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At least 1,441 records · Page 80Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Abiotic and biotic controls of non-native perennial plant success in drylands

Drivers of non-native plant success in drylands are poorly understood. Here we identify functional differences between dryland native and non-native perennial plants and assess how biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors shape the success of the latter. On the basis of plant community and functional trait data from 98 sites across 25 countries, we report a total of 41 non-native plant species at 31 sites. Non-natives tend towards faster growth strategies than natives. Non-native plant richness is higher at sites with greater grazing pressure and under environmental conditions associated with higher soil fertility, decomposition and fungal richness—conditions that tend to occur in less arid regions—and lower where native plant and herbivore richness are greater. Non-native plant cover correlates positively with grazing pressure and negatively with native plant richness. Taken together, our results suggest that non-native plant success in drylands is facilitated when high grazing pressure coincides with elevated resource availability. Such context-dependence of non-native plant success and linkages with native plant and herbivore diversity highlight the need for managing grazing and conserving biodiversity across the world’s drylands.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Synergistic and singular effects of river discharge and lunar illumination on dam passage of upstream migrant yellow-phase American eels

Monitoring of dam passage can be useful for management and conservation assessments of American eel, particularly if passage counts can be examined over multiple years. During a 7-year study (2007–2013) of upstream migration of American eels within the lower Shenandoah River (Potomac River drainage), we counted and measured American eels at the Millville Dam eel pass, where annual study periods were determined by the timing of the eel pass installation during spring or summer and removal during fall. Daily American eel counts were analysed with negative binomial regression models, with and without a year (YR) effect, and with the following time-varying environmental covariates: river discharge of the Shenandoah River at Millville (RDM) and of the Potomac River at Point of Rocks, lunar illumination (LI), water temperature, and cloud cover. A total of 17 161 yellow-phase American eels used the pass during the seven annual periods, and length measurements were obtained from 9213 individuals (mean = 294 mm TL, s.e. = 0.49, range 183–594 mm). Data on passage counts of American eels supported an additive-effects model (YR + LI + RDM) where parameter estimates were positive for river discharge (β = 7.3, s.e. = 0.01) and negative for LI (β = −1.9, s.e. = 0.34). Interestingly, RDM and LI acted synergistically and singularly as correlates of upstream migration of American eels, but the highest daily counts and multiple-day passage events were associated with increased RDM. Annual installation of the eel pass during late spring or summer prevented an early spring assessment, a period with higher RDM relative to those values obtained during sampling periods. Because increases in river discharge are climatically controlled events, upstream migration events of American eels within the Potomac River drainage are likely linked to the influence of climate variability on flow regime.

Potomac River drainage, Shenandoah River↗
USGS2008

The Colorado Plateau III: integrating research and resources management for effective conservation

Roughly centered on the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States, the Colorado Plateau covers an area of 130,000 square miles. The relatively high semi-arid province boasts nine national parks, sixteen national monuments, many state parks, and dozens of wilderness areas. With the highest concentration of parklands in North America and unique geological and ecological features, the area is of particular interest to researchers. Derived from the Eighth Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau, this third volume in a series of research on the Colorado Plateau expands upon the previous two books. This volume focuses on the integration of science into resource management issues, summarizes what criteria make a successful collaborative effort, outlines land management concerns about drought, provides summaries of current biological, sociological, and archaeological research, and highlights current environmental issues in the Four Corner States of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah. With broad coverage that touches on topics as diverse as historical aspects of pronghorn antelope movement patterns through calculating watershed prescriptions to the role of wind-blown sand in preserving archaeological sites on the Colorado River, this volume stands as a compendium of cuttingedge management-oriented research on the Colorado Plateau. The book also introduces, for the first time, tools that can be used to assist with collaboration efforts among landowners and managers who wish to work together toward preserving resources on the Colorado Plateau and offers a wealth of insights into land management questions for many readers, especially people interested in the natural history, biology, anthropology, wildlife, and cultural management issues of the region.

Utah;Arizona;Colorado;New Mexico↗
USGS2023

Plants as vectors for environmental prion transmission

Prions cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases and exhibit remarkable durability, which engenders a wide array of potential exposure scenarios. In chronic wasting disease of deer, elk, moose, and reindeer and in scrapie of sheep and goats, prions are transmitted via environmental routes and the ability of plants to accumulate and subsequently transmit prions has been hypothesized, but not previously demonstrated. Here, we establish the ability of several crop and other plant species to take up prions via their roots and translocate them to above-ground tissues from various growth media including soils. We demonstrate that plants can accumulate prions in above-ground tissues to levels sufficient to transmit disease after oral ingestion by mice. Our results suggest plants may serve as vectors for prion transmission in the environment—a finding with implications for wildlife conservation, agriculture, and public health.

iScience↗
USGS2014

Environmental and physiological influences to isotopic ratios of N and protein status in a montane ungulate in winter

Winter severity can influence large herbivore populations through a reduction in maternal proteins available for reproduction. Nitrogen (N) isotopes in blood fractions can be used to track the use of body proteins in northern and montane ungulates. We studied 113 adult female caribou for 13 years throughout a series of severe winters that reduced population size and offspring mass. After these severe winters, offspring mass increased but the size of the population remained low. We devised a conceptual model for routing of isotopic N in blood in the context of the severe environmental conditions experienced by this population. We measured δ 15 N in three blood fractions and predicted the relative mobilization of dietary and body proteins. The δ 15 N of the body protein pool varied by 4‰ and 46% of the variance was associated with year. Annual variation in δ 15 N of body protein likely reflected the fall/early winter diet and winter locations, yet 15% of the isotopic variation in amino acid N was due to body proteins. Consistent isotopic differences among blood N pools indicated that animals tolerated fluxes in diet and body stores. Conservation of body protein in caribou is the result of active exchange among diet and body N pools. Adult females were robust to historically severe winter conditions and prioritized body condition and survival over early investment in offspring. For a vagile ungulate residing at low densities in a predator-rich environment, protein restrictions in winter may not be the primary limiting factor for reproduction.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Common ravens disrupt greater sage-grouse lekking behavior in the Great Basin, USA

Expansion of human enterprise has contributed to increased abundance and distribution of common ravens ( Corvus corax ; ravens) across sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems within western North America. Ravens are highly effective nest predators of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse), a species of high conservation concern. Sage-grouse population trends are estimated using count survey data of males attending traditional breeding grounds, known as leks. We sought to investigate associations of ravens to sage-grouse lek sites and document interactions between the sage-grouse and ravens as well as those between sage-grouse and other animals observed around leks. First, we used extensive raven point counts and sage-grouse lek observation data collected across Nevada and California, USA, from 2009–2019 to evaluate spatial associations between sage-grouse and ravens while accounting for other environmental covariates. We found that ravens were more likely to be observed closer to lek sites, especially as leks increased in size. Second, we used a subset of the lek dataset from 2006–2019 to describe behavioral changes of male sage-grouse in the presence of ravens and other predators. Our analysis indicated that ravens are attracted to lek sites and were associated with disrupting lekking sage-grouse by causing flushes or ceasing displaying behaviors. These results suggest that adult and yearling sage-grouse perceive ravens as a reason to alter breeding activity, and ravens may adversely influence their reproduction during the lekking stage. Additionally, standardized techniques to count sage-grouse on leks for population trend analyses could be biased low if raven presence during surveys is not accounted for.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2005

Inventory of the mosses, liverworts, and lichens of Olympic National Park, Washington- Species list

The identification of non-vascular cryptogam species (lichens, mosses, liverworts, and hornworts) is especially challenging because of their small size, their often microscopic or chemical distinguishing features, and their enormous diversity. Consequently, they are a poorly known component of Olympic National Park, despite their ecological and aesthetic importance. This project is the first attempt at a systematic, comprehensive survey of non-vascular cryptogams in the Park and presents the current species list with descriptions of the substrate and vascular vegetation type where they were observed. The authors strove to collect from as many park environments as feasible, and distributed collections along important environmental gradients in different regions of the park using vascular vegetation as an environmental indicator. They also collected opportunistically when interesting habitats or microhabitats were encountered. Finally, the authors updated the nomenclature in the Park’s previous collection of nonvascular plants. This study identified approximately 13,200 bryophyte and lichen species, adding approximately 425 new species to the Olympic National Park Herbarium. These data, combined with select literature reports and personal data from Martin and Karen Hutten, added more than 350 species to the previously documented Olympic Peninsula lichen and bryophyte list. The authors discuss the list in a local, regional, and global context of rarity, as well as cryptogam conservation and further work needed in Olympic National Park. The improved inventory of Olympic National Park cryptogams represented by this project enables Olympic National Park to protect populations of rare and sensitive species, assess the damage caused by illegal harvest, and contribute information to the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service Sensitive Species Programs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Characterizing residence patterns of North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern U.S. with a multistate open robust design model

Effective conservation of endangered North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) requires information about their spatio-temporal distribution. Understanding temporal distribution is particularly important, because a portion of the population migrates between high latitude summer feeding grounds off the northeastern U.S. and Canadian Maritimes coasts and lower latitude calving and wintering grounds off the southeastern U.S. coast (SEUS). Here, we modeled SEUS residence patterns using photo-identification data from coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida from seven winter seasons (2004/2005 – 2010/2011). We used multistate open robust design models to evaluate effects of reproductive status, demographic group, and environmental conditions on SEUS residence. Model estimates accounted for temporal variation and imperfect detection and provided probabilities of entering the SEUS, staying in the SEUS, and being sighted. We also derived estimates for residence time and seasonal abundance. We observed staggered arrival and departure patterns and demographic differences in residence patterns that are characteristic of a differential migration strategy. Calving females arrived earliest and, in most seasons, had mean residence periods more than twice as long as other demographic groups. Conversely, adult males arrived the latest, and had the shortest residence times. Within-season, biweekly detection was positively influenced by survey effort, and seasonal detection rate estimates ranged from 0.83 ± 0.08 for non-calving adult females to 0.98 ± 0.02 for calving females. Results provide insights into right whale behavior, biology, and temporal distribution in the SEUS and can be used to evaluate spatially- and temporally- dynamic management measures.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida↗
USGS2023

Stress gradients structure spatial variability in coastal tidal marsh plant composition and diversity in a major Pacific coast estuary

Understanding the drivers of variability in plant diversity from local to landscape spatial scales is a challenge in ecological systems. Environmental gradients exist at several spatial scales and can be nested hierarchically, influencing patterns of plant diversity in complex ways. As plant community dynamics influence ecosystem function, understanding the drivers of plant community variability across space is paramount for predicting potential shifts in ecosystem function from global change. Determining the scales at which stress gradients influence vegetation composition is crucial to inform management and restoration of tidal marshes for specific functions. Here, we analyzed vegetation community composition in 51 tidal marshes from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA. We used model-based compositional analysis and rank abundance curves to quantify environmental (elevation/tidal frame position, distance to channel, and channel salinity) and species trait (species form, wetland indicator status, and native status) influences on plant community variability at the marsh site and estuary scales. While environmental impacts on plant diversity varied by species and their relationships to each other, overall impacts increased in strength from marsh to estuary scales. Relative species abundance was important in structuring these tidal marsh communities even with the limited species pools dominated by a few species. Rank abundance curves revealed different community structures by region with higher species evenness at plots higher in the tidal frame and adjacent to freshwater channels. By identifying interactions (species–species, species–environment, and environment–trait) at multiple scales (local, landscape), we begin to understand how variability measurements could be interpreted for conservation and land management decisions.

California↗
USGS2011

CDFISH: an individual-based, spatially-explicit, landscape genetics simulator for aquatic species in complex riverscapes

We introduce Cost Distance FISHeries (CDFISH), a simulator of population genetics and connectivity in complex riverscapes for a wide range of environmental scenarios of aquatic organisms. The spatially-explicit program implements individual-based genetic modeling with Mendelian inheritance and k -allele mutation on a riverscape with resistance to movement. The program simulates individuals in subpopulations through time employing user-defined functions of individual migration, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal through straying on a continuous resistance surface.

Conservation Genetics Resources↗
USGS2025

Elk personality and anthropogenic food subsidy: Managing conflict and migration loss

The continued decline of long-distance ungulate migrations threatens to decouple important ecological processes that increase biodiversity and wildlife abundance. Past research has focused on preserving migration paths where habitat fragmentation and loss disrupt movement corridors. However, shifting residency-migration trade-offs are the stronger driver of migration loss in some populations. Suburban residential developments may provide ungulates with anthropogenic food sources and refuge from predators, which can increase population growth among short-distance migrants relative to long-distance migrants. This trend can increase wildlife vehicle collisions and other human–wildlife conflicts while simultaneously reducing hunting opportunities. Yet, individual animals vary in their tolerance of human disturbance. We investigated how interindividual variation relative to conflict and human habituation influences elk migration and space use on shared winter range. We used a clustering algorithm applied to GPS collar data to identify elk use of anthropogenic food resources in suburban habitat. Cluster locations identified all known anthropogenic subsidy locations during the study period. Elk that used suburban anthropogenic food sources also migrated 60% shorter distances between summer and winter ranges than elk with no known use of these food subsidies. Elk use of protected wintering grounds was spatially structured such that conflict-prone, short-distance migrants disproportionately used areas with more human activity. Clustering algorithms applied to GPS collar data may allow managers to identify foci of concentrated use that generates human–wildlife conflict, and where prion deposition and environmental contamination facilitate the spread of chronic wasting disease, particularly in suburban areas with anthropogenic food subsidies. The apparent spatial structuring of shared winter range according to the conflict potential and migration strategy of individual elk may also permit managers to assess relative recruitment among cryptic population segments using different migration strategies and facilitate targeted, adaptive management actions. These associations between conflict, human habituation, and migration shed light on the urbanization of wildlife species, inform efforts to manage human–wildlife conflict and disease spread, and emphasize that a multipronged approach beyond maintaining habitat corridors may be necessary to conserve long-distance migrations for species that can become human-habituated.

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Winter habitat associations of eastern spotted skunks in Virginia

Eastern spotted skunk ( Spilogale putorius ) populations have declined throughout much of their range in the eastern United States over recent decades. Declines have been attributed to habitat loss or change, increased competition with sympatric mesocarnivore species, or disease. To better understand the extant distribution of spotted skunks in the Appalachian Mountains of western Virginia, USA, we used a detection-non-detection sampling approach using baited camera traps to evaluate the influence of landscape-level environmental covariates on spotted skunk detection probability and site occupancy. We conducted camera trap surveys at 91 sites from January to May in 2014 and 2015. Spotted skunk occupancy was associated with young-aged forest stands at lower elevations and more mature forest stands at higher elevations. Both land cover types in this region can be characterized as having complex forest structure, providing cover that varies with stand age, species composition, elevation, and management regime. Our results provide insight into factors that influence spotted skunk spatial distribution and habitat selection, information that can be used to generate conservation assessments and inform management decisions.

Virginia↗
USGS2003

Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the western United States: Developments, perspectives, and prospects

This chapter explores the strengths and shortcomings of the major sources of data on Quaternary vegetation and climate change and discusses the use of models as a means to explore past and potential future environmental changes. The flora and major vegetation types of the western United States are present for several million years. Ongoing changes in atmospheric chemistry , climate, and human activities may lead to major vegetation changes over the coming decades to centuries. The combination of observations from the paleoenvironmental record, modern ecological studies, and modeling now permit assessments of the magnitude of potential future changes in the context of natural variability. They also provide opportunities for hypothesis testing and identification of the processes driving past changes in vegetation and climate. Understanding the dynamics of paleoenvironmental change can contribute to current conservation and natural resource management efforts and will help conservation and natural resource managers anticipate the potential rate, magnitude, and complexity of future vegetation change.

western United States↗
USGS2013

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

A simple, cost-effective emitter for controlled release of fish pheromones: development, testing, and application to management of the invasive sea lamprey

Semiochemicals that elicit species-specific attraction or repulsion have proven useful in the management of terrestrial pests and hold considerable promise for control of nuisance aquatic species, particularly invasive fishes. Because aquatic ecosystems are typically large and open, use of a semiochemical to control a spatially dispersed invader will require the development of a cost-effective emitter that is easy to produce, environmentally benign, inexpensive, and controls the release of the semiochemical without altering its structure. We examined the release properties of five polymers, and chose polyethylene glycol (PEG) as the best alternative. In a series of laboratory and field experiments, we examined the response of the invasive sea lamprey to PEG, and to a partial sex pheromone emitted from PEG that has proven effective as a trap bait to capture migrating sea lamprey prior to spawning. Our findings confirm that the sea lamprey does not behaviorally respond to PEG, and that the attractant response to the pheromone component was conserved when emitted from PEG. Further, we deployed the pheromone-PEG emitters as trap bait during typical control operations in three Great Lakes tributaries, observing similar improvements in trap performance when compared to a previous study using mechanically pumped liquid pheromone. Finally, the polymer emitters tended to dissolve unevenly in high flow conditions. We demonstrate that housing the emitter stabilizes the dissolution rate at high water velocity. We conclude the performance characteristics of PEG emitters to achieve controlled-release of a semiochemical are sufficient to recommend its use in conservation and management activities related to native and invasive aquatic organisms.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS1992

Geohydrology and water quality of stratified-drift aquifers in the lower Merrimack and coastal river basins, southeastern New Hampshire

Communities in the lower Merrimack River basin and coastal river basins of southeastern New Hampshire are experiencing increased demands for water because of a rapid increase in population. The population in 1987 was 225,495 and is expected to increase by 30 percent during the next decade. As of 1987, five towns used the stratified-drift aquifers for municipal supply and withdrew an estimated 6 million gallons per day. Four towns used the bedrock aquifer for municipal supply and withdrew an average of 1 .6 million gallons per day. Stratified-drift deposits cover 78 of the 327 square miles of the study area. These deposits are generally less than 10 square miles in areal extent, and their saturated thickness ranges front less than 20 feet to as much as 100 feet. Transmissivity exceeds 4,000 square feet per day in several locations. Stratified-drift aquifers in the eastern part are predominantly small ice-contact deposits surrounded by marine sediments or till of low hydraulic conductivity. Stratified-drift aquifers in the western part consist of ice-contact and proglacial deposits that are large in areal extent and are commonly in contact with surface-water bodies. Five stratified-drift aquifers, in the towns of Derry, Windham, Kingston, North Hampton, and Greenland, have the greatest potential to supply additional amounts of water. Potential yields and contributing areas of hypothetical supply wells were estimated for an aquifer in Windham near Cobbetts Pond and for an aquifer in Kingston along the Powwow River by use of a method analogous to superposition in conjunction with a numerical ground-waterflow model. The potential yield is estimated to be 0 .6 million gallons per day for the Windham-Cobbetts Pond aquifer and 4 .0 million gallons per day for the Kingston-Powwow River aquifer. Contributing recharge area for supply wells is estimated to be 1.6 square miles in the Windham-Cobbetts Pond aquifer and 4.9 square miles in the Kingston-Powwow River aquifer. Analyses of water samples from 30 wells indicate that the water quality in the basins studied is generally suitable for drinking and other domestic purposes. Concentrations of iron and manganese exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) and the New Hampshire Water Supply Engineering Bureau's secondary maximum contaminant levels for drinking water in 20 samples. With one exception, concentrations of volatile organic compounds at all wells sampled met New Hampshire Water Supply and Engineering Bureau's drinking-water standards. At one well, trichloroethylene was detected at a concentration of 5.7 micrograms per liter. Ground-water contamination has been detected at several hazardous-waste sites in the study area. Currently, 5 sites are on the USEPA's National Priority List of superfund sites, 10 sites are Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 sites, and 1 site is a Department of Defense hazardous-waste site of stratigraphic layers is a product of a material's density and the velocity at which sound travels through that material. The reflected signals return to the hydrophones at the water surface and are then filtered, amplified, and displayed graphically on the chart recorder to allow interpretation of aquifer stratigraphy and bedrock depths. Lithologic data from nearby wells and test holes were used as control points to check the interpretation of the reflection profiles. Test drilling was done at 66 locations (pls. 1-3) to determine sediment grain size, stratigraphy, depth to water table, depth to bedrock, and ground water quality. A 6-inch-diameter, hollow-stem auger was used for test drilling. Split-spoon samples of subsurface materials collected at specific depths were used to evaluate the grain-size characteristics and identify the stratigraphic sequence of materials comprising the aquifers. Thirty-eight test holes cased with a 2-inch-diameter polyvinyl-chloride (PVC) pipe and slotted screens were used to make ground-water-level measurements and collect ground-water-quality samples. Surface-water-discharge measurements were made at 16 sites during low flow when the surface water is primarily ground-water discharge. These low-flow measurements indicate quantities of ground water potentially available from aquifers. Hydraulic conductivities of aquifer materials were estimated from grain-size-distribution data from 61 samples of stratified drift. Transmissivity was estimated from well logs by assigning hydraulic conductivity to specific well-log intervals, multiplying by the saturated thickness of the interval, and summing the results. Additional transmissivity values were obtained from an analysis of specific capacity and aquifer-test data. Long-term aquifer yields and contributing areas to hypothetical supply wells were estimated by application of a method that is analogous to super position and incorporates a ground-water-flow model developed by McDonald and Harbaugh (1988). This method was applied to two aquifers judged to have the best potential for providing additional ground-water supplies. Samples of ground water from 26 test wells and 4 municipal wells were collected in March and August 1987 for analysis of common inorganic, organic, and volatile organic constituents. Methods for collecting and analyzing the samples are described by Fishman and Freidman (1989). The water-quality results from the well samples were used to characterize background water quality in the stratified-drift aquifers.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2019

Reaffirmed occurrence of two vulnerable caddisfly species of conservation concern

Maramec Spring is home to two Ozark endemic caddisfly Species of Conservation Concern (SOCC). The Missouri Glyphospsyche Caddisfly, Glyphospsyche missouri , (Critically Imperiled; State Rank-S1; Global Rank-G1) is known from Maramec Spring and the receiving spring branch and nowhere else in the world. Similarly, the Artesian Agapetus Caddisfly, Agapetus artesus , (Vulnerable; State Rank-S3 and Global Rank-G3) is known to occur only at Maramec Spring, Greer Spring, and a single reach of the Eleven Point River. Both species are considered representative fauna of Caves/Karst (Springs) habitat systems described in the Missouri State Wildlife Action Plan. However, little is known about distribution, life history, environmental requirements, or tolerance to environmental stress of either species. Further, prior to this study, it had been 14 years since G. missouri was last recorded to occur at Maramec Spring or the receiving spring branch, and 29 years since A. artesus was last documented to occur at Maramec Spring. On 15 November 2017, a team conducted reconnaissance of Maramec Spring Branch and of the Meramec River immediately downstream from the confluence of the spring branch to document occurrence and characterize aquatic habitat of immature life-stages (larvae and/or pupae) of the species, if found. A second visit was made on 10, January 2018.

Report↗
USGS2018

Drivers of variability in public‐supply water use across the contiguous United States

This study explores the relationship between municipal water use and an array of climate, economic, behavioral, and policy variables across the contiguous U.S. The relationship is explored using Bayesian‐hierarchical regression models for over 2,500 counties, 18 covariates, and three higher‐level grouping variables. Additionally, a second analysis is included for 83 cities where water price and water conservation policy information is available. A hierarchical model using the nine climate regions (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as the higher‐level groups results in the best out‐of‐sample performance, as estimated by the Widely Available Information Criterion, compared to counties grouped by urban continuum classification or primary economic activity. The regression coefficients indicate that the controls on water use are not uniform across the nation: e.g., counties in the Northeast and Northwest climate regions are more sensitive to social variables, whereas counties in the Southwest and East North Central climate regions are more sensitive to environmental variables. For the national city‐level model, it appears that arid cities with a high cost of living and relatively low water bills sell more water per customer, but as with the county‐level model, the effect of each variable depends heavily on where a city is located.

Water Resources Research↗