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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2004

Topographic Map of the Ophir and Central Candor Chasmata Region of Mars MTM 500k -05/287E OMKT

This map, compiled photogrammetrically from Viking Orbiter stereo image pairs, is part of a series of topographic maps of areas of special scientific interest on Mars. The figure of Mars used for the computation of the map projection is an oblate spheroid (flattening of 1/176.875) with an equatorial radius of 3396.0 km and a polar radius of 3376.8 km. The datum (the 0-km contour line) for elevations is defined as the equipotential surface (gravitational plus rotational) whose average value at the equator is equal to the mean radius as determined by Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. The projection is part of a Mars Transverse Mercator (MTM) system with 20? wide zones. For the area covered by this map sheet the central meridian is at 290? E. (70? W.). The scale factor at the central meridian of the zone containing this quadrangle is 0.9960 relative to a nominal scale of 1:500,000. Longitude increases to the east and latitude is planetocentric as allowed by IAU/IAG standards and in accordance with current NASA and USGS standards. A secondary grid (printed in red) has been added to the map as a reference to the west longitude/planetographic latitude system that is also allowed by IAU/IAG standards and has been used for previous Mars maps.

IMAP↗
USGS2014

Groundwater-quality characteristics for the Wyoming Groundwater-Quality Monitoring Network, November 2009 through September 2012

Groundwater samples were collected from 146 shallow (less than or equal to 500 feet deep) wells for the Wyoming Groundwater-Quality Monitoring Network, from November 2009 through September 2012. Groundwater samples were analyzed for physical characteristics, major ions and dissolved solids, trace elements, nutrients and dissolved organic carbon, uranium, stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen, volatile organic compounds, and coliform bacteria. Selected samples also were analyzed for gross alpha radioactivity, gross beta radioactivity, radon, tritium, gasoline range organics, diesel range organics, dissolved hydrocarbon gases (methane, ethene, and ethane), and wastewater compounds. Water-quality measurements and concentrations in some samples exceeded numerous U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) drinking water standards. Physical characteristics and constituents that exceeded EPA Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) in some samples were arsenic, selenium, nitrite, nitrate, gross alpha activity, and uranium. Total coliforms and Escherichia coli in some samples exceeded EPA Maximum Contaminant Level Goals. Measurements of pH and turbidity and concentrations of chloride, sulfate, fluoride, dissolved solids, aluminum, iron, and manganese exceeded EPA Secondary Maximum Contaminant Levels in some samples. Radon concentrations in some samples exceeded the alternative MCL proposed by the EPA. Molybdenum and boron concentrations in some samples exceeded EPA Health Advisory Levels. Water-quality measurements and concentrations also exceeded numerous Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WDEQ) groundwater standards. Physical characteristics and constituents that exceeded WDEQ Class I domestic groundwater standards in some samples were measurements of pH and concentrations of chloride, sulfate, dissolved solids, iron, manganese, boron, selenium, nitrite, and nitrate. Measurements of pH and concentrations of chloride, sulfate, dissolved solids, aluminum, iron, manganese, boron, and selenium exceeded WDEQ Class II agriculture groundwater standards in some samples. Measurements of pH and concentrations of sulfate, dissolved solids, aluminum, boron, and selenium exceeded WDEQ Class III livestock groundwater standards in some samples. The concentrations of dissolved solids in two samples exceeded the WDEQ Class IV industry groundwater standard. Measurements of pH and concentrations of dissolved solids, aluminum, iron, manganese, and selenium exceeded WDEQ Class special (A) fish and aquatic life groundwater standards in some samples. Stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen measured in water samples were compared to the Global Meteoric Water Line and Local Meteoric Water Lines. Results indicated that recharge to all of the wells was derived from precipitation and that the water has undergone some fractionation, possibly because of evaporation. Concentrations of organic compounds did not exceed any State or Federal water-quality standards. Few volatile organic compounds were detected in samples, whereas gasoline range organics, diesel range organics, and methane were detected most frequently. Concentrations of wastewater compounds did not exceed any State or Federal water-quality standards. The compounds N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), benzophenone, and phenanthrene were detected most frequently. Bacteria samples were collected, processed, incubated, and enumerated in the field or at the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center. Total coliforms and Escherichia coli were detected in some samples.

Wyoming↗
USGS1916

Guidebook of the western United States: Part C - The Santa Fe route, with a side trip to Grand Canyon of the Colorado

The United States of America comprise an area so vast in extent and so diverse in natural features as well as in characters due to human agency that the American citizen who knows thoroughly his own country must have traveled widely and observed wisely. To 'know America first' is a patriotic obligation, but to meet this obligation the railroad traveler needs to have his eyes directed toward the more important or essential things within his field of vision and then to have much that he sees explained by what is unseen in the swift passage of the train. Indeed, many things that attract his attention are inexplicable except as the story of the past is available to enable him to interpret the present. Herein lie the value and the charm of history, whether human or geologic. The present stimulus given to travel in the home country will encourage many thousands of Americans to study geography at first hand. To make this study most profitable the traveler needs a handbook that will answer the questions that come to his mind so readily along the way. Furthermore, the aim of such a guide should be to stimulate the eye in the selection of the essentials in the scene that so rapidly unfolds itself in the crossing of the continent. In recognition of the opportunity afforded in 1915 to render service of this kind to an unusually large number of American citizens, as well as to visitors from other countries, the United States Geological Survey has prepared a series of guidebooks covering four of the older railroad routes west of the Mississippi. These books are educational in purpose, but the method adopted is to entertain the traveler by making more interesting what he sees from the car window. The plan of the series is to present authoritative information that may enable the reader to realize adequately the scenic and material resources of the region he is traversing, to comprehend correctly the basis of its development, and above all to appreciate keenly the real value of the country he looks out upon, not as so many square miles of territory represented on the map in a railroad folder by meaningless spaces, but rather as land - real estate, if you please - varying widely in present appearance because differing largely in its history and characterized by even greater variation in values because possessing diversified natural resources. One region may be such as to afford a livelihood for only a pastoral people; another may present opportunity for intensive agriculture; still another may contain hidden stores of mineral wealth that may attract large industrial development; and taken together these varied resources afford the promise of long-continued prosperity for this or that State. Items of interest in civic development or references to significant epochs in the record of discovery and settlement may be interspersed with explanations of mountain and valley or statements of geologic history. In a broad way, the story of the West is a unit, and every chapter should be told in order to meet fully the needs of the tourist who aims to understand all that he sees. To such a traveler-reader this series of guidebooks is addressed. To this interpretation of our own country the United States Geological Survey brings the accumulated data of decades of pioneering investigation, and the present contribution is only one type of return to the public which has supported this scientific work under the Federal Government. In preparing the description of the country traversed by the Santa Fe Route the geographic and geologic information already published as well as unpublished material in the possession of the Geological Survey has been utilized, but to supplement this material Mr. Darton made a field examination of the entire route in 1914. Information has been furnished by Erasmus Haworth, J. E. Todd, and R. T. Hill, as well as by others whose writings are listed in the bibliography at the end of the text. Cooperation has been rendered by the United States Reclamation Service and by bureaus of the Department of Agriculture. Railroad officials and other citizens have also generously given their aid, and other members of the Survey have freely cooperated in the work. For the purpose of furnishing the traveler with a graphic presentation of each part of his route, the accompanying maps, 25 sheets in all, have been prepared, with a degree of accuracy probably never bsfore attained in a guidebook, aiid their arrangement has been planned to meet the convenience of the reader. The special topographic surveys necessary to complete these maps of the route were made by W. O. Tufts.

Bulletin↗
USGS2013

Estimation of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in streams of the Middle Columbia River Basin (Oregon, Washington, and Idaho) using SPARROW models, with emphasis on the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Related Regressions on Watershed attributes) was used to predict total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads and yields for the Middle Columbia River Basin in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. The new models build on recently published models for the entire Pacific Northwest, and provide revised load predictions for the arid interior of the region by restricting the modeling domain and recalibrating the models. Results from the new TN and TP models are provided for the entire region, and discussed with special emphasis on the Yakima River Basin, Washington. In most catchments of the Yakima River Basin, the TN and TP in streams is from natural sources, specifically nitrogen fixation in forests (TN) and weathering and erosion of geologic materials (TP). The natural nutrient sources are overshadowed by anthropogenic sources of TN and TP in highly agricultural and urbanized catchments; downstream of the city of Yakima, most of the load in the Yakima River is derived from anthropogenic sources. Yields of TN and TP from catchments with nearly uniform land use were compared with other yield values and export coefficients published in the scientific literature, and generally were in agreement. The median yield of TN was greatest in catchments dominated by agricultural land and smallest in catchments dominated by grass and scrub land. The median yield of TP was greatest in catchments dominated by forest land, but the largest yields (90th percentile) of TP were from agricultural catchments. As with TN, the smallest TP yields were from catchments dominated by grass and scrub land.

Idaho;Oregon;Washington↗
USGS2014

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, April-May, 2013

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, in the vicinity of 10 bridges at 9 highway crossings of the Missouri River between Lexington and Washington, Missouri, from April 22 through May 2, 2013. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches ranging from 1,640 to 1,840 feet longitudinally and extending laterally across the active channel between banks and spur dikes in the Missouri River during low- to moderate-flow conditions. These bathymetric surveys indicate the channel conditions at the time of the surveys and provide characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in the development of predictive guidelines or equations for scour holes. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation to assess the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every pier that was in water, except those at the edge of water or in very shallow water (less than about 6 feet). Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except at piers on channel banks, near or embedded in lateral or longitudinal spur dikes, and on exposed bedrock outcrops. Scour holes observed at the surveyed bridges were examined with respect to depth and shape. Although exposure of parts of foundational support elements was observed at several piers, at most sites the exposure likely can be considered minimal compared to the overall substructure that remains buried in channel-bed material; however, there were several notable exceptions where the bed material thickness between the bottom of the scour hole and bedrock was less than 6 feet. Such substantial exposure of usually buried substructural elements may warrant special observation in future flood events. Previous bathymetric surveys had been done at all of the sites in this study during the flood of 2011. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of this study generally indicate a consistent increase in the elevation of the bed and decrease in the size of scour holes at these sites, both likely caused by a substantial decrease in discharge and water-surface elevation compared to the 2011 surveys at most sites. However, multiple surveys at one of the sites indicate that the flow condition is not the sole variable in the determination of the size of scour holes at sites with a dual bridge configuration. Furthermore, another site had a smaller and shallower scour hole even though the discharge in this study was slightly greater than in 2011. Pier size, nose shape, and alignment to flow also had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed.

Missouri↗
USGS2012

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4°F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22°F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5°F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5°F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗
USGS1996

Water-quality assessment of the Trinity River Basin, Texas - Nutrients in two coastal prairie streams draining agricultural areas, 1994-95

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began nationwide implementation of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Long-term goals of NAWQA are to describe the status of and trends in the quality of a large, representative part of the Nation?s surface- and ground-water resources and to provide a sound, scientific understanding of the primary natural and human factors affecting the quality of these resources (Leahy and others, 1990). The Trinity River Basin in east-central Texas (fig. 1) was among the first 20 hydrologic areas, called study units, to be assessed by this program. The first intensive data-collection phase for the Trinity River Basin NAWQA began in March 1993 and ended in September 1995. Streams in the Trinity River Basin were assessed by sampling water, bed sediment, and tissue of biota and characterizing the aquatic communities and their habitat. Aquifers were assessed by sampling water from wells. The coastal prairie is a small part of the Trinity River Basin, but it is environmentally important because of its proximity to Galveston Bay and the extensive use of agricultural chemicals on many irrigated farms. Galveston Bay (fig. 1) was selected by Congress as an estuary of national significance and was included on a priority list for the National Estuary Program. The Trinity River is especially important because its watershed dominates the total Galveston Bay drainage area and because its flow contributes substantial amounts of freshwater and water-quality constituents to the bay. Historically, measurements of the quantity and quality of water entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River Basin have been made using data from a station about 113 kilometers (70 miles) upstream from Trinity Bay, an inlet bay to Galveston Bay. With a focused objective of providing additional water-quality information in the intervening coastal prairie area and an overall objective of improving the understanding of the relations between farming practices and stream quality in the Trinity River Basin, a special study was conducted. This report provides a description of the occurrence and concentrations of nutrients in two streams in this intervening area. An earlier report by Brown (1996) describes the occurrence and concentrations of pesticides in these two streams. An overall analysis of nutrient data collected during 1974?91 in the Trinity River Basin is given by Van Metre and Reutter (1995).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Foreword The 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done. With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk. The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the interconnectedness of infrastructure, society, and our economy. How would this earthquake scenario, striking close to Silicon Valley, impact our interconnected world in ways and at a scale we have not experienced in any previous domestic earthquake? The area of present-day Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara Counties contended with a magnitude-6.8 earthquake in 1868 on the Hayward Fault. Although sparsely populated then, about 30 people were killed and extensive property damage resulted. The question of what an earthquake like that would do today has been examined before and is now revisited in the HayWired scenario. Scientists have documented a series of prehistoric earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and are confident that the threat of a future earthquake, like that modeled in the HayWired scenario, is real and could happen at any time. The team assembled to build this scenario has brought innovative new approaches to examining the natural hazards, impacts, and consequences of such an event. Such an earthquake would also be accompanied by widespread liquefaction and landslides, which are treated in greater detail than ever before. The team also considers how the now-prototype ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system could provide useful public alerts and automatic actions. Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013 and accompanying data releases are the products of an effort led by the USGS, but this body of work was created through the combined efforts of a large team including partners who have come together to form the HayWired Coalition (see chapter A). Use of the HayWired scenario has already begun. More than a full year of intensive partner engagement, beginning in April 2017, is being directed toward producing the most in-depth look ever at the impacts and consequences of a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. With the HayWired scenario, our hope is to encourage and support the active ongoing engagement of the entire community of the San Francisco Bay region by providing the scientific, engineering, and economic and social science inputs for use in exercises and planning well into the future. As HayWired volumes are published, they will be made available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013 .

California↗
USGS2009

Pesticides in ground water in selected agricultural land-use areas and hydrogeologic settings in Pennsylvania, 2003-07

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture (PDA) as part of the Pennsylvania Pesticides and Ground Water Strategy (PPGWS). Monitoring data and extensive quality-assurance data on the occurrence of pesticides in ground water during 2003–07 are presented and evaluated; decreases in the land area used for agriculture and corresponding changes in the use of pesticides also are documented. In the Pennsylvania ground waters assessed since 2003, concentrations of pesticides did not exceed any maximum contaminant or health advisory levels established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; PPGWS actions are invoked by the PDA at fractions of these levels and were needed only in areas designated by the PDA for special ground-water protection. Previous investigations through 1998 of pesticides in Pennsylvania ground water identified land use, as a surrogate for pesticide use, and rock type of the aquifer combined with physiography as key hydrogeologic setting variables for understanding aquifer vulnerability to contamination and the common occurrence of atrazine and metolachlor in ground water. Of 20 major hydrogeologic settings in a framework established in 1999 for pesticide monitoring in Pennsylvania, 9 were identified as priorities for data collection in order to change the monitoring status from "inadequate" to "adequate" for the PPGWS. Agricultural and forested land-use areas are decreasing because of urban and suburban growth. In the nine hydrogeologic settings evaluated using 1992 and 2001 data, decreases of up to 12 percent for agricultural land and 10 percent for forested land corresponded to increases of up to 11 percent for urban land. Changes in agricultural pesticide use were computed from crop data. For example, from 1996 to 2004–05, atrazine use declined by about 15 percent to 1,314,000 lb/yr (pounds per year) and metolachlor use increased by about 20 percent to 895,000 lb/yr; these compounds are the two most-used agricultural pesticides statewide. In 2003–07, a baseline assessment of pesticides was conducted in five of nine hydrogeologic settings with inadequate monitoring data—the Blue Ridge crystalline and Triassic Lowland siliciclastic, Eastern Lake surficial, Devonian-Silurian carbonate, Great Valley siliciclastic, and Northeastern Glaciated surficial settings. Between 20 and 30 wells in each setting were monitored. Of the 126 wells sampled, 96 well-water samples were analyzed for at least 52 pesticide compounds at the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory (NWQL) using a method with a minimum reporting level (MRL) at or above 0.002 µg/L (micrograms per liter). Of the 96 well waters analyzed by NWQL, 43 had measureable concentrations of one or more pesticides. Atrazine and (or) deethylatrazine (CIAT), a degradation product of atrazine, were reported at or above the MRL in 39 of the 43 well waters. Neither atrazine nor CIAT were reported at concentrations exceeding 0.10 µg/L; all measured concentrations in these five settings were below PPGWS action levels. Metolachlor was present in 7 of the 43 well waters with measureable concentrations of 1 or more pesticides; however, concentrations were below the MRL. The other 30 samples (10 of 20 wells in the Blue Ridge crystalline and Triassic Lowland siliciclastic setting and all 20 wells in the Eastern Lake surficial setting) were analyzed for at least 19 pesticide compounds at the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Laboratory (PADEPL); the PADEPL reported no concentrations of pesticides at or above an MRL of 0.10 µg/L. Statistical tests using the NWQL analytical results showed correlations between pesticide occurrence and two indicators of water-quality degradation—the occurrence of total coliform bacteria and nitrate concentration. A 2 × 2 contingency-table test indicated a relation between presence or absence of atrazine or metolachlor and presence or absence of bacteria only for the 10 wells representing the Blue Ridge crystalline and Triassic Lowland siliciclastic setting. Results of Spearman’s rank test showed strong positive correlations in the Devonian-Silurian carbonate setting between 1) the number of pesticides above the MRLs and nitrate concentration, and 2) concentrations of atrazine and nitrate. Atrazine concentration and nitrate concentration also showed a statistically significant positive correlation in the Great Valley siliciclastic setting. An additional component of baseline monitoring was to evaluate changes in pesticide concentration in water from wells representing hydrogeologic settings most vulnerable to contamination from pesticides. In 2003, 16 wells originally sampled in the 1990s were resampled—4 each in the Appalachian Mountain carbonate, Triassic Lowland siliciclastic, Great Valley carbonate, and Piedmont carbonate settings. Nine of these wells, where pesticide concentrations from 1993 and 2003 were analyzed at the NWQL, were chosen for a paired-sample analysis using concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor. A statistically significant decrease in atrazine concentration was identified using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test (p = 0.004); significant temporal changes in metolachlor concentrations were not observed (p = 0.625). Monitoring in three areas of special ground-water protection, where selected pesticide concentrations in well water were at or above the PPGWS action levels, was done at wells BE 1370 (Berks County, Oley Township), BA 437 (Blair County, North Woodbury Township), and LN 1842 (Lancaster County, Earl Township). Co-occurrence of pesticide-degradation products with parent compounds was documented for the first time in ground-water samples collected from these three wells. Degradation products of atrazine, cyanazine, acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor were commonly at larger concentrations than the parent compound in the same water sample. Pesticide occurrence in water from wells neighboring the hot-spot wells was highly variable; however, the same sets of pesticide compounds that were present in wells BA 437, BE 1370, and LN 1842 were present to some degree in water from neighboring wells. To evaluate temporal changes in concentration, nonparametric statistical tests were used to determine overall and seasonal monotonic trends. Concentrations of alachlor, atrazine, metolachlor, and nitrate were examined using the 5-year (2003–07) and the long-term data from wells BA 437 and LN 1842 (1996–2007 and 1995–2007, respectively), and the long-term data for well BE 1370 (1998–2007); results showed either downward trends or no trends. Trends in acetochlor concentrations were tested only at well LN 1842 using the 5-year data; no trends were observed. Homogeneity of trend tests indicated statistically significant downward concentration trends in the long-term data were due to seasonal trends as follows: BA 437—alachlor and atrazine (summer); BE 1370—atrazine and metolachlor (winter) and alachlor (winter and spring); LN 1842—alachlor (summer and fall) and atrazine (spring and fall).

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2022

What common-garden experiments tell us about climate responses in plants

Common garden experiments are indoor or outdoor plantings of species or populations collected from multiple distinct geographic locations, grown together under shared conditions. These experiments examine a range of questions for theory and application using a variety of methods for analysis. The eight papers of this special feature comprise a cross section of contemporary approaches, summarized and synthesized here by what they tell us about the relationships between climate-related trait spectra and fitness optima. Four of the eight papers are based on field experiments in prairie, desert, Mediterranean and boreal biomes. Representative of many common garden experiments, these experiments reveal consistent evidence of traits varying with population climate provenance, but evidence of a tradeoff between growth and tolerance traits or of consistent fitness optimization at home is scant, in contrast to trait theory. Two synthesis papers highlight dominant patterns of trait divergence, including for an exotic invasive species. One theoretical paper warned that unknown kinship relationships between populations can result in the misidentification of adaptive trait divergence. A third synthesis paper formulated novel and ambitious goals for common-garden studies through including measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. The featured papers discuss multiple avenues for improving common garden studies. Genomic analysis, together with the quantification of kinship relationships, will continue to reveal the influence of environmental drivers on gene selection. Measuring a more complete set of fitness traits, especially for traits related to regeneration, will permit the development of projection models to explicitly link trait spectra, climate patterns and fitness consequences. More standardized data reporting will additionally improve abilities to synthesize findings across experiments. Testing population performance in competition with other species will produce more robust fitness comparisons between genotypes, especially for slower-growing genotypes in higher-resource environments. Adding gardens in and beyond climatic edge locations will furthermore strengthen the understanding of population failure and species exclusion. Finally, there is unrealized potential in adding ecosystem-level observations to common-garden studies that will enhance integrative analysis across scales of biological organization and scientific domains. Synthesis . With novel, creative designs, data integration and synthesis, common garden experiments will continue to advance the understanding of trait ensembles interacting with climate across scales of biological organization, provide pivotal data for global change models and guide ecological applications such as restoration of habitats for rare and climate sensitive species.

Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2006

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Sixth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop, Denver, Colorado, April 24-28, 2006

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Sixth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop April 24 - 28, 2006, at the Denver Federal Center in Denver, Colorado, provides a unique opportunity for multi-disciplinary Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and associated scientific professionals to share, learn, present, and discuss a wide variety of geospatial-related topics. Information is exchanged through a series of plenary sessions, hands-on technical workshops, user and commercial vendor demonstrations, lecture and poster sessions, and specialty meetings. Workshop attendance is limited to Department of Interior (DOI) and USGS employees and contractors; however, plenary, hands-on, and lecture sessions have presenters from other Federal agencies, numerous commercial vendors, universities, and several consortia. Over 175 participants are expected to attend the Workshop. Several prominent speakers are featured at this Workshop. Monday evening Star Guest Speaker and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Astronaut Captain Dominic Gorie will talk about his experiences as a veteran of three space flights and over 32 days in space, including the NASA Space Shuttle Radar Topography Mission that mapped more than 47 million miles of the Earth's land surface. Selected as an astronaut candidate by NASA in December 1994, Captain Gorie is currently Chief of the Astronaut Shuttle Branch. Monday evening also features a town hall meeting with Geographic Information Office (GIO) leaders Karen Siderelis, Kevin Gallagher, Bob Pierce, Steve Guptill, Mark DeMulder, John Mahoney, and Mark Negri, who will discuss changes and activities within the GIO in an open discussion format. Tuesday plenary sessions feature keynote speaker Dr. P. Patrick Leahy, Acting USGS Director. Dr. Leahy holds undergraduate and graduate degrees in geology (1968) and geophysics (1970) from Boston College. In 1979, he received his doctorate in geology from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, where he specialized in regional ground-water studies and hydraulics. Dr. Leahy has been with the USGS since 1974, and has held various technical and managerial positions, including Associate Director for Geology and Chief of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Dr. Leahy will be discussing a broad range of topics including Bureau accomplishments, initiatives, and budgets. The purpose of this proceedings volume is to serve as an activity reference for Workshop attendees as well as an archive of technical abstracts submitted, presented, and discussed at the Workshop. Author, co-author, and presenter names, affiliations, and contact information are listed with presentation titles along with submitted abstracts. Some hands-on sessions are offered twice. In these instances, abstracts submitted for publication are presented in the proceedings on both days they are offered. All acronyms used in these proceedings are explained in the text of each abstract. The term 'ArcGIS' refers to an integrated collection of GIS software products produced by Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI).

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Estimated groundwater recharge for mid-century and end-of-century climate projections, Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i, Maui, and the Island of Hawai‘i

Demand for freshwater in the State of Hawaiʻi is expected to increase by roughly 13 percent from 2020 to 2035. Groundwater availability in Hawaiʻi is affected by a number of factors, including land cover, rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration, and climate change. To evaluate the availability of fresh groundwater under projected future-climate conditions, estimates of groundwater recharge are needed. A water-budget model with a daily computation interval was used to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Maui, and the Island of Hawaiʻi for recent climate conditions and three future-climate scenarios. Climate conditions from 1978 to 2007 were used as the reference period for recent climate conditions on each island. The three future-climate scenarios were developed using available high-resolution downscaled climate projections that include (1) a mid-century scenario using projected rainfall conditions for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario during 2041–71 with a total radiative forcing of 8.5 watts per square meter by the year 2100 (RCP8.5 2041–71 scenario), (2) a dry-climate scenario using projected rainfall conditions for the RCP8.5 scenario during 2071–99, and (3) a wet-climate scenario using projected rainfall conditions for the “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” A1B scenario during 2080–99 for Maui, the RCP4.5 scenario during 2080–99 for Kauaʻi, Lānaʻi, and the Island of Hawaiʻi, and the RCP8.5 scenario during 2080–99 for Oʻahu and Molokaʻi. An additional drought scenario was added for Lānaʻi to assess the effect of extreme drought conditions during 2008–12 on groundwater recharge. All scenarios used 2020 land cover. Mean annual groundwater recharge is estimated to decrease between 5 and 55 percent on all six islands in this study for the mid-century and dry-climate scenarios relative to the reference-period recharge. Recharge is estimated to increase for Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and Maui between 2 and 43 percent and decrease for the Island of Hawaiʻi by about 4 percent for the wet-climate scenario. Comparing the mid-century and dry-climate scenarios, all 110 aquifer systems (management areas defined by the State of Hawaiʻi Commission on Water Resource Management) from all six islands show similar direction in drying (104 aquifer systems) or wetting (6 aquifer systems) changes for recharge. However, among the three future scenarios, only 35 of 110 aquifer systems show similar direction in drying (30 aquifer systems) or wetting (5 aquifer systems) changes for recharge.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Guidelines for producing integrated 210Pb and 14C age-models

Accurate reconstructions of past environmental changes are crucial in paleoecological research and require reliable chronologies of sedimentary archives. Establishing robust age-models and obtaining the most appropriate proxies for analysis is a complex scientific endeavor, requiring extensive resources and collaboration among specialists, including radiochronologists. Radiometric dating methods, such as 210 Pb and radiocarbon ( 14 C), are frequently employed to establish chronologies in aquatic sedimentary deposits and peat bogs. In this study, we review key aspects of sampling, analysis, and the principles underlying 210 Pb and 14 C age-models, focusing on methods for developing robust joint chronologies for paleoenvironmental research. Drawing largely from the authors' experiences and group discussions during and after a scientific workshop in 2022, we discuss important considerations for site selection, sampling strategies, and radiometric dating to construct integrated 210 Pb and 14 C age-models. Using expert consensus, this group – called Paleostats – aims to provide a set of best practices for other geochronologists with this methods paper. Among our conclusions, we emphasize the importance of accounting for site-specific factors such as prior information on sedimentation rates to establish appropriate sampling and analytical strategies. The use of appropriate coring devices can minimize disturbance to sediments and ensure the core surface remains intact and preserved until sectioning. Where excess 210 Pb is expected, sectioning at intervals of ≤1 cm provides an adequate sampling resolution for 210 Pb dating. Exceptions are possible, allowing for ~2–3 cm sections in areas with confirmed high sedimentation rates (e.g., > 1 cm yr −1 ). Recovering deeper core sections for 14 C dating with sufficient overlap allows for accounting errors in depth estimates made in the field. Special attention is advised during time intervals where validation proxies, such as the human-made radionuclides 137 Cs or post-bomb 14 C, are expected, and to determine the depth of secular equilibrium between 210 Pb and 226 Ra. Radiocarbon analyses are commonly performed by accelerator mass spectrometry, and age models are constructed mainly using Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques (e.g., Bacon ). A Bayesian approach ( Plum ) is now available for producing 210 Pb age-models, which infers the 210 Pb ex flux, eliminates the need for selecting an equilibrium depth, and allows dating cores with incomplete 210 Pb ex inventory. Plum offers improved chronologies by integrating raw 210 Pb and 14 C data, and these age-models can be enriched with other dating methodologies, such as identifying tephras and other well-recorded historical events. Harmonized reporting would contribute to making radiometric age-models reproducible, which would benefit from an international effort. Using 210 Pb and 14 C to produce integrated age-models may yield better insights into the interplay between natural and recent anthropogenic forcings on ecosystems. This can enhance our understanding of environmental processes and their impacts on climate change, ultimately supporting science-based assessments and decisions.

Earth-Science Reviews↗
USGS2020

Adjusted geomagnetic data—Theoretical basis and validation

Adjusted geomagnetic data are magnetometer measurements with provisional correction factors applied such that vector quantities are oriented in a local Cartesian frame in which the X axis points north, the Y axis points east, and the Z axis points down. These correction factors are determined from so-called absolute measurements, which are “ground truth” observations made in the field using specialized magnetometers and survey equipment that are (nearly) colocated with the automated and continuously running magnetic measurement instrumentation. Correction factors can be substantial, up to hundreds of nanoTeslas, depending on the geologic and geomagnetic characteristics of the observatory site. They also tend to evolve over time because of instrument response instability and changing site characteristics. Historically, correction factors were determined offline, up to 1 year or more post-measurement, and applied to raw measurements to produce “Definitive” data for scientific analysis. Growing demand for corrected real-time geomagnetic data to better support space weather operations motivated development of an “Adjusted” geomagnetic data product. Modern computational tools, and some notable practical concerns, dictated a transition to affine transformations in lieu of more traditional baseline corrections, as well as a calibration parameter estimation algorithm that is more robust and statistically optimal, and therefore better suited for automated and unsupervised execution. A theoretical basis for this algorithm is presented, along with a demonstration and validation based on a comparison of results obtained with traditional techniques. Discrepancies between Definitive corrected data and near real-time Adjusted data obtained using affine transformations are minimal, generally much less than 5 nanoTeslas per vector component, and less than 1 nanoTesla for the total field magnitude, which satisfies International Real-Time Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET) standards.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2005

Water quality, hydrology, and phosphorus loading to Little St. Germain Lake, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of winter aeration and ground-water inputs

Little St. Germain Lake is a 978-acre, multibasin lake in Vilas County, Wisconsin. In the interest of protecting and improving the water quality of the lake, the Little St. Germain Lake District initiated several cooperative studies with the U.S. Geological Survey between 1991 and 2004 to (1) document the water quality and the extent of winter anoxia in the lake, (2) evaluate the success of aerators at eliminating winter anoxia, (3) develop water and nutrient budgets for the lake, and (4) assess how the water quality of the lake should respond to changes in phosphorus loading. This report presents the results of these cooperative studies with special emphasis on the water quality in the lake since 2000, including the effects of winter aeration and the importance of ground-water contributions of phosphorus to the productivity of the lake. Measurements collected during these studies indicate that the water quality in Little St. Germain Lake was consistently different among basins. The West Bay consistently had the best water quality, the South Bay had intermediate water quality, and the East and Upper East Bays consistently had the worst water quality. The water quality in each of the basins was relatively stable from 1991 to 2000; however, since 2001, the West Bay has changed from oligotrophic to mesotrophic, the South Bay has changed from mesotrophic to eutrophic, and the East and Upper East Bays have changed from eutrophic to eutrophic/hypereutrophic. Winter anoxia frequently occurred throughout most of the lake, except in the West Bay and just below the ice in the East Bay. To eliminate winter anoxia, coarse-bubble line aerators were installed and operated in the Upper East, East, and South Bays. The aerators in the Upper East and South Bays were very successful at eliminating winter anoxia; however, the aerator in the East Bay had little impact on the dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout its basin. Detailed water and phosphorus budgets computed for the lake indicated that inflow from Muskellunge Creek was the major source of phosphorus to the lake and that ground water was the secondary source. Results from a detailed ground-water-flow model indicated that ground water flows into the lake from all sides, except the south sides of the West and Second South Bays. Most of the phosphorus appears to come from natural sources, such as ground water and surface water flowing through relatively undeveloped areas surrounding Little St. Germain Lake and Muskellunge Lake. Several empirical water-quality models were used to simulate how the East and Upper East Bays of the lake should respond to reductions in phosphorus loading from Muskellunge Creek. Simulation results indicated that reductions in tributary loading could improve the water quality of the East and Upper East Bays. Improving the water quality of these bays would also improve the water quality of the South and Second South Bays because of the flow of water through the lake. However, even with phosphorus loading from Muskellunge Creek completely eliminated, most of the lake would remain borderline mesotrophic/eutrophic because of the contributions of phosphorus from ground water.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2014

Status and understanding of groundwater quality in the South Coast Interior groundwater basins, 2008: California GAMA Priority Basin Project

Groundwater quality in the approximately 653-square-mile (1,691-square-kilometer) South Coast Interior Basins (SCI) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The South Coast Interior Basins study unit contains eight priority groundwater basins grouped into three study areas, Livermore, Gilroy, and Cuyama, in the Southern Coast Ranges hydrogeologic province. The GAMA Priority Basin Project is being conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The GAMA South Coast Interior Basins study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated (raw) groundwater quality within the primary aquifer system, as well as a statistically consistent basis for comparing water quality between basins. The assessment was based on water-quality and ancillary data collected by the USGS from 50 wells in 2008 and on water-quality data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database. The primary aquifer system was defined by the depth intervals of the wells listed in the CDPH database for the SCI study unit. The quality of groundwater in the primary aquifer system may be different from that in the shallower or deeper water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. The first component of this study, the status of the current quality of the groundwater resource, was assessed by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), pesticides, and naturally occurring inorganic constituents, such as trace elements and minor ions. This status assessment is intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources within the primary aquifer system of the SCI study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers by water purveyors. Relative-concentrations (sample concentration divided by the health- or aesthetic-based benchmark concentration) were used for evaluating groundwater quality for those constituents that have Federal or California regulatory or non-regulatory benchmarks for drinking-water quality. A relative-concentration greater than 1.0 indicates a concentration greater than a benchmark, and a relative-concentration less than or equal to 1.0 indicates a concentration equal to or less than a benchmark. Relative-concentrations of organic constituents and special-interest constituents were classified as “high” (relative-concentration greater than 1.0), “moderate” (relative-concentration greater than 0.1 and less than or equal to 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration less than or equal to 0.1). Relative-concentrations of inorganic constituents were classified as “high” (relative-concentration greater than 1.0), “moderate” (relative-concentration greater than 0.5 and less than or equal to 1.0), or “low” (relative-concentration less than or equal to 0.5). Aquifer-scale proportion was used as the primary metric in the status assessment for evaluating regional-scale groundwater quality. High aquifer-scale proportion is defined as the percentage of the area of the primary aquifer system with a relative-concentration greater than 1.0 for a particular constituent or class of constituents; percentage is based on an areal rather than a volumetric basis. Moderate and low aquifer-scale proportions were defined as the areal percentage of the primary aquifer system with moderate and low relative-concentrations, respectively. Two statistical approaches—grid-based and spatially weighted—were used to evaluate aquifer-scale proportions for individual constituents and classes of constituents. Grid-based and spatially weighted estimates were comparable in the SCI study unit (within 90-percent confidence intervals). Inorganic constituents (one or more) with health-based benchmarks were detected at high relative-concentrations in 29 percent of the primary aquifer system, at moderate relative-concentrations in 37 percent, and at low relative-concentrations in 34 percent. High aquifer-scale proportions of inorganic constituents primarily reflected high aquifer-scale proportions of nitrate (14 percent), boron (8.6 percent), molybdenum (8.6 percent), and arsenic (5.7 percent). In contrast, the relative-concentrations of organic constituents (one or more) were high in 1.6 percent, moderate in 2.0 percent, and low or not detected in 96 percent of the primary aquifer system. Of the 207 organic and special-interest constituents analyzed for, 15 constituents were detected. Perchlorate was found at moderate relative-concentrations in 34 percent of the aquifer. Two organic constituents were frequently detected (in greater than 10 percent of samples): the trihalomethane chloroform and the herbicide simazine. The second component of this study, the understanding assessment, identified natural and human factors that may have affected groundwater quality by evaluating land use, physical characteristics of the wells, and geochemical conditions of the aquifer. This evaluation was done by using statistical tests of correlations between these potential explanatory factors and water-quality data. Concentrations of arsenic, molybdenum, and manganese were generally greater in anoxic and pre-modern groundwater than other groundwater. In contrast, concentrations of nitrate and perchlorate were significantly higher in oxic and modern groundwater. Concentrations of simazine were greater in modern than pre-modern groundwater. Chloroform detections were positively correlated with greater urban land use. Boron concentrations and chloroform detections were higher in the Livermore study area than in the other study areas of the SCI; total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations were greater in the Cuyama study area.

California↗
USGS1907

Pollution of Illinois and Mississippi Rivers by Chicago sewage, a digest of the testimony taken in the case of the State of Missouri v. the State of Illinois and the Sanitary District of Chicago

The testimony taken in the suit of the State of Missouri against the State of Illinois and the sanitary district of Chicago comprises the best symposium on river pollution, its biological and chemical aspects, and its general and special sanitary significance that has ever been assembled. The contentions of both parties to the suit' are supported by the most eminently qualified men in the United States. The evidence presented and the discussions recorded are therefore of unique importance. The final record of testimony occupies 8,000 printed pages, much of which is irrelevant. This digest of testimony is the result of an attempt to recover the valuable material and present it in concise form. A consistent endeavor has been made by the reviewer to eliminate all personal opinions with reference to the issue and to make an impartial presentation of so much of the testimony as in his opinion appears to be relevant and of scientific importance. It will be well to remember in this connection that any digest of so large a volume of testimony must be the result of a final exercise of personal opinion by the reviewer as to those parts which may best be excluded. Naturally opinions will differ on this point; therefore it will be strange if many of those familiar with the case do not find that certain portions of testimony which they consider most important are passed over in this digest without reference. Controversies between counsel, objections to the admission of testimony, legal technicalities and quibbles, badgering cross-examination, and in general all the testimony introduced for purposes of mere corroboration have been disregarded. The object has been to present a faithful statement of the scientific phases of the testimony to the exclusion, if need be, of the legal aspect of the case.

Illinois, Missouri↗
USGS2018

Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation-management strategies in Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park

Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant-species habitats will change over the next century in order to manage these resources effectively. This issue is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO), where currently managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitats in the future as the climate changes. Expanding invasive-species distributions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective of this project was to combine recent climate-modeling efforts for the state of Hawai‘i with existing models of plant-species distribution in order to forecast suitable habitat ranges under future climate conditions derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) global circulation model that was dynamically downscaled for the Hawaiian Islands by using the Hawai‘i Regional Climate Model (HRCM). The HRCM uses the A1B emission scenario (a median future climate projection) from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). On the basis of this model, maps showing projected plant-species ranges were generated for four years as snapshots in time (2000, 2040, 2070, 2090) and for three different trajectories of climate change (gradual, linear, rapid) between the present and future. We mapped probabilistic surfaces of suitable habitat for 39 plant species (both native and alien [nonnative]) identified as being of interest to HAVO resource managers. We displayed these surfaces in terms of change relative to present conditions, whether the range of a given plant species was expected to contract, expand, or remain the same in the future. Within HAVO, approximately two-thirds (18 of 29) of the modeled native plant species were projected to contract in range, whereas one-third (11 of 29) were projected to increase. Most of the HAVO SEAs were projected to lose most of the native plant species modeled. Within HAVO, all alien plant species except Lantana camara were projected to contract in range within the park; this trend was observed in most SEAs, including those at low, middle, and high elevations. Congruence was good in the “current” (2000) distribution of plant-species richness and SEA configurations; however, the congruence between species-richness hotspots and SEAs diminished by the projected “end-of-century” (2090) distribution. Over time, the projected species-richness hotspots increasingly occurred outside of the currently configured SEA boundaries.

Hawai'i↗