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USGS2024

Geese migrating over the Pacific Ocean select altitudes coinciding with offshore wind turbine blades

Renewable energy facilities are a key part of mitigating climate change, but can pose threats to wild birds and bats, most often through collisions with infrastructure. Understanding collision risk and the factors affecting it can help minimize impacts on wild populations. For wind turbines, flight altitude is a major factor influencing collision risk, and altitude-selection analyses can evaluate when and why animals fly at certain altitudes under certain conditions. We used GPS tags to track Pacific Flyway geese (Pacific greater white-fronted goose, tule greater white-fronted goose and lesser snow goose) on transoceanic migrations between Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the contiguous United States, an area where offshore windfarm development is beginning. We evaluated how geographic and environmental covariates affected (1) whether birds were at rest on the water versus in flight (binomial model) and (2) altitude selection when in flight (similar to a step-selection framework). We then used a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of flying at each altitude under various conditions, considering both the fly/rest decision and altitude selection. In both spring and fall, geese showed strong selection for altitudes within the expected rotor-swept zone (20–200 m asl), with 56% of locations expected to be within the rotor-swept zone under mean daylight conditions and 28% at night. This indicates a high possibility that migrating geese may be at risk of collision when passing through windfarms. Although there was some variation across subspecies, geese were most likely to be within the rotor-swept zone with little wind or light tailwinds, low clouds, little to no precipitation and moderate to cool air temperatures. Geese were unlikely to be in the rotor-swept zone at night, when most individuals were at rest on the water. Synthesis and applications . These results could be used to inform windfarm management, including decisions to shut down turbines when collision risk is high. The altitude-selection framework we demonstrate could facilitate further study of other bird species to develop a holistic view of how windfarms in this area could affect the migratory bird community as a whole.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources

Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. Such an approach has been extensively studied in the past and it is widely recognized as an important disaster-risk mitigation tool. PTHA can not only provide less uncertain and spatially coherent hazard estimates in comparison with classical empirical data analysis which is restricted at the tide gauge stations, but also local inundation information. In this paper, we explore a purely statistical alternative to traditional PTHA for evaluation of tsunami amplitude hazard. Here, we use tide gauge measurements of tsunami amplitude along the western United States, specifically California and Oregon, and develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to assess tsunami hazard from far-field earthquake sources at various recurrence intervals. The configuration of our model incorporates latent Gaussian fields that utilize information on the distance between tide gauges as well as on the continental shelf width, that is, a covariate linked to potential dissipative effects on wave energy as the tsunami travels over shallow water. Through our BHM, we produce spatially continuous probabilistic maps of far-field tsunami hazard which can aid comprehensive tsunami disaster risk reduction and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

The field trip that changed the course of my career

After gobbling down a breakfast of sliced papaya, scrambled eggs, refried beans, and soft flour tacos, we gathered our gear and loaded it into the red zodiac that the station manager had assigned to us. My colleagues and I were headed to a pair of islands off the coast of Belize called Twin Cays, occupied by a unique group of tropical plants and animals adapted to a wet and saline habitat. Our ride from Carrie Bow Cay, home of the Smithsonian Institution’s field station, took about twenty minutes because of the choppy water. As we crossed the three-kilometer stretch from Carrie Bow to Twin Cays, I struggled to keep my seat on the bouncing pontoon and was soon soaked by salt spray. As we neared Twin Cays, the deep blue of the lagoon gave way to the turquoise and pale green colors of the shallow sand flats in the lee of the archipelago. Finally, the zodiac slowed, and we pulled into the calm channel separating the two islands. On either side of the channel was an intimidating tangle of tree trunks, branches, leaves, and aerial roots. The trees leaned out over the water and appeared poised to topple into the sea. However, they were perfectly still in the humid morning air and anchored solidly in place by arching prop roots. I sensed that I had entered an alien world, a waterlogged Terra Incognita that looked, smelled, and sounded like nothing I had ever experienced. As we slowly motored along, I peered more closely at the trees that fringed the shoreline. They had gnarled trunks and twisted branches that supported a canopy of dark green leaves. These trees were red mangroves or Rhizophora mangle, their scientific name, and were the dominant vegetation here. These oceanic mangrove islands were intertidal, which means that the trees were inundated twice a day by the sea. Their intimate relationship with the sea, however, was most apparent along the water’s edge. Long, drop roots plunged from the canopy to dangle in the crystal-clear water. Encrusted on the submerged portions of the mangrove roots were yellow and orange sponges, white and pink anemones, sharp-edged oysters, and feathery-green algae. The mangroves, it turned out, provided the only solid substrate for these sessile creatures. There were also mobile animals that I glimpsed as I leaned over the pontoon to peer into the pellucid water. Tiny fish flashed among the partially submerged roots as each one briefly flipped its body sideways to catch the sun glinting through the water. A school of mangrove snappers swam past the boat and disappeared under the overhanging creekbank, which created a shadowy haven from predators. Ribbons of turtlegrass, uprooted from the nearby reef flat, were draped on mangrove prop roots like green and brown tinsel. As the zodiac floated closer to shore, I spotted a mangrove tree crab, which stealthily crept up a tree trunk. In the distance, I could hear the hectoring cry of an osprey, as well as the periodic cheep-cheep of a mangrove warbler deeper in the forest. A soft breeze carried the faint odor of rotten eggs, which was caused by the microbially mediated production of hydrogen sulfide in the waterlogged soil. This was my first close-up view of Belize’s mangroves. The year was 1985. The movie “Back to the Future” had just premiered, PLO terrorists had hijacked the Italian cruise ship Achille Lauro, five people had died after ingesting cyanide-laced Tylenol, and Microsoft had just released Windows 1.0. I had recently gotten a Macintosh personal computer with 128k of memory (seemed like a lot back then) and was learning how to use Cricket Graph, my first software program. Until that point, I had been creating graphs by hand with ink-filled drawing pens, T-squares, and Letraset dry-transfer sheets. This was a time when the world seemed to be on the verge of dramatic changes—many that would impact me and my career as a scientist.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Bodega Head, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the 3-nautical-mile limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Bodega Head map area is located in northern California, about 70 km north of San Francisco and about 80 km south of Point Arena. The onshore part of the map area is largely undeveloped, used primarily for recreation, farms and ranches, and a few wineries. The small town of Bodega Bay, located on the east side of Bodega Harbor, is the largest cultural center. Bodega Harbor is an important commercial fishing base and, in season, an active sport fishing and recreation harbor. Much of the coastline from Bodega Head north to about 6 km north of the Russian River is part of Sonoma Coast State Park. The Offshore of Bodega Head map area includes two California Marine Protected Areas, the Bodega Head State Marine Reserve and the northern part of the Bodega Head State Marine Conservation Area. Additionally, the inland parts of two large estuaries in the map area, Estero Americano and Estero de San Antonio, have been designated as State Marine Recreational Management Areas. The map area is cut by the northwest-striking San Andreas Fault, the right-lateral transform boundary between the North American and Pacific plates. This fault juxtaposes rocks of the Jurassic and Cretaceous Franciscan Complex on the northeast with Cretaceous granitic rocks on the southwest, and it has an estimated slip rate of about 17 to 25 mm/yr in this area. The devastating great 1906 California earthquake (M7.8) is thought to have nucleated on the San Andreas Fault offshore of San Francisco, about 80 km south of Bodega Head, with the rupture extending northward through the Offshore of Bodega Head map area and an additional 220 km to the south flank of Cape Mendocino. North of the mouth of Salmon Creek, the coast and shoreline are rugged and scenic, characterized by flights of uplifted marine terraces, rocky promontories, nearshore sea stacks, kelp-rich coves, and both pocket beaches and longer beach strands, the latter of which include Wrights Beach and Portuguese Beach. The coast has lower relief between the mouth of Salmon Creek and Mussel Point, where South Salmon Creek Beach is backed by a large (about 4 km 2 ) complex of coastal sand dunes. The enormous volume of sand on the beach and in the dune field is derived by southward littoral drift from the Russian River, Salmon Creek, and smaller coastal watersheds. The sediment is trapped by protruding bedrock at Mussel Point, which represents the south end of the Russian River littoral cell. Bodega Head is underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks, and its shoreline is variously characterized by relatively low-lying terraces, steep and high bluffs, and a few pocket beaches. East of Bodega Head, Doran Beach (part of Doran Regional Park) is a 1.7-km-long sand spit that forms the north boundary of Bodega Bay and the south boundary of Bodega Harbor. The coast south of Doran Beach on the east flank of Bodega Bay is composed of rocky bluffs, hummocky marine terraces, and a few small pocket beaches. The bluffs are underlain by sheared rocks of the Franciscan Complex and are highly susceptible to landslides. This section of coast includes two prominent watersheds, Estero Americano and Estero de San Antonio, which drain westward into Bodega Bay. The offshore part of the Offshore of Bodega Head map area is characterized by an extensive, rugged and rocky shelf underlain by Cretaceous granitic rocks. This rocky terrain, centered offshore of Bodega Head, extends northwestward for about 15 km, from the south edge of the map area (where it forms the west boundary of Bodega Bay) to the northern-central part of the map area offshore of the mouth of Salmon Creek. This rocky seafloor reaches water depths of 40 to 80 m and is overlain by young sediment. Circulation over the shelf and seafloor in the map area (and in the broader central California region) is dominated by the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern boundary current of the North Pacific Gyre. Associated upwelling brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, resulting in high biological productivity. Persistent northwest winds are sometimes weak or absent during the fall and winter, causing the California Current to move farther offshore so that the shelf is affected by the Davidson Current, a weaker northward-flowing countercurrent. As a result, net flow over the continental shelf is commonly southeastward during the spring and summer and northwestward during the fall and winter. Throughout the year, this part of the northern California coast is exposed to four wave climate regimes: the north Pacific swell, the southern swell, northwest wind waves, and local wind waves. The north Pacific swell dominates in winter months (typically November through March). During summer months, the largest waves come from the southern swell, generated by storms in the south Pacific and offshore of Central America. Northwest wind waves affect the coast throughout the year, whereas local wind waves are most common from October to April. Potential marine benthic habitats in the Offshore of Bodega Head map area include unconsolidated continental-shelf sediments, mixed continental-shelf substrate, and hard continental-shelf substrate. Rocky-shelf outcrops and rubble are considered to be promising potential habitats for rockfish and lingcod, both of which are recreationally and commercially important species.

California↗

USGS2023

United States Gulf of Mexico waters provide important nursery habitat for Mexico’s green turtle nesting populations

Resolving natal populations for juvenile green turtles is challenging given their potential for extensive dispersal during the oceanic stage and ontogenetic shifts among nursery habitats. Mitochondrial DNA markers have elucidated patterns of connectivity between green turtle nesting populations (rookeries) and juvenile foraging aggregations. However, missing rookery baseline data and haplotype sharing among populations have often impeded inferences, including estimating origins of Gulf of Mexico juveniles. Here, we assessed genetic structure among seven foraging aggregations spanning southern Texas (TX) to southwestern Florida (SWFL), including Port Fourchon, Louisiana (LA); a surface-pelagic aggregation (SP) offshore of Louisiana and Florida; Santa Rosa Island, Florida (SRI); St. Joseph Bay, Florida (SJB); and the Big Bend region, Florida (BB). We estimated source contributions to aggregations with novel genetic data (excluding SP and BB) using a Bayesian many-to-one mixed stock analysis (MSA) approach. Haplotype frequencies for western (TX, LA, SP, SRI) and eastern (SJB, BB, SWFL) aggregations were significantly differentiated. The largest shift in haplotype frequencies between proximal nursery sites occurred between SRI and SJB, separated by only 150 km, highlighting the lack of a geographic yardstick for predicting genetic structure. In contrast to previous MSA results, there was no signal of Florida juveniles at any foraging site. Mexican contributions dominated in all aggregations, with strong connectivity between western Bay of Campeche (Tamaulipas/Veracruz) rookeries and western foraging aggregations. MSA indicated more diverse Mexican origins for eastern aggregations, with larger inputs from the eastern Bay of Campeche (Campeche/Yucatán), Campeche Bank, and Quintana Roo rookeries. These results demonstrate the significance of the Gulf of Mexico coast and offshore waters of the United States as important nursery habitat for green turtles of Mexican origin and highlight the need for international coordination for management of these populations.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2022

Defining oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana for restoration and aquaculture

Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) are a critical ecological and commercial resource in the northern Gulf of Mexico facing changing environmental conditions from river management and climate change. In Louisiana, USA, development of restored reefs, and off-bottom aquaculture would benefit from the identification of locations supportive of sustainable oyster populations ( i.e., metapopulations) and high consistent production. This study defines four oyster resource zones across coastal Louisiana based on environmental conditions known to affect oyster survival, growth, and reproduction. Daily data from 2015 to 2019 were interpolated to generate salinity and temperature profiles across Louisiana's estuaries, which were then used to classify zones based on monthly and annual salinity mean and variance. Zones were classified as supportive of (1) broodstock sanctuary reefs (i.e., support reproductive populations), (2) productive reefs during dry (salty) years, (3) productive reefs during wet (fresh) years, and (4) off-bottom aquaculture development. Of the 38,000 km 2 investigated, over 11,000 km 2 of potential oyster zone area was identified across the Louisiana coast. The Broodstock Sanctuary Zone was the smallest (∼540 km 2 ), as salinity variance limited this zone in many areas, as it is driven largely by riverine inputs across many estuaries. Located up-estuary (Dry Restoration Zone) and down-estuary (Wet Restoration Zone) of the Broodstock Sanctuary Zone, Dry and Wet Restoration Zone areas covered ∼2400 km 2 and ∼3900 km 2 , respectively. Mapped reefs in Louisiana currently exist largely within the Dry Restoration zones, suggesting a potential strategy to focus reef development in Wet Restoration zones to ensure reef network sustainability through years with high precipitation and river inflow. The off-bottom Aquaculture Zone was the largest (∼6400 km 2 ) zone identified, with much of this area located more down-estuary and off-shore. Accounting for variable water quality conditions enables the development of a network of reefs resilient to environmental variability, and more stable areas for consistent off-bottom aquaculture production. Spatial planning and identification of oyster resource zones reduces focus on individual reef success and supports management of oyster metapopulation outcomes, while identifying zones supportive of off-bottom aquaculture.

Louisiana↗

USGS2008

Mapping of Florida's coastal and marine resources: Setting priorities workshop

The importance of mapping habitats and bioregions as a means to improve resource management has become increasingly clear. Large areas of the waters surrounding Florida are unmapped or incompletely mapped, possibly hindering proper management and good decisionmaking. Mapping of these ecosystems is among the top priorities identified by the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council in their Annual Science Research Plan. However, lack of prioritization among the coastal and marine areas and lack of coordination of agency efforts impede efficient, cost–effective mapping. A workshop on Mapping of Florida’s Coastal and Marine Resources was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), and Southeastern Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS). The workshop was held at the USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) in St. Petersburg, FL, on February 7-8, 2007. The workshop was designed to provide State, Federal, university, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) the opportunity to discuss their existing data coverage and create a prioritization of areas for new mapping data in Florida. Specific goals of the workshop were multifold, including to: provide information to agencies on state-of-the-art technology for collecting data; inform participants of the ongoing mapping programs in waters off Florida; present the mapping needs and priorities of the State and Federal agencies and entities operating in Florida; work with State of Florida agencies to establish an overall priority for areas needing mapping; initiate discussion of a unified classification of habitat and bioregions; discuss and examine the need to standardize terminology and data collection/storage so that data, in particular habitat data, can be shared; identify opportunities for partnering and leveraging mapping efforts among agencies and entities; identify impediments and organizational gaps that hinder collection of data for mapping; seek innovative solutions to the primary obstacles identified; identify the steps needed to move mapping of Florida’s oceans and coasts forward, in preparation for a better coordinated, more cost-effective mapping program to allow State and Federal agencies to make better decisions on coastal-resource issues. Over 90 invited participants representing more than 30 State and Federal agencies, universities, NGOs, and private industries played a large role in the success of this two-day workshop. State of Florida agency participants created a ranked priority order for mapping 13 different regions around Florida. The data needed for each of the 13 priority regions were outlined. A matrix considering State and Federal priorities was created, utilizing input from all agencies. The matrix showed overlapping interests of the entities and will allow for partnering and leveraging of resources. The five most basic mapping needs were determined to be bathymetry, high-vertical resolution coastline for sea-level rise scenarios, shoreline change, subsurface geology, and benthic habitats at sufficient scale. There was a clear convergence on the need to coordinate mapping activities around the state. Suggestions for coordination included: creating a glossary of terms: a standard for specifying agency data-mapping needs; creating a geographic information officer (GIO) position or permanent organizing group to maintain communications established at this workshop and to maintain progress on the issues identified during the workshop. The person or group could develop a website, maintain a project-status matrix, develop a list of contacts, create links to legislative updates and links to funding sources; developing a web portal and one-stop/clearinghouse of data. There was general consensus on the need to adopt a single habitat classification system and a strategy to accommodate existing systems smoothly. Unresolved aspects of the systems warrant that a separate workshop would be needed to work out details. Participants recognized that the State priority list would necessarily be updated periodically. An annual review of priorities would facilitate information exchange, mapping activities updates, and re-allocation of funding among changing priorities. It was recognized that mapping of State waters would take billions of dollars and in light of tightening budgets there was need for processes that could be used to appropriate or leverage monies for mapping and reduce data-collection costs. Fourteen different avenues were explored. There was a clear consensus that the linking of public to private partnerships to support mapping was imperative, and ways to achieve this were discussed.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Enhancing assessments of coastal wetland migration potential with sea-level rise: Accounting for uncertainty in elevation data, tidal data, and future water levels

Sea-level rise rates are predicted to surpass rates of wetland vertical adjustment in the coming decades in many areas, increasing the potential for wetland submergence. Information on where wetland migration is possible can help natural resource managers for planning land acquisition or enhancing habitat connectivity to bolster adaptation of coastal wetlands to rising seas. Elevation-based models of wetland migration are often hampered with uncertainty associated with ground surface elevation, current water levels (i.e., tides and extreme water levels), and future water levels from sea-level rise. Here, we developed an approach that involved digital elevation model error reduction and the use of Monte Carlo simulations that utilize uncertainty assumptions regarding elevation error, contemporary water levels, and future sea levels to identify potential wetland migration areas. Our analyses were developed for Duvall and Nassau Counties in northeastern Florida (USA). We focus on the migration of regularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water daily) and irregularly oceanic-flooded wetlands (i.e., flooded by oceanic water less frequently than daily). For two relative sea-level rise scenarios based on the 0.5 m and the 1.5 m global mean sea-level rise scenarios, we quantified migration by wetland flooding frequency class and identified land cover and land use types that are vulnerable to future exposure to oceanic waters. The variability in total coverage and relative coverage of wetland migration from our results highlights how topography and accelerated sea-level rise interact. Our wetland migration results communicate uncertainty by showing flooding frequency class as probabilistic outputs.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Are coastal managers ready for climate change? A case study from estuaries along the Pacific coast of the United States

A key challenge for coastal resource managers is to plan and implement climate change adaptation strategies inlight of uncertainties and competing management priorities. In 2014, we held six workshops across estuaries along the Pacific coast of North America with over 150 participants to evaluate resource managers' perceived level of understanding of climate change science, where they obtain information, how they use this knowledge, and their preparedness for incorporating climate change into their management decisions. We found that most resource managers understood the types of climate change impacts likely to occur in their estuaries, but often lacked the scientific information to make decisions and plan effectively. Managers stated that time, money, and staff resources were the largest obstacles in their efforts. Managers identified that they learned most of their information from peers, scientific journals, and the Internet and indicated that sea-level rise was their greatest concern. There was, however, variation in managers' levels of readiness and perceived knowledge within and among workshop locations. The workshops revealed that some regions don't have the information they need or the planning capacity to effectively integrate climate change into their management, with eight out of fifteen site comparisons showing a significant difference between their level of preparedness (F 5,26 = 6.852; p = 0.0003), and their willingness to formally plan (F 5,26 = 12.84; p = 0.000002). We found that Urban estuaries were significantly different from Mixed Use and Rural estuaries, in having access to information and feeling more prepared to conduct climate change planning and implementation (F 2,29 = 17.34; p = 0.00001). To facilitate climate change preparedness more comprehensive integration of science into management decisions is essential.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗

USGS2018

Analysis of multi-decadal wetland changes, and cumulative impact of multiple storms 1984 to 2017

Land-cover classification analysis using Landsat satellite imagery acquired between 1984 and 2017 quantified short- (post-Hurricane Sandy) and long-term wetland-change trends along the Maryland and Virginia coasts between Metompkin Bay, VA and Ocean City, MD. Although there are limited options for upland migration of wetlands in the study area, regression analysis showed that wetland area increased slightly between 1984 and 2011, indicating that marsh aggradation rates were sufficient to maintain wetland elevation relative to mean sea level. Following Hurricane Irene (August 2011), the Halloween Nor’Easter (October 2011), and Hurricane Sandy (October 2012), wetland area decreased by more than 7 km 2 compared with average pre-storm extents. We assume that Hurricane Sandy had the greatest impact due to the size and intensity of the storm. However, the cumulative effects of multiple storms within a short time period likely contributed to the greater observed losses in coastal wetlands relative to earlier periods. Five years after Hurricane Sandy, wetland area had not significantly recovered, but more time may be necessary to assess if the observed wetland losses will persist or if new growth within flooded marsh areas will be sufficient for the wetlands to recover to pre-storm extents. Comparisons of long-term and storm-driven wetland changes can lead to improved accuracy of habitat vulnerability models and greater understanding of potential impacts of future storms and SLR to coastal wetlands.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

USGS2007

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Hawai‘i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands

The U.S. Pacific Islands are culturally and environmentally diverse, treasured by the 1.9 million people who call them home. Pacific islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their exposure and isolation, small size, low elevation (in the case of atolls), and concentration of infrastructure and economy along the coasts. A prevalent cause of year-to-year changes in climate patterns around the globe and in the Pacific Islands region is the El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO can dramatically affect precipitation, air and ocean temperature, sea surface height, storminess, wave size, and trade winds. It is unknown exactly how the timing and intensity of ENSO will continue to change in the coming decades, but recent climate model results suggest a doubling in frequency of both El Niño and La Niña extremes in this century as compared to the 20th century under scenarios with more warming, including the higher scenario (RCP8.5). On islands, all natural sources of freshwater come from rainfall received within their limited land areas. Severe droughts are common, making water shortage one of the most important climate-related risks in the region. As temperature continues to rise and cloud cover decreases in some areas, evaporation is expected to increase, causing both reduced water supply and higher water demand. Streamflow in Hawai‘i has declined over approximately the past 100 years, consistent with observed decreases in rainfall. The impacts of sea level rise in the Pacific include coastal erosion, episodic flooding, permanent inundation, heightened exposure to marine hazards, and saltwater intrusion to surface water and groundwater systems. Sea level rise will disproportionately affect the tropical Pacific and potentially exceed the global average. Invasive species , landscape change, habitat alteration, and reduced resilience have resulted in extinctions and diminished ecosystem function. Inundation of atolls in the coming decades is projected to impact existing on-island ecosystems. Wildlife that relies on coastal habitats will likely also be severely impacted. In Hawaiʻi, coral reefs contribute an estimated $477 million to the local economy every year. Under projected warming of approximately 0.5°F per decade, all nearshore coral reefs in the Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands region will experience annual bleaching before 2050. An ecosystem -based approach to international management of open ocean fisheries in the Pacific that incorporates climate-informed catch limits is expected to produce more realistic future harvest levels and enhance ecosystem resilience. Indigenous communities of the Pacific derive their sense of identity from the islands. Emerging issues for Indigenous communities of the Pacific include the resilience of marine-managed areas and climate-induced human migration from their traditional lands. The rich body of traditional knowledge is place-based and localized and is useful in adaptation planning because it builds on intergenerational sharing of observations. Documenting the kinds of governance structures or decision-making hierarchies created for management of these lands and waters is also important as a learning tool that can be shared with other island communities. Across the region, groups are coming together to minimize damage and disruption from coastal flooding and inundation as well as other climate-related impacts. Social cohesion is already strong in many communities, making it possible to work together to take action. Early intervention can lower economic, environmental, social, and cultural costs and reduce or prevent conflict and displacement from ancestral land and resources.

Report↗

USGS2007

Effect of storms on barrier island dynamics, Core Banks, Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina, 1960-2001

The effect of storms on long-term dynamics of barrier islands was evaluated on Core Banks, a series of barrier islands that extend from Cape Lookout to Okracoke Inlet in the Cape Lookout National Seashore, North Carolina. Shoreline and elevation changes were determined by comparing 77 profiles and associated reference markers established by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) on Core Banks from June 1960 to July 1962 to a follow-up survey by Godfrey and Godfrey (G&G) in 1971 and a survey by the Department of Geology at East Carolina University (ECU) in 2001, in which 57 of the original 77 profiles were located. Evaluation of the baseline data associated with the USACE study supplies an important record of barrier island response to two specific storm events—Hurricane Donna in September 1960 and the Ash Wednesday extra-tropical cyclone in March 1962. The 1962 USACE survey was followed by 9 years characterized by no major storms; this low-energy period was captured by the G&G survey in 1971. The G&G survey was followed by 22 years characterized by occasional small to moderate storms. Starting in 1993, however, and continuing through 1999, the North Carolina coast experienced a major increase in storm activity, with seven major hurricanes impacting Core Banks. Both the USACE 1960–1962 and G&G 1962–1971 surveys produced short-term data sets that reflected very different sets of weather conditions. The ECU 2001 survey data were then compared with the USACE 1960 survey data to develop a long-term (41 years) data set for shoreline erosion on Core Banks. Those resulting long-term data were compared with the long-term (52 years) data sets by the North Carolina Division of Coastal Management (NCDCM) from 1940–1992 and 1946–1998; a strong positive correlation and very similar rates of average annual erosion resulted. However, the ECU and NCDCM long-term data sets did not correlate with either of the USACE and G&G short-term survey data and had very different average annual erosion rates. The average annual long-term rate of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks and for both the ECU 1960–2001 and the NCDCM 1946–1998 surveys was -5 feet per year (ft/yr). These long-term rates of shoreline recession are in strong contrast with the short-term, storm-dominated rates of shoreline erosion for all of Core Banks developed by the USACE 1960–1961 and USACE 1961–1962 surveys, which have average annual erosion rates of -40 ft/yr and -26 ft/yr, respectively, and range from -226 feet (ft) to +153 ft. The combined short-term, storm-dominated shoreline erosion rate for the USACE surveys (1960–1962) was -36 ft/yr. In contrast, the average annual short-term, non-stormy period G&G 1962–1971 survey demonstrated shoreline accretion for all of Core Banks with an average annual rate of +12 ft/yr. In general, North Core Banks has higher erosion and accretion rates than South Core Banks. In the 1961 survey, the USACE installed 231 reference markers (RM-0 is closest to the ocean and RM-2 is farthest from the ocean) along the 77 profiles, as well as 33 reference markers labeled RM-4, RM-6, and RM-8 in the wider portions of the islands. The G&G survey recovered a total of 141 reference markers (61 percent), and the ECU survey recovered a total of 83 reference markers (36 percent) of the RM-0, RM-1, and RM-2 markers. The average ground elevation measured by the USACE in 1961 was RM-0 = +5.8 ft, RM-1 = +5.2 ft, and RM-2 = +4.8 ft. The G&G 1970 survey measured average ground elevations of RM-0 = +6.7 ft, RM-1 = +6.4 ft, and RM-2 = +6.1 ft, and the average ground elevation measured by ECU in 2001 was RM-0 = +10.1 ft, RM-1 = +9.1 ft, and RM-2 = +8.5 ft. The latter numbers represent approximately an overall 72-percent increase in island elevation from 1961 to 2001. Based on aerial photographic time-slice analyses, it is hypothesized that this increase in island elevation occurred during the post-1962 period with storm overwash systematically raising the island elevation through time, which in turn led to decreased numbers of overwash events. The latter processes and responses in turn led to a substantial increase in vegetative growth on the barrier island, as well as submerged aquatic vegetation on the back-barrier sand shoals. Integration of the USACE, G&G, ECU, and NCDCM shoreline erosion data for Core Banks shows several important points about shoreline recession. (1) The ECU and NCDCM data sets demonstrate that there is an ongoing net, long-term, but small-scale shoreline recession associated with Core Banks; (2) the USACE short-term data sets demonstrate that processes associated with individual storm events or sets of events produce extremely large-scale changes that include both erosion and accretion; (3) the short-term, non-stormy period data set of G&G demonstrates that if given enough time between storm events, barriers can rebuild to their pre-storm period conditions; and (4) the post-storm response generally tends to approach the pre-storm location, but rarely reaches it before the next storm or stormy period sets in. The result is the net long-term change documented by both the ECU 1960–2001 and NCDCM 1946–1998 Core Banks data sets that resulted in erosion rates ranging from 0 to -30 ft/yr with net annual average recession rates of -5 ft/yr. Analysis and comparison of these data sets supply important information for understanding the dynamics and responses of barrier island systems through time. In addition, the results of the present study on Core Banks supply essential process-response information that can be used to design and implement management plans for the Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras National Seashores and for other seashores in the U.S. National Park Service system.

North Carolina↗

USGS2017

A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications

The impacts from climate change are increasing the possibility of vulnerable coastal species and habitats crossing critical thresholds that could spur rapid and possibly irreversible changes. For species of high conservation concern, improved knowledge of quantitative thresholds could greatly improve management. To meet this need, we synthesized information pertaining to biological responses as tipping points to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal storms for 45 fish, wildlife, and plant species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and Caribbean through a literature review and expert elicitation. Although these species were selected based on their ecological, economic, and cultural importance, just over half (56%, n = 25) have quantitative threshold data currently available that can be used to assess the effects of SLR and storms during some aspect of their life history. Birds, reptiles, and plants represent the best studied coastal species. Thirteen of the species (29%) are projected to lose at least 50% of their population or habitat (e.g., foraging, nesting, spawning, or resting habitat) in some areas with a 0.5 m or greater rise in sea levels by 2100. Two species (a bird and reptile) may gain habitat from projected SLR and be resilient to future impacts. Numeric thresholds were not available for the remaining 20 species we searched for. Coastal fishes, mammals, and amphibians were among the groups representing a major information gap in this field of research. In addition, quantitative threshold responses to coastal storms were scarce for all taxa. While vulnerability assessments and qualitative research related to the impacts of SLR and storms on coastal species and habitats are increasing, work that incorporates quantitative thresholds as response and impact metrics remains limited. Additional monitoring, modeling, and research that provides multiple quantitative thresholds across species' life stages and/or latitudinal gradients is ideal to support robust coastal management and decision-making across spatio-temporal scales in the face of climate change.

Ocean and Coastal Management↗

USGS1998

Hydrogeology, water quality, water budgets, and simulated responses to hydrologic changes in Santa Rosa and San Simeon Creek ground-water basins, San Luis Obispo County, California

Santa Rosa and San Simeon Creeks are underlain by thin, narrow ground-water basins that supply nearly all water used for local agricultural and municipal purposes. The creeks discharge to the Pacific Ocean near the northwestern corner of San Luis Obispo County, California. The basins contain heterogeneous, unconsolidated alluvial deposits and are underlain by relatively impermeable bedrock. Both creeks usually stop flowing during the summer dry season, and most of the pumpage during that time is derived from ground-water storage. Annual pumpage increased substantially during 1956?88 and is now a large fraction of basin storage capacity. Consequently, dry-season water levels are lower and the water supply is more vulnerable to drought. The creeks are the largest source of ground-water recharge, and complete basin recharge can occur within the first few weeks of winter streamflow. Agricultural and municipal pumpages are the largest outflows and cause dry-season water-level declines throughout the San Simeon Basin. Pumping effects are more localized in the Santa Rosa Basin because of subsurface flow obstructions. Even without pumpage, a large quantity of water naturally drains out of storage at the upper ends of the basins during the dry season. Ground water is more saline in areas close to the coast than in inland areas. Although seawater intrusion has occurred in the past, it probably was not the cause of high salinity in 1988?89. Ground water is very hard, and concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, iron, and manganese exceed drinking-water standards in some locations. Probability distributions of streamflow were estimated indirectly from a 120-year rainfall record because the periods of record for local stream-gaging stations were wetter than average. Dry-season durations with recurrence intervals between 5 and 43 years are likely to dry up some wells but not cause seawater intrusion. A winter with no streamflow is likely to occur about every 32 years and to result in numerous dry wells, seawater intrusion, and subsidence. Digital ground-water-flow models were used to estimate several items in the ground-water budgets and to investigate the effects of pumpage and drought. The models also were used to investigate the hydrologic effects of selected water-resources management alternatives. Selection of alternatives was not constrained by issues related to water rights, which were under dispute during the study. Increases in the area and intensity of irrigation could increase agricultural water demand by 26 to 35 percent, an increase that would lower water levels by as much as 10 feet and possibly cause subsidence in the lower Santa Rosa Basin. An additional municipal well in the lower Santa Rosa Basin could withdraw 100 acre-feet per year without causing seawater intrusion, but subsidence might occur. Transferring 270 acre-feet per year of treated wastewater from a percolation area near the coast to an area about 0.5 mile upstream of the municipal well field in the San Simeon Basin could raise upstream water levels by as much as 12 feet without causing significant water-table mounding or seawater intrusion. Decreases in agricultural pumping after a winter without streamflow could prevent seawater intrusion while allowing municipal pumping to continue at normal rates.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Variations in Community Exposure and Sensitivity to Tsunami Hazards on the Open-Ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca Coasts of Washington

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential future events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington. Although potential tsunami-inundation zones from a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake have been delineated, the amount and type of human development in tsunami-prone areas have not been documented. A vulnerability assessment using geographic-information-system tools was conducted to document variations in developed land, human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities relative to CSZ-related tsunami-inundation zones among communities on the open-ocean and Strait of Juan de Fuca coasts of Washington (including Clallam, Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific Counties). The tsunami-inundation zone in these counties contains 42,972 residents (24 percent of the total study-area population), 24,934 employees (33 percent of the total labor force), and 17,029 daily visitors to coastal Washington State Parks. The tsunami-inundation zone also contains 2,908 businesses that generate $4.6 billion in annual sales volume (31 and 40 percent of study-area totals, respectively) and tax parcels with a combined total value of $4.5 billion (25 percent of the study-area total). Although occupancy values are not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone also contains numerous dependent-population facilities (for example, schools and child-day-care centers), public venues (for example, religious organizations), and critical facilities (for example, police stations and public-work facilities). Racial diversity of residents in tsunami-prone areas is low?89 percent of residents are White and 8 percent are American Indian or Alaska Native. Nineteen percent of the residents in the tsunami-inundation zone are over 65 years in age, 30 percent of the residents live on unincorporated county lands, and 35 percent of the households are renter occupied. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are largely in businesses related to health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and retail trade, reflecting businesses that cater to a growing retiree and tourist population. Community vulnerability, described here by exposure (the amount of assets in tsunami-prone areas) and sensitivity (the relative percentage of assets in tsunami-prone areas) varies among 13 incorporated cities, 7 Indian reservations, and 4 counties. The City of Aberdeen has the highest relative community exposure to tsunamis, whereas the City of Long Beach has the highest relative community sensitivity. Levels of community exposure and sensitivity to tsunamis are found to be related to the amount and percentage, respectively, of a community?s land that is in a tsunami-inundation zone. This report will further the dialogue on societal risk to tsunami hazards in Washington and help risk managers to determine where additional risk-reduction strategies may be needed.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Submarine ground-water discharge and fate along the coast of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Island of Hawai'i: Part 2, spatial and temporal variations in salinity, radium-isotope activity, and nutrient concentrations in coastal waters, December 2003 - April 2006

The aquatic resources of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, including rocky shoreline, fishponds, and anchialine pools, provide habitat to numerous plant and animal species and offer recreational opportunities to local residents and tourists. A considerable amount of submarine groundwater discharge was known to occur in the park, and this discharge was suspected to influence the park's water quality. Thus, the goal of this study was to characterize spatial and temporal variations in the quality and quantity of groundwater discharge in the park. Samples were collected in December 2003, November 2005, and April 2006 from the coastal ocean, beach pits, three park observation wells, anchialine pools, fishponds, and Honokohau Harbor. The activities of two Ra isotopes commonly used as natural ground-water tracers (223Ra and 224Ra), salinity, and nutrient concentrations were measured. Fresh ground water composed a significant proportion (8-47 volume percent) of coastal-ocean water. This percentage varied widely between study sites, indicating significant spatial variation in submarine groundwater discharge at small (meter to kilometer) scales. Nitrate + nitrite, phosphate, and silica concentrations were significantly higher in nearshore coastal-ocean samples relative to samples collected 1 km or more offshore, and linear regression showed that most of this difference was due to fresh ground-water discharge. High-Ra-isotope-activity, higher-salinity springs were a secondary source of nutrients, particularly phosphate, at Honokohau Harbor and Aiopio Fishtrap. Salinity, Ra-isotope activity, and nutrient concentrations appeared to vary in response to the daily tidal cycle, although little seasonal variation was observed, indicating that submarine ground-water discharge may buffer the park's water quality against the severe seasonal changes that would occur in a system where freshwater inputs were dominated by rivers and runoff. Ra-isotope-activity ratios indicated that the residence time of water in the coastal ocean at the study sites was less than 1.6 days. We calculated water and nutrient fluxes into the coastal ocean at each study site. This study provides a baseline description of submarine ground-water discharge in Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park and its effect on the park's aquatic resources. We hope that it will allow park managers to better assess potential future changes in ground-water quality and quantity and conserve the park's valuable resources.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Demography and behavior of polar bears summering on land in Alaska

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea population (SB) are spending increased time on the coastal North Slope of Alaska between July and October (Gleason and Rode 2010). The duration spent on land by polar bears, satellite collared on the sea-ice in the spring, during the summer and fall has also increased (USGS, unpublished data; Figure 1). This change in polar bear ecology has relevance for human-bear interactions, subsistence harvest, prevalence of defense kills, and disturbance associated with existing land-based development [e.g., National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (NPRA), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)], Native Alaskan communities, recreation (ANWR) and tourism (e.g., bear viewing in Kaktovik, AK). These activities have the potential to impact, in new ways, the status of the entire SB population. Concomitantly, the change in polar bear ecology will impact these human activities, and a base-line characterization of this phenomenon can better inform mitigation (e.g., industry permitting under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act). In this study we aim to characterize the demography, habitat-use, and aspects of foraging ecology and health of polar bears spending fall on land. The SB population is characterized by a divergent-sea ice ecology, where polar bears typically spend most of the year on the sea-ice, even as the pack ice retreats northward, away from the coast, to its minimal extent in September (Amstrup et al. 2008; Durner et al. 2009). From 2000 – 2005, using coastal aerial surveys, Schliebe et al. (2008) observed between 3.7 and 8% of polar bears from SB (~ 60 – 120 of 1526, Regher et al. 2006) on land during the autumn. Sighting probability was not estimated in these surveys, and therefore the numbers represent minimum numbers of bears on land. Our analysis of USGS data suggest an annual average of 15% (± 3%, SE) of polar bears satellite-tagged on the spring-time sea ice (total n = 18 of 124 satellite tags, 2003 – 2009) come to land during July – October. Based on these data, and an assumption that bears satellite-tagged on the spring time sea ice are representative of the entire SB population of independent bears, there would be an average of 230 bears on land each fall. In contrast to the SB population, in five of the world’s 19 polar bear populations (Obbard et al. 2010), polar bears spend significant periods of time on land (1 – 5 months) when ice completely melts. In these seasonal-ice populations (Amstrup et al. 2008), polar bears are largely in a hypophagic condition (e.g., Hobson et al. 2009), relying on fat stores from the spring hyperphagic season, when ringed seals (Phoca hispida) pup. In general, these seasonal-ice populations are demographically productive (Taylor et al. 2005), although recently an increase in the ice-free season has resulted in a population decline in western Hudson Bay (Stirling et al. 1999; Regehr et al. 2007). There have been measured declines in the body condition and productivity of polar bears in SB, and changes in these parameters have been linked to declining optimal ice habitat (e.g., Durner et al. 2009; Regehr et al. 2010). We do not understand the relationship between land-use and the overall status of the population. Individual polar bears that use land may have increased or decreased fitness, in comparison to polar bears that remain on ice in the autumn. This project, which focuses on the biology of animals that spend time on-shore, will help address this question. This project is funded by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) under Agreement No. M09PG00025 and the USGS Outer Continental Shelf Program (OCS) for FY 2009-2014. Parts of this study are also funded by US Fish and Wildlife Service, Office of Marine Mammals Management; the Bureau of Land Management; and the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management. This report is comprehensive, describing results for achieving the overlap

Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea↗