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Linking urbanization to the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) for stream ecosystems in the Northeastern United States using a Bayesian network approach

Urban development alters important physical, chemical, and biological processes that define urban stream ecosystems. An approach was developed for quantifying the effects of these processes on aquatic biota, and then linking those effects to endpoints that can be used for environmental management. These complex, interacting systems are challenging to model from a scientific standpoint. A desirable model clearly shows the system, simulates the interactions, and ultimately predicts results of management actions. Traditional regression techniques that calculate empirical relations between pairs of environmental factors do not capture the interconnected web of multiple stressors, but urban development effects are not yet understood at the detailed scales required to make mechanistic modeling approaches feasible. Therefore, in contrast to a fully deterministic or fully statistical modeling approach, a Bayesian network model provides a hybrid approach that can be used to represent known general associations between variables while acknowledging uncertainty in predicted outcomes. It does so by quantifying an expert-elicited network of probabilistic relations between variables. Advantages of this modeling approach include (1) flexibility in accommodating many model specifications and information types; (2) efficiency in storing and manipulating complex information, and to parameterize; and (3) transparency in describing the relations using nodes and arrows and in describing uncertainties with discrete probability distributions for each variable. In realization of the aforementioned advantages, a Bayesian network model was constructed to characterize the effect of urban development on aquatic macroinvertebrate stream communities through three simultaneous, interacting ecological pathways affecting stream hydrology, habitat, and water quality across watersheds in the Northeastern United States. This model incorporates both empirical data and expert knowledge to calculate the probabilities of attaining desired aquatic ecosystem conditions under different urban stress levels, environmental conditions, and management options. Ecosystem conditions are characterized in terms of standardized Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) management endpoints. This approach to evaluating urban development-induced perturbations in watersheds integrates statistical and mechanistic perspectives, different information sources, and several ecological processes into a comprehensive description of the system that can be used to support decision making. The completed model can be used to infer which management actions would lead to the highest likelihood of desired BCG tier achievement. For example, if best management practices (BMP) were implemented in a highly urbanized watershed to reduce flashiness to medium levels and specific conductance to low levels, the stream would have a 70-percent chance of achieving BCG Tier 3 or better, relative to a 24-percent achievement likelihood for unmanaged high urban land cover. Results are reported probabilistically to account for modeling uncertainty that is inherent in sources such as natural variability and model simplification error.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Managing effects of drought and other water resource challenges in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

This is a Cooperator Report. As such, there is no specific abstract. The physical, ecological, and social environments of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States are extremely diverse. Alaska ranges from the Arctic Ocean and the very cold, dry environments of the North Slope to the cool and very rainy coastal North Pacific region of Southeast Alaska. Most precipitation falls as snow at higher elevations. In Arctic Alaska, average annual temperature is 14.6 F, and average annual precipitation is 11 inches. By contrast, in Southeast Alaska, average annual temperature is 35.8 F, and annual average precipitation is 143 inches. The PNW, defined here as Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, ranges from the Pacific Coast (annual precipitation of 200 inches) to interior semi-arid regions (annual precipitation of 8 inches). Precipitation patterns in the PNW are strongly governed by orographic phenomena, with high, persistent snowpack in the higher mountains (e.g., record annual snowfall of 1,130 in at Mount Baker, Washington in 1999-2000). Ecosystems in the PNW include productive temperate coniferous forests near the Pacific coast and along the (wet) west slope of the Cascade Range, less productive mixed-conifer forest along the (dry) east slope of the Cascades and in interior mountain ranges, and sagebrush-steppe and shrublands at lower elevations in much of the interior and mountain valleys. Large rivers and thousands of smaller tributaries form an extensive network of riparian, wetland, and estuarine systems that provide both critical hydrologic function and biological diversity at broad and fine spatial scales. Although Alaska and the Pacific Northwest differ in important physical, ecological, and social features, the importance of natural resources is evident in both regions. Water is important for wildlife and people. Water provides critical habitat for salmon, which are culturally and economically valuable species. Timber production has declined in recent decades. Recreation has emerged as a major revenue source.

Alaska, Oregon, Washington↗

Magma supply to Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, from inception to now: Historical perspective, current state of knowledge, and future challenges

Meticulous field observations are a common underpinning of two landmark studies conducted by Don Swanson dealing with the rate at which magma is supplied to Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. The first combined effusion rate and ground deformation observations to show that the supply rate to Kīlauea was constant at ~0.11 km 3 /yr during three sustained eruptions from 1952 to 1971, a quiescent period at neighboring Mauna Loa volcano. This rate was also interpreted as the steady supply rate from the mantle to both volcanoes combined throughout historical time. The second breakthrough involved field evidence that activity at Kīlauea alternates between dominantly effusive and explosive styles over time scales of several centuries, and that the magma supply rate during explosive periods is only 1%-2% of the rate during effusive periods. For the historical period, several later studies concluded that the supply rate to Kīlauea has varied by as much as an order of magnitude, contrary to Swanson’s ­earlier suggestion. All such estimates are fraught with uncertainty, given the poorly known amount of magma stored within the volcano’s rift zones as a function of time—an enduring problem and active research topic. Nonetheless, Swanson’s original work remains an important touchstone that spurred many subsequent investigations and refinements. For example, there is strong evidence that Kīlauea experienced a surge in magma supply during 2003–2007 that exceeded the historical average by as much as a factor of two, and that the surge was followed by a comparable lull before the supply rate returned to “normal” by 2016. There is also evidence for supply-rate variations of similar magnitude during the latter part of the twentieth century and possibly earlier, subject to the aforementioned uncertainty in rift-zone storage. The extent to which variations in the magma supply to Kīlauea can be attributed to partitioning between Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, a long-debated topic, remains uncertain. Since Kilauea’s inception, the net magma supply to the volcano (and also to Lō‘ihi Seamount, since it began growing) has increased, while Mauna Loa’s growth rate has slowed, suggesting that the volcanoes compete for the same magma supply. However, geochemical differences between lavas erupted at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa indicate that they do not share a homogeneous mantle source or common lithospheric magma plumbing system. Both ideas might be correct; i.e., Kīlauea and Mauna Loa magmas may be sourced in differing portions of the same melt accumulation zone and ascend through different crustal pathways, but those pathways interact through stress or pressure changes that modulate the supply to each volcano. Currently, magma supply-rate estimates are facilitated by comprehensive imaging of surface deformation and topographic change coupled with measurements of gas emissions. Physics-based models are being developed within a probabilistic framework to provide rigorous estimates of model parameters, including magma supply rate, and their uncertainties. Further refinement will require intensive multiparameter observations of the entire magmatic system—from source to surface and above, and from the volcanoes’ summits to their submerged lower flanks—in order to account fully for a complex magma budget.

Hawai‘i↗

The Pajarito Plateau: A bibliography

This bibliography is the result of two initially independent projects. As the consulting archaeologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Charlie R. Steen collected entries at the suggestion of the staff of the Environmental Surveillance Group of the Health, Safety, and Environmental Division, HSE-8. The primary purpose was to aid the staff in evaluating cultural resources on LANL lands. In addition to works that related to the archaeology and history of the area, Steen included notations of a few books and articles in other fields such as geology and natural history. It was hoped that they also would be of value to other organizations and to students of past human activities on the Pajarito Plateau. At the same time, the National Park Service (NPS) was planning a major survey of Bandelier National Monument (BNM). As part of this plan, the author was asked to prepare a background document that described research previously carried out in the area, including an annotated bibliography. Although the survey would be limited to the park boundaries, the larger Pajarito Plateau is a more logical study area from physiographic, environmental, and cultural perspectives; hence the focus was on this larger region. Mathien (1986) also included some references to natural resources studies, particularly those initiated by NPS within Bandelier National Monument. Both bibliographies were made available to Colleen Olinger and Beverly Larson of the Health and Environmental Services Group at Los Alamos. They realized that while neither was complete, each included entries missing from the other. Larson suggested the two bibliographies be combined. (At this time, Craig Allen was studying the landscape of the Jemez Mountains [Allen 1984c, 1989]. His investigations included much detailed information on natural resource studies and were added in 1991 and 1992.) To limit the scope of their work, Steen and Mathien had chosen their parameter: the Pajarito Plateau. Geographically, the Pajarito Plateau is described as the high tableland that lies between the Jemez Mountains on the west and the Rio Grande on the east. From north to south, it extends from the Chama Valley to La Cañada de Cochiti (Hewett 1906:14)(Figure 1). Because human activity rarely stops at such definite boundaries, major ethnographic studies of Tewa (San Ildefonso and Santa Clara) and Keres (Cochiti) linguistic groups are included. (Even though most of the historic pueblos occupied by the Tewa and Keres are not located on the Pajarito Plateau, oral traditions and archaeological data suggest that these groups once occupied sites on the plateau.) Towa studies are not included because Steen believed Towa ancestors were not involved in major cultural developments of the Pajarito Plateau. In addition, a bibliography of the Jemez area (home of Towa people) has been prepared by Michael Elliott (1982) and included with his nomination of large Pueblo sites near Jemez Springs to the National Register of Historic Places that is on file at the Museum of New Mexico, Laboratory of Anthropology, in Santa Fe. Both Steen and Mathien included references to geographically and historically related material that does not focus on the Pajarito Plateau but, nonetheless, is important to understanding the area's archaeology and physical environment, for example, lithic resources available from Cerro Pedernal or in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

New Mexico↗

Interactions between surface water and ground water and effects on mercury transport in the north-central Everglades

The hydrology of the north-central Everglades was altered substantially in the past century by canal dredging, land subsidence, ground-water pumping, and levee construction. Vast areas of seasonal and perennial wetlands were converted to uses for agriculture, light industry, and suburban development. As the catchment area for the Everglades decreased, so did the sources of water from local precipitation and runoff from surrounding uplands. Partly in response to those alterations, water-resources managers compartmentalized the remaining wetlands in the north-central Everglades into large retention basins, called Water Conservation Areas (WCAs). In spite of efforts to improve how water resources are managed, the result has been frequent periods of excessive drying out or flooding of the WCAs because the managed system does not have the same water-storage capacity as the pre-drainage Everglades. Linked to the hydrological modifications are ecological changes including large-scale invasions of cattail, loss of tree islands, and diminishing bird populations in the Everglades. Complex interactions among numerous physical, chemical, and biological factors are responsible for the long-term degradation of the ecological character of the Everglades.Over the past 15 years, a new set of smaller wetland basins, called Stormwater Treatment Areas (STAs), have been designed and constructed by water-resources engineers on the former wetlands adjacent to WCAs. The purpose of STAs is to remove excess nutrients from agricultural drainage water prior to its input to WCAs. STAs tend to be about one-tenth the size of a WCA, and they are located on former wetlands on the northwestern side of WCAs on sites that were managed as farmland for much of the twentieth century in an area referred to as the Everglades Agricultural Area, or EAA. The objective of the present investigation was to quantify interactions between surface water and ground water in the Everglades Nutrient Removal Project (ENR), a prototype project for the STAs that began operation in 1994. Determining the effect of ground water on the mercury balance of the ENR treatment wetland was an important additional objective. In order to broaden the relevance of conclusions to all parts of the north-central Everglades, interactions between surface water and ground water and mercury also were investigated in Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A) and, to a lesser extent, in two other WCA basins, WCA-2B and WCA-3A.An important conclusion of this study is that creation of the WCA basins, and accompanying water-resources management, have appreciably increased both recharge and discharge in the north-central Everglades compared with pre-drainage conditions. Recharge and discharge are highest near the northern and northwestern edges of the Everglades, in the relatively small basins such as ENR and the STAs that share borders with both WCA-1 and the EAA. All basins experienced greater increases in recharge relative to discharge, because of the effects that land subsidence and ground-water pumping outside the Everglades had on hydraulic gradients. The highest basin-wide estimate of recharge was measured in ENR, where recharge averaged 0.9 centimeter per day (cm/d) over a 4-year study period. For perspective, that estimate of recharge is the equivalent of 30 percent of pumped surface-water inflows and 230 percent of average daily precipitation in ENR. Ground-water discharge was 10 times smaller than recharge at ENR. The present study estimated a basin-averaged recharge for WCA-2A (0.2 cm/d) that was a factor of 4 smaller than ENR. Although preliminary, that estimate of recharge is 5 times higher than previous estimates (approximately 0.04 cm/d), probably because the newer measurements were able to quantify recharge and discharge at finer spatial and temporal scales. Recharge at WCA-2A is smaller than ENR because WCA-2A has a smaller topographic gradient (3 x 10-5 and 2 x 10-4 in WCA-2A and ENR, respective

Florida↗

1993 Annual Report: San Francisco estuary regional monitoring program for trace substances

This first annual report of the San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program contains the results of monitoring measurements made in 1993. Measurements of conventional water quality parameters and trace contaminant concentrations were made at 16 stations throughout the Estuary three times during the year: the wet period (March), during declining Delta outflow (May), and during the dry period (September). Water toxicity tests were conducted at 8 of those stations. Measurements of sediment quality and contaminant concentrations were made at the same 16 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Sediment toxicity was measured at 8 of those stations. Transplanted, bagged bivalve bioaccumulation and condition was measured at 11 stations during the wet and dry sampling periods. Water Monitoring. Total or near-total (dissolved + particulate, see text) arsenic, cadmium, selenium, and dissolved (0.45 µm filtered) arsenic, cadmium, copper, nickel, silver, and zinc in water were highest in the South Bay. In general, dissolved metals in water were usually lowest in the Central Bay due to ocean influences. Near-total nickel and total mercury in water were highest in the northern estuary (San Pablo and Suisun Bays). Dissolved chromium and lead were highest at the Sacramento and San Joaquin River confluence stations. Six of the ten dissolved trace metals were highest in March during high runoff. Dissolved and total arsenic, selenium, and near-total cadmium were highest in September. Concentrations of trace organic contaminants are reported for the March sampling period. Total PAHs and PCBs were highest in the South Bay, but PCBs were also high in the Napa River. Dissolved PAHs were highest in the Central Bay, and dissolved PCBs were highest in the Napa River. Total and dissolved pesticides were highest in the Sacramento River and in the Extreme South Bay. Concentrations of trace elements in water (except selenium) were usually closely related with other environmental parameters. Total or near-total metals concentrations in water were most often associated with the amount of particulate material (TSS) in the water. Dissolved concentrations were usually associated with salinity or dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content. Dissolved PAHs were well correlated with TSS, but dissolved and total trace organic contaminants were poorly correlated with other water parameters. Based on deviations from conservative mixing of fresh and salt water, three different patterns of possible sources of metals were identified in 1993. For dissolved chromium and lead, rivers and local runoff appeared to be important sources. For dissolved arsenic, cadmium, copper, and nickel year-round inputs from the South Bay appeared to be important sources. Dissolved mercury, selenium, and zinc were associated with local runoff in the South Bay during the wet period. Dissolved silver did not fit any of these patterns. Although most contaminant concentrations were below water quality objectives, several trace contaminants were above the objectives at some stations. Comparisons to water quality objectives are used as a guide for evaluation of contaminant concentrations, but there are some differences in the way the RMP data are measured and that prescribed for regulatory purposes (see text). Concentrations of 5 metals in water were above EPA or Regional Basin Plan water quality objectives at six stations (see Table 30). Most of these elevated levels occurred at the northern estuary stations. Total PCB concentrations were above EPA human health objectives at all RMP stations. The pesticides chlordane, dieldrin, and DDTs were above the EPA objectives at several RMP stations, particularly at the northern-most, and river confluence stations. Although some of the contaminant concentrations were above water quality objectives, water toxicity tests (96 hour algal growth and 48 hour bivalve larval development tests) did not indicate toxicity (sometimes inconclusive) associated with the water samples collected at any of the RMP stations in 1993. Exposure to Bay San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program Regional Monitoring Program 1993 Report ii water actually enhanced algal growth at most stations. In addition to the Estuary-wide sampling, the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers were sampled upstream from their confluence. Stations in each river were sampled six times over a 6 week period of high flows. In the Sacramento River, seven of the ten dissolved metals measured had concentrations lower than those measured at the river confluence stations. Some metals concentrations in the San Joaquin River were higher, and some were lower than concentrations from the river confluence station. Metals concentrations in the Sacramento River were poorly related to river flow because the station at Rio Vista is under considerable tidal influence. In the San Joaquin River, flows were inversely related to 7 of 10 total metals concentrations. Sediment Monitoring. Concentrations of silver, mercury, and lead in sediment were highest in the South Bay. However, concentrations of most trace metals in sediments were highest in the northern estuary at stations with the finest (silt, clay) sediments. The northern estuary stations with the coarsest (sand, shell) sediments generally had the lowest metals concentrations. There were differences in concentrations of cadmium, lead, and selenium in sediments between the sampling periods, but no consistent trend as to which sampling period had higher values. In September, PAHs and PCBs in sediments were highest in the Central Bay, but pesticides in sediments were highest in the northern estuary and Extreme South Bay. NOAA’s Median Effects Ranges (ERM) for sediments were used as a guide for evaluation of sediment contaminant concentrations. Nickel was the only trace contaminant in sediment above the ERM guidelines, and it was high at all RMP stations. These high levels are probably due to natural, geologic sources. Although sediment contaminant concentrations were below ERMs, sediment toxicity tests (10 day amphipod mortality, and 48 hour bivalve larval development in elutriates) indicated toxicity at all stations tested. Sediment factors that could have caused the toxicity were not investigated. Bivalve Bioaccumulation. Mussels, oysters, and freshwater clams were transplanted to the RMP stations to evaluate bioaccumulation of trace substances. Trace metals were bioaccumulated at nearly all RMP stations. However, arsenic, lead, and mercury did not appear to bioaccumulate. There was generally more bioaccumulation during the dry season than during the wet season. In September, PAHs, PCBs, and pesticides accumulated in all samples. Bioaccumulation of PAHs and pesticides was generally highest at the river confluence stations, and the Napa River. PCBs accumulated most at Redwood Creek. There were substantial differences in the degree of bioaccumulation among the species. Oysters appeared to accumulate higher concentrations of trace metals than the other species, especially copper, which may be a natural phenomenon. There are no established tissue contaminant standards for trace metal and organic contaminants. Therefore, comparisons to Median International Standards (MIS) for human consumption, or U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) action levels for trace organics are used to evaluate the bioaccumulation results. Concentrations of selenium were higher than MIS guidelines at all stations during the wet season. Other trace metal concentrations were higher than MIS guidelines at various stations during one or the other sampling period. However, none of the bivalves contained concentrations above the USFDA or National Academy of Sciences (NAS) guidelines for trace organic contaminants. The transplanted bivalves survived well at all stations except in the Napa River where less than 35% survived during both sampling seasons. Measures of bivalve condition (dry weight, shell volume) indicated that bivalves deployed in the Central Bay grew significantly, but those at most other stations actually lost weight. Whether these differences were due to natural causes such as salinity or food supply, or to contamination, was not determined. Pilot Studies. Two pilot monitoring studies were conducted in 1993. A pilot study of Estuary hydrography and phytoplankton was conducted by scientists from the U.S. Summary Geological Survey in Menlo Park and U.C. Davis. Water column profiles at up to 37 stations were monitored along a transect of the Estuary run monthly between the South Bay and the Delta. The primary objective of this study was to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a) characteristics of Estuary water that may influence other chemical and biological reactions. A second objective was to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. The data collected in 1993 showed the extent and duration of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the South Bay, other localized blooms in the northern estuary, the stratification and mixing associated with the entrapment zone in the northern estuary, and mixing in the Estuary resulting from the high rainfall in 1993. Knowledge of the duration and extent of these natural features of the Estuary provide context for interpretation of the RMP contaminant data collected only 3 times per year. Another pilot study of suspended sediment transport processes was conducted by the USGS in Sacramento. This study used continuous recording sensors at Point San Pablo and the Bay Bridge to measure the amount of suspended sediment in the water at mid-depth and near the bottom, as well as tide height. The objectives of this study were to estimate which factors determine suspended solids concentrations in the Central Bay and to collect time series of suspended solids that are appropriate for continuous monitoring of suspended solids and for calibration and validation of numerical models. The investigators determined that spring tides accounted for most of the variation in suspended solids concentrations at the stations monitored, not runoff from the Sacramento or San Joaquin Rivers, or semidiurnal and diurnal tides. Comparisons were also made between measurements made by the continuous recordings and the RMP samples collected during the regular monitoring cruises. The different ways of measuring TSS were generally comparable, however only 3 measurements per year as made by the RMP could not provide the information of TSS variation actually occurring in the Estuary. This information is important because as shown by the RMP data, total contaminant concentrations in Estuary water is largely dependent on the TSS in the water. This implies that the RMP measurements alone cannot determine accurately the range of contaminant concentrations without better characterizing the dynamics of TSS. The RMP Pilot Studies are important to the developing RMP because they will help put RMP measurements into the perspective of Estuary processes and mechanisms at other time scales. The studies can relate those processes to the RMP measurements and will facilitate revision of sampling design and interpretation. Summaries of other monitoring activities pertinent to regional monitoring are also included in the Report: a description of the Regional Board’s Bay Protection Studies, the Sacramento Coordinated Monitoring Program, and a wetlands monitoring plan are included.

California↗

Ignimbrites to batholiths: integrating perspectives from geological, geophysical, and geochronological data

Multistage histories of incremental accumulation, fractionation, and solidification during construction of large subvolcanic magma bodies that remained sufficiently liquid to erupt are recorded by Tertiary ignimbrites, source calderas, and granitoid intrusions associated with large gravity lows at the Southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field (SRMVF). Geophysical data combined with geological constraints and comparisons with tilted plutons and magmatic-arc sections elsewhere are consistent with the presence of vertically extensive (>20 km) intermediate to silicic batholiths (with intrusive:extrusive ratios of 10:1 or greater) beneath the major SRMVF volcanic loci (Sawatch, San Juan, Questa-Latir). Isotopic data require involvement of voluminous mantle-derived mafic magmas on a scale equal to or greater than that of the intermediate to silicic volcanic and plutonic rocks. Early waxing-stage intrusions (35–30 Ma) that fed intermediate-composition central volcanoes of the San Juan locus are more widespread than the geophysically defined batholith; these likely heated and processed the crust, preparatory for ignimbrite volcanism (32–27 Ma) and large-scale upper-crustal batholith growth. Age and compositional similarities indicate that SRMVF ignimbrites and granitic intrusions are closely related, but the extent to which the plutons record remnants of former magma reservoirs that lost melt to volcanic eruptions has been controversial. Published Ar/Ar-feldspar and U-Pb-zircon ages for plutons spatially associated with ignimbrite calderas document final crystallization of granitoid intrusions at times indistinguishable from the tuff to ages several million years younger. These ages also show that SRMVF caldera-related intrusions cooled and solidified soon after zircon crystallization, as magma supply waned. Some researchers interpret these results as recording pluton assembly in small increments that crystallized rapidly, leading to temporal disconnects between ignimbrite eruption and intrusion growth. Alternatively, crystallization ages of the granitic rocks are here inferred to record late solidification, after protracted open-system evolution involving voluminous mantle input, lengthy residence (10 5 –10 6 yr) as near-solidus crystal mush, and intermittent separation of liquid to supply volcanic eruptions. The compositions of the least-evolved ignimbrite magmas tend to merge with those of caldera-related plutons, suggesting that the plutons record nonerupted parts of long-lived cogenetic magmatic systems, variably modified prior to final solidification. Precambrian-source zircons are scarce in caldera plutons, in contrast to their abundance in some peripheral waning-stage intrusions of the SRMVF, implying dissolution of inherited crustal zircon during lengthy magma assembly for the ignimbrite eruptions and construction of a subvolcanic batholith. Broad age spans of zircons (to several million years) from individual samples of some ignimbrites and intrusions, commonly averaged and interpreted as “intrusion-emplacement age,” alternatively provide an incomplete record of intermittent crystallization during protracted incremental magma-body assembly, with final solidification only when the system began to wane. Analyses of whole zircons cannot resolve late stages of crystal growth, and early growth in a long-lived magmatic system may be poorly recorded due to periods of zircon dissolution. Overall, construction of a batholith can take longer than recorded by zircon-crystallization ages, while the time interval for separation and shallow assembly of eruptible magma may be much shorter. Magma-supply estimates (from ages and volcano-plutonic volumes) yield focused intrusion-assembly rates sufficient to generate ignimbrite-scale volumes of eruptible magma, based on published thermal models. Mid-Tertiary processes of batholith assembly associated with the SRMVF caused drastic chemical and physical reconstruction of the entire lithosphere, probably accompanied by asthenospheric input.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

National water summary 1990-91: Hydrologic events and stream water quality

National Water Summary 1990-91 Hydrologic Events and Stream Water Quality was planned to complement existing Federal-State water-quality reporting to the U.S. Congress that is required by the Clean Water Act of 1972. This act, formally known as the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 (Public Law 92-500), and its amendments in 1977,1979,1980,1981,1983, and 1987, is the principal basis for Federal-State cooperation on maintaining and reporting on water quality in the United States. Under section 305(b) of the Clean Water Act, the States must designate uses for waterbodies, biennially assess whether the waterbodies meet designated uses, and report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which in turn summarizes the findings of the State assessments in a biennial National Water Quality Inventory report to the Congress. This volume of the National Water Summary uses a nationally consistent data base and methods of statistical analysis to document stream water quality in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the Western Pacific Islands. As a basis for preparation of this report, the U.S. Geological Survey (uses) created a data base of waterquality data from about 2,900 stream water-quality monitoring stations in the United States (Lanfear, 1993). These data, which were extracted primarily from the uses National Water Information System (NWIS) and supplemented with data from the EPA national data base known as STORET, consisted mostly of water-chemistry and physical-sediment data. About 1,400 of these stations met a criterion, used in this volume for trends analysis of data, of having a period of record that began before water year 1980. (A water year is the period from October 1 through September 30 and is identified by the calendar year at the end of the period.) Inasmuch as the determination of trends requires about 10 years of data, few biological data were suitable for trends analysis because biological indicators of water quality were not being collected extensively by water year 1980. Also, because of the lack of long-term data, an assessment of the water quality of lakes and reservoirs is not included in this National Water Summary . Constituent and waterproperty data were selected from this data base and analyzed with statistical techniques that have been used extensively by the uses to summarize conditions and trends in water quality. (Throughout the remainder of this article, the term "constituent" is used also to represent water properties, such as pH and alkalinity.) Selected results from this analysis are presented graphically, both by State and nationally, in this volume. The data base created for preparation of this volume and the resulting nationally consistent statistical analysis of these data provide a unique opportunity to compare and contrast stream water-quality conditions and trends nationally and State by State. Because of the complexity of water quality and the natural seasonal and diurnal variations in the concentrations of waterquality constituents, the determination of trends in water quality requires a relatively long period of record. Trends in constituent concentrations in the State summaries in this volume were calculated for one or more of four periods water years 1970-89,1975-89,1980- 89, and 1982-89. Unfortunately, few water-quality monitoring stations have periods of record of more than 10 or 15 years, and therefore most analyses in the State summaries were done for 8- or 10-year periods. Although interest in water quality has continued to heighten since passage of the Clean Water Act, funds for support of data-collection programs are limited and data records of many of the constituents now of current concern, especially organic constituents, do not exist or are less than 10-years long; consequently only a modest number of organic constituents are presented in this volume. Discussion of conditions and trends in water quality in this National Water Summary also draw upon information about land use, population, water use, application of agricultural chemicals in rural areas, the siting of industrial facilities, and other ancillary information. Because the results of analysis of a restricted number of constituents are presented in this volume, State 305(b) reports also are cited in the discussion of water quality in each State. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1990-91 National Water Summary - "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1990-91," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Stream Water Quality."

Water Supply Paper↗

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east-west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

Review and analysis of available streamflow and water-quality data for Park County, Colorado, 1962-98

Information on streamflow and surface-water and ground-water quality in Park County, Colorado, was compiled from several Federal, State, and local agencies. The data were reviewed and analyzed to provide a perspective of recent (1962-98) water-resource conditions and to help identify current and future water-quantity and water-quality concerns. Streamflow has been monitored at more than 40 sites in the county, and data for some sites date back to the early 1900's. Existing data indicate a need for increased archival of streamflow data for future use and analysis. In 1998, streamflow was continuously monitored at about 30 sites, but data were stored in a data base for only 10 sites. Water-quality data were compiled for 125 surface-water sites, 398 wells, and 30 springs. The amount of data varied considerably among sites; however, the available information provided a general indication of where water-quality constituent concentrations met or exceeded water-quality standards. Park County is primarily drained by streams in the South Platte River Basin and to a lesser extent by streams in the Arkansas River Basin. In the South Platte River Basin in Park County, more than one-half the annual streamflow occurs in May, June, and July in response to snowmelt in the mountainous headwaters. The annual snowpack is comparatively less in the Arkansas River Basin in Park County, and mean monthly streamflow is more consistent throughout the year. In some streams, the timing and magnitude of streamflow have been altered by main-stem reservoirs or by interbasin water transfers. Most values of surface-water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH were within recommended limits set by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Specific conductance (an indirect measure of the dissolved-solids concentration) generally was lowest in streams of the upper South Platte River Basin and higher in the southern one-half of the county in the Arkansas River Basin and in the South Platte River downstream from Antero Reservoir. Historical nitrogen concentrations in surface water were small. Nitrite was not detected, most un-ionized ammonia concentrations were less than 0.02 milligram per liter, and all nitrate concentrations were less than 1.2 milligrams per liter. Nitrate concentrations were higher in urban and built-up areas than in rangeland and forest areas. Most median concentrations of total phosphorus at individual sites were less than 0.05 milligram per liter, and concentrations were not significantly different among urban and built-up, rangeland, and forest areas. An upward trend in total phosphorus concentration was determined for flow from the East Portal of the Harold D. Roberts Tunnel, but the slope of the trend line was small and the concentrations were equal or nearly equal to the detection limit of 0.01 milligram per liter. Using median phosphorus loads for two South Platte River sites, the annual phosphorus load transported out of Park County in the South Platte River was calculated to be about 10,000 pounds. Median iron and manganese concentrations for most areas of Park County were less than in-stream water-quality standards, even though several individual concentrations were one to two orders of magnitude larger than the standards. The largest concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, and zinc were from the upper North Fork South Platte River Basin or the Mosquito Creek Basin. All ground-water concentrations of chloride and most ground-water concentrations of sulfate were less than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) drinking-water standard of 250 milligrams per liter. Median dissolved-solids concentrations in ground water ranged from 160 milligrams per liter in the crystalline-rock aquifers to 257 milligrams per liter in the sedimentary-rock aquifers. Dissolved-solids concentrations greater than the USEPA drinking-water standard of 500 milligrams per liter were detected in about 10 percent of the wells and in all aquifer types sampled but were most common in samples from the sedimentary-rock aquifers between the towns of Jefferson and Hartsel. Nitrate concentrations in ground water greater than the USEPA drinking-water standard of 10 milligrams per liter were measured primarily in samples collected during the 1990's in wells located in subdivisions northeast of Bailey. Nitrate concentrations in these subdivision wells were significantly larger than concentrations measured in wells in the same area in the 1970's, indicating a possible increase in ground-water contamination. Most trace-element concentrations measured in Park County ground water were less than USEPA drinking-water standards; however, standards for iron, manganese, and zinc were exceeded in a small number of samples. Trace-element concentrations exceeding the standards occurred in each aquifer type, and median concentrations of iron, manganese, and zinc were similar among aquifer types. The physical and chemical characteristics of springwater in Park County varied greatly and were dependent on the type of rock in which the water originated. Specific conductance was lowest in springs originating in the crystalline-rock aquifers of Precambrian age and highest in a spring that may originate in evaporite beds in a sedimentary-rock aquifer that is composed of the Maroon Formation of Paleozoic age.

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