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USGS2026

Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover

Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one year after fire, is typically the most susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows, the hazard evolves in time and space as the burned area recovers. The recovery trajectory a given burned area will take depends on local climate and weather and can be difficult to predict. Some burned areas recover quickly, whereas others experience debris flows for multiple years after fire. As a result, extending our ability to update debris-flow likelihood estimates and rainfall thresholds based on observed recovery of the burned area would be beneficial. We present a method for multi-year runoff-generated debris-flow hazard assessment that leverages the USGS “M1” debris-flow likelihood model and integrates updated, satellite-derived, normalized burn ratio data to estimate vegetation recovery. We predict recovery-aware rainfall thresholds and validate them against a multi-year debris-flow hazard prediction and could be adapted for use with other debris-flow models that incorporate burn severity data.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Washing↗
USGS2024

Groundwater quality near the Placerita Oil Field, California, 2018

Groundwater-quality data and potential fluid-migration pathways near the Placerita Oil Field in Los Angeles County, California, were examined by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine if oil-field fluids (water and gas from oil-producing and non-producing zones) have mixed with groundwater resources. Six of the 13 new groundwater samples collected for this study contained petroleum hydrocarbons, thermogenic gas, inorganic chemical signatures, and (or) isotopic values consistent with potential mixing with fluids from hydrocarbon-bearing formations. For historical groundwater samples, benzene was the most detected petroleum hydrocarbon. The historical groundwater samples with a benzene concentration greater than 0.5 micrograms per liter were from environmental monitoring wells at industrial or commercial facilities unrelated to oil and gas development that, in many cases, have identified soil or groundwater contamination and were not typically analyzed for other constituents that could provide additional lines of evidence for potential mixing with oil-field fluids. Methane was not detected in any of the 12 historical samples with a reported measurement. Reviewing historical data revealed factors that could potentially adversely affect groundwater quality in the study area. These factors include modified hydraulic gradients caused by large volumes of water extracted from the main production area and reinjected downgradient into nonproducing zones, well-barrier failures in wells constructed in the northern part of the oil field before the 1970s, well-barrier failures in produced-water disposal wells downgradient from the main production area, and naturally occurring hydrocarbons at shallow intervals. The groundwater samples most geochemically similar to samples from hydrocarbon-bearing formations were in areas where hydrocarbons are naturally occurring at shallow intervals and where oil development is at shallow depths. Additional data for hydraulic heads, water quality, and formation temperatures at multiple depths in areas with large injection volumes and well-integrity issues are needed to evaluate whether those factors have contributed to mixing between fluids from oil-producing or injection formations and groundwater resources.

California↗
USGS1976

The water quality of Livingston Reservoir on the Trinity River, Southeastern Texas

The concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate in Livingstone Reservoir on the Trinity River in southeastern Texas usually average less than 250 mg/1 (milligrams per litre), 40 mg/1, and 50 mg/1, respectively. The water is usually hard or moderately hard (61 to 180 mg/1 as calcium carbonate). The concentrations of principal dissolved constituents in the reservoir are usually maximum during summer and fall when evaporation is high and inflow is low. Thermal stratification of the reservoir usually begins in March and persists until September or October. Neither the seasonal variation of dissolved constituents in inflow to the reservoir nor thermal stratification has resulted in significant stratification of the principal dissolved constituents. However, thermal stratification has resulted in significant seasonal and areal variations of dissolved oxygen, which results in higher concentration of dissolved iron, dissolved manganese, total phosphorus, and total inorganic nitrogen.

Texas↗
USGS2025

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic energy storage capacity—Natural gas storage in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs

The need for energy storage, particularly underground, where capacity and duration may far exceed battery storage technologies, is especially relevant given the increasing demands for reliable power alongside the development of intermittent renewable electricity sources. Geologic energy storage facilities already exist, and expanded use would enable storing gases such as methane and hydrogen. In 2018, a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report, “Future Directions for the U.S. Geological Survey's Energy Resources Program,” recommended that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) prioritize assessing underground energy storage in geologic formations in the United States. The U.S. Geological Survey has since developed a methodology for assessing natural gas storage capacities in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs on a national scale. The methodology introduced in this report prescribes three approaches for calculating gas storage capacity. This methodology relies on the availability of input data, including cumulative hydrocarbon production records, reservoir petrophysical properties, and reservoir pressure data. Assessment inputs can be obtained from public, State-level databases and propriety national-scale databases, although the use of analogs could be warranted for estimating input parameters. Probabilistic assessment results are aggregated to play, petroleum province, regional, and national scales. The steps defined in this report are demonstrated on the Michigan Basin Province, which includes the Mississippian Sandstone Gas Play and the Clinton Structural Play. This methodology could be used to systematically and consistently assess hydrocarbon plays and provinces for natural gas storage capacity across the United States.

Michigan↗
USGS2026

Uncertainty quantification of geologic energy storage in depleted gas reservoirs using material balance equations embedded in a hierarchical errors-in-variables model

The storage potential for gas in geologic settings, such as depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and solution-mined salt caverns, is becoming salient to future energy infrastructure planning. Technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage, carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery, and natural gas and hydrogen storage help meet growing energy demands, reduce carbon emissions to meet climate goals, and provide energy security amid geopolitical uncertainties. Therefore, estimates of underground gas storage capacity could be useful for efficiently navigating the energy transitions. Material balance is a fundamental method in reservoir engineering for estimating original gas in place and potential storage capacity at the scale necessary for national assessments of subsurface pore space resources. However, the deterministic method cannot accommodate multiple data sources or quantify uncertainty in predictions. In this study, a method that embeds material balance equations within a hierarchical errors-in-variables model is proposed which allows the estimation of the distributions of reservoir properties needed for assessments. Uncertainties associated with these reservoir properties have traditionally been expert-elicited, whereas the uncertainty estimates from the proposed models are data-driven. Capacity and uncertainty estimates can be used in a probabilistic resource assessment, supplementing information traditionally used by assessors or even replacing this expert elicitation step when data are unavailable. Various regression models are compared in a case study of the Michigan Basin, a large contributor to the United States’ current natural gas storage capacity. In particular, errors-in-variables models help ameliorate regression dilution and can quantify uncertainty in predictions of pressure in addition to storage capacity. Overfitting is addressed by quantifying generalization error and model averaging in simple and stratified cross-validation against reported working gas capacity, representing the varying quality and quantity of available data. Incorporating a statistical framework into existing numerical methods in reservoir engineering can improve the quality of estimation, and in particular, this method brings rigor to uncertainty quantification as part of a larger effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to assess domestic energy gas storage resources in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs.

Mathematical Geosciences↗
USGS2025

Rapid emplacement of the Keaiwa Lava Flow of 1823 from the Great Crack in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kilauea volcano

The Keaīwa Lava Flow of 1823 in the Southwest Rift Zone of Kīlauea volcano is unusual for its expansive pāhoehoe sheet flow morphology and lack of constructive vent topography, despite having a similar tholeiitic basalt composition to other lavas erupted from Kīlauea. This lava flow issued from a ∼10-km-long continuous fissure now known as the Great Crack, and has an unusually thin sheet flow morphology with margin thicknesses of ∼15–110 cm (average of 42 cm). Based on field observations of the lava flow at its fissure vent (e.g., drain-back features), we propose that the Great Crack formed, or at least significantly widened, just prior to and syn-eruptively with this 1823 eruption. The absence of pyroclastic cones or spatter ramparts indicates that the eruption consisted of a rapid outpouring of relatively degassed lava as the fissure unzipped. The rapidly moving lava flow overtopped pre-existing tumuli and scoria cones (e.g., Lava Plastered Cones) up to ∼10 m tall. Glass and whole-rock chemistry yield homogeneous compositions for the lavas erupted from the Great Crack, with glass compositions of 6.40 ± 0.10 wt% MgO and whole-rock compositions of 7.39 ± 0.07 wt% MgO. Lava pads erupted from a short western fissure system are richer in mafic minerals (e.g., olivine and clinopyroxene), and show slightly more MgO-rich whole-rock compositions (7.79 ± 0.05 wt%). MgO-in-glass thermometry on juvenile spatter yield eruption temperatures of 1153 ± 13°C that are typical of Kīlauea lavas. Thus, the extensive sheet-like lava flow morphology is not a direct consequence of unusual magmatic or rheological conditions (i.e., low viscosity). Instead, the flow morphology is associated with high effusion rates caused by sudden drainage of uprift magma as it erupted from the Great Crack. Lava flow modeling on a 2-m-resolution digital elevation model indicates that a minimum bulk effusion rate of ∼5800 m 3 /s (∼3500 m 3 /s dense rock equivalent) and a minimum flow velocity of ∼11 m/s are required for the lava flow to overcome the topography of the Lava Plastered Cones. This effusion rate is among the highest inferred for eruptions in Hawaiʻi and around the world. This study highlights a less frequent eruption style at Hawaiian volcanoes characterized by a sudden outpouring of lava from an unusual fissure system. Local eyewitness accounts indicate that the 1823 eruption was preceded by seismicity. Given the complex magmatic-volcanic-tectonic relations across Kīlauea, we speculate that the south flank could have slipped over one or more events that ultimately triggered unzipping of the Great Crack and passive release of briefly stored uprift magma. An eruption similar to 1823 at Kīlauea or Mauna Loa, with an eruptive timeframe that could be as short as an hour, with high effusion rates and rapid flow front velocities, would not easily allow for a timely response.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Spatially referenced watershed models for the binational Red–Assiniboine River Basin: Bayesian vs frequentist comparison

Excess nutrient loading remains a leading cause of declining water quality in lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters worldwide, with global economic costs of US$200 billion – US$2 trillion annually from impacts on fisheries, tourism, freshwater resources, and water treatment. Our study focuses on total phosphorus (TP) in Lake Winnipeg and its binational Red-Assiniboine River Basin, where nutrient inputs have degraded water quality and increased cyanobacterial blooms. These changes pose ecological, public health, and economic risks. We applied a spatially referenced watershed model with a hybrid statistical-mechanistic structure partitioning annual nutrient loads into land-use export, land-to-water delivery, and in-reservoir decay. Bayesian and traditional frequentist model calibrations were compared. In the frequentist model, coefficients for agricultural inputs, forests /wetlands, stream channels, precipitation, and reservoir losses were statistically significant, whereas coefficient for wastewater was not. In contrast, all variables were successfully calibrated using the Bayesian approach. Model results delineate TP-export hotspots across the basin, showing that 54–62% of TP originates from the U.S., with agricultural sources ranging 62–72%—highlighting the importance of agriculture-focused Best Management Practices. Given the global relevance of nutrient-driven water-quality challenges, our results highlight Bayesian calibration for robust risk assessment and adaptive nutrient management.

Red–Assiniboine River Basin↗
USGS2025

Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality

As demand for advanced technologies rises, mineral commodities will increase in geopolitical importance. To assess risks associated with mineral commodity supply chain disruptions, governmental agencies and others have developed "criticality" assessments, with criticality described using the economic impact and probability of supply chain disruptions. In previous work, subjective supply risk indicators were developed to approximate this probability, typically combining several factors such as supply diversity and political stability of trading partners, where indicator weightings can substantially impact results. This work explicitly quantifies trade barrier probability using an ensemble of several machine learning classifiers, with probability estimates informed by exogenous variables such as prior trade barrier implementation and global export dominance. Major differences in the high-probability countries and commodities are observed across models, but the ensemble method highlights Indonesia, China, Tanzania, and the United States as particularly high risk. This approach enables a direct, quantitative, objective approach to assessing trade barrier probability, enhancing risk identification and prioritization for policymakers.

SSRN↗
USGS2026

Quantitative mineral resource assessment of lithium pegmatite deposits in the southern Appalachian orogen

The first quantitative mineral resource assessment for undiscovered lithium pegmatite deposits in the southern Appalachian region of the United States was conducted. Permissive tracts for lithium pegmatite deposits were delineated by integrating lithological, tectonic, geochemical, geophysical and mineral occurrence data. Lithium pegmatite prospectivity of the tracts was ranked with simplified mappable criteria, including proximity to Paleozoic felsic intrusions and major lithotectonic structures, stream sediment geochemical anomalies, and pegmatite occurrence data. The geospatial data and permissive tracts were used to estimate the number of undiscovered lithium pegmatite deposits. These estimates were integrated into probabilistic simulations along with a new global lithium pegmatite grade and tonnage dataset to quantify potential contained undiscovered lithium resources. An economic filter was applied to convert the probabilistic estimates of contained lithium into recoverable material. The identified lithium pegmatite resources for the Carolina Lithium and Kings Mountain deposits, North Carolina, contain 1589 thousand tons (kt) of Li 2 O. The median contained undiscovered resource for the southern Appalachian orogen was estimated to be 2240 kt Li 2 O. At 90% confidence, the region contains at least 130 kt Li 2 O, and 10,700 kt at 10% confidence. After applying economic filters, the median recoverable contained resource was 1430 kt Li 2 O, corresponding to approximately 201 years of current lithium imports for consumption in the United States. North and South Carolina are likely to contain most of these resources. Coarse data resolution and intra-state variations in the geological data contribute to uncertainty of undiscovered lithium pegmatite resources. Continued efforts to harmonize disparate geospatial datasets with updated or new information can improve the accuracy and precision of estimated undiscovered lithium pegmatite resources in the study area and at broader scales.

Alabama, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South ↗
USGS2024

New methodology for assessing underground natural gas storage resources – Example from Michigan Basin, United States

Energy consumption in the United States (U.S.) and across the world is shifting away from traditional fossil fuels like coal and oil, and towards natural gas and renewable sources, including hydrogen. Because gas demand is typically greatest during cold seasons and renewable sources sometimes produce variable supplies, it is important to store energy for use when demand exceeds supply. Whereas batteries and tanks typically store energy above ground, geologic (underground) storage may be able to retain much greater quantities of energy over much longer durations (e.g., Matos et al. 2019; Buursink et al. 2023). Consequently, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing a methodology to locate new geologic energy storage sites with an initial focus on depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs followed by estimates of associated pore space or gas storage capacity. Depleted hydrocarbon fields in Michigan Basin in the U.S. already host large quantities of injected natural gas (about 681 billion cubic feet of seasonal gas capacity in 42 gas storage facilities; U.S. Energy Information Administration 2024). Therefore, we used this basin as an example to assess potential new storage resources alongside existing storage capacity and carbon dioxide sequestration resources (e.g., Katz and Coats 1968; Haagsma et al. 2020). In Michigan Basin gas storage is taking place in reservoirs within several key hydrocarbon producing formations with different lithologies, including the informal Stray sandstone of the Michigan Formation and the pinnacle reefs of the Niagara Group (Gautier et al. 1995; Swezey et al. 2015). The assessment methodology introduced here consists of two steps relying on both well information and reservoir data.

Michigan↗
USGS1999

The mineral economy of Brazil--Economia mineral do Brasil

This study depicts the Brazilian government structure, mineral legislation and investment policy, taxation, foreign investment policies, environmental laws and regulations, and conditions in which the mineral industry operates. The report underlines Brazil's large and diversified mineral endowment. A total of 37 mineral commodities, or groups of closely related commodities, is discussed. An overview of the geologic setting of the major mineral deposits is presented. This report is presented in English and Portuguese in pdf format.

Data Series↗
USGS1988

Geology of an area near Brentwood, Williamson County, Tennessee

The lithology and geologic structure of an area near Brentwood, Williamson County, Tennessee, were studied to define the potential aquifers and confining units of the ground-water flow system. Four formations were identified. They are, in descending order, the Bigby-Cannon Limestone, the Hermitage Formation, the Carters Limestone, and the Lebanon Limestone. The Bigby-Cannon Limestone and the Carters Limestone are potential aquifers. The Hermitage Formation and the Lebanon Limestone are confining units. The Bigby-Cannon Limestone and the Hermitage Formation have been affected by recent erosion. Any variation of the Carters Limestone is controlled by pre-Carters erosion of the top of the Lebanon Limestone. The thickness of the Carters Limestone ranges from 65 to 79 feet. Structurally, the area reflects the regional northwest dip. A small scale anti-cline-syncline pair also is evident. This feature is not a result of erosion and also occurs in the T-3 bentonite bed in the Carters Limestone.

Tennessee↗
USGS2026

Magmatic source of the opening phase of Kīlauea’s 2018 Lower East Rift Zone eruption

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano in its Lower East Rift Zone began with the discharge of evolved high-Ti basalt as weak lava fountains and short, slow-moving lava flows. The lavas were quickly geochemically recognized as being derived from magmas stored within the rift zone and remobilized by a new intrusion, a sequence that is common at Kīlauea. This initial phase of the 2018 eruption, referred to as phase 1a, lasted for 6 days and was followed by extrusion of mixed magma after a 3-day pause. Even though remobilization of older rift zone magmas is common within Kīlauea’s rift zones, it is difficult to determine which past intrusion(s) may have initially emplaced those stored magmas. This difficulty stems from the tendency for Kīlauea magmas to follow very similar differentiation paths without significant variations in major, minor, or even trace element chemistry. We investigate possible magma sources for the lavas erupted during phase 1a of the 2018 eruption using whole-rock, mineral, and glass major and trace element compositions from historical East Rift Zone eruptions with adjacent fissures. We consider two primary hypotheses for the phase 1a source: magmas associated with the 1955 Lower East Rift Zone eruption or the nine eruptions in the Middle and Upper East Rift Zone during the 1960s. Our results suggest that magma associated with the earliest phases of Kīlauea’s 1955 eruption was the most likely source of the 2018 phase 1a remobilized magma. We determine volatile saturation pressures from melt inclusion chemistry and find similar storage depths for the 2018 phase 1a and early 1955 magmas. The phase 1a and early 1955 lavas are nearly indistinguishable in all of the compositional criteria considered, implying that the leftover 1955 magma body barely cooled and differentiated in the 63 years between eruptions (cooling rates of ~0.1 °C/year). This study sheds light on the potential for protracted storage of eruptible magmas in rift zones at Kīlauea, and highlights some of the challenges and solutions to identifying genetic relationships between magmas at Kīlauea.

Hawaii↗
USGS1976

Detailed investigation of a coastal plain-Piedmont fault contact in northeastern Virginia

A trench across the Dumfries fault of the Stafford fault zone near Stafford, Virginia (see Mixon and Newell, 1976) exposed a high-angle reverse fault juxtaposing Paleozoic Quantico Slate and Cretaceous Potomac Group rocks. A system of subsidiary reverse faults and small scale normal faults disrupt the Coastal Plain strata adjacent to the main fault. Cross-cutting relations and stratigraphic details indicate that the subsidiary faults in the Cretaceous rocks document a history of episodic deformation, in part active during accumulation of the Coastal Plain strata. Slickensides and stereo net analysis of theorientation of subsidiary reverse faults, normal faults, and bedding indicate that, through time, faulting consistently included right lateral separation.

Virginia↗
USGS1990

Floods of February 1989 in Tennessee

Rainfall amounts of over 5 inches the night of February 13 and the morning of February 14, 1989, caused flooding in areas of Middle and West Tennessee. The towns of Lebanon in Middle Tennessee and Obion in West Tennessee were most severely affected. Most of the business district in Lebanon and many residential areas in Obion were flooded. Recurrence intervals for 24-hour rainfall totals were as high as 25 years at some sites but most peak discharges had recurrence intervals of less than 10 years. Rainfall amounts for the period February 13-20, 1989, peak stages and discharges for this flood, the peak of record, and a list of discharge measurements made during the flood are documented in this report.

Tennessee↗
USGS2026

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 6

This report, volume 6 in the “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series, showcases the migrations of 23 ungulate herds in the Western United States. The report series is produced by the Corridor Mapping Team (CMT). Led by the U.S. Geological Survey, the CMT is a collaboration among 11 State agencies, as well as regional and Federal partners, and an expanding number of Tribal wildlife agencies. The CMT was initiated in response to the U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362, which was signed in 2018 and provided Federal support to expand existing research efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations throughout the Western United States. Including this volume, the report series has detailed the migrations of 237 unique ungulate herds throughout the Western United States and continues to serve as a valuable resource to guide local and regional management, policy, and on-the-ground work necessary to maintain intact and functional ungulate migrations. This report highlights several guiding principles of the CMT that facilitate collaboration among the diverse set of partners and contribute to the program’s continued successes. Notably, raw global positioning system data are not shared among participating agencies and the U.S. Geological Survey, delineating migration corridors and seasonal ranges relies on empirical data, the CMT provides flexible approaches to participating State and Tribal partners, and regular CMT meetings create a framework for open communication among agency partners that supports transboundary mapping of migrations. The 237 ungulate migrations that have been included in the report series are an expanding inventory, which can help maintain ungulate migrations in perpetuity.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2023

An inventory of three-dimensional geologic models—U.S. Geological Survey, 2004–22

A database of spatial footprints and characteristics of three-dimensional geological models that were constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey between 2004 and 2022 was compiled as part of ongoing development of subsurface geologic information by the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program. This initial inventory resulted in the compilation of 38 three-dimensional geological models that vary widely in their spatial extent, the type and purpose of the model, the number of subsurface units characterized by the model, and the software platforms used to create the model. This Data Report provides the scientific rationale and explanation of the contents of a companion USGS digital data release of spatial data and attributes associated with each three-dimensional model.

Data Report↗
USGS2024

A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods

Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric bulking and increased frictional resistance. Here, we use this flow amplification to develop a metric ( Q* ) to separate debris flows from floods based on the ratio of observed peak discharge to the theoretical maximum water discharge from rainfall runoff. We compile 642 observations of floods and debris flows and demonstrate that Q* distinguishes flow type to ∼92% accuracy. Q* allows for accurate identification of debris flows through simple channel cross-section surveys rather than through qualitative interpretation of deposits, and therefore should increase the performance of models and engineered structures that require accurate flow-type observations.

Geophysical Research Letters↗