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USGS2021

Evaluating low flow patterns, drivers and trends in the Delaware River Basin

In the humid, temperate Delaware River Basin (DRB) where water availability is generally reliable, summer low flows can cause competition between various human and ecological water uses. As temperatures continue to rise, population increases and development expands, it is critical to understand historical low flow variability to anticipate and plan for future flows. Using a sample of 325 U.S. Geological Survey gages, we evaluated spatial patterns in several low flow metrics, the biophysical and climatic drivers of these metrics, and trends in low flows for two periods: 1950-2018 and 1980-2018. We calculated the annual 7-day low flow and date, low flow deficit as the departure below a long-term daily flow threshold and the number of discrete low flow periods below this threshold. We also aggregated several climate metrics to watershed scale and used existing watershed properties quantifying land cover, topography, soils, geology, and human activity. Random forest models were used to assess the hierarchy of variable importance in explaining mean-annual low flow variability for each low flow metric using all gages. We find muted regional patterns in mean-annual low flow and low flow variability, likely due to the myriad of anthropogenic, landscape, and flow modifications that obscure flow regimes from their natural characteristics. In contrast, individual years show markedly different spatial patterns in low flow magnitude and severity. Coincident with increases in precipitation, 7-day low flows have generally increased and low flow deficits decreased for both 1950-2018 and 1980-2018 periods. However, 7-day low flows have decreased in the Coastal Plain physiographic province where water use and impervious area have increased in recent decades, highlighting the effects of land and water management on low flows. With continued change expected in the DRB, additional research needs are highlighted to enable estimation of future low flows and to plan for periods of prolonged low flow.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2014

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model. The PVHM model, using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP2), is capable of being accurate at seasonal to interannual time frames and subregional to valley-wide spatial scales for the assessment of the groundwater hydrologic budget for water years 1964–2009, as well as potential assessment of the BMP components and sustainability analysis of conjunctive use. The model provides a good representation of the regional flow system and the use and movement of water throughout the valley. Simulated changes in storage over time show that, prior to the 1984–92 dry period, significant withdrawals from storage occurred only during drought years. Since about 1993, growers in the Pajaro Valley have shifted to more water intensive crops, such as strawberries, bushberries, and vegetable row crops, as well as making additional rotational plantings, which have increased demand on limited groundwater resources. Simulated groundwater flow indicates that vertical hydraulic gradients between horizontal layers fluctuate and even reverse in several parts of the basin as recharge and pumpage rates change seasonally and annually. The majority of recharge predominantly enters the Alluvial aquifer system, and along with pumpage and the largest fractions of storage depletion, occurs in the inland regions. Coastal inflow as seawater intrusion replaces much of the potential storage depletion in the coastal regions. The simulated long-term imbalance between inflows and outflows indicates overdraft of the groundwater basin averaging about 12,950 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) over the 46-year period of water years (1964–2009). Annual overdraft varies considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatically driven factors can affect inflows, outflows, and water use by as much as a factor of two between wet and dry years. Coastal inflows and outflows vary by year and by aquifer; the net coastal inflow, or seawater intrusion, ranges from about 1,000 to more than 6,000 acre-ft/yr. Maps of simulated and measured water-level elevations indicate regions with water levels below sea level in the alluvium and Aromas layers. Ongoing expansion of local hydrologic monitoring networks indicates the importance of these networks to the understanding of changes in groundwater flow, streamflow, and streamflow infiltration. In particular, the monitoring of streamflow, groundwater pumpage, and groundwater levels throughout the valley not only indicates the state of the resources, but also provides valuable information for model calibration and for model-based evaluation of management actions. The HS-ASR was simulated for the years 2002–09, and replaced about about 1,290 acre-ft of coastal pumpage. This was combined with the simulation of additional 6,200 acre-ft of deliveries from supplemental wells, recycled water, and city connection deliveries through the CDS that also supplanted some coastal pumpage. Total simulated deliveries were 7,350 acre-ft of the 7,500 acre-ft of reported deliveries for the period 2002-09. The completed CDS should be capable of delivering about 8.8 million cubic meters (7,150 acre-ft) of water per year to coastal farms within the Pajaro Valley, if all the local supply components were fully available for this purpose. This would represent about 15 percent of the 48,300 acre-ft (59.6 million cubic meters) average agricultural pumpage for the period 2005 to 2009. Combined with the potential capture and reuse of some of the return flows and tile-drain flows, this could represent an almost 70 percent reduction of average overdraft for the entire valley and a large part of the coastal pumpage that induces seawater intrusion.

California↗

USGS2020

One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model: A MODFLOW based conjunctive-use simulation software

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005) is a computer program that simulates groundwater flow by using finite differences. The MODFLOW-2005 framework uses a modular design that allows for the easy development and incorporation of new features called processes and packages that work with or modify inputs to the groundwater-flow equation. A process solves a flow equation or set of equations. For example, the central part of MODFLOW is the groundwater-flow process that solves the groundwater-flow equation; the surface-water routing process is an additional process that solves the surface-water flow equation. Packages are code related to the groundwater-flow process. For example, the subsidence package modifies the groundwater-flow process by including aquifer compaction effects on flow. With the development of new packages and processes, the MODFLOW-2005 base framework diverged into multiple independent versions designed for specific simulation needs. This divergence limited each independent MODFLOW release to its specific purpose, so that there was no longer a single, comprehensive, general-purpose hydraulic-simulation framework. The MODFLOW One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM, also informally known as OneWater) is an integrated hydrologic flow model that combines multiple MODFLOW-2005 variants in one cohesive simulation software; changes were made to enable multiple capabilities in one code. This fusion of the MODFLOW-2005 versions resulted in a simulation software that can be used to address and analyze a wide class of conjunctive-use, water-management, water-food-security, and climate-crop-water scenarios. As a second core version of MODFLOW-2005, MF-OWHM maintains backward compatibility with existing MODFLOW-2005 versions, with features that include the following: Process-based simulation. Saturated groundwater flow (three-dimensional). Surface-water flow (one- and two-dimensional). Stream and river flow. Lake and reservoir storage. Landscape simulation and irrigated agriculture. Land-use and crop simulation. Root uptake of groundwater. Actual evapotranspiration. Estimated irrigation demand. Reservoir operations. Aquifer compaction and subsidence by vertical model-grid deformation. Seawater intrusion by a sharp-interface assumption. Karst-aquifer and fractured-bedrock flow. Turbulent and laminar-pipe network flow. Unsaturated groundwater flow (one-dimensional). Internal linkages among the processes that couple hydraulic head, flow, and deformation. Redesigned code for faster simulation, increased user-input options, easier model updates, and more robust error reporting than in previous models. MF-OWHM is a MODFLOW-2005 based integrated hydrologic model that can simulate and analyze varying environmental conditions to allow for the evaluation of management options from many components of human and natural water movement through a physically based, supply and demand framework. The term “integrated,” in the context of this report, refers to the tight coupling of groundwater flow, surface-water flow, landscape processes, aquifer compaction and subsidence, reservoir operations, and conduit (karst) flow. Another benefit of this integrated hydrologic model is that models developed to run by MODFLOW-2005, MODFLOW-NWT, MODFLOW-CFP, or MODFLOW-FMP can also be simulated with MF-OWHM. At the time of this report’s publication, MF-OWHM version 2 (MF-OWHM2) does not include a direct internal simulation of snowmelt, advanced mountainous watershed rainfall-runoff simulation, detailed shallow soil-moisture accounting, or atmospheric moisture content. Atmospheric moisture may be accounted for indirectly by, optionally, specifying a pan-evaporation rate, reference evapotranspiration, and precipitation. These features are not included to ensure that simulation runtime remains short enough to enable the use of automated methods of calibrating model parameters to field observations, which typically require many simulation model runs. The MF-OWHM approach is to include as much detail as possible to simulate hydrological processes, providing the simulation runtimes remain reasonable enough to allow for robust parameter estimation and model calibration. To represent both natural and human-influenced flow, MF-OWHM integrates physically based flow processes derived from MODFLOW-2005 in a supply and demand framework. From this integration, the physically based movement of groundwater, surface water, imported water, and precipitation serve as supply to meet consumptive demands associated with irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, natural vegetation, and urban water uses. Water consumption is determined by balancing the available water supply with water demand, leading to the concept of a demand-driven, supply-constrained simulation. The MF-OWHM Supply-and-Demand Framework is especially useful for the analysis of agricultural water use, where there are often few data available to describe changes in land-use through time, such as crop type and distribution, and the associated changes in groundwater pumpage. This framework attempts to satisfy each land-use water demand with available water supplies—that is, groundwater uptake, precipitation, and irrigation. An option provided in MF-OWHM2 is to automatically increase groundwater pumping for irrigation, which often is unknown, by the calculated residual between demand and the other available sources of supply. From large- to small-scale applications, the physically based supply and demand framework provides key capabilities for simulating and analyzing historical, current, and future conjunctive-use of surface water and groundwater. To achieve the physically based supply and demand framework, the MODFLOW-2005 standard of no inter-package and -process communication was relaxed for MF-OWHM2. Traditional MODFLOW simulation models required that all packages and processes interact through the groundwater-flow equation or by removing the water flow from the simulation domain. For example, the MODFLOW-2005 representation of a groundwater well extracts water from the groundwater-flow equation (by subtraction) and removes it from the simulation domain. This feature is available in the MF-OWHM framework, but options have been added to allow the specification of a use or destination of pumped groundwater within the model domain, for example, it can be used for irrigation, managed aquifer recharge, or return-flow to streams.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2013

Design of Cycle 3 of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2013-23: Part 2: Science plan for improved water-quality information and management

This report presents a science strategy for the third decade of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, which since 1991, has been responsible for providing nationally consistent information on the quality of the Nation's streams and groundwater; how water quality is changing over time; and the major natural and human factors that affect current water quality conditions and trends. The strategy is based on an extensive evaluation of the accomplishments of NAWQA over its first two decades, the current status of water-quality monitoring activities by USGS and its partners, and an updated analysis of stakeholder priorities. The plan is designed to address priority issues and national needs identified by NAWQA stakeholders and the National Research Council (2012) irrespective of budget constraints. This plan describes four major goals for the third decade (Cycle 3), the approaches for monitoring, modeling, and scientific studies, key partnerships required to achieve these goals, and products and outcomes that will result from planned assessment activities. The science plan for 2013–2023 is a comprehensive approach to meet stakeholder priorities for: (1) rebuilding NAWQA monitoring networks for streams, rivers, and groundwater, and (2) upgrading models used to extrapolate and forecast changes in water-quality and stream ecosystem condition in response to changing climate and land use. The Cycle 3 plan continues approaches that have been central to the Program’s long-term success, but adjusts monitoring intensities and study designs to address critical information needs and identified data gaps. Restoration of diminished monitoring networks and new directions in modeling and interpretative studies address growing and evolving public and stakeholder needs for water-quality information and improved management, particularly in the face of increasing challenges related to population growth, increasing demands for water, and changing land use and climate. However, a combination of funding growth and extensive collaboration with other USGS programs and other Federal, State, and local agencies, public interest groups, professional and trade associations, academia, and private industry will be needed to fully realize the monitoring and modeling goals laid out in this plan (USGS Fact Sheet 2013-3008).

Open-File Report↗

USGS1997

Effects of El Nino on streamflow, lake level, and landslide potential

One of the most important sources of year-to-year climate variation in the Southwest is the El Niño phenomenon of the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño is a natural but largely unpredictable condition that results from complex interplay among clouds and storms, regional winds, oceanic temperatures, and ocean currents along the equatorial Pacific. Under "normal" conditions, the tropical trade winds blow from east to west, Figure 1. Schematic diagram of normal and El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. From NOAA El Niño website. ponding up warm water in the western Pacific. In the eastern Pacific, the trade winds pull up cold, deep, nutrient-rich waters along the equator from the Ecuadorian coast to the central Pacific. The warmth of the western Pacific results in a particularly vigorous hydrologic cycle there with towering cumulus clouds and tropical storms that "radiate" atmospheric waves and disturbances across vast regions of the globe. Heat and moisture lofted into the upper atmosphere by the clouds and storms are distributed by high-altitude winds across vast regions of the globe. During an El Niño, this situation is disrupted and the trade winds weaken, thus reducing the upwelling of cool waters in the eastern Pacific and allowing the pool of warm water in the west to drift eastward toward South America. As the central and eastern Pacific warms, atmospheric pressure gradients along the equator weaken, and the trade winds diminish even more. These changes in sea-level pressure of the atmosphere are characteristic of the strongest El Niño and were identified as the "Southern Oscillation" of the global atmosphere by Sir Gilbert Walker in the early decades of this century. A chicken-and-egg relation exists between the changes in ocean temperatures and changes in winds (and atmospheric pressure gradients); the two sets of changes reinforce and drive each other but neither is clearly or universally "the" initiator of El Niño. Ocean temperatures and surface winds interact to form the complex process, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The interactions can be set off by subtle changes in one or the other, by buffeting from other parts of the tropics, or from regions beyond the tropics. Such a complex interplay and its uncertain (and variable) origins are the primary limitations on our ability to predict El Niño. As the waters of the central and eastern Pacific warm, the powerful tropical Pacific storms begin to form farther east than usual (Fig. 1). As the distribution of storms spreads east along the equator, their influence on global weather systems also changes. Most notably, for our purposes, the jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean is invigorated and pulled farther south than normal, where it collects moisture and storms and carries them to the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. During an El Niño, the trade winds are too weak to cause upwelling of nutrient-rich waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Generations of South American fisherman thus have recognized these conditions by the disappearance of their standard catch, commonly during December and January, every three to seven years. Because of the near coincidence in timing between these conditions and Christmas, the fishing communities have called the phenomenon "El Niño", for the Christ child. The geologic record suggests that El Niño conditions have been a part of earth's climate for at least several thousand years. An El Niño event usually lasts for several seasons, and, along with its other effects, represents an interruption of the "normal" seasonal cycle of the tropical climate. After a few seasons, and usually during spring time (in the Northern Hemisphere), the seasonal cycle reasserts itself and the tropical ocean cools back to the normal east-to-west sea-surface temperature gradients. Sometimes the warm El Niño events give way to unusually cold sea-surface temperatures and unusually strong trade winds, a condition now called La Niña. On other occasions, La Niñas may begin on their own, without an immediately preceding El Niño. The effects of the El Niño and La Niña on global climate are, in part, mirror images of each other. For example, drought is a common occurrence in the southwestern United States during La Niña, in contrast to the wet years associated with El Niño.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, U↗

USGS2016

Three responses of wetland conditions to climatic extremes in the Prairie Pothole Region

Wetlands in central North Dakota were revisited after 50 years to assess changes following extreme drought and a prolonged wet period. We compared data collected during 1961–1966 to current (2013–2014) wetland conditions. We revisited 80 wetlands in 2013 and 2014 across three study areas and measured wetland area, ponded-water depth, and specific conductance. Wetlands at the three study areas responded to prolonged wet conditions in one of three ways. Wetlands at Crystal Springs became larger, and had deeper ponds of lower specific conductance in 2013–14 compared to the 1960s. Wetlands at Cottonwood were larger with deeper ponds of slightly higher specific conductance in 2013–2014. Wetlands at Mt. Moriah had only subtle changes in size, pond depth, and specific conductance between periods. Prolonged wet conditions led to merging of most wetlands (defined as the outer edge of wet-meadow vegetation) at Crystal Springs and a few wetlands at Cottonwood. Low topographic relief at Crystal Springs and Cottonwood contributed to storage of excess water in wetlands with associated responses to prolonged wet conditions. In contrast, higher topographic relief and natural outlets into two intermittent streams at Mt. Moriah resulted in wetlands being less impacted by prolonged wet conditions.

North Dakota↗

USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗

USGS1965

Ground-water resources of Pavant Valley, Utah

Pavant Valley, in eastern Millard County in west-central Utah, is in the Great Basin section of the Basin and Range province. The area of investigation is 34 miles long from north to south and 9 miles wide from east to west and comprises about 300 square miles. Agriculture, tourist trade, and mining are the principal industries. The population of the valley is about 3,500, of which about half live in Fillmore, the county seat of Millard County. The climate is semiarid and temperatures are moderate. Average normal annual precipitation in the lowlands is estimated to range from 10 to 14 inches. Precipitation is heaviest during the late winter and spring, January through May. The average monthly temperature at Fillmore ranges from 29 ° F in January to 76 ° F in July; the average annual temperature is 52 ° F. Because of the aridity, most crops cannot be grown successfully without irrigation. Irrigation requirements were satisfied for about 60 years after the valley was settled by diverting streams tributary to the valley. Artesian water was discovered near Flowell in 1915. By 1920 flowing artesian wells supplied about 10 percent of the irrigation water used in the valley, not including water from the Central Utah Canal. The Central Utah Canal was constructed in 1916 to convey water to the Pavant Valley from the Sevier River. Especially since 1916, the quantity of surface water available each year for irrigation has changed with the vagaries of nature. The total percentage of irrigation water contributed by ground water, on the other hand, gradually increased to about 15 percent in 1945 and then increased rapidly to 45 percent in 1960; it will probably stabilize at about 50 percent.

Utah↗

USGS1995

Preliminary analysis of down-core biotic assemblages Bob Allen Keys, Everglades National Park, Florida Bay

Introduction A series of short piston cores (< 2m) were taken from eleven stations in Florida Bay in May, 1994 by researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (St. Petersburg, FL., Woods Hole, MA., and Denver CO.) in cooperation with South Florida Water Management District, and the Everglades National Park, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Core 6A from Bob Allen Keys (25° 1.391” N, 80°39.41” W) penetrated 172 cm of Holocene sediments in 0.6 m of water on a grass covered mud bank, approximately 1.75 miles (2.82 km) east of the water monitoring station on the southern end of the Bob Allen Keys. Core 6A was sampled for particle size, insoluble residue, water content, loss on ignition, Pb 210 , Rasup>222, and paleontologic analyses. Here we present the results of the preliminary paleontologic analyses of the biotic components from core #6A. The Everglades/Florida Bay ecosystem has formed over the last 5000 years at the southern tip of peninsular Florida. Here it has been influenced by Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters, and by tropical and subtropical climatic regimes. This location ensures that over time the ecosystem has undergone climatic changes on both a seasonal and long term basis, and that it has been subjected to many major storms. Additionally, in the last century, the hydrologic regime of the region has been altered profoundly through construction of a canal system to control flooding in southern Florida. This system regulates the timing and amount of freshwater flow into Florida Bay. Recently, algal blooms, seagrass, and sponge die-offs, and declining numbers of shellfish, have been reported in Florida Bay; although it has been assumed that these changes have resulted from human alteration of freshwater flow into the bay, this assumption has not been rigorously tested. The research described here is part of a project designed to examine the history of the Everglades/Florida Bay ecosystem over the last 150 years and to test assumptions of cause and effect. The purpose of the project is two-fold; first, to determine the characteristics of the ecosystem prior to significant human-induced alteration, including the natural range of variation in the ecosystem. This information will establish a baseline for restoration of the system. Second, the project aims to establish the extent, range, and timing of changes to the ecosystem over the last 150 years, and to determine whether these changes correlate with human alteration of the environment, or meteorological patterns, such as precipitation and major storms, or a combination of factors.

Florida↗

USGS1976

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – California region

Most people in the California Region live in a semiarid or arid climate, with precipitation less than the potential evapotranspiration- environments of perennial water deficiency. The deficiency becomes most onerous during the characteristically rainless summers and during recurrent droughts that may continue for 10--20 years. However, water from winter rain and snow can be stored for use during the dry summer months, and water stored during a wet climatic period can be used in a succeeding dry period; moreover, perennial deficiency can be overcome by bringing water from areas of perennial surplus. Ground-water reservoirs have especial significance in arid and semiarid regions as repositories where water is stored or can be stored with minimum loss by evaporation. Nearly all the ground-water reservoirs of the California Region are in alluvial sediments of valleys and plains that flank the mountain ranges. The largest, underlying the vast Central Valley, occupies 10 percent of the area of the region, has an estimated usable capacity exceeding 100 million acre-feet (125 cubic kilometres), and has an annual pumpage from wells of about 13 million acre-feet (16 cubic kilometres). Another 10 percent of the region is occupied by 55 developed ground-water reservoirs that are widely distributed; aggregate annual pumpage from them is about 3 1/2 million acre-feet (4 cubic kilometres). In the southeastern desert about 60 ground-water reservoirs occupy still another 10 percent of the region; these have been explored only enough to show that most have some usable water, but current use is negligible. In northeastern California and adjacent Oregon and Nevada, ground-water reservoirs are identified only in valleys and lowlands where wells are feasible, but basaltic rocks of the Cascade Range and Modoc Plateau are excellent aquifers distributed over an area constituting about 15 percent of the region. In sum, slightly less than half the California Region is underlain by ground-water reservoirs, either in valley fill or in volcanic rocks, which can yield significant quantities of water to wells. The rest of the California Region includes the mountains, canyons, slopes, and foothills of the Sierra Nevada, Coast Ranges, and Basin Ranges, whose consolidated rocks and products of their weathering may be permeable locally but are not generally so. Here, the prevailing method of ground-water development is still mostly trial and error, and while in many places a well can yield enough water for a family, some families might have to do without amenities such as flush toilets and automatic washers. For more than half a century the California Region has led all others in North America in pumping of ground water as well as in the area, variety, yield, and export of crops irrigated by water from wells. It has led in the development and use of deep-well turbine pumps for large yield and in the drilling of water wells to great depths. At the same time, such developments have resulted in the elimination of artesian pressures that produced thousands of flowing wells in the 19th century and led to the wide distribution of "falling water tables." Also, California was first to induce encroachment of seawater into wells (in 1906); first to recognize subsidence of land caused by pumping from wells (in 1933), generating news about land sinking in San Jose, Long Beach, and along the Delta-Mendota and Friant-Kern Canals; and first to experience pollution of ground-water reservoirs by brines, chemicals, industrial wastes, and petroleum byproducts including gasoline. The region has led in research in several fields leading to solution of many of these problems. Ground-water problems developed rapidly after World War II with booming population, agriculture, industry, and water demand during several years of regionwide drought. Water levels in wells trended downward almost everywhere as a natural effect of the drought and at accelerated rates in areas of pumping for new enterprises or to supplement subnormal surface-water supplies. The declines in many pumping areas exceeded 100 feet (30 metres), and in some confined aquifers the potentiometric surface was drawn down more than 330 feet (100 metres). The depletion of ground-water storage has had "permanent" side effects, including subsidence of the land exceeding 10 feet (3 metres) in extensive areas, and seawater intrusion that ended the useful lives of many wells along the coast and as much as 6 miles (10 kilometres) inland. Some problems have been solved, but these solutions have at times created other problems. Many ground-water reservoirs have gone through one or more stages - exploration for productive aquifers, exploitation and development for use of the water, restriction to the perennial supply or "safe" yield, importation of surface water, artificial recharge of ground water, conjunctive use of surface and ground water, protection of water quality, and integrated management of use and disposal of water. This evolutionary sequence is unique for each reservoir, and so generalizations become difficult in a regional appraisal; also, the changes with time are significant and varied, and knowledge of prior events is a prerequisite in an appraisal of the resource in a specific year. As of 1970, water levels in many wells had risen significantly from the minimum levels of record reached during the 1960's or earlier; only in areas of new development and in desert areas of long-continued "mining" of nonreplenished water was ground-water storage still being depleted. Land subsidence has continued at diminishing rates and practically has come to a halt in some areas; invading seawater has been stopped or nudged back in most places where problems were significant. The current, favorable situation has been helped by climatic variations, from drought in 1945-52 and exceedingly dry years in 1959 and 1961 to above-normal precipitation in 1969 and 1970; but most of the serious problems have been solved by human efforts, including especially the implementation of the California Water Plan, transporting water from areas of perennial surplus to areas where it is used in lieu of ground water or for ground-water replenishment. All major urban areas now import water to supplement or replace the water pumped from wells. Extensive agricultural areas that formerly were irrigated solely by ground water now obtain some of their water from surface reservoirs and canals, especially in the Central Valley. With surface water available as an alternative supply, well owners can view their ground water with complacency. But complacency can lead to neglect and carelessness and consequent deterioration of the ground-water resource by pollution. Claiming heritage from the English Common Law, the existing California law grants to the landowner (riparian) and private enterprise (appropriator) rights to the water stored in ground-water reservoirs or discharged from them, including the base flow of streams. Ground-water development has been by private and local enterprise, and the California legislature has protected and encouraged local responsibility, control, and management of ground water. As to surface water, a constitutional amendment in 1928 limited riparian rights to the quantities of water that were "reasonably required for the beneficial use to be served." The surpluses have become public waters which are collected, stored, transported, and delivered under various contracts by Federal, State, and other agencies. The agencies have not stored water underground because of uncertainty as to their rights, but some local agencies have been encouraged with favorable pricing schedules to undertake the artificial recharge and management of ground-water reservoirs. Thus, conjunctive use of surface and ground water has become a matter of interagency negotiation. Of all the constraints on effective use of ground-water reservoirs, the most formidable may be the attitudes of people. Assurance of water supply is vital in areas of water deficiency, and Government has assumed increasing responsibility for the welfare of people in these areas. Unfortunately, when Government provides this assurance, most beneficiaries demand continued subsidy to the exclusion of perhaps cheaper private development. Indeed, as the water resources are presently segregated-with private rights predominant in ground water and public interest dominant in surface water-ground-water development has suffered for lack of public concern. The region has the scientific and technologic capability for effective use of groundwater reservoirs, as shown by the achievements and programs of several districts, but many districts are not organized or staffed for such comprehensive management and will need assistance and scientific expertise available from State and Federal agencies. Those agencies, in turn, may not have the scientific data that are essential to prevent haphazard activities and to enable programs to be organized for the most effective and attractive utilization of the water resources. In these days of increasing concern over pollution, existing data are generally inadequate to assess the natural deterioration of ground waters as a basis for defining pollution.

California↗

USGS1984

Water-level and water-quality changes in Great Salt Lake, Utah, 1847-1983

The surface level of Great Salt Lake, Utah, fluctuates continuously, primarily in response to climatic factors. During 1847-1982 the lake surface fluctuated between a low of about 4,191 feet and a high of about 4,212 feet above sea level but showed no net change. From September 18, 1982, to June 30, 1983, however, the lake rose 5.2 feet-from about 4,200 to about 4,205 feet above sea level-which is the greatest seasonal rise ever recorded. That rise resulted from considerably greater than average rainfall in 1982, greater than average snowfall during the autumn of 1982 through the spring of 1983, and unseasonably cool weather during that spring. Man's activities have had a lesser, but still important effect on the lake level. The lake surface would have been about 5 feet higher in 1983 had there been no consumptive use of water owing to man's activities in the lake basin since 1847. The lake has been divided into two parts by a railroad causeway since 1959. The causeway restricts natural circulation, resulting in a difference of salinity and surface level of the lake across the causeway. The difference in surface level between the two parts of the lake varies both seasonally and annually and was as much as 3.25 feet in 1983. The water budget for the Great Salt Lake can be expressed as: Inflow = Outflow ± Storage change The average annual inflow for 1931-76 was about 2.9 million acre-feet-about 1.9 million acre-feet from surface water, about 900,000 acre-feet from direct precipitation, and about 75,000 acre-feet from ground water. The average annual outflow for the same period, all by evaporation, also was about 2.9 million acre-feet. There was no net change in storage during the period. The famed buoyancy of the brine in Great Salt Lake results from a dissolved-mineral content of almost 5 billion tons. More than 2 million additional tons have been added to the lake annually in recent years. The major dissolved ions in the brine are chloride, sulfate, sodium, magnesium, and potassium. Prior to completion of the railroad causeway, the salinity of the brine varied inversely with the lake level. Since the causeway divided the lake into two parts, the salinity of the brine in the north part has been relatively constant at or close to saturation. The salinity of the brine in the south part has 1 continued to change inversely with the lake level, but the salinity has been less than it would have been without the causeway.

Utah↗

USGS2021

Appendix C: Central sands lakes study technical report: Modeling documentation

This report provides the necessary documentation of the numerical models developed for the Central Sands Lake study in central Wisconsin and will be included as a technical appendix in the report to the Wisconsin State Legislature by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) in response to 2017 Wisconsin Act 10. This legislation directed WDNR to determine whether existing and potential groundwater withdrawals are causing or are likely to cause significant reduction of mean seasonal water levels at Pleasant Lake, Long Lake, and Plainfield Lake (s. 281.34(7m)(2)(b), Wis. Stats.) in Waushara County, Wisconsin. To evaluate the potential hydrologic connection between groundwater withdrawals and the nearby study lakes, hydrologic models were created that focused on the lakes of interest and yet were large enough to cover a broad enough region to extend to the major hydrologic boundaries of the natural flow system. The areas near the lakes require finer-scale grid discretization (or spacing) to better represent the lakes and streams in the model, but also need to cover a large enough area to include the groundwater withdrawal locations that have the potential to cause reduction in water levels in the lakes. To accomplish these goals, three groundwater models were created: a regional model extending to major hydrologic boundaries; and two inset models, inheriting boundaries from the regional model but focused near the lakes. Each of the inset models, in turn, included a detailed area close to the lakes surrounded by an area at the same spatial scale as the regional model (Figure 1). To support WDNR in evaluating the connection between groundwater withdrawals and lake levels, a representative time period was required over which to compare land use with and without irrigated agriculture and for WDNR to evaluate potential lake stage and flux changes related to irrigated agriculture. WDNR chose the climate period of 1981-2018 to be representative of a typical period and provided two land use scenarios—one with no irrigated agriculture and one with assumed crop rotations similar to current conditions—to simulate with groundwater models to, then, compare lake responses with. As a result, simulations over this climate record are not intended to recreate the history of 1981-2018 because land use changed over that time. These runs are, instead, intended to provide a basis on which to compare land use with and without irrigation-related groundwater withdrawals based on the current arrangement of land use and a varied climatic record. Groundwater withdrawals focused on irrigated-agriculture-related water use because greater than 95% of groundwater withdrawal in the two inset models around the study lakes is for irrigated agriculture water use. The period of 2012-2018 was used for parameter estimation (synonymously referred to as “history matching”) for the groundwater models. This time period was chosen because it includes the most complete water use records to simulate groundwater withdrawals. History matching was performed using groundwater elevations, lake stages, and streamflow observations over the 2012-2018 time period and processed observations derived from those raw data. Climatic data were incorporated into the model using a soil-water balance approach. A soil water balance model was constructed at the scale of the regional groundwater model to both calculate recharge based on land use and climate, and in the long-term climate-period runs, to estimate water use required by irrigated agriculture to apply as well boundary conditions in the groundwater model in the absence of reported water use values over that period.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Longitudinal trends and discontinuities in nutrients, chlorophyll, and suspended solids in the Upper Mississippi River: Implications for transport, processing, and export by large rivers

Across the distances spanned by large rivers, there are important differences in catchment characteristics, tributary inputs, and river morphology that may cause longitudinal changes in nutrient, chlorophyll, and suspended solids concentrations. We investigated longitudinal and seasonal patterns in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) using long-term data (1994-2005) from five study reaches that spanned 1300 km of the UMR. Lake Pepin, a natural lake in the most upstream study reach, had a clear effect on suspended material in the river. Suspended solids and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were substantially lower downstream of the lake and percent organic material (OM%) in suspension was higher. Below L. Pepin, mean total and organic suspended solids (TSS, OSS) and TP increased downriver and exhibited approximately log-linear relationships with catchment area, whereas OM% declined substantially downriver. Despite the downriver increase in TSS and OSS, concentrations similar to those above L. Pepin do not occur until ~370 km downriver indicating the extent of the influence of L. Pepin on the UMR. Chlorophyll concentrations were lower in the most downstream study reach, likely reflecting the shorter residence time and poor light climate, but there was not a consistent longitudinal decline in chlorophyll across the study reaches. Dissolved silica (DSi), DSi:TN, and DSi:TP declined downriver suggesting that DSi uptake and sedimentation by river phytoplankton may be reducing DSi transport in the river, and indicating that the eutrophication of the river may contribute to a reduction of DSi export to the Gulf of Mexico. ?? 2010 US Government: USGS.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2022

21st-century stagnation in unvegetated sand-sea activity

Sand seas are vast expanses of Earth’s surface containing large areas of aeolian dunes—topographic patterns manifest from above-threshold winds and a supply of loose sand. Predictions of the role of future climate change for sand-sea activity are sparse and contradictory. Here we examine the impact of climate on all of Earth’s presently-unvegetated sand seas, using ensemble runs of an Earth System Model for historical and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We find that almost all of the sand seas decrease in activity relative to present-day and industrial-onset for all future SSP scenarios, largely due to more intermittent sand-transport events. An increase in event wait-times and decrease in sand transport is conducive to vegetation growth. We expect dune-forming winds will become more unimodal, and produce larger incipient wavelengths, due to weaker and more seasonal winds. Our results indicate that these qualitative changes in Earth’s deserts cannot be mitigated.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2025

American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) as wetland ecosystem carbon stock regulators

Blue carbon refers to organic carbon sequestered by oceanic and coastal ecosystems. This stock has gained global attention as a high organic carbon repository relative to other ecosystems. Within blue carbon ecosystems, tidally influenced wetlands alone store a disproportionately higher amount of organic carbon than other blue carbon systems. North America harbors 42% of tidally influenced global wetland area, which has been identified as a critical carbon stock in the context of climate change mitigation. However, quantified associations between vertebrate biota and carbon sequestration within ecosystems are in their infancy and have been incidental, given that microbial trophic levels are thought to drive nutrient dynamics. Here, we assess the relationship between American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) demography and tidally influenced wetland soil carbon stock among habitats at continental, biogeographically-relevant, and local scales. We used soil core profile data from the Smithsonian’s Coastal Carbon Network and filtered for continuous core profiles in tidally influenced wetland areas along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States. Results indicate that American alligator presence is positively correlated with soil carbon stock across habitats within their native distribution. Further, American alligator demographic variables are positively correlated with soil carbon stock at local scales. These conclusions are concordant with previous findings that apex predators, through trophic cascade theory, play a key role in regulating soil carbon stock and that alligators are functional apex predators in carbon dynamics and a key commercialized natural resource.

Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana↗

USGS2008

The regional and global significance of nitrogen removal in lakes and reservoirs

Human activities have greatly increased the transport of biologically available nitrogen (N) through watersheds to potentially sensitive coastal ecosystems. Lentic water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) have the potential to act as important sinks for this reactive N as it is transported across the landscape because they offer ideal conditions for N burial in sediments or permanent loss via denitrification. However, the patterns and controls on lentic N removal have not been explored in great detail at large regional to global scales. In this paper we describe, evaluate, and apply a new, spatially explicit, annual-scale, global model of lentic N removal called NiRReLa (Nitrogen Retention in Reservoirs and Lakes). The NiRReLa model incorporates small lakes and reservoirs than have been included in previous global analyses, and also allows for separate treatment and analysis of reservoirs and natural lakes. Model runs for the mid-1990s indicate that lentic systems are indeed important sinks for N and are conservatively estimated to remove 19.7 Tg N year -1 from watersheds globally. Small lakes (<50 km 2 ) were critical in the analysis, retaining almost half (9.3 Tg N year -1 ) of the global total. In model runs, capacity of lakes and reservoirs to remove watershed N varied substantially at the half-degree scale (0-100%) both as a function of climate and the density of lentic systems. Although reservoirs occupy just 6% of the global lentic surface area, we estimate they retain ~33% of the total N removed by lentic systems, due to a combination of higher drainage ratios (catchment surface area:lake or reservoir surface area), higher apparent settling velocities for N, and greater average N loading rates in reservoirs than in lakes. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of NiRReLa suggests that, on-average, N removal within lentic systems will respond more strongly to changes in land use and N loading than to changes in climate at the global scale. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2020

Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.

Global Environmental Change↗

USGS2026

Enhancements to the USGS Landsat Level 2 surface temperature and emissivity product for Collection 3 reprocessing

The Landsat program provides the longest continuous global record of thermal infrared observations of the Earth's surface, underpinning critical applications in climate monitoring, water resources, ecosystem dynamics, urban heat analysis, and natural hazard assessment. The release of a global inventory of Landsat Collection 2 Level 2 surface temperature products by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) marked a major milestone in operational provision of Landsat thermal infrared analysis-ready data. Ongoing validations and community uses of Collection 2 have identified opportunities to further improve accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and emissivity correction across diverse atmospheric and surface conditions. In preparation for the planned Landsat Collection 3 reprocessing of the Landsat data record in the late 2020s, the USGS is implementing a coordinated set of enhancements to the Level 2 surface temperature products. These include revised emissivity estimation that leverages external datasets, improved atmospheric characterization and uncertainty propagation, expanded dynamic range for high temperature targets, consideration of split window atmospheric correction algorithm for Landsat 8 and 9, and decoupling of thermal infrared processing from visible to shortwave infrared constraints to enable surface temperature retrievals under low or no solar illumination conditions. These changes are designed to improve product quality and consistency across the Landsat record. Beyond near-term performance gains, the Collection 3 design establishes a scalable processing architecture to accommodate the expanded spectral and radiometric measurement capabilities of the forthcoming Landsat 10 mission. By preserving continuity across the Landsat 4–9 record while enabling future algorithm evolution, Landsat Collection 3 will provide a foundation for long-term, multi-decadal Earth system thermal infrared observations.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗