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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗
USGS2015

Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century

Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO 2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO 2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2020

Hydrologic properties of a highly permeable firn aquifer in the Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica

We present measurements of the density, hydraulic conductivity, and specific discharge of a widespread firn aquifer in Antarctica, within the Wilkins Ice Shelf. At the field site, the aquifer is 16.2 m thick, starting at 13.4 m from the snow surface and transitioning from water‐saturated firn to ice at 29.6 m. Hydraulic conductivity derived from slug tests show a geometric mean value of 1.4 ± 1.2 × 10 −4 m s −1 , equivalent to permeability of 2.6 ± 2.2 × 10 −11 m 2 . A borehole dilution test indicates an average specific discharge value of 1.9 ± 2.8 × 10 −6 m s −1 . Ground‐penetrating radar profiles and a groundwater flow model show the aquifer is draining laterally into a large nearby rift. Our findings indicate that the firn aquifer in the vicinity of the field site is likely not in a steady state and its presence likely contributed to past ice shelf instability.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. Here we use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916–2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead-time of one month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.

California↗
USGS2011

Role of back diffusion and biodegradation reactions in sustaining an MTBE/TBA plume in alluvial media

A methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) / tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) plume originating from a gasoline spill in late 1994 at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) persisted for over 15 years within 200 feet of the original spill source. The plume persisted until 2010 despite excavation of the tanks and piping within months after the spill and excavations of additional contaminated sediments from the source area in 2007 and 2008. The probable history of MTBE concentrations along the plume centerline at its source was estimated using a wide variety of available information, including published details about the original spill, excavations and monitoring by VAFB consultants, and our own research data. Two-dimensional reactive transport simulations of MTBE along the plume centerline were conducted for a 20-year period following the spill. These analyses suggest that MTBE diffused from the thin anaerobic aquifer into the adjacent anaerobic silts and transformed to TBA in both aquifer and silt layers. The model reproduces the observation that after 2004 TBA was the dominant solute, diffusing back out of the silts into the aquifer and sustaining plume concentrations much longer than would have been the case in the absence of such diffusive exchange. Simulations also suggest that aerobic degradation of MTBE or TBA at the water table in the overlying silt layer significantly affected concentrations of MTBE and TBA by limiting the chemical mass available for back diffusion to the aquifer.

California↗
USGS2002

Weathering reactions and hyporheic exchange controls on stream water chemistry in a glacial meltwater stream in the McMurdo Dry Valleys

In the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, dilute glacial meltwater flows down well‐established streambeds to closed basin lakes during the austral summer. During the 6–12 week flow season, a hyporheic zone develops in the saturated sediment adjacent to the streams. Longer Dry Valley streams have higher concentrations of major ions than shorter streams. The longitudinal increases in Si and K suggest that primary weathering contributes to the downstream solute increase. The hypothesis that weathering reactions in the hyporheic zone control stream chemistry was tested by modeling the downstream increase in solute concentration in von Guerard Stream in Taylor Valley. The average rates of solute supplied from these sources over the 5.2 km length of the stream were 6.1 × 10 −9 mol Si L −1 m −1 and 3.7 × 10 −9 mol K L −1 m −1 , yielding annual dissolved Si loads of 0.02–1.30 mol Si m −2 of watershed land surface. Silicate minerals in streambed sediment were analyzed to determine the representative surface area of minerals in the hyporheic zone subject to primary weathering. Two strategies were evaluated to compute sediment surface area normalized weathering rates. The first applies a best linear fit to synoptic data in order to calculate a constant downstream solute concentration gradient, dC / dx (constant weathering rate contribution, CRC method); the second uses a transient storage model to simulate dC / dx , representing both hyporheic exchange and chemical weathering (hydrologic exchange, HE method). Geometric surface area normalized dissolution rates of the silicate minerals in the stream ranged from 0.6 × 10 −12 mol Si m −2 s −1 to 4.5 × 10 −12 mol Si m −2 s −1 and 0.4 × 10 −12 mol K m −2 s −1 to 1.9 × 10 −12 mol K m −2 s −1 . These values are an order of magnitude lower than geometric surface area normalized weathering rates determined in laboratory studies and are an order of magnitude greater than geometric surface area normalized weathering rates determined in a warmer, wetter setting in temperate basins, despite the cold temperatures, lack of precipitation and lack of organic material. These results suggest that the continuous saturation and rapid flushing of the sediment due to hyporheic exchange facilitates weathering in Dry Valley streams.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2026

A method to implement natural flow regimes for regulated rivers

Rivers throughout the world have been dammed for flood control, irrigation, hydropower, and water storage for centuries. Dams service the economic and development needs of societies, but degrade the ecology of rivers. To conserve diminishing aquatic species and their habitats, methods are needed to help managers implement flow releases with timescales and patterns that are relevant to aquatic species and physical processes. We present a method to synchronize flow releases from dams with local hydrology, while ensuring constraints of flood control and water allocations are met. We demonstrate an optimization technique that scales flows of a proximal unregulated river and results in discharges that are synchronized with natural hydrologic patterns. Importantly, our method preserves operational and regulatory requirements such as water allocation volumes and flood control thresholds. This technique can be used at various timescales, and can incorporate many system-specific constraints. We selected the Trinity River, California as an example, and scale flows according to a proximal gage on the Salmon River in California. We evaluate our technique using an array of flow regime metrics from the literature, and our method produced hydrographs with greater flow variation throughout a larger portion of the water year than current management strategies. These hydrographs yielded flow metrics more similar to those from unimpaired flow patterns, including those measuring within and among year flow variability. The Real Time Management framework is a new tool that can be implemented to improve the health of rivers and the aquatic species that depend upon them.

California↗
USGS2018

Lake levels in a discontinuous permafrost landscape: Late Holocene variations inferred from sediment oxygen isotopes, Yukon Flats, Alaska

During recent decades, lake levels in the Yukon Flats region of interior Alaska have fluctuated dramatically. However, prior to recorded observations, no data are available to indicate if similar or more extreme variations occurred during past centuries and millennia. This study explores the history of Yukon Flats lake origins and lake levels for the past approximately 5,500 years from sediment analyses guided by previous work on permafrost extent, thermokarst, and modern isotope hydrology. Sediments dated by 210 Pb and AMS radiocarbon indicate stable chronologies following initial lake initiation. Subsequent lithology is autochthonous, and oxygen isotope ratios of endogenic carbonate reflect lake level change at multiple time scales. Sediment results indicate high lake levels between approximately 4000 and 1850 cal yr BP, which is interpreted to reflect wetter-than-modern conditions. Lower lake levels with short-lived high stands during the past approximately 800 years reflect generally arid conditions with brief wet intervals similar to the region’s moisture regime today. The millennial trend is one of increasing aridity and corresponds closely with fire reconstructions and regional paleoclimatic trends. We conclude that high-magnitude lake-level fluctuations and decadal scale trends occurred before the observational period and are persistent hydroclimatic features of the Yukon Flats region.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Occurrence of transformation products in the environment

Historically, most environmental occurrence research has focused on the parent compounds of organic contaminants. Research, however, has documented that the environmental transport of chemicals, such as pesticides and emerging contaminants, are substantially underestimated if transformation products are not considered. Although most examples described herein were drawn from research conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, such results are generally reflective of those found in other parts of the world. Results from a study of 51 streams in the Midwestern United States found that transformation products were seven of the ten most frequently detected pesticide compounds in late spring runoff (after application of pre-emergent herbicides), and nine of the ten most frequently detected compounds in fall season runoff (during and after harvest). In fact, 70% of the total herbicide concentration in water from the Mississippi River Basin was from transformation products. Results from a study of 86 municipal wells in Iowa found the frequency of detection increased from 17%, when pesticide parent compounds were considered, to 53%, when both parents and transformation products were considered. Transformation products were 12 of the 15 most frequently detected compounds for this groundwater study. Although studies on transformation products of synthetic organic compounds other than pesticides are not as common, wastewater treatment plant discharges have repeatedly been shown to contribute such transformation products to streams. In addition, select detergent transformation products have been commonly found in solid waste in the 1000's mg/kg. These findings and many others document that transformation products must be considered to fully assess the potential environmental occurrence of chemical contaminants and their transport and fate in various compartments of the hydrologic system. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry series↗
USGS2023

Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to support regional climate adaptation

An online climate vulnerability assessment dashboard was developed in 2021 through collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to support regional climate adaptation efforts. The dashboard included 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions. Users could then adjust relative weights of each metric to generate vulnerability scores. The metrics included in the dashboard were identified by FWS for their programs but have broad relevance, making the dashboard useful to a wide range of stakeholders. For this project we had two primary goals: (1) update the online dashboard to better communicate the variability that is inherent in climate change projections, and (2) develop a use case example using the dashboard to collaboratively assess vulnerability of a resource of concern at a workshop with resource managers. For objective 2, we selected prairie-obligate butterflies (POBs), which are dependent on, and often restricted to, native prairie habitat. The extent of native prairie has been greatly reduced over the last two centuries resulting in a patchwork of isolated and often small tracts of land. For many POBs, declines and extirpations have been observed in recent decades. Although the causes are not always known, hypotheses include overuse of management tools (e.g., too frequent burning or overgrazing), lack of dispersal opportunities, or extreme weather events. With more extreme weather events anticipated in the future along with other changes in climate, it is important to better understand the vulnerability of POBs to design effective adaptation strategies. While research on extreme weather, climate change, and adaptation is ongoing for some prairie-obligate species, this workshop sought to take a broad perspective using POBs as the focal taxonomic group across eight U.S. States in the Midwest During the workshop we discussed weather and climate-related influences on butterfly communities and assessed climate change vulnerability using the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). We produced maps that quantify the regional vulnerability of POBs across 360 watersheds for two future emissions scenarios. The information developed during the workshop could help in regional planning for climate change adaptation and to identify avenues for research and collaboration for POBs in the Midwest.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS1996

Groundwater inflow measurements in wetland systems

Our current understanding of wetlands is insufficient to assess the effects of past and future wetland loss. While knowledge of wetland hydrology is crucial, groundwater flows are often neglected or uncertain. In this paper, groundwater inflows were estimated in wetlands in southwestern Wisconsin using traditional Darcy's law calculations and three independent methods that included (1) stable isotope mass balances, (2) temperature profile modeling, and (3) numerical water balance modeling techniques. Inflows calculated using Darcy's law were lower than inflows estimated using the other approaches and ranged from 0.02 to 0.3 cm/d. Estimates obtained using the other methods generally were higher (0.1 to 1.1 cm/d) and showed similar spatial trends. An areal map of groundwater flux generated by the water balance model demonstrated that areas of both recharge and discharge exist in what is considered a regional discharge area. While each method has strengths and weaknesses, the use of more than one method can reduce uncertainty in the estimates.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2001

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly. In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) conceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s. The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton-derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters. Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment. The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions. Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world. In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5 questions that will guide coastal science in the early 21st century: (1) How do system-specific attributes constrain or amplify the responses of coastal ecosystems to nutrient enrichment? (2) How does nutrient enrichment interact with other stressors (toxic contaminants, fishing harvest, aquaculture, nonindigenous species, habitat loss, climate change, hydrologic manipulations) to change coastal ecosystems? (3) How are responses to multiple stressors linked? (4) How does human-induced change in the coastal zone impact the Earth system as habitat for humanity and other species? (5) How can a deeper scientific understanding of the coastal eutrophication problem be applied to develop tools for building strategies at ecosystem restoration or rehabilitation?

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2004

Interpretation of concentration‐discharge patterns in acid‐neutralizing capacity during storm flow in three small, forested catchments in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Episodic concentration‐discharge ( c‐Q ) plots are a popular tool for interpreting the hydrochemical response of small, forested catchments. Application of the method involves assuming an underlying conceptual model of runoff processes and comparing observed c‐Q looping patterns with those predicted by the model. We analyzed and interpreted c‐Q plots of acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) for 133 storms collected over a 7‐year period from three catchments in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. Because of their underlying lithologies the catchments represent a gradient in both hydrologic and geochemical behavior, ranging from a flashy, acidic, poorly buffered catchment to a moderate, neutral, well‐buffered catchment. The relative frequency of observed anticlockwise c‐Q loops in each catchment decreased along this gradient. Discriminant function analysis indicated that prestorm base flow ANC was an important predictor of loop rotation direction; however, the strength of the predictive relationship decreased along the same gradient. The trends were consistent with several equally plausible three‐component mixing models. Uncertainty regarding end‐member timing and relative volume and possible time variation in end‐member concentrations were key factors precluding identification of a unique model. The inconclusive results obtained on this large data set suggest that identification of underlying runoff mechanisms on the basis of a small number of c‐Q plots without additional supporting evidence is likely to be misleading.

Virginia↗
USGS2005

Nitrogen transport and transformations in a coastal plain watershed: Influence of geomorphology on flow paths and residence times

Nitrogen transport and groundwater‐surface water interactions were examined in a coastal plain watershed in the southeastern United States. Groundwater age dates, calculated using chlorofluorocarbon and tritium concentrations, along with concentrations of nitrogen species and other redox‐active constituents, were used to evaluate the fate and transport of nitrate. Nitrate is stable only in recently recharged (<10 years) water found in the upper few meters of saturated thickness in the upland portion of a surficial aquifer. Groundwater with a residence time between 10 and 30 years typically has low nitrate and elevated excess N 2 concentrations, indications that denitrification has reduced nitrate concentrations. Groundwater older than 30 years also has low nitrate concentrations but contains little or no excess N 2 , suggesting that this water did not contain elevated concentrations of nitrate along its flow path. Nitrate transport to streams varies between first‐ and third‐order streams. Hydrologic, lithologic, and chemical data suggest that the surficial aquifer is the dominant source of flow and nitrate to a first‐order stream. Iron‐reducing conditions occur in groundwater samples from the bed and banks of the first‐order stream, suggesting that direct groundwater discharge is denitrified prior to entering the stream. However, nitrogen from the surficial aquifer is transported directly to the stream via a tile drain that bypasses these reduced zones. In the alluvial valley of a third‐order stream the erosion of a confining layer creates a much thicker unconfined alluvial aquifer with larger zones of nitrate stability. Age dating and chemical information (SiO 2 , Na/K ratios) suggest that water in the alluvial aquifer is derived from short flow paths through the riparian zone and/or from adjacent streams during high‐discharge periods.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2022

Sensitivity of headwater streamflow to thawing permafrost and vegetation change in a warming Arctic

Climate change has the potential to impact headwater streams in the Arctic by thawing permafrost and subsequently altering hydrologic regimes and vegetation distribution, physiognomy and productivity. Permafrost thaw and increased subsurface flow have been inferred from the chemistry of large rivers, but there is limited empirical evidence of the impacts to headwater streams. Here we demonstrate how changing vegetation cover and soil thaw may alter headwater catchment hydrology using water budgets, stream discharge trends, and chemistry across a gradient of ground temperature in northwestern Alaska. Colder, tundra-dominated catchments shed precipitation through stream discharge, whereas in warmer catchments with greater forest extent, evapotranspiration and infiltration are substantial fluxes. Forest soils thaw earlier, remain thawed longer, and display seasonal water content declines, consistent with greater evapotranspiration and infiltration. Streambed infiltration and water chemistry indicate that even minor warming can lead to increased infiltration and subsurface flow. Additional warming, permafrost loss, and vegetation shifts in the Arctic will deliver water back to the atmosphere and to subsurface aquifers in many regions, with the potential to substantially reduce discharge in headwater streams, if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Decreasing discharge in headwater streamflow will have important implications for aquatic and riparian ecosystems.

Alaska↗
USGS2006

The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin, California

This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California, USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency, magnitude and shape: annual flood peak, annual flow trough, annual flood volume, time to flood peak, flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent on the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph, increasing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph falling limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control, water resource management, aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment supplies. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2019

Soil physical, hydraulic, and thermal properties in interior Alaska, USA: Implications for hydrologic response to thawing permafrost conditions

Boreal forest regions are a focal point for investigations of coupled water and biogeochemical fluxes in response to wildfire disturbances, climate warming, and permafrost thaw. Soil hydraulic, physical, and thermal property measurements for mineral soils in permafrost regions are limited, despite substantial influences on cryohydrogeologic model results. This work expands mineral soil property quantification in cold regions through soil characterization from the discontinuous permafrost zone of interior Alaska, USA. Values extend beyond the range of prior measurement magnitudes in analogous regions, highlighting the importance of this dataset. Rocky and silty upland soil landscape classifications and wildfire disturbance provided guiding frameworks for the sampling and analysis for potential implications for the hydrologic response to thawing permafrost. Bulk density, soil organic matter, soil–particle size distributions (sand, silt, and gravel fractions), and soil hydraulic properties of van Genuchten parameters alpha and N had moderate evidence of differences between silty and rocky classifications. Burned and unburned sites had only moderate evidence of differences for silt fraction. Field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) was more variable at burned sites compared to unburned sites, which corresponded to observations of greater rooting depths at burned sites and observations of root paths in soil cores for Kfs measurement. Soil thermal properties suggested that gravel content may reduce the accuracy of commonly used estimation methods for thermal conductivity . This work provides soil parameter constraints necessary for hypothesis testing and site-specific prediction with cryohydrogeologic models to examine controls on active layer and permafrost dynamics in upland boreal forests.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗