USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Nature Communications”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2026

Socio-ecological impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles urban fires on communities, neighborhoods, and homes

Human settlements are increasingly being impacted by urban fires initiated by wildfires. Metrics such as area burned and number of structures destroyed are important, but research often overlooks the socio-ecological complexity of urban fires. We study the impacts of the 2025 Los Angeles fires on two communities at the neighborhood and residential parcel scales. Geospatial analyses and econometric modeling explore the relationships between urban morphology, socio-demographic factors, and home destruction. Here we show that socio-ecological characteristics and scale are key in parsing the dynamics of urban fires. Also, new socio-demographic populations are being affected and urban morphology metrics are more important than vegetation cover. Despite parallels with 19 th and early 20 th century urban conflagrations, understanding these re-emerging urban fires requires transdisciplinary approaches and unique metrics. Investigating the socio-ecological scales and dynamics of urban fires provides a valuable next step towards understanding and adapting to the risk associated with these disasters.

California↗
USGS2026

The accelerating loss and shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands

Tidal wetlands are critical ecosystems for coastal sustainability, yet despite growing regulatory protection, they continue to decline globally. Their long-term resilience to interacting chronic stressors and extreme events remains uncertain, in part because comprehensive, high-frequency monitoring has been lacking. While direct land-use conversion has been substantially restricted in the United States, the true trajectory of these protected habitats has remained unclear. Here, we use four decades of high-resolution satellite records to analyze the shifting dynamics of US tidal wetlands. We reveal a widespread and previously unquantified acceleration in the rate of tidal wetland loss, amounting to a net loss of −1640 km 2 at the rate of −40.53 km 2 year −1 , accelerating by −0.73 km 2 year −2 , of which tidal marsh contributed the majority of this loss with a cumulative decline of 1567 km 2 . Furthermore, we show that the drivers of this decline are shifting: while chronic stressors like relative sea level rise have caused the largest cumulative loss (~60% of the total area loss), acute shocks from extreme weather now dominate (1.4 times that of the chronic stressors) the acceleration of that loss. By contrast, direct human activities were a minor driver, accounting for only 4% of total observed losses. These findings indicate that the resilience of these protected ecosystems is declining. It provides an urgent warning that existing conservation strategies, initially concerned with direct human impacts and increasingly focused on relative sea level rise as a slow-moving pressure, are ill-equipped for a future of increasing extreme weather events and highlights the need to redesign adaptation policies.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

Rapid earthquake magnitude classification via P-wave strains from borehole strainmeters and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) offers a promising approach for earthquake early warning (EEW) in settings where seismic networks are costly to maintain. By repurposing fiber-optic cables as dense strainmeter arrays, DAS enables real-time earthquake detection wherever those fibers are accessible. However, poor azimuthal coverage and challenges in estimating magnitude from strain measurements remain key hurdles in applying for earthquake monitoring. Here, we develop a machine learning method to distinguish large (M≥5.4) earthquakes from smaller ones within the first 4 seconds of a strain waveform after a P-wave arrival without determining location. Using ensemble decision tree models trained on borehole strainmeter data (3.5≤M≤7.1) and tested on onshore DAS waveforms (including the 2024 M7 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake), we find that low-frequency (0.2–0.5 Hz) continuous wavelet transform coefficients are the strongest predictors of magnitude, in addition to strain amplitude. Both DAS and borehole strainmeters effectively capture long-period strain signals, making these findings valuable for EEW systems. Our method shows high precision compared to the real-time EEW system, ShakeAlert®, supporting the position that DAS is a viable technology for earthquake monitoring and magnitude classification.

California↗
USGS2026

Functional restructuring of the global soil microbiome under multiple stressors

Microbes, as the planet’s most abundant and diverse organisms, drive soil functions globally and are vulnerable to environmental stressors triggered by global change. Yet, knowledge regarding the impacts of multiple environmental stressors on their functional profiles as well as the consequences for soil functionality largely remains unknown. Here, we analyze two global-scale datasets including information on soil metagenomics and multiple environmental stressors. We find that across terrestrial ecosystems worldwide, up to 60% of all functional genes significantly shift when soil microbes experience the high-level of concurrent stressors. In this regard, the relative abundances of genes involved in microbial growth are negatively linked to the increasing number of stressors. Conversely, those genes linked to stress resistance and energy production exhibit positive responses. Taken together, our findings highlight a significant restructuring of global soil functional microbiomes in response to multiple environmental stressors. Consequently, such restructuring drives community-level shifts in matter and energy reallocations, thereby impacting the maintenance of soil functionality under the projected global change.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2026

Controls on natural hydrogen generation during serpentinization of mantle rocks

Mantle rocks undergoing serpentinization can generate significant amounts of natural hydrogen, yet the rates and controlling processes remain poorly understood. Here, we constrain the possible hydrogen generation rates in two distinct mantle rock types, the fertile lherzolites of the Western Pyrenees and the depleted harzburgites of Northern California, to relatively low rates of ~0.1 to ~0.5 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹ km⁻³ of reactive rock. When integrated over the full reactive volumes, this corresponds to total production rates of ~300 to ~600 tonnes H₂ yr⁻¹. By combining three-dimensional geophysical inversion with numerical modelling of fluid-rock processes, we show that hydrogen generation rates are mainly limited by H₂ saturation in the fluid and reaction kinetics. Under these constraints, hydrogen generation in mantle-derived serpentinization systems proceeds slowly, making rapid large-scale replenishment unlikely and suggesting that large, economically relevant accumulations, would require timescales of thousands to tens of thousands of years to develop.

northern California, western Pyrenees↗
USGS2026

Temperate wetlands lose climate-cooling capacity under warming

Temperate inland wetlands have long been viewed as climate regulators, with sustained CO₂ sequestration offsetting continuous CH₄ emissions over centennial–millennial timescales. However, the net climatic effect of these opposing fluxes remains uncertain under anthropogenic warming as they differ in both magnitude and atmospheric lifetime. We combine 19,000 CH₄ chamber measurements from 202 temperate inland wetlands with carbon burial rates from 16 dated sediment cores in North America’s Prairie Pothole Region to estimate greenhouse gas dynamics over two centuries. Here we show that CH₄ emissions rise by ~1.39 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over the historical period and are projected to approach 950 kg CH₄ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ under high-forcing scenarios by 2100, while CO₂ sequestration is expected to decline by ~0.3 kg CO₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, driving a shift toward persistent net CO₂-equivalent source behaviour and a weakening of the long-term cooling effect that wetlands have provided under natural conditions.

Prairie Pothole Region↗
USGS2026

Tectonically driven integration of the 4.8 Ma Colorado River USA tracked with detrital sanidine and fish genetics

The development of the continental-scale Colorado River system, western USA, from 8 to 4.8 Ma, is revealed using 60-40 Ma detrital sanidine tracer grains and fish phylogeny. Here we show that precursor paleoriver segments became integrated north to south as traced by 60-40 Ma sand grains that were derived from the north and sequentially appeared in the 25-8 Ma Browns Park Formation of Utah, 7-6 Ma upper Bidahochi Formation of Arizona, and 4.8 Ma Bouse Formation of the lower Colorado River and proto Gulf of California. This timing is mimicked by molecular clock estimates of divergence times among fish lineages. River integration was a response to headwater uplifts in the Yellowstone hotspot track and Rocky Mountains. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages refine the timing for mantle-drips that caused subsidence, then uplift, of depositional basins that influenced the integration pathway and tempo. The ~ 3-million-year timescale suggests that multiscale mantle-driven uplift, rather than lake spillover, was the primary driver for integration of the proto-Colorado River through Grand Canyon.

Colorado River↗
USGS2026

Previous prescribed burns saved thousands of ancient sequoias during historically unprecedented wildfires

Wildfires in California’s Sierra Nevada during 2020–2021 killed giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) at rates unseen for millennia, underscoring the vulnerability of highly fire-adapted trees to ongoing environmental change. Following a century of fire exclusion and fuel accumulation, the effectiveness of prescribed burns in reducing giant sequoia mortality from wildfire remained poorly quantified. Here we estimate mortality outcomes for 26,403 giant sequoias across 19 groves in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks following the Castle (2020) and KNP Complex (2021) wildfires using a Bayesian framework. We map tree mortality using a deep learning classifier integrating 3 m PlanetScope imagery, airborne lidar, and field observations. From an estimated 7,974 sequoia deaths (95% Bayesian credible interval (CI): 7,555–8,430), corresponding to 30.2% mortality (CI: 28.6–31.9%), we find previous prescribed burns (≤10 years prior) reduced mortality odds by 77% (CI: 69–83%), making treated trees nearly four times more likely to survive. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prescribed burns prevented at least 1,888 (CI: 1,487–2,302) deaths, and universal treatment would have saved an additional 3,888 (CI: 3,236–4,580) giant sequoias. These results show that prescribed burns substantially improve survival during extreme wildfires, offering guidance for conserving long-lived, fire-adapted forests under intensifying fire regimes.

California↗
USGS2026

The saline groundwater legacy of a large buried coastal paleo-estuary

Elevated groundwater salinity in coastal regions threatens the beneficial use of fresh groundwater. Coastal groundwater management typically focuses on preventing intrusion from modern sources of seawater; however, past geological processes can also leave a legacy of saline groundwater now hidden in the subsurface. Here, multiple extensive airborne electromagnetic surveys provide detailed evidence of residual salinity from a paleo-estuary filling a late Pleistocene incised valley impacting more than 10,000 km 2 that is now hidden beneath coastal Louisiana’s deltaic plain. Our results show that the three-dimensional pattern of saline groundwater beneath Louisiana mimics that of near-surface aquifers surrounding the modern Delaware Bay estuary, fingerprinting the signature of the past drowning of a large, incised valley of the Mississippi River following post-glacial sea-level rise. These findings demonstrate a new framework for understanding legacy sources of saltwater critical for managing stressed water resources along global coastlines.

Louisiana↗
USGS2026

Barrier island geomorphic complexity drives storm and post-storm response

Barrier islands are at the forefront of climate-driven changes, with their resiliency threatened by rapid fluctuations in the physical drivers that shape them. Quantifying magnitudes and directions of storm-driven sediment fluxes and rates and modes of sediment recovery is essential for predicting barrier island trajectories. Yet scarce shoreface observations have limited such efforts. Here, shoreface-inclusive measurements of barrier sediment fluxes over five years following an extreme storm reveal distinct sediment redistribution patterns that vary with island geomorphology. Overwash fluxes were low compared with seaward fluxes, inlet-related landward transport, and previously modeled estimates. Without these observations, models may overestimate island elevation-building capacity that is key to sea-level adaptability. Post-storm recovery was incomplete despite human intervention, altering barrier sediment distribution from pre-storm conditions. This may increase vulnerability to future storms and rising water levels and suggests management approaches tailored to island geometry may better compete with climate change effects.

New York↗
USGS2024

Snow avalanches are a primary climate-linked driver of mountain ungulate populations

Snow is a major, climate-sensitive feature of the Earth’s surface and catalyst of fundamentally important ecosystem processes. Understanding how snow influences sentinel species in rapidly changing mountain ecosystems is particularly critical. Whereas effects of snow on food availability, energy expenditure, and predation are well documented, we report how avalanches exert major impacts on an ecologically significant mountain ungulate - the coastal Alaskan mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ). Using long-term GPS data and field observations across four populations (421 individuals over 17 years), we show that avalanches caused 23−65% of all mortality, depending on area. Deaths varied seasonally and were directly linked to spatial movement patterns and avalanche terrain use. Population-level avalanche mortality, 61% of which comprised reproductively important prime-aged individuals, averaged 8% annually and exceeded 22% when avalanche conditions were severe. Our findings reveal a widespread but previously undescribed pathway by which snow can elicit major population-level impacts and shape demographic characteristics of slow-growing populations of mountain-adapted animals.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Ryder Glacier in northwest Greenland is shielded from warm Atlantic water by a bathymetric sill

The processes controlling advance and retreat of outlet glaciers in fjords draining the Greenland Ice Sheet remain poorly known, undermining assessments of their dynamics and associated sea-level rise in a warming climate. Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased six-fold over the last four decades, with discharge and melt from outlet glaciers comprising key components of this loss. Here we acquired oceanographic data and multibeam bathymetry in the previously uncharted Sherard Osborn Fjord in northwest Greenland where Ryder Glacier drains into the Arctic Ocean. Our data show that warmer subsurface water of Atlantic origin enters the fjord, but Ryder Glacier’s floating tongue at its present location is partly protected from the inflow by a bathymetric sill located in the innermost fjord. This reduces under-ice melting of the glacier, providing insight into Ryder Glacier’s dynamics and its vulnerability to inflow of Atlantic warmer water.

Ryder Glacier↗
USGS2021

Rapid metal pollutant deposition from the volcanic plume of Kīlauea, Hawai’i

Long-lived basaltic volcanic eruptions are a globally important source of environmentally reactive, volatile metal pollutant elements such as selenium, cadmium and lead. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea, Hawai’i produced exceptionally high discharge of metal pollutants, and was an unprecedented opportunity to track them from vent to deposition. Here we show, through geochemical sampling of the plume that volatile metal pollutants were depleted in the plume up to 100 times faster than refractory species, such as magnesium and iron. We propose that this rapid wet deposition of complexes containing reactive and potentially toxic volatile metal pollutants may disproportionately impact localised areas close to the vent. We infer that the relationship between volatility and solubility is an important control on the atmospheric behaviour of elements. We suggest that assessment of hazards from volcanic emissions should account for heterogeneous plume depletion of metal pollutants.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Over a third of groundwater in USA public-supply aquifers is Anthropocene-age and susceptible to surface contamination

The distribution of groundwater age is useful for evaluating the susceptibility and sustainability of groundwater resources. Here, we compute the aquifer-scale cumulative distribution function to characterize the age distribution for 21 Principal Aquifers that account for ~80% of public-supply pumping in the United States. The aquifer-scale cumulative distribution function for each Principal Aquifer was derived from an ensemble of modeled age distributions (~60 samples per aquifer) based on multiple tracers: tritium, tritiogenic helium-3, sulfur hexafluoride, chlorofluorocarbons, carbon-14, and radiogenic helium-4. Nationally, the groundwater is 38% Anthropocene (since 1953), 34% Holocene (75 – 11,800 years ago), and 28% Pleistocene (>11,800 years ago). The Anthropocene fraction ranges from <5 to 100%, indicating a wide range in susceptibility to land-surface contamination. The Pleistocene fraction of groundwater exceeds 50% in 7 eastern aquifers that are predominately confined. The Holocene fraction of groundwater exceeds 50% in 5 western aquifers that are predominately unconfined. The sustainability of pumping from these Principal Aquifers depends on rates of recharge and release of groundwater stored in fine-grained layers.

Nature Communications Earth & Environment↗
USGS2023

Dense geophysical observations reveal a triggered, concurrent multi-fault rupture at the Mendocino Triple Junction

A central question of earthquake science is how far ruptures can jump from one fault to another, because cascading ruptures can increase the shaking of a seismic event. Earthquake science relies on earthquake catalogs and therefore how complex ruptures get documented and cataloged has important implications. Recent investments in geophysical instrumentation allow us to resolve increasingly complex, multi-fault ruptures for even moderate-sized earthquakes. We combine dense seismic and geodetic measurements to reveal an enigmatic rupture in late 2021 at the Mendocino Triple Junction in northern California. We show that rupture was dynamically triggered, yet concurrent, on two distinct faults roughly 30 km apart. Thus, this rupture combines features of complex ruptures usually considered to be single earthquakes, and triggered ruptures considered as multiple earthquakes. This event illustrates that moderate-sized earthquakes can exhibit similar complexity to that more commonly documented for large earthquakes.

California↗
USGS2024

Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline

As thermal stress and disease outbreaks decimate coral reefs throughout the tropics, there is growing evidence that higher latitude marine environments may provide crucial refuges for many at-risk, temperature-sensitive coral species. However, our understanding of how coral populations expand into new areas and sustain themselves over time is constrained by the limited scope of modern observations. Here, we provide geological insights into coral range expansions by reconstructing the composition of a Late Holocene-aged subfossil coral death assemblage on the southeast Florida reef tract and comparing it to modern reefs throughout the region. Our findings show that the Late Holocene coral assemblages were dominated by now critically endangered Acropora species between ~3500 and 1800 years before present, mirroring classic zonation patterns characteristic of healthy pre-1970s Caribbean reefs. In contrast, the modern reefs off southeast Florida are becoming increasingly dominated by stress-tolerant species like Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea despite modest expansions of Acropora cervicornis over the past several decades. Our results suggest that ongoing anthropogenic stressors, not present during the Late Holocene, are likely limiting the ability of modern higher latitude reefs in Florida to function as long-term climate refugia.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Atmospheric river activity during the late Holocene exceeds modern range of variability in California

Atmospheric rivers are associated with some of the largest flood-producing precipitation events in western North America, particularly California. Insight into past extreme precipitation can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives on millennial timescales. Here we document atmospheric river activity near Leonard Lake, California, over 3,200 years, using a key metric of atmospheric river intensity, that is silicon/aluminum enriched layers that are highly correlated with modern records of integrated vapor transport. The late twentieth century had the highest median integrated vapor transport since the onset of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, with integrated vapor transport increasing during the Little Ice Age. The reconstruction suggests California has experienced pluvial episodes that exceeded any in the meteorologic instrumental era, with the largest episodes occurring two and three millennia ago. These results provide critical data to help avoid underestimation of potential risks and aid future planning scenarios.

California↗
USGS2024

Contemporary fires are less frequent but more severe in dry conifer forests of the southwestern United States

Wildfires in the southwestern United States are increasingly frequent and severe, but whether these trends exceed historical norms remains contested. Here we combine dendroecological records, satellite-derived burn severity, and field measured tree mortality to compare historical (1700-1880) and contemporary (1985-2020) fire regimes at tree-ring fire-scar sites in Arizona and New Mexico. We found that contemporary fire frequency, including recent, record fire years, is still <20% of historical levels. Since 1985, the fire return interval averages 58.8 years, compared to 11.4 years before 1880. Fire severity, however, has increased. At sites where trees historically survived many fires over centuries, 42% of recent fires resulted in high tree mortality. Suppressed wildfires tended to burn more severely than prescribed burns and wildfires managed for resource benefit. These findings suggest that expanded use of low-severity prescribed and managed fire would help restore forest resilience and historical fire regimes in dry conifer forests.

Arizona, New Mexico↗