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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Recent climate trends and implications for water resources in the Catskill Mountain region, New York, USA

Climate scientists have concluded that the earth’s surface air temperature warmed by 0.6 °C during the 20th century, and that warming induced by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is likely to continue in the 21st century, accompanied by changes in the hydrologic cycle. Climate change has important implications in the Catskill region of southeastern New York State, because the region is a source of water supply for New York City. We used the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test to evaluate annual, monthly, and multi-month trends in air temperature, precipitation amount, stream runoff, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the region during 1952–2005 based on data from 9 temperature sites, 12 precipitation sites, and 8 stream gages. A general pattern of warming temperatures and increased precipitation, runoff, and PET is evident in the region. Regional annual mean air temperature increased significantly by 0.6 °C per 50 years during the period; the greatest increases and largest number of significant upward trends were in daily minimum air temperature. Daily maximum air temperature showed the greatest increase during February through April, whereas minimum air temperature showed the greatest increase during May through September. Regional mean precipitation increased significantly by 136 mm per 50 years, nearly double that of the regional mean increase in runoff, which was not significant. Regional mean PET increased significantly by 19 mm per 50 years, about one-seventh that of the increase in precipitation amount, and broadly consistent with increased runoff during 1952–2005, despite the lack of significance in the mean regional runoff trend. Peak snowmelt as approximated by the winter–spring center of volume of stream runoff generally shifted from early April at the beginning of the record to late March at the end of the record, consistent with a decreasing trend in April runoff and an increasing trend in maximum March air temperature. This change indicates an increased supply of water to reservoirs earlier in the year. Additionally, the supply of water to reservoirs at the beginning of winter is greater as indicated by the timing of the greatest increases in precipitation and runoff—both occurred during summer and fall. The future balance between changes in air temperature and changes in the timing and amount of precipitation in the region will have important implications for the available water supply in the region.

New York↗

USGS2001

Biogeochemistry of silica in Devils Lake: Implications for diatom preservation

Diatom-salinity records from sediment cores have been used to construct climate records of saline-lake basins. In many cases, this has been done without thorough understanding of the preservation potential of the diatoms in the sediments through time. The purpose of this study was to determine the biogeochemistry of silica in Devils Lake and evaluate the potential effects of silica cycling on diatom preservation. During the period of record, 1867-1999, lake levels have fluctuated from 427 m above sea level in 1940 to 441.1 m above sea level in 1999. The biogeochemistry of silica in Devils Lake is dominated by internal cycling. During the early 1990s when lake levels were relatively high, about 94% of the biogenic silica (BSi) produced in Devils Lake was recycled in the water column before burial. About 42% of the BSi that was incorporated in bottom sediments was dissolved and diffused back into the lake, and the remaining 58% was buried. Therefore, the BSi accumulation rate was about 3% of the BSi assimilation rate. Generally, the results obtained from this study are similar to those obtained from studies of the biogeochemistry of silica in large oligotrophic lakes and the open ocean where most of the BSi produced is recycled in surface water. During the mid 1960s when lake levels were relatively low, BSi assimilation and water-column dissolution rates were much higher than when lake levels were high. The BSi assimilation rate was as much as three times higher during low lake levels. Even with the much higher BSi assimilation rate, the BSi accumulation rate was about three times lower because the BSi water-column dissolution rate was more than 99% of the BSi assimilation rate compared to 94% during high lake levels. Variations in the biogeochemistry of silica with lake level have important implications for paleolimnologic studies. Increased BSi water-column dissolution during decreasing lake levels may alter the diatom-salinity record by selectively removing the less resistant diatoms. Also, BSi accumulation may be proportional to the amount of silica input from tributary sources. Therefore, BSi accumulation chronologies from sediment cores may be effective records of tributary inflow.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗

USGS2017

Upper thermal limits of growth in brook trout and their relationship to stress physiology

Despite the threat of climate change, the physiological mechanisms responsible for reduced performance at high temperatures remain unclear for most species. Elevated but sublethal temperatures may act via endocrine and cellular stress responses to limit performance in important life-history traits such as growth. Here, brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) subjected to chronically elevated or daily oscillating temperatures were monitored for growth and physiological stress responses. Growth rate decreased at temperatures above 16°C and was negative at 24°C, with an estimated upper limit for positive growth of 23.4°C. Plasma cortisol increased with temperature and was 12- and 18-fold higher at 22 and 24°C, respectively, than at 16°C, whereas plasma glucose was unaffected by temperature. Abundance of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) in the gill increased with temperature and was 11- and 56-fold higher at 22°C and 24°C, respectively, than at 16°C. There was no relationship between temperature and plasma Cl − , but there was a 53% and 80% decrease in gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity and abundance at 24°C in comparison with 16°C. Daily temperature oscillations of 4°C or 8°C (19–23°C or 17–25°C) were compared with 21°C controls. Growth rate decreased with temperature and was 43% and 35% lower by length and mass, respectively, in the 8°C daily oscillation treatment than in the controls. There was no effect of temperature oscillation on plasma cortisol or glucose levels. In contrast, gill HSP70 abundance increased with increasing daily oscillation and was 40- and 700-fold greater at 4°C and 8°C daily oscillation, respectively, than in the constant temperature controls. In individuals exposed to 17–25°C diel oscillations for 4 days and then allowed to recover at 21°C, gill HSP70 abundance was still elevated after 4 days recovery, but not after 10 days. Our results demonstrate that elevated temperatures induce cellular and endocrine stress responses and provide a possible mechanism by which growth is limited at elevated temperatures. Temperature limitations on growth may play a role in driving brook trout distributions in the wild.

Journal of Experimental Biology↗

USGS2012

Crop classification modelling using remote sensing and environmental data in the Greater Platte River Basin, USA

With an ever expanding population, potential climate variability and an increasing demand for agriculture-based alternative fuels, accurate agricultural land-cover classification for specific crops and their spatial distributions are becoming critical to researchers, policymakers, land managers and farmers. It is important to ensure the sustainability of these and other land uses and to quantify the net impacts that certain management practices have on the environment. Although other quality crop classification products are often available, temporal and spatial coverage gaps can create complications for certain regional or time-specific applications. Our goal was to develop a model capable of classifying major crops in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) for the post-2000 era to supplement existing crop classification products. This study identifies annual spatial distributions and area totals of corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops across the GPRB from 2000 to 2009. We developed a regression tree classification model based on 2.5 million training data points derived from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) in relation to a variety of other relevant input environmental variables. The primary input variables included the weekly 250 m US Geological Survey Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized differential vegetation index, average long-term growing season temperature, average long-term growing season precipitation and yearly start of growing season. An overall model accuracy rating of 78% was achieved for a test sample of roughly 215 000 independent points that were withheld from model training. Ten 250 m resolution annual crop classification maps were produced and evaluated for the GPRB region, one for each year from 2000 to 2009. In addition to the model accuracy assessment, our validation focused on spatial distribution and county-level crop area totals in comparison with the NASS CDL and county statistics from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture. The results showed that our model produced crop classification maps that closely resembled the spatial distribution trends observed in the NASS CDL and exhibited a close linear agreement with county-by-county crop area totals from USDA census data ( R 2 = 0.90).

Greater Platte River Basin↗

USGS2024

Geese migrating over the Pacific Ocean select altitudes coinciding with offshore wind turbine blades

Renewable energy facilities are a key part of mitigating climate change, but can pose threats to wild birds and bats, most often through collisions with infrastructure. Understanding collision risk and the factors affecting it can help minimize impacts on wild populations. For wind turbines, flight altitude is a major factor influencing collision risk, and altitude-selection analyses can evaluate when and why animals fly at certain altitudes under certain conditions. We used GPS tags to track Pacific Flyway geese (Pacific greater white-fronted goose, tule greater white-fronted goose and lesser snow goose) on transoceanic migrations between Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the contiguous United States, an area where offshore windfarm development is beginning. We evaluated how geographic and environmental covariates affected (1) whether birds were at rest on the water versus in flight (binomial model) and (2) altitude selection when in flight (similar to a step-selection framework). We then used a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of flying at each altitude under various conditions, considering both the fly/rest decision and altitude selection. In both spring and fall, geese showed strong selection for altitudes within the expected rotor-swept zone (20–200 m asl), with 56% of locations expected to be within the rotor-swept zone under mean daylight conditions and 28% at night. This indicates a high possibility that migrating geese may be at risk of collision when passing through windfarms. Although there was some variation across subspecies, geese were most likely to be within the rotor-swept zone with little wind or light tailwinds, low clouds, little to no precipitation and moderate to cool air temperatures. Geese were unlikely to be in the rotor-swept zone at night, when most individuals were at rest on the water. Synthesis and applications . These results could be used to inform windfarm management, including decisions to shut down turbines when collision risk is high. The altitude-selection framework we demonstrate could facilitate further study of other bird species to develop a holistic view of how windfarms in this area could affect the migratory bird community as a whole.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Drought resistance and resilience: The role of soil moisture–plant interactions and legacies in a dryland ecosystem

In many regions of the world, climate change is projected to reduce water availability through changes in the hydrological cycle, including more frequent and intense droughts, as well as seasonal shifts in precipitation. In water-limited ecosystems, such as drylands, lower soil water availability may exceed the adaptive capacity of many organisms, leading to cascading ecological effects during (concurrent effects) and after drought (legacy effects). The magnitude and duration of concurrent and legacy effects depends on drought intensity, duration and timing as well as the resistance and resilience of the ecosystem. Here, we investigated the effects of drought seasonality and plant community composition on two dominant perennial grasses, Achnatherum hymenoides (C 3 photosynthesis) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C 4 photosynthesis), in a dryland ecosystem. The experiment consisted of three precipitation treatments: control (ambient precipitation), cool-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation November–April) and warm-season drought (−66% ambient precipitation May–October), applied in two plant communities (perennial grasses with or without a large shrub, Ephedra viridis ) over a 3-year period. We examined the concurrent and legacy effects of seasonal drought on soil moisture, phenology and biomass. Drought treatments had strong concurrent and legacy effects on soil moisture, which impacted the phenology and biomass of the two grasses. Drought reduced growing season length by delaying green-up (cool-season drought) or advancing senescence (warm-season drought) and reduced biomass for both species. Biomass and phenology legacy effects from drought emerged in the second and third years of the experiment. While we observed differential sensitivity to drought legacies between the two grasses, we found limited evidence that shrub presence had interactive effects with the drought treatment. Synthesis . The results from this study highlight how abiotic and biotic legacies can develop and influence a community's resistance and resilience to subsequent droughts. When the frequency of repeated extreme events, such as recurring seasonal droughts, exceeds the capacity of organisms or ecosystems to recover (i.e. resilience), persistent drought legacies can reduce the resistance to subsequent drought events. Overall, these results highlight how drought legacies are a product of ecological resistance and resilience to past drought and can influence ecosystem vulnerability to future droughts.

Utah↗

USGS2004

Twentieth century demographic changes in cirio and cardón in Baja California, Mexico

Aim&ensp; Our purpose was to discern long-term large-scale patterns of survivorship and recruitment of two dominant, charismatic and useful desert plants, cirio [Fouquieriaceae; Fouquieria columnaris (Kell.) Kell. ex Curran] and cardón [Cactaceae; Pachycereus pringlei (S.Watson) Britton & Rose], and to evaluate the effects of physical and human factors. Location&ensp; The study included 77 sites distributed over c. 13,200 km 2 in the northern Vizcaíno Region of the Sonoran Desert, state of Baja California, México. Method&ensp; Censuses used identified individuals ( n = 3780 cirio and 2246 cardón) and were based on repeat photography. Time intervals between censuses ranged from 29 to 96 years, ending in 1996–2002. Earlier repetition (1963) of old photographs at 14 sites allowed analysis of temporal variation. The effect of elapsed time was modelled with Weibull functions for survivorship and linear functions for recruitment. To explain the residual variations, we tested categorical and continuous variables related to substrate, geomorphology, climate and geography. Human impacts were weighed with historical and quantitative analysis. Results&ensp; Elapsed time accounted for 45% of the variation of survivorship in cirio but only 35% in cardón. The fitted Weibull curves were used to estimate longevity: all-size cohorts of 1000 individuals would die out in 388 (cirio) and 723 years (cardón). Recruitment in cirio was linearly related to time ( r 2 = 0.71) and averaged < 0.003 year −1 but was less than mortality at 90% of the sites. For cardón, recruitment averaged > 0.005 year −1 , was linearly related to time ( r 2 = 0.66) and was less than mortality at only 33% of the sites. Vital rates were not strongly correlated between mid- and late-century but were mostly similar to the long-term regional rates. Removing the factor of elapsed time, the residual variations showed that survivorship was greater on sites protected from winds for cirio and was less on very coarse soils for cardón. Recruitment increased with latitude in cirio and was greater on southern exposures for both species. The residual variations were not clearly affected, at a regional scale, by other factors thought to be important, including elevation, distance to the Pacific Ocean, geology, slope gradient, soil stability, older vs. young alluvial soils, and soil Ca : Mg and Na : K ratios. Human impacts have been sporadic and heterogeneous but locally strong; our quantitative indices of accessibility did not show regionally significant effects. Blowdown by hurricanes is a sporadic cause of major mortality for cirio but not necessarily for cardón. Main conclusions&ensp; At our scales, effects of time outweigh those of substrate, and human impact was scant. Large patterns were pronounced: cirio experienced a prolonged, widespread decline in the 1900s, while cardón fluctuated in different directions and degree among local populations. Cirio was found to be inherently much shorter-lived than cardón. We also suggest that recruitment in cirio was low due to long periods with relatively dry winters that affected the entire region, while spatial heterogeneity of cardón recruitment seemed more related to the variation in summer rains.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2019

Phenological mismatch between season advancement and migration timing alters Arctic plant traits

1. Climate change is creating phenological mismatches between herbivores and their plant resources throughout the Arctic. While advancing growing seasons and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores has been shown to have consequences for herbivores and forage quality, developing mismatches are also likely to influence other traits of plants, such as above- and belowground biomass and the type of reproduction, that are often not investigated. 2. In coastal western Alaska, we conducted a three-year factorial experiment that simulated scenarios of phenological mismatch by manipulating the start of the growing season (ca. 3-weeks early and ambient) and grazing times (3-weeks early, typical, 3-weeks late, or no-grazing) of Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans), to examine how the timing of these events influence a primary goose forage species, Carex subspathacea. 3. After three years, an advanced growing season compared to a typical growing season increased stem heights, standing dead biomass, and the number of inflorescences. Early season grazing compared to typical season grazing reduced above- and belowground biomass, stem height, and the number of tillers; while late season grazing increased the number of inflorescences and standing dead biomass by year 3. Therefore, an advanced growing season and late grazing had comparable directional effects on most plant traits, but a 3-week delay in grazing had an impact on vegetation traits 3 to 5 times greater than a similar shift in advancement of spring conditions. In addition, changes in response to treatments for some variables, such as the number of inflorescences, were not measurable until the second year of the experiment, while other variables, such as root productivity and number of tillers, changed the direction of their responses to treatments over time. 4. Synthesis: Factors influencing the timing of migration have a larger influence on an important forage species than earlier springs in the breeding and rearing habitats of Pacific black brant. The phenological mismatch prediction for this site of earlier springs and later goose arrival will likely increase above- and belowground biomass and sexual reproduction of C. subspathacea. Implications for mismatch may be difficult to predict because some variables required successive years of mismatch to respond.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2022

Spring mudflows at Wrightwood, Southern California

The Wrightwood area in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California is known as a site of recurring mudflow activity. The community of Wrightwood is built on the coalesced fans of Sheep, Acorn and Heath Creeks, and the fan deposits are probably chiefly of mudflow origin. Historically, mudflows there have been observed in association with three climatic conditions: (1) short period of high-intensity rainfall during the summer dry season (thunderstorms); (2) periods of heavy rainfall during the October-March winter season, when most of the year's rain and snow fall; and (3) thaw of the winter snow pack. The mudflow activity associated with heavy rainfall has generally been of only a few hours or at most a few days duration. Mudflow activity associated with spring thaw has been of longer duration, as much as several weeks. At various times in the past, mudflows generated by all three conditions have inundated homes and highways in the Wrightwood area, which is now defended by a flood control levee system. During May and June, 1969 the rapid melting of a heavy snow pack resulted in a 40-day period of mudflow activity in Heath Creek. All flows originated in the steep upper reaches of Heath Creek, where steep ravines are incised in the toe of a large active landslide. Direct observation by the authors showed that flows formed when small masses of debris fell or slid from the surface of the landslide mass into the steep channel. Some of the masses were fluid enough to continue downstream without interruption; others stopped in the channel until remobilized by added melt water or the passage of a mudflow from a higher altitude. Both processes resulted in discrete ‘slugs’ which continued down the steep ravine, through an allu-viated canyon, to a fan where most of the debris was deposited. The activity may be described as a spring mudflow cycle, within which three stages were observed in a gradational sequence. A waxing stage began with sporadic short-duration mudflows, during which the lower alluviated canyon floor of Heath Creek was aggraded. A climactic stage of larger mudflows at more frequent intervals and of longer duration was characterized by the incision of a single, narrow, U-shaped channel in the alluviated canyon floor, and transportation of debris as much as 2 miles (3.2 km) from the source. A waning stage followed as meltwater supply decreased; short-duration flows backfilled the U-shaped channel and spilled over the banks, again aggrading the alluviated canyon floor.

California↗

USGS2016

Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plant-soil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools

Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. Here, we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on below-ground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plant – soil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the effects of woody plant encroachment are often influenced by rainfall and plant traits. Abiotic conditions at our study locations differed, particularly in terms of physicochemical properties related to precipitation. Marsh species composition, marsh above-ground biomass, and mangrove forest structural complexity also varied across these locations. Marshes in the driest location (Central Texas) had higher salinities and were dominated by low biomass succulent plants and lower soil carbon pools. Marshes in the wetter, less saline locations (Louisiana and North Florida) contained high biomass grasses and higher soil carbon pools. At all locations, above-ground biomass and above-ground carbon pools were higher in mangroves than marshes; however, below-ground soil carbon pools were only higher in mangroves than marshes in the driest location. In the wetter locations, the linkages between mangrove forest structure and soil properties were minimal or not significant. However, in the driest location, there was a significant increase in soil properties related to peat development and carbon storage with increased mangrove forest structural development. Synthesis : Our results indicate that the ecological implications of woody plant encroachment in tidal saline wetlands are dependent upon precipitation controls of plant – soil interactions. Although the above-ground effects of mangrove expansion are consistently large, below-ground influences of mangrove expansion appear to be greatest along low-rainfall coasts where salinities are high and marshes being replaced are carbon poor and dominated by succulent plants. Collectively, these findings complement those from terrestrial ecosystems and reinforce the importance of considering rainfall and plant – soil interactions within predictions of the ecological effects of woody plant encroachment.

Florida, Louisiana, Texas↗

USGS2014

Desert shrub responses to experimental modification of precipitation seasonality and soil depth: relationship to the two-layer model and ecohydrological niche

1. Ecohydrological niches are important for understanding plant community responses to climate shifts, particularly in dry lands. According to the two-layer hypothesis, selective use of deep-soil water increases growth or persistence of woody species during warm and dry summer periods and thereby contributes to their coexistence with shallow-rooted herbs in dry ecosystems. The resource-pool hypothesis further suggests that shallow-soil water benefits growth of all plants while deep-soil water primarily enhances physiological maintenance and survival of woody species. Few studies have directly tested these by manipulating deep-soil water availability and observing the long-term outcomes. 2. We predicted that factors promoting infiltration and storage of water in deep soils, specifically greater winter precipitation and soil depth, would enhance Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) in cold, winter-wet/summer-dry desert. Sagebrush responses to 20 years of winter irrigation were compared to summer- or no irrigation, on plots having relatively deep or shallow soils (2 m vs. 1 m depths). 3. Winter irrigation increased sagebrush cover, and crown and canopy volumes, but not density (individuals/plot) compared to summer or no irrigation, on deep-soil plots. On shallow-soil plots, winter irrigation surprisingly decreased shrub cover and size, and summer irrigation had no effect. Furthermore, multiple regression suggested that the variations in growth were related (i) firstly to water in shallow soils (0-0.2 m) and secondly to deeper soils (> 1 m deep) and (ii) more by springtime than by midsummer soil water. Water-use efficiency increased considerably on shallow soils without irrigation and was lowest with winter irrigation. 4. Synthesis . Sagebrush was more responsive to the seasonal timing of precipitation than to total annual precipitation. Factors that enhanced deep-water storage (deeper soils plus more winter precipitation) led to increases in Artemisia tridentata that were consistent with the two-layer hypothesis, and the contribution of shallow water to growth on these plots was consistent with the resource-pool hypothesis. However, shallow-soil water also had negative effects on sagebrush, suggesting an ecohydrological trade-off not considered in these or related theories. The interaction between precipitation timing and soil depth indicates that increased winter precipitation could lead to a mosaic of increases and decreases in A. tridentata across landscapes having variable soil depth.

Idaho↗

USGS2013

Biochar effect on maize yield and soil characteristics in five conservation farming sites in Zambia

Biochar addition to agricultural soils can improve soil fertility, with the added bonus of climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. Conservation farming (CF) is precision farming, often combining minimum tillage, crop rotation and residue retention. In the present farmer-led field trials carried out in Zambia, the use of a low dosage biochar combined with CF minimum tillage was tested as a way to increase crop yields. Using CF minimum tillage allows the biochar to be applied to the area where most of the plant roots are present and mirrors the fertilizer application in CF practices. The CF practice used comprised manually hoe-dug planting 10-L sized basins, where 10%–12% of the land was tilled. Pilot trials were performed with maize cob biochar and wood biochar on five soils with variable physical/chemical characteristics. At a dosage as low as 4 tons/ha, both biochars had a strong positive effect on maize yields in the coarse white aeolian sand of Kaoma, West-Zambia, with yields of 444% ± 114% ( p = 0.06) and 352% ± 139% ( p = 0.1) of the fertilized reference plots for maize and wood biochar, respectively. Thus for sandy acidic soils, CF and biochar amendment can be a promising combination for increasing harvest yield. Moderate but non-significant effects on yields were observed for maize and wood biochar in a red sandy clay loam ultisol east of Lusaka, central Zambia (University of Zambia, UNZA, site) with growth of 142% ± 42% ( p > 0.2) and 131% ± 62% ( p > 0.2) of fertilized reference plots, respectively. For three other soils (acidic and neutral clay loams and silty clay with variable cation exchange capacity, CEC), no significant effects on maize yields were observed ( p > 0.2). In laboratory trials, 5% of the two biochars were added to the soil samples in order to study the effect of the biochar on physical and chemical soil characteristics. The large increase in crop yield in Kaoma soil was tentatively explained by a combination of an increased base saturation (from <50% to 60%–100%) and cation exchange capacity (CEC; from 2–3 to 5–9 cmol/kg) and increased plant-available water (from 17% to 21%) as well as water vapor uptake (70 mg/g on maize cob biochar at 50% relative humidity).

Agronomy Journal↗

USGS2023

Spatiotemporal dynamics of duck harvest distributions in the Central and Mississippi flyways, 1960–2019

Geographical distributions of waterfowl exhibit annual variation in response to spatiotemporal variation in weather conditions, habitat availability, and other factors. Continuing changes in climate and land use could lead to persistent shifts of waterfowl distributions, potentially causing a mismatch with habitat conservation planning, wetland restoration efforts, and harvest management decisions informed by historical distributions. We used band recoveries and harvest records (i.e., hunter-harvested wings) from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Waterfowl Parts Collection Survey as indices of duck distribution in autumn and winter, and quantified intra-annual, interannual, and interspecific variation in their geographic distributions across 6 decades (1960–2019) for 15 duck species in the Central and Mississippi flyways in North America. Specifically, we tested for annual and decadal shifts in mean latitude and longitude of recoveries for each month (Oct–Jan) by species and taxonomic guild (i.e., dabbling, diving ducks). Overall, species varied in the extent, timing, and sometimes direction, of distributional change in recoveries. From 1960–2019, mean recovery locations for dabbling ducks shifted south 105–296 km in October and 27 km in November (wings only), whereas mean latitudes shifted north 144–234 km in December and 186–301 km in January. Mean recovery locations for diving ducks shifted north 162 km in October (wings only), 84–173 km in December, and 66–120 km in January, but shifted 99–512 km south in November. Shifts in longitude were less consistent between guilds and data types. Finally, distributional change rarely accelerated during recent decades, except for southward shifts of band recoveries of diving ducks in November and northward shifts of band and wing recoveries of dabbling ducks in January. Although anecdotal accounts of large-scale northward shifts in duck distributions are prolific in the land management and hunting communities, our data demonstrate more subtle shifts that vary considerably by species and month. Observed changes in recovery distributions could necessitate changes in timing of habitat management practices throughout the Central and Mississippi flyways and may result in fewer hunting and recreational opportunities for some species in southern states. Quantifying patterns of historical change is a necessary first step to understanding temporal and interspecific variation in waterfowl distributions, which will help with landscape-scale conservation and management efforts in the future and enable effective communication to core constituencies regarding ongoing changes and their implications for recreational engagement.

The Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2016

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail ( Anas acuta ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhnchos ) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2023

Migration timing and tributary use of spawning flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis)

Spawning phenology and associated migrations of fishes are often regulated by factors such as temperature and stream discharge, but flow regulation of mainstem rivers coupled with climate change might disrupt these cues and affect fitness. Flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis) persisting in heavily modified river networks are known to spawn in tributaries that might provide better spawning habitat than neighboring mainstem rivers subject to habitat degradation (e.g., embedded sediments, altered thermal regimes, and disconnected floodplains). Passive integrative transponder (PIT) tag data and radio telemetry were used to quantify the timing and duration of flannelmouth sucker tributary spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues in McElmo Creek, a tributary to the San Juan River in the American Southwest. We also tested the extent of the tributary migration and assessed mainstem movements prior to and following tributary migrations. Additionally, multi-year datasets of PIT detections from other tributaries in the Colorado River basin were used to quantify interannual and cross-site variation in the timing of flannelmouth sucker spawning migrations in relation to environmental cues. The arrival and residence times of fish spawning in McElmo Creek varied among years with earlier migration and a three-week increase in residence time in relatively wet years compared to drier years. Classification tree analysis suggested a combination of discharge and temperature determined arrival timing. Of fish PIT tagged in the fall, 56% tagged within 10 km of McElmo Creek spawned in the tributary the following spring, as did 60% of radio-tagged fish, with a decline in its use corresponding to increased distance of tagging location. A broader analysis of four tributaries in the Colorado River basin, including McElmo Creek, found photoperiod and temperature of tributary and mainstem rivers were the most important variables in determining migration timing, but tributary and mainstem discharge also aided in classification success. The largest tributary, the Little Colorado River, had more residential fish or fish that stayed for longer periods (median = 30 days), while McElmo Creek fish stayed an average of just 10 days in 2022. Our results generally suggest that higher discharge, across years or across sites, results in extended use of tributaries by flannelmouth suckers. Conservation actions that limit water extraction and maintain natural flow regimes in tributaries, while maintaining open connection with mainstem rivers may benefit migratory species including flannelmouth suckers.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2023

Interlaboratory study: Testing reproducibility of solid biofuels component identification using reflected light microscopy

Considering global market trends and concerns about climate change and sustainability, increased biomass use for energy is expected to continue. As more diverse materials are being utilized to manufacture solid biomass fuels, it is critical to implement quality assessment methods to analyze these fuels thoroughly. One such method is reflected light microscopy (RLM), which has the potential to complement and enhance current standard testing, leading to improving fuel quality assessment and, ultimately, preventing avoidable air pollution. An interlaboratory study (ILS) was conducted to test the reproducibility of biomass fuels component identification using a reflected light microscopy technique. The exercise was conducted on thirty photomicrographs showing biomass and various undesired components (like plastics or mineral matter), which were purposely added (by the ILS organizers) to contaminate wood pellets and charcoal-based grilling fuels. Forty-six participants had various levels of difficulty identifying the marked components, and as a result, the percentage of correct answers ranged from 52.2 to 94.4%. Among the most difficult components to distinguish were petroleum products and inorganic matter. Various reasons led to the misidentification, including insufficient morphological descriptions of the components provided to participants, ambiguities of the nomenclature, limitations of the analytical and exercise method, and insufficient experience of the participants. Overall, the results indicate that RLM has the potential to enhance the quality assessment of biomass fuels. However, they also demonstrate that the petrographic classification used in this exercise requires further refinement before it can be standardized. While a new simplified classification of solid biomass fuels components was created as an outcome of this study, future research is necessary to refine the nomenclature, develop a microscopic morphological description of the components, and verify the accuracy of component identification with a follow-up ILS.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2018

Findings and lessons learned from the assessment of the Mexico-United States transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers: The utility of social science in applied hydrologic research

Study Region This study region encompasses the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers which are shared between the states of Sonora (Mexico) and Arizona (US). Special regional considerations include a semi-arid climate, basin-fill aquifers with predominantly montane recharge areas, economic drivers in the mining, trade, and military sectors, groundwater-dependent cities with expanding cones of depression, interbasin groundwater transfers, ground- and surface-water contamination, and protected aquatic and riparian habitats that act as significant migration corridors for hundreds of species, including some that are threatened and endangered. Study Focus We focus on lessons learned from the hydrologic assessment of the Transboundary San Pedro and Santa Cruz aquifers. We conducted the work, in two phases: (1) laying the groundwork and (2) implementation. The “laying the groundwork” phase consisted of binational meetings with stakeholders and key actors (agencies and individuals), and the development of an understanding of the physical, institutional, historical, and socio-political context. This led to signing of the binational Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Program (TAAP) agreement in 2009 and detailed the process for cooperation and coordination in the assessment of shared aquifers. The implementation phase began with an agreement to proceed with the study of four “focus” aquifers (Santa Cruz, San Pedro, Mesilla (Conejos-Médanos in Mexico), and Hueco Bolson (Bolsón del Hueco in Mexico)) and development of associated technical teams. Though we do include a brief discussion of the lessons learned from the physical science portion of the study, the results have been described and published elsewhere. The bulk of the paper instead focuses on the findings and lessons learned from the integration of social-science perspectives into a largely physical-science based program, since there is a growing recognition of the need for this type of approach especially in the management and assessment of transboundary aquifers. New Hydrological Insights for the Region The Sonora-Arizona effort succeeded because both countries were adequately represented, and because of flexibility of skills and ability of teams comprising both university and government scientists. Teams included social and earth scientists. Including the social sciences was critical to research design and implementation, and to addressing the cultural, institutional, and socio-political contexts of transboundary aquifer assessment. Significant components of the continuing implementation phase include strategic planning, data compilation and analysis, cross-border integration of datasets, geophysical and geochemical surveys, and internal, peer, and stakeholder engagement.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2018

A remote sensing-based model of tidal marsh aboveground carbon stocks for the conterminous United States

Remote sensing based maps of tidal marshes, both of their extents and carbon stocks, have the potential to play a key role in conducting greenhouse gas inventories and implementing climate mitigation policies. Our objective was to generate a single remote sensing model of tidal marsh aboveground biomass and carbon that represents nationally diverse tidal marshes within the conterminous United States (CONUS). We developed the first calibration-grade, national-scale dataset of aboveground tidal marsh biomass, species composition, and aboveground plant carbon content (%C) from six CONUS regions: Cape Cod, MA, Chesapeake Bay, MD, Everglades, FL, Mississippi Delta, LA, San Francisco Bay, CA, and Puget Sound, WA. Using the random forest machine learning algorithm, we tested whether imagery from multiple sensors, Sentinel-1 C-band synthetic aperture radar, Landsat, and the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP), can improve model performance. The final model, driven by six Landsat vegetation indices and with the soil adjusted vegetation index as the most important (n = 409, RMSE = 310 g/m 2 , 10.3% normalized RMSE), successfully predicted biomass for a range of marsh plant functional types defined by height, leaf angle and growth form. Model results were improved by scaling field-measured biomass calibration data by NAIP-derived 30 m fraction green vegetation. With a mean plant carbon content of 44.1% (n = 1384, 95% C.I. = 43.99%–44.37%), we generated regional 30 m aboveground carbon density maps for estuarine and palustrine emergent tidal marshes as indicated by a modified NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program map. We applied a multivariate delta method to calculate uncertainties in regional carbon densities and stocks that considered standard error in map area, mean biomass and mean %C. Louisiana palustrine emergent marshes had the highest C density (2.67 ± 0.004 Mg/ha) of all regions, while San Francisco Bay brackish/saline marshes had the highest C density of all estuarine emergent marshes (2.03 ± 0.004 Mg/ha). Estimated C stocks for predefined jurisdictional areas ranged from 1023 ± 39 Mg in the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge in Washington to 507,761 ± 14,822 Mg in the Terrebonne and St. Mary Parishes in Louisiana. This modeling and data synthesis effort will allow for aboveground C stocks in tidal marshes to be included in the coastal wetland section of the U.S. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. With the increased availability of free post-processed satellite data, we provide a tractable means of modeling tidal marsh aboveground biomass and carbon at the global extent as well.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing↗