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At least 1,459 records · Page 81Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Developing species-age cohorts from forest inventory and analysis data to parameterize a forest landscape model

Simulating long-term, landscape level changes in forest composition requires estimates of stand age to initialize succession models. Detailed stand ages are rarely available, and even general information on stand history often is lacking. We used data from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to estimate broad age classes for a forested landscape to simulate changes in landscape composition and structure relative to climate change at Fort Drum, a 43,000 ha U.S. Army installation in northwestern New York. Using simple linear regression, we developed relationships between tree diameter and age for FIA site trees from the host and adjacent ecoregions and applied those relationships to forest stands at Fort Drum. We observed that approximately half of the variation in age was explained by diameter breast height (DBH) across all species studied ( r 2 = 0.42 for sugar maple Acer saccharum to 0.63 for white ash Fraxinus americana ). We then used age-diameter relationships from published research on northern hardwood species to calibrate results from the FIA-based analysis. With predicted stand age, we used tree species life histories and environmental conditions represented by ecological site types to parameterize a stochastic forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to spatially and temporally model successional changes in forest communities at Fort Drum. Forest stands modeled over 100 years without significant disturbance appeared to reflect expected patterns of increasing dominance by shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species such as sugar maple, red maple ( Acer rubrum ), and eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) where soil moisture was sufficient. On drier sandy soils, eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), red pine ( P. resinosa ), northern red oak ( Quercus rubra ), and white oak ( Q. alba ) continued to be important components throughout the modeling period with no net loss at the landscape scale. Our results suggest that despite abundant precipitation and relatively low evapotranspiration rates for the region, low soil water holding capacity and fertility may be limiting factors for the spread of mesophytic species on excessively drained soils in the region. Increasing atmospheric temperatures projected for the region could alter moisture regimes for many coarse-textured soils providing a possible mechanism for expansion of xerophytic tree species.

New York↗
USGS2004

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems. Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO 2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency, but the consequences of this growth enhancement for the ecosystem are unknown.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2000

Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

A detailed study of seasonal changes in bird populationswas made at the Patuxent Research Refuge, located between Bowie and Laurel, Maryland during the years 1936-1949. The history of the Refuge is reviewed and its physical and biological characteristlcs summarized.. The methods of study used during the investigation mcluded: periodic censuses of a representative 304-acre study area over a two-year period; a census of the breeding population of the entire. Refuge during one year; detailed population studies of representative habitats during the breeding season; censuses of the wintering population of. the entire Refuge during two years; general surveys of wintering populations for seven years; and general observations of seasonal changes in bird populatlons over a fourteen-year period, including data from an extensive banding program and from many special types of censuses. The phenology of the Refuge is described in conslderable detail throughout the year, with special attention given to major fluctuatIons in bIrd populations as correlated with climatic changes and with seasonal aspectlon. of the vegetation. The component specIes of birds m the more important migration waves are listed. Figures approximating the Refuge breeding and wmtering populations are given, while indices representing the relative abundance of bird populations, based on figures from the two-year seasonal populatlon study, were obtained for the entire year. The greatest variety of species as well as the greatest number of individuals occurred on the Refuge during the migration .periods in spring and fall, the variety of species being slightly higher in spring than in fa!l, while the population of individuals was considerably higher in fall. Wmtering and breeding populations were low and relatively stable compared to the populations at other seasons.The ecological affinities of the bird populations differed greatly from one season to another. Species characteristic of edge habitats were much more numerous in winter, while forest species were predominant in summer. Insectivorous species comprised a large proportion (40 to 60 percent) of the total population during the warmer months, but were of minor importance in winter. The greatest number of species of birds on the Refuge occurred during the population peaks of insectivorous species, while the largest number of individuals was found during the population peaks of omnivorous and herbivorous species. The population peaks of insectivorous species were found to occur much later in spring and considerably earlier in fall than the. corresponding peaks of omnivorous and herbivorous species. The Fringillidae contributed the greatest number of individuals in winter, while the Parulidae was the most important family (numerically) in summer. Water birds and marsh birds were relatively unimportant throughout the year, due to the scarcity of suitable habitats. Permanent resident species were found to vary from about one-fifth to slightly less than one-half of the total population throughout the year, although many individuals of these species were either transients or part-time residents. Summer residents and winter residents were more abundant than permanent residents during their respective periods of occurrence. During the greater part of the migration period, transient species were found to comprise only 10 to 20 percent of the total population. transient individuals of all species would account for a much larger proportion of the population at this time. After comparing the results of these investigations with similar studies in other areas, it is believed that the seasonal population changes on the Patuxent Research Refuge are fairly representative of those occurring throughout the Middle Atlantic and East-central States. Yearly variations in seasonal population changes are described and the causative factors indicated, when known. Of these, food supply and weather conditions were generally the m

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,↗
USGS2018

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2013

Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system

Groundwater flow in cold regions containing permafrost accelerates climate-warming-driven thaw and changes thaw patterns. Simulation analyses of groundwater flow and heat transport with freeze/thaw in typical cold-regions terrain with nested flow indicate that early thaw rate is particularly enhanced by flow, the time when adverse environmental impacts of climate-warming-induced permafrost loss may be severest. For the slowest climate-warming rate predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), once significant groundwater flow begins, thick permafrost layers can vanish in several hundred years, but survive over 1,000 years where flow is minimal. Large-scale thaw depends mostly on the balance of heat advection and conduction in the supra-permafrost zone. Surface-water bodies underlain by open taliks allow slow sub-permafrost flow, with lesser influence on regional thaw. Advection dominance over conduction depends on permeability and topography. Groundwater flow around permafrost and flow through permafrost impact thaw differently; the latter enhances early thaw rate. Air-temperature seasonality also increases early thaw. Hydrogeologic heterogeneity and topography strongly affect thaw rates/patterns. Permafrost controls the groundwater/surface-water-geomorphology system; hence, prediction and mitigation of impacts of thaw on ecology, chemical exports and infrastructure require improved hydrogeology/permafrost characterization and understanding

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2016

Climatic and topographical factors affecting the vegetative carbon stock of rangelands in arid and semiarid regions of China

Rangeland systems play an important role in ecological stabilization and the terrestrial carbon cycle in arid and semiarid regions. However, little is known about the vegetative carbon dynamics and climatic and topographical factors that affect vegetative carbon stock in these rangelands. Our goal was to assess vegetative carbon stock by examining meteorological data in conjunction with NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) time series datasets from 2001–2012. An improved CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model was then applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamic variation of vegetative carbon stock, and analyze its response to climatic and topographical factors. We estimated the vegetative carbon stock of rangeland in Gansu province, China to be 4.4× 1014 gC, increasing linearly at an annual rate of 9.8×10 11 gC. The mean vegetative carbon density of the whole rangeland was 136.5 gC m -2 . Vegetative carbon density and total carbon varied temporally and spatially and were highly associated with temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. Vegetative carbon density reached the maximal value on elevation at 2500–3500 m, a slope of >30°and easterly aspect. The effect of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation on the vegetative carbon density of five rangeland types (desert and salinized meadow, steppe, alpine meadow, shrub and tussock, and marginal grassland in the forest) depends on the acquired quantity of water and heat for rangeland plants at all spatial scales. The results of this study provide new evidence for explaining spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vegetative carbon dynamics and responses to global change for rangeland vegetative carbon stock, and offer a theoretical and practical basis for grassland agriculture management in arid and semiarid regions.

Gansu↗
USGS2011

Evaluating the effects of future climate change and elevated CO 2 on the water use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems of China

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in climate change and hydrological studies in relation to how it links ecosystem carbon cycles and hydrological cycles together. However, obtaining reliable WUE results based on site-level flux data remains a great challenge when scaling up to larger regional zones. Biophysical, process-based ecosystem models are powerful tools to study WUE at large spatial and temporal scales. The Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and elevated CO 2 concentrations on ecosystem-level WUE (defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET)) in relation to terrestrial ecosystems in China for 2009–2099. Climate scenario data (IPCC SRES A2 and SRES B1) generated from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) was used in the simulations. Seven simulations were implemented according to the assemblage of different elevated CO 2 concentrations scenarios and different climate change scenarios. Analysis suggests that (1) further elevated CO 2 concentrations will significantly enhance the WUE over China by the end of the twenty-first century, especially in forest areas; (2) effects of climate change on WUE will vary for different geographical regions in China with negative effects occurring primarily in southern regions and positive effects occurring primarily in high latitude and altitude regions (Tibetan Plateau); (3) WUE will maintain the current levels for 2009–2099 under the constant climate scenario (i.e. using mean climate condition of 1951–2006 and CO 2 concentrations of the 2008 level); and (4) WUE will decrease with the increase of water resource restriction (expressed as evaporation ratio) among different ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2018

Size, growth, and density data for shallow-water sea urchins from Mexico to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, 1956–2016

Size, growth, and density have been studied for North American Pacific coast sea urchins Strongylocentrotus purpuratus , S. droebachiensis, S. polyacanthus , Mesocentrotus (Strongylocentrotus) franciscanus , Lytechinus pictus , Centrostephanus coronatus , and Arbacia stellata by various workers at diverse sites and for varying lengths of time from 1956 to present. Numerous peer-reviewed publications have used some of these data but some data have appeared only in graduate theses or the gray literature. There also are data that have never appeared outside original data sheets. Motivation for studies has included fisheries management and environmental monitoring of sewer and power plant outfalls as well as changes associated with disease epidemics. Studies also have focused on kelp restoration, community effects of sea otters, basic sea urchin biology, and monitoring. The data sets presented here are a historical record of size, density, and growth for a common group of marine invertebrates in intertidal and nearshore environments that can be used to test hypotheses concerning future changes associated with fisheries practices, shifts of predator distributions, climate and ecosystem changes, and ocean acidification along the Pacific Coast of North America and islands of the north Pacific.

Pacific Coast↗
USGS2026

An automated geographic information system-based hydraulic modeling tool for developing preliminary culvert designs for stream crossings in Massachusetts

Introduction Currently (2026), many of the about 25,000 roadway crossing structures over rivers and streams in Massachusetts are undersized. Undersized culverts and bridges can be detrimental to fish and wildlife movement, habitat continuity, and the health of aquatic organisms. Undersized culverts also can lack the resiliency needed to withstand large floods, which could be worsened by potential increases in flood magnitude and frequency due to climate change. Improving culvert and bridge designs for stream crossing projects may improve aquatic organism passage, stream continuity, and resiliency during future floods by decreasing upstream overbank flooding, road flooding and erosion, and degradation of aquatic habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP), and University of Massachusetts Amherst began a series of cooperative studies in July 2019 to develop an automated geographic information system (GIS) hydraulic modeling tool for preliminary culvert designs for stream crossings. The USGS plans to provide preliminary culvert designs in the web-based StreamStats application, which enables municipalities and engineers to view potential designs and related information for stream crossing replacement projects in Massachusetts. This application can (a) provide information on hydrology, hydraulics, and ecological conditions at stream crossing sites, (b) provide users with potential culvert designs to improve aquatic organism passage and flood resiliency, and (c) assist MassDEP in implementing the Massachusetts Wetlands Protection Act regulations for stream crossing projects.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2024

Serologic survey of selected arthropod-borne pathogens in free-ranging snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) captured in Northern Michigan, USA

Snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ) in the Upper Peninsula (UP) of Michigan, USA, occupy the southern periphery of the species' range and are vulnerable to climate change. In the eastern UP, hares are isolated by the Great Lakes, potentially exacerbating exposure to climate-change-induced habitat alterations. Climate change is also measurably affecting distribution and prevalence of vector-borne pathogens in North America, and increases in disease occurrence and prevalence can be one signal of climate-stressed wildlife populations. We conducted a serosurvey for vector-borne pathogens in snowshoe hares that were captured in the Hiawatha National Forest in the eastern UP of Michigan, USA, 2016-2017. The most commonly detected antibody response was to the mosquito-borne California serogroup snowshoe hare virus (SSHV). Overall, 24 (51%) hares screened positive for SSHV antibodies and of these, 23 (96%) were confirmed positive by plaque reduction neutralization test. We found a positive association between seroprevalence of SSHV and live weight of snowshoe hares. Additionally, we detected a significant effect of ecological land type group on seroprevalence of SSHV, with strong positive support for a group representing areas that tend to support high numbers of hares (i.e., acidic mineral containing soils with cedar, mixed swamp conifers, tamarack and balsam fir as common overstory vegetation). We also detected and confirmed antibodies for Jamestown Canyon virus and Silverwater virus in a single hare each. We did not detect antibodies to other zoonotic vector-borne pathogens, including Lacrosse encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, Borrelia burgdorferi, Powassan virus, and Francisella tularensis. These results provide a baseline for future serological studies of vector-transmitted diseases that may increase climate vulnerability of snowshoe hares in the UP of Michigan, as well as pose a climate-related zoonotic risk.

Michigan↗
USGS2015

Progress toward a National Water Census

Increasing demand and competition for limited regional water resources make it difficult to ensure adequate water availability for both human and ecological needs now and into the future. Recognizing the need to improve the tools and information that are available to effectively evaluate water-resource availability, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) identified a National Water Census (NWC) as one of its six core science directions for the decade 2007–17. In 2009, the SECURE Water Act (Public Law 111–11) authorized the USGS to develop a national water availability and use assessment program that would update the most recent national assessment of the status of water resources in the United States as well as develop the science to improve forecasts of water availability and quality for future needs. By evaluating large-scale effects of changes in land use and land cover, water use, and climate on occurrence and distribution of water, water quality, and human and aquatic-ecosystem health, the NWC will also help to inform a broader initiative by the Department of the Interior, WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow), which provides multiagency funding to pursue a sustainable water supply for the Nation as directed under the SECURE Water Act. Through the NWC, the USGS actively engages Federal, regional, and local stakeholders to identify research priorities and leverages current studies and program activities to provide information that is relevant at both the national and regional scales.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2021

Time marches on, but do the causal pathways driving instream habitat and biology remain consistent?

Stream ecosystems are complex networks of interacting terrestrial and aquatic drivers. To untangle these ecological networks, efforts evaluating the direct and indirect effects of landscape, climate, and instream predictors on biological condition through time are needed. We used structural equation modeling and leveraged a stream survey program to identify and compare important predictors driving condition of benthic macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages. We used data resampled 14 years apart at 252 locations across Maryland, USA. Sample locations covered a wide range of conditions that varied spatiotemporally. Overall, the relationship directions were consistent between sample periods, but their relative strength varied temporally. For benthic macroinvertebrates, we found that the total effect of natural landscape ( e.g ., elevation, longitude, latitude, geology) and land use ( i.e ., forest, development, agriculture) predictors was 1.4 and 1.5 times greater in the late 2010s compared to the 2000s. Moreover, the total effect of water quality ( e.g ., total nitrogen and conductivity) and habitat ( e.g ., embeddedness, riffle quality) was 1.2 and 4.8 times lower in the 2010s, respectively. For fish assemblage condition, the total effect of land use-land cover predictors was 2.3 times greater in the 2010s compared to the 2000s, while the total effect of local habitat was 1.4 times lower in the 2010s, respectively. As expected, we found biological assemblages in catchments with more agriculture and urban development were generally comprised of tolerant, generalist species, while assemblages in catchments with greater forest cover had more-specialized, less-tolerant species ( e.g., Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa, clingers, benthic and lithophilic spawning fishes). Changes in the relative importance of landscape and land-use predictors suggest other correlated, yet unmeasured, proximal factors became more important over time. By untangling these ecological networks, stakeholders can gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal relationships driving biological condition to implement management practices aimed at improving stream condition.

Maryland↗
USGS2017

Identifying ecologically relevant scales of habitat selection: diel habitat selection in elk

Although organisms make resource selection decisions at multiple spatiotemporal scales, not all scales are ecologically relevant to any given organism. Ecological patterns and rhythms such as behavioral and climatic patterns may provide a consistent method for identifying ecologically relevant scales of habitat selection. Using elk ( Cervus canadensis ) as an example species, we sought to test the ability of behavioral patterns to empirically partition diel scales for modeling habitat selection. We used model selection to partition diel scales by shifts in dominant behavior and then used resource selection probability functions to model elk habitat selection hierarchically at diel scales within seasons. Model selection distinguished four diel temporal partitions following elk crepuscular behavioral patterns: dawn, midday, dusk, and night. Across seasons, model‐averaged coefficients indicated that elk shifted from selecting grassland cover at dawn/dusk, to selecting for greater canopy and forest cover at midday, and then to areas with greater herbaceous biomass at night. Top models changed between diel intervals in spring and fall but stayed the same across diel intervals in winter and summer. In winter, elk selected for southern aspects during midday, for unburned areas at dawn/dusk, and for areas burned within 1–3 yr at dawn/dusk and night. In spring, elk selected for northern aspects and for areas burned within 1–3 yr at midday, for areas farther from roads at dawn/dusk and midday, and for areas farther from water at midday. In summer, elk changed diel preferences for fewer covariates: At dawn/dusk and midday, elk selected for areas farther from water and avoided forest cover, and at night, elk selected for areas burned within 1–3 yr. In fall, elk selected for areas burned the previous year at dawn/dusk and night, for higher elevations at midday, and for areas closer water at night. Using behavioral patterns to identify ecologically relevant scales can help identify overlooked habitat requirements such as diel changes in preference for fire history, forage availability, and cover. We show that the ecological relevancy of a given scale (e.g., a diel temporal scale) can change throughout a given extent (e.g., across seasons).

New Mexico↗
USGS2021

Spatial patterns and drivers of nonperennial flow regimes in the contiguous United States

Over half of global rivers and streams lack perennial flow, and understanding the distribution and drivers of their flow regimes is critical for understanding their hydrologic, biogeochemical, and ecological functions. We analyzed nonperennial flow regimes using 540 U.S. Geological Survey watersheds across the contiguous United States from 1979 to 2018. Multivariate analyses revealed regional differences in no-flow fraction, date of first no flow, and duration of the dry-down period, with further divergence between natural and human-altered watersheds. Aridity was a primary driver of no-flow metrics at the continental scale, while unique combinations of climatic, physiographic and anthropogenic drivers emerged at regional scales. Dry-down duration showed stronger associations with nonclimate drivers compared to no-flow fraction and timing. Although the sparse distribution of nonperennial gages limits our understanding of such streams, the watersheds examined here suggest the important role of aridity and land cover change in modulating future stream drying.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2026

Thinking outside the rocks: Subsurface water storage, topography, and land cover are key modulators of large-scale riverine dissolved silicon dynamics

Riverine dissolved silicon (DSi) dynamics reflect integrated geologic, hydrologic, climatic, and ecological controls. We compiled annual DSi data for 337 rivers across four continents and trained interpretable machine-learning models to predict concentrations and yields from 28 watershed variables. Both models reproduced testing data ( R 2 = 0.85 for concentration and 0.96 for yield) and withheld-site validation ( R 2 = 0.91 and 0.93). Lithology, especially volcanic rock fraction, strongly controlled DSi while subsurface storage, topography, and land cover further shaped DSi dynamics. DSi concentrations and yields exhibited nonlinear responses to basin slope, recession-curve slope, proportion of open-water cover, and nutrient availability. Concentrations showed sharper threshold responses to hydrologic and biotic variables, whereas yields varied more gradually with climate and lithology. These results provide a framework for forecasting DSi under land cover and climate change and for embedding realistic, nonlinear processes in mechanistic models.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2023

Long-term assessment of relationships between changing environmental conditions and the physiology of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate change is influencing polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) habitat, diet, and behavior but the effects of these changes on their physiology is not well understood. Blood-based biomarkers are used to assess the physiologic health of individuals but their usefulness for evaluating population health, especially as it relates to changing environmental conditions, has rarely been explored. We describe links between environmental conditions and physiologic functions of southern Beaufort Sea polar bears using data from blood samples collected from 1984 to 2018, a period marked by extensive environmental change. We evaluated associations between 13 physiologic biomarkers and circumpolar (Arctic oscillation index) and regional (wind patterns and ice-free days) environmental metrics and seasonal and demographic co-variates (age, sex, season, and year) known to affect polar bear ecology. We observed signs of dysregulation of water balance in polar bears following years with a lower annual Arctic oscillation index. In addition, liver enzyme values increased over time, which is suggestive of potential hepatocyte damage as the Arctic has warmed. Biomarkers of immune function increased with regional-scale wind patterns and the number of ice-free days over the Beaufort Sea continental shelf and were lower in years with a lower winter Arctic oscillation index, suggesting an increased allocation of energetic resources for immune processes under these conditions. We propose that the variation in polar bear immune and metabolic function is likely indicative of physiologic plasticity, a response that allows polar bears to remain in homeostasis even as they experience changes in nutrition and habitat in response to changing environments.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Informing our successors: What botanical information for Santa Cruz Island will researchers and conservation managers in the century ahead need the most?

Climate changes are predicted to drive changes in plant species composition and vegetation cover around the world. Preserved specimens and other botanical information that we gather today—a period future practitioners may look back on as an early stage of modern anthropogenic climate change—will be of value to conservation managers and conservation biologists in the decades and centuries ahead. Here, we present suggestions for the systematic collection, long-term curation (in museums, herbaria, and other research institutions), and maintenance of plant specimens, along with associated data and analyses on the plants and vegetation present today and in the past. The primary aim of this systematic survey is to provide information of high value to conservation researchers and managers both in the near term (the next several years) and through the century to come. Such a systematic survey would build on a strong foundation of research and adaptive management on the island. It would fill gaps in less well-studied groups of organisms and identify environmental, ecological, and cultural factors related to current patterns of distribution. It would also archive previously collected data, photographs, and other materials which would otherwise gradually degrade and become inaccessible. As a case study, we use Santa Cruz Island, California, which is managed for conservation. We are confident that the same approach may be applied to other lands and waters around the world. We argue that there is a particular need to collect and archive herbarium specimens and seeds from today's populations, activities largely overlooked in recent decades. We encourage conservation researchers and managers to consider what information will be most important for future managers and to help launch studies, monitoring programs, and collections to prepare their successors for success.

Western North American Naturalist↗
USGS2023

Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change

In the face of accelerating climate change and rising sea levels, quantifying surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands can help to develop a more complete understanding of the implications of sea-level rise on coastal wetland stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach has been widely used to quantify and characterize surface elevation change dynamics in coastal marshes and mangrove forests. Whereas past studies that utilized the SET-MH approach have most often quantified rates of surface elevation change using simple linear regression analyses, several recent studies have shown that elevation patterns can include a diverse combination of linear and non-linear patterns. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are an extension of generalized linear models (GLMs) that have previously been used to analyze a variety of complex ecological processes such as cyclical changes in water quality, species distributions, long-term patterns in wetland area change, and palaeoecological time series. Here, we use long-term SET data to demonstrate the value of generalized additive models for analyzing non-linear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands. Additionally, we illustrate how the GAM approach can be used to effectively quantify rates of elevation change at both landscape- and local site-level scales.

Estuaries and Coasts↗