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Potential for continental scientific drilling to inform fault mechanics and earthquake science

Our understanding of fault mechanics and earthquake processes remains limited, largely due to minimal direct observations near active faults at seismogenic depths. This lack of data restricts our ability to accurately assess and mitigate both natural and human-induced seismic hazards. However, recent advancements in drilling capabilities and downhole sensing technologies offer an opportunity: the ability to observe the physical conditions within a volume near active fault zones. In this contribution, we highlight how scientific drilling can provide access to the near-fault environment, enabling measurements of the stress, temperature, fluid pressure, and rock properties at depths where ruptures initiate, propagate, and arrest. These observations are essential to refine models of earthquake nucleation and dynamic rupture, bridging gaps between laboratory experiments, numerical simulations, and surface observations. These insights can advance fundamental understanding in earthquake science but also support the development of more effective seismic hazard assessments and risk mitigation strategies.

Seismica

Advancing subsurface investigations beyond the borehole with passive seismic horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and electromagnetic geophysical methods at transportation infrastructure sites in New Hampshire

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Transportation (NHDOT), surveyed transportation infrastructure sites using rapidly deployable geophysical methods to assess benefits added to a comprehensive site characterization with traditional geotechnical techniques. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral-ratio (HVSR) passive-seismic and electromagnetic-induction (EMI) methods were applied at 4 sites including a roadway-stream crossing, roadway-bridge rail-trail crossing, commuter-parking expansion, and a railroad-adjacent river-cutbank slope-failure site. Additionally, ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) was used at the slope-failure site. Typically, subsurface geotechnical properties are determined from boring data; however, borings are often spaced hundreds of feet apart, potentially missing important spatial variability between boreholes. Geotechnical site characterization including geophysical surveys helped provide a more accurate characterization by using continuous or near continuous profiling. Three-component ambient noise measured with HVSR methods were used to determine resonance frequency and estimate sediment thickness. The method works when there is a strong shear-wave acoustic impedance contrast (> 2:1) between sediment and bedrock. Sediment thickness estimates from HVSR measurements were combined with boring data to make detailed maps of the bedrock surface altitude. The bulk electrical conductivity of the subsurface was indirectly measured with EMI methods and was used to identify lithologic variations, shallow bedrock, and conductive groundwater. Ground penetrating radar, which transmits pulses of electromagnetic energy into the subsurface and records the amplitude and timing of reflected signals, was used to identify bedding and changes in lithology or water content. By combining geophysical and boring data analyses, transportation projects produced more spatially comprehensive representations of geotechnical subsurface conditions than would be determined using conventional borings alone.

New Hampshire

International data gaps at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data

The Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) is utilized by seismologists, engineers, and disaster management professionals in the US and has historically achieved and distributed waveforms from across the globe for significant earthquakes. The increased access to the waveforms via Web API (Application Programming Interface) offers a unique opportunity to provide the community complete datasets, sampling a variety of tectonic environments and geologic conditions, increasing the number of available ground motion records for use in ground motion models (GMMs) and improving the accuracy of earthquake engineering evaluations. The objective of this study is to programmatically identify gaps in global event data from the past decade and backfill missing data gaps at CESMD. We first compare the CESMD catalog with the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog identifying regions and time periods where strong-motion data is limited or inadequate. To backfill datasets at CESMD for significant events, we pinpoint regions and time intervals that lack information, creating a list of events for which we’d like to obtain data. An important facet of this work is identifying the source of data and metadata across earthquake repositories around the world and integrating these data repositories into our current strong-motion data processing workflow. In parallel with these newly processed datasets, we are developing a script to produce data origination citations to include provenance and attribution information to associate with respective datasets at CESMD. We showcase our methodology for identifying and filling data gaps at CESMD using three case studies (the 2018 Anchorage Alaska earthquake sequence, seismicity associated with the 2018 Hawaiian Kilauea volcano eruption, and several earthquakes in Turkey) and then outline our strategy to apply our data gap backfilling methods on an international scale.

Conference Paper

Aspergillosis (Avian) case definition for wildlife

Diagnostic laboratories receive carcasses and samples for diagnostic evaluation and pathogen/toxin detection. Case definitions bring clarity and consistency to the evaluation process. Their use within and between organizations allows more uniform reporting of diseases and etiologic agents. The intent of a case definition is to provide scientifically based criteria for determining: (a) if an individual carcass has a specific disease and degree of confidence in that diagnosis and (b) if there is evidence of a pathogen or toxin in a carcass or sample (for example, swab, tissue sample, skin scraping, blood/serum sample, environmental sample, or other). This case definition is specific to aspergillosis and applies to all avian species.

Techniques and Methods

Unlocking ecological insights from sub-seasonal visible-to-shortwave infrared imaging spectroscopy: The SHIFT campaign

We stand at the threshold of a transformative era in Earth observation, marked by space-borne visible-to-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers that promise consistent global observations of ecosystem function, phenology, and inter- and intra-annual change. However, the full value of repeat spectroscopy, the information embedded within different temporal scales, and the reliability of existing algorithms across diverse ecosystem types and vegetation phenophases have remained elusive due to the absence of suitable sub-seasonal spectroscopy data. In response, the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) High-Frequency Time Series (SHIFT) campaign was initiated during late February 2022 in Santa Barbara County, California. SHIFT, designed to support NASA's SBG mission, addressed mission scoping, scientific advancement, applications development, and community building. This ambitious endeavor included weekly Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) imagery acquisitions for 13 weeks (spanning February 24 to May 29, 2022), accompanied by coordinated terrestrial vegetation and coastal aquatic data collection. We describe the rich datasets collected and illustrate how the complex sub-seasonal patterns of change can be linked to biological science and applications, surpassing insights from multispectral observations. Leveraging open-source processing methods and cloud-based analysis tools, the SHIFT campaign showcases the readiness of the scientific community to harness ecological insights from remotely sensed hyperspectral time series. We provide an overview of SHIFT's goals, data collections, preliminary results, and the collaborative efforts of early career scientists committed to unlocking the transformative potential of high-frequency time series data from space-borne VSWIR imaging spectrometers.

Ecosphere

Relatively stable pressure effects and time-increasing thermal contraction control Heber geothermal field deformation

Due to geological complexities and observational gaps, it is challenging to identify the governing physical processes of geothermal field deformation including ground subsidence and earthquakes. In the west and east regions of the Heber Geothermal Field (HGF), decade-long subsidence was occurring despite injection of heat-depleted brines, along with transient reversals between uplift and subsidence. These observed phenomena contradict current knowledge that injection leads to surface uplift. Here we show that high-yield production wells at the HGF center siphon fluid from surrounding regions, which can cause subsidence at low-rate injection locations. Moreover, the thermal contraction effect by cooling increases with time and eventually overwhelms the pressure effects of pressure fluctuation and poroelastic responses, which keep relatively stable during geothermal operations. The observed subsidence anomalies result from the siphoning effect and thermal contraction. We further demonstrate that thermal contraction dominates long-term trends of surface displacement and seismicity growth, while pressure effects drive near-instantaneous changes.

California

Seamless Geologic Map Database for the Intermountain West, United States: A foundational dataset for mineral systems analysis

The Intermountain West has a complex geologic history, resulting in the formation of a diverse array of mineral deposits. Effective mineral exploration requires understanding the spatial and temporal relationships among geologic processes and events, a key focus of the mineral systems approach to exploration. This paper presents the Intermountain West Seamless Geologic Map Database, a unified dataset designed to support mineral exploration. Integrating geologic provinces, structural settings, and hydrothermal alteration, the database leverages the Seamless Integrated Geologic Mapping (SIGMa) extension to the USGS Geologic Map Schema (GeMS) to standardize geologic data from varied sources. SIGMa's hierarchical stratigraphic organization and feature-level metadata enhance data interoperability and reusability, enabling seamless query, analysis, and visualization of lithology, structural features, mineral deposits, geochronology, hydrothermal alteration. volcanic activity, and By providing a regionally consistent and dynamically evolving geologic map, this database provides a foundational framework for mineral exploration and geologic research. It also allows for an efficient workflow that expedites the publication of integrated geologic map databases.

Conference Paper

New Hampshire and Landsat

At its widest point, a mere 80 miles separate the eastern and western borders of New Hampshire. Its northern and southern borders are just 175 miles apart. Even so, few States can boast as much rugged natural beauty per mile as the Nation’s fifth smallest. Nestled within New Hampshire are 93 State parks teeming with moose, Ursus americanus (Pallas, 1780; black bears), coyotes, beavers, river otters, and foxes. The largest section of White Mountain National Forest cuts across north-central New Hampshire, drawing visitors to its lakes, streams, mountain peaks, and hardwood forests. New Hampshire also is home to Lake Winnipesaukee, the State’s largest lake, notable for its floating post offices, the annual “ice-out” contest that sees residents vying to guess the date its surface ice dissipates, and its supporting role in films such as “On Golden Pond” and “What About Bob?” However, the scenic forests of New Hampshire face challenges in the form of invasive species such as Lymantria dispar (Linnaeus, 1758; spongy moth), Adelges piceae (balsam woolly adelgid), and Agrilus planipennis (emerald ash borer). In recent years, New Hampshire’s lakes and streams have seen more cyanobacterial blooms as well. The U.S. Geological Survey Landsat Program offers a consistent, reliable, and historically unmatched source of Earth observations that can aid in the mapping, monitoring, and management of New Hampshire’s land and water resources. Here are a few ways Landsat data have been used in the Granite State.

New Hampshire

A framework for integrating spatiotemporal deep learning methods with landsat for annual land cover and impervious surface mapping

Land cover information is essential for understanding Earth’s surface dynamics and how vegetation, water, soil, climate, and terrain interact. The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) has been the authoritative source for consistent U.S. land cover mapping. To extend NLCD’s temporal resolution and reduce production latency, we developed the Land Cover Artificial Mapping System (LCAMS)—a prototype spatiotemporal deep learning framework piloted as the foundation for the new Annual NLCD. LCAMS builds on concepts from legacy NLCD and the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiatives. It employs a loosely coupled two-stage architecture consisting of independent but functionally interdependent spatial and temporal models. Spatial models extract per-year information from Landsat data, while the temporal models refine the spatial outputs to enforce inter-annual consistency—critical for reliable land change monitoring. LCAMS produces annual 30 m resolution land cover and impervious surface outputs, with region-specific fine-tuning to generalize across diverse landscapes and temporal dynamics. Validation was conducted using an independent dataset of 1925 randomly sampled plots from five U.S. Landsat Analysis Ready Data (ARD) tiles spanning 1985-2021, selected for spatial and temporal variability. This dataset was used consistently to evaluate LCAMS, Legacy NLCD, and LCMAP. Using the NLCD legend, LCAMS achieved 72.1 ± 1.60% overall agreement, compared to 71.1 ± 1.7% agreement for Legacy NLCD. Using the LCMAP legend, LCAMS achieved 83.4 ± 1.22% agreement, compared to 84.6 ± 1.11% agreement for LCMAP. Overall, LCAMS delivers comparable accuracy while offering higher thematic resolution, longer temporal coverage, and automated production of annual 30 m CONUS land cover.

Remote Sensing of Environment

Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program decadal science strategy 2020–2030

Overview The decadal science strategy of the Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program (CMHRP) of the U.S. Geological Survey for 2020 to 2030 describes the CMHRP's vision and mission and the strategic framework needed to support key program goals: Conduct research and develop science-based tools that lead to safer, more productive coastal communities and improved stewardship of natural resources.

Circular

Engineering and risk research—A strategic vision for extending USGS earthquake science to risk assessment and mitigation

As a part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area, the Engineering and Risk Project (ERP) of the Geologic Hazards Science Center conducts civil engineering research to extend natural hazards science to risk assessments. The ERP includes predominantly, but not exclusively, staff funded by the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. A major focus of the ERP is to deliver actionable information to decisionmakers that helps promote the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The report discusses briefly the ERP’s evolution and scope, its organization structure, describes key products and deliverables, their efforts to engage with external partners, and its strategy and vision in conducting range of engineering and risk research. The research topics outlined in this report, as developed by the ERP, may be used to facilitate project planning activities during the next 10 years and serve as a longer-term planning resource for the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and Geologic Hazards Science Center.

Circular

Factors regulating the potential for freshwater mineral soil wetlands to function as natural climate solutions

There are increasing global efforts and initiatives aiming to tackle climate change and mitigate its impacts via natural climate solutions (NCS). Wetlands have been considered effective NCS given their capacity to sequester and retain atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) while also providing a myriad of other ecosystem functions that can assist in mitigating the impacts of climate change. However, wetlands have a dual impact on climate, influencing the atmospheric concentrations of both CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ). The cooling effect associated with wetland CO 2 sequestration can be counterbalanced by the warming effect caused by CH 4 emissions from wetlands. The relative ability of wetlands to sequester CO 2 versus emit CH 4 is dependent on a suite of interacting physical, chemical, and biological factors, making it difficult to determine if/which wetlands are considered important NCS. The fact that wetlands are embedded in landscapes with surface and subsurface hydrological connections to other wetlands (i.e., wetlandscapes) that flow over and through geochemically active soils and sediments adds a new layer of complexity and poses further challenges to understanding wetland carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas fluxes at large spatial scales. Our review demonstrates how additional scientific advances are required to understand the driving mechanisms associated with wetland carbon cycling under different environmental conditions. It is vital to understand wetland functionality at both wetland and wetlandscape scales to effectively implement wetlands as NCS to maximize ecological, social, and economic benefits.

Wetlands

Towards mobile wind measurements using joust configured ultrasonic anemometer for applications in gas flux quantification

Small uncrewed aerial systems (sUASs) can be used to quantify emissions of greenhouse and other gases, providing flexibility in quantifying these emissions from a multitude of sources, including oil and gas infrastructure, volcano plumes, wildfire emissions, and natural sources. However, sUAS-based emission estimates are sensitive to the accuracy of wind speed and direction measurements. In this study, we examined how filtering and correcting sUAS-based wind measurements affects data accuracy by comparing data from a miniature ultrasonic anemometer mounted on a sUAS in a joust configuration to highly accurate wind data taken from a nearby eddy covariance flux tower (aka the Tower). These corrections had a small effect on wind speed error, but reduced wind direction errors from 50° to >120° to 20–30°. A concurrent experiment examining the amount of error due to the sUAS and the Tower not being co-located showed that the impact of this separation was 0.16–0.21 ms − 1 "> ms − 1 , a small influence on wind speed errors. Lower wind speed errors were correlated with lower turbulence intensity and higher relative wind speeds. There were also some loose trends in diminished wind direction errors at higher relative wind speeds. Therefore, to improve the quality of sUAS-based wind measurements, our study suggested that flight planning consider optimizing conditions that can lower turbulence intensity and maximize relative wind speeds as well as include post-flight corrections.

Alaska

Reference 1D seismic velocity models for volcano monitoring and imaging: Methods, models, and applications

Seismic velocity models of the crust are an integral part of earthquake monitoring systems at volcanoes. 1D models that vary only in depth are typically used for real‐time hypocenter determination and serve as critical reference models for detailed 3D imaging studies and geomechanical modeling. Such models are usually computed using seismic tomographic methods that rely on P ‐ and S ‐wave arrival‐time picks from numerous earthquakes recorded at receivers around the volcano. Traditional linearized tomographic methods that jointly invert for source locations, velocity structure, and station corrections depend critically on having reasonable starting values for the unknown parameters, are susceptible to local misfit minima and divergence, and often do not provide adequate uncertainty information. These issues are often exacerbated by sparse seismic networks, inadequate distributions of seismicity, and/or poor data quality common at volcanoes. In contrast, modern probabilistic global search methods avoid these issues only at the cost of increased computation time. In this article, we review both approaches and present example applications and comparisons at several volcanoes in the United States, including Mount Hood (Oregon), Mount St. Helens (Washington), the Island of Hawai’i, and Mount Cleveland (Alaska). We provide guidance on the proper usage of these methods as relevant to challenges specific to volcano monitoring and imaging. Finally, we survey‐published 1D P ‐wave velocity models from around the world and use them to derive a generic stratovolcano velocity model, which serves as a useful reference model for comparison and when local velocity information is sparse.

Seismological Research Letters

Escherichia coli monitoring and assessment in 2022 and 2023 after beach restoration at Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach, Macomb County, Michigan

Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach in Michigan has a history of closures because of elevated Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) concentrations in its recreational waters. To reduce closures, restoration projects were implemented in 2021 to deter waterfowl from congregating on the beach. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Michigan Department of the Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy and in collaboration with Huron-Clinton Metroparks and the Macomb County Health Department, monitored E. coli from 2022–23 in surface water, shallow groundwater, and sediment at Lake St. Clair Metropark Beach. Results were compared to data from a prerestoration (2018–19) study. A significant decrease in daily geometric mean E. coli concentrations in surface water was observed postrestoration, but the number of high concentration events increased. This resulted in more frequent beach closures postrestoration. Surface-sediment E. coli concentrations significantly decreased after restoration, and waterfowl populations generally decreased from 2021 to 2023, suggesting that the deterrence measures could be influencing E. coli concentrations in surface sediments and surface water. Groundwater E. coli concentrations were orders of magnitude higher than those in surface water and revealed no change correlated with restoration. Seepage measurements indicated that groundwater occasionally discharges into surface water, potentially providing a transport mechanism for E. coli to reach the lake. Continued monitoring and consideration of environmental factors could help to better understand the beach system.

Michigan

Large springs in the Valley and Ridge Province in Tennessee

Approximately 2,700 miscellaneous discharge measurements for 171 large springs in 28 counties of East Tennessee, predominantly within the Valley and Ridge physiographic province, were analyzed statistically and results tabulated to summarize data useful to the Appalachian Valleys-Piedmont Regional Aquifer System Analysis study. The number of measurements at each spring ranged from 1 to 65. Information from each spring includes station numbers, latitude, longitude, spring name and where data are sufficient, an estimate of the mean discharge and the discharge exceeded by 75%, 50%, and 25% of the miscellaneous measurements. Data are referenced to locations on a 1:1,000 ,000-scale map. The highest mean spring discharge was 32.2 cu ft/sec (14,5000 gallons/min).

Tennessee

U.S. Geological Survey global seabed mineral resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides science and data on seabed mineral resources and ecosystems, as well as on the potential hazards associated with extraction. The Nation relies on minerals for infrastructure, technology, manufacturing, and energy production. Critical minerals are essential to the economic and national security of the United States and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. For decades, USGS scientific innovation has contributed to the delineation of seabed mineral resources, the mechanisms of seabed mineral formation, and the environmental impacts of resource extraction. Since 1962, the USGS has also led scientific inquiries into the potential for deep sea mining. By providing impartial science on seabed minerals and their environmental setting in the deep oceans, the USGS enables decision-makers to evaluate the best practices for mineral resource development.

Fact Sheet

Regional models for postfire debris-flow likelihood and rainfall thresholds across the western United States

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) uses an empirical model developed with logistic regression (the ‘M1’ model) to rapidly assess debris-flow likelihood and to identify quantitative rainfall thresholds for debris flows after wildfire in the western United States. The M1 model was calibrated to a debris-flow inventory from southern California (United States) and has been applied throughout the western United States. Limited spatial coverage in the calibration dataset has motivated evaluation of M1 model accuracy outside the calibration region (e.g., the Sierra Nevada or the eastern Cascade Range, United States). Previous test cases showed that M1 overpredicts debris-flow likelihood and underpredicts rainfall thresholds for some locations (e.g., Arizona, northern California, Colorado, New Mexico, United States). We sought to improve the regional applicability of a debris-flow likelihood model by expanding the debris-flow inventory used for calibration, testing multiple potential models and generating an updated model framework. The updated inventory includes 3788 observations from 67 burned areas paired with short duration rainfall ratios. The updated model framework consists of a modified model structure and sets of coefficients calibrated separately to the entire updated inventory and to subsets of the inventory that intersect three Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level 2 ecoregions (Mediterranean California, Upper Gila Mountains and Western Cordillera). Comparisons of predictions from the updated models with observed rainfall and debris-flow activity show that the updated models outperform the M1 model by ~15%–60% and improve the uniformity of predictive performance across the western United States. The updated models also reduce false positive rates relative to M1 and generate rainfall thresholds that are better aligned with relative differences in regional climatology and debris-flow activity.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev