USGS ScienceSearch

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Environmental Management”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,661 records · Page 80Linked to original sources

Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States

Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Scientific Investigations Report

Streamflow, base-flow, and precipitation trends and simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer on base flows upgradient from Lake Altus, western Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used five scenarios created from a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model (1980–2013) and historical streamflow records (1980–2022) to investigate the relation between groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer and inflows to Lake Altus from the North Fork Red River in western Oklahoma. The five scenarios were (1) a scaled-equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (2) a study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (3) a zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (4) a historical drought-threshold scenario, and (5) a base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario. For the scaled-EPS groundwater-withdrawal scenario, EPS groundwater withdrawals were often much higher than reported groundwater withdrawals and greatly decreased base flows for most scale factors. For the study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, base flows were reduced more but by smaller percentages during wet periods than during dry periods when scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals. For the zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals within selected zones with more groundwater withdrawals did not always affect base flows more than scaling reported groundwater withdrawals within zones with less groundwater withdrawals. For the historical drought-threshold scenario, curtailing groundwater withdrawals at the drought thresholds increased annual base flows to Lake Altus by about 1,169 to 3,665 acre-feet. For the base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario, the distance between a groundwater well and a stream was a major factor affecting base flow to the North Fork Red River when increasing groundwater withdrawals; however, spatially variable hydrologic properties and saturated-zone evapotranspiration could also affect the relation between base flows and groundwater withdrawals.

Oklahoma

A global database of soil microbial phospholipid fatty acids and enzyme activities

Soil microbes drive ecosystem function and play a critical role in how ecosystems respond to global change. Research surrounding soil microbial communities has rapidly increased in recent decades, and substantial data relating to phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) and potential enzyme activity have been collected and analysed. However, studies have mostly been restricted to local and regional scales, and their accuracy and usefulness are limited by the extent of accessible data. Here we aim to improve data availability by collating a global database of soil PLFA and potential enzyme activity measurements from 12,258 georeferenced samples located across all continents, 5.1% of which have not previously been published. The database contains data relating to 113 PLFAs and 26 enzyme activities, and includes metadata such as sampling date, sample depth, and soil pH, total carbon, and total nitrogen. This database will help researchers in conducting both global- and local-scale studies to better understand soil microbial biomass and function.

Scientific Data

A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods

Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric bulking and increased frictional resistance. Here, we use this flow amplification to develop a metric ( Q* ) to separate debris flows from floods based on the ratio of observed peak discharge to the theoretical maximum water discharge from rainfall runoff. We compile 642 observations of floods and debris flows and demonstrate that Q* distinguishes flow type to ∼92% accuracy. Q* allows for accurate identification of debris flows through simple channel cross-section surveys rather than through qualitative interpretation of deposits, and therefore should increase the performance of models and engineered structures that require accurate flow-type observations.

Geophysical Research Letters

Peak-discharge frequency and potential extreme peak discharge for natural streams in the Brazos River basin, Texas

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges were estimated for 186 streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of data for natural streams in and near the Brazos River Basin, Texas. Multiple regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for each of three hydrologic regions that compose the Brazos River Basin. The equations for each region are a function of significant basin characteristics (explanatory variables). The significant explanatory variables among six that were tested are the contributing drainage area and stream slope for regions 1 and 2 and the contributing drainage area for region 3. For the three sets of equations, the coefficient of determination ranges from 0.59 to 0.93, and the standard error ranges from 0.184 to 0.391 log units. A larger coefficient of determination and a lower standard error generally are associated with the equations for hydrologic regions 2 and 3. Statistics from the regression analysis allow computation of the prediction interval associated with a given significance level for a peak-discharge frequency estimate. The regression equations can be used to estimate peak discharges for sites at, near, or away from sites with streamflow-gaging stations. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves as related to contributing drainage area were estimated for each of the three hydrologic regions from measured extreme peaks of record at 186 sites with streamflow-gaging stations and from measured extreme peaks at 37 sites without streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Brazos River Basin. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves generally are similar for hydrologic regions 1 and 2, and the curve for region 3 consistently is below the curves for regions 1 and 2, which indicates smaller peak discharges.

Texas

The Mammoth magnetic anomaly, Pinal County, Arizona

A high-resolution Earth Mapping Resources Initiative airborne geophysical survey was flown in the southwest North American porphyry copper province to improve bedrock geologic maps and to identify areas that have unrecognized critical mineral resource potential. During the review of the aeromagnetic data, a distinctly monopolar-shaped, negative magnetic anomaly was observed at a flight elevation of 200 m above the ground with a maximum amplitude of –9500 nT. We have named this the Mammoth magnetic anomaly (MMA) because it is centered 12 km northeast of the town of Mammoth, Arizona, USA. The total field anomaly (TFA) contour of –500 nT enclosing the MMA defines an elongate shape measuring 2.5 km long by 1 km wide that trends northwest–southeast. Given the striking nature of this negative, monopolar-shaped magnetic anomaly, we conducted a ground campaign in May 2025 to determine its authenticity and potential relationship to critical mineral endowment. The MMA was confirmed on the ground with a TFA approaching –46,000 nT. Total magnetic intensity (TMI) observations routinely fell below the 18,000 nT operating floor of an industry-standard cesium-vapor total field magnetometer, and extremely low TMI measurements were corroborated along coincident traverse lines using two high dynamic range, but lower sensitivity, smartphone vector magnetometers. The lowest TMI values recorded by both smartphone magnetometers were 1000 nT and confirmed with multiple adjacent and crossing lines. Field observations suggest that this magnetic feature is caused by strong remanent magnetization within fine-grained magnetite hosted within locally altered Pinal Schist.

Arizona

Bathymetric contour maps, surface area and capacity tables, and bathymetric change maps for selected water-supply lakes in Missouri, 2022–23

Bathymetric data were collected at 13 water-supply lakes around the periphery of Missouri by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and various local agencies, as part of a multiyear effort to establish or update the surface area and capacity tables for the surveyed lakes. Surveys were carried out during the months of April and May in 2022 and 2023. All but two of the lakes had been surveyed previously by the U.S. Geological Survey, and the recent surveys were compared to the earlier surveys to document the changes in the bathymetric surface and capacity of the lake. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system mounted on a boat. Supplemental depth data at three of the lakes were collected in shallow areas with an acoustic Doppler current profiler on a remote-controlled boat. Data points from the various sources were exported at a gridded data resolution appropriate to each lake, either 0.82 foot, 1.64 feet, or 3.28 feet. Data outside the multibeam survey extent and greater than the surveyed water-surface elevation were obtained from data collected using aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) point cloud data. A linear enforcement technique was used to add points to the dataset in areas of sparse data (the upper ends of coves where the water was shallow or aquatic vegetation precluded data acquisition) based on surrounding multibeam and upland data values. The various point datasets were used to produce a three-dimensional triangulated irregular network surface of the lake-bottom elevations for each lake. A surface area and capacity table was produced from the three-dimensional surface for each lake showing surface area and capacity at specified lake water-surface elevations. Various quality-assurance tests were conducted to ensure quality data were collected with the multibeam, including beam angle checks and patch tests. Additional quality-assurance tests were conducted on the gridded bathymetric data from the survey, the bathymetric surface created from the gridded data, and the contours created from the bathymetric survey.

Missouri

Land-use interactions, Oil-Field infrastructure, and natural processes control hydrocarbon and arsenic concentrations in groundwater, Poso Creek Oil Field, California, USA

Like many hydrocarbon production areas in the U.S., the Poso Creek Oil Field in California includes and is adjacent to other land uses (agricultural and other developed lands) that affect the hydrology and geochemistry of the aquifer overlying and adjacent to oil development. We hypothesize that the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater in such areas will be controlled by complex interactions between mixed land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes. In 2020–2021, samples of groundwater and surface water were collected and analyzed for a large suite of inorganic and organic chemicals and isotope and gas tracers to test this hypothesis. Those data are supplemented with ancillary data on historical geochemistry, hydrology, geology, and oil-field infrastructure. Hydrocarbons in groundwater (e.g., methane through pentane gases and benzene) are associated with natural processes (e.g., fault offsets or transition in sediment depositional environment) and oil-field infrastructure (e.g., fluid-migration pathways associated with uncemented annulus in oil wells or unlined pits). Arsenic concentrations >10 μg per liter (μg/L; maximum concentration 12.9 μg/L) are associated with natural processes in old, high-pH groundwater, and more recent recharge of water from natural and/or engineered recharge processes. Along the southwest margin of the oil field, pumping for drinking-water and irrigation supplies in combination with engineered groundwater recharge produce a depression in groundwater elevations where groundwater with elevated sulfate concentrations from agricultural areas and groundwater with hydrocarbons from the oil field mix to produce a zone of sulfate reduction that removes hydrocarbons and arsenic from groundwater but produces elevated sulfide (S 2- ) concentrations (maximum concentration 29 mg per liter, mg/L). In this study, multiple approaches were required to resolve the overlapping effects of land uses, oil-field infrastructure, and natural processes on the distributions of hydrocarbons and arsenic in groundwater. The combined use of geographic, historical, physical, chemical, isotopic, and other information to constrain processes could be a useful approach for studies in other hydrocarbon-production areas. This is particularly important where land uses affect aquifer hydrology to an extent that causes mixing of groundwaters with different chemical compositions.

California

Three-dimensional seismic velocity models for the San Francisco Bay region, California from joint body-wave and surface-wave tomography validated by waveform simulation

A high-resolution seismic velocity model for both P and S waves is essential for the San Francisco Bay (SFB) region to accurately simulate earthquake ground motions and assess seismic hazards in this high-risk region. We present new three-dimensional P-wave and S-wave velocity (Vp and Vs) models of the SFB region developed using joint tomographic inversion with a rich set of earthquake and active-source body-wave data and ambient-noise surface-wave data. We designed a dynamic balance strategy to effectively balance the contributions of body-wave and surface-wave data during each iteration of the inversion. Owing to the complementary resolution of body-wave and surface-wave data, our new models are significantly improved compared to previous tomographic models. Major geologic features in the SFB region, including low-velocity basins, high-velocity Franciscan Complex, granite, and gabbro rocks, and across-fault velocity contrasts, are imaged in our Vp and Vs models. Compared to the geology-based U.S. Geological Survey velocity model, our new model has better defined structures for some important areas that are of great concern for seismic hazard assessment, such as the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and the 2014 magnitude 6.0 South Napa earthquake area. We validated our model by simulating waveforms for a set of moderate-magnitude earthquakes. The good performance of our model in waveform simulation indicates its potential for improving ground motion simulation and seismic hazard assessment in the SFB region.

California

Potential warming-induced changes in stream water sources between proglacial and non-glacial streams, south-central Alaska

Snow and ice-melt are essential for global water resources. Rising air temperatures are causing vegetation encroachment and shrubification of previously snow- and ice-covered landscapes, and precipitation regimes are changing. Collectively, these changes will likely affect the hydrology of mountain environments, although the exact ways in which the hydrology will change are poorly understood. Changing source waters (i.e., the proportion of ice-melt, snowmelt, rain and groundwater) affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow and affect stream temperature, sediment, solute and nutrient fluxes. We investigate spatial and seasonal source water contributions across sub-watersheds of the Nellie Juan River watershed on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula, which differ in glacier cover, elevation and land cover, using a space-for-time approach. To do so, we use a three-endmember mixing model to quantify the contribution of rain, snow/ice-melt and deep groundwater. We show that snow/ice-melt peak later in proglacial streams compared to non-glacial streams. Endmember contributions in non-glacial streams generally vary with elevation and season. We also found that groundwater is a major contributor to streamflow across the study area, contributing between 12% and 47% seasonally, and may become increasingly important as snowpack and ice-melt decrease. This research characterises the shift from a glacierised to a deglaciating landscape through the lens of source water contribution. Broadly, these findings could help improve understanding of how water resources in glacierised watersheds are affected by warming air temperatures.

Alaska

SURF: An automated method for building nonplanar 3D fault models from earthquake hypocenters

Accurately characterizing 3D fault geometry is vital for improving our understanding of earthquake behavior and informing the development of seismic hazard models. Despite their importance, subsurface fault structures tend to be poorly constrained because of limitations in observational data. Improvements to the seismic networks and earthquake detection algorithms have increased the precision and volume of earthquake catalogs, which help illuminate detailed subsurface fault structure and provide the most direct information available about fault geometries at depth. We present a Python package to automate generating 3D fault geometries directly from hypocentral seismicity patterns. This method begins with clustering events based on their spatial density, identifying coherent patterns. Nearby clusters are then merged based on the similarity of their orientations. We fit nonplanar surfaces using support vector regression to balance surface accuracy with minimal deviations from planarity. The fault models are output as quadrilateral meshes at user‐defined resolution. In the process of generating the 3D fault surfaces, we compute the spatial density of seismicity around the surface and the planarity as quantitative metrics of the model outputs. As a proof of concept, we apply this approach to the San Andreas–Calaveras fault junction region and the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, both in California, which contain complex subparallel faults well defined at the Earth’s surface and abundant microseismicity. These case studies demonstrate the method’s ability to model complex fault structures, including long continuous fault surfaces, crossing faults, variably dipping segments, and subparallel faults. We test the method on both standard network catalogs and double‐difference relocated catalogs. We find that our seismicity‐based fault model results align with published 3D models that incorporate additional constraints and interpretations ( Plesch et al. , 2020 ; Aagaard and Hirakawa, 2021 ). This workflow provides a low‐user‐input solution for estimating fault geometries at depth from earthquake catalogs.

California

Long-term trends in microseismicity during operational shut-ins at the Coso Geothermal Field, California

Pausing injection and production can lead to induced seismicity in a variety of settings, with some of the largest events occurring during these so-called shut-ins. In geothermal fields, shut-ins are periodically conducted for maintenance on wells and surface infrastructure, thereby offering recurring means of estimating stress changes in the subsurface that lead to increased seismicity rates. Here, we examine daily production and microseismicity data from the Coso Geothermal Field (CGF) in California between 1996 and 2010 to investigate the repetitive trends of operational shut-in microseismicity. Using 24 local seismic stations, we first analyze spatial and temporal trends of over 60,000 earthquakes with magnitudes between -0.4 to 3.8. We find that the northern region exhibits no significant seismicity changes during shut-ins, whereas the rest of the field experiences induced seismicity during almost every shut-in with an increasing intensity towards the southern and eastern portions of the field, highlighting local differences in stress within the CGF. Additionally, we cluster the seismicity using waveform cross-correlation, revealing several earthquake clusters primarily occurring during shut-in periods. These observations suggest that certain fracture and fault sections respond quicker to changes in pore pressure and poroelastic stresses within the geothermal system, possibly highlighting main fluid pathways.

California

Characterizing sedimentary organic carbon in a hydrothermal spreading center, the Escanaba Trough

Sediments in critical marine mineral environments are of wide importance due to their preservation of both marine minerals and organic carbon (OC) stocks. However, OC storage and cycling is often overlooked in mineral system studies. This work characterizes sedimentary OC within the Escanaba Trough, a hydrothermal sulfide system off the coast of northern California. By utilizing ROV-based push coring, we collected sediments near and far from high temperature, low temperature, and inactive vents. We applied a multipronged organic geochemical approach, measuring bulk sediment, OC fractions of varying labilities, and biomarkers to tease apart the storage, source, and cycling of OC within this complex system. In contrast to past work indicating a primarily terrestrial source to deeper, Pleistocene sediments, our results suggest a primarily marine source in surface sediments at least 50 m away from active venting. Near active venting, we see evidence of locally produced chemosynthetic OC in addition to the background marine source. This chemosynthetic OC appears to be rapidly remineralized and supports more complex deep-sea food webs compared to hemipelagic sites. Still, the greatest contribution of labile OC was observed at inactive vent sites, which we suggest is due to hydrothermal fluid alteration of more labile OC at actively venting sites. Depending on fluid temperature, hydrothermally altered OC is either preserved in the sediments as petroleum or migrated with fluid flow. Considering inactive sites are those most likely to be targeted by potential mining, we suggest additional studies could verify if these results apply at other sedimented seafloor massive sulfide systems.

California

The Sand AbrasioN Device for Aeolian Research (SANDAR): A new experimental device for investigating how wind transport affects sand on Earth and Mars

On Earth and Mars, aeolian transport causes sand grains to become abraded, resulting in mineralogic and textural changes. Understanding how sands evolve, or mature, with transport via experimental studies is important for understanding the origins, geologic history, and cycling of sediments, as well as dust production. Previous experimental works have used a variety of methods to simulate aeolian transport in the laboratory, but practical limitations and similitude concerns have limited such research. Here, we present and validate the Sand AbrasioN Device for Aeolian Research (SANDAR), a modified air mill that uses pressurized air to circulate sand around a small abrasion chamber, simulating the effects of aeolian transport. This device is re-circulating to simulate long-distance transport, and it allows for repeated analyses of well-constrained sediment samples, revealing their evolution over time. It is compatible with the grain sizes (74–500 μm) and grain impact velocities (∼0.6–3.7 m/s) typically expected for natural aeolian environments, and is also adaptable for diverse applications simulating different wind conditions. We show that the SANDAR achieves similitude of kinetic energy with respect to saltating sand on both Earth and Mars. SEM and optical microscope imaging reveal that the SANDAR produces microtextures on the surfaces of sand grains similar to those found with natural aeolian transport, demonstrating that it effectively simulates the mechanical effects of aeolian processes. Thus, the SANDAR is a valid tool for use in experimental research to improve our understanding of sedimentary processes across the Solar System.

Aeolian Research

Hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the Horse Creek basin, west-central Florida, October 1992-February 1995

A baseline study of the 241-square-mile Horse Creek basin was undertaken from October 1992 to February 1995 to assess the hydrologic and water-quality conditions of one of the last remaining undeveloped basins in west-central Florida. During the period of the study, much of the basin remained in a natural state, except for limited areas of cattle and citrus production and phosphate mining. Rainfall in 1993 and 1994 in the Horse Creek basin was 8 and 31 percent, respectively, above the 30-year long-term average. The lowest and highest maximum instantaneous peak discharge of the six daily discharge stations occurred at the Buzzard Roost Branch and the Horse Creek near Arcadia stations with 185 to 4,180 cubic feet per second, respectively. The Horse Creek near Arcadia station had the lowest number of no-flow days with zero days and the Brushy Creek station had the highest number with 113 days. During the study, the West Fork Horse Creek subbasin had the highest daily mean discharge per square mile with 30.6 cubic feet per second per square mile, and the largest runoff coefficient of 43.7 percent. The Buzzard Roost Branch subbasin had the lowest daily mean discharge per square mile with 5.05 cubic feet per second per square mile, and Brushy Creek and Brandy Branch shared the lowest runoff coefficient of 0.6 percent. Brandy Branch had the highest monthly mean runoff in both 1993 and 1994 with 11.48 and 19.28 inches, respectively. During the high-baseflow seepage run, seepage gains were 8.87 cubic feet per second along the 43-mile Horse Creek channel. However, during the low-baseflow seepage run, seepage losses were 0.88 cubic foot per second. Three methods were used to estimate average annual ground-water recharge in the Horse Creek basin: (1) well hydrograph, (2) chloride mass balance, and (3) streamflow hydrograph. Estimated average annual recharge using these three methods ranged from 3.6 to 8.7 inches. The high percentage of carbonate plus bicarbonate analyzed at the Carlton surficial aquifer well could indicate an upward ground-water flow from the underlying intermediate aquifer system. Based on constituent concentrations in water samples from the six daily discharge stations, concentrations generally are lower in the upper three subbasins, West Fork Horse Creek, Upper Horse Creek, and Brushy Creek than in the lower three subbasins. Typically, concentrations were highest for major ions at Buzzard Roost Branch and nutrients at Brushy Creek.

Florida

Dating a medieval tsunami with uranium-series techniques on Caribbean corals

Uranium-series dates from coral boulders constrain the timing of a medieval tsunami from the Puerto Rico Trench. Previously reported evidence for this tsunami includes hundreds of coral boulders that came to rest hundreds of meters inland on Anegada, British Virgin Islands. New U-series dates on these coral boulders provide limiting dates for the tsunami. The narrowest limits were by dating interior bands of a coral that retains the hemispherical form of a living coral colony, and which include adjustments for the number of annual density band couplets between the dated samples and the boulder exteriors. By those limits, the tsunami dates between 1381 and 1391 CE, and likely occurred during summer or fall. The tsunami is important as the only reported sign that the eastern Puerto Rico Trench has produced a great earthquake. The dating may aid in defining the earthquake source and in communicating tsunami hazards.

British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico

Modeling byproduct and coproduct mine production and mineral substitution using multidimensional supply curves: Application to the Cu-Co-Ni system and beyond

Rapid demand growth is expected for many metals used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproducts of other commodities. Byproduct production’s price response is tied to host mineral economics, complicating its supply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metals are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteries, high cobaltprices may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickel demand surface to decrease with nickel price but increase with cobaltprice, creating a two-dimensional demand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elements, ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly produced commodities.

Conference Paper

Updated three-dimensional temperature maps for the Great Basin, USA

As part of the periodic update of the geothermal energy assessments for the USA (e.g., last update by Williams and others, 2008), a new three-dimensional temperature map has been constructed for the Great Basin, USA. Williams and DeAngelo (2011) identified uncertainty in estimates of conductive heat flow near land surface as the largest contributor to uncertainty in previously published temperature maps. The new temperature maps incorporate new conductive heat flow estimates developed by DeAngelo and others (2023). Predicted temperatures at depth are compared with representative measurements (for conductively dominated conditions), showing good agreement under relatively simple uniform conditions. Inputs included radiogenic heat production for all layers of 1.89 μW/m 3 , effective bulk thermal conductivity of 2.7 W/m/°C for all rocks underlying sedimentary basins, and a previously published (Williams and DeAngelo, 2011) empirically driven estimate of increasing thermal conductivity with depth in sedimentary sequences. The resulting three-dimensional temperature model is published in a USGS data release associated with this manuscript (Burns and others, 2023).

Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah