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USGS2000

Water resources data, Alaska, water year 1999

The Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State and other agencies, obtains a large amount of data pertaining to the water resources of Alaska each water year. These data, accumulated during many water years, constitute a valuable data base for developing an improved understanding of the water resources of the State. To make these data readily available to interested parties outside the Geological Survey, the data are published annually in this report series entitled "Water Resources Data - Alaska."

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Methodology and estimates of scour at selected bridge sites in Alaska

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated scour depths at 325 bridges in Alaska as part of a cooperative agreement with the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities. The department selected these sites from approximately 806 State-owned bridges as potentially susceptible to scour during extreme floods. Pier scour and contraction scour were computed for the selected bridges by using methods recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. The U.S. Geological Survey used a four-step procedure to estimate scour: (1) Compute magnitudes of the 100- and 500-year floods. (2) Determine cross-section geometry and hydraulic properties for each bridge site. (3) Compute the water-surface profile for the 100- and 500-year floods. (4) Compute contraction and pier scour. This procedure is unique because the cross sections were developed from existing data on file to make a quantitative estimate of scour. This screening method has the advantage of providing scour depths and bed elevations for comparison with bridge-foundation elevations without the time and expense of a field survey. Four examples of bridge-scour analyses are summarized in the appendix.

Alaska↗

USGS1980

Geohydrology of the Delta-Clearwater area, Alaska

The alluvial aquifer in the Delta-Clearwater area, Alaska, is composed of lenticular, interbedded deposits of silt, sand, and gravel. Ground water occurs under both confined and unconfined conditions in the area. The potentiometric surface slopes approximately northward at gradients ranging from about 1 to 25 feet per mile. The aquifer is recharge by seepage through the streambeds of rivers and creeks and by infiltration of precipitation. Water is discharged from the aquifer into the Clearwater Creek network and Clearwater Lake, which are almost entirely spring-fed, at the mouth of the Delta River, and into the Tanana River along the northern boundary of the study area. Year-round ground-water discharge from the aquifer is estimated to exceed 1,200 cubic feet per second. The following ground-water flow system is hypothesized: Channel losses from the Gerstle River, several small creeks draining the Alaska Range, and the Tanana River to the east of Clearwater Creek recharge the sections of the aquifer discharging at the Clearwater Creek network. Channel losses from the Delta River and Jarvis Creek are the main source of recharge to the sections of the aquifer discharging in the vicinity of Clearwater Lake and Big Delta. Additional work is needed to verify these hypotheses. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1987

Quantity and quality of urban runoff from the Chester Creek basin Anchorage, Alaska

Urbanization has affected both the flow characteristics and water quality of streams in the Chester Creek basin, of Anchorage, Alaska. Peak flows are higher in the urban rather than rural parts of the basin, and the percent of effective impervious area has a significant effect on storm runoff volumes and peaks. Water quality in the Chester Creek basin varies according to season and flow conditions. During low or base-flow conditions, concentrations of most water quality constituents measured are within State of Alaska drinking water standards, except for fecal coliform bacteria. During periods of high flow due to snowmelt or rainfall, concentrations of trace metal lead usually exceed recommended maximum levels. The primary sources of trace metal lead and suspended sediments are commercial areas , while the primary source of nutrients and fecal coliform bacteria is residential areas. Streamflow and water quality data collected at five sites representing different land-use categories were used to calibrate and verify three U.S. Geological Survey computer-based models: the Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II), the Multi-Event Urban Runoff Quality Model (DR3M-QUAL), and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling Systems (PRMS). The PRMS can be used to simulate the effects of increased urbanization on daily flows. The DR3M-II can be used to simulate storm effects on small basins of < 40 acres. The DR3M-QUAL can be used to estimate seasonal loads of suspended sediment from basins of < 40 acres. (Lantz-PTT)

Alaska↗

USGS1995

Hydraulic characteristics near streamside structures along the Kenai River, Alaska

Hydraulic characteristics, water velocity, depth, and flow direction were measured near eight sites along the Kenai River in southcentral Alaska. Each of the eight sites contained a different type of structure: a road-type boat launch, a canal-type boat launch, a floating dock, a rock retaining wall, a pile-supported dock, a jetty, a concrete retaining wall, and a bank stabilization project near the city of Soldotna. Measurements of hydraulic characteristics were made to determine to what extent the structures affected natural or ambient stream hydraulic characteristics. The results will be used by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game to evaluate assumptions used in their Habitat Evaluation Procedure assessment of juvenile chinook salmon habitat along the river and to improve their understanding of stream hydraulics for use in permitting potential projects. The study included structures along the Kenai River from about 12 to 42 miles upstream from the mouth. Hydraulic characteristics were measured during medium-, high-, and low-flow conditions, as measured at the Kenai River at Soldotna: (1) discharge ranged from 6,310 to 6,480 cubic feet per second during medium flow conditions that were near mean annual flow on June 9-10, 1994; (2) discharge ranged from 14,000 to 14,400 cubic feet per second during high flow conditions that were near peak annual flow conditions on August 2-3, 1994; and (3) discharge ranged from 3,470 to 3,660 cubic feet per second during open-water low-flow conditions on May 8-9, 1995. Measurements made at the structures were compared with measurements made at nearby unaffected natural sites. The floating dock, pile-supported dock, road-type boat launch, and concrete retaining wall did not significantly alter the stream channel area. These structures contributed only hydraulic-roughness type changes. The structures occupied a much smaller area than that of the wetted perimeter of the channel and thus typically had little effect on velocity, depth, or flow direction. During this investigation, many of these subtle effects could not be separated from ambient hydraulic conditions. The jetty significantly altered stream channel area and therefore affected stream hydraulics more than the other structures that were investigated. Data indicated that velocity increased from 1.9 to 5.8 feet per second near the point of the jetty during measurements in May, June, and August. Rock wall and jetty structures also divert flow away from near-shore areas in proportion to their projection lengths into the river. For the jetty, the effect on surface flow was observed downstream for a distance of about 10 times the length of the jetty's projection into the river and upstream for about 4 to 5 times the length of the projection. For the rock wall, the diversion of flow was evident for 10 to 15 feet downstream.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1996

Glaciers along proposed routes extending the Copper River Highway, Alaska

Three inland highway routes are being considered by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities to connect the community of Cordova in southcentral Alaska to a statewide road system. The routes use part of a Copper River and Northwest Railway alignment along the Copper River through mountainous terrain having numerous glaciers. An advance of any of several glaciers could block and destroy the roadway, whereas retreating glaciers expose large quantities of unconsolidated, unvegetated, and commonly ice-rich sediments. The purpose of this study was to map historical locations of glacier termini near these routes and to describe hazards associated with glaciers and seasonal snow. Historical and recent locations of glacier termini along the proposed Copper River Highway routes were determined by reviewing reports and maps and by interpreting aerial photographs. The termini of Childs, Grinnell, Tasnuna, and Woodworth Glaciers were 1 mile or less from a proposed route in the most recently available aerial photography (1978-91); the termini of Allen, Heney, and Schwan Glaciers were 1.5 miles or less from a proposed route. In general, since 1911, most glaciers have slowly retreated, but many glaciers have had occasional advances. Deserted Glacier and one of its tributary glaciers have surge-type medial moraines, indicating potential rapid advances. The terminus of Deserted Glacier was about 2.1 miles from a proposed route in 1978, but showed no evidence of surging. Snow and rock avalanches and snowdrifts are common along the proposed routes and will periodically obstruct the roadway. Floods from ice-dammed lakes also pose a threat. For example, Van Cleve Lake, adjacent to Miles Glacier, is as large as 4.4 square miles and empties about every 6 years. Floods from drainages of Van Cleve Lake have caused the Copper River to rise on the order of 20 feet at Million Dollar Bridge.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1997

Hydrologic conditions and hazards in the Kennicott River Basin, Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska

McCarthy, Alaska, is on the Kennicott River, about 1 mile from the terminus of Kennicott Glacier in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve. Most visitors to McCarthy and the park cross the West Fork Kennicott River using a hand-pulled tram and cross the East Fork Kennicott River on a temporary footbridge. Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes result in channel erosion, aggradation, and migration of the Kennicott River, which disrupt transportation links, destroy property, and threaten life. Hidden Creek Lake, the largest of six glacier-dammed lakes in the Kennicott River Basin, has annual outbursts that cause the largest floods on the Kennicott River. Outbursts from Hidden Creek Lake occur from early fall to mid-summer, and lake levels at the onset of the outbursts have declined between 1909 and 1995. Criteria for impending outbursts for Hidden Creek Lake include lake stage near or above 3,000 to 3,020 feet, stationary or declining lake stage, evidence of recent calving of large ice blocks from the ice margin, slush ice and small icebergs stranded on the lakeshore, and fresh fractures in the ice-margin region. The lower Kennicott Glacier has thinned and retreated since about 1860. The East and West Fork Kennicott River channels migrated in response to changes in the lower Kennicott Glacier. The largest channel changes occur during outburst floods from Hidden Creek Lake, whereas channel changes from the other glacier-dammed lake outbursts are small. Each year, the West Fork Kennicott River conveys a larger percentage of the Kennicott Glacier drainage than it did the previous year. Outburst floods on the Kennicott River cause the river stage to rise over a period of several hours. Smaller spike peaks have a very rapid stage rise. Potential flood magnitude was estimated by combining known maximum discharges from Hidden Creek Lake and Lake Erie outburst floods with a theoretical large regional flood. Flood hazard areas at the transportation corridor were delineated, and possible future geomorphological changes were hypothesized. McCarthy, Alaska, is on the Kennicott River, about 1 mile from the terminus of Kennicott Glacier in the Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve. Most visitors to McCarthy and the park cross the West Fork Kennicott River using a hand-pulled tram and cross the East Fork Kennicott River on a temporary footbridge. Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes result in channel erosion, aggradation, and migration of the Kennicott River, which disrupt transportation links, destroy property, and threaten life. Hidden Creek Lake, the largest of six glacier-dammed lakes in the Kennicott River Basin, has annual outbursts that cause the largest floods on the Kennicott River. Outbursts from Hidden Creek Lake occur from early fall to mid-summer, and lake levels at the onset of the outbursts have declined between 1909 and 1995. Criteria for impending outbursts for Hidden Creek Lake include lake stage near or above 3,000 to 3,020 feet, stationary or declining lake stage, evidence of recent calving of large ice blocks from the ice margin, slush ice and small icebergs stranded on the lakeshore, and fresh fractures in the ice-margin region. The lower Kennicott Glacier has thinned and retreated since about 1860. The East and West Fork Kennicott River channels migrated in response to changes in the lower Kennicott Glacier. The largest channel changes occur during outburst floods from Hidden Creek Lake, whereas channel changes from the other glacier-dammed lake outbursts are small. Each year, the West Fork Kennicott River conveys a larger percentage of the Kennicott Glacier drainage than it did the previous year. Outburst floods on the Kennicott River cause the river stage to rise over a period of several hours. Smaller spike peaks have a very rapid stage rise. Potential flood magnitude was estimated by combining known maximum discharges from Hidden Creek Lake and Lake Erie outburst floods with

Alaska↗

USGS1964

Geology and ground-water resources of the Anchorage area, Alaska

The Anchorage area, at the head of Cook Inlet in south-central Alaska, occupies 150 square miles of a glaciated lowland and lies between two estuaries and the Chugach Mountains. Two military bases are in the area; Anchorage is the largest city in Alaska and the chief transportation center for this part of the State. The bedrock in the Anchorage area is chiefly Tertiary shale in the lowland and metamorphic rocks of Mesozoic age beneath the adjacent mountain slopes. Glacial drift which underlies nearly the entire area has an average thickness of several hundred feet and appears to include at least five sheets of deposits, two of which are exposed. The drift consists of till, outwash stream and lake deposits (sand and gravel), and estuarine (and lake) deposits (clay and silt). The stratigraphy and lateral distribution of the deposits are complex, but data at hand s, how that the thickest deposits, including all the estuarine and lake sediment and most of the stream-deposited sediment, are beneath the lowland away from the mountain wall, and that the deposits near the mountains are till and subordinate outwash sediments. Deposits of sand and gravel laid down by outwash streams in channels and on outwash plains are the most important aquifers, and the only ones which yield large quantities of ground water from single beds. Thin layers of sandy or gravelly material in till are also important aquifers although they yield relatively small quantities of water. Bedded sand and silt associated with the estuarine and lake(?) clay commonly becomes unstable during drilling and pumping, and has been successfully developed in only a few wells. Unconfined aquifers are extensive, but permeable saturated material is thin in many places and water supplies available from them are small or undependable in those places. The most important aquifers are confined or artesian. Clay and till form the confining beds: the till is somewhat 'leaky' in many places. Near Anchorage the buried water-bearing beds appear to be interconnected and to form a single artesian system. The water table and piezometric surface slope from the mountain wall of the lowland toward the estuaries, and the flow of the ground water is in that direction. The aquifers are recharged by the infiltration of precipitation at the land surface and of surface water through stream beds: near the mountains the artesian aquifers are probably recharged in part by percolation from the water-table aquifer, and far from the mountains the water-table aquifer is probably recharged in part by upward flow from the underlying artesian aquifers. In several valleys and in a few other places, in the lowland, artesian wells flow at the land surface. The outwash sand and gravel are moderately to very permeable; most of the other water-bearing material are much less permeable. The co- efficient of transmissibility for some single beds of sandy gravel is as high as 60,000 to I00,000 gpd per ft (gallons per day per foot); for the entire section of glacial drift at and near Anchorage it is believed to be of the order of 200,000 gpd per ft. Calculations based on this value for the total section and on the slope of the piezometric surface indicate that in the immediate vicinity of Anchorage about 5 million gpd flows through each mile-wide section of the drift (measured in a northeast-southwest direction, perpendicular to the direction of flow), under normal (nonpumping) conditions. Under conditions of continuous heavy pumping the slope of the piezometric surface is steepened, flow is increased, and additional recharge is induced. The highest yield reported from a well in this area is 2.600 gpm (gallons per minute) with 35 feet of drawdown: the highest reported specific capacity is 180 gpm per ft of drawdown, for a well pumped at. 270 gpm. Only a few wells in the area have been developed for high yields. Well screens have been used

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2017

Glacier-volcano interactions in the north crater of Mt. Wrangell, Alaska

Glaciological and related observations from 1961 to 2005 at the summit of Mt Wrangell (62.008 N, 144.028W; 4317 m a.s.l.), a massive glacier-covered shield volcano in south-central Alaska, show marked changes that appear to have been initiated by the Great Alaska Earthquake (MW = 9.2) of 27 March 1964. The 4 x 6 km diameter, ice-filled Summit Caldera with several post-caldera craters on its rim, comprises the summit region where annual snow accumulation is 1–2 m of water equivalent and the mean annual temperature, measured 10 m below the snow surface, is –20°C. Precision surveying, aerial photogrammetry and measurements of temperature and snow accumulation were used to measure the loss of glacier ice equivalent to about 0.03 km 3 of water from the North Crater in a decade. Glacier calorimetry was used to calculate the associated heat flux, which varied within the range 20–140W m –2 ; total heat flow was in the range 20–100 MW. Seismicity data from the crater’s rim show two distinct responses to large earthquakes at time scales from minutes to months. Chemistry of water and gas from fumaroles indicates a shallow magma heat source and seismicity data are consistent with this interpretation.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Quiescent-phase evolution of a surge-type glacier: Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, U.S.A.

Black Rapids Glacier, a surge-type glacier in the Alaska Range, most recently surged in 1936–37 and is currently in its quiescent phase. Mass balance, ice velocity and thickness change have been measured at three to ten sites from 1972 to 1994. The annual speed has undergone cyclical fluctuations of as much as 45% about the mean speed. Ice thickness and surface slope did not change enough to cause the speed fluctuations through changes in ice deformation, which indicates that they are being drinven by changes in basal motion. The behavior of Black Rapids Glacier during this quiescent phase is significantly different from that of Variegated Glacier, another well-studied surge-type glacier in Alaska. The present medial-moraine configuration of Black Rapids Glacier indicates that a surge could occur at any time. However, ice velocity data indicate that the next surge may not be imminent. We belive that there is little chance that the next surge will cross and dam the Delta River.

Journal of Glaciology↗

USGS2017

Reassortment of influenza A viruses in wild birds in Alaska before H5 Clade 2.3.4.4 Outbreaks

Sampling of mallards in Alaska during September 2014–April 2015 identified low pathogenic avian influenza A virus (subtypes H5N2 and H1N1) that shared ancestry with highly pathogenic reassortant H5N2 and H5N1 viruses. Molecular dating indicated reassortment soon after interhemispheric movement of H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4, suggesting genetic exchange in Alaska or surrounds before outbreaks.

Emerging Infectious Diseases↗

USGS2025

Exposure of wild mammals inhabiting Alaska to influenza A(H5N1) virus

Serum samples from wild mammals inhabiting Alaska, USA, showed that 4 species, including Ursus arctos bears and Vulpes vulpes foxes, were exposed to influenza A(H5N1) viruses. Results indicated some mammals in Alaska survived H5N1 virus infection. Surveillance efforts may be improved by incorporating information on susceptibility and detectable immune responses among wild mammals.

Alaska↗

USGS1994

Association of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus with epizootic hemorrhages of the skin in Pacific herring Clupea harengus pallasi from Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA

Only one-third of the Pacific hernng Clupea harengus pallasi expected to spawn in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, USA, in sprlng 1993 were observed. Of these herring, 15 to 43 '% had external ulcers or subdermal hemorrhages of the skln and fins. A rhabdovirus identified as the North American strain of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) was isolated from affected herring and 1 Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus with skin lesions from PWS, and from herring with similar lesions collected near Kodiak Island. No other pathogens were detected in the herring examined. Although VHSV may have been responsible for the skin lesions, there was no confirmed mass herring mortality observed in PWS; hence the actual cause of the reduced herring numbers is still unknown. The same strain of VHSV was subsequently isolated from captive juvenile herring collected from Auke Bay, Alaska, near Juneau, from herring in British Columbia, Canada, and from Puget Sound, Washington, USA. These findings suggest the virus is an opportunistic pathogen that is widely indigenous to Pacific herring populations in the Pacific Northwest and that herring are a significant marine reservoir for North American VHSV.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Knowledge gaps update to the 2019 IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere: Prospects to refine coastal flood hazard assessments and adaptation strategies with at-risk communities of Alaska

This article reviews the status of knowledge gaps and co-production process challenges that impede coastal flood hazard resilience planning in communities of northwestern Alaska, where threat levels are high. Discussion focuses on the state of knowledge arising after preparation of the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and highlights prospects to address urgent needs. The intent is to identify some key steps necessary to advance the integration of relevant multidisciplinary observations with flood modeling and infrastructure mapping to co-produce new online hazard and risk assessment tools that inform local community planning and improve science collaboration among Federal, state, and regional partners for enhanced pre-storm preparations and post-storm recovery, including partial or complete relocation. By focusing coastal data integration for delivery of priority geospatial hazard map products through a consistent yet customized approach to adaptation planning, the broad collaborative effort in Alaska may yield a path of stakeholder service delivery that can be applied to many Arctic communities and other vulnerable regions of the world.

Frontiers in Climate↗

USGS2018

The Polar WRF downscaled historical and projected twenty-first century climate for the coast and foothills of Arctic Alaska

Climate change is most pronounced in the northern high latitude region. Yet, climate observations are unable to fully capture regional-scale dynamics due to the sparse weather station coverage, which limits our ability to make reliable climate-based assessments. A set of simulated data products was therefore developed for the North Slope of Alaska through a dynamical downscaling approach. The polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecast (Polar WRF) model was forced by three sources: The ERA-interim reanalysis data (for 1979–2014), the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) historical simulation (for 1950–2005), and the CESM1.0 projected (for 2006–2100) simulations in two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Climatic variables were produced in a 10-km grid spacing and a 3-h interval. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) proves the value of dynamical downscaling, which yields more realistic topographical-induced precipitation and air temperature, as well as corrects underestimations in observed precipitation. In summary, dry and cold biases to the north of the Brooks Range are presented in ERA-WRF, while CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) holds wet and warm biases in its historical period. A linear scaling method allowed for an adjustment of the biases, while keeping the majority of the variability and extreme values of modeled precipitation and air temperature. CESM-WRF under RCP 4.5 scenario projects smaller increase in precipitation and air temperature than observed in the historical CESM-WRF product, while the CESM-WRF under RCP 8.5 scenario shows larger changes. The fine spatial and temporal resolution, long temporal coverage, and multi-scenario projections jointly make the dataset appropriate to address a myriad of physical and biological changes occurring on the North Slope of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Alaska Volcano Observatory alert and forecasting timeliness: 1989–2017

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) monitors volcanoes in Alaska and issues notifications and warnings of volcanic unrest and eruption. We evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of eruption forecasts for 53 eruptions at 20 volcanoes, beginning with Mount Redoubt's 1989–1990 eruption. Successful forecasts are defined as those where AVO issued a formal warning before eruption onset. These warning notifications are now part of AVO's Aviation Color Code and Volcanic Alert Level. This analysis considers only the start of an eruption, although many eruptions have multiple phases of activity. For the 21 eruptions at volcanoes with functioning local seismic networks, AVO has high forecasting success at volcanoes with: >15 years repose intervals and magmatic eruptions (4 out of 4, 100%); or larger eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 3 or greater; 6 out of 10, 60%). Therefore, AVO successfully forecast all four monitored, longer-repose period, VEI 3+ eruptions: Redoubt 1989–1990 and 2009, Spurr 1992, and Augustine 2005–2006. For volcanoes with functioning seismic monitoring networks, success rates are lower for: volcanoes with shorter repose periods (3 out of 16, 19%); more mafic compositions (3 out of 18, 17%); or smaller eruption size (VEI 2 or less, 1 out of 11, 9%). These eruptions (Okmok, Pavlof, Veniaminof, and Shishaldin) often lack detectable precursory signals. For 32 eruptions at volcanoes without functioning local seismic networks, the forecasting success rate is much lower (2, 6%; Kasatochi 2008 and Shishaldin 2014). For remote volcanoes where the main hazard is to aviation, rapid detection is a goal in the absence of in situ monitoring. Eruption detection has improved in recent years, shown by a decrease in the time between eruption onset and notification. Even limited seismic monitoring can detect precursory activity at volcanoes with certain characteristics (intermediate composition, longer repose times, larger eruptions), but difficulty persists in detecting subtle precursory activity at frequently active volcanoes with more mafic compositions. This suggests that volcano-specific characteristics should be considered when designing monitoring programs and evaluating forecasting success. More proximally-located sensors and data types are likely needed to forecast eruptive activity at frequently-active, more mafic volcanoes that generally produce smaller eruptions.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Short-term forecasting and detection of explosions during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, Alaska

We describe a multidisciplinary approach to forecast, rapidly detect, and characterize explosive events during the 2016–2017 eruption of Bogoslof volcano, a back-arc shallow submarine volcano in Alaska’s Aleutian arc. The eruptive sequence began in December 2016 and included about 70 discrete explosive events. Because the volcano has no local monitoring stations, we used distant stations on the nearest volcanoes, Okmok (54 km) and Makushin (72 km), combined with regional infrasound sensors and lightning detection from the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Pre-eruptive seismicity was detected for 12 events during the first half of the eruption; for all other events co-eruptive signals allowed for detection only. Monitoring of activity used a combination of scheduled checks combined with automated alarms. Alarms triggered on real-time data included real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM); infrasound from several arrays, the closest being on Okmok; and lightning strokes detected from WWLLN within a 20-km radius of the volcano. During periods of unrest, a multidisciplinary response team of four people fulfilled specific roles to evaluate geophysical and remote-sensing data, run event-specific ash-cloud dispersion models, ensure interagency coordination, and develop and distribute of formalized warning products. Using this approach, for events that produced ash clouds ≥7.5 km above sea level, Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) called emergency response partners 15 min, and issued written notices 30 min, after event onset (mean times). Factors that affect timeliness of written warnings include event size and number of data streams available; bigger events and more data both decrease uncertainty and allow for faster warnings. In remote areas where airborne ash is the primary hazard, the approach used at Bogoslof is an effective strategy for hazard mitigation.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Holocene thermokarst lake dynamics in northern Interior Alaska: The interplay of climate, fire, and subsurface hydrology

The current state of permafrost in Alaska and meaningful expectations for its future evolution are informed by long-term perspectives of previous permafrost degradation. Thermokarst processes in permafrost landscapes often lead to widespread lake formation and the spatial and temporal evolution of thermokarst lake landscapes reflects the combined effects of climate, ground conditions, vegetation, and fire. This study provides detailed analyses of thermokarst lake sediments of Holocene age from the southern loess uplands of the Yukon Flats; including bathymetry and sediment core analyses across a water depth transect. The sediment core results, dated by radiocarbon and 210Pb, indicate the onset of finely laminated lacustrine sedimentation between ~10,000 and 9,000 cal yr BP following basin development through inferred thermokarst processes. Thermokarst expansion to modern shoreline configurations continued until ~5000 cal yr BP, which may have been influenced by increased fire. Between ~5000 and 2000 cal yr BP, the preservation of fine laminations at intermediate and deep-water depths indicate higher lake levels than present. At that time, the lake likely overflowed into an over-deepened gully system that is no longer occupied by perennial streams. By ~2000 cal yr BP, massive sedimentation at intermediate water depths indicates that lake levels lowered, which is interpreted to reflect a response to drier conditions based on correspondence with Yukon Flats regional fire and local paleoclimate reconstructions. Consideration of additional contributing mechanisms include the possible influence of catastrophic lake drainages on downgradient base flow levels that may have enhanced subsurface water loss, although this mechanism is untested. The overall consistency between the millennial lake level trends documented here with regional paleoclimate trends indicates that after lakes formed, their size and depth has likely been affected directly by North Pacific atmospheric circulation changes and indirectly through evolution of permafrost, ground ice and sub-surface hydrology. As the first detailed study of Holocene thermokarst basin expansion, stabilization and subsequent climate-driven lake level variations in a loess upland, results provide a framework for future investigations of paleoclimatic signals from similar lake systems that characterize large regions of Alaska and Siberia.

Alaska↗