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Deep subsurface organic-rich shale supports abundant, diverse, and novel fungi

As Earth’s principal reservoir of organic carbon and microbial biomass, the deep subsurface hosts microorganisms capable of mobilizing this once-sequestered carbon. Contrary to standard assumptions of eukaryotic scarcity, this study documents abundant fungal communities, ranging from 4.2 × 10 3 to 6.8 × 10 3 fungal cells mL −1 , across a methane-producing organic-rich shale 247–556 meters below the surface. Although fungal:bacterial cell ratios ranged from 1:7028 to 1:713, application of biomass conversion factors developed for oceanic systems yielded a median fungal:bacterial biomass ratio of 1:4.7. 16S rRNA gene amplicons revealed bacterial and archaeal communities mirroring those found in well-characterized extremophilic, carbon-degrading environments, while sequencing of 18S rRNA gene and ITS rRNA spacer amplicons collectively identified a eukaryotic hotspot with 689 fungal OTUs across six phyla. The dominant fungal classes, Agaricomycetes and Dothideomycetes, are well-established degraders of recalcitrant carbon compounds at the surface, suggesting they may similarly contribute to organic matter degradation and ecosystem maintenance in the subsurface. Cultivation and isolation efforts yielded 205 fungal strains, including 13 candidate novel taxa, underscoring the deep subsurface as an underexplored eukaryotic habitat. Stable carbon isotopes indicate methane is predominantly generated via microbial conversion of the fossil carbon, while water isotopes suggest in situ geochemical conditions have been relatively stable since the Late Pleistocene, with subglacial recharge as a plausible mechanism for microbial introduction. Collectively, these findings suggest that fungi are underrecognized contributors to organic matter transformation and functional diversity in the deep biosphere, revealing a critical gap in our understanding of deep subsurface ecosystem processes.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio

Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States

Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Scientific Investigations Report

Forecasting water levels using the ConvLSTM algorithm in the Everglades, USA

Forecasting water levels in complex ecosystems like wetlands can support effective water resource management, ecological conservation, and understanding surface and groundwater hydrology. Predictive models can be used to simulate the complex interactions among natural processes, hydrometeorological factors, and human activities. The Greater Everglades in the USA is a well-known example of an ecosystem where complexity has motivated adoption of machine learning algorithms in water level prediction studies. This paper aims to contribute to extending existing machine learning algorithms by integrating spatiotemporal data with deep-learning algorithms in the forecasting process. In this study, a deep-learning model is developed to predict water levels on a regional scale, covering a large area of approximately 9,138 square kilometers in the Everglades ecosystem. This model has the architecture of Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory which can deal with spatiotemporal data by capturing both spatial and temporal dependencies in the training data. The forecasting capabilities of this model (referred to as the global model) are assessed by comparing the global model to two Artificial Neural Networks developed at two different gaging stations, referred to here as local models. One local model is developed at a gaging station directly influenced by nearby water control structures, whereas the other is developed at a gaging station located farther away from these structures. By leveraging data from the Everglades Depth Estimation Network spanning from January 2002 to May 2023, the global and local models were trained to forecast water levels with a two-day lead time. Our findings suggest that both the global and local models perform with approximately the same level of accuracy, with Mean Absolute Relative Error values ranging from 0.38% to 1.4% at the selected stations. The developed global model has demonstrated strong potential as a standalone forecasting tool for the entire study area in the Everglades and could eliminate the need for developing multiple local models. This finding also highlights how machine learning can capture complex spatial and temporal relationships to generate accurate water level predictions on a regional scale.

Florida

Modeling legacy nitrogen transport under instantaneous, steady-state, and transient groundwater flow conditions

In hydrologic settings where groundwater discharge contributes substantially to surface waters, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can confound surface water nitrogen loads estimated exclusively from current terrestrial sources. Additionally, legacy nitrogen in groundwater can contribute to lagged responses to nitrogen management efforts. Some methods of estimating groundwater contributions to surface water nitrogen loads account for legacy nitrogen, while others do not. The resulting differences are rarely quantified. We used a numerical modeling framework to compare three methods of estimating time-varying annual groundwater nitrogen loads to surface water receptors on eastern Long Island, New York. The instantaneous load method used steady-state contributing areas and includes no temporal groundwater lag. The second method used numerical simulations of nitrogen loads under steady-state flow, which captures groundwater transport lags but omits the annual variability in transient hydrologic stresses. The third method numerically simulated both transient groundwater flow and nitrogen transport to explicitly capture the effects of legacy nitrogen in groundwater. Depending on antecedent nitrogen and hydrologic conditions, historical nitrogen loads estimated from the numerical simulations were sometimes similar (<10% difference) and other times substantially different (±100%) from the instantaneous load estimates. Additionally, simulated future surface water nitrogen loads responded asymptotically over several decades following reductions in terrestrial nitrogen sources, further highlighting the effect of groundwater transport lag times. The comparison of the three methods, quantification of historical interannual variability, and prediction of lagged responses to nitrogen source reductions provide important context for decision makers using estimated groundwater nitrogen loads to help evaluate nitrogen management efficacy.

New York

Streamflow, base-flow, and precipitation trends and simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer on base flows upgradient from Lake Altus, western Oklahoma, 1980–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used five scenarios created from a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model (1980–2013) and historical streamflow records (1980–2022) to investigate the relation between groundwater withdrawals from the North Fork Red River aquifer and inflows to Lake Altus from the North Fork Red River in western Oklahoma. The five scenarios were (1) a scaled-equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (2) a study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (3) a zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, (4) a historical drought-threshold scenario, and (5) a base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario. For the scaled-EPS groundwater-withdrawal scenario, EPS groundwater withdrawals were often much higher than reported groundwater withdrawals and greatly decreased base flows for most scale factors. For the study-area-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, base flows were reduced more but by smaller percentages during wet periods than during dry periods when scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals. For the zonal-scaled-reported groundwater-withdrawal scenario, scaling simulated reported groundwater withdrawals within selected zones with more groundwater withdrawals did not always affect base flows more than scaling reported groundwater withdrawals within zones with less groundwater withdrawals. For the historical drought-threshold scenario, curtailing groundwater withdrawals at the drought thresholds increased annual base flows to Lake Altus by about 1,169 to 3,665 acre-feet. For the base-flow and evapotranspiration depletion scenario, the distance between a groundwater well and a stream was a major factor affecting base flow to the North Fork Red River when increasing groundwater withdrawals; however, spatially variable hydrologic properties and saturated-zone evapotranspiration could also affect the relation between base flows and groundwater withdrawals.

Oklahoma

A global database of soil microbial phospholipid fatty acids and enzyme activities

Soil microbes drive ecosystem function and play a critical role in how ecosystems respond to global change. Research surrounding soil microbial communities has rapidly increased in recent decades, and substantial data relating to phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) and potential enzyme activity have been collected and analysed. However, studies have mostly been restricted to local and regional scales, and their accuracy and usefulness are limited by the extent of accessible data. Here we aim to improve data availability by collating a global database of soil PLFA and potential enzyme activity measurements from 12,258 georeferenced samples located across all continents, 5.1% of which have not previously been published. The database contains data relating to 113 PLFAs and 26 enzyme activities, and includes metadata such as sampling date, sample depth, and soil pH, total carbon, and total nitrogen. This database will help researchers in conducting both global- and local-scale studies to better understand soil microbial biomass and function.

Scientific Data

A robust quantitative method to distinguish runoff-generated debris flows from floods

Debris flows and floods generated by rainfall runoff occur in rocky mountainous landscapes and burned steeplands. Flow type is commonly identified post-event through interpretation of depositional structures, but these may be poorly preserved or misinterpreted. Prior research indicates that discharge magnitude is commonly amplified in debris flows relative to floods due to volumetric bulking and increased frictional resistance. Here, we use this flow amplification to develop a metric ( Q* ) to separate debris flows from floods based on the ratio of observed peak discharge to the theoretical maximum water discharge from rainfall runoff. We compile 642 observations of floods and debris flows and demonstrate that Q* distinguishes flow type to ∼92% accuracy. Q* allows for accurate identification of debris flows through simple channel cross-section surveys rather than through qualitative interpretation of deposits, and therefore should increase the performance of models and engineered structures that require accurate flow-type observations.

Geophysical Research Letters

Peak-discharge frequency and potential extreme peak discharge for natural streams in the Brazos River basin, Texas

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges were estimated for 186 streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of data for natural streams in and near the Brazos River Basin, Texas. Multiple regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for each of three hydrologic regions that compose the Brazos River Basin. The equations for each region are a function of significant basin characteristics (explanatory variables). The significant explanatory variables among six that were tested are the contributing drainage area and stream slope for regions 1 and 2 and the contributing drainage area for region 3. For the three sets of equations, the coefficient of determination ranges from 0.59 to 0.93, and the standard error ranges from 0.184 to 0.391 log units. A larger coefficient of determination and a lower standard error generally are associated with the equations for hydrologic regions 2 and 3. Statistics from the regression analysis allow computation of the prediction interval associated with a given significance level for a peak-discharge frequency estimate. The regression equations can be used to estimate peak discharges for sites at, near, or away from sites with streamflow-gaging stations. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves as related to contributing drainage area were estimated for each of the three hydrologic regions from measured extreme peaks of record at 186 sites with streamflow-gaging stations and from measured extreme peaks at 37 sites without streamflow-gaging stations in and near the Brazos River Basin. The potential extreme peak-discharge curves generally are similar for hydrologic regions 1 and 2, and the curve for region 3 consistently is below the curves for regions 1 and 2, which indicates smaller peak discharges.

Texas

Precipitation-based flood-inundation maps for the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries at Lee’s Summit, Missouri, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Lee’s Summit, Missouri, assessed flooding of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries for varying precipitation magnitudes and durations, varying antecedent runoff conditions, and projected climate-change conditions. The precipitation scenarios were used to develop a library of flood-inundation maps for a 2.95-mile reach of the East Fork Little Blue River and tributaries within the city. A two-dimensional U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System (HEC–RAS; ver. 6.5) rain-on-grid model was calibrated to selected runoff events representing a range of antecedent runoff conditions and hydrologic responses. Lowest adjacent grades for structures within the nearby study area were incorporated into the terrain, and depth grids and water-surface elevation grids were developed for the study area. Simulated velocities at selected bridge locations were also developed from the model. The model was calibrated using water-surface elevation data collected from water-level loggers (pressure transducers) and streamflow measurements and water-surface elevation measurements made at a reference point during runoff events. The calibrated HEC–RAS model was used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 15-minute to 24-hour durations and ranging from a 100- to 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability (1-year to 1,000-year recurrence intervals). Flood-inundation maps were produced for depths at a reference location of 3 to 16 feet, or a depth exceeding the 0.1-percent annual exceedance probability interval precipitation. The results of each precipitation duration-frequency value were represented by a 1-foot-increment inundation map based on the generated peak streamflow from that rainfall event and the corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location. Within the HEC–RAS model, 240 scenarios were developed from the design rainfall events with each of 3 antecedent conditions. Additional scenarios were created to simulate the effects of projected precipitation scenarios on the 100-year recurrence interval, 24-hour storm and the 100-year recurrence interval, 6-hour storm. All simulation results were assigned to a flood-inundation map condition based on the generated peak flow and corresponding water-surface elevation at the East Fork Little Blue River reference location. The flood-inundation maps are shown on a web mapping application made available to the public through the City of Lee’s Summit (hyperlink will be added when available). The flood-inundation maps are tied to real-time precipitation data obtained from the Automated Surface Observing System weather station at the Lee’s Summit Municipal Airport, accessible at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=MO_ASOS . The availability of these maps, along with information regarding observed rainfall, could help provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and for postflood recovery efforts.

Missouri

The Mammoth magnetic anomaly, Pinal County, Arizona

A high-resolution Earth Mapping Resources Initiative airborne geophysical survey was flown in the southwest North American porphyry copper province to improve bedrock geologic maps and to identify areas that have unrecognized critical mineral resource potential. During the review of the aeromagnetic data, a distinctly monopolar-shaped, negative magnetic anomaly was observed at a flight elevation of 200 m above the ground with a maximum amplitude of –9500 nT. We have named this the Mammoth magnetic anomaly (MMA) because it is centered 12 km northeast of the town of Mammoth, Arizona, USA. The total field anomaly (TFA) contour of –500 nT enclosing the MMA defines an elongate shape measuring 2.5 km long by 1 km wide that trends northwest–southeast. Given the striking nature of this negative, monopolar-shaped magnetic anomaly, we conducted a ground campaign in May 2025 to determine its authenticity and potential relationship to critical mineral endowment. The MMA was confirmed on the ground with a TFA approaching –46,000 nT. Total magnetic intensity (TMI) observations routinely fell below the 18,000 nT operating floor of an industry-standard cesium-vapor total field magnetometer, and extremely low TMI measurements were corroborated along coincident traverse lines using two high dynamic range, but lower sensitivity, smartphone vector magnetometers. The lowest TMI values recorded by both smartphone magnetometers were 1000 nT and confirmed with multiple adjacent and crossing lines. Field observations suggest that this magnetic feature is caused by strong remanent magnetization within fine-grained magnetite hosted within locally altered Pinal Schist.

Arizona

Bathymetric contour maps, surface area and capacity tables, and bathymetric change maps for selected water-supply lakes in Missouri, 2022–23

Bathymetric data were collected at 13 water-supply lakes around the periphery of Missouri by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and various local agencies, as part of a multiyear effort to establish or update the surface area and capacity tables for the surveyed lakes. Surveys were carried out during the months of April and May in 2022 and 2023. All but two of the lakes had been surveyed previously by the U.S. Geological Survey, and the recent surveys were compared to the earlier surveys to document the changes in the bathymetric surface and capacity of the lake. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system mounted on a boat. Supplemental depth data at three of the lakes were collected in shallow areas with an acoustic Doppler current profiler on a remote-controlled boat. Data points from the various sources were exported at a gridded data resolution appropriate to each lake, either 0.82 foot, 1.64 feet, or 3.28 feet. Data outside the multibeam survey extent and greater than the surveyed water-surface elevation were obtained from data collected using aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) point cloud data. A linear enforcement technique was used to add points to the dataset in areas of sparse data (the upper ends of coves where the water was shallow or aquatic vegetation precluded data acquisition) based on surrounding multibeam and upland data values. The various point datasets were used to produce a three-dimensional triangulated irregular network surface of the lake-bottom elevations for each lake. A surface area and capacity table was produced from the three-dimensional surface for each lake showing surface area and capacity at specified lake water-surface elevations. Various quality-assurance tests were conducted to ensure quality data were collected with the multibeam, including beam angle checks and patch tests. Additional quality-assurance tests were conducted on the gridded bathymetric data from the survey, the bathymetric surface created from the gridded data, and the contours created from the bathymetric survey.

Missouri

Earthquake cycle mechanics during caldera collapse: Simulating the 2018 Kīlauea eruption

In multiple observed caldera-forming eruptions, the rock overlying a draining magma reservoir dropped downward along ring faults in sequences of discrete collapse earthquakes. These sequences are analogous to tectonic earthquake cycles and provide opportunities to examine fault mechanics and collapse eruption dynamics over multiple events. Collapse earthquake cycles have been studied with zero-dimensional slider-block models, but these do not account for the complicated interplay between fluid and elastic dynamics or for factors such as the heterogeneous fault properties and non-vertical ring fault geometries often inferred at volcanoes. We present two-dimensional axisymmetric mafic piston-like collapse earthquake cycle models that include rate-and-state friction, fully-dynamic elasticity, and compressible viscous fluid magma flow. We demonstrate that collapse earthquake intervals and magnitudes are highly sensitive to inertial effects, evolving stress fields, fault geometry, and depth-varying fault friction. Given the consistent earthquake cycles observed in most eruptions, this suggests that ring faults can quickly stabilize and often become nearly vertical at depth. We use the well-monitored 2018 collapse sequence at Kı̄lauea as a case study. Our model can produce many features of Kı̄lauea seismic and geodetic observations, except for a significant amount of interseismic slip, which cannot be readily explained with simple rate-and-state friction parameterizations.

Hawaii

Potential warming-induced changes in stream water sources between proglacial and non-glacial streams, south-central Alaska

Snow and ice-melt are essential for global water resources. Rising air temperatures are causing vegetation encroachment and shrubification of previously snow- and ice-covered landscapes, and precipitation regimes are changing. Collectively, these changes will likely affect the hydrology of mountain environments, although the exact ways in which the hydrology will change are poorly understood. Changing source waters (i.e., the proportion of ice-melt, snowmelt, rain and groundwater) affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow and affect stream temperature, sediment, solute and nutrient fluxes. We investigate spatial and seasonal source water contributions across sub-watersheds of the Nellie Juan River watershed on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula, which differ in glacier cover, elevation and land cover, using a space-for-time approach. To do so, we use a three-endmember mixing model to quantify the contribution of rain, snow/ice-melt and deep groundwater. We show that snow/ice-melt peak later in proglacial streams compared to non-glacial streams. Endmember contributions in non-glacial streams generally vary with elevation and season. We also found that groundwater is a major contributor to streamflow across the study area, contributing between 12% and 47% seasonally, and may become increasingly important as snowpack and ice-melt decrease. This research characterises the shift from a glacierised to a deglaciating landscape through the lens of source water contribution. Broadly, these findings could help improve understanding of how water resources in glacierised watersheds are affected by warming air temperatures.

Alaska

The Sand AbrasioN Device for Aeolian Research (SANDAR): A new experimental device for investigating how wind transport affects sand on Earth and Mars

On Earth and Mars, aeolian transport causes sand grains to become abraded, resulting in mineralogic and textural changes. Understanding how sands evolve, or mature, with transport via experimental studies is important for understanding the origins, geologic history, and cycling of sediments, as well as dust production. Previous experimental works have used a variety of methods to simulate aeolian transport in the laboratory, but practical limitations and similitude concerns have limited such research. Here, we present and validate the Sand AbrasioN Device for Aeolian Research (SANDAR), a modified air mill that uses pressurized air to circulate sand around a small abrasion chamber, simulating the effects of aeolian transport. This device is re-circulating to simulate long-distance transport, and it allows for repeated analyses of well-constrained sediment samples, revealing their evolution over time. It is compatible with the grain sizes (74–500 μm) and grain impact velocities (∼0.6–3.7 m/s) typically expected for natural aeolian environments, and is also adaptable for diverse applications simulating different wind conditions. We show that the SANDAR achieves similitude of kinetic energy with respect to saltating sand on both Earth and Mars. SEM and optical microscope imaging reveal that the SANDAR produces microtextures on the surfaces of sand grains similar to those found with natural aeolian transport, demonstrating that it effectively simulates the mechanical effects of aeolian processes. Thus, the SANDAR is a valid tool for use in experimental research to improve our understanding of sedimentary processes across the Solar System.

Aeolian Research

Hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the Horse Creek basin, west-central Florida, October 1992-February 1995

A baseline study of the 241-square-mile Horse Creek basin was undertaken from October 1992 to February 1995 to assess the hydrologic and water-quality conditions of one of the last remaining undeveloped basins in west-central Florida. During the period of the study, much of the basin remained in a natural state, except for limited areas of cattle and citrus production and phosphate mining. Rainfall in 1993 and 1994 in the Horse Creek basin was 8 and 31 percent, respectively, above the 30-year long-term average. The lowest and highest maximum instantaneous peak discharge of the six daily discharge stations occurred at the Buzzard Roost Branch and the Horse Creek near Arcadia stations with 185 to 4,180 cubic feet per second, respectively. The Horse Creek near Arcadia station had the lowest number of no-flow days with zero days and the Brushy Creek station had the highest number with 113 days. During the study, the West Fork Horse Creek subbasin had the highest daily mean discharge per square mile with 30.6 cubic feet per second per square mile, and the largest runoff coefficient of 43.7 percent. The Buzzard Roost Branch subbasin had the lowest daily mean discharge per square mile with 5.05 cubic feet per second per square mile, and Brushy Creek and Brandy Branch shared the lowest runoff coefficient of 0.6 percent. Brandy Branch had the highest monthly mean runoff in both 1993 and 1994 with 11.48 and 19.28 inches, respectively. During the high-baseflow seepage run, seepage gains were 8.87 cubic feet per second along the 43-mile Horse Creek channel. However, during the low-baseflow seepage run, seepage losses were 0.88 cubic foot per second. Three methods were used to estimate average annual ground-water recharge in the Horse Creek basin: (1) well hydrograph, (2) chloride mass balance, and (3) streamflow hydrograph. Estimated average annual recharge using these three methods ranged from 3.6 to 8.7 inches. The high percentage of carbonate plus bicarbonate analyzed at the Carlton surficial aquifer well could indicate an upward ground-water flow from the underlying intermediate aquifer system. Based on constituent concentrations in water samples from the six daily discharge stations, concentrations generally are lower in the upper three subbasins, West Fork Horse Creek, Upper Horse Creek, and Brushy Creek than in the lower three subbasins. Typically, concentrations were highest for major ions at Buzzard Roost Branch and nutrients at Brushy Creek.

Florida

Geochemical processes related to mined, milled, or natural metal deposits in a rapidly changing global environment

The demand for metals and raw materials, such as nickel and copper, has been projected to expand in the coming decades, driven by the global energy transition, the need for green technologies, and expanding infrastructure. Consequently, the increasing extraction and production of mining waste can have adverse impacts on surrounding environments and human health. The aim of this thematic collection is to fill critical knowledge gaps in the present-day cycles of metal(loid)s from source to larger sinks, and the effect of environmental management, anthropogenic development, and climate change. Altogether, the studies have been conducted in different natural settings around the world and comprise investigations in laterites, a soil-medicinal plant system, watersheds, and banded iron formations, among others. The geochemical applications in tracing mineralization, its secondary products, and/or potential impact on the immediate environment are highly diverse with applied tools ranging from isotope tracers to major and trace element systematics. Particularly the use of rare earth elements, their patterns and anomalies are methods employed by several studies in this collection. We summarize the findings to offer a potential future direction for the use of geochemical tracing techniques in resource exploration in the context of climate change and environmental challenges.

Geochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis

Dating a medieval tsunami with uranium-series techniques on Caribbean corals

Uranium-series dates from coral boulders constrain the timing of a medieval tsunami from the Puerto Rico Trench. Previously reported evidence for this tsunami includes hundreds of coral boulders that came to rest hundreds of meters inland on Anegada, British Virgin Islands. New U-series dates on these coral boulders provide limiting dates for the tsunami. The narrowest limits were by dating interior bands of a coral that retains the hemispherical form of a living coral colony, and which include adjustments for the number of annual density band couplets between the dated samples and the boulder exteriors. By those limits, the tsunami dates between 1381 and 1391 CE, and likely occurred during summer or fall. The tsunami is important as the only reported sign that the eastern Puerto Rico Trench has produced a great earthquake. The dating may aid in defining the earthquake source and in communicating tsunami hazards.

British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico

Modeling byproduct and coproduct mine production and mineral substitution using multidimensional supply curves: Application to the Cu-Co-Ni system and beyond

Rapid demand growth is expected for many metals used in the energy transition. Many of these metals are byproducts of other commodities. Byproduct production’s price response is tied to host mineral economics, complicating its supply dynamics. Moreover, many of these metals are used in applications where the material properties desired are difficult to substitute; effectively, limiting how quickly demand can adapt to changes in commodity price. Previous work has demonstrated the interconnectivity of jointly produced mineral commodities from the supply side, where the copper–cobalt–nickel system was used and demand was assumed independent across commodities. Studies to understand byproduct-coproduct market interconnectivity on the demand side are limited, while studies on the interconnectivity of supply and demand simultaneously are even more so. We propose a modification to the multicommodity supply curve method to enable inter-commodity effects on demand simultaneous with supply. In batteries, high cobaltprices may push consumers to transition to high-nickel chemistries, causing the nickel demand surface to decrease with nickel price but increase with cobaltprice, creating a two-dimensional demand surface. Below cross-price elasticities of 0.05, inter-commodity effects were found to be negligible, potentially permitting exclusion of these effects for many commodities. This additional demand curve complexity introduces potential computation challenges alongside the capacity to model many interrelated commodity systems such as rare earth elements, ferroalloys, country-oriented subsidies or restrictions, and bifurcated sustainable metals markets. By presenting the work done on multicommodity supply surfaces to date and potential new directions, this work aims to catalyze the next round of innovative approaches to modeling jointly produced commodities.

Conference Paper