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Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: Creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Sustainability Science↗

Profiling lunar dust dissolution in aqueous environments: The design concept

Published studies and internal NASA reports indicate that when native lunar dust is suspended in an aqueous solution a variety of metal and other ions are released. This release has implications for future lunar missions, ranging from effects on mission hardware, effects on life support systems, possible direct effects on human health, and effects on research experiments such as plant growth experiments, space biology experiments and any activities that may involve the use of water sourced from the lunar poles. Furthermore, such contaminants could become concentrated or chemically altered to a more hazardous form during a variety of lunar mission activities, including everything from space suit cleaning to lunar industrial materials extraction. The exact profile of the release of ions from lunar dust and the nature of the partially dissolved particles has not been explored. Any model of this dissolution must be based on an understanding of the unique micromorphology of lunar dust, including its glassy nature, agglutinate features, high surface area and the presence of small deposits of elemental iron (nanophase iron) located near the surface of the grain particles. Dust has a very high surface area available for interaction with water. For this reason, on first exposure to water, an immediate pulsed release of ions could occur, with more prolonged release taking place over months or years. The few studies that have been conducted previously have been limited in both the time scales examined and in the selection of ions that were measured. The proposed investigation is a comprehensive materials science investigation, using the most modern analytical tools to catalogue all metals given off from lunar dust in various aqueous solutions and their time profiles of release from the very short term to the very long term. The product of the proposed study will be a comprehensive database determined from NASA curated samples collected from the Apollo landing sites that can be applied to research in both living systems and non-living systems on the moon. The methods developed in the proposed study will also establish standards for analysis of lunar dust samples returned from future manned missions (Artemis and others) and future robotic missions. The knowledge gained from this basic materials science investigation will have broad impact on the design of engineered human safety and health systems.

Acta Astronautica↗

Naturalized species drive functional trait shifts in plant communities

Despite decades of research documenting the consequences of naturalized and invasive plant species on ecosystem functions, our understanding of the functional underpinnings of these changes remains rudimentary. This is partially due to ineffective scaling of trait differences between native and naturalized species to whole plant communities. Working with data from over 75,000 plots and over 5,500 species from across the United States, we show that changes in the functional composition of communities associated with increasing abundance of naturalized species mirror the differences in traits between native and naturalized plants. We find that communities with greater abundance of naturalized species are more resource acquisitive aboveground and belowground, shorter, more shallowly rooted, and increasingly aligned with an independent strategy for belowground resource acquisition via thin fine roots with high specific root length. We observe shifts toward herbaceous-dominated communities but shifts within both woody and herbaceous functional groups follow community-level patterns for most traits. Patterns are remarkably similar across desert, grassland, and forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that the establishment and spread of naturalized species, likely in combination with underlying environmental shifts, leads to predictable and consistent changes in community-level traits that can alter ecosystem functions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗

Movement analysis of free-grazing domestic ducks in Poyang Lake, China: A disease connection

Previous work suggests domestic poultry are important contributors to the emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza throughout Asia. In Poyang Lake, China, domestic duck production cycles are synchronized with arrival and departure of thousands of migratory wild birds in the area. During these periods, high densities of juvenile domestic ducks are in close proximity to migratory wild ducks, increasing the potential for the virus to be transmitted and subsequently disseminated via migration. In this paper, we use GPS dataloggers and dynamic Brownian bridge models to describe movements and habitat use of free-grazing domestic ducks in the Poyang Lake basin and identify specific areas that may have the highest risk of H5N1 transmission between domestic and wild birds. Specifically, we determine relative use by free-grazing domestic ducks of natural wetlands, which are the most heavily used areas by migratory wild ducks, and of rice paddies, which provide habitat for resident wild ducks and lower densities of migratory wild ducks. To our knowledge, this is the first movement study on domestic ducks, and our data show potential for free-grazing domestic ducks from farms located near natural wetlands to come in contact with wild waterfowl, thereby increasing the risk for disease transmission. This study provides an example of the importance of movement ecology studies in understanding dynamics such as disease transmission on a complicated landscape.

Poyang Lake↗

Movement patterns of Antillean manatees in Chetumal Bay (Mexico) and coastal Belize: A challenge for regional conservation

Information from 15 satellite-tracked Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) was analyzed in order to assess individual movements, home ranges, and high-use areas for conservation decisions. Manatees were captured in Chetumal Bay, Mexico, and tagged with Argos-monitored satellite transmitters. Location of the manatees and physical characteristics were assessed to describe habitat properties. Most manatees traveled to freshwater sources. The Maximum Area Size (MAS) for each manatee was determined using the observation-area method. Additional kernel densities of 95% home range and 50% Center of Activity (COA) were also calculated, with manatees having 1–3 COAs. Manatees exhibited two different movement patterns: remaining in Chetumal Bay, and long-distance (up to 240 km in 89 d). The residence time in Chetumal Bay was higher for females (89.6% of time) than for males (72.0%), but the daily travel rate (0.4–0.5 km/d) was similar for both sexes. Most of the COAs fell within Natural Protected Areas (NPA). However, manatees also travel for long distances into unprotected areas, where they face uncontrolled boat traffic, fishing activities, and habitat loss. Conservation of movement corridors may promote long-distance movements and facilitate genetic exchange.

Chetumal Bay↗

Silurian-Devonian age and tectonic setting of the Connecticut Valley-Gaspé trough of Vermont using U-Pb SHRIMP analyses of detrital zircons

U-Pb SHRIMP ages of detrital zircons from metasedimentary rocks of the Connecticut Valley-Gaspe' trough in Vermont corroborate a Silurian-Devonian age of deposition for these strata and constrain their provenances. Ages of randomly selected detrital zircons obtained from quartzites within the Waits River and Gile Mountain Formations range from Archean to Devonian with Mesoproterozoic, Neoproterozoic, Ordovician, and Silurian age populations suggesting both eastern and western sources of the sediments. The two youngest single-grain detrital zircon ages from samples collected in the Waits River Formation are 418 ± 7 and 415 ± 2 Ma. The youngest single-grain detrital zircon age from the eastern part of the Gile Mountain Formation is 411 ± 8. The youngest detrital zircons from the western portion of the Gile Mountain Formation comprise an age population with a weighted average of 409 ± 5 Ma. These~409 Ma zircons are likely of volcanic origin, perhaps derived from the Piscataquis magmatic belt to the east. The absence of younger volcanic zircons in the coarser-grained eastern facies of the Gile Mountain Formation suggests the eastern sediments are older and were buried during Piscataquis volcanism and deposition in the west. The shift in protoliths from calcareous silts and muds of the Waits River Formation to quartzo-feldspathic sands of the Gile Mountain Formation implies a change from a continental slope-like depositional environment to a near-shore or terrestrial environment of deposition. This change supports a transition in the nature of the basin from an intercontinental back-arc extensional setting to a foreland basin setting. Maximum depositional ages of sediments above and below this facies boundary constrain the timing of transition in basin style between about 415 and 411 Ma. Given the timing of the approaching Acadian wedge, this shift in basin style likely reflects westward migration of thrust sheets during the Acadian orogeny. The finegrained nature of the youngest silts, muds and turbidites suggests that sedimentation occurred in increasingly deeper water. The implied basin subsidence was likely caused by lithospheric flexure as the Acadian wedge approached from the east. The timing of this subsidence is constrained to be younger than the youngest zircons at about 409 Ma.

Vermont↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Peak-Flow File Data Verification Project, 2008–16

Annual peak streamflow (peak flow) at a streamgage is defined as the maximum instantaneous flow in a water year. A water year begins on October 1 and continues through September 30 of the following year; for example, water year 2015 extends from October 1, 2014, through September 30, 2015. The accuracy, characterization, and completeness of the peak streamflow data are critical in determining flood-frequency estimates that are used daily to design water and transportation infrastructure, delineate flood-plain boundaries, and regulate development and utilization of lands throughout the United States and are essential to understanding the implications of climate and land-use change on flooding and high-flow conditions. As of November 14, 2016, peak-flow data existed for 27,240 unique streamgages in the United States and its territories. The data, collectively referred to as the “peak-flow file,” are available as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) public web interface, the National Water Information System, at https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak . Although the data have been routinely subjected to periodic review by the USGS Office of Surface Water and screening at the USGS Water Science Center level, these data were not reviewed in a national, systematic manner until 2008 when automated scripts were developed and applied to detect potential errors in peak-flow values and their associated dates, gage heights, and peak-flow qualification codes, as well as qualification codes associated with the gage heights. USGS scientists and hydrographers studied the resulting output, accessed basic records and field notes, and corrected observed errors or, more commonly, confirmed existing data as correct. This report summarizes the changes in peak-flow file data at a national level, illustrates their nature and causation, and identifies the streamgages affected by these changes. Specifically, the peak-flow data were compared for streamgages with peak flow measured as of November 19, 2008 (before the automated scripts were widely applied) and on November 14, 2016 (after several rounds of corrections). There were 659,332 peak-flow values in the 2008 dataset and 731,965 peak-flow values in the 2016 dataset. When compared to the 2016 dataset, 5,179 (0.79 percent) peak-flow values had changed; 36,506 (5.54 percent) of the peak-flow qualification codes had changed; 1,938 (0.29 percent) peak-flow dates had changed; 18,599 (2.82 percent) of the peak-flow gage heights had changed; and 20,683 (3.14 percent) of the gage-height qualification codes had changed—most as a direct result of the peak-flow file data verification effort led by USGS personnel. The various types of changes are summarized and mapped in this report. In addition to this report, a corresponding USGS data release is provided to identify changes in peak flows at individual streamgages. The data release and the procedures to access the data release are described in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

This report is intended to synthesize the state of the scientific understanding of pallid sturgeon ecological requirements to provide recommendations for future science directions and context for Missouri River restoration and management decisions. Recruitment of pallid sturgeon has been low to non-existent throughout its range. Emerging understanding of the genetic structure of pallid sturgeon populations sets a broad framework for species and river management decisions, including decisions about managing the future genetic diversity of the species, but also decisions about where and what type of river restoration actions will be effective for subpopulations of this highly migratory species. Adult pallid sturgeon may migrate hundreds of kilometers (km) to spawn and their progeny may disperse even greater distances downstream as drifting free embryos. As a result of their complex life history pallid sturgeon naturally exploit a wide range of habitats during their life cycles. The construction of dams and reservoirs has fragmented habitats and may have shifted Missouri River subpopulations downstream. Research has not identified one primary biological or ecological constraint that appears to limit populations of the pallid sturgeon. With the present (2013) state of knowledge many life stages and life-stage transitions cannot be ruled out as contributing to recruitment failure. Biological opinions in 2000 (and amended in 2003) presented the dominant hypotheses for recruitment failure that existed at that time. Emphasis was on the role of the flow regime, specifically spring flow pulses (“spring rises”), to condition spawning substrate and cue reproductive aggregations and migrations, and on low flows and additional slow, shallow-water area to serve as rearing habitat for age-0 to juvenile pallid sturgeon. Studies on spawning habitat dynamics have documented that habitat patches selected for spawning by fish in the Lower Missouri River (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam to the confluence with the Mississippi River) are dominantly on outside, revetted bends in the deepest, fastest, and most turbulent water. Studies in more natural habitat on the Yellowstone River have documented spawning in convergent flow in the middle of the channel on discrete patches of gravel within a sand-dominated channel, an arrangement that may be more effective in attracting aggregations of reproductive fish compared to the nearly continuous revetment on the Lower Missouri River. Pallid sturgeon spawn in the spring and early summer during periods of increasing day length. Water temperature consistently exerts a threshold effect for spawning at 16–18 °C. In addition, the role of water temperature is indicated by pauses and reversals in upstream migrations that have been associated with cold weather fronts that create a transient decrease in water temperature. From 2005 to 2012 on the Lower Missouri River, no obvious relations between flow pulses and fish movements and spawning behaviors have been apparent. However, pallid sturgeon tracking at the Upper Missouri–Yellowstone confluence indicates that in most years, most telemetered pallid sturgeon migrate out of the Missouri River and into the Yellowstone River in the June–July timeframe in association with the spring pulse. This pattern was disrupted in 2011 when a high flow pulse with warm temperatures and high turbidity emanated from the Milk River, followed by record releases from Fort Peck Dam, and 36–39 percent of the telemetered population migrated up the Upper Missouri. This result supports the hypothesis that sufficiently large flow pulses may trigger migration and aggregation but it is not clear that functional pulses are within reservoir management authorities. Notably, a pallid sturgeon free embryo was captured on the Upper Missouri River in 2011 and another single, genetically confirmed embryo was captured on the Yellowstone River in 2012. Research on free-embryo drift has indicated the potential for hundreds of miles of downstream dispersal. Lack of distance to accommodate the extended downstream dispersal period of free embryos on the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers is the predominant hypothesis for recruitment failure in the upper basin. Long drift distances in the Lower Missouri River may be responsible for shifting Lower Missouri River sub-populations further into the Middle Mississippi River. Physical understanding of drift processes indicates that mean velocities could be slowed through decreased discharges or increased channel hydraulic radius (width and topographic diversity) to reduce free-embryo dispersal distances. In addition, the probability that free embryos are transported into and retained in channel-margin habitats is theoretically amenable to channel re-engineering that would increase cross-channel secondary currents in bends or channel expansions. Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about whether extended drift of Lower Missouri River larvae is responsible for recruitment failure. If drift distance is limiting, it is important to discern whether it would be advisable to retain larvae within the Missouri River, and where along the river restoration projects should be placed to optimize survival and growth of age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Longitudinal differences in female pallid sturgeon fecundity lend support to the hypothesis that recruitment failure may be due, in part, to fish having insufficient nutrition to produce the numbers of gametes needed for the population to grow, perhaps because of simultaneous declines in prey-fish populations and their habitats. Establishing a chain of causality from habitat decline, to prey-fish populations, to sturgeon diets, to sturgeon fecundity, and to pallid sturgeon population growth presents a considerable scientific challenge. In addition to the dominant hypotheses relating pallid sturgeon populations to changes in flow regime and channel morphology, other factors have been identified that might be sources of stress and contribute to recruitment failure. Among these are water quality and contaminants. Ambient water-quality monitoring on the Missouri River has demonstrated summer episodes when dissolved oxygen dips below 5 milligrams per liter, a threshold that may be stressful especially to age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Documented cases of intersex in shovelnose and pallid sturgeon indicate that agricultural and municipal sources of endocrine disrupting chemicals also may have a role in pallid sturgeon recruitment failure. Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Missouri River↗

Extraordinary phase separation and segregation in vent fluids from the southern East Pacific Rise

The discovery of Brandon vent on the southern East Pacific Rise is providing new insights into the controls on midocean ridge hydrothermal vent fluid chemistry. The physical conditions at the time ofsampling (287 bar and 405??C) place the Brandon fluids very close to the critical point of seawater (298 bar and 407??C). This permits in situ study of the effects of near criticalphenomena, which are interpreted to be the primary cause of enhanced transition metal transport in these fluids. Of the five orifices on Brandon sampled, three were venting fluids with less than seawater chlorinity, and two were venting fluids with greater than seawater chlorinity. The liquid phase orifices contain 1.6-1.9 times the chloride content of the vapors. Most other elements, excluding the gases, have this same ratio demonstrating the conservative nature of phase separation and the lack of subsequent water-rock interaction. The vapor and liquid phases vent at the same time from orifices within meters of each other on the Brandon structure. Variations in fluid compositions occur on a time scale of minutes. Our interpretation is that phase separation and segregation must be occurring 'real time' within the sulfide structure itself. Fluids from Brandon therefore provide an unique opportunity to understand in situ phase separation without the overprinting of continued water-rock interaction with the oceanic crust, as well as critical phenomena. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Comparative endocrinology in the 21st century

Hormones coordinate developmental, physiological, and behavioral processes within and between all living organisms. They orchestrate and shape organogenesis from early in development, regulate the acquisition, assimilation, and utilization of nutrients to support growth and metabolism, control gamete production and sexual behavior, mediate organismal responses to environmental change, and allow for communication of information between organisms. Genes that code for hormones; the enzymes that synthesize, metabolize, and transport hormones; and hormone receptors are important targets for natural selection, and variation in their expression and function is a major driving force for the evolution of morphology and life history. Hormones coordinate physiology and behavior of populations of organisms, and thus play key roles in determining the structure of populations, communities, and ecosystems. The field of endocrinology is concerned with the study of hormones and their actions. This field is rooted in the comparative study of hormones in diverse species, which has provided the foundation for the modern fields of evolutionary, environmental, and biomedical endocrinology. Comparative endocrinologists work at the cutting edge of the life sciences. They identify new hormones, hormone receptors and mechanisms of hormone action applicable to diverse species, including humans; study the impact of habitat destruction, pollution, and climatic change on populations of organisms; establish novel model systems for studying hormones and their functions; and develop new genetic strains and husbandry practices for efficient production of animal protein. While the model system approach has dominated biomedical research in recent years, and has provided extraordinary insight into many basic cellular and molecular processes, this approach is limited to investigating a small minority of organisms. Animals exhibit tremendous diversity in form and function, life-history strategies, and responses to the environment. A major challenge for life scientists in the 21st century is to understand how a changing environment impacts all life on earth. A full understanding of the capabilities of organisms to respond to environmental variation, and the resilience of organisms challenged by environmental changes and extremes, is necessary for understanding the impact of pollution and climatic change on the viability of populations. Comparative endocrinologists have a key role to play in these efforts.

Integrative and Comparative Biology↗

Clarification of the term “normal material” used for standard atomic weights (IUPAC Technical Report)

The standard atomic weights of the elements apply to normal materials. Since 1984, the Commission on Isotopic Abundances and Atomic Weights (Commission) has defined a normal material as: “The material is a reasonably possible source for this element or its compounds in commerce, for industry or science; the material is not itself studied for some extraordinary anomaly and its isotopic composition has not been modified significantly in a geologically brief period.” The term “a geologically brief period” in this definition is confusing, and confusion can be reduced by revising this definition to the following, which was accepted by the Commission on Isotopic Abundances and Atomic Weights at its meeting in Groningen, Netherlands in September 2017: “ Normal materials include all substances, except (1) those subjected to substantial deliberate, undisclosed, or inadvertent artificial isotopic modification, (2) extraterrestrial materials, and (3) isotopically anomalous specimens, such as natural nuclear reactor products from Oklo (Gabon) or other unique occurrences.”

Pure and Applied Chemistry↗

Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

The Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center (NPWRC) conducts integrated research to fulfill the Department of the Interior's responsibilities to the Nation's natural resources. Located on 600 acres along the James River Valley near Jamestown, North Dakota, the NPWRC develops and disseminates scientific information needed to understand, conserve, and wisely manage the Nation's biological resources. Research emphasis is primarily on midcontinental plant and animal species and ecosystems of the United States. During the center's 40-year history, its scientists have earned an international reputation for leadership and expertise on the biology of waterfowl and grassland birds, wetland ecology and classification, mammalian behavior and ecology, grassland ecosystems, and application of statistics and geographic information systems. To address current science challenges, NPWRC scientists collaborate with researchers from other U.S. Geological Survey centers and disciplines (Biology, Geography, Geology, and Water) and with biologists and managers in the Department of the Interior (DOI), other Federal agencies, State agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. Expanding upon its scientific expertise and leadership, the NPWRC is moving in new directions, including invasive plant species, restoration of native habitats, carbon sequestration and marketing, and ungulate management on DOI lands.

Fact Sheet↗

Identification of conservation and restoration priority areas in the Danube River based on the multi-functionality of river-floodplain systems

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and the multiple functions and services of river-floodplain systems, although, the selection of promising sites for restoration projects can be a demanding task. In the case of the Danube River in Europe, planning and implementation of restoration projects is substantially hampered by the complexity and heterogeneity of the environmental problems, lack of data and strong differences in socio-economic conditions as well as inconsistencies in legislation related to river management. We take a quantitative approach based on best-available data to assess biodiversity using selected species and three ecosystem services (flood regulation, crop pollination , and recreation), focused on the navigable main stem of the Danube River and its floodplains. We spatially prioritize river-floodplain segments for conservation and restoration based on (1) multi-functionality related to biodiversity and ecosystem services, (2) availability of remaining semi-natural areas and (3) reversibility as it relates to multiple human activities (e.g. flood protection, hydropowerand navigation). Our approach can thus serve as a strategic planning tool for the Danube and provide a method for similar analyses in other large river-floodplain systems.

Danube River↗

Use of blood clotting assays to assess potential anticoagulant rodenticide exposure and effects in free-ranging birds of prey

Non-target wildlife, particularly birds of prey, are widely exposed to and acutely poisoned by anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs). An unresolved issue surrounding such exposure, however, is the potential for sublethal effects. In particular, the consequences of AR exposure and resulting coagulopathy on health and survival of unintentionally exposed animals, which often encounter a multitude of anthropogenic stressors, are understudied. In a wildlife rehabilitation setting, AR intoxication may be masked by more obvious injuries related to collision with vehicles or electrocution, thereby obfuscating proximate from ultimate cause of mortality. An assessment of coagulation function of admitted wildlife may provide a means of identifying animals exhibiting sublethal coagulopathy, and ultimately ensuring provision of appropriate and swift treatment. In conjunction with routine diagnostics for injury and disease, we performed two blood clotting assays (prothrombin time, Russell's viper venom time) affected by vitamin K-dependent coagulopathy of samples from six species of live raptors admitted to a rehabilitation facility. We also measured clotting time in pre-fledgling barn owl chicks ( Tyto furcata ) from 10 nest sites in Lower Mainland Canada. Prolonged clotting time or failure to form a clot altogether was observed in 23.0% of 61 sampled raptors admitted to the rehabilitation facility. This is a biologically significant proportion of individuals given the fortuitous and likely biased nature by which raptors are found and admitted to rehabilitation facilities. In contrast, there was little evidence of coagulopathy in 19 pre-fledgling barn owl chicks. The utility of avian coagulation tests for diagnosing AR exposure is promising, yet there remains a need to establish species specific reference values and standardize assay methodologies among testing facilities.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Metal emissions from Kilauea, and a suggested revision of the estimated worldwide metal output by quiescent degassing of volcanoes

Measurements of a large suite of metals (Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn and several others) and sulfur at Kilauea volcano over an extended period of time has yielded a detailed record of the atmospheric injection of ordinarily-rare metals from this quiescently degassing volcano, representative of an important type. We have combined the Kilauea data with data of recent studies by others (emissions from volcanoes in the Indonesian arc; the large Laki eruption of two centuries ago; Etna: estimates of total volcanic emissions of sulfur) to form the basis for a new working estimate of the rate of worldwide injection of metals to the atmosphere by volcanoes. The new estimate is that volcanoes inject a substantially smaller mass of ordinarily-rare metals into the atmosphere than was stated in a widely cited previous estimate [J.O. Nriagu, A global assessment of natural sources of atmospheric trace metals, Nature 338 (1989) 47-49]. Our estimate, which is an upper limit, is an annual injection mass of about 10,000 tons of the metals considered, versus the earlier estimate of about 23,000 tons. Also, the proportions of the metals are substantially different in our new estimate.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

From coseismic offsets to fault-block mountains

In the Basin and Range extensional province of the western United States, coseismic offsets, under the influence of gravity, display predominantly subsidence of the basin side (fault hanging wall), with comparatively little or no uplift of the mountainside (fault footwall). A few decades later, geodetic measurements [GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)] show broad (∼100 km) aseismic uplift symmetrically spanning the fault zone. Finally, after millions of years and hundreds of fault offsets, the mountain blocks display large uplift and tilting over a breadth of only about 10 km. These sparse but robust observations pose a problem in that the coesismic uplifts of the footwall are small and inadequate to raise the mountain blocks. To address this paradox we develop finite-element models subjected to extensional and gravitational forces to study time-varying deformation associated with normal faulting. Stretching the model under gravity demonstrates that asymmetric slip via collapse of the hanging wall is a natural consequence of coseismic deformation. Focused flow in the upper mantle imposed by deformation of the lower crust localizes uplift, which is predicted to take place within one to two decades after each large earthquake. Thus, the best-preserved topographic signature of earthquakes is expected to occur early in the postseismic period.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Uranium disequilibrium in groundwater: An isotope dilution approach in hydrologic investigations

The distribution and environmental disequilibrium patterns of naturally occurring uranium isotopes (U 234 and U 238 ) in waters of the Floridan aquifer suggest that variations in the ratios of isotopic activity and concentrations can be used quantitatively to evaluate mixing proportions of waters from differing sources. Uranium is probably unique in its potential for this approach, which seems to have general usefulness in hydrologic investigations.

Florida↗

A preliminary report on the growth of the rock bass, Ambloplites rupestris (Rafinesque), in two lakes of northern Wisconsin

For several years the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey has been making a limnological study of lakes in the northern part of the State. Because of the fact that so much has been learned of the physical, chemical and biological conditions in these lakes, the region seems particularly favorable for a study of the growth rates of fishes in relation to environmental factors.

Transactions of the Wisconsin Academy of Sciences,↗