C. immitis DNA in soil was correlated with elevated levels of boron, calcium, magnesium, sodium, and silicon in soil leachates. We also observed differences in the microbial communities between C. immitis -positive and -negative soils. Our artificial soil inoculation experiments demonstrated that C. immitis can use soil as a sole source of nutrients. Taken together, these results suggest that soil parameters need to be considered when modeling the distribution of this fungus in the environment.

Washington

Extremophile hotspots linked to containerized industrial waste dumping in a deep-sea basin

Decaying barrels on the seafloor linked to DDT contamination have raised concerns about the public health implications of decades old industrial waste dumped off the coast of Los Angeles. To explore their contents, we collected sediment cores perpendicular to five deep-sea barrels. The concentration of DDT and its breakdown products were highly elevated relative to control sites yet did not vary with distance from the barrels, suggesting that they were not associated with the contamination. Sediment cores collected through white halos surrounding three barrels were enriched in calcite and had elevated pH. The associated microbial communities were low diversity and dominated by alkalophilic bacteria with metagenome-assembled genomes adapted to high pH. A solid concretion sampled between a white halo and barrel was composed of brucite, a magnesium hydroxide mineral that forms at high pH. Based on these findings, we postulate that leakage of containerized alkaline waste triggered the formation of mineral concretions that are slowly dissolving and raising the pH of the surrounding sediment pore water. This selects for taxa adapted to extreme alkalinity and drives the precipitation of “anthropogenic” carbonates forming white halos, which serve as a visual identifier of barrels that contained alkaline waste. Remarkably, containerized alkaline waste discarded >50 years ago represents a persistent pollutant creating localized mineral formations and microbial communities that resemble those observed at some hydrothermal systems. These formations were observed at one-third of the visually identified barrels in the San Pedro Basin and have unforeseen, long-term consequences for benthic communities in the region.

California

Transcriptional changes in wild Yukon River Chinook Salmon associated with Ichthyophonus infections

Objective We compared differentially expressed genes in Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha with three divergent Ichthyophonus statuses (undetected, subclinical infections, or clinical disease; n = 100) to investigate associated transcriptomic responses. Disease associated with the fish parasite Ichthyophonus sp. was first diagnosed in adult Chinook Salmon from the Yukon River in the late 1980s and has subsequently been implicated in premature host mortality. Methods Chinook Salmon tissue sample collections and Ichthyophonus infection data were leveraged from a multi-agency collaboration during summer 2022 at three locations along the main-stem Yukon River that spanned nearly 2,000 km of freshwater migration (lower, middle, and upper river). We sequenced the transcriptome and compared this to infection status based on routine diagnostic procedures. Results Among the 17,569 genes for which messenger RNA was detected, we identified a transcription signature in the skeletal muscle that was associated with Ichthyophonus infections and included 53 differentially expressed genes. The differentially expressed genes and their pathways included those known for involvement in immune functions, energy synthesis, cellular breakdown, and reproduction—all processes that are known to be influenced by senescence during spawning migrations. Conclusions Results demonstrate a clear transcriptional difference between diseased fish (clinical disease group) and those in which Ichthyophonus was undetected, including identifying candidate markers for infection in this population. These results provide a foundation for development of nonlethal biomarkers to evaluate potential Ichthyophonus infections in Chinook Salmon based on gene transcription, protein products, or gene variants (e.g., polymorphisms).

Journal of Aquatic Animal Health

Correction to A regime shift in sediment export from a coastal watershed during a record wet winter, California: Implications for landscape response to hydroclimatic extremes

In the referenced article, the authors would like to correct text in the first paragraph on page 2571, Figure 9 and its caption. The changes reflect an error made in the processing of the rainfall intensity-duration data used to compare storms to published debris flow triggering thresholds. The correctly processed data does not change the interpretations made in the paper but does correctly indicate that the investigated storms did not exceed the rainfall intensity – duration threshold of Cannon (1988) but did significantly exceed the debris flow triggering threshold of Wieczorek (1987).

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms

The potential impact of three-dimensional distributed slip models derived from real-time GNSS data on the performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for slab interface earthquakes

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning (EEW) system is designed to warn users of imminent strong ground motion with sufficient time to take protective actions. ShakeAlert currently uses three algorithms to characterize the earthquake source. One estimates the location and magnitude using the first few seconds of the P wave and, while fast, tends to underestimate magnitude for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. A second estimates the location, orientation, length, and corresponding magnitude of a line source using observed peak ground acceleration and contributes primarily to M w 5.5+ earthquakes. The third infers earthquake magnitude from peak ground displacement measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and offers nonsaturating magnitudes for M w 7.0+ earthquakes. Other EEW algorithms exist that infer temporally evolving spatially variable slip on a 3D fault surface from real‐time GNSS data, information that might enable more accurate and timely alerts in the event of large‐magnitude subduction interface earthquakes. Here, we evaluate the potential contribution of one such algorithm, BEFORES ( Minson et al. , 2014 ), to improve ShakeAlert performance through a simulated real‐time implementation of Bayesian evidence‐based fault orientation and real‐time earthquake slip (BEFORES) and other ShakeAlert algorithms using data for eight M w 7.6+ earthquakes. The test results demonstrate that BEFORES can produce well‐constrained and accurate magnitude estimates as soon as or sooner than other EEW algorithms, in turn enabling it to increase the amount of warning time users receive in many cases. However, with a modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) threshold of 3.5, which is commonly used for issuing alerts, BEFORES would tend to alert large geographic regions that did not feel strong shaking (MMI 6+). This effect can be mitigated using a higher alert threshold of MMI 4.5 without negative impact on the amount of warning time obtainable with BEFORES.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Unscrambling the Proterozoic supercontinent record of northeastern Washington State, USA

The time interval from Supercontinent Nuna assembly in the late Paleoproterozoic to Supercontinent Rodinia breakup in the Neoproterozoic is considered by some geologists to comprise the “Boring Billion,” an interval possibly marked by a slowdown in plate tectonic processes. In northeastern Washington State, USA, similar to much of western Laurentia, early workers generally thought the tectonostratigraphic framework of this interval of geologic time consisted of two major sequences, the (ca. 1480–1380 Ma) Mesoproterozoic Belt Supergroup and unconformably overlying (<720 Ma) Neoproterozoic Windermere Supergroup. However, recent research indicates that strata considered by early workers as Belt Supergroup equivalents are actually younger, and a post-Belt, pre-Windermere record is present within the <1360 Ma Deer Trail Group and <760 Ma Buffalo Hump Formation. Thus, the northeastern Washington region perhaps comprises the most complete stratigraphic record of the “Boring Billion” time interval in the northwestern United States and holds important insights into global Proterozoic supercontinent tectonic processes. In light of these exciting developments, this field guide will address the early historic economic geology and original mapping of these Proterozoic sequences in the northeastern Washington region, and from that foundation explore more recent isotopic provenance data and their regional to global context. Finally, the guide will end with a discussion of remaining questions with a goal of stimulating interest in these relatively understudied, yet important, rocks.

Washington

Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

Hawaii

Updated three-dimensional temperature maps for the Great Basin, USA

As part of the periodic update of the geothermal energy assessments for the USA (e.g., last update by Williams and others, 2008), a new three-dimensional temperature map has been constructed for the Great Basin, USA. Williams and DeAngelo (2011) identified uncertainty in estimates of conductive heat flow near land surface as the largest contributor to uncertainty in previously published temperature maps. The new temperature maps incorporate new conductive heat flow estimates developed by DeAngelo and others (2023). Predicted temperatures at depth are compared with representative measurements (for conductively dominated conditions), showing good agreement under relatively simple uniform conditions. Inputs included radiogenic heat production for all layers of 1.89 μW/m 3 , effective bulk thermal conductivity of 2.7 W/m/°C for all rocks underlying sedimentary basins, and a previously published (Williams and DeAngelo, 2011) empirically driven estimate of increasing thermal conductivity with depth in sedimentary sequences. The resulting three-dimensional temperature model is published in a USGS data release associated with this manuscript (Burns and others, 2023).

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah

Aboveground carbon stocks across a hydrological gradient: Ghost forests to non-tidal freshwater forested wetlands

Upper estuarine forested wetlands (UEFWs) play an important role in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C), which is facilitated by their position at the boundary of terrestrial and maritime environments but threatened by sea level rise. This study assessed the change in aboveground C stocks along the estuarine–riverine hydrogeomorphic gradient spanning salt-impacted freshwater tidal forested wetlands to freshwater forested wetlands in seasonally tidal and nontidal landscape positions. Standing stocks of C in forested wetlands were measured along two major coastal river systems, the Winyah Bay in South Carolina and the Savannah River in Georgia (USA), replicating and expanding a previous study to allow the assessment of change over time. Aboveground C stocks on these systems averaged 172.9 Mg C ha −1 , comparable to those found in UEFWs across the globe and distinct from the terrestrial forested ecosystems they are often considered to be a part of during large-scale C inventory efforts. Groundwater salinity conditions as low as 1.3 ppt were observed in conjunction with losses of aboveground C. When viewed in context alongside expected sea level rise and corresponding saltwater intrusion estimates, these data suggest a marked decrease in aboveground C stocks in forested wetlands situated in and around tidal estuaries.

Georgia, South Carolina

3D viscoelastic models of slip-deficit rate along the Cascadia subduction zone

Interseismic deformation in the Pacific Northwest is constrained by the horizontal crustal velocity field derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) in addition to vertical rates derived from GPS, leveling, and tide gauge measurements. Such measurements were folded in to deformation models of fault slip rates as part of the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update. Here I build upon one of the contributing models, the viscoelastic earthquake-cycle model of Pollitz [2022]. This model permits inclusion of effects of time-dependent viscoelastic relaxation within earthquake cycles (i.e., ‘ghost transients’) and laterally variable elastic and/or ductile material properties. I lever-age these capabilities to incorporate the Cascadia megathrust into Western U.S.-wide deformation models in which crustal fault slip rates are estimated simultaneously with slip deficit rates along the interplate boundary between the descending Juan de Fuca plate and North American plate. This effort includes construction of a margin-wide model of viscoelastic structure founded on the Slab 2.0 model and probes different models of the ductile properties of the surrounding oceanic asthenosphere, continental lower crust, and mantle asthenosphere. This results in new estimates of the distribution of slip deficit rate along the ∼ 1000 km long margin, highlights the importance of correcting for glacial-isostatic adjustment effects, and permits assessment of sensitivity of results to assumed ductile properties.

California, Oregon, Washington

The addition of 144Nd atomic mass to routine ICP-MS analysis as a Quick Screening Tool for Approximating Rare Earth Elements (Q-STAR) in natural waters

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a class of critical minerals, all of which can have supply chain vulnerability that impacts economic security. These elements are widely measured in environmental matrices via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS); however, successful quantification can require time-consuming, sample-specific optimization. While a sample-by-sample approach is appropriate for targeted quantification studies, this approach is not suitable for mineral exploration efforts where rapidly screening thousands of samples for the presence of REEs is desired. Here, we demonstrated the use of a Quick Screening Tool for Approximating REEs (Q-STAR) to detect REEs in surface water and groundwater matrices, collected as part of existing environmental studies. A mass-to-charge ratio of 144 ( m / z = 144) was added to an ICP-MS method to screen for REEs in filtered water samples submitted for metals analyses to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Quality Laboratory. We detected the presence of REEs above a reference threshold of 1200 counts per second in 18 % of pre-selected 6626 samples. Using this screened dataset, we mapped estimated dissolved REE concentrations across the United States in relation to ecoregions and underlying geology. Data are constrained to where sample collection took place but nevertheless show estimated aqueous dissolved REE concentrations on a geographic scale that has not yet been studied. To validate Q-STAR, REEs were measured in a USGS standard reference sample, a subset of 88 archived filtered water samples, and in fresh filtered surface water samples. Our targeted analyses demonstrated a strong linear relationship between Q-STAR predicted and measured values in all archived samples for Nd (r 2 = 0.94), and light REEs (LREEs) such as lanthanum (La) (r 2 = 0.93), praseodymium (Pr) (r 2 = 0.94) and samarium (Sm) (r 2 = 0.94). Using Q-STAR screen values, nine field sites were identified and surface water samples recollected to confirm the continued presence of Nd and LREEs. Q-STAR can be used to screen an unlimited number of water samples for the presence of REEs prior to time-intensive and costly quantitative analyses and to generate large REE datasets for further investigation.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration