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USGS2015

Archive of Sidescan Sonar and Swath Bathymetry Data Collected During USGS Cruise 13CCT04 Offshore of Petit Bois Island, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi, August 2013

In August of 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a geophysical survey offshore of Petit Bois Island, Mississippi. This effort was part of the U.S. Geological Survey Gulf of Mexico Science Coordination partnership with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to assist the Mississippi Coastal Improvements Program and the Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Change and Hazards Susceptibility Project, by mapping the shallow geologic stratigraphic framework of the Mississippi Barrier Island Complex. This geophysical survey will provide additional data necessary for scientists to define, interpret, and provide baseline bathymetry and seafloor habitat for this area, and to aid scientists in predicting future geomorphological changes of the islands with respect to climate change, storm impact, and sea-level rise. Furthermore, these data will provide information for barrier island restoration, particularly in Camille Cut, and protection for the historical Fort Massachusetts on Ship Island, Mississippi. The geophysical data were collected during one cruise ( USGS Field Activity Numbers 13CCT04 ) aboard the Research Vessel Tommy Munro offshore along the gulf side of Petit Bois Island, Gulf Islands National Seashore, Mississippi. Data were acquired with the following equipment: a Systems Engineering and Assessment, Ltd., SWATH plus interferometric sonar (468 kilohertz (kHz)), an EdgeTech 424 (4-24 kHz), an EdgeTech 525i chirp subbottom profiling system, and a Klein 3900 sidescan sonar system. This report serves as an archive of the processed interferometric swath bathymetry and sidescan sonar data. Geographic information system data products include an interpolated digital elevation model, an acoustic backscatter mosaic, trackline maps, and point data files. Additional files include error analysis maps, Field Activity Collection System logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata. NOTE: These data are scientific in nature and are not to be used for navigation. Any use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Mississippi↗

USGS2019

Severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes based on hydrologic metrics in the conterminous United States, 1980–2014

Alteration of the natural streamflow regime by land and water management, such as land-cover change and dams, is associated with aquatic ecosystem degradation. The severity and geographic extent of streamflow alteration at regional and national scales, however, remain largely unquantified. The primary goal of this study is to characterize the severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes for 1980–2014 based on hydrologic metrics at 3,355 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States. Twelve hydrologic metrics with known relevance to aquatic ecosystem health were used to characterize the streamflow regime. Alterations to the 12 hydrologic metrics were quantified by taking ratios of the metrics calculated from observed daily streamflow records divided by the same metrics predicted for natural conditions by random forest statistical models. Some level of streamflow alteration (diminishment or inflation of hydrologic metrics) compared to natural conditions was indicated at about 80 percent of the assessed streamgages across the conterminous United States. The severity of alteration differed among ecoregions because of differences in dominant land and water management practices. Finally, when compared over the period 1980–2014, climate variability generally played a minor role in the alteration of streamflows across the United States when compared to the effects of land and water management.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2019

Constraining dissolved organic matter sources and temporal variability in a model sub-Arctic lake

Circumpolar lakes comprise ~ 1.4 million km 2 of arctic and subarctic landscapes and are vulnerable to change in vegetation, permafrost distribution, and hydrological conditions in response to climate warming. However, the composition and cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is poorly understood for these lakes because most are remote and unstudied. The goal of this study was to assess timescale and source controls on DOM composition in Canvasback Lake, a shallow, sub-Arctic lake in interior Alaska with similar hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics to about a quarter of circumpolar lake ecosystems. Lake dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration varied by as much as 16% from the mean (3.34 mg L −1 change) through diel cycles in spring 2016 to fall 2017 and was accompanied by minor changes in DOM composition. At the seasonal scale, DOC concentration increased from spring through fall to very high concentrations under ice in winter. Decreases in both condensed aromatic and polyphenolic compound classes and lignin carbon-normalized yield, plus increased relative abundance of aliphatic compounds, suggests that DOM composition shifts from a pulse of allochthonous DOM in the spring to more autochthonous under-ice. These changes highlight the seasonally-dynamic nature of DOM in circumpolar lakes that are poorly captured by single-visit lake surveys and underscores the need to measure DOM properties and fate consistently across multiple timescales (i.e. seasonally) to better constrain the role of DOM in lake processes. To further assess DOM sources, a suite of endmember leachates were compared to bulk lake DOM, indicating solely allochthonous inputs are not well reflected in lake DOM, highlighting the role of degradation processes or mixing with autochthonous sources. Thus, Canvasback Lake appears less well connected to terrestrial inputs compared to past studies of northern high-latitude lakes and does not behave as previous boreal lake models suggest.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Mountain stoneflies may tolerate warming streams: Evidence from organismal physiology and gene expression

Rapid glacier recession is altering the physical conditions of headwater streams. Stream temperatures are predicted to rise and become increasingly variable, putting entire meltwater-associated biological communities at risk of extinction. Thus, there is a pressing need to understand how thermal stress affects mountain stream insects, particularly where glaciers are likely to vanish on contemporary timescales. In this study, we measured the critical thermal maximum (CT MAX ) of stonefly nymphs representing multiple species and a range of thermal regimes in the high Rocky Mountains, USA. We then collected RNA-sequencing data to assess how organismal thermal stress translated to the cellular level. Our focal species included the meltwater stonefly, Lednia tumana , which was recently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-induced habitat loss. For all study species, critical thermal maxima (CT MAX > 20°C) far exceeded the stream temperatures mountain stoneflies experience (<10°C). Moreover, while evidence for a cellular stress response was present, we also observed constitutive expression of genes encoding proteins known to underlie thermal stress (i.e., heat shock proteins) even at low temperatures that reflected natural conditions. We show that high-elevation aquatic insects may not be physiologically threatened by short-term exposure to warm temperatures and that longer-term physiological responses or biotic factors (e.g., competition) may better explain their extreme distributions.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2021

Effects of chronic and acute stressors on transplanted black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) seedlings along an eroding Louisiana shoreline

Coastal wetland restoration can be used to offset past wetland losses and/or reduce future losses due to land-use changes, rising sea levels, and accelerating climate change. However, there is a need for information regarding the restoration-relevant performance of foundation species like mangrove and marsh plants, including their responses to acute and chronic stressors that can affect restoration outcomes. Mangrove encroachment and poleward range expansion into marsh, facilitated by warming winters, has provided restoration practitioners in the northern Gulf of Mexico with a new foundation plant species to consider using during restoration. To evaluate the performance of transplanted mangroves and characterize restoration-relevant marsh–mangrove interactions, we planted nursery-raised black mangrove ( Avicennia germinans ) seedlings within different marsh cover treatments along an eroding marsh-dominated shoreline in Louisiana. Mangrove seedling survival increased with greater densities of marsh cover, indicating that marsh grass ( Spartina alterniflora ) may facilitate mangrove establishment. However, only 35% of transplanted mangrove seedlings established after 10 weeks, suggesting a low return on resources expended in raising seedlings for 1–3 years in greenhouse conditions. Moreover, a 2018 freeze event killed 100% of transplanted mangrove seedlings, while nearby naturally established mangroves suffered minor damage. Our results, along with those in the mangrove restoration literature, indicate that planting mangroves in the northern Gulf of Mexico may not be the most efficient use of limited resources. Rather, restoration efforts may benefit from focusing initially on the restoration of abiotic conditions (e.g. elevation and hydrologic regimes), followed by using marsh plants (rather than transplanted mangroves) to jump-start ecosystem development.

Louisiana↗

USGS2015

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

The Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The overall goals of the BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) are to identify important ecosystems and wildlife habitats at broad spatial scales; identify where these resources are at risk from Change Agents, including development, wildfire, invasive species, disease and climate change; quantify cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors; and assess current levels of risk to ecological resources across a range of spatial scales and jurisdictional boundaries by assessing all lands within an ecoregion. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and stakeholders for the ecoregion, identify the regionally significant information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant species and ecological communities that are of management concern. Change Agents that currently affect or are likely to affect the condition of species and communities in the future are identified and assessed. REAs also identify areas that have high conservation potential that are referred to as “large intact areas.” At the ecoregion level, the ecological value of large intact areas is based on the assumption that because these areas have not been greatly altered by human activities (such as development), they are more likely to contain a variety of plant and animal communities and to be resilient and resistant to changes resulting from natural disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and disease. The Wyoming Basin Ecoregion encompasses approximately 133,656 square kilometers (51,604.87 square miles), including portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, and Montana. The Wyoming Basin has some of the highest quality wildlife habitats remaining in the Intermountain West. The wide variety of habitats includes intermountain basins dominated by sagebrush shrublands interspersed with deciduous and conifer woodlands and montane or subalpine forests at higher elevations. The Wyoming Basin also supports ranching and agricultural operations that are important to the region’s economy and vital to conserving habitats for wildlife. The region also contains abundant energy resources, including large natural gas reserves and areas of high wind-energy potential. Combined with increased residential and industrial development, fast-paced energy development is resulting in notable land-use changes, including habitat loss and fragmentation. In the Wyoming Basin REA, we evaluated the following seven communities as Conservation Elements: streams and rivers, wetlands, riparian forests and shrublands, sagebrush steppe, desert shrublands, foothill shrublands and woodlands, and mountain forests and alpine zones. We evaluated a total of 14 species and species assemblages as Conservation Elements: aspen forests and woodlands, five-needle pine forests and woodlands, juniper woodlands, cutthroat trout, three-species fish assemblage, northern leatherside chub, sauger, spadefoot assemblage, greater sage-grouse, golden eagle, ferruginous hawk, sagebrush-obligate birds, pygmy rabbit, and mule deer. We evaluated Management Questions (Core and Integrated) for each species and community for the Wyoming Basin REA. Core Management Questions address primary management issues, including (1) where is the Conservation Element, and what are its key ecological attributes (characteristics of species and communities that may affect their long-term persistence or viability); (2) what and where are the Change Agents; and (3) how do the Change Agents affect the key ecological attributes? Integrated Management Questions synthesize the Core Management Questions as follows: (1) where are the areas with high landscape-level ecological values; (2) where are the areas with high landscape-level risks; and (3) where are the potential areas for conservation, restoration, and development? The associated maps and key findings for each Management Question are summarized for each Conservation Element in individual chapters. Additional chapters on landscape intactness and an REA synthesis are included.

Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Warming-driven erosion and sediment transport in cold regions

Rapid atmospheric warming since the mid-twentieth century has increased temperature-dependent erosion and sediment-transport processes in cold environments, affecting food, energy and water security. In this Review, we summarize landscape changes in cold environments and provide a global inventory of increases in erosion and sediment yield driven by cryosphere degradation. Anthropogenic climate change, deglaciation, and thermokarst disturbances are causing increased sediment mobilization and transport processes in glacierized and periglacierized basins. With continuous cryosphere degradation, sediment transport will continue to increase until reaching a maximum (peak sediment). Thereafter, transport is likely to shift from a temperature-dependent regime toward a rainfall-dependent regime roughly between 2100–2200. The timing of the regime shift would be regulated by changes in meltwater, erosive rainfall and landscape erodibility, and complicated by geomorphic feedbacks and connectivity. Further progress in integrating multisource sediment observations, developing physics-based sediment-transport models, and enhancing interdisciplinary and international scientific collaboration is needed to predict sediment dynamics in a warming world.

Nature--Reviews of Earth and Environment↗

USGS2023

Climate change and pulse migration: Intermittent Chugach Inuit occupation of glacial fiords on the Kenai Coast, Alaska

For millennia, Inuit peoples of the Arctic and Subarctic have been challenged by the impacts of climate change on the abundance of key subsistence species. Responses to climate-induced declines in animal populations included switching to alternative food sources and/or migrating to regions of greater availability. We examine these dynamics for the Chugach Inuit (Sugpiat) people of southern coastal Alaska by synthesizing a large body of evidence from archeological sites, including radiocarbon dates and archaeofaunal assemblages, and by applying contemporary knowledge of glaciomarine ecosystems, spatial patterns of resource richness, and ocean-climate induced regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska. We hypothesize that Chugach groups migrated from Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula during periods of low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to harvest harbor seals, which were seasonally aggregated near tidewater glaciers during pupping season, as well as piscivorous seabirds, Pacific cod, and other species that thrive under cool ocean conditions. During warming phases, the Chugach returned to Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to fish for salmon and other species that abound during higher SSTs. Drivers of this coupled human-natural system of repeated (pulse) migration include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific that has been shown to generate step-like regime shifts in the marine food web; and coastal glaciers that structure the functioning of fiord ecosystems and support high levels of biological productivity. The culturally-constructed Chugach niche in the glaciomarine habitat of the Gulf of Alaska was based on intergenerationally transmitted ecological knowledge that enabled a resilient, mobile response to climate and resource variation.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Paleohydrological context for recent floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

The recent intensification of floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia has had profound cultural, ecological, and economic impacts that are expected to be exacerbated further by anthropogenic climate change. In part due to short instrumental runoff records, the long-term stationarity of hydroclimatic extremes in this major North American watershed remains poorly understood, highlighting the need to use high-resolution paleoenvironmental proxies to inform on past streamflow. Here we use a network of tree-ring proxy records to develop 11 subbasin-scale, complementary flood- and drought-season reconstructions, the first of their kind. The reconstructions explicitly target management-relevant flood and drought seasons within each basin, and are examined in tandem to provide an expanded assessment of extreme events across the FRB with immediate implications for water management. We find that past high flood-season flows have been of greater magnitude and occurred in more consecutive years than during the observational record alone. Early 20th century low flows in the drought season were especially severe in both duration and magnitude in some subbasins relative to recent dry periods. Our Fraser subbasin-scale reconstructions provide long-term benchmarks for the natural flood and drought variability prior to anthropogenic forcing. These reconstructions demonstrate that the instrumental streamflow records upon which current management is based likely underestimate the full natural magnitude, duration, and frequency of extreme seasonal flows in the FRB, as well as the potential severity of future anthropogenically forced events.

British Columbia↗

USGS2020

Assessment of fire fuel load dynamics in shrubland ecosystems in the western United States using MODIS products

Assessing fire behavior in shrubland/grassland ecosystems of the western United States has proven especially problematic, in part due to the complex nature of the vegetation and its relationships with prior fire history events. Our goals in this study were (1) to determine if we can effectively leverage the high temporal resolution capabilities of current remote sensing systems such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to improve upon shrub and grassland mapping and (2) to determine if these improvements alter and improve fire behavior model results in these grass- and shrub-dominated systems. The study focused on the shrublands and grasslands of the Owyhee Basin, which is located primarily in southern Idaho. Shrubland and grassland fuel load dynamics were characterized using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Net Primary Production (NPP) datasets (both derived from MODIS). NDVI shrub and grassland values were converted to biomass, and custom fire behavior fuel models were then developed to evaluate the impacts of surface fuel changes on fire behaviors. Results from the study include the following: (1) high intra- and interannual spectral variability characterized these shrubland/grassland ecosystems, and this spectral variability was highly correlated with climate variables, most notably precipitation; (2) fire activity had a higher likelihood of occurring in areas where the NDVI (and biomass) differential between spring and summer values was especially high; (3) the annual fuel loads estimated from MODIS NPP showed that live herbaceous fuel loads were closely correlated with annual precipitation; (4) estimated fuel load accumulation was higher on shrublands than grasslands with the same vegetation productivity; (5) the total fuel load on shrublands was impacted by shrubland age, and live woody fuel load was over 66% of the total fuel load; and (6) comparisons of simulated fire behavior and spread between dynamic and static fuel loads, the latter estimates being obtained from the operational and nationwide LANDFIRE program, showed clear differences in fire indices and fire burn areas between the dynamic fuel loads and the static fuel loads. Current standard fuel models appear to have bias in underestimating the fire spread and total burnable area.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2011

Population fragmentation and inter-ecosystem movements of grizzly bears in Western Canada and the Northern United States

Population fragmentation compromises population viability, reduces a species ability to respond to climate change, and ultimately may reduce biodiversity. We studied the current state and potential causes of fragmentation in grizzly bears over approximately 1,000,000 km 2 of western Canada, the northern United States (US), and southeast Alaska. We compiled much of our data from projects undertaken with a variety of research objectives including population estimation and trend, landscape fragmentation, habitat selection, vital rates, and response to human development. Our primary analytical techniques stemmed from genetic analysis of 3,134 bears, supplemented with radiotelemetry data from 792 bears. We used 15 locus microsatellite data coupled withmeasures of genetic distance, isolation-by-distance (IBD) analysis, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), linear multiple regression, multi-factorial correspondence analysis (to identify population divisions or fractures with no a priori assumption of group membership), and population-assignment methods to detect individual migrants between immediately adjacent areas. These data corroborated observations of inter-area movements from our telemetry database. In northern areas, we found a spatial genetic pattern of IBD, although there was evidence of natural fragmentation from the rugged heavily glaciated coast mountains of British Columbia (BC) and the Yukon. These results contrasted with the spatial pattern of fragmentation in more southern parts of their distribution. Near the Canada-US border area, we found extensive fragmentation that corresponded to settled mountain valleys andmajor highways. Genetic distances across developed valleys were elevated relative to those across undeveloped valleys in central and northern BC. In disturbed areas, most inter-area movements detected were made by male bears, with few female migrants identified. North-south movements within mountain ranges (Mts) and across BC Highway 3 were more common than east-west movements across settled mountain valleys separating Mts. Our results suggest that relatively distinct subpopulations exist in this region, including the Cabinet, Selkirk South, and the decadesisolated Yellowstone populations. Current movement rates do not appear sufficient to consider the subpopulations we identify along the Canada-US border as 1 inter-breeding unit. Although we detected enough male movement to mediate gene flow, the current low rate of female movement detected among areas is insufficient to provide a demographic rescue effect between areas in the immediate future (0-15 yr). In Alberta, we found fragmentation corresponded to major east-west highways (Highways 3, 11, 16, and 43) and most inter-area movements were made by males. Gene flow and movement rates between Alberta and BC were highest across the Continental Divide south of Highway 1 and north of Highway 16. In the central region between Highways 1 and 11, we found evidence of natural fragmentation associated with the extensive glaciers and icefields along the Continental Divide. The discontinuities that we identified would form appropriate boundaries formanagement units. We related sex-specific movement rates between adjacent areas to several metrics of human use (highway traffic, settlement, and humancaused mortality) to understand the causes of fragmentation. This analysis used data from 1,508 bears sampled over a 161,500-km 2 area in southeastern BC, western Alberta, northern Idaho, and northern Montana during 1979-2007. This area was bisected by numerous human transportation and settlement corridors of varying intensity and complexity. We used multiple linear regression and ANCOVA to document the responses of female and male bears to disturbance. Males and females both demonstrated reduced movement rates with increasing settlement and traffic. However, females reduced their movement rates dramatically when settlement increased to >20% of the fracture zone. At this same

Wildlife Monographs↗

USGS2023

U.S. Geological Survey Rocky Mountain Region 2022 science exchange, showcasing interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art USGS science

Introduction The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States represent complex, interconnected systems that sustain a number of species, including tens of millions of humans. These systems face several challenges, including worsening drought, altered wildfire regimes, climate change, and the spread of invasive species. These factors can exacerbate one another, further contributing to habitat loss and affecting species of conservation concern. Characterizing and managing these challenges require interdisciplinary communities of scientists to develop information and decision-support tools that can inform holistic land and water management solutions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region 2022 Science Exchange focused on the use of interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art science being conducted by USGS scientists in the region to address these complex problems. The USGS Rocky Mountain Regional Office organized its first Science Exchange in 2017 to share scientific information between leaders and early career scientists throughout the region. Science Exchanges held in 2018 and 2020 focused on drought science relevant to the region and the Earth Monitoring, Analyses, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept, which is designed to facilitate interdisciplinary, timely, and actionable science related to drought in the Colorado River Basin and other areas. Based on the emerging need for more holistic approaches to address increasingly complex natural resource issues that affect society, the Region hosted a virtual fourth Science Exchange for three days in April 2022. This event focused on barriers and bridges to interdisciplinary science and highlighted studies from the Region to inspire collaboration across disciplines. Presentations described recent and ongoing research that applied collaborative and state-of-the-art methods to address problems in the fields of geology, hydrology, ecology, and natural hazards. Science collaboration and outreach to all levels of stakeholders are vital elements needed for providing timely and actionable data, interpretations, analytical tools, and products. These presentations led to active online chats and panel discussions and showcased interdisciplinary science and advanced methods that may inform and lead to more effective, holistic management decisions as the Western United States adapts to ongoing and future changes.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2012

Response of biological soil crust diazotrophs to season, altered summer precipitation, and year-round increased temperature in an arid grassland of the Colorado Plateau, USA

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), which supply significant amounts of fixed nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems worldwide (~33Tg y -1 ), are likely to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Using nifH gene-based surveys, we explored variation in the diazotrophic community of biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau, USA in response to season (autumn vs. spring), as well as field manipulations that increased the frequency of small volume precipitation events and year-round soil temperature. Abundance of nifH genes in biocrusts ranged from 3×10 6 to 1× 8 g -1 soil, and nifH from heterocystous cyanobacteria closely related to Scytonema hyalinum, Spirirestis rafaelensis , and Nostoc commune comprised >98% of the total. Although there was no apparent seasonal effect on total nifH gene abundance in the biocrusts, T-RFLP analysis revealed a strong seasonal pattern in nifH composition. Spirirestis nifH abundance was estimated to oscillate 1 to >2 orders of magnitude between autumn (low) and spring (high). A year-round increase of soil temperature (2–3°C) had little effect on the diazotroph community structure over 2 years. Altered summer precipitation had little impact on diazotroph community structure over the first 1.5years of the study, when natural background patterns across years and seasons superseded any treatment effects. However, after the second summer of treatments, nifH abundance was 2.6-fold lower in biocrusts receiving altered precipitation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria were apparently more resilient to altered precipitation than other cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that diazotrophic community composition of biocrusts in this semi-arid grassland undergoes strong seasonal shifts and that the abundance of its dominant members decreased in response to more frequent, small volume precipitation events.

Frontiers in Terrestrial Microbiology↗

USGS2019

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin regulated streamflow upstream from Minot, North Dakota

The Souris River Basin is a 24,000 square-mile basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada, and the State of North Dakota in the United States. Above-average snowpack during the winter of 2010–11, along with record-setting rains in May and June of 2011, led to record flooding that caused extensive damage to Minot, North Dakota, and numerous smaller communities in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and North Dakota. As a result, the International Souris River Board created the Souris River Flood Task Force to evaluate potential reservoir operation changes and flood control measures to manage future floods and droughts. Part of this evaluation involved identifying a need for a stochastic streamflow model to estimate the likelihood of future flooding or drought. A stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow simulation model described in a previous report was built upon in this report to include the effects of regulation of four reservoirs (Rafferty, Alameda, and Boundary Reservoirs and Lake Darling) and their operation guidelines. First, a regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model was developed and calibrated from when all four reservoirs were in operation until the end of the reconstructed natural streamflow dataset provided by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1992–2011). The regulated reservoir storage/streamflow routing model then was combined with the stochastic natural (unregulated) streamflow model to provide a stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model for the Souris River Basin upstream from Minot, North Dakota. The stochastic regulated streamflow simulation model was used to estimate regulated flood frequency curves, which are useful for feasibility and design of critical structures such as levees or bridges. Three potential future climatic conditions were considered in this analysis: condition A (wet equilibrium), representing wet (similar to 1970–2017) climatic conditions; condition B (transition), representing transition from wet to dry (similar to 1912–69) climatic conditions; and condition C (dry equilibrium), representing dry climatic conditions. Comparison of the estimated flood frequency curves for regulated flow among the three climatic conditions indicated large differences in flood magnitudes for the more extreme (1-percent or less) annual exceedance probabilities. The estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood magnitude for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 29,300 cubic feet per second for condition A (wet equilibrium), compared to 14,800 cubic feet per second for condition C (dry equilibrium). For comparison, the recorded peak streamflow for 2011 for the Souris River upstream from Minot, N. Dak., was 26,900 cubic feet per second. Although it is not possible to predict how long the current (1970–2017) wet climatic conditions may persist, flood risk for at least the next 25 years, or until about 2040, may be represented best by climatic condition A.

North Dakota↗

USGS1987

Ground-water conditions in Avra Valley, Pima and Pinal Counties, Arizona -1985

Avra Valley is a north-trending alluvial basin about 15 mi west of Tucson in Pima and Pinal Counties in south-central Arizona. The valley includes about 520 sq mi of which about 100 sq mi is in the San Xavier Indian Reservation. The basin is bounded on the east by the Tortolita, Tucson, and Sierrita Mountains and on the west by the Picacho, Silverbell, and Roskruge Mountains. The climate of the valley is semiarid, the average annual precipitation ranges from 8 to 12 in., and the average annual lake evaporation ranges from 58 to 62 in. Two major ephemeral streams--Santa Cruz River and Brawley Wash--drain the area. Santa Cruz River and Brawley Wash and their tributaries provide a source of recharge to an extensive alluvial aquifer that underlies the valley floor. Since 1940, the amount of groundwater pumped from the aquifer has been greater than the amount of natural recharge from infiltration and underflow. Overdraft of the aquifer resulted in substantial water level declines throughout the valley. Until 1969, use of groundwater in Avra Valley was for irrigation. Since 1969, the city of Tucson has pumped and transported groundwater for municipal use in the adjacent Tucson basin from lands that were purchased and retired from agriculture. The purpose of this report is to describe groundwater conditions in Avra Valley as of 1985. A brief discussion of the geohydrologic setting and history of groundwater development are given to define aquifer characteristics, changes in groundwater levels, and groundwater pumpage since 1940. (Lantz-PTT)

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Quantifying soil surface change in degraded drylands: shrub encroachment and effects of fire and vegetation removal in a desert grassland

Woody plant encroachment, a worldwide phenomenon, is a major driver of land degradation in desert grasslands. Woody plant encroachment by shrub functional types ultimately leads to the formation of a patchy landscape with fertile shrub patches interspaced with nutrient-depleted bare soil patches. This is considered to be an irreversible process of land and soil degradation. Recent studies have indicated that in the early stages of shrub encroachment, when there is sufficient herbaceous connectivity, fires (prescribed or natural) might provide some reversibility to the shrub encroachment process by negatively affecting shrub demography and homogenizing soil resources across patches within weeks to months after burning. A comprehensive understanding of longer term changes in microtopography and spatial patterning of soil properties following fire in shrub-encroached grasslands is desirable. Here, we investigate the changes in microtopography with LiDAR (light detection and ranging), vegetation recovery, and spatial pattering of soil properties in replicated burned, clipped, and control areas in a shrub-grass transition zone in the northern Chihuahuan Desert four years after prescribed fire or clipping. Results indicate a greater homogeneity in soil, microtopography, and vegetation patterning on burned relative to clipped and control treatments. Findings provide further evidence that disturbance by prescribed fire may allow for reversal of the shrub encroachment process, if the event occurs in the early stages of the vegetation shift. Improved understanding of longer-term effects of fire and associated changes in soil patterning can inform the use and role of fire in the context of changing disturbance regimes and climate.

Chihuahuan Desert↗

USGS2024

Induced seismicity strategic vision

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey has a long history of contributions to the understanding and resolution of various scientific questions related to earthquakes associated with human activities, referred to as induced seismicity. Work started with the Rocky Mountain Arsenal studies in the 1960’s (Healy and others, 1968) when it was first discovered that fluid waste-disposal operations can cause earthquakes. U.S. Geological Survey work on induced seismicity continued in the intervening years but expanded dramatically in the early 2010s. Disposal of large volumes of wastewater, a byproduct of oil and gas production, into the subsurface caused an exponential increase in earthquakes in the central United States, including earthquakes that caused damage to buildings and infrastructure in nearby communities. Established in 2012 within the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP), the Induced Seismicity Project (ISP) examines earthquakes that are induced by human activities to assess and mitigate the hazards associated with induced earthquakes as well as understand the conditions and processes controlling induced and natural earthquake generation and recurrence. The ISP examines instances of suspected induced earthquakes, in real-time and retrospectively, to assess the probabilistic hazard and investigate possibilities for reducing that hazard, something currently not possible with natural earthquake activity. The ISP has many synergies with work across multiple areas of EHP, including earthquake monitoring, hazard mitigation, and fundamental research into earthquake processes. The overarching questions that guided the development of our research strategies and approaches are as follows: How can seismicity that is induced by industrial activities be better distinguished from natural processes, particularly in regions with higher rates of natural seismicity? Can faults that may be at increased hazard for induced seismicity be identified based on existing fault structures, past earthquake activity, local stress conditions, or other information? What geologic and operational conditions control the occurrence, spatial and temporal evolution, maximum magnitude, ground shaking, and other characteristics of induced seismic sequences? What roles do surface and subsurface deformation, aseismic slip, and other processes play in the occurrence of injection-induced earthquakes? How can induced seismicity be better forecasted to support the Nation’s energy production and climate mitigation goals while limiting related earthquake hazards? In this report, background on induced seismicity and an overview of the state of knowledge is provided in three topical task areas: (1) oil and gas, (2) geothermal, and (3) geologic CO2 sequestration. This report then presents the EHP’s goals, strategies, and approaches—primarily focused on work in the ISP—for understanding the conditions that lead to induced seismicity, mitigating the associated hazards, and assisting the Nation in meeting its future needs in energy production and mitigation of climate change. Finally, the key limitations and opportunities for innovation are outlined at the end of the report.

Circular↗

USGS2012

Late Quaternary sedimentological and climate changes at Lake Bosumtwi Ghana: new constraints from laminae analysis and radiocarbon age modeling

The Lake Bosumtwi sediment record represents one of the longest and highest-resolution terrestrial records of paleoclimate change available from sub-Saharan Africa. Here we report a new sediment age model framework for the last ~ 45 cal kyr of sedimentation using a combination of high-resolution radiocarbon dating, Bayesian age-depth modeling and lamination counting. Our results highlight the practical limits of these methods for reducing age model uncertainties and suggest that even with very high sampling densities, radiocarbon uncertainties of at least a few hundred years are unavoidable. Age model uncertainties are smallest during the Holocene (205 yr) and the glacial (360 yr) but are large at the base of the record (1660 yr), due to a combination of decreasing sample density, larger calibration uncertainties and increases in radiocarbon age scatter. For portions of the chronology older than ~ 35 cal kyr, additional considerations, such as the use of a low-blank graphitization system and more rigorous sample pretreatment were necessary to generate a reliable age depth model because of the incorporation of small amounts of younger carbon. A comparison of radiocarbon age model results and lamination counts over the time interval ~ 15–30 cal kyr agree with an overall discrepancy of ~ 10% and display similar changes in sedimentation rate, supporting the annual nature of sediment laminations in the early part of the record. Changes in sedimentation rates reconstructed from the age-depth model indicate that intervals of enhanced sediment delivery occurred at 16–19, 24 and 29–31 cal kyr, broadly synchronous with reconstructed drought episodes elsewhere in northern West Africa and potentially, with changes in Atlantic meridional heat transport during North Atlantic Heinrich events. These data suggest that millennial-scale drought events in the West African monsoon region were latitudinally extensive, reaching within several hundred kilometers of the Guinea coast. This is inconsistent with a simple southward shift in the mean position of the monsoon rainbelt, and requires changes in moisture convergence as a result of either a reduction in the moisture content of the tropical rainbelt, decreased convection, or both.

Lake Bosumtwi↗