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USGS2011

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), blue‐winged teal ( Anas discors ), ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and pied‐billed grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, ↗

USGS2021

Embracing ensemble species distribution models to inform at-risk species status assessments

Conservation planning depends on reliable information regarding the geographic distribution of species. However, our knowledge of species' distributions is often incomplete, especially when species are cryptic, difficult to survey, or rare. The use of species distribution models has increased in recent years and proven a valuable tool to evaluate habitat suitability for species. However, practitioners have yet to fully adopt the potential of species distribution models to inform conservation efforts for information-limited species. Here, we describe a species distribution modeling approach for at-risk species that could better inform U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's species status assessments and help facilitate conservation decisions. We applied four modeling techniques (generalized additive, maximum entropy, generalized boosted, and weighted ensemble) to occurrence data for four at-risk species proposed for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act ( Papaipema eryngii, Macbridea caroliniana, Scutellaria ocmulgee, and Balduina atropurpurea ) in the Southeastern United States. The use of ensemble models reduced uncertainty caused by differences among modeling techniques, with a consequent improvement of predictive accuracy of fitted models. Incorporating an ensemble modeling approach into species status assessments and similar frameworks is likely to benefit survey efforts, inform recovery activities, and provide more robust status assessments for at-risk species. We emphasize that co-producing species distribution models in close collaboration with species experts has the potential to provide better calibration data and model refinements, which could ultimately improve reliance and use of model outputs.

Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Caroli↗

USGS2026

Conducting feasibility assessments of potential conservation reintroductions: A case study with the imperiled foothill yellow-legged frog, Rana boylii

Conservation translocations are an increasingly common and often necessary component of recovering species that have become extirpated from portions of their range. Understanding and ameliorating potential threats that reduce the likelihood of successful population establishment at recipient sites is a key component of successful translocation planning. We examined multiple potential threats, including pathogens, contaminants, and invasive species, as well as habitat suitability and food resources, to assess the feasibility of reintroducing threatened, stream-obligate foothill yellow-legged frogs, Rana boylii , to Pinnacles National Park. Foothill yellow-legged frogs were extirpated from this protected area more than half a century ago. Although invasive species, disease, contaminants, food resources, and water temperatures are unlikely to inhibit foothill yellow-legged frog population establishment, potential recipient streams at Pinnacles National Park had shorter hydroperiods and much higher canopy cover than reference streams with extant foothill yellow-legged frog populations. Although the exact cause of extirpation of foothill yellow-legged frogs from Pinnacles National Park is unknown, translocations of foothill yellow-legged frogs to the park are more likely to succeed if riparian canopy cover is reduced and stream hydroperiods increased to better match those at nearby populations. Thoroughly understanding the threats to and characteristics of potential recipient sites could improve the likelihood of success of translocation outcomes in natural areas.

California↗

USGS2021

Assessment of cereal grain waste densities to aid waterfowl conservation planning in the Klamath Basin

Postharvest waste seed from cereal grains is a major dietary component of waterfowl in the Klamath Basin in northeastern California and southeastern Oregon, a region that plays host to over a million waterfowl annually. Understanding food abundance is critical to local waterfowl management; therefore, we conducted a study in 2008 to investigate waste grain densities in barley, oat, and wheat fields. We used hierarchal mixed effect models to assess several factors that may affect waste grain densities postharvest. We also compared the effects of residue management practices to measure the effect of these treatments. To understand the scope of postharvest practices, we conducted a weekly road survey to document treatments applied to fields in our study area. We found that region best explained the variance of postharvest waste grain in barley fields, where the Tule Lake region had 89% greater densities than Lower Klamath. Neither harvester age nor baling affected waste grain in oats fields. In wheat fields, the model containing region and lodging ranked highest, where the Tule Lake region had 66% greater waste densities than Lower Klamath, and lodging increased waste grain by 70%. Burning did not reduce waste grain in barley or oat fields. Chisel-disking reduced waste grain by 94% in wheat fields compared with postharvest. Our field treatment survey found that 70% of barley fields were untreated while 18% were disked and 13% were burned and flooded. We estimated that 82% of oat fields were burned postharvest, while 18% were burned and flooded. In wheat, 61% of fields were left untreated, while 16% were disked, 8% were chisel-plowed, and 7% were flooded postharvest. Flooding and burning occurred primarily on National Wildlife Refuges, while disking, chisel-plowing, and postharvest irrigation occurred solely on private properties. Our results indicate that reducing tillage treatments would boost accessibility of cereal grain food resources to waterfowl in the Klamath Basin, and incentives to flood grain fields on private properties should be considered for the same purpose when and where possible.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2018

Decision making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans ( Bsal ). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander ( Salamandra salamandra ) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications . Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori .

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2015

Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1-min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species-specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy-based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.

Mississippi↗

USGS2023

Structured decision making to prioritize regional bird monitoring needs

Conservation planning for large ecosystems has multiple benefits but is often challenging to implement because of the multiple jurisdictions, species, and habitats involved. In addition, decision making at large spatial scales can be hampered because many approaches do not explicitly incorporate potentially competing values and concerns of stakeholders. After the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, establishing baselines was challenging because of (1) variation in study designs, (2) inconsistent use of explicit objectives and hypotheses, (3) inconsistent use of standardized monitoring protocols, and (4) variation in spatial and temporal scope associated with avian monitoring projects before the spill. Herein, we show how the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network members used structured decision making to identify bird monitoring priorities. We used multiple tools and techniques to clearly define the problem and stakeholder objectives and to identify bird monitoring priorities at the scale of the entire northern Gulf of Mexico region. Although our example is specific to the northern Gulf of Mexico, this approach provides an example of how stakeholder values can be incorporated into the coordination process of broad-scale monitoring programs to address management, restoration, and scientific questions in other ecosystems and for other taxa.

INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics↗

USGS2021

Using growth rates to estimate the minimum age and size at sexual maturity in a captive population of the critically endangered Central American river turtle Dermatemys mawii

The Central American river turtle Dermatemys mawii is a critically endangered species that has incurred substantial losses over the last several decades due to overhunting. This species is now being considered for head-starting programs (i.e. captive breeding of turtles for wild release). However, relatively little is known about their life history characteristics, especially with respect to growth and sexual maturation. A robust knowledge of D. mawii life history traits is important in developing conservation management plans. Our research is the first known study to maintain hatchlings, juveniles, and adults in captivity with regular morphometric data collection. We quantified growth rates (cm yr-1) and calculated growth parameters (e.g. growth coefficients) to estimate body size and age at onset of sexual maturity in a group of wild-caught but captive-held and captive-bred D. mawii in Belize. Sizes at the onset of sexual maturity were inferred by segmented linear regressions that identified changes in growth rate by body size. Asymptotic sizes and growth coefficients were calculated using the Fabens method and the Wang method. Parameters from these models were then applied to a modified von Bertalanffy growth equation to estimate age at the onset of sexual maturity. Male and female D. mawii begin sexual maturation at ca. 38.0 cm and 40.0 cm straight-line carapace length, respectively. We estimated ages associated with these sizes at 13.5-16.9 yrs (males) and 13.6-17.3 yrs (females). No previous literature on growth rates or age at maturation for wild or captive D. mawii has been reported, so our results serve as a starting point in conservation management. Given the life history trait of delayed sexual maturity (>10 years), D. mawii may be more sensitive to losses of the adult population. Therefore, the importance of captive breeding and head-starting programs may be concomitant with protecting wild, adult populations.

Toledo↗

USGS2023

Bobcat occupancy, tree islands, and invasive Burmese pythons in an Everglades conservation area

Bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) are terrestrial mammals that also inhabit tree islands (i.e., topographically elevated patches of forested land) embedded in the subtropical Everglades wetlands, which serve as a dry refuge habitat during the wet season in this region of Florida, USA. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan seeks to restore Everglades water flow to pre-drainage conditions, but little is known about how water levels or other landscape-level factors may influence mammalian occurrence, such as bobcats, on the tree islands in this ecosystem. We used game camera records and occupancy modeling to test for effects of static habitat variables and dynamic hydrologic variables. We hypothesized that deep water levels would limit the accessibility of tree islands to bobcats; therefore, we predicted that bobcat occupancy would decline with higher water levels. We also tested for the effect of an expanding invasive snake (i.e., Burmese python [ Python molarus bivittatus ]) using output from a model constructed to predict density and spread of Burmese pythons across southern Florida. We hypothesized that increases in Burmese pythons on the landscape would influence the food resources of bobcats, resulting in reduced bobcat occupancy at higher predicted densities of pythons. We built detection histories using 1,855 bobcat images from game cameras set on 87 tree islands in an Everglades conservation area from 2005–2019. Bobcat occupancy was significantly diminished when predicted Burmese python densities exceeded approximately 3 Burmese pythons/km 2 . Bobcat occupancy probability also increased with tree-island density around the focal tree island. Although water depth and hydroperiod surrounding tree islands appeared in our top 3 candidate models, the hydrologic variables had weak effects on bobcat occupancy. Our results suggest that while hydrologic dynamics may play a role, the invasive Burmese python has stronger influences on bobcat occupancy of tree islands in this Everglades conservation area.

Florida↗

USGS2025

Assessing decadal-scale coastal change likelihood to define the accuracy and application of scientific information

Defining the accuracy and uncertainties of scientific data products is critical to the usability and trustworthiness of scientific information for environmental management and conservation purposes, such as coastal resource prioritization, design, adaptation, and mitigation. The U.S. Geological Survey has a new decadal-scale coastal change assessment product that synthesizes nearly two dozen coastal datasets. A supervised machine-learning framework is used to combine existing datasets that describe the landscape and the hazards that affect it to determine the coastal change likelihood (CCL) in the coming decade at a resolution of 10 m per pixel for the NE United States from Maine to Virginia. Here, results from a series of statistical tests conducted on source data, the supervised classification, and the CCL outcomes as compared with historical land-cover change are presented. The overall accuracy of the aggregated land-cover dataset that serves as the foundation to which other source datasets are appended is 94%. The supervised learning classification that determines the final CCL output has an overall accuracy of 92%. The CCL predictions of high expected coastal change were consistent with 95% of the coastal and low-elevation landscape change in the last 20 years, as recorded by the Coastal Change Analysis Program land-cover change atlas. Results suggest that CCL provides accurate estimates of coastal landscape change in the next decade that are consistent with recent observed change. Additionally, best practices for applying CCL for planning purposes are outlined, and citing limitations, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for improved accuracy and further investigation are considered.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2003

Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to estimate population change for bird conservation regions

Conservation planning requires information at a variety of geographic scales, and it is often unclear whether surveys designed for other purposes will provide appropriate information for management at various scales. We evaluated the use of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to meet information needs for conservation planning in Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs). The BBS originally was developed to provide regional estimates for states, provinces, physiographic regions, and larger areas. Many analyses have used physiographic regions within states/provinces as strata. We evaluated potential consequences of using BCRs instead of the BBS physiographic regions, testing for spatial differences in sample intensity within states and provinces. We reclassified the BBS survey routes to BCRs and conducted route regression trend (interval-specific population change) analyses for a variety of regions and time intervals. Our results were similar to those based on traditional BBS regions and suggest minimal consequences of the reclassification for the BBS sample. We summarized population change within BCRs and assessed the efficiency of the BBS in estimating population change for 421 species surveyed. As would be expected from an omnibus survey, many species appeared to be poorly monitored by the BBS, with 42% of species encountered at <1 bird per route from the survey, and 28% of trend estimates too imprecise to detect a 3% per year change over 35 years. Our results indicated that the quality of the survey for estimation of population change varied among BCRs. Population trends of species were heterogeneous over space and time, varying among BCRs for 76% of species and over time for 39% of species. Regional heterogeneity also existed in trends of species groups from the BBS. While 49% of all species in the survey had increasing populations, grassland breeding birds showed consistent declines, with only 18% of species having positive trend estimates. Bird Conservation Regions appear to provide reasonable strata for summary of BBS data.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2010

Spatial models of Northern Bobwhite populations for conservation planning

Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Spatial and temporal patterns in golden eagle diets in the western United States, with implications for conservation planning

Detailed information on diets and predatory ecology of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is essential to prioritize prey species management and to develop landscape-specific conservation strategies, including mitigation of the effects of energy development across the western United States. We compiled published and unpublished data on Golden Eagle diets to (1) summarize available information on Golden Eagle diets in the western U.S., (2) compare diets among biogeographic provinces, and (3) discuss implications for conservation planning and future research. We analyzed 35 studies conducted during the breeding season at 45 locations from 1940–2015. Golden Eagle diet differed among western ecosystems. Lower dietary breadth was associated with desert and shrub-steppe ecosystems and higher breadth with mountain ranges and the Columbia Plateau. Correlations suggest that percentage of leporids in the diet is the factor driving overall diversity of prey and percentage of other prey groups in the diet of Golden Eagles. Leporids were the primary prey of breeding Golden Eagles in 78% of study areas, with sciurids reported as primary prey in 18% of study areas. During the nonbreeding season, Golden Eagles were most frequently recorded feeding on leporids and carrion. Golden Eagles can be described as both generalist and opportunistic predators; they can feed on a wide range of prey species but most frequently feed on abundant medium-sized prey species in a given habitat. Spatial variations in Golden Eagle diet likely reflect regional differences in prey community, whereas temporal trends likely reflect responses to long-term change in prey populations. Evidence suggests dietary shifts from traditional (leporid) prey can have adverse effects on Golden Eagle reproductive rates. Land management practices that support or restore shrub-steppe ecosystem diversity should benefit Golden Eagles. More information is needed on nonbreeding-season diet to determine what food resources, such as carrion, are important for overwinter survival.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

USGS2010

Possible generational effects of habitat degradation on alligator reproduction

Population decline of the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) was observed in Lake Apopka in central Florida, USA, in the early 1980s. This decline was thought to result from adult mortality and nest failure caused by anthropogenic increases in sediment loads, nutrients, and contaminants. Reproductive impairment also was reported. Extensive restoration of marshes associated with Lake Apopka has been conducted, as well as some limited restoration measures on the lake. Monitoring by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FFWCC) has indicated that the adult alligator population began increasing in the early 1990s. We expected that the previously reported high proportion of complete nest failure (??0) during the 1980s may have decreased. We collected clutches from alligator nests in Lake Apopka from 1983 to 2003 and from 5 reference areas from 1988 to 1991, and we artificially incubated them. We used a Bayesian framework with Gibbs sampler of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to analyze ??0. Estimated ??0was consistently higher in Lake Apopka compared with reference areas, and the difference in ??0 ranged from 0.19 to 0.56. We conducted change point analysis to identify and test the significance of the change point in ??0in Lake Apopka between 1983 and 2003, indicating the point of reproductive recovery. The estimated Bayes factor strongly supported the single change point hypothesis against the no change point hypothesis. The major downward shift in ??0 probably occurred in the mid-1990s, approximately a generation after the major population decline in the 1980s. Furthermore, estimated ??0 values after the change point (0.21) were comparable with those of reference areas (0.07-0.31). These results combined with the monitoring by FFWCC seem to suggest that anthropogenic habitat degradation caused reproductive impairment of adult females and decreases in ??0 occurred with the sexual maturity of a new generation of breeding females. Long-term monitoring is essential to understand population changes due to habitat restoration. Such information can be used as an input in planning and evaluating restoration activities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2008

Subspecific affinities and conservation genetics of western big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii pallescens) at the edge of their distributional range

Subspecific affinities, determination of population boundaries, and levels of population connectedness are of critical importance for the development of management and conservation planning. We used variation at a mitochondrial locus and 5 biparentally inherited nuclear loci to determine partitioning of genetic variation of western big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii) within and among caves occurring in a fragmented landscape of gypsum deposits in western Oklahoma. To accomplish this objective, we first performed a phylogenetic analysis based on the mitochondrial locus of western big-eared bats from a large portion of their range. This analysis indicated that western big-eared bats at the periphery of the distribution in western Oklahoma share phylogenetic affinities with the most geographically restricted subspecies, C. t. pallescens. Because C. townsendii is rare in Oklahoma and is listed as a species of special concern, this finding provides additional support for the continued protection of this species in Oklahoma. Within western Oklahoma, we failed to detect significant differentiation among any caves for the biparentally inherited microsatellite data. However, the mitochondrial locus exhibited significant levels of genetic differentiation among caves, with the highest level of differentiation occurring between caves within the disjunct distributions of gypsum (??ST = 38.76%). Although a significant amount of genetic differentiation was detected between populations on the 2 disjunct distributions of gypsum deposits, Analysis with the program Migrate suggested high levels of asymmetric gene flow among some populations. Our results provide a greater understanding of the population dynamics of western big-eared bats on the periphery of their range and highlight the importance of continued monitoring and study of this taxon. ?? 2008 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2010

Structured decision-making and rapid prototyping to plan a management response to an invasive species

We developed components of a decision structure that could be used in an adaptive management framework for responding to invasion of hemlock woolly adelgid Adeleges tsugae on the Cumberland Plateau of northern Tennessee. Hemlock woolly adelgid, an invasive forest pest, was first detected in this area in 2007. We used a structured decision-making process to identify and refine the management problem, objectives, and alternative management actions, and to assess consequences and tradeoffs among selected management alternatives. We identified four fundamental objectives: 1) conserve the aquatic and terrestrial riparian conservation targets, 2) protect and preserve hemlock, 3) develop and maintain adequate budget, and 4) address public concerns. We designed two prototype responses using an iterative process. By rapidly prototyping a first solution, insights were gained and shortcomings were identified, and some of these shortcomings were incorporated and corrected in the second prototype. We found that objectives were best met when management focused on early treatment of lightly to moderately infested but relatively healthy hemlock stands with biological control agent predator beetles and insect-killing fungi. Also, depending on the cost constraint, early treatment should be coupled with silvicultural management of moderately to severely infested and declining hemlock stands to accelerate conversion to nonhemlock mature forest cover. The two most valuable contributions of the structured decision-making process were 1) clarification and expansion of our objectives, and 2) application of tools to assess tradeoffs and predict consequences of alternative actions. Predicting consequences allowed us to evaluate the influence of uncertainty on the decision. For example, we found that the expected number of mature forest stands over 30 y would be increased by 4% by resolving the uncertainty regarding predator beetle effectiveness. The adaptive management framework requires further development including identifying and evaluating uncertainty, formalizing other competing predictive models, designing a monitoring program to update the predictive models, developing a process for re-evaluating the predictive models and incorporating new management technologies, and generating support for planning and implementation.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Public access for pheasant hunters: Understanding an emerging need

Ring-necked pheasant ( Phasianus colchicus ; i.e., pheasant) hunting participation is declining across North America, reflecting a larger downward trend in American hunting participation and threatening benefits to grassland conservation and rural economies. To stabilize and expand the pheasant hunting population, we must first identify factors that influence pheasant hunter participation. We used an extensive in-person hunter survey to test the hypothesis that hunter demographics interact with social-ecological traits of hunting locations to affect hunter decisions, outcomes, and perceptions. We built a series of Bayesian mixed effects models to parse variation in demographics, perceptions, and hunt outcomes of pheasant hunters interviewed at public access hunting sites across 3 regions in Nebraska, USA, that varied in pheasant abundance and proximity to urban population centers. Among pheasant hunters in Nebraska, access to private lands was negatively related to the human population density of a pheasant hunter's home ZIP code and the distance a hunter had traveled to reach a hunting location. Pheasant hunters interviewed closer to metropolitan areas tended to be more urban and travel shorter distances, and their parties were more likely to include youth but less likely to include dogs. Hunter satisfaction was positively associated with seeing and harvesting pheasants and hunting with youth. Whereas youth participation and the number of pheasants seen varied by study region, hunter satisfaction did not differ across regions, suggesting that hunters may calibrate their expectations and build their parties based on where they plan to hunt. The variation in hunter demographics across hunting locations and disconnects between social and ecological correlates of hunter satisfaction suggests that diverse pheasant hunting constituencies will be best served by diverse pheasant hunting opportunities.

Nebraska↗

USGS2014

Circulating fat-soluble vitamin concentrations and nutrient composition of aquatic prey eaten by American oystercatchers ( Haematopus palliatus ) in the southeastern United States

The American oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus palliatus ) is currently listed as a species of high concern by the United States Shorebird Conservation Plan. Because nutritional status directly impacts overall health and reproduction of individuals and populations, adequate management of a wildlife population requires intimate knowledge of a species' diet and nutrient requirements. Fat-soluble vitamin concentrations in blood plasma obtained from American oystercatchers and proximate, vitamin, and mineral composition of various oystercatcher prey species were determined as baseline data to assess nutritional status and nutrient supply. Bird and prey species samples were collected from the Cape Romain region, South Carolina, USA, and the Altamaha River delta islands, Georgia, USA, where breeding populations appear relatively stable in recent years. Vitamin A levels in blood samples were higher than ranges reported as normal for domestic avian species, and vitamin D concentrations were lower than anticipated based on values observed in poultry. Vitamin E levels were within ranges previously reported for avian groups with broadly similar feeding niches such as herons, gulls, and terns (eg, aquatic/estuarine/marine). Prey species (oysters, mussels, clams, blood arks [ Anadara ovalis ], whelks [ Busycon carica ], false angel wings [ Petricola pholadiformis ]) were similar in water content to vertebrate prey, moderate to high in protein, and moderate to low in crude fat. Ash and macronutrient concentrations in prey species were high compared with requirements of carnivores or avian species. Prey items analyzed appear to meet nutritional requirements for oystercatchers, as estimated by extrapolation from domestic carnivores and poultry species; excesses, imbalances, and toxicities—particularly of minerals and fat-soluble vitamins—may warrant further investigation.

Georgia, South Carolina↗