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At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources

Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States

A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Synthesis of studies in the fall low-salinity zone of the San Francisco Estuary, September-December 2011

In fall 2011, a large-scale investigation (fall low-salinity habitat investigation) was implemented by the Bureau of Reclamation in cooperation with the Interagency Ecological Program to explore hypotheses about the ecological role of low-salinity habitat in the San Francisco Estuary—specifically, hypotheses about the importance of fall low-salinity habitat to the biology of delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus , a species endemic to the San Francisco Estuary and listed as threatened or endangered under federal and state endangered species legislation. The Interagency Ecological Program is a consortium of 10 agencies that work together to develop a better understanding of the ecology of the Estuary and the effects of the State Water Project and Federal Central Valley Project operations on the physical, chemical, and biological conditions of the San Francisco Estuary. The fall low-salinity habitat investigation constitutes one of the actions stipulated in the Reasonable and Prudent Alternative issued with the 2008 Biological Opinion of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which called for adaptive management of fall Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta outflow following “wet” and “above normal” water years to alleviate jeopardy to delta smelt and adverse modification of delta smelt critical habitat. The basic hypothesis of the adaptive management of fall low-salinity habitat is that greater outflows move the low-salinity zone (salinity 1–6), an important component of delta smelt habitat, westward and that moving the low-salinity zone westward of its position in the fall of recent years will benefit delta smelt, although the specific mechanisms providing such benefit are uncertain. An adaptive management plan was prepared to guide implementation of the adaptive management of fall low-salinity habitat and to reduce uncertainty. This report has three major objectives: • To provide a summary of the results from the first year of coordinated fall low-salinity habitat studies and monitoring. • To provide a synthesis of the results of the fall low-salinity habitat studies and other ongoing research and monitoring, to determine if the available information supports the hypotheses behind the adaptive management of fall low-salinity habitat as set forth in the adaptive management plan. • To begin to put the results from the fall low-salinity habitat studies into context within the larger body of knowledge regarding the San Francisco Estuary and, in particular, the upper San Francisco Estuary, including the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, Suisun Bay, and associated embayments. The basic approach of this report is to evaluate predictions derived from the hypotheses included in the conceptual model developed within the adaptive management plan. All available data from studies and monitoring conducted in fall 2011 and similar data from fall 2006, which was the most recent wet year preceding 2011, were considered. Data from 2005 and 2010 were also considered, to include the conditions antecedent to those years. Many of the predictions either could not be evaluated with the data available, or the needed data were not collected. Most of the predictions that could be addressed involved either the abiotic habitat components (that is, the physical environment) or delta smelt responses. In general, the fall low-salinity habitat investigation has been largely inconclusive as of the writing of this report. This is not to be unexpected in the first year of what is intended to be a multi-year adaptive-management effort. This report can be viewed as the first chapter of a “living document” that is to be continually updated as part of the adaptive management cycle. The results of this report, especially predictions with insufficient data for evaluation, indicate a number of science-based approaches to improve the fall low-salinity habitat investigations: • Develop a method of measuring “hydrodynamic complexity.” This concept is central to a number of the predictions that could not be evaluated. • Determine if wind speed warrants a stand-alone prediction. The wind-speed prediction is directly related to the turbidity predictions, and wind is only one of several factors important for determining turbidity. • Determine the correct spatial and temporal scale or scales necessary for monitoring and for studies to address the predicted abiotic and biotic responses. Many of the assessments in this report were based on monthly sampling of dynamic habitat components, such as phytoplankton and zooplankton populations, that can change on daily scales. • Address the nutrient predictions as part of developing a phytoplankton production model that includes nutrient cycling and other important processes, if feasible. At a minimum develop a mechanistic conceptual model to support more processed-based interpretations of data or design of new studies, rather than making simple predictions of increase or decrease. • Determine if studies of predation rates are feasible in areas where there are delta smelt.

California↗

Estimates of flow duration, mean flow, and peak-discharge frequency values for Kansas stream locations

Streamflow statistics of flow duration and peak-discharge frequency were estimated for 4,771 individual locations on streams listed on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. These statistics included the flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent, as well as the mean flow value. Peak-discharge frequency values were estimated for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent and the mean flow for uncontrolled flow stream locations. The contributing-drainage areas of 149 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kansas and parts of surrounding States that had flow uncontrolled by Federal reservoirs and used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. Logarithmic transformations of climatic and basin data were performed to yield the best linear relation for developing equations to compute flow durations and mean flow. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were contributing-drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. The analyses yielded a model standard error of prediction range of 0.43 logarithmic units for the 90-percent duration analysis to 0.15 logarithmic units for the 10-percent duration analysis. The model standard error of prediction was 0.14 logarithmic units for the mean flow. Regression equations used to estimate peak-discharge frequency values were obtained from a previous report, and estimates for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were determined for this report. The regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute flow durations, mean flow, and estimates of peak-discharge frequency for locations along uncontrolled flow streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Flow durations, mean flow, and peak-discharge frequency values determined at available gaging stations were used to interpolate the regression-estimated flows for the stream locations where available. Streamflow statistics for locations that had uncontrolled flow were interpolated using data from gaging stations weighted according to the drainage area and the bias between the regression-estimated and gaged flow information. On controlled reaches of Kansas streams, the streamflow statistics were interpolated between gaging stations using only gaged data weighted by drainage area.

Kansas↗

Atlas of climatic controls of wildfire in the western United States

Wildfire behavior depends on several factors including ecologic characteristics, near-term and antecedent climatic conditions,fuel availability and moisture level, weather, and sources of ignition (lightning or human). The variability and interplay of these factors over many spatial and temporal scales present an ongoing challenge to our ability to forecast a given wildfire season. Here we focus on one aspect of wildfire in the western US through a retrospective analysis of wildfire (starts and area burned) and climate over monthly time scales. We consider prefire conditions up to a year preceding fire outbreaks. For our analysis, we used daily and monthly wildfire records and a combination of observed and model-simulated atmospheric and surface climate data. The focus of this report is on monthly wildfire and climate for the period 1980-2000. Although a longer fire record is desirable, the 21-year record is the longest currently available and it is sufficient for the purpose of a first-order regional analysis. We present the main results in the form of a wildfire-climate atlas for 8 subregions of the West that can be used by resource managers to assess current wildfire conditions relative to high, normal, and low fire years in the historical record. Our results clearly demonstrate the link between wildfire conditions and a small set of climatic variables, and our methodology is a framework for providing near-real-time assessments of current wildfire conditions in the West.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Borehole geophysical investigation of a formerly used defense site, Machiasport, Maine, 2003-2006

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, collected borehole geophysical logs in 18 boreholes and interpreted the data along with logs from 19 additional boreholes as part of an ongoing, collaborative investigation at three environmental restoration sites in Machiasport, Maine. These sites, located on hilltops overlooking the seacoast, formerly were used for military defense. At each of the sites, chlorinated solvents, used as part of defense-site operations, have contaminated the fractured-rock aquifer. Borehole geophysical techniques and hydraulic methods were used to characterize bedrock lithology, fractures, and hydraulic properties. In addition, each geophysical method was evaluated for effectiveness for site characterization and for potential application for further aquifer characterization and (or) evaluation of remediation efforts. Results of borehole geophysical logging indicate the subsurface is highly fractured, metavolcanic, intrusive, metasedimentary bedrock. Selected geophysical logs were cross-plotted to assess correlations between rock properties. These plots included combinations of gamma, acoustic reflectivity, electromagnetic induction conductivity, normal resistivity, and single-point resistance. The combined use of acoustic televiewer (ATV) imaging and natural gamma logs proved to be effective for delineating rock types. Each of the rock units in the study area could be mapped in the boreholes, on the basis of the gamma and ATV reflectivity signatures. The gamma and mean ATV reflectivity data were used along with the other geophysical logs for an integrated interpretation, yielding a determination of quartz monzonite, rhyolite, metasedimentary units, or diabase/gabbro rock types. The interpretation of rock types on the basis of the geophysical logs compared well to drilling logs and geologic mapping. These results may be helpful for refining the geologic framework at depth. A stereoplot of all fractures intersecting the boreholes indicates numerous fractures, a high proportion of steeply dipping fractures, and considerable variation in fracture orientation. Low-dip-angle fractures associated with unloading and exfoliation are also present, especially at a depth of less than 100 feet below the top of casing. These sub-horizontal fractures help to connect the steeply dipping fractures, making this a highly connected fracture network. The high variability in the fracture orientations also increases the connectivity of the fracture network. A preliminary comparison of all fracture data from all the boreholes suggests fracturing decreases with depth. Because all the boreholes were not drilled to the same depth, however, there is a clear sampling bias. Hence, the deepest boreholes are analyzed separately for fracture density. For the deepest boreholes in the study, the intensity of fracturing does not decline significantly with depth. It is possible the fractures observed in these boreholes become progressively tighter or closed with depth, but this is difficult to verify with the borehole methods used in this investigation. The fact that there are more sealed fractures at depth (observed in optical televiewer logs in some of the boreholes) may indicate less opening of the sealed fractures, less water moving through the rock, and less weathering of the fracture infilling minerals. Although the fracture orientation remained fairly constant with depth, differences in the fracture patterns for the three restoration sites indicate the orientation of fractures varies across the study area. The fractures in boreholes on Miller Mountain predominantly strike northwest-southeast, and to a lesser degree they strike northeast. The fractures on or near the summit of Howard Mountain strike predominantly east-west and dip north and south, and the fractures near the Transmitter Site strike northeast-southwest and dip northwest and southeast. The fracture populations for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain show more variation than at the other two sites. This variation may be related to the proximity of the fault, which is northeast of the summit of Howard Mountain. In a side-by-side comparison of stereoplots from selected boreholes, there was no clear correspondence between fracture orientation and proximity to the fault. There is, however, a difference in the total populations of fractures for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain and the boreholes near the Transmitter Site. Further to the southwest and further away from the fault, the fractures at the Transmitter Site predominantly strike northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast.Heat-pulse flowmeter (HPFM) logging was used to identify transmissive fractures and to estimate the hydraulic properties along the boreholes. Ambient downflow was measured in 13 boreholes and ambient upflow was measured in 9 boreholes. In nine other bedrock boreholes, the HPFM did not detect measurable vertical flow. The observed direction of vertical flow in the boreholes generally was consistent with the conceptual flow model of downward movement in recharge locations and upward flow in discharge locations or at breaks in the slope of land surface. Under low-rate pumping or injection rates [0.25 to 1 gallon per minute (gal/min)], one to three inflow zones were identified in each borehole. Two limitations of HPFM methods are (1) the HPFM can only identify zones within 1.5 to 2 orders of magnitude of the most transmissive zone in each borehole, and (2) the HPFM cannot detect flow rates less than 0.010 + or - 0.005 gal/min, which corresponds to a transmissivity of about 1 foot squared per day (ft2/d). Consequently, the HPFM is considered an effective tool for identifying the most transmissive fractures in a borehole, down to its detection level. Transmissivities below that cut-off must be measured with another method, such as packer testing or fluid-replacement logging. Where sufficient water-level and flowmeter data were available, HPFM results were numerically modeled. For each borehole model, the fracture location and measured flow rates were specified, and the head and transmissivity of each fracture zone were adjusted until a model fit was achieved with the interpreted ambient and stressed flow profiles. The transmissivities calculated by this method are similar to the results of an open-hole slug test; with the added information from the flowmeter, however, the head and transmissivity of discrete zones also can be determined. The discrete-interval transmissivities ranged from 0.16 to 330 ft2/d. The flowmeter-derived open-hole transmissivity, which is the combined total of each of the transmissive zones, ranged from 1 to 511 ft2/d. The whole-well open-hole transmissivity values determined with HPFM methods were compared to the results of open-hole hydraulic tests. Despite the fact that the flowmeter-derived transmissivities consistently were lower than the estimates derived from open-hole hydraulic tests alone, the correlation was very strong (with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.9866), indicating the HPFM method provides a reasonable estimate of transmissivities for the most transmissive fractures in the borehole. Geologic framework, fracture characterization, and estimates of hydraulic properties were interpreted together to characterize the fracture network. The data and interpretation presented in this report should provide information useful for site investigators as the conceptual site groundwater flow model is refined. Collectively, the results and the conceptual site model are important for evaluating remediation options and planning or implementing the design of a well field and borehole completions that will be adequate for monitoring flow, remediation efforts, groundwater levels, and (or) water quality. Similar kinds of borehole geophysical logging (specifically the borehole imaging, gamma, fluid logs, and HPFM) should be conducted in any newly installed boreholes and integrated with interpretations of any nearby boreholes. If boreholes are installed close to existing or other new boreholes, cross-hole flowmeter surveys may be appropriate and may help characterize the aquifer properties and connections between the boreholes.

Maine↗

Hydrogeologic conceptual model of groundwater occurrence and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado

Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River is a major concern in the southwestern United States where the river provides water to about 40 million people for municipal and industrial use and is used to irrigate about 5.5 million acres of land. Much of the salinity in the Colorado River Basin is derived from natural interactions of surface water and groundwater with various geologic materials (rocks, soils, and alluvial deposits). The Dolores River in southwest Colorado is a major tributary of the Colorado River that historically accounts for about 6 percent of the salinity load to the Upper Colorado River Basin with the Paradox Valley being the primary source of salinity to the Dolores River. The Paradox Valley, one of several salt-anticline valleys in the region, is a fault-bounded topographic basin aligned with and exposing an underlying salt-anticline core. Salt deposits in the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation of the Hermosa Group form an elongated salt diapir oriented northwest to southeast that is up to 12,000 feet (ft) thick beneath the present valley floor. Surface erosion, groundwater circulation, and weathering during Tertiary and Quaternary valley formation contributed to development of a cap rock, collapse features, breccia, and brine at the top of the exposed salt diapir. Today (2023), brine occurring in the brecciated cap rock and underlying salt deposits is in hydraulic connection with an overlying freshwater alluvial aquifer, and depending on seasonal river stage and hydrologic conditions, the brine discharges to the Dolores River causing the observed increase in salinity as the river crosses the Paradox Valley. To reduce salinity concentrations in the Dolores River, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Paradox Valley Unit (PVU). The PVU project consists of nine shallow brine pumping wells near the Dolores River and one deep disposal well where the brine is injected for disposal. When operational, the PVU pumping wells extract brine from the base of the alluvial aquifer that is piped and injected into a deep disposal well about 3 miles southwest of the PVU. The PVU became fully operational July 1, 1996, and by 2015, operation of the PVU had reduced salinity concentrations in the Dolores River by as much as 70 percent compared to pre-PVU conditions. In response to a 4.5 magnitude earthquake, injection operations, and thus PVU pumping, were ceased from March 2019 to June 2022. A trial period of PVU operation began in June 2022 with a reduced injection rate, and thus PVU pumping rate, of about two-thirds capacity to gather additional information and guide future operational decisions. In cooperation with Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this report to present the current (2023) understanding of groundwater and brine occurrence and discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley. Results from the compilation of spatial datasets, groundwater sampling and age dating, and aquifer tests are presented to provide improved understanding of the Paradox Valley hydrogeology, to supply datasets for a numerical groundwater-flow and brine-transport model, and to support future operations of the PVU. The hydrogeologic data provided herein, along with the most recent loading analysis for the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, and a previous conceptual model for brine discharge to the river are used to present a conceptual understanding of groundwater occurrence in the Paradox Valley.

Colorado↗

Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties, California

Increasing population, agricultural development (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are placing increasingly larger demands on available groundwater resources in the Pajaro Valley, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This study provided a refined conceptual model, geohydrologic framework, and integrated hydrologic model of the Pajaro Valley. The goal of this study was to produce a model capable of being accurate at scales relevant to water management decisions that are being considered in the revision and updates to the Basin Management Plan (BMP). The Pajaro Valley Hydrologic Model (PVHM) was designed to reproduce the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system and related climatic factors, permitting an accurate assessment of groundwater conditions and processes that can inform the new BMP and help to improve planning for long-term sustainability of water resources. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, reevaluation of the previous model transformed into MODFLOW, implementation of the new geohydrologic model and conceptual model, and calibration of the transient hydrologic model. The PVHM model, using MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MF-FMP2), is capable of being accurate at seasonal to interannual time frames and subregional to valley-wide spatial scales for the assessment of the groundwater hydrologic budget for water years 1964–2009, as well as potential assessment of the BMP components and sustainability analysis of conjunctive use. The model provides a good representation of the regional flow system and the use and movement of water throughout the valley. Simulated changes in storage over time show that, prior to the 1984–92 dry period, significant withdrawals from storage occurred only during drought years. Since about 1993, growers in the Pajaro Valley have shifted to more water intensive crops, such as strawberries, bushberries, and vegetable row crops, as well as making additional rotational plantings, which have increased demand on limited groundwater resources. Simulated groundwater flow indicates that vertical hydraulic gradients between horizontal layers fluctuate and even reverse in several parts of the basin as recharge and pumpage rates change seasonally and annually. The majority of recharge predominantly enters the Alluvial aquifer system, and along with pumpage and the largest fractions of storage depletion, occurs in the inland regions. Coastal inflow as seawater intrusion replaces much of the potential storage depletion in the coastal regions. The simulated long-term imbalance between inflows and outflows indicates overdraft of the groundwater basin averaging about 12,950 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) over the 46-year period of water years (1964–2009). Annual overdraft varies considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatically driven factors can affect inflows, outflows, and water use by as much as a factor of two between wet and dry years. Coastal inflows and outflows vary by year and by aquifer; the net coastal inflow, or seawater intrusion, ranges from about 1,000 to more than 6,000 acre-ft/yr. Maps of simulated and measured water-level elevations indicate regions with water levels below sea level in the alluvium and Aromas layers. Ongoing expansion of local hydrologic monitoring networks indicates the importance of these networks to the understanding of changes in groundwater flow, streamflow, and streamflow infiltration. In particular, the monitoring of streamflow, groundwater pumpage, and groundwater levels throughout the valley not only indicates the state of the resources, but also provides valuable information for model calibration and for model-based evaluation of management actions. The HS-ASR was simulated for the years 2002–09, and replaced about about 1,290 acre-ft of coastal pumpage. This was combined with the simulation of additional 6,200 acre-ft of deliveries from supplemental wells, recycled water, and city connection deliveries through the CDS that also supplanted some coastal pumpage. Total simulated deliveries were 7,350 acre-ft of the 7,500 acre-ft of reported deliveries for the period 2002-09. The completed CDS should be capable of delivering about 8.8 million cubic meters (7,150 acre-ft) of water per year to coastal farms within the Pajaro Valley, if all the local supply components were fully available for this purpose. This would represent about 15 percent of the 48,300 acre-ft (59.6 million cubic meters) average agricultural pumpage for the period 2005 to 2009. Combined with the potential capture and reuse of some of the return flows and tile-drain flows, this could represent an almost 70 percent reduction of average overdraft for the entire valley and a large part of the coastal pumpage that induces seawater intrusion.

California↗

Flood-inundation maps for Nimishillen Creek near North Industry, Ohio, 2019

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4-mile reach of Nimishillen Creek near North Industry, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, Ohio, and the Stark County Board of Commissioners. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) Program website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on Nimishillen Creek at North Industry, Ohio (station number 03118500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage can be obtained on the internet from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current stage-discharge relation at the streamgage on Nimishillen Creek at North Industry and documented high-water marks from the flood of January 12, 2017. The hydraulic model was then used to compute seven water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 8 to 14 ft, which is from “action stage” to above “major flood stage” as reported by the National Weather Service. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used in combination with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data to delineate the areas flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage and forecasted high-flow stages from the National Weather Service, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts. Forecasts for the USGS streamgage on Nimishillen Creek at North Industry, Ohio are issued as needed during times of high water, but are not routinely available (National Weather Service, 2017).

Ohio↗

2022 drought in New England

Introduction During April through September 2022, much of New England experienced a short but extreme hydrologic drought that was similar to the drought of 2020. By August 2022, Providence, Rhode Island, was declared a Federal disaster area, and New London and Windham counties in Connecticut were declared natural disaster areas. Mandatory water use restrictions were put in place in communities in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island (Mecray and Borisoff, 2022). Precipitation in many areas of New England fell below normal levels in November 2021 and continued to decline until September 2022, contributing to low streamflows and groundwater levels in the region. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow and groundwater conditions from April to September 2022 were used to characterize the hydrologic component of this short-duration drought. Several record low streamflows and groundwater levels were observed across New England, even falling below 2020 levels in parts of southern New England. The severity of this drought varied across New England, and regional and statewide perspectives are presented in this report. Highlights May through August in 2022 ranked as the driest for those 4 months in 138 years of record at Boston, Massachusetts, with only 5.74 inches of rain (average of 13.26 inches). Water levels at 95 USGS groundwater monitoring wells across New England were below normal in August; 16 of these wells recorded their lowest August water level in 25 years. Flows at 54 USGS streamgages across New England were below normal in August, and 10 of those streamgages recorded their lowest August flows in 30 years. Two USGS streamgages in Massachusetts (stations 01105600 and 01171500 with 56 and 83 years of record, respectively) had record 7-day average low flows on August 21, 2022, and August 22, 2022, respectively.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Base flow, water quality, and streamflow gain and loss of the Buffalo River, Arkansas, and selected tributaries, July and August 2003

A study of the Buffalo National River in north-central Arkansas was conducted between July 28-30 and August 13-15, 2003, to characterize the base-flow and water-quality characteristics and streamflow gain and loss in the Buffalo River. The study was separated into two time periods because of a precipitation event that occurred on the afternoon of July 30 causing appreciable storm runoff. Streamflow was separated to identify base-flow and surface-runoff components using the Base Flow Index hydrograph separation computer program. Base-flow separation analyses indicated annual variability in streamflow throughout the Buffalo River Basin. Based upon these analyses, total and base flow were below average for the mainstem of the river and Richland Creek during the 2003 water year. Waterquality samples were collected from 25 surface-water sites on the Buffalo River and selected tributaries. Most nutrient concentrations for the mainstem of the Buffalo River were near or below the minimum reporting level and were less than the median flow-weighted concentration for relatively undeveloped stream basins in the United States. Streamflow measurement data were collected at 44 locations along the mainstem of the Buffalo River and at points of inflow (prior to confluence with the mainstem) to identify gaining and losing reaches. Seven gaining and five losing reaches were identified for the Buffalo River. Additionally, surface flow on the mainstem of the Buffalo River was diverted to subsurface flow on the mainstem at two locations (river miles 73.6 and 131.6) where the mainstem was found to be dry. Reaches throughout the length of the river had calculated gains or losses that were less than the sum of measurement errors for the respective reaches of river.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulated effects of groundwater pumping and artificial recharge on surface-water resources and riparian vegetation in the Verde Valley sub-basin, Central Arizona

In the Verde Valley sub-basin, groundwater use has increased in recent decades. Residents and stakeholders in the area have established several groups to help in planning for sustainability of water and other resources of the area. One of the issues of concern is the effect of groundwater pumping in the sub-basin on surface water and on groundwater-dependent riparian vegetation. The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater-Flow Model by Pool and others (in press) is the most comprehensive and up-to-date tool available to understand the effects of groundwater pumping in the sub-basin. Using a procedure by Leake and others (2008), this model was modified and used to calculate effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water flow and evapotranspiration for areas in the sub-basin. This report presents results for the upper two model layers for pumping durations of 10 and 50 years. Results are in the form of maps that indicate the fraction of the well pumping rate that can be accounted for as the combined effect of reduced surface-water flow and evapotranspiration. In general, the highest and most rapid responses to pumping were computed to occur near surface-water features simulated in the modified model, but results are not uniform along these features. The results are intended to indicate general patterns of model-computed response over large areas. For site-specific projects, improved results may require detailed studies of the local hydrologic conditions and a refinement of the modified model in the area of interest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Regional water table (2010) in the Mojave River and Morongo Groundwater basins, southwestern Mojave Desert, California

Since 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Mojave Water Agency (MWA), has constructed a series of regional water-table maps for intermittent years in a continuing effort to monitor groundwater conditions in the Mojave River and Morongo groundwater basins. The previously published data, which were used to construct these maps, can be accessed on the interactive map. The associated reports describing the groundwater conditions for the Mojave River groundwater basin for 1992 (Stamos and Predmore, 1995), the Morongo groundwater basin for 1994 (Trayler and Koczot, 1995), and for both groundwater basins for 1996 (Mendez and Christensen, 1997); for 1998 (Smith and Pimentel, 2000), for 2000 (Smith, 2002), for 2002 (Smith and others, 2004), for 2004 (Stamos and others, 2004), for 2006 (Stamos and others, 2007), and for 2008 (Stamos and others, 2009) can be accessed using this web site. Mapping of water-level contours and water-level change were combined in an interactive map. This interactive map may be customized to your needs and viewed at a scale that is appropriate for the data.

California↗

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contributions to wildlife habitat, management issues, challenges and policy choices--an annotated bibliography

The following bibliography presents brief summaries of documents relevant to Conservation Reserve Program relations to wildlife habitat, habitat management in agriculturally dominated landscapes, and conservation policies potentially affecting wildlife habitats in agricultural ecosystems. Because the literature summaries furnished provide only sweeping overviews, users are urged to obtain and evaluate those papers appearing useful to obtain a more complete understanding of study findings and their implications to conservation in agricultural ecosystems. The bibliography contains references to reports that reach beyond topics that directly relate to the Conservation Reserve Program. Sections addressing grassland management and landowner surveys/opinions, for example, furnish information useful for enhancing development and administration of conservation policies affecting lands beyond those enrolled in conservation programs. Some sections of the bibliography (for example, agricultural conservation policy, economics, soils) are far from inclusive of all relevant material written on the subject. Hopefully, these sections will serve as fundamental introductions to related issues. In a few instances, references may be presented in more than one section of the bibliography. For example, individual papers specifically addressing both non-game and game birds are included in respective sections of the bibliography. Duplication of citations and associated notes has, however, been kept to a minimum.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulation of water-management scenarios for the Mississippi Delta

To compare the effectiveness of proposed alternative water-supply scenarios on future water availability in the Mississippi Delta, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality are collaborating on the update and enhancement of an existing regional groundwater-flow model of the area. Through this collaboration, the model has been updated to include boundary conditions through March 2014 with the most recent water-use data, precipitation and recharge data, and streamflow and water-level observation data. The updated model has been used to evaluate selected alternative water-supply scenarios to determine relative effects on the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Alternative water-supply options evaluated in this report include: (1) irrigation efficiency, (2) on-farm storage and tailwater recovery, (3) instream weirs to increase surface-water availability, (4) intrabasin transfer of surface water, and (5) groundwater transfer and injection. A relative comparison approach was used to calculate the simulated water-level response caused by each scenario. Water-level response is the difference between water levels simulated by the alternative water-supply scenario and those simulated by a base or “no action” scenario. Water-level response in the alluvial aquifer varied for each scenario based on the location, magnitude, and (or) adoption rates of the simulated alternative water-supply option. The groundwater transfer and injection scenario showed the largest water-level response.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri↗

Water-use trends in the desert southwest: 1950-2000

The population of the Desert Southwest is among the fastest growing in the country. In this area, ground-water supplies have been developed, surface-water resources have been fully appropriated, and conservation and conjunctive water-use measures are being used to meet water-resource needs. Complex networks of water-distribution systems have been developed to deliver surface-water supplies, and interstate agreements, such as the Colorado River Compact of 1922, help manage the distribution of water among many States in the Western United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The Colorado River, which lies on the borders of Arizona, California, and Nevada, plays an important role in supplying water to the Southwest. Water from the Colorado River is used to irrigate extensive farmland in the southern California deserts and is delivered to southern and central Arizona through the Central Arizona Project canal for domestic and agricultural uses. It is also the source of much of the water used for domestic purposes in southern Nevada. Estimated water-withdrawal and related data were compiled from various sources to identify trends in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. More water is used for agriculture than domestic and industrial use in these five States. From 1950 to 2000, however, the percentage increase in withdrawal for domestic water use exceeded that for agricultural use. The estimated amount of water withdrawn for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah increased 58 percent, from 39.6 to 62.8 million acre-feet, from 1950 to 2000. During this period withdrawals for domestic water use, which included self-supplied domestic and public supply (all deliveries to residential, commercial, and some industrial users), increased 410 percent from 2.0 million to 10.2 million acre-feet and the population in these five Southwestern States increased 250 percent. From 1965 to 2000, water withdrawals for agriculture, which were primarily for irrigation of crops and livestock uses, increased 14 percent in the five States, from 44.0 to 50.2 million acre-feet, while irrigated acreage increased 12 percent from 12.6 to 14.1 million acres. Water-use trends in the Southwest are dominated by water use in California where crop acreage is more than twice as large as the combined crop acreages in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, and the population in 2000 was more than three times larger than the combined population of these States. Withdrawals for agriculture in California accounted for 62 percent of the water withdrawals for agriculture in the five States in 1950 and 68 percent in 2000. Water withdrawals for domestic-water use in California declined from 82 percent of the total domestic-water withdrawals in all five States in 1950 to 70 percent in 2000, indicating that the need for domestic withdrawals increased more in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah combined than in California. The population of California is larger than the combined population of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah, but the combined population of these smaller States grew faster than the population of California. From 1950 to 2000 the California population increased 220 percent, but the combined population of the four other States increased 390 percent. From 1960 to 2000, public supply per-capita use increased in Arizona, New Mexico, and California, and decreased in Nevada and Utah. Crop-application rates (water withdrawal for irrigation of crops divided by the irrigated crop acreage) from 1965 to 2000 ranged from 2.32 acre-feet per acre in Utah in 1975 to 6.21 acre-feet per acre in Arizona in 2000. More water is used per acre of irrigated land in Arizona than in the other four States. This could be due to several reasons, including differences in climate, conveyance losses, length of growing season, and type of crops grown. Trends in water withdrawals for industrial use are difficult to identify because of differences in data reporting from year to year. From 1950 to 2000, withdrawal for industrial use in the five States was generally less than 6 percent of the total withdrawal. Withdrawal for industrial use was less than 4 percent of the total withdrawal in Arizona, except in 1990; industrial withdrawal was less than 6 percent in California and less than 7 percent in Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah, except in 1980 when in Utah it was almost 12 percent of the total withdrawal. From 1950 to 2000, ground-water withdrawals increased 324 percent in Nevada, 147 percent in New Mexico, 208 percent in Utah, and 52 percent in California. Ground-water withdrawal decreased 15 percent in Arizona. For all five States, ground-water withdrawals increased 62 percent.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, allowing for greater oil and gas production from previously unrecoverable reservoirs. Quantification of the water resources required for UOG development and production is difficult because of disparate data sources, variable reporting requirements across boundaries (local, State, and national), and incomplete or proprietary datasets. A topical study was started in 2015 under the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water Availability and Use Science Program, as part of the directive in the Secure Water Act for the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a National Water Census, to better understand the relation between production of UOG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The Water Availability and Use Science Program goal for this topical study is to develop and apply a statistical model to better estimate the water use associated with UOG development, regardless of the location and target geologic formation. As a first step, a conceptual model has been developed to characterize the life cycle of water use in areas of UOG development. Categories of water use and the way water-use data are collected might change over time; therefore, a generic approach was used in developing the conceptual model to allow for greater flexibility in adapting to future changes or newly available data. UOG development can be summarized into four stages: predrilling construction, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and ongoing production. The water used in UOG production can be categorized further as direct, indirect, or ancillary water use. Direct water use is defined as the water used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing a well and for maintaining the well during ongoing production. Indirect water use is defined as the water used at or near a well pad. The water used for dust abatement also is considered an indirect use but may be applied away from the well pad. Ancillary water use is defined as the additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) directly related to UOG development throughout the life cycle that is not used directly in the well or indirectly for any other purpose at the well pad. The conceptual model presented in this report consists of five elements: (1) input data, (2) processes, (3) decisions, (4) output data, and (5) outcomes. The input data requirements for estimating water use associated with UOG development are somewhat onerous, and obtaining suitable datasets can be challenging because local, State, and Federal agencies do not collect data similarly. The quality of a water-use assessment that uses the conceptual model presented in this report is dependent on the quality and quantity of data that are available for a UOG play. The conceptual model can be used for an assessment with sparse data; however, having sparse data likely will result in greater uncertainty in the water-use estimates. The conceptual model presented in this report is designed to be robust to characterize and simulate the data processing to estimate water use associated with UOG development. Although the results of an analysis that includes missing data have greater uncertainty, the analysis still can be insightful because it can establish a baseline estimate of UOG water use that may be refined further as more data become available. Analysis of models that include missing data also could aid in identifying the data most needed for future water-use estimates. Characterizing individual model limitations is important because the conceptual model can be used in future water-use studies to facilitate data compiling, data processing, estimating, and assessing UOG activities regardless of location.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Phosphorus Concentrations, Loads, and Yields in the Illinois River Basin, Arkansas and Oklahoma, 2000-2004

The Illinois River and tributaries, Flint Creek and Baron Fork, are designated scenic rivers in Oklahoma. Recent phosphorus levels in streams in the basin have resulted in the growth of excess algae, which have limited the aesthetic benefits of water bodies in the basin, especially the Illinois River and Lake Tenkiller. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board has established a standard for total phosphorus not to exceed the 30-day geometric mean concentration of 0.037 milligram per liter in Oklahoma Scenic Rivers. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an investigation to summarize phosphorus concentrations and provide estimates of phosphorus loads, yields, and flow-weighted concentrations in the Illinois River and tributaries from January 2000 through December 2004. Data from water-quality samples collected from 2000 to 2004 were used to summarize phosphorus concentrations and estimate phosphorus loads, yields, and mean flow-weighted concentrations in the Illinois River basin for three 3-year periods - 2000-2002, 2001-2003, and 2002-2004, to update a previous report that used data from water-quality samples from 1997 to 2001. This report provides information needed to advance knowledge of the regional hydrologic system and understanding of hydrologic processes, and provides hydrologic data and results useful to multiple parties for interstate compacts. Phosphorus concentrations in the Illinois River basin were significantly greater in runoff samples than in base-flow samples. Phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with increasing base flow, from dilution, and decreased in the downstream direction in the Illinois River from the Watts to Tahlequah stations. Phosphorus concentrations generally increased with runoff, possibly because of phosphorus resuspension, stream bank erosion, and the addition of phosphorus from nonpoint sources. Estimated mean annual phosphorus loads were greater at the Illinois River stations than at Flint Creek and Baron Fork. Annual total loads in the Illinois River from Watts to Tahlequah, increased slightly for the period 2000-2002 and decreased slightly for the periods 2001-2003 and 2002-2004. Estimated mean annual base-flow loads at stations on the Illinois River were about 11 to 20 times greater than base-flow loads at the station on Baron Fork and 4 to 10 times greater than base-flow loads at the station on Flint Creek. Estimated mean annual runoff loads ranged from 68 to 96 percent of the estimated mean annual total phosphorus loads from 2000-2004. Estimated mean seasonal base-flow loads were generally greatest in spring (March through May) and were least in fall (September through November). Estimated mean seasonal runoff loads generally were greatest in summer (June through August) for the period 2000-2002, but were greatest in winter (December through February) for the period 2001-2003, and greatest in spring for the period 2002-2004. Estimated mean total yields of phosphorus ranged from 192 to 811 pounds per year per square mile, with greatest yields being reported for Illinois River near Watts (576 to 811 pounds per year per square mile), and the least yields being reported for Baron Fork at Eldon for the periods 2000-2002 and 2001-2003 (501 and 192 pounds per year per square mile) and for Illinois River near Tahlequah for the period 2002-2004 (370 pounds per year per square mile). Estimated mean flow-weighted concentrations were more than 10 times greater than the median (0.022 milligram per liter) and were consistently greater than the 75th percentile of flow-weighted phosphorus concentrations in samples collected at relatively undeveloped basins of the United States (0.037 milligram per liter). In addition, flow-weighted phosphorus concentrations in 2000-2002 at all Illinois River stations and at Flint Creek near Kansas were equal to or greater than the 75th percentile of all National Water-Quality Assessment Program station

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Conceptual hydrogeologic framework and groundwater budget near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington

More than 1 million people live within the active model area (AMA) in the southeastern part of the lowlands surrounding Puget Sound, or Puget Lowland, Washington, and groundwater is the source for approximately one-half of their public, domestic, and irrigation water demands. The 887-square-mile AMA, located in King and Pierce Counties, represents the area of analysis for the conceptual hydrogeologic framework and numerical groundwater-flow models within the study area and includes the Puyallup River and Chambers-Clover Creek watersheds. To assess the potential hydrologic and anthropogenic impacts to groundwater and the connected surface-water resources, conceptual and numerical groundwater-flow models of groundwater flow were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Washington Water Science Center in close cooperation with 18 water-resource agencies and stakeholders. This report presents information used to characterize the groundwater-flow system and the development of a numerical model in the AMA. Included are descriptions of the geology and conceptual hydrogeologic framework, groundwater levels and flow directions, groundwater recharge and discharge, numerical groundwater-flow model construction and results, and model limitations. The study area encompasses the western part of Pierce County and the southwestern part of King County, Washington. The study area extends south to the Nisqually River, southwest to Tanwax Creek, northeast to the Green River, and north through the valley near Auburn and adjacent uplands. It is bounded on the east by foothills of the Cascade Range, and on the northwest by Puget Sound.

Washington↗