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At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Preparing for an uncertain future: Migrating shorebird response to past climatic fluctuations in the Prairie Potholes

The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more abundant in wet years than dry years. Generally, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, seasonality shifts, more extreme events, and changes to precipitation. The impacts to wetland habitats are uncertain. In the Prairie Potholes, earlier spring onset and warmer temperatures may advance drying of wetlands or, alternately, increased spring precipitation may produce abundant shallow‐water habitats. To look at the availability of habitats for migratory shorebirds under different climate regimes, we compared habitat selection between a historic wet year and a dry year using binomial random‐effects models to describe local and landscape patterns. We found that in the dry year shorebirds were distributed more northerly and among more permanent wetlands, whereas in the wet year shorebirds were distributed more southerly and among more temporary wetlands. However, landscape‐scale variation played a larger role in the dry year. At the local wetland scale, shorebirds selected similarly between years—for shallower wetlands and wetlands in croplands. Overall, while shorebirds were sensitive to local habitat conditions, they exhibited a degree of adaptive capacity to climate change impacts by their ability to shift on the landscape. This indicates an avenue through which management decisions can enhance climate change resilience for these species given an uncertain future—by preserving shallow‐water wetlands in croplands throughout the landscape.

Prairie Pothole Region↗

USGS2011

Multitemporal ALSM change detection, sediment delivery, and process mapping at an active earthflow

Remote mapping and measurement of surface processes at high spatial resolution is among the frontiers in Earth surface process research. Remote measurements that allow meter-scale mapping of landforms and quantification of landscape change can revolutionize the study of landscape evolution on human timescales. At Mill Gulch in northern California, USA, an active earthflow was surveyed in 2003 and 2007 by airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM), enabling meter-scale quantification of landscape change. We calculate four-year volumetric flux from the earthflow and compare it to long-term catchment average erosion rates from cosmogenic radionuclide inventories from adjacent watersheds. We also present detailed maps of changing features on the earthflow, from which we can derive velocity estimates and infer dominant process. These measurements rely on proper digital elevation model (DEM) generation and a simple surface-matching technique to align the multitemporal data in a manner that eliminates systematic error in either dataset. The mean surface elevation of the earthflow and an opposite slope that was directly influenced by the earthflow decreased 14 ± 1 mm/yr from 2003 to 2007. By making the conservative assumption that these features were the dominant contributor of sediment flux from the entire Mill Gulch drainage basin during this time interval, we calculate a minimum catchment-averaged erosion rate of 0·30 ± 0·02 mm/yr. Analysis of beryllium-10 ( 10 Be) concentrations in fluvial sand from nearby Russian Gulch and the South Fork Gualala River provide catchment averaged erosion rates of 0·21 ± 0·04 and 0·23 ± 0·03 mm/yr respectively. From translated landscape features, we can infer surface velocities ranging from 0·5 m/yr in the wide upper ‘source’ portion of the flow to 5 m/yr in the narrow middle ‘transport’ portion of the flow. This study re-affirms the importance of mass wasting processes in the sediment budgets of uplifting weak lithologies.

California↗

USGS2017

The effect of lithology on valley width, terrace distribution, and coarse sediment provenance in a tectonically stable catchment with flat-lying stratigraphy

How rock resistance or erodibility affects fluvial landforms and processes is an outstanding question in geomorphology that has recently garnered attention owing to the recognition that the erosion rates of bedrock channels largely set the pace of landscape evolution. In this work, we evaluate valley width, terrace distribution, and sediment provenance in terms of reach scale variation in lithology in the study reach and discuss the implications for landscape evolution in a catchment with relatively flat2 lying stratigraphy and very little uplift. A reach of the 21 Buffalo National River in Arkansas was partitioned into lithologic reaches and the mechanical and chemical resistance of the main lithologies making up the catchment was measured. Valley width and the spatial distribution of terraces were compared among the different lithologic reaches. The surface grain size and provenance of coarse (2-90 mm) sediment of both modern gravel bars and older terrace deposits were measured and defined. The results demonstrate a strong impact of lithology upon valley width, terrace distribution, and coarse sediment provenance and therefore, upon landscape evolution processes. Channel down-cutting through different lithologies creates variable patterns of resistance across catchments and continents. Particularly in post-tectonic and nontectonic landscapes, the variation in resistance that arises from the exhumation of different rocks in channel longitudinal profiles can impact local base levels, initiating responses that can be propagated through channel networks. The rate at which that response is transmitted through channels is potentially amplified and/or mitigated by differences between the resistance of channel beds and sediment loads. In the study 36 reach, variation in lithologic resistance influences the prevalence of lateral and vertical 37 processes, thus producing a spatial pattern of terraces that reflects rock type rather than 38 climate, regional base level change, or hydrologic variability.

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2025

Assessing the topographic distribution of legacy soil phosphorus in agricultural fields of the Delmarva Peninsula, Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Phosphorus (P) management remains a challenge in agricultural watersheds. The Choptank River Conservation Effects Assessment Project watershed, located in Maryland and Delaware and draining to the Chesapeake Bay, contains legacy soil P from historical dairy and poultry manure applications. These practices elevated soil P beyond crop needs, contributing to persistent P export to aquatic ecosystems. We assessed spatial P distribution and analyzed GIS (Geographic Information Systems)-derived landscape features driving legacy P movement on a farm (47 ha). We hypothesized that P accumulates in drained lowlands and depressional areas due to gravity-driven processes that accelerate P-enriched water to receiving waters via overland flow. In collaboration with the US Department of Agriculture Legacy P project, we collected 105 soil samples (0- to 5-cm and 5- to 15-cm depths) and 14 ditch sediment samples across five topographic openness classes from a farm with >100 years of dairy manure application. Average Mehlich-III P concentrations were 218 and 179 mg kg −1 at 0- to 5-cm and 5- to 15-cm depths, respectively, with legacy areas defined by P content > 100 mg kg −1 . Soil P and clay particle size were positively correlated ( r = 0.42, p < 0.05), increased as landscape openness decreased, and were negatively correlated with topographic openness (ranging from −0.2 to −0.4, p < 0.05), indicating accumulation of P and clay in low-lying areas. These patterns suggest that historical field-level managements have primarily shaped P distribution, while hydrologic and landscape properties further influence its redistribution via transport pathways and drainage. These findings support the development of landscape models to map critical source areas in low-relief watersheds and guide targeted mitigation in high-risk P export zones.

Maryland↗

USGS2018

Effects of early-successional shrubland management on breeding wood thrush populations

In forested landscapes, creation of habitat for early-successional shrubland birds is controversial because of perceived conflicts with the conservation of mature-forest birds. Nonetheless, many mature-forest birds, especially fledglings, readily use early-successional stands during the post-breeding period. This suggests that for mature-forest birds, creating habitat for early-successional birds could involve a tradeoff: reduced abundance and nest survival due to the loss of nesting habitat versus enhanced fledgling survival in early-successional stands. Our research addressed the effects of the creation of early-successional habitat for shrubland birds on wood thrushes ( Hylocichla mustelina ) in western Massachusetts, USA. We compared wood thrush abundance, nest success, fecundity, and post-fledging survival in landscapes with high (∼20%) or low (∼1%) cover of early-successional stands suitable for shrubland birds. We found no differences in nest success, fecundity, and post-fledging survival between the 2 types of landscapes. Abundance of breeders, however, was significantly greater on the sites with high cover of early-successional habitat. We conclude that in forested landscapes, creation of early-successional habitat at levels recommended for the conservation of shrubland birds is compatible with viable wood thrush populations. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Weather, habitat area, connectivity, and number of patches influence breeding ecology of ring-necked pheasants

Understanding habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization for species of conservation and management concern. Information on habitat selection is particularly important for grassland bird species whose populations have suffered steep declines over the last few decades. We assessed ring-necked pheasants' ( Phasianus colchicus ) habitat selection in a dynamic agricultural landscape. The population dynamics of pheasants are partially related to nest survival, which may be influenced by the quality of nesting habitat. Consequently, knowledge of vegetation composition and structural characteristics associated with the selection and survival of nests would help inform management decisions to improve nest success. We monitored nests from 103 radio-collared pheasants inhabiting an agricultural landscape in South Dakota, USA, from 2017–2019 to determine the effect of landscape composition and configuration on nest-site selection and nest survival. We explored nesting behavior at 2 orders of selection: resource selection within the home range (third order) and selection of specific resource items from a resource patch (fourth order). Proportion of row crop and connectivity of row crop was negatively associated with nest-site selection at the third order. At the fourth order, pheasants tended to select for taller vegetation and greater percent grass cover than at paired random sites. Pheasants also selected areas with more grasslands. A 1% increase in grass cover and proportion of grassland increased the odds of nest-site selection by 1% and 2%, respectively. Connectivity of row crop patches was negatively associated with daily nest survival. We also evaluated factors affecting pheasant brood-site selection. A 1-unit increase in grass cover and Hemiptera biomass increased the odds of brood-site selection by 4%. The probability of brood-site selection also increased with fewer row crop patches. Weather played a crucial role in driving nest survival. The consideration of local weather trends and regional variation in habitat can inform habitat management for pheasants. Pheasant populations may benefit from research that identifies thermal landscapes and land management techniques that promote cooler microclimates for nesting and brood-rearing activities.

South Dakota↗

USGS2009

Predicting the natural flow regime: Models for assessing hydrological alteration in streams

Understanding the extent to which natural streamflow characteristics have been altered is an important consideration for ecological assessments of streams. Assessing hydrologic condition requires that we quantify the attributes of the flow regime that would be expected in the absence of anthropogenic modifications. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether selected streamflow characteristics could be predicted at regional and national scales using geospatial data. Long-term, gaged river basins distributed throughout the contiguous US that had streamflow characteristics representing least disturbed or near pristine conditions were identified. Thirteen metrics of the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing and rate of change of streamflow were calculated using a 20-50 year period of record for each site. We used random forests (RF), a robust statistical modelling approach, to develop models that predicted the value for each streamflow metric using natural watershed characteristics. We compared the performance (i.e. bias and precision) of national- and regional-scale predictive models to that of models based on landscape classifications, including major river basins, ecoregions and hydrologic landscape regions (HLR). For all hydrologic metrics, landscape stratification models produced estimates that were less biased and more precise than a null model that accounted for no natural variability. Predictive models at the national and regional scale performed equally well, and substantially improved predictions of all hydrologic metrics relative to landscape stratification models. Prediction error rates ranged from 15 to 40%, but were 25% for most metrics. We selected three gaged, non-reference sites to illustrate how predictive models could be used to assess hydrologic condition. These examples show how the models accurately estimate predisturbance conditions and are sensitive to changes in streamflow variability associated with long-term land-use change. We also demonstrate how the models can be applied to predict expected natural flow characteristics at ungaged sites. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2026

Regional conservation planning tool: A spreadsheet model to support spatial prioritization and resource allocation decisions

Prioritization is a central component of natural resource management because conservation needs routinely exceed available resources. Waterfowl and wetland conservation programs in North America are at the forefront of landscape-scale prioritization and transboundary management decisions due to the migratory nature of ducks, geese, and swans. The growing availability of geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial technologies has accelerated the development of multi-objective landscape prioritization models, including applications of structured decision making and multi-criteria decision analysis to spatial planning for waterfowl and wetlands at the continental scale. However, regional managers and conservationists could benefit from flexibility in downscaling continental tools, selecting objectives, and assigning weights for rapid production of spatial prioritization models at smaller spatial scales without extensive computer coding or GIS analysis. We developed a spatial value model that prioritizes landscapes at sub-continental scales (e.g., states and provinces, bird conservation regions, etc.) and provides flexibility for users to select waterfowl conservation objectives of interest and weights. Our model can be used for direct downscaling of an existing continental geospatial model or further customized with region-specific geospatial data. We illustrate how regional prioritization can vary with the spatial scale selected by the user. The spatial value modeling framework and the downscaling tool presented here could increase the use of multi-criteria decision analysis and linear value modeling in spatial landscape prioritization, while also providing flexibility for selecting scales, objectives, and weights. Our spreadsheet tool was developed specifically for use by regional biologists, conservationists, and managers and does not require knowledge of GIS software (although results can be exported from the spreadsheet for spatial analysis using GIS). Together, the model outputs and the accompanying spreadsheet tool provide a bridge between continental waterfowl conservation and regional implementation, enabling rapid, stakeholder-driven, value-explicit prioritization.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2019

Historical range and variation (HRV)

Fire-prone landscapes are experiencing rapid and potentially persistent changes as the result of complex and potentially novel interactions of anthropogenic climate changes, shifting fire regimes, exotic plant, insect, and pathogen invasions, and industrial, agricultural, and urban development. Are these landscapes fully departed from historical conditions? Should they be managed as novel environments or as landscapes in transition? Historical range and variation is a benchmark representation of the conditions that describe fully functional, healthy ecosystems or landscapes. The HRV can provide an ecological reference against which contemporary and future conditions can be evaluated to determine status, trend, and magnitude of departure. This text describes the concepts of HRV, methods for developing HRV data sets, and application of HRV for fire management. We discuss the limitations of HRV, and its use under future climates that are no longer representative of historical conditions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Topographic, climatic, and age controls on the reworking of volcanic debris avalanche deposits

Volcanic debris avalanches have deposited as much as 1000 km 3 of largely unconsolidated material on landscapes and remodeled existing drainage networks. The landscape disturbances created by these events pose severe, cascading downstream sedimentation hazards that can require long-term societal management, as demonstrated by decades of observations and ongoing interventions after the deposition of the 1980 debris avalanche of Mount St. Helens (United States). There, post-emplacement sediment yields caused by deposit erosion remain several times above estimated background yield and lakes impounded by the deposit still pose threats of downstream flooding. Despite the length and quality of measurements of the geomorphic evolution and consequent sediment release at Mount St. Helens, the long-term trajectory of drainage network evolution across, and the associated sediment release from, large volcanic debris avalanches remains uncertain. Observations and modeling at Mount St. Helens, however, indicate channel instability can persist many decades and may persist for centuries to millennia. We examined potential influences on the erosion and preservation of volcanic debris avalanche deposits (VDADs) by mapping valley networks developed on 89 VDADs selected from volcanic arcs across the world and spanning a variety of topographic settings and climate regimes. Using the best available topographic data (1 m lidar to 30 m radar-derived data depending on location) and aerial imagery, we estimated the areas of deposits that have been reworked relative to initial deposit footprints as a proxy for post-emplacement erosion. We found that a primary influence on reworking is the topographic confinement of the VDAD: confined, valley-filling deposits are systematically more reworked than unconfined deposits. There is no apparent relationship between deposit age and reworking for valley-filling deposits, indicating that drainage networks on deposits in confined topographic settings like at Mount St. Helens reform rapidly after emplacement. In contrast, our data indicate that the reworking of unconfined deposits has a monotonic positive relationship with age. This observation agrees with a conceptual model of channel formation at Mount Taranaki (New Zealand), which posits that an unconfined VDAD created a topographic high that initially (e.g., 2–8 ky for the Pungarehu formation at Taranaki) diverted erosion to the deposit margins. We found only a weak to moderate relationship between reworking and modern precipitation regimes, which may reflect differences between modern and paleo-precipitation conditions at many of our study sites. We also found no correlation between the size (surface area or volume) of deposits and the degree of reworking. The work presented here implies that downstream cascading sediment hazards from landscape-resetting processes like VDADs (such as thick, extensive pyroclastic flow deposits) depend on the relief and organization of the surrounding landscape.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Simulated increases in fire activity reinforce shrub conversion in a southwestern US forest

Fire exclusion in historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern United States has altered forest structure and increased the probability of high-severity fire. Warmer and drier conditions, coupled with dispersal distance limitations, are impeding tree seedling establishment and survival following high-severity fire. High-severity patches are commonly dominated by non-forest vegetation, a state that can be reinforced by subsequent fire events. We sought to determine the influence of fire probability on post-fire vegetation development in a severely burned landscape in New Mexico, USA. We used LANDIS-II to simulate three fire probability scenarios—historical fire probability, contemporary fire probability, and the mean of the two—with contemporary climate. As fire probability increased, the mean size of the largest fires and the mean landscape fire severity increased. These changes in fire characteristics resulted in decreased total aboveground biomass and photosynthetic capacity on the landscape after 50 years. Additionally, the distribution of individual species biomass shifted, with early successional species, especially those that resprout after fire, increasing as a fraction of total biomass with increasing fire occurrence. Counter to empirical data, our simulations did not show a conifer establishment limitation, suggesting a source of uncertainty that will need to be addressed to improve projections of forest dynamics under future climate. Even without limited conifer regeneration, continued increases in fire frequency are likely to favor resprouting species and result in a loss of forest biomass and ecosystem productivity in this southwestern forest landscape.

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

Agricultural disturbance response models for invertebrate and algal metrics from streams at two spatial scales within the U.S.

As part of the USGS study of nutrient enrichment of streams in agricultural regions throughout the United States, about 30 sites within each of eight study areas were selected to capture a gradient of nutrient conditions. The objective was to develop watershed disturbance predictive models for macroinvertebrate and algal metrics at national and three regional landscape scales to obtain a better understanding of important explanatory variables. Explanatory variables in models were generated from landscape data, habitat, and chemistry. Instream nutrient concentration and variables assessing the amount of disturbance to the riparian zone (e.g., percent row crops or percent agriculture) were selected as most important explanatory variable in almost all boosted regression tree models regardless of landscape scale or assemblage. Frequently, TN and TP concentration and riparian agricultural land use variables showed a threshold type response at relatively low values to biotic metrics modeled. Some measure of habitat condition was also commonly selected in the final invertebrate models, though the variable(s) varied across regions. Results suggest national models tended to account for more general landscape/climate differences, while regional models incorporated both broad landscape scale and more specific local-scale variables.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2023

Invasive Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans occurrence, habitat drivers, and spatial overlap with native fishes in Wyoming, USA

A central focus of modern fisheries management is eradicating invaders that threaten imperiled native fishes. However, vast landscapes and limited funding and personnel resources demand a prioritized approach to management. Brook Stickleback Culaea inconstans (Kirtland, 1840) is an aquatic invasive species in Wyoming, USA, that may pose a risk to native biodiversity. Our aim was to evaluate Brook Stickleback’s invasive potential in the North Platte River drainage. We updated the current distribution of Brook Stickleback, evaluated for possible range expansion, and determined landscape-level habitat drivers and occurrence potential for streams across the North Platte River drainage. Additionally, we examined Brook Stickleback’s spatial overlap with native nongame fishes. At the landscape scale, Brook Stickleback preferred low-gradient streams with moderate disturbance risk. Though we did not find evidence of current Brook Stickleback range expansion 61% of streams in the drainage have landscape-level environmental characteristics that are likely suitable for Brook Stickleback, creating potential for future expansion. Brook Stickleback overlapped spatially with 13 native nongame species, though spatial overlap was less common than expected for species with similar habitat preferences. Our work serves as a case study of the factors to consider when assessing a species’ invasive potential in a previously unstudied region.

Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) roost site-selection criteria and locations east of the Appalachian Mountains, U.S.A.

The monarch butterfly is a flagship species and pollinator whose populations have declined by 85% in the recent two decades. Their largest population overwinters in Mexico, then disperses across eastern North America during March to August. During September-December, they return south using two flyways, one that spans the central United States and another that follows the Atlantic coast. Migrating monarchs fly diurnally and roost in groups nocturnally. We sought to determine the criteria this species uses to select roost sites, and the landscape context where those sites are found. We developed species distribution models of the landscape context of Atlantic flyway roost sites via citizen scientist observations and environmental variables that affect monarchs in the adult stage prior to migration, using two algorithms (Maximum Entropy and Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Prediction). We developed two model validation methods: a citizen scientist smartphone application and peer-informed comparisons with aerial imagery. Proximity to surface water, elevation, and vegetative cover were the most important criteria for monarch roost site selection. Our model predicted 2.6 million ha (2.9% of the study area) of suitable roosting habitat in the Atlantic flyway, with the greatest availability along the Atlantic coastal plain and Appalachian Mountain ridges. Conservation of this species is difficult, as monarchs range over both large areas and various habitat types, and most current monarch research and conservation efforts are focused on the breeding and overwintering periods. These models can serve to help prioritize surveys of roosting sites and conservation efforts during the monarchs’ fall migration.

Journal of Insect Behavior↗

USGS2020

Architecture of remnant trees influences native woody plant recruitment in abandoned Hawaiian pastures

Abandoned tropical pastures offer opportunities for passive and active restoration of native forest communities. Tree architecture of remnant canopy trees may be one important factor that can facilitate native plant recruitment in abandoned pastures but has largely been overlooked. Here, we evaluated patterns of native woody plant recruitment under remnant trees in abandoned pastures on Hawai’i Island and how these might be related to both tree architectural features and landscape variables. We measured native woody stems (excluding sprouts of the tree itself) in a 5 m radius around the base of each tree and modeled total basal area of native stems as a function of tree architectural characteristics. Recruitment was positively correlated with tree height as well as horizontal woody area below 1 m (tree structure that occurred below 1 m and was < 45° angle from the ground) around the base of trees. Tall trees likely attract more avian seed dispersers due to their higher visibility on the landscape and increased crown volume. Horizontal woody area likely provides establishment microsites that are above the pasture grass layer, similar to how dead or decaying logs act as nurse substrates. Unlike previous studies, we found little evidence that landscape variables such as distance to the intact forest or nearest canopy neighbor influenced understory recruitment. Tree architectural characteristics can be important predictors of native plant recruitment in abandoned tropical pastures and should be considered in addition to local and landscape-level variables.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once these issues are addressed, we contend that modeling efforts will better inform and quantify ecosystem services provided by wetlands to meet needs of waterbird conservation and broader societal interests such as flood control and water quality.

Wetlands↗

USGS2016

Spatially explicit feedbacks between seagrass meadow structure, sediment and light: Habitat suitability for seagrass growth

In shallow coastal bays where nutrient loading and riverine inputs are low, turbidity, and the consequent light environment are controlled by resuspension of bed sediments due to wind-waves and tidal currents. High sediment resuspension and low light environments can limit benthic primary productivity; however, both currents and waves are affected by the presence of benthic plants such as seagrass. This feedback between the presence of benthic primary producers such as seagrass and the consequent light environment has been predicted to induce bistable dynamics locally. However, these vegetated areas influence a larger area than they footprint, including a barren adjacent downstream area which exhibits reduced shear stresses. Here we explore through modeling how the patchy structure of seagrass meadows on a landscape may affect sediment resuspension and the consequent light environment due to the presence of this sheltered region. Heterogeneous vegetation covers comprising a mosaic of randomly distributed patches were generated to investigate the effect of patch modified hydrodynamics. Actual cover of vegetation on the landscape was used to facilitate comparisons across landscape realizations. Hourly wave and current shear stresses on the landscape along with suspended sediment concentration and light attenuation characteristics were then calculated and spatially averaged to examine how actual cover and mean water depth affect the bulk sediment and light environment. The results indicate that an effective cover, which incorporates the sheltering area, has important controls on the distributions of shear stress, suspended sediment, light environment, and consequent seagrass habitat suitability. Interestingly, an optimal habitat occurs within a depth range where, if actual cover is reduced past some threshold, the bulk light environment would no longer favor seagrass growth.

Advances in Water Resources↗

USGS2022

Connecting regional-scale tree distribution models with seed dispersal kernels

Regional scale forest distribution models are important tools for biogeography and understanding the structure of forest communities in space. These models take climate and geographic variables as input and are therefore helpful for long-term decision support and climate adaptation planning. Generally, local processes of tree germination and seedling survival are resolved probabilistically with explanatory variables such as elevation, latitude, exposure, soil type, moisture availability, climate and weather inputs and `trained’ using landscape and regional presence-absence data and machine learning techniques. How seeds are distributed in these models, that is, determining the dispersal kernel, is far more problematic. The challenge is that variables conditioning vertebrate seed dispersal (motility and probability of utilization or caching in response to cover type) are not represented in large scale distribution models, and in fact vary on scales (10-100 meters) that are much smaller than the smallest pixel size for the distribution model (1-10 kilometers). We present a homogenized seed digestion kernel (HSDK) which incorporates this scale separation. Homogenization naturally links highly variable small-scale processes (like seed foraging and caching by birds and rodents) with large scale effects (like dispersal of seeds over tens of kilometers). We develop a homogenization strategy to predict seed dispersal on landscape scales, analytically linking small-scale variables (landscape fraction cover by tree type, gut residence times and cover type utilization by frugivorous birds) with large scale behaviors. Closed form approximations are developed in two dimensions for two limiting cases of seed handling behavior, and the approach is illustrated using landscape data and piñon-pine dispersal in a 630,000 square kilometer region in the southwestern US.

Applied Mathematics and Computation↗