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Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Volcanology curricula development aided by online educational resource

Volcanic activity is an excellent hook for engaging college and university students in geoscience classes. An increasing number of Internet-accessible real-time and near–real time volcano monitoring data are now available and constitute an important resource for geoscience education; however, relatively few data sets are comprehensive, and many lack background information to aid in interpretation. In response to the need for organized, accessible, and well-documented volcano education resources, the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), in collaboration with NASA and the University of Hawai`i at Manoa, established the Volcanoes Exploration Project: Pu`u `Ō`ō (VEPP). The VEPP Web site (http://vepp.wr.usgs.gov) is an educational resource that provides access, in near real time, to geodetic, seismic, and geologic data from the active Pu`u `Ō`ō eruptive vent on Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, along with background and context information. A strength of the VEPP site is the common theme of the Pu`u `Ō`ō eruption, which allows the site to be revisited multiple times to demonstrate different principles and integrate many aspects of volcanology.

Hawai'i

A whole ecosystem approach to studying climate change in interior Alaska

Yukon River Basin Principal Investigators Workshop; Portland, Oregon, 18-20 January 2011; High latitudes are known to be particularly susceptible to climate warming, leading to an emphasis of field and modeling research on arctic regions. Subarctic and boreal regions such as the Yukon River Basin (YRB) of interior Alaska and western Canada are less well studied, although they encompass large areas that are vulnerable to changes in forest composition, permafrost distribution, and hydrology. There is an urgent need to understand the resiliency and vulnerability of these complex ecosystems as well as their feedbacks to the global climate system. Consequently, U.S. Geological Survey scientists, with other federal agency, university, and private industry partners, is focusing subarctic interdisciplinary studies on the Beaver Creek Wild and Scenic River watershed (http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/content/ak/en/prog/nlcs/beavercrk_nwsr.html) and Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge (http://yukonflats.fws.gov/) in the YRB, south and west of Fort Yukon, Alaska. These areas are national treasures of wetlands, lakes, and uplands that support large populations of wildlife and waterfowl and are home to vibrant native Alaskan communities that depend on the area for a subsistence lifestyle.

Alaska

Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide

Which emits more carbon dioxide (CO 2 ): Earth's volcanoes or human activities? Research findings indicate unequivocally that the answer to this frequently asked question is human activities. However, most people, including some Earth scientists working in fields outside volcanology, are surprised by this answer. The climate change debate has revived and reinforced the belief, widespread among climate skeptics, that volcanoes emit more CO 2 than human activities [ Gerlach , 2010; Plimer , 2009]. In fact, present-day volcanoes emit relatively modest amounts of CO 2 , about as much annually as states like Florida, Michigan, and Ohio.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Dust: Small-scale processes with global consequences

Desert dust, both modern and ancient, is a critical component of the Earth system. Atmospheric dust has important effects on climate by changing the atmospheric radiation budget, while deposited dust influences biogeochemical cycles in the oceans and on land. Dust deposited on snow and ice decreases its albedo, allowing more light to be trapped at the surface, thus increasing the rate of melt and influencing energy budgets and river discharge. In the human realm, dust contributes to the transport of allergens and pathogens and when inhaled can cause or aggravate respiratory diseases. Dust storms also represent a significant hazard to road and air travel. Because it affects so many Earth processes, dust is studied from a variety of perspectives and at multiple scales, with various disciplines examining emissions for different purposes using disparate strategies. Thus, the range of objectives in studying dust, as well as experimental approaches and results, has not yet been systematically integrated. Key research questions surrounding the production and sources of dust could benefit from improved collaboration among different research communities. These questions involve the origins of dust, factors that influence dust production and emission, and methods through which dust can be monitored.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

The high life: Transport of microbes in the atmosphere

Microbes (bacteria, fungi, algae, and viruses) are the most successful types of life on Earth because of their ability to adapt to new environments, reproduce quickly, and disperse globally. Dispersal occurs through a number of vectors, such as migrating animals or the hydrological cycle, but transport by wind may be the most common way microbes spread. General awareness of airborne microbes predates the science of microbiology. People took advantage of wild airborne yeasts to cultivate lighter, more desirable bread as far back as ancient Egypt by simply leaving a mixture of grain and liquids near an open window. In 1862, Louis Pasteur's quest to disprove spontaneous generation resulted in the discovery that microbes were actually single-celled, living creatures, prevalent in the environment and easily killed with heat (pasteurization). His rudimentary experiments determined that any nutrient medium left open to the air would eventually teem with microbial life because of free-floating, colonizing cells. The same can happen in a kitchen: Opportunistic fungal and bacterial cells cause food items exposed to the air to eventually spoil.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Estimating groundwater recharge

Groundwater recharge is the entry of fresh water into the saturated portion of the subsurface part of the hydrologic cycle, the modifier “saturated” indicating that the pressure of the pore water is greater than atmospheric. Briefly stated, recharge is downward flux across the water table. The term “groundwater recharge” can refer either to the multiple interacting processes generating and controlling the flux or to the flux R itself. When referring to flux, R can represent either (1) a value integrated over large areas and long periods of time or (2) a point value, or instantaneous flux density, that varies erratically as well as continuously in time and space. Knowing how R is distributed through space and time is required for understanding the dynamics of groundwater flow and transport in any watershed, aquifer, or selected domain of interest and for understanding heads, flow paths, and discharges to streams, wetlands, and other surface water bodies. Clearly among the most important of hydrologic fluxes, R is also one of the most difficult to measure. Advancements in hydrologic science have proceeded surprisingly in lockstep with advances in determining R .

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011 Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Was pre–twentieth century sea level stable?

Sea level rise (SLR) ranks high on the list of climate change issues because the expected acceleration from the current rate (about 3.1 millimeters per year) poses threats to coastal regions. Tide gauge, salt marsh, and archaeological records, and modeling of glacioisostatic adjustment (GIA) have led to the widely accepted idea that late Holocene (the past ∼2000 years) sea level was stable prior to acceleration beginning around 1850–1900 C.E. For instance, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, before the last century, sea level had “stabilized” over the past 2000 years, rising at a mean rate of 0–0.2 millimeter per year [ Bindoff et al. , 2007]. Others maintain that sea level was “nearly stable” over the past few thousand years [ Nicholls and Cazenave , 2010], pre–twentieth century rates were “close to zero” [ Church et al. , 2008], or “stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950” and “stable, or slightly falling” from 1350 until the nineteenth century [ Kemp et al. , 2011].

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Workshop; Reston, Virginia, 2–4 August 2011 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project and Powell Center, is an integral part of a third iteration of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). PlioMIP's aim is to systematically compare structurally different climate models. This is done in the context of the mid-Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago), a geological interval when the global annual mean temperature was similar to predictions for the next century.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Looking skyward to study ecosystem carbon dynamics

Between May and October 2011 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, conducted a field campaign at the ARM Southern Great Plains site in north central Oklahoma to evaluate a new instrument for quantitative image-based monitoring of sky conditions and solar radiation. The High Dynamic Range All-Sky Imaging System (HDR-ASIS) was developed by USGS to support studies of cloud- and aerosol-induced variability in the geometric properties of solar radiation (the sky radiance distribution) and its effects on photosynthesis and uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by terrestrial ecosystems. Under a clean, cloudless atmosphere when the Sun is above the horizon, most of the solar radiation reaching an area of the Earth's surface is concentrated in a beam coming directly from the Sun; a relatively small proportion arrives as diffuse radiation from the rest of the sky. Clouds and atmospheric aerosols cause increased scattering of the beam radiation, which increases the proportion of diffuse radiation at the surface.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Tsunami hazards to U.S. coasts from giant earthquakes in Alaska

In the aftermath of Japan's devastating 11 March 2011M w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, scientists are considering whether and how a similar tsunami could be generated along the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ). A tsunami triggered by an earthquake along the AASZ would cross the Pacific Ocean and cause extensive damage along highly populated U.S. coasts, with ports being particularly vulnerable. For example, a tsunami in 1946 generated by a M w 8.6 earthquake near Unimak Pass, Alaska (Figure 1a), caused significant damage along the U.S. West Coast, took 150 lives in Hawaii, and inundated shorelines of South Pacific islands and Antarctica [ Fryer et al. , 2004; Lopez and Okal , 2006]. The 1946 tsunami occurred before modern broadband seismometers were in place, and the mechanisms that created it remain poorly understood.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Developing a national stream morphology data exchange: needs, challenges, and opportunities

Stream morphology data, primarily consisting of channel and foodplain geometry and bed material size measurements, historically have had a wide range of applications and uses including culvert/ bridge design, rainfall- runoff modeling, food inundation mapping (e.g., U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency food insurance studies), climate change studies, channel stability/sediment source investigations, navigation studies, habitat assessments, and landscape change research. The need for stream morphology data in the United States, and thus the quantity of data collected, has grown substantially over the past 2 decades because of the expanded interests of resource management agencies in watershed management and restoration. The quantity of stream morphology data collected has also increased because of state-of-the-art technologies capable of rapidly collecting high-resolution data over large areas with heretofore unprecedented precision. Despite increasing needs for and the expanding quantity of stream morphology data, neither common reporting standards nor a central data archive exist for storing and serving these often large and spatially complex data sets. We are proposing an open- access data exchange for archiving and disseminating stream morphology data.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

New insights into the nation's carbon storage potential

Carbon sequestration is a method of securing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to prevent its release into the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming as a greenhouse gas. Geologic storage of CO 2 in porous and permeable rocks involves injecting high-pressure CO 2 into a subsurface rock unit that has available pore space. Biologic carbon sequestration refers to both natural and anthropogenic processes by which CO 2 is removed from the atmosphere and stored as carbon in vegetation, soils, and sediments.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Seismic refraction analysis: the path forward

Seismic Refraction Methods: Unleashing the Potential and Understanding the Limitations; Tucson, Arizona, 29 March 2012 A workshop focused on seismic refraction methods took place on 29 May 2012, associated with the 2012 Symposium on the Application of Geophysics to Engineering and Environmental Problems. This workshop was convened to assess the current state of the science and discuss paths forward, with a primary focus on near-surface problems but with an eye on all applications. The agenda included talks on these topics from a number of experts interspersed with discussion and a dedicated discussion period to finish the day. Discussion proved lively at times, and workshop participants delved into many topics central to seismic refraction work.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

The 2011 Virginia earthquake: what are scientists learning?

Nearly 1 year ago, on 23 August, tens of millions of people in the eastern United States and southeastern Canada were startled in the middle of their workday (1:51 P.M. local time) by the sudden onset of moderate to strong ground shaking from a rare magnitude (M) 5.8 earthquake in central Virginia. Treating the shaking as if it were a fire drill, millions of workers in Washington, D. C., New York City, and other eastern cities hurriedly exited their buildings, exposing themselves to potentially greater danger from falling bricks and glass; “drop, cover, and hold” would have been a better response. Fortunately, the strong shaking stopped after about 5 seconds and did not cause widespread severe damage or serious injuries.

Virginia

New AGU scientific integrity and professional ethics policy available for review

The AGU Task Force on Scientific Ethics welcomes your review and comments on AGU's new Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics Policy. The policy has at its heart a code of conduct adopted from the internationally accepted "Singapore Statement," originally created by the Second World Conference on Research Integrity (http://www.singaporestatement.org/), held in 2010. The new policy also encompasses professional and publishing ethics, providing a single source of guidance to AGU members, officers, authors, and editors

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union