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At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources
USGS2012

A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss) , a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

Washington↗
USGS2011

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

Washington↗
USGS2023

Climate change hotspots and implications for the global subsea telecommunications network

A global network of subsea telecommunications cables underpins our daily lives, enabling >95% of global digital data transfer, $trillions/day in financial trading, and providing critical communications links, particularly to remote, low-income countries. Despite their importance, subsea cables and their landing stations are vulnerable to damage by natural hazards, including storm surges, waves, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions , submarine landslides and ice scour. However, the likelihood or recurrence interval of many of these types of events will likely change under future projected climate change scenarios, compounded by sea-level rise; potentially increasing hazard severity, creating previously unanticipated hazards, or hazards may shift to new locations during the 20–30-year operational life of cable systems. To date, no study has assessed the wide-reaching impacts of future climate change on subsea cables and landing stations on a global scale. Here, for the first time we synthesize the current evidence base, based on published peer-reviewed datasets, to fill this crucial knowledge gap, specifically to assess how and where future climate change is likely to impact subsea cables and their shore-based infrastructure. We find that ocean conditions are highly likely to change on a global basis as a result of climate change, but the feedbacks and links between climate change, natural processes and human activities are often complicated, resulting in a high degree of geographic variability. We identify climate change ‘hotspots’ (regions and locations likely to experience the greatest impacts) but find that not all areas will be affected in the same manner, nor synchronously by the same processes. We conclude that cable routes should carefully consider locally-variable drivers of hazard frequency and magnitude. Consideration should be given both to instantaneous events (e.g. landslides, tropical cyclones) as well as longer-term, sustained impacts (e.g. seabed currents that circulate even in deep water). Multiple factors can combine to increase the risk posed to subsea cables, hence a holistic approach is essential to assess the compounded effects of both natural processes and human activities in the future.

Earth Science Reviews↗
USGS2015

Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds. The study uses output from general circulation models to drive hydrologic simulations of streamflow, groundwater base flow (hereafter referred to as base flow), and snowfall in four representative watersheds in New Hampshire during the 21st century, including the watersheds of the Ashuelot, Oyster, Pemigewasset, and Souhegan Rivers. Simulations show that on average, relative to current conditions, streamflow is likely to increase and base flow is likely to decrease, although this change is highly variable by geographic location and season. Streamflow variability will likely increase, with more high streamflows and more low streamflows. The largest increases in streamflow are in the winter, with small decreases in summer. Change in base flow varies across the State with the largest change in the northern Pemigewasset River watershed. Changes in snowfall are consistently decreasing for all watersheds on average, with the largest change also in the Pemigewasset. However, monthly snowfall totals during any given winter could be higher in the future than expected under current conditions. Increasing frequency of floods (the largest seven floods expected to occur in 20 years) could be more significant than the size of the floods, except in the northern high altitude watersheds. In other words, the projections indicate a pattern of multiple floods that might not breach the riverbanks, yet the increased frequency could put additional strain on the existing river banks, infrastructure, and nearby human settlements. There is also likely to be an increase in high flows during the winter and spring months, which could result in more uncertainty in planning for the design, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure, including roads and utilities. Similarly, it is expected that, on average, there will be less base flow available and a wider range of seasonal fluctuation in base flow than experienced historically. These issues could necessitate more attention to planning and management of the resource. Based on past experience, the most important effects of climate change could be less certain planning options and a greater need for planning that accounts for the effects of larger streamflows than are currently available. The effects of hydrologic change on human health and well-being could be most readily apparent with respect to changes in streamflow and the subsequent increase in the frequency of minor flooding and the frequency of summer and fall low streamflows. These changes could require the development of plans to adapt, protect, and upgrade infrastructure, such as bridges, culverts, roads, and other structures. The precipitation runoff modeling shows that rivers and watersheds in New Hampshire will likely change in response to climate change, and that this response varies with season and latitude. Although four representative areas were simulated in this study, additional models could be used to predict the response over the entire State.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2012

What are plants doing and when? Using plant phenology to facilitate sustainable natural resources management

Climate change models for the northern Rocky Mountains predict changes in temperature and water availability that in turn will alter vegetation. Changes include timing of plant life-history events, or phenology, such as green-up, flowering and senescence, and shifts in species composition. Moreover, climate changes may favor different species, such as nonnative, annual grasses over native species. Changes in vegetation could make forage for ungulates, sage-grouse, and livestock available earlier in the growing season, but shifts in species composition and phenology may also result in earlier senescence (die-off or dormancy) and reduced overall forage production.

Wyoming↗
USGS2014

Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

Park Science↗
USGS2007

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2015

Scale-appropriate adaptation strategies and actions in the Northeast and Midwest United States

Climate Change Adaptation is a growing field within conservation and natural resource management. Actions taken toward climate change adaptation account for climate impacts and ecological responses, both current and projected into the future. These actions attempt to accomplish a number of goals, including the conservation of wildlife and ecosystems by reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. Climate change adaptation strategies and approaches for natural resources can be thought of as part of a continuum of potential actions ranging from 1) options or goals to 2) strategies, 3) approaches, and 4) tactics. There are a range of decision support tools and processes to aid climate change adaptation. This document highlights several including the Adaptation Workbook, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments, Structured Decision Making, Adaptive Resource Management, and Scenario Planning. It will also provide case studies on the application of these tools across the Northeast and Midwest. Improved, better-integrated, and increasingly coordinated monitoring systems would be helpful to detect, track, and attribute species and habitat shifts to climate change over spatiotemporal scales. We highlight regional examples of projects and programs addressing these challenges. Illustrative case studies of climate change adaptation efforts are presented across landscape/ecoregion, state, and local scales. Appendix 4.1 provides a synthesis of over 900 general, species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and tactics from 9 regional studies being considered or implemented across the region. The study of climate change adaptation is a relatively new and rapidly growing field focused on preparing for and responding to the current and future impacts of climate change. The goal of this chapter is to highlight different approaches, processes, and tools currently being used across the region through illustrative case studies at varying scales. In addition, we provide a synthesis of numerous species and habitat-specific adaptation strategies and actions from existing assessment reports and management plans, which is intended to showcase a range of possibilities for natural resource management under future global change. This report does not prescribe one specific approach to taking action; instead, we outline a range of adaptation 5 tactics, which will require thoughtful consideration of the needs of the species, habitat, and location, the stakeholders and partners involved, the scale that a decision or policy is being implemented at, and the financial and personnel resources available to managers.

Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ke↗
USGS2025

Managing for tomorrow—A climate adaptation decision framework

Climate change presents new and compounding challenges to natural resource management. With changing climate patterns, managers are confronted with difficult decisions on how to minimize climate effects on habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations. To support climate adaptation decision making, we first conceptualized an approach that integrates the principles of the resist–accept–direct framework, climate scenario planning, and decision analysis into a general framework to support adaptation planning. This framework was implemented and refined by working with three National Wildlife Refuge System refuges within the Midwest Region. The objectives of this report are to describe the climate adaptation decision framework and provide guidance for how to apply the framework to support transparent, consistent, and decision-focused adaptation planning. We include a workbook to support the application of each step of the framework as well as lessons learned from our experiences developing the framework. The climate adaptation decision framework has wide applicability to aid adaptation planning within natural resource management and underscores the important role of engaging interest groups in climate adaptation decisions.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2012

Magnetic records of climate change

Sediments deposited on the sea floor, on lake bottoms, as well as on land as accumulations of windblown silt (loess) and as ancient soils (paleosols) formed in the loess possess many different properties that record past changes in climate. Geologically recoverable information on paleoclimate includes changes in global temperature as it may affect global ice volume and thus temperature of sea water, net precipitation, storm intensity (wind speed) and frequency, as well as wind direction. Such information further contributes to interpretations about changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. As such, the understanding of past climatic changes can provide baselines of natural climatic fluctuations as related to those that may be induced or influenced by human activities.

Reviews of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Evidence of recent climate change within the historic range of Rio Grande cutthroat trout: implications for management and future persistence

Evidence of anthropogenically influenced climate change has motivated natural resource managers to incorporate adaptive measures to minimize risks to sensitive and threatened species. Detecting trends in climate variables (i.e., air temperature and hydrology) can serve as a valuable management tool for protecting vulnerable species by increasing our understanding of localized conditions and trends. The Rio Grande cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis has suffered a severe decline in its historical distribution, with the majority of current populations persisting in isolated headwater streams. To evaluate recent climate change within the subspecies' historical range, we examined trends in average air temperatures, biologically important hydrological variables (timing of snowmelt and seasonal flows), and the April 1 snow water equivalent over the last 45 years (1963–2007). While rates of change in all three metrics were variable across sites, rangewide patterns were evident. Across the subspecies' historical range, average annual air temperatures increased (0.29°C per decade) and the timing of snowmelt shifted 10.6 d earlier in the year (2.3 d/decade). Flows increased during biologically important periods, including winter (January 1–March 31; 6.6% increase per decade), prespawning (April 1–May 14; 6.9% increase per decade), and spawning (May 15–June 15; 4.2% increase per decade) and decreased in summer (June 16–September 15; 1.9% decrease per decade). Evidence of decreasing April 1 snow water equivalent (5.3% per decade) was also observed. While the impacts of these changes at the population level are equivocal, it is likely that negative effects would influence the subspecies by altering its distribution, decreasing available habitat, and altering the timing of important life history components. Continued monitoring and proactive management will be required to increase the resiliency of remaining populations to ensure long-term persistence and protection in a changing climate.

Colorado;New Mexico↗
USGS2022

Natural infrastructure in dryland streams (NIDS) can establish regenerative wetland sinks that reverse desertification and strengthen climate resilience

In this article we describe the natural hydrogeomorphological and biogeochemical cycles of dryland fluvial ecosystems that make them unique, yet vulnerable to land use activities and climate change. We introduce Natural Infrastructure in Dryland Streams (NIDS), which are structures naturally or anthropogenically created from earth, wood, debris, or rock that can restore implicit function of these systems. This manuscript further discusses the capability of and functional similarities between beaver dams and anthropogenic NIDS, documented by decades of scientific study. In addition, we present the novel, evidence-based finding that NIDS can create wetlands in water-scarce riparian zones, with soil organic carbon stock as much as 200 to 1400 Mg C/ha in the top meter of soil. We identify the key restorative action of NIDS, which is to slow the drainage of water from the landscape such that more of it can infiltrate and be used to facilitate natural physical, chemical, and biological processes in fluvial environments. Specifically, we assert that the rapid drainage of water from such environments can be reversed through the restoration of natural infrastructure that once existed. We then explore how NIDS can be used to restore the natural biogeochemical feedback loops in these systems. We provide examples of how NIDS have been used to restore such feedback loops, the lessons learned from installation of NIDS in the dryland streams of the southwestern United States, how such efforts might be scaled up, and what the implications are for mitigating climate change effects. Our synthesis portrays how restoration using NIDS can support adaptation to and protection from climate-related disturbances and stressors such as drought, water shortages, flooding, heatwaves, dust storms, wildfire, biodiversity losses, and food insecurity.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2015

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

South Dakota↗
USGS2021

Preface to book: Wetland carbon and environmental management

The idea for this book, including its organization and contents, has its origin in the latest environmental and climate policy requirements in the United States, as well as science advances. In 2007, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), from which Section 712 required U.S. Federal agencies to provide a better understanding of carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes across the United States. As a result, largescale and coordinated efforts were launched to assess carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and greenhouse gas fluxes including CO2, CH4, and N2O from all major terrestrial and freshwater aquatic ecosystems, including forest, grassland/shrub, agricultural lands, wetlands, and rivers, streams, lakes, and impoundments. The EISA assessment produced major results (Selmants et al., 2017; Zhu, 2011; Zhu & McGuire, 2016; Zhu & Reed, 2012, 2014), but recognized that wetlands remained a significant source of uncertainty, especially for those wetlands that were being actively managed. The more recent Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which devoted two separate chapters to inland and coastal wetlands, respectively, noted that large knowledge gaps still remain, ranging from inadequate analysis of restored and managed wetlands, and consequences of management decisions, to future wetland responses to climate change (USGCRP, 2018). In recent literature, wetland management is suggested as a potential natural solution to mitigate climate change (Fargione et al., 2018, Kroeger et al., 2017) and help offset direct losses of wetlands from sea level rise, subsidence, and coastal erosion (Wang et al., 2017). The recognition that a synthesis of wetland carbon management was urgently needed was the genesis of Wetland Carbon and Environmental Management; discerning the relationships between wetland management and carbon flux (loss or gain) is an international goal.

Geophysical Monograph Series↗
USGS2020

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2010

Aligning USGS senior leadership structure with the USGS science strategy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is realigning its management and budget structure to further enhance the work of its science programs and their interdisciplinary focus areas related to the USGS Science Strategy as outlined in 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges-U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007-2017' (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). In 2007, the USGS developed this science strategy outlining major natural-science issues facing the Nation and focusing on areas where natural science can make a substantial contribution to the well being of the Nation and the world. These areas include global climate change, water resources, natural hazards, energy and minerals, ecosystems, and data integration.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2011

New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets

The mapping and measurement of glaciers and their changes are useful in predicting sea-level and regional water supply, studying hazards and climate change [Haeberli et al., 1998],and in the hydropower industry Existing inventories cover only about 67,000 of the world's estimated 160,000 glaciers and are based on data collected over 50 years or more [e.g.,Haeberli et al., 1998]. The data available have proven that small ice bodies are disappearing at an accelerating rate and that the Antarctic ice sheet and its fringing ice shelves are undergoing unexpected, rapid change. According to many glaciologists, much larger fluctuations in land ice—with vast implications for society—are possible in the coming decades and centuries due to natural and anthropogenic climate change [Oppenheimer, 1998].

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2011

Delivering climate science for the nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: The U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Changes to the Earth's climate-temperature, precipitation, and other important aspects of climate-pose significant challenges to our Nation's natural resources now and will continue to do so. Managers of land, water, and living resources need to understand the impacts of climate change-which will exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species-so they can design effective response strategies. In 2008 Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); this center was formed to address challenges resulting from climate change and to empower natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision-making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has invested over $20M in cutting-edge climate change research and is now leading the effort to establish eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs).

Fact Sheet↗