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Flood-inundation maps for an 8.9-mile reach of the South Fork Little River at Hopkinsville, Kentucky

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.9-mile reach of South Fork Little River at Hopkinsville, Kentucky, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Hopkinsville Community Development Services. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at South Fork Little River at Highway 68 By-Pass at Hopkinsville, Kentucky (station no. 03437495). Current conditions for the USGS streamgage may be obtained online at the USGS National Water Information System site ( http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/inventory?agency_code=USGS&site_no=03437495 ). In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flood warning system ( http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ ). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the South Fork Little River reach by using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current (2012) stage-discharge relation at the South Fork Little River at Highway 68 By-Pass at Hopkinsville, Kentucky, streamgage and measurements collected during recent flood events. The calibrated model was then used to calculate 13 water-surface profiles for a sequence of flood stages, most at 1-foot intervals, referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from a stage near bank full to the estimated elevation of the 1.0-percent annual exceedance probability flood at the streamgage. To delineate the flooded area at each interval flood stage, the simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the study area by using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. The DEM consisted of bare-earth elevations within the study area and was derived from a Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) dataset having a 3.28-foot horizontal resolution. These flood-inundation maps, along with online information regarding current stages from USGS streamgage and forecasted stages from the NWS, provide emergency management and local residents with critical information for flood response activities such as evacuations, road closures, and post-flood recovery efforts.

Kentucky↗

Suspended-sediment concentrations, loads, total suspended solids, turbidity, and particle-size fractions for selected rivers in Minnesota, 2007 through 2011

Sediment-laden rivers and streams pose substantial environmental and economic challenges. Excessive sediment transport in rivers causes problems for flood control, soil conservation, irrigation, aquatic health, and navigation, and transports harmful contaminants like organic chemicals and eutrophication-causing nutrients. In Minnesota, more than 5,800 miles of streams are identified as impaired by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) due to elevated levels of suspended sediment. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the MPCA, established a sediment monitoring network in 2007 and began systematic sampling of suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC), total suspended solids (TSS), and turbidity in rivers across Minnesota to improve the understanding of fluvial sediment transport relations. Suspended-sediment samples collected from 14 sites from 2007 through 2011 indicated that the Zumbro River at Kellogg in the driftless region of southeast Minnesota had the highest mean SSC of 226 milligrams per liter (mg/L) followed by the Minnesota River at Mankato with a mean SSC of 193 mg/L. During the 2011 spring runoff, the single highest SSC of 1,250 mg/L was measured at the Zumbro River. The lowest mean SSC of 21 mg/L was measured at Rice Creek in the northern Minneapolis- St. Paul metropolitan area. Total suspended solids (TSS) have been used as a measure of fluvial sediment by the MPCA since the early 1970s; however, TSS concentrations have been determined to underrepresent the amount of suspended sediment. Because of this, the MPCA was interested in quantifying the differences between SSC and TSS in different parts of the State. Comparisons between concurrently sampled SSC and TSS indicated significant differences at every site, with SSC on average two times larger than TSS concentrations. The largest percent difference between SSC and TSS was measured at the South Branch Buffalo River at Sabin, and the smallest difference was observed at the Des Moines River at Jackson. Regression analysis indicated that 7 out of 14 sites had poor or no relation between SSC and streamflow. Only two sites, the Knife River and the Wild Rice River at Twin Valley, had strong correlations between SSC and streamflow, with coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values of 0.82 and 0.80, respectively. In contrast, turbidity had moderate to strong relations with SSC at 10 of 14 sites and was superior to streamflow for estimating SSC at all sites. These results indicate that turbidity may be beneficial as a surrogate for SSC in many of Minnesota’s rivers. Suspended-sediment loads and annual basin yields indicated that the Minnesota River had the largest average annual sediment load of 1.8 million tons per year and the largest mean annual sediment basin yield of 120 tons of sediment per year per square mile. Annual TSS loads were considerably lower than suspended-sediment loads. Overall, the largest suspended-sediment and TSS loads were transported during spring snowmelt runoff, although loads during the fall and summer seasons occasionally exceeded spring runoff at some sites. This study provided data from which to characterize suspended sediment across Minnesota’s diverse geographical settings. The data analysis improves understanding of sediment transport relations, provides information for improving sediment budgets, and documents baseline data to aid in understanding the effects of future land use/land cover on water quality. Additionally, the data provides insight from which to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of best management practices at the watershed scale.

Minnesota↗

Small basin annual yield and percentage of snowmelt runoff in North Dakota, 1931–2016

The North Dakota hydrology manual prepared by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, presents methodologies primarily used for developing hydrology for onfarm conservation practices, watershed projects, Resource Conservation and Development project measures, and river basin studies. The manual includes data necessary for determining hydrologic factors and developing a design discharge for a given site and intended purpose. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Natural Resources Conservation Service, developed methods to reproduce and update the annual yield maps for chapter 7 of the North Dakota hydrology manual. Annual yields, in acre-feet per square mile, for the 50- and 80-percent exceedance probabilities and expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines were estimated using U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data from 1931 to 2016 for 71 selected streamgages with drainage areas of 505 square miles or less. An application of a modified Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III was used to estimate missing annual streamflow volumes. An alternate expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines was estimated using High Plains Climatic Center precipitation and snowmelt data from 1931 to 2016 for 85 selected sites. The final expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines was estimated using streamflow data instead of precipitation and snowfall depth data. A snowmelt runoff seasonal period of March–May produced better isoline slopes than a November–May runoff seasonal period. Slopes of the expected percentage of snowmelt runoff isolines were sensitive to amounts of missing record. Suitable isoline slopes appeared when the missing record was set to 50 percent (43 years) and 66 percent (57 years) for the 86-year period of 1931–2016.

North Dakota↗

Simulated effects of the proposed Garrison Diversion Unit on streamflow and dissolved solids in the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North, North Dakota and Minnesota

Future development of the Garrison Diversion Unit in North Dakota could deliver 100 cubic feet per second of water for the cities of Fargo, Grand Forks, and surrounding communities. Missouri River water from the Garrison Diversion Unit Sheyenne River water supply would be delivered to the upper reaches of the Sheyenne River, which would convey the water to the Red River of the North. Potential effects of releasing Missouri River water to the Sheyenne River on the quantity and quality of streamflow in the Sheyenne River and in the Red River of the North are evaluated for two proposed operating plans year-round operation (12 months each year) and nonwinter operation (April through October each year). The Project Canals, Reservoirs, and River Systems (PROCRRS) and Canals, Rivers, and Reservoirs Salinity Accounting Procedures (CRRSAP) monthly accounting models are used to predict streamflow and dissolved-solids changes that could result from the proposed release of treated Missouri River water into the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. For year-round operation of the Garrison Diversion Unit Sheyenne River water supply for the period 1931-84, the maximum quantity of water that must be delivered to the upper reaches of the Sheyenne River so that 100 cubic feet per second of Missouri River water can be delivered to Fargo, N.Dak., and Grand Forks, N.Dak., was estimated to be about 151 cubic feet per second for August 1976. For nonwinter operation the maximum quantity of water was estimated to be about 210 cubic feet per second. Model simulations were used to assess the effects that operation of the Garrison Diversion Unit Sheyenne River water supply could have on streamflow and water quality of the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. Effects were assessed by comparing simulated streamflows that include Missouri River water to baseline conditions, which represent hydrologic conditions before addition of Missouri River water. Simulated mean monthly dissolved-solids concentrations for Sheyenne River nodes for year-round and nonwinter operation of the Garrison Diversion Unit Sheyenne River water supply generally were less than those for baseline conditions. Simulated mean monthly dissolved-solids concentrations for Red River of the North nodes for year-round and nonwinter operation generally were greater than those for baseline conditions. Streamflow for 1933-42 was about 25 percent of the mean annual streamflow for 1931-84. Simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for year-round and nonwinter operation for node 125, Sheyenne River near Cooperstown, N.Dak., for the low-flow conditions of 1933-42 were less than those for baseline conditions. Annual variability of simulated dissolved-solids concentrations for year-round operation was less than annual variability for nonwinter operation and for baseline conditions. Simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for year-round and nonwinter operation for node 250, Sheyenne River near Kindred, N.Dak., for the low-flow conditions of 1933-42 ranged from 500 to 600 milligrams per liter. Simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for baseline conditions ranged from 300 milligrams per liter to greater than 1,000 milligrams per liter. Simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for nonwinter operation were less than those for year-round operation. For node 700, Red River of the North at Grand Forks, N.Dak., the magnitude of simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for year-round and nonwinter operation for the low-flow conditions of 1933-42 were about the same as those for baseline conditions. Streamflow for 1973-82 was about 30 percent greater than the mean annual streamflow for 1931-84. For the high-flow conditions of 1973-82, simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for node 125 for year-round operation ranged from about 325 to 650 milligrams per liter, and simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for baseline conditions and for nonwinter operation generally ranged from 325 to 800 milligrams per liter. Simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for node 250 for year-round and nonwinter operation were about the same as those for baseline conditions. Simulated monthly mean dissolved-solids concentrations for node 700 for year-round and nonwinter operation also were about the same as those for baseline conditions.

Minnesota, North Dakota↗

Updated estimates of long-term average dissolved-solids loading in streams and rivers of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River and its tributaries supply water to more than 35 million people in the United States and 3 million people in Mexico, irrigating over 4.5 million acres of farmland, and annually generating about 12 billion kilowatt hours of hydroelectric power. The Upper Colorado River Basin, part of the Colorado River Basin, encompasses more than 110,000 mi 2 and is the source of much of more than 9 million tons of dissolved solids that annually flows past the Hoover Dam. High dissolved-solids concentrations in the river are the cause of substantial economic damages to users, primarily in reduced agricultural crop yields and corrosion, with damages estimated to be greater than 300 million dollars annually. In 1974, the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act created the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Program to investigate and implement a broad range of salinity control measures. A 2009 study by the U.S. Geological Survey, supported by the Salinity Control Program, used the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes surface-water quality model to examine dissolved-solids supply and transport within the Upper Colorado River Basin. Dissolved-solids loads developed for 218 monitoring sites were used to calibrate the 2009 Upper Colorado River Basin Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes dissolved-solids model. This study updates and develops new dissolved-solids loading estimates for 323 Upper Colorado River Basin monitoring sites using streamflow and dissolved-solids concentration data through 2012, to support a planned Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes modeling effort that will investigate the contributions to dissolved-solids loads from irrigation and rangeland practices.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

Estimating monthly, annual, and low 7-day, 10-year streamflows for ungaged rivers in Maine

Regression equations to estimate monthly, annual, and low 7-day, 10-year (7Q10) streamflows were derived for rivers in Maine. The derived regression equations for estimating mean monthly, mean annual, median monthly, median annual, and low 7Q10 streamflows for ungaged rivers in Maine presented in this report supersede those derived in previous studies. Twenty-six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations on unregulated, rural rivers in Maine with 10 years or more of recorded streamflow were used to develop the regression equations. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression techniques were used to select the explanatory variables (basin and climatic characteristics) that would appear in the final regression equations. OLS regression of all possible subsets was done with 62 explanatory variables for each of 27 response variables. Five explanatory variables were chosen for the final regression equations: drainage basin area, areal fraction of the drainage basin underlain by sand and gravel aquifers, distance from the coast to the drainage basin centroid, mean drainage basin annual precipitation, and mean drainage basin winter precipitation (the sum of mean monthly precipitation for December, January, and February). Generalized least-squares regression techniques were used to derive the final coefficients and measures of uncertainty for the regression equations. The forms of many of the derived regression equations indicate some physical, mechanistic processes. Drainage basin area is the most statistically important explanatory variable and appears in all derived regression equations. Monthly streamflows are related inversely to the distance from the coast to the drainage basin centroid during December, January, February, and March; that is, the closer a river basin is to the coast, the higher monthly streamflows are per unit drainage basin area during the winter. The relation reverses in May when higher streamflows are attributed to basins farther from the coast. These relations are consistent with colder, inland drainage basins storing more water in snowpack during the winter and releasing it in the spring. The monthly streamflows (and low 7Q10) during July, August, September, and October are related positively to areal fraction of the drainage basin underlain by sand and gravel aquifers. In general, sand and gravel aquifers underlying Maine river basins have excellent water-yielding characteristics and can provide water to streams during low-flow conditions in the summer and early fall.

Maine↗

The relationship between the ratio of strontium to calcium and sea-surface temperature in a modern Porites astreoides coral: Implications for using P. astreoides as a paleoclimate archive

An inverse relationship has been demonstrated between water temperature and the ratio of strontium to calcium (Sr/Ca) in coral aragonite for a number of Pacific species of the genus Porites . This empirically determined relationship has been used to reconstruct past sea-surface temperature (SST) from modern and Holocene age coral archives. A study was conducted to investigate this relationship for Porites astreoides to determine the potential for using these corals as a paleotemperature archive in the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Skeletal aragonite from a P. astreoides colony growing offshore of the southeast coast of Florida was subsampled with a mean temporal resolution of 14 samples per year and analyzed for Sr/Ca. The resulting Sr/Ca time series yielded well-defined annual cycles that correspond to annual growth bands in the coral. Sr/Ca was regressed against a monthly SST record from C-MAN buoy station FWYF1 (located at Fowey Rocks, Florida), resulting in the following Sr/Ca-SST relationship: Sr/Ca = –0.040*SST + 10.128 (R = –0.77). A 10-year time series of Sr/Ca-derived SST yields annual cycles with a 10–12 degree Celsius seasonal amplitude, consistent with available local instrumental records. We conclude that Sr/Ca in Porites astreoides from the Caribbean/Atlantic region has high potential for developing subannually resolved modern and recent Holocene SST records.

Florida↗

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Geohydrology and Water Quality of the Valley-Fill Aquifer System in the Upper Sixmile Creek and West Branch Owego Creek Valleys in the Town of Caroline, Tompkins County, New York

In 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Caroline and Tompkins County Planning Department, began a study of the valley-fill aquifer system in upper Sixmile Creek and headwaters of West Branch Owego Creek valleys in the Town of Caroline, NY. The purpose of the study is to provide geohydrologic data to county and town planners as they develop a strategy to manage and protect their water resources. The first aquifer reach investigated in this series is in the Town of Caroline and includes the upper Sixmile Creek valley and part of West Branch Owego Creek valley. The portions of the valley-fill aquifer system that are comprised of saturated coarse-grained sediments including medium to coarse sand and sandy gravel form the major aquifers. Confined sand and gravel units form the major aquifers in the western and central portions of the upper Sixmile Creek valley, and an unconfined sand and gravel unit forms the major aquifer in the eastern portion of the upper Sixmile Creek valley and in the headwaters of the West Branch Owego Creek valley. The valley-fill deposits are thinnest near the edges of the valley where they pinch out along the till-mantled bedrock valley walls. The thickness of the valley fill in the deepest part of the valley, at the western end of the study area, is about 100 feet (ft); the thickness is greater than 165 ft on top of the Valley Heads Moraine in the central part of the valley. An estimated 750 people live over and rely on groundwater from the valley-fill aquifers in upper Sixmile Creek and West Branch Owego Creek valleys. Most groundwater withdrawn from the valley-fill aquifers is pumped from wells with open-ended 6-inch diameter casings; the remaining withdrawals are from shallow dug wells or cisterns that collect groundwater that discharges to springs (especially in the Brooktondale area). The valley-fill aquifers are the sources of water for about 200 households, several apartment complexes, two mobile home parks, a school, and several farms and small businesses. Most groundwater that is withdrawn from pumped wells is returned to the groundwater system via septic systems. Groundwater in the upper and basal confined aquifers in the upper Sixmile Creek valley is under artesian conditions everywhere except where the water discharges to springs along bluffs in the western end of the Sixmile Creek valley. Principal sources of recharge to the confined aquifers are (1) the sides of the valley where the confined aquifers may extend up along the flank of the bedrock valley wall and crop out at land surface or are overlain and in contact with surficial coarse-grained deltaic and fluvial sediments that provide a pathway through which direct precipitation and seepage losses from tributary streams can reach the buried aquifers, or (2) where the buried aquifers are isolated and receive recharge only from adjacent fine-grained sediment and bedrock. The base-flow and runoff components of total streamflow at two streamgages, Sixmile Creek at Brooktondale and Sixmile Creek at Bethel Grove, were calculated using hydrograph-separation techniques from 2003 to 2007 discharge records. Base flow constituted 64 and 56 percent of the total annual flow at the Brooktondale and Bethel Grove streamgages, respectively. Water-quality samples were collected from 2003 to 2005, with 10 surface-water samples collected seasonally during base-flow conditions at the Sixmile Creek at Brooktondale streamgage, and 12 samples were collected during base-flow conditions at several selected tributaries from 2004 to 2005. The predominant cation detected in the surface-water samples was calcium, but moderate amounts of magnesium, silica, and sodium were also detected; the major anions were bicarbonate, chloride, and sulfate. Sodium and chloride concentrations were relatively low in all samples but increased downstream from the Sixmile Creek sampling site at Six Hundred Road near Slaterville Springs, NY, to B

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Analysis of low flows and selected methods for estimating low-flow characteristics at partial-record and ungaged stream sites in western Washington

A regional low-flow survey of small, perennial streams in western Washington was initiated by the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC), NWIFC-member tribes, and Point-No-Point Treaty Council in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey in 2007 and repeated by the tribes during the low-flow seasons of 2008–09. Low-flow measurements at 63 partial-record and miscellaneous streamflow-measurement sites during surveys in 2007–09 are used with concurrent flows at continuous streamflow-gaging stations (index sites) within the U.S. Geological Survey network to estimate the low-flow metric Q 7,10 at each measurement site (Q 7,10 is defined as the lowest average streamflow for a consecutive 7-day period that recurs on average once every 10 years). Index-site correlation methods for estimating low-flow characteristics at partial-record sites are reviewed and an empirical Monte Carlo technique is used with the daily streamflow record at 43 index sites to determine the error and bias associated with estimating the Q 7,10 at synthetic partial-record sites using three methods: Q-ratio, MOVE.1, and Base-Flow Correlation. The Q-ratio method generally has the lowest error and least amount of bias for 170 scenarios, with each scenario defined by the number of concurrent flow measurements between the partial-record and index sites (ranging from 4 to 20) and the combination of basin attributes used to select the index site. The root-mean square error for the Q-ratio method ranged from 70 to 118 percent, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the smallest root-mean square error used four concurrent flow measurements and the basin attributes: basin area, mean annual precipitation, and base-flow recession time constant, also referred to as tau (τ). Regional low-flow regression models for estimating Q 7,10 at ungaged stream sites are developed from the records of daily discharge at 65 continuous gaging stations (including 22 discontinued gaging stations) for the purpose of evaluating explanatory variables. By incorporating the base-flow recession time constant τ as an explanatory variable in the regression model, the root-mean square error for estimating Q 7,10 at ungaged sites can be lowered to 72 percent (for known values of τ), which is 42 percent less than if only basin area and mean annual precipitation are used as explanatory variables. If partial-record sites are included in the regression data set, τ must be estimated from pairs of discharge measurements made during continuous periods of declining low flows. Eight measurement pairs are optimal for estimating τ at partial-record sites, and result in a lowering of the root-mean square error by 25 percent. A low-flow survey strategy that includes paired measurements at partial-record sites requires additional effort and planning beyond a standard strategy, but could be used to enhance regional estimates of τ and potentially reduce the error of regional regression models for estimating low-flow characteristics at ungaged sites.

Washington↗

Modeled sulfate concentrations in North Dakota streams, 1993-2008, based on spatial basin characteristics

Sulfate concentration data collected from North Dakota streams during recent (1993–2008) years indicates generally higher sulfate concentrations across much of the State compared to concentrations during earlier years. The higher sulfate concentrations have been attributed in other studies to wetter climatic conditions, associated increases in contributing drainage areas, and rising water tables. The State’s current (2013) stream classification system, which includes a standard for 30-day average sulfate concentration, is based on earlier data and thus may not reflect natural conditions for more recent years. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health and the North Dakota State Water Commission, completed a study to evaluate the relation of maximum seasonal (30-day moving average) sulfate concentrations during 1993–2008 to characteristics of the contributing basins to model expected naturally-occurring sulfate concentrations in North Dakota streams. Sulfate concentration data for 75 stream sampling sites in North Dakota were analyzed for this study. A spatial analysis was conducted with digital data using a Geographic Information System to obtain selected basin characteristics, which were in turn used as explanatory variables in a regression analysis to model the maximum seasonal (30-day moving average) sulfate concentration. Characteristics used in the regression analysis included mean annual precipitation, mean percent soil clay content, and mean percent saturation overland flow. Modeled sulfate concentrations generally were highest (greater than 750 milligrams per liter) in basins in western North Dakota and lowest (less than 250 milligrams per liter) in basins in the upper Sheyenne River and upper James River. Area-weighted means for the basin characteristics also were computed for 10-digit and 8-digit hydrologic units for streams in North Dakota and modeled sulfate concentrations were computed from the characteristics. The resulting distribution of modeled sulfate concentrations was similar to the distribution of estimates for the 12-digit hydrologic units, but less variable because the basin characteristics were averaged over larger areas.

North Dakota↗

Spatially distributed groundwater recharge estimated using a water-budget model for the Island of Maui, Hawai`i, 1978–2007

Demand for freshwater on the Island of Maui is expected to grow. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was developed and used to estimate the spatial distribution of recharge on Maui for average climate conditions (1978–2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and for drought conditions (1998–2002 rainfall and 2010 land cover). For average climate conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,309 million gallons per day, or about 44 percent of precipitation (rainfall and fog interception). Recharge for average climate conditions is about 39 percent of total water inflow consisting of precipitation, irrigation, septic leachate, and seepage from reservoirs and cesspools. Most recharge occurs on the wet, windward slopes of Haleakalā and on the wet, uplands of West Maui Mountain. Dry, coastal areas generally have low recharge. In the dry isthmus, however, irrigated fields have greater recharge than nearby unirrigated areas. For drought conditions, mean annual recharge for Maui is about 1,010 million gallons per day, which is 23 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. For individual aquifer-system areas used for groundwater management, recharge for drought conditions is about 8 to 51 percent less than recharge for average climate conditions. The spatial distribution of rainfall is the primary factor determining spatially distributed recharge estimates for most areas on Maui. In wet areas, recharge estimates are also sensitive to water-budget parameters that are related to runoff, fog interception, and forest-canopy evaporation. In dry areas, recharge estimates are most sensitive to irrigated crop areas and parameters related to evapotranspiration.

Hawai'i↗

Water-balance modeling of selected lakes for evaluating viability as long-term fisheries in Kidder, Logan, and Stutsman Counties, North Dakota

Water levels in lakes and wetlands in the central North Dakota Missouri Coteau region that were either dry or only sporadically held water since before the 1930s have been rising since the early 1990s in response to an extended wet period. The lakes have remained full since the mid-1990s, which has provided benefits to migratory waterfowl, fisheries, and wildlife. A small shift in climate conditions, either to drier or wetter conditions, can have a large effect on the lake levels of these water bodies. The North Dakota Game and Fish Department identified five lakes as candidates for sustaining long-term fisheries. The lakes are in Kidder, Stutsman, and Logan Counties, and some lakes might receive inflow from mostly freshwater aquifers, such as the Central Dakota and Streeter aquifers, and were mostly dry during the early 1990s. After about 1995, the lakes had filled up and were deep enough to sustain populations of game fish such as walleye, perch, and northern pike. Before investing in development of permanent fisheries and associated infrastructure, such as campgrounds and boat ramps, fisheries biologists needed to know if the lake levels are likely to remain high in coming decades. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Game and Fish Department, developed a water-balance model to determine the effects of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and groundwater interaction on lake volumes. The model was developed using climate input data and lake volumes for the calibration period 1992 through 2016, during which historical lake volumes could be estimated using land surface elevation data and Landsat images. Long-term (1940–2018) climate input data were used with the water-balance model to reconstruct historical lake volumes prior to the calibration period, and block-bootstrapping was used to simulate potential future climate input data and lake volumes for 2017 through 2067. The simulated future lake volumes were used to estimate the likelihood of annual lake volumes remaining consistent, increasing, or decreasing through the year 2067. Of the five lakes, Sibley Lake was the most likely to sustain a long-term fishery for a period longer than 50 years. The simulated lake volumes for Alkaline Lake, Big Mallard Marsh, and Remmick Lake indicated the lakes have a 50-percent chance to fall below 75 percent of their 2016 volume by about 2030, 2067, and 2025, respectively. Simulation results for Marvin Miller Lake were substantially different compared to the other four lakes and indicated the lake has a 50-percent chance to fall below 75 percent of its 2016 volume prior to 2025.

North Dakota↗

Characterization of selenium in the lower Gunnison River basin, Colorado, 1988-2000

Selenium concentrations in certain water bodies in the lower Gunnison River Basin, including the lower Gunnison River and lower Uncompahgre River, have exceeded the Colorado water-quality standard of 5 micrograms per liter for selenium. A task force was formed in 1998 that consists of various government agencies, private irrigation companies, and local residents to address the selenium concerns in the lower Gunnison River Basin. The task force, working with the National Irrigation Water Quality Program, needed more detailed information on selenium loading in the basin to develop viable alternatives for remediating selenium in the lower Gunnison River Basin. In 1999-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey collected selenium data for tributaries of the Gunnison River downstream from the North Fork of the Gunnison and in the North Fork Basin. The largest selenium load in a tributary stream was in the Uncompahgre River, which accounted for about 38 percent of the selenium load in the Gunnison River at Whitewater. The North Fork of the Gunnison River accounted for about 7 percent of the selenium load in the Gunnison River. Two tributaries east of Delta, Sunflower Drain and Bonafide Ditch, consist primarily of irrigation return flows and were other major selenium sources to the Gunnison River. Some tributaries in the lower North Fork Basin had selenium concentrations exceeding 5 micrograms per liter. Except for several streams draining the Uncompahgre Plateau, many tributaries to the Gunnison River downstream from the North Fork had selenium concentrations exceeding 5 micrograms per liter. Except during occasional rain and snowmelt events, selenium loading from nonirrigated desert areas was minimal. Detailed characterization studies were done in 1999-2000 on Cedar Creek and Loutzenhizer Arroyo, which contribute the largest tributary selenium loads to the Uncompahgre River. Selenium concentrations in Cedar Creek downstream from Miguel Road ranged from 12 to 28 micrograms per liter in November 1999. Montrose Arroyo was the largest selenium source to Cedar Creek. On an annual basis, about 20 percent of the selenium load in Cedar Creek originates in the basin upstream from Miguel Road. Selenium concentrations in Loutzenhizer Arroyo ranged from 157 to 347 micrograms per liter in February 2000. A significant increase in selenium concentrations occurred in the stream reach between the Selig Canal and Falcon Road (LZU7). Although selenium concentrations in the west tributary of Loutzenhizer Arroyo were lower than in the main stem, the west tributary contributed about 41 percent of the selenium load. Downstream from the confluence with the west tributary to the mouth, selenium concentrations in the arroyo gradually decreased, and the increase in selenium load in the lower reach was small.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Low-flow-frequency characteristics for continuous-record streamflow stations in Minnesota

Annual and summer (May 1 to September 30) low-flow frequency curves are presented for 175 continuous-record streamflow stations in Minnesota. The curves were developed for all stations with 10 or more years of continuous record. The 1-, 7-, and 30-day low-flow discharges at selected recurrence intervals obtained from these curves are listed. Low-flow characteristics can and will vary for a station depending upon the number of years of record and the period gaged. When comparing low-flow characteristics between two or more stations, it should be remembered that no provisions were made to use concurrent periods of record for stations along the same stream.

Minnesota↗

Hydrochemical Regions of the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern United States, and Their Environmental and Water-Quality Characteristics

The glacial aquifer system in the United States is a large (953,000 square miles) regional aquifer system of heterogeneous composition. As described in this report, the glacial aquifer system includes all unconsolidated geologic material above bedrock that lies on or north of the line of maximum glacial advance within the United States. Examining ground-water quality on a regional scale indicates that variations in the concentrations of major and minor ions and some trace elements most likely are the result of natural variations in the geologic and physical environment. Study of the glacial aquifer system was designed around a regional framework based on the assumption that two primary characteristics of the aquifer system can affect water quality: intrinsic susceptibility (hydraulic properties) and vulnerability (geochemical properties). The hydrochemical regions described in this report were developed to identify and explain regional spatial variations in ground-water quality in the glacial aquifer system within the hypothetical framework context. Data analyzed for this study were collected from 1991 to 2003 at 1,716 wells open to the glacial aquifer system. Cluster analysis was used to group wells with similar ground-water concentrations of calcium, chloride, fluoride, magnesium, potassium, sodium, sulfate, and bicarbonate into five unique groups. Maximum Likelihood Classification was used to make the extrapolation from clustered groups of wells, defined by points, to areas of similar water quality (hydrochemical regions) defined in a geospatial model. Spatial data that represented average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, land use, land-surface slope, vertical soil permeability, average soil clay content, texture of surficial deposits, type of surficial deposit, and potential for ground-water recharge were used in the Maximum Likelihood Classification to classify the areas so the characteristics of the hydrochemical regions would resemble the characteristics of the clusters. The result of the Maximum Likelihood Classification is a map showing five hydrochemical regions of the glacial aquifer system. Statistical analysis of ion concentrations (calcium, chloride, fluoride, magnesium, sodium, potassium, sulfate, and bicarbonate) in samples collected from wells completed in the glacial aquifer system illustrates that variations in water quality can be explained, in part, by related environmental characteristics that control the movement of ground water through the aquifer system. A comparison of median concentrations of chemical constituents in ground water among the five hydrochemical regions indicates that ground water in the Midwestern Agricultural Region, the Urban-Influenced Region, and the Western Agriculture and Grassland Region has the highest concentrations of major and minor ions, whereas ground water in the Northern and Great Lakes Forested Region and the Mountain and Coastal Forested Region has the lowest concentrations of these ions. Median concentrations of barium, arsenic, lithium, boron, strontium, and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen also are significantly different among the hydrochemical regions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Evaluation of nonpoint-source contamination, Wisconsin: Land-use and Best-Management-Practices inventory, selected streamwater-quality data, urban-watershed quality assurance and quality control, constituent loads in rural streams, and snowmelt-runoff analysis, water year 1994

The objective of the watershed-management evaluation monitoring program in Wisconsin is to evaluate the effectiveness of best-management practices (BMP) for controlling nonpoint-source contamination in rural and urban watersheds. This report is an annual summary of the data collected for the program by the U.S Geological Survey and a report of the results of several different detailed analyses of the data. A land-use and BMP inventory is ongoing for 12 evaluation monitoring projects to track the sources of nonpoint-source pollution in each watershed and to document implementation of BMP's that may cause changes in the water quality of streams. Updated information is gathered each year, mapped, and stored in a geographic-information-system data base. Summaries of data collected during water years 1989-94 are presented. A water year is the period beginning October 1 and ending September 30; the water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends. Suspended-sediment and total-phosphorus data (storm loads and annual loads) are summarized for eight rural sites. For all sites, the annual suspended-sediment or suspended-solids load for water year 1993 exceeded the average for the period of data collection; the minimum annual loads were transported in water year 1991 or 1992. Continuous dissolved-oxygen data were collected at seven rural sites during water year 1994. Data for water years 1990-93 are summarized and plotted in terms of percentage of time that a particular concentration is equaled or exceeded. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations in four streams were less than 9 mg/L at least 50 percent of the time, a condition that fails to meet suggested criterion for coldwater streams. The dissolved-oxygen probability curve for one of the coldwater streams is markedly different than the curves for the other streams, perhaps because of differences in aquatic biomass. Blank quality-assurance samples were collected at two of the urban evaluation monitoring sites to isolate contamination in the sample bottle, the automatic sampler and splitter, and the filtration system. Significant contamination caused excessive concentrations of dissolved chloride, alkalinity, and biochemical oxygen demand. The level of contamination may be large enough to affect data for water samples in which these analytes are present at low concentration. Further investigation is being done to determine the source of contamination and take measures to minimize its effect on the sampling. A preliminary regression analysis was done for the rural sites using data collected during water years 1989-93. Loads of suspended solids and total phosphorus in stormflow were regressed against various precipitation-related measures. The results indicate that, for most sites, changes in constituent load on the order of 40 to 50 percent could be detected with a statistical test. For two sites, the change would have to be 60 to 70 percent to be detected. A detailed comparison of snowmelt runoff and rainfall stormflow in urban and rural areas was done using data collected during water years 1985-93. For the rural sites where statistically significant differences were found between constituent loads in snowmelt and storm runoff, the loads of suspended solids and total phosphorus in snowmelt runoff were greater than those in storm runoff. For the urban sites where statistically significant differences were found between snowmelt and storm runoff, the loads of suspended solids and total phosphorus in storm runoff were greater than those in snowmelt runoff. The importance of including snowmelt runoff in designing and analyzing the effects of BMP's on streamwater quality, particularly in rural areas, is emphasized by these results.

Wisconsin↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Kentucky

This report provides estimates of, and presents methods for estimating, selected low-flow frequency statistics for unregulated streams in Kentucky including the 30-day mean low flows for recurrence intervals of 2 and 5 years (30Q 2 and 30Q 5 ) and the 7-day mean low flows for recurrence intervals of 5, 10, and 20 years (7Q 2 , 7Q 10 , and 7Q 20 ). Estimates of these statistics are provided for 121 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations with data through the 2006 climate year, which is the 12-month period ending March 31 of each year. Data were screened to identify the periods of homogeneous, unregulated flows for use in the analyses. Logistic-regression equations are presented for estimating the annual probability of the selected low-flow frequency statistics being equal to zero. Weighted-least-squares regression equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of the nonzero 30Q 2 , 30Q 5 , 7Q 2 , 7Q 10 , and 7Q 20 low flows. Three low-flow regions were defined for estimating the 7-day low-flow frequency statistics. The explicit explanatory variables in the regression equations include total drainage area and the mapped streamflow-variability index measured from a revised statewide coverage of this characteristic. The percentage of the station low-flow statistics correctly classified as zero or nonzero by use of the logistic-regression equations ranged from 87.5 to 93.8 percent. The average standard errors of prediction of the weighted-least-squares regression equations ranged from 108 to 226 percent. The 30Q 2 regression equations have the smallest standard errors of prediction, and the 7Q 20 regression equations have the largest standard errors of prediction. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites with low flows unaffected by regulation from reservoirs and local diversions of flow and to drainage basins in specified ranges of basin characteristics. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits and for basins with karst drainage features.

Scientific Investigations Report↗