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USGS2023

Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

Objective Managers can modify river flow regimes using fish monitoring data to minimize impacts from water management infrastructure. For example, operation of the gate-controlled Delta Cross Channel (DCC) in California can negatively affect the endangered Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . Although guidelines have been developed for DCC operations by using real-time juvenile fish sampling count data, there is uncertainty about how environmental conditions influence fish occupancy and the extent to which those relationships are affected by sampling and identification error. Methods We evaluated the effect of environmental conditions, imperfect detection, and misidentification error on salmon occupancy by analyzing data using hierarchical multistate occupancy models. A total of 14,147 trawl tows and beach seine hauls were conducted on 1058 sampling days between October and December from 1996 to 2019. During these surveys, 2803 juvenile winter-run Chinook Salmon were identified, and approximately 29% of the sampling days had at least one winter-run juvenile detected. Result The probability of misidentifying an individual juvenile winter-run Chinook Salmon in the field was estimated to be 0.056 based on fish identification examinations and genetic sampling. Occupancy varied considerably and was related to flow characteristics, water clarity, weather, time of year, and whether occupancy was detected during the previous sampling day. However, these relationships and their significance changed considerably when accounting for imperfect detection and the probability of misidentifying individual juvenile salmon. Detection was <0.3 under average sampling conditions during a single sample and was influenced by flow, water clarity, site, and volume sampled. Conclusion Our modeling results indicate that DCC gate closure decisions could occur on fewer days when imperfect detection and misidentification error are not accounted for. These findings demonstrate the need to account for identification and detection error while using monitoring data to assess factors influencing fish occupancy and inform future management decisions.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2021

Assessing potential stock structure of adult Coho Salmon in a small Alaska watershed: Quantifying run timing, spawning locations, and holding areas with radiotelemetry

Run timing and spatial locations of spawning habitats are often used to identify stocks for conservation planning or management of salmonid fishes. Although complex stock structure is most common within large watersheds with diverse habitats, even small drainages can produce multiple co-occurring spatially or temporally isolated populations or “stocks.” This project sought to address the potential existence of stock structure of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in a small coastal watershed on Kodiak, Alaska that supports vital subsistence and recreational fisheries and is currently managed as a single stock. We radio-tagged a total of 348 adult Coho Salmon upon freshwater entry into the Buskin River across three spawning seasons (2015–2017) and tracked in-river movements to the final locations where mortality signals were recorded. We identified two primary spawning habitats within the system: main-stem and lake tributaries, with 54% (range of 47% to 61%) of tagged fish with determined fates tracked to main-stem river spawning areas and 46% (range 39% to 53%) presumably spawning in small tributaries of the 1-km 2 Buskin Lake at the headwater of the watershed. Despite distinct spatial differences in spawning locations, main-stem and tributary spawners did not differ in migration timing into freshwater (difference in run timing of main-stem versus tributary spawners = 1 d) nor body size (main-stem mean body length, mideye to tail fork = 625 mm, tributary mean = 613 mm). Unexpectedly, we determined nearly 70% of all Coho Salmon spent at least some time in Buskin Lake, including 54% of main-stem spawners, suggesting a potential role of Buskin Lake as an important staging habitat for premature migrating adult Coho Salmon who enter freshwater in advance of final maturation. We also identified areas consistently used for holding prior to spawning that could be used in spatial management planning and during times of necessary conservation to ensure integrity of the stock for the future.

Alaska↗

USGS2005

Distribution and abundance of nonnative fishes in streams of the western United States

This report presents data from one of the largest standardized stream surveys conducted in he western United States, which shows that one of every four individual fish in streams of 12 western states are nonnative. The states surveyed included Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. The most widely distributed and abundant nonnative fishes in the western USA were brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis, brown trout Salmo trutta, rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, common carp Cyprinus carpio, smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu, largemouth bass M. salmoides, green sunfish Lepomis cyanellus, fathead minnow Pimephales promelas, yellow perch Percaflavescens, yellow bullhead Ameiurus natalis, cutthroat trout O. clarkii, western mosquitofish Gambusia affinis, golden shiner Notemigonus crysoleucas, channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus, and red shiner Cyprinella lutrensis. The greatest abundance and distribution of nonnative fishes was in interior states, and the most common nonnatives were introduced for angling. Nonnative fishes were widespread in pristine to highly disturbed streams influenced by all types of land use practices. We present ranges in water temperature, flow, stream order, riparian cover, human disturbance, and other environmental conditions where the 10 most common introduced species were found. Of the total western U.S. stream length bearing fish, 50.1% contained nonnative fishes while 17.9% contained physical environment that was ranked highly or moderately disturbed by humans. Introduced fishes can adversely affect stream communities, and they are much more widespread in western U.S. streams than habitat destruction. The widespread distribution and high relative abundance of nonnative fishes and their documented negative effects suggest their management and control should elicit at least as much attention as habitat preservation in the protection of native western U.S. stream biota. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2008

Estimating fish body condition with quantile regression

We used quantile regression to compare the body condition of walleye Sander vitreus and white bass Morone chrysops before (1980-1988) and after (1989-2004) the establishment of alewives Alosa pseudoharengus in Lake McConaughy, Nebraska. Higher quantiles (percentiles = 100% x quantiles [0, 1]) of weight (W) at the same total length (TL) were indicative of better body condition in an allometric growth model that included separate slopes and intercepts for the before and after groups. All quantiles of walleye weights by TL increased in the years after alewife introduction, ranging from 1.01 to 1.12 times weights in the years before alewife introduction, with greatest increases for the lower (<0.50) quantiles and greater TLs. Quantiles up to 0.25 (the lowest 25th percentiles) of white bass weights were reduced in years after alewife introduction for TLs less than 300 mm, ranging from 0.78 to 0.98 times weights in the years before alewife introduction. However, quantiles greater than or equal to 0.50 (the upper 50th percentiles) of white bass weights increased for all TLs, ranging from 1.01 to 1.06 times the pre-1988 weights. A three-group analysis, which improved the model fit for longer white bass, indicated a reduction (0.80-1.0) in white bass body condition across all TLs in the first 2 years (1989-1990) after alewife introduction, whereas body condition actually improved (1.02-1.12) across all TLs in later years (1991-2004). Thus, after the establishment of alewives in 1988, walleye body condition improved for all fish at all lengths (the greatest improvement occurring among fish in poorer condition), whereas white bass body condition was initially reduced for all fish at all lengths for 2 years and improved in subsequent years. The approach that we developed for comparing fish body condition before and after a management action in Lake McConaughy could be applied to other weight-length data sets typically evaluated with relative weight indices. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

Development of genetic baseline information to support the conservation and management of wild Brook Trout in North Carolina

Following centuries of declines, there is growing interest in conserving extant wild populations and reintroducing Brook Trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) populations of native ancestry. A population genetic baseline can enhance conservation outcomes and promote restoration success. Consequently, it is important to document existing patterns of genetic variation across the landscape and translate these data into an approachable format for fisheries managers. We genotyped 9,507 Brook Trout representing 467 wild collections at 12 microsatellite loci to establish a genetic baseline for North Carolina, USA. Rarefied allelic richness and observed heterozygosity, which reflect within‐population diversity, were low to moderate relative to levels typically observed at higher latitudes (means = 3.12 and 0.42, respectively). Effective population sizes varied widely, but were often very low (151 collections with an estimated N e < 10). Despite decades of intensive stocking across the state, we found little to no evidence of hatchery introgression in most populations. Although genetic variation was significant at a variety of spatial scales (mean pairwise F ’ ST = 0.73), substantial genetic variation occurred between patches within individual watersheds. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) found that a substantial portion (28.5%) of the observed genetic variation was attributed to differences among populations, with additional genetic variation among hydrological units (HUCs; 16.0%, 16.6%, 12.1%, and 9.4% of the overall variation among twelve‐, ten‐, eight‐, and six‐digit HUCs, respectively). We discuss a suite of potential applications for this type of genetic data to enhance management outcomes, such as conservation prioritization and selection of source stocks for reintroductions or genetic rescue.

North Carolina↗

USGS2017

Nonnative trout invasions combined with climate change threaten persistence of isolated cutthroat trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains

Effective conservation of Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lineages native to the Rocky Mountains will require estimating effects of multiple stressors and directing management toward the most important ones. Recent analyses have focused on the direct and indirect effects of a changing climate on contemporary ranges, which are much reduced from historic ranges owing to past habitat loss and nonnative trout invasions. However, nonnative trout continue to invade Cutthroat Trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains. Despite management to isolate and protect these native populations, nonnatives still surmount barriers or are illegally stocked above them. We used data on the incidence of invasions by nonnative Brook Trout (BT) Salvelinus fontinalis and the rate of their invasion upstream to simulate effects on a set of 309 conservation populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT) O. c. pleuriticus isolated in headwater stream fragments. A previously developed Bayesian network model was used to compare direct and indirect effects of climate change (CC) alone on population persistence versus the added effects of BT invasions. Although CC alone is predicted to extirpate only one CRCT population by 2080, BT invasions and CC together are predicted to completely extirpate 122 populations (39% of the total) if managers do not intervene. Another 113 populations (37%) will be at risk of extirpation after CC and invasions, primarily owing to stochastic risks in short stream fragments that are similar under CC alone. Overall, invasions and CC will reduce the number of stream fragments that are long enough to buffer CRCT populations against negative genetic consequences and stochastic disturbances by 48, a decrease of 38% compared to CC alone. High priorities are (1) research to estimate how CC and human factors alter the incidence and rate of BT invasions and (2) management to prevent new illegal introductions, repair inadequate barriers, and monitor and address new invasions.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2026

Effect of rotenone treatment on alpine stream invertebratecommunities in Colorado

Objective: Introduction of non-native salmonids to western United States streams has resulted in extirpation and even extinction of native cutthroat trout. Once thought to be extinct, a genetically verified population of Greenback Cutthroat Trout (GBCT) Oncorhynchus virginalis stomias was identified and used for population re-establishment efforts. To restore native trout habitat, stream reaches above a dispersal barrier are typically treated with a piscicide (i.e., rotenone) to remove non-native trout before reintroduction of natives. One concern with this method is the possible impact to non-target invertebrates, which are an important food source for trout, and a drastic disturbance to invertebrates following rotenone treatment could negatively affect native trout establishment. Methods: Two alpine streams were treated with liquid rotenone via drip stations during two consecutive days. Invertebrate communities were sampled for six years in two streams where GBCT was reintroduced. Pre- and posttreatment sampling allowed for examination of short-term, intermediate, and long-term responses to invertebrate communities. Results: Negative short-term responses were detected for total taxa richness, EPT richness, and percent Heptageniidae density immediately following rotenone application. However, most community metrics returned to pretreatment values within 1 to 2 years posttreatment. Invertebrate community changes between pretreatment and 3 to 5 years posttreatment were observed with increased percent Chironomidae density and decreased percent EPT (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera) density. Conclusion: This study provides insight into invertebrate community response to rotenone treatment in high alpine streams and adds to the current literature which displays short-term declines in invertebrates following rotenone and recovery of most aspects of the initial invertebrate community within one year posttreatment. Lay Summary Rotenone application for cutthroat trout habitat restoration negatively affected invertebrate communities in the 1 to 2 months following treatment; however, most community values recovered to pretreatment levels within 1 to 2 years. Keywords: native fish, cutthroat trout, fish management, invertebrate community, habitat restoration

Colorado↗

USGS2002

Development of a stream habitat index for the Northern Lakes and Forest Ecoregions

Physical habitat was quantified in 105 randomly selected streams across the Northern Lakes and Forests Ecoregion during 1998 and 1999 to develop a stream habitat index for the region. Physical habitat measures (106) were classified into four groups: substrate, instream cover, riparian zone–land use, and geomorphology–hydrology. Variable reduction procedures yielded seven variables: sinuosity, percent of substrate gravel or larger, percent substrate as detritus or muck, percent of bank with forested cover, amount of bank erosion, number of large logs per 100 m, and mean length of pools. Streams were separated by a gradient value of 3 m/km (low N = 70; high N = 35) and assigned to model and test data sets. For low-gradient streams in the model data set, the seven habitat variables explained 47% of the variation in index of biotic integrity (IBI) scores. To produce the habitat index, the coefficients in the regression were used to weight each of the seven variables. For low-gradient streams in the test data set, the habitat index explained 20% of the variation in IBI scores. A habitat index could not be developed for high-gradient sites, probably due to the low number of sites. Comparison of habitat to IBI scores provides resource managers with a method to evaluate the contribution of habitat quality to the IBI score.

Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2006

Abundance trends and status of the Little Colorado River population of humpback chub

The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture-recapture-based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid-1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age-2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back-calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2006.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2026

Egg thiamine concentrations reflect dietary differences between four hatchery strains, including two morphotypes, of Lake Trout in Lake Ontario

Objective Test whether dietary differences among hatchery strains of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush were associated with variation in egg thiamine concentrations and assess the potential for using strain-specific traits to mitigate thiamine deficiency complex (TDC) in Lake Ontario restoration efforts. Methods Stomach content analysis and stable isotope mixing models were used to compare diets among four hatchery strains of Lake Trout, representing lean and humper morphotypes. Egg thiamine concentrations were measured to test whether dietary differences correlated with susceptibility to TDC. Results Significant differences in diet and egg thiamine concentrations were observed among Lake Trout strains. A humper-like morphotype strain exhibited elevated thiamine levels, which were associated with reduced consumption of prey known to degrade thiamine levels when consumed, Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax , and increased reliance on Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus or sculpin species (Slimy Sculpin Cottus cognatus and Deepwater Sculpin Myoxocephalus thompsonii ). These findings support the link between the consumption of Alewife and Rainbow Smelt and thiamine deficiency. Conclusions Our findings support a link between strain-specific dietary preferences and susceptibility to TDC in Lake Trout. Preferential stocking of strains less prone to TDC, such as the strain derived from a humper morph from Lake Superior, could enhance restoration success in Lake Ontario. This strategy may be especially effective given the continued dominance of Alewife in the lake's prey base and the current management priorities supporting fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2017

Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N -mixture model. Multinomial N -mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N -mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N -mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the hierarchical framework. We demonstrate the application of this contemporary population estimation method to address a longstanding stream fish management issue. We also detail the advantages and trade-offs of hierarchical population estimation methods relative to CPUE and estimation methods that model each site separately.

Missouri, Oklahoma↗

USGS2016

Developing recreational harvest regulations for an unexploited lake trout population

Developing fishing regulations for previously unexploited populations presents numerous challenges, many of which stem from a scarcity of baseline information about abundance, population productivity, and expected angling pressure. We used simulation models to test the effect of six management strategies (catch and release; trophy, minimum, and maximum length limits; and protected and exploited slot length limits) on an unexploited population of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in Follensby Pond, a 393-ha lake located in New York State’s Adirondack Park. We combined field and literature data and mark–recapture abundance estimates to parameterize an age-structured population model and used the model to assess the effects of each management strategy on abundance, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and harvest over a range of angler effort (0–2,000 angler-days/year). Lake Trout density (3.5 fish/ha for fish ≥ age 13, the estimated age at maturity) was similar to densities observed in other unexploited systems, but growth rate was relatively slow. Maximum harvest occurred at levels of effort ≤ 1,000 angler-days/year in all the scenarios considered. Regulations that permitted harvest of large postmaturation fish, such as New York’s standard Lake Trout minimum size limit or a trophy size limit, resulted in low harvest and high angler CPUE. Regulations that permitted harvest of small and sometimes immature fish, such as a protected slot or maximum size limit, allowed high harvest but resulted in low angler CPUE and produced rapid declines in harvest with increases in effort beyond the effort consistent with maximum yield. Management agencies can use these results to match regulations to management goals and to assess the risks of different management options for unexploited Lake Trout populations and other fish species with similar life history traits.

New York↗

USGS2002

Comparison of subyearling fall chinook salmon's use of riprap revetments and unaltered habitats in Lake Wallula of the Columbia river

Subyearling fall chinook salmon's Oncorhynchus tshawytscha use of unaltered and riprap habitats in Lake Wallula of the Columbia River was determined with point abundance data collected by electrofishing in May 1994 and 1995. We documented the presence or absence of subyearlings at 277 sample sites and collected physical habitat information at each site. Based on logistic regression, we found that the probability of fish presence was greater in unaltered shoreline habitats than in riprap habitats. Substrate size was the most important factor in determining fish presence, with dominant substrates larger than 256 mm having the lowest probability of fish presence. Water velocity, also included in our model due to its biological importance, was not a significant factor affecting presence or absence (P = 0.1102). The correct prediction rate of fish presence or absence in our sample sites using cross validation was 67%. Our model showed that substrate was the most important factor determining subyearling habitat use, but the model did not include other habitat variables known to be important to subyearlings in more diverse systems. We suggest that resource managers consider alternative methods of bank stabilization that are compatible with the habitat requirements of the fish that use them.

Washington↗

USGS2006

Predicting crappie recruitment in Ohio reservoirs with spawning stock size, larval density, and chlorophyll concentrations

Stock-recruit models typically use only spawning stock size as a predictor of recruitment to a fishery. In this paper, however, we used spawning stock size as well as larval density and key environmental variables to predict recruitment of white crappies Pomoxis annularis and black crappies P. nigromaculatus, a genus notorious for variable recruitment. We sampled adults and recruits from 11 Ohio reservoirs and larvae from 9 reservoirs during 1998-2001. We sampled chlorophyll as an index of reservoir productivity and obtained daily estimates of water elevation to determine the impact of hydrology on recruitment. Akaike's information criterion (AIC) revealed that Ricker and Beverton-Holt stock-recruit models that included chlorophyll best explained the variation in larval density and age-2 recruits. Specifically, spawning stock catch per effort (CPE) and chlorophyll explained 63-64% of the variation in larval density. In turn, larval density and chlorophyll explained 43-49% of the variation in age-2 recruit CPE. Finally, spawning stock CPE and chlorophyll were the best predictors of recruit CPE (i.e., 74-86%). Although larval density and recruitment increased with chlorophyll, neither was related to seasonal water elevation. Also, the AIC generally did not distinguish between Ricker and Beverton-Holt models. From these relationships, we concluded that crappie recruitment can be limited by spawning stock CPE and larval production when spawning stock sizes are low (i.e., CPE , 5 crappies/net-night). At higher levels of spawning stock sizes, spawning stock CPE and recruitment were less clearly related. To predict recruitment in Ohio reservoirs, managers should assess spawning stock CPE with trap nets and estimate chlorophyll concentrations. To increase crappie recruitment in reservoirs where recruitment is consistently poor, managers should use regulations to increase spawning stock size, which, in turn, should increase larval production and recruits to the fishery.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2016

A framework for assessing the feasibility of native fish conservation translocations: Applications to threatened bull trout

There is an urgent need to consider more aggressive and direct interventions for the conservation of freshwater fishes that are threatened by invasive species, habitat loss, and climate change. Conservation introduction (moving a species outside its indigenous range to other areas where conditions are predicted to be more suitable) is one type of translocation strategy that fisheries managers can use to establish new conservation populations in areas of refugia. To date, however, there are few examples of successful conservation-based introductions. Many attempts fail to establish new populations—in part because environmental factors that might influence success are inadequately evaluated before the translocation is implemented. We developed a framework to assess the feasibility of rescuing threatened fish populations through translocation into historically unoccupied stream and lake habitats. The suitability of potential introduction sites was evaluated based on four major components: the recipient habitat, recipient community, donor population, and future threats. Specific questions were then developed to evaluate each major component. The final assessment was based on a scoring system that addressed each question by using criteria developed from characteristics representative of highly suitable habitats and populations. This framework was used to evaluate the proposed within-drainage translocation of three Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus populations in Glacier National Park, Montana. Our results indicated that within-drainage translocation is a feasible strategy for conserving locally adapted populations of Bull Trout through the creation of new areas of refugia in Glacier National Park. The framework provides a flexible platform that can help managers make informed decisions for moving threatened fishes into new areas of refugia for conservation and recovery programs.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2019

Predicting persistence of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout populations in an uncertain future

The Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (RGCT ) occupies just 12% of its ancestral range. As the southernmost subspecies of Cutthroat Trout, we expect a warming climate to bring additional stressors to RGCT populations, such as increased stream temperatures, reduced streamflows, and increased incidence of wildfire. We developed a Bayesian network (BN ) model using site‐specific data, empirical research, and expert knowledge to estimate the probability of persistence for each of the 121 remaining RGCT conservation populations and to rank the severity of the threats they face. These inputs quantified the genetic risks (e.g., inbreeding risk and hybridization risk), population demographics (disease risk, habitat suitability, and survival), and probability of stochastic disturbances (stream drying risk and wildfire risk) in an uncertain future. We also created stream temperature and base flow discharge models coupled with regionally downscaled climate projections to predict future abiotic conditions at short‐term (2040s) and long‐term (2080s) time horizons. In the absence of active management, we predicted a decrease in the average probability of population persistence from 0.53 (current) to 0.31 (2040s) and 0.26 (2080s). Only 11% of these populations were predicted to have a greater than 75% chance of persisting to the 2080s. Threat of invasion by nonnative trout had the strongest effect on population persistence. Of the 78 populations that are already invaded or lacking complete barriers, 60% were estimated to be extirpated by 2080 and the remainder averaged only a 10% chance of persistence. In contrast, the effects of increased stream temperatures were predicted to affect the future persistence of only 9% of the 121 RGCT populations remaining, as most have been restricted to high‐elevation habitats that are cold enough to buffer against some stream warming. Our BN model provides a framework for evaluating threats and will be useful to guide management actions that are likely to provide the most benefit for long‐term conservation.

New Mexico, Colorado↗

USGS2021

Historical data provide important context for understanding declines in Cutthroat Trout

We used historical stocking and population survey records of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii bouvieri and other salmonids in the North Fork Shoshone River drainage, Wyoming to summarize fish stocking history and population trends. Based on 98 years of historical records, we found that despite extensive stocking of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout and minimal stocking of nonnative salmonids after about 1950, populations of wild Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout declined relative to those of nonnative salmonid species. The timing of increases in nonnative salmonids (1970s) did not coincide with their period of most intensive stocking (1935–1950). It is plausible that Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout populations persisted because of high levels of supplemental stocking from 1935 to 1965 and declined with reduced stocking efforts in the 1970s, thereby allowing the increase of introduced nonnative salmonids. The establishment of nonnative salmonids likely further reduced stocking success of Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout due to competition and hybridization. This study demonstrates that an understanding of long-term stocking records and population survey data can be useful for developing and implementing successful management frameworks for the conservation of imperiled fish populations across the United States.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Effect of passive integrated transponder tag size on survival, tag loss, and growth of Santa Ana Sucker

Objective The Santa Ana Sucker Pantosteus santaanae is endemic to southern California and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Seasonal limitations on conventional sampling and inconsistencies in survey methodologies have led to an incomplete understanding of population dynamics. Alternative sampling methods have the potential to fill important knowledge gaps in biology and life history. One option is to use passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags to identify individuals and track their movements. The objective of this study was to test the effect of PIT tag size on survival, tag loss, and growth of Santa Ana Suckers. Methods Sixty-one Santa Ana Suckers were randomly assigned to one of three treatments (control: N = 20; 8-mm PIT tag: N = 21; or 12-mm PIT tag: N = 20). A full-duplex PIT tag was injected into each fish, and lengths (standard, fork, and total length) and weight were recorded. Fish remained in raceways for 36 d, after which they were retrieved, scanned, and remeasured. Results There were five fish mortalities within 48 h of tagging, resulting in an 87.8% overall survival rate. There were two fish mortalities from the 8-mm tag treatment and three mortalities from the 12-mm tag treatment. One fish from each tagging treatment lost their tag, resulting in a 5.6% overall tag loss rate. The Fisher’s exact test indicated no statistically significant difference in survival or tag loss between treatments. The ordinary least squares regression detected no effect of tag size on growth for Santa Ana Suckers. Conclusions Results suggest that 8- and 12-mm PIT tags are suitable options for tagging Santa Ana Suckers measuring at least 62 and 70 mm fork length, respectively. Supplementing the current sampling strategy with PIT tags could help monitoring efforts to expand spatially and temporally while providing expanded population data to inform adaptive management actions for the Santa Ana Sucker.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗