SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Hydrology Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Wildland fire ash: Production, composition and eco-hydro-geomorphic effects

Fire transforms fuels (i.e. biomass, necromass, soil organic matter) into materials with different chemical and physical properties. One of these materials is ash, which is the particulate residue remaining or deposited on the ground that consists of mineral materials and charred organic components. The quantity and characteristics of ash produced during a wildland fire depend mainly on (1) the total burned fuel (i.e. fuel load), (2) fuel type and (3) its combustion completeness. For a given fuel load and type, a higher combustion completeness will reduce the ash organic carbon content, increasing the relative mineral content, and hence reducing total mass of ash produced. The homogeneity and thickness of the ash layer can vary substantially in space and time and reported average thicknesses range from close to 0 to 50 mm. Ash is a highly mobile material that, after its deposition, may be incorporated into the soil profile, redistributed or removed from a burned site within days or weeks by wind and water erosion to surface depressions, footslopes, streams, lakes, reservoirs and, potentially, into marine deposits. Research on the composition, properties and effects of ash on the burned ecosystem has been conducted on material collected in the field after wildland and prescribed fires as well as on material produced in the laboratory. At low combustion completeness (typically T < 450 °C), ash is organic-rich, with organic carbon as the main component. At high combustion completeness (T > 450 °C), most organic carbon is volatized and the remaining mineral ash has elevated pH when in solution. It is composed mainly of calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, silicon and phosphorous in the form of inorganic carbonates, whereas at T > 580 °C the most common forms are oxides. Ash produced under lower combustion completeness is usually darker, coarser, and less dense and has a higher saturated hydraulic conductivity than ash with higher combustion completeness, although physical reactions with CO 2 and when moistened produce further changes in ash characteristics. As a new material present after a wildland fire, ash can have profound effects on ecosystems. It affects biogeochemical cycles, including the C cycle, not only within the burned area, but also globally. Ash incorporated into the soil increases temporarily soil pH and nutrient pools and changes physical properties such as albedo, soil texture and hydraulic properties including water repellency. Ash modifies soil hydrologic behavior by creating a two-layer system: the soil and the ash layer, which can function in different ways depending on (1) ash depth and type, (2) soil type and (3) rainfall characteristics. Key parameters are the ash's water holding capacity, hydraulic conductivity and its potential to clog soil pores. Runoff from burned areas carries soluble nutrients contained in ash, which can lead to problems for potable water supplies. Ash deposition also stimulates soil microbial activity and vegetation growth. Further work is needed to (1) standardize methods for investigating ash and its effects on the ecosystem, (2) characterize ash properties for specific ecosystems and wildland fire types, (3) determine the effects of ash on human and ecosystem health, especially when transported by wind or water, (4) investigate ash's controls on water and soil losses at slope and catchment scales, (5) examine its role in the C cycle, and (6) study its redistribution and fate in the environment.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2014

Mississippi Valley-type lead-zinc deposits through geological time: Implications from recent age-dating research

Remarkable advances in age dating Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) lead-zinc deposits provide a new opportunity to understand how and where these deposits form in the Earth's crust. These dates are summarized and examined in a framework of global tectonics, paleogeography, fluid migration, and paleoclimate. Nineteen districts have been dated by paleomagnetic and/or radiometric methods. Of the districts that have both paleomagnetic and radiometric dates, only the Pine Point and East Tennessee districts have significant disagreements. This broad agreement between paleomagnetic and radiometric dates provides added confidence in the dating techniques used. The new dates confirm the direct connection between the genesis of MVT lead-zinc ores with global-scale tectonic events. The dates show that MVT deposits formed mainly during large contractional tectonic events at restricted times in the history of the Earth. Only the deposits in the Lennard Shelf of Australia and Nanisivik in Canada have dates that correspond to extensional tectonic events. The most important period for MVT genesis was the Devonian to Permian time, which corresponds to a series of intense tectonic events during the assimilation of Pangea. The second most important period for MVT genesis was Cretaceous to Tertiary time when microplate assimilation affected the western margin of North America and Africa-Eurasia. There is a notable paucity of MVT lead-zinc ore formation following the breakup of Rodinia and Pangea. Of the five MVT deposits hosted in Proterozoic rocks, only the Nanisivik deposit has been dated as Proterozoic. The contrast in abundance between SEDEX and MVT lead-zinc deposits in the Proterozoic questions the frequently suggested notion that the two types of ores share similar genetic paths. The ages of MVT deposits, when viewed with respect to the orogenic cycle in the adjacent orogen suggest that no single hydrologic model can be universally applied to the migration of the ore fluids. However, topographically driven models best explain most MVT districts. The migration of MVT ore fluids is not a natural consequence of basin evolution; rather, MVT districts formed mainly where platform carbonates had some hydrological connection to orogenic belts. There may be a connection between paleoclimate and the formation of some MVT deposits. This possible relationship is suggested by the dominance of evaporated seawater in fluid inclusions in MVT ores, by hydrological considerations that include the need for multiple-basin volumes of ore fluid to form most MVT districts, and the need for adequate precipitation to provide sufficient topographic head for topographically-driven fluid migration. Paleoclimatic conditions that lead to formation of evaporite conditions but yet have adequate precipitation to form large hydrological systems are most commonly present in low latitudes. For the MVT deposits and districts that have been dated, more than 75% of the combined metal produced are from deposits that have dates that correspond to assembly of Pangea in Devonian through Permian time. The exceptional endowment of Pangea and especially, North America with MVT lead-zinc deposits may be explained by the following: (1) Laurentia, which formed the core of North America, stayed in low latitudes during the Paleozoic, which allowed the development of vast carbonate platforms; (2) intense orogenic activity during the assembly of Pangea created ground preparation for many MVT districts through far-field deformation of the craton; (3) uplifted orogenic belts along Pangean suture zones established large-scale migration of basin fluids; and (4) the location of Pangea in low latitudes with paleoclimates with high evaporation rates led to the formation of brines by the evaporation of seawater and infiltration of these brines into deep basin aquifers during Pangean orogenic events.

Mineralium Deposita↗

USGS2022

Quantifying flow and nonflow management impacts on an endangered fish by integrating data, research, and expert opinion

Managers charged with recovering endangered species in regulated river segments often have limited flexibility to alter flow regimes and want estimates of the expected population benefits associated with both flow and nonflow management actions. Disentangling impacts on different life stages from concurrently applied actions is essential for determining the effectiveness of each action, but difficult without models that integrate multiple information sources. Here, we develop and fit an integrated population model for endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ) in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico. We integrate catch per unit effort monitoring data collected during 2002–2018 with population estimates, data collected during rescue of minnow from drying pools, habitat availability estimates, laboratory results, releases of hatchery reared minnow, and expert opinion. We use expert elicitation to develop a larval carrying capacity index as an informed proxy for the complex interactions among flow, habitat, and life history in this species. We evaluate the model using out-of-sample forecasts of 2019 and 2020, develop an algorithm to identify supplemental water releases that maximize benefits to the minnow, and quantify the effectiveness of various actions. Experts generally agreed on the duration and timing of flow requirements and disagreed regarding the importance of different magnitudes. The integrated model with the larval carrying capacity index outperformed two alternative models in forecasting catch in 2019 and 2020. The model estimates that minnow abundance varied by more than three orders of magnitude between 2002 and 2018 and that in a few years recruitment was limited by spawner abundance. Evaluation of the expected benefits of flow and nonflow management actions to fall population abundance across different years suggests that efficient addition of water to the base hydrograph is the most effective action in most, but not all years. Many actions are effective only under certain hydrologic and population conditions and the effectiveness of different actions varies in different sections of the study area. Widespread water extraction and river regulation combined with periodic drought and ongoing climate change may necessitate creative management of federally listed fish species in arid systems informed by thorough analyses of management effectiveness.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2011

A comparison of avian communities and habitat characteristics in floodplain forests associated with valley plugs and unchannelized streams

Channelization of streams associated with floodplain forested wetlands has occurred extensively throughout the world and specifically in the southeastern United States. Channelization of fluvial systems alters the hydrologic and sedimentation processes that sustain these systems. In western Tennessee, channelization and past land-use practices have caused drastic geomorphic and hydrologic changes, resulting in altered habitat conditions that may affect avian communities. The objective of this study was to determine if there were differences in avian communities utilizing floodplain forests along unchannelized streams compared to channelized streams with valley plugs, areas where sediment has completely filled the channel. During point count surveys, 58 bird species were observed at unchannelized sites and 60 species were observed at valley plug sites. Species associated with baldcypress-tupelo ( Taxodium-Nyssa ) swamps (e.g. Great Egret ( Ardea albus ) and Black-crowned Night Heron ( Nycticorax nycticorax )) and mature hardwood forests with open midstories (e.g. Eastern Wood-Pewee ( Contopus virens ), Yellow-throated Vireo ( Vireo flavifrons ), Cerulean Warbler ( Dendroica cerulea ) and Scarlet Tanager ( Piranga olivacea )) were either only found at unchannelized sites or were more abundant at unchannelized sites. Conversely, species associated with open and early successional habitats (e.g. Tree Swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ), Northern Mockingbird ( Mimus polyglottos ) and Blue Grosbeak ( Passerina caerulea )) were either only found at valley plug sites or were more abundant at valley plug sites. Results of habitat modelling suggest that the habitat characteristics of floodplain forests at unchannelized sites are more suitable for Neotropical migrant bird species of conservation concern in the region than at valley plug sites. This study, in combination with previous research, demonstrates the ecological impacts of valley plugs span across abiotic and biotic processes and tropic levels.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2008

The Role of Eolian Sediment in the Preservation of Archeologic Sites Along the Colorado River Corridor in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona

Since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, the natural hydrologic and sedimentary systems along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon reach have changed substantially (see, for example, Andrews, 1986; Johnson and Carothers, 1987; Webb and others, 1999b; Rubin and others, 2002; Topping and others, 2003; Wright and others, 2005; Hazel and others, 2006b). The dam has reduced the fluvial sediment supply at the upstream boundary of Grand Canyon National Park by about 95 percent. Regulation of river discharge by dam operations has important implications for the storage and redistribution of sediment in the Colorado River corridor. In the absence of floods, sediment is not deposited at elevations that regularly received sediment before dam closure. Riparian vegetation has colonized areas at lower elevations than in predam time when annual floods removed young vegetation (Turner and Karpiscak, 1980). Together, these factors have caused a systemwide decrease in the size and number of subaerially exposed fluvial sand deposits since the 1960s, punctuated by episodic aggradation during the exceptional high-flow intervals in 1983-84, 1996, and 2004 and by sediment input from occasional tributary floods (Beus and others, 1985; Schmidt and Graf, 1987; Kearsley and others, 1994; Hazel and others, 1999; Schmidt and others, 2004; Wright and others, 2005). When the Bureau of Reclamation sponsored the creation of the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies (GCES) research initiative in 1982, research objectives included physical and biologic resources, whereas the effects of dam operations on cultural resources were not addressed (Fairley and others, 1994; Fairley, 2003). In the early 1980s, it was widely believed that because few archeologic sites were preserved within the river's annual-flood zone, cultural features would not be greatly affected by dam operations. Recent studies, however, indicate that alterations in the flow and sediment load of the Colorado River by Glen Canyon Dam operations may affect archeologic sites within the river corridor, even above the annual flood limit (Hereford and others, 1993, Yeatts, 1996, 1997; Thompson and Potochnik, 2000; Draut and others, 2005). (The annual-flood zone is defined here by the mean annual predam flood of 2,410 m3/s; the 'predam flood limit', the highest elevation at which fluvial deposits are present locally, was approximately equivalent to a rare, major flood of 8,500 m3/s; Topping and others, 2003.) Of about 500 archeologic sites documented between Glen Canyon Dam and Separation Canyon (255 river miles), more than 330 are considered to be within the area of potential effect (APE) of dam operations (Fairley and others, 1994; Neal and others, 2000; Fairley, 2005). The APE was designated by the National Park Service (NPS) to include the area below the peak stage of the 1884 flood; though previously believed to have reached 8,490 m3/s, this flood was shown by Topping and others (2003) to have peaked at 5,940 m3/s. Archeologic research and monitoring in Grand Canyon National Park focus increasingly on the potential effects of Glen Canyon Dam operations on the landscape in which these sites exist. Many archeologic sites in or on sedimentary deposits are being eroded, owing to eolian deflation and gully incision (Leap and others, 2000; Neal and others, 2000; Fairley, 2003, 2005). Hereford and others (1993) first suggested that gully incision of sedimentary deposits, and the base level to which small drainage systems respond, were linked to dam operations; they hypothesized that pronounced arroyo incision, which occurs during rainfall runoff, was caused by lowering of the effective base level at the mouths of ephemeral drainages to meet the new postdam elevation of high-flow sediment deposition, about 3 to 4 m below the lowest predam alluvial terraces. Thompson and Potochnik (2000) modified that hypothesis to include the restorative effects of fluvial deposition in the mouths of gullies and ar

Professional Paper↗

USGS2005

A decrease in discharge-normalized DOC export by the Yukon River during summer through autumn

Climate warming is having a dramatic effect on the vegetation distribution and carbon cycling of terrestrial subarctic and arctic ecosystems. Here, we present hydrologic evidence that warming is also affecting the export of dissolved organic carbon and bicarbonate (DOC and HCO 3 − ) at the large basin scale. In the 831,400 km 2 Yukon River basin, water discharge (Q) corrected DOC export significantly decreased during the growing season from 1978–80 to 2001–03, indicating a major shift in terrestrial to aquatic C transfer. We conclude that decreased DOC export, relative to total summer through autumn Q, results from increased flow path, residence time, and microbial mineralization of DOC in the soil active layer and groundwater. Counter to current predictions, we argue that continued warming could result in decreased DOC export to the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean by major subarctic and arctic rivers, due to increased respiration of organic C on land.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2026

Modeling future groundwater depletion to evaluate sustainability goals set under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in the critically overdrafted basins of the Central Valley, California, USA (2020–2070)

In 2014, California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) mandated local agencies to devise and implement groundwater sustainability plans to address critically overdrafted conditions throughout the state's aquifers. However, the feasibility of these agencies' sustainability goals has not previously been assessed through a regional-scale, integrative lens. Here, we develop and analyze a novel, basin-wide database of 936 sustainability indicator wells located within Central Valley subbasins designated as critically overdrafted, most of which lie in the San Joaquin Valley. Our database shows 2040 groundwater elevation goals vary widely from 60 m above to 80 m below 2020 levels, with variability within and between adjacent subbasins. To evaluate the feasibility of achieving these goals, we coupled the database with a regional hydrologic model (Central Valley Hydrologic Model version 2) and simulated multiple future pumping scenarios. Results show that under increased groundwater demand, 60%–70% of indicator wells may fail to meet their 2040 goals. Even a 50% reduction from 2020 demand levels leaves nearly 40% of wells failing to meet their sustainability thresholds by 2040. Baseline models show that by 2070, up to 70% of wells could fail to meet their goals due to large-scale, spatially connected regions of groundwater depletion. This integrated framework, linking the first region-wide compilation of SGMA indicator wells with a regional groundwater model, demonstrates that many local sustainability goals may be unattainable with substantial (up to 50%) reductions in pumping. Additional management interventions, such as expanded recharge or coordinated demand reductions, may help achieve sustainability goals.

California↗

USGS2010

Interactions of solutes and streambed sediment: 2. A dynamic analysis of coupled hydrologic and chemical processes that determine solute transport

Solute transport in streams is determined by the interaction of physical and chemical processes. Data from an injection experiment for chloride and several cations indicate significant influence of solutestreambed processes on transport in a mountain stream. These data are interpreted in terms of transient storage processes for all tracers and sorption processes for the cations. Process parameter values are estimated with simulations based on coupled quasi-two-dimensional transport and first-order mass transfer sorption. Comparative simulations demonstrate the relative roles of the physical and chemical processes in determining solute transport. During the first 24 hours of the experiment, chloride concentrations were attenuated relative to expected plateau levels. Additional attenuation occurred for the sorbing cation strontium. The simulations account for these storage processes. Parameter values determined by calibration compare favorably with estimates from other studies in mountain streams. Without further calibration, the transport of potassium and lithium is adequately simulated using parameters determined in the chloride-strontium simulation and with measured cation distribution coefficients.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2010

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2011

Simulating adsorption of U(VI) under transient groundwater flow and hydrochemistry: Physical versus chemical nonequilibrium model

Coupled intragrain diffusional mass transfer and nonlinear surface complexation processes play an important role in the transport behavior of U(VI) in contaminated aquifers. Two alternative model approaches for simulating these coupled processes were analyzed and compared: (1) the physical nonequilibrium approach that explicitly accounts for aqueous speciation and instantaneous surface complexation reactions in the intragrain regions and approximates the diffusive mass exchange between the immobile intragrain pore water and the advective pore water as multirate first-order mass transfer and (2) the chemical nonequilibrium approach that approximates the diffusion-limited intragrain surface complexation reactions by a set of multiple first-order surface complexation reaction kinetics, thereby eliminating the explicit treatment of aqueous speciation in the intragrain pore water. A model comparison has been carried out for column and field scale scenarios, representing the highly transient hydrological and geochemical conditions in the U(VI)-contaminated aquifer at the Hanford 300A site, Washington, USA. It was found that the response of U(VI) mass transfer behavior to hydrogeochemically induced changes in U(VI) adsorption strength was more pronounced in the physical than in the chemical nonequilibrium model. The magnitude of the differences in model behavior depended particularly on the degree of disequilibrium between the advective and immobile phase U(VI) concentrations. While a clear difference in U(VI) transport behavior between the two models was noticeable for the column-scale scenarios, only minor differences were found for the Hanford 300A field scale scenarios, where the model-generated disequilibrium conditions were less pronounced as a result of frequent groundwater flow reversals.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2008

Groundwater flow and solute movement to drain laterals, western San Joaquin Valley, California: 2. Quantitative hydrologic assessment

Groundwater flow modeling was used to quantitatively assess the hydrologic processes affecting ground water and solute movement to drain laterals. Modeling results were used to calculate the depth distribution of groundwater flowing into drain laterals at 1.8 m (drain lateral 1) and 2.7 m (drain lateral 2) below land surface. The simulations indicated that under nonirrigated conditions about 89% of the flow in drain lateral 2 was from groundwater originating from depths greater than 6 m below land surface. The deep groundwater has higher selenium concentrations than shallow groundwater. Simulation of irrigated conditions indicates that as recharge (deep percolation) increases, the proportional contribution of deep groundwater to drain lateral flow decreases. Groundwater flow paths and travel times estimated from the simulation results indicate that groundwater containing high concentrations of selenium (greater than 780 μg L −1 ) probably will continue to enter drain lateral 2 for decades.

California↗

USGS2022

Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of flood damage probability for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events ( n = 71,434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g., flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a flood damage probability for each 100-m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g., forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g., wetlands). Our results identified flood damage probability hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating flood damage probability estimates across the nation.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2010

Processes controlling the chemistry of two snowmelt‐dominated streams in the Rocky Mountains

Time‐intensive discharge and chemical data for two alpine streams in the Loch Vale watershed, Colorado, were used to identify sources of runoff, flow paths, and important biogeochemical processes during the 1992 snowmelt runoff season. In spite of the paucity of soil cover the chemical composition of the streams is regulated much as in typical forested watersheds. Soils and other shallow groundwater matrices such as boulder fields appear to be more important in controlling surface‐water chemistry than their abundance would indicate. The chemical composition of the major source waters (usually thought of as end‐members whose chemical composition is relatively constant over time) changes at the same time that their mixing ratio in streams changes, confounding use of end‐member mixing models to describe stream‐water chemistry. Changes in the chemical composition of these source waters are caused by the ionic pulse of solutes from the snowpack and the small size of the shallow groundwater reservoir compared to the volume of snowmelt passing through it. The brief hydrologic residence time in the shallow groundwater indicates that concentrations of most dissolved constituents of stream water were controlled by fast geochemical processes that occurred on timescales of hours to days, rather than slower processes such as weathering of primary minerals. Differences in the timing of snowmelt‐related processes between different areas of the watershed also affect the stream‐water chemical composition. Cirque lakes affect discharge and chemical composition of one of the streams; seasonal control on stream‐water NO 3 and SiO 2 concentrations by diatom uptake in the lakes was inferred. Elution of acidic waters from the snowpack, along with dilution of base cations originating in shallow groundwater, caused episodes of decreased acid‐neutralizing capacity in the streams, but the streams did not become acidic.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

InSAR detects increase in surface subsidence caused by an Arctic tundra fire

Wildfire is a major disturbance in the Arctic tundra and boreal forests, having a significant impact on soil hydrology, carbon cycling, and permafrost dynamics. This study explores the use of the microwave Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique to map and quantify ground surface subsidence caused by the Anaktuvuk River fire on the North Slope of Alaska. We detected an increase of up to 8 cm of thaw-season ground subsidence after the fire, which is due to a combination of thickened active layer and permafrost thaw subsidence. Our results illustrate the effectiveness and potential of using InSAR to quantify fire impacts on the Arctic tundra, especially in regions underlain by ice-rich permafrost. Our study also suggests that surface subsidence is a more comprehensive indicator of fire impacts on ice-rich permafrost terrain than changes in active layer thickness alone.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Integrated hydrology and operations modeling to evaluate climate change impacts in an agricultural valley irrigated with snowmelt runoff

Applying models to developed agricultural regions remains a difficult problem because there are no existing modeling codes that represent both the complex physics of the hydrology and anthropogenic manipulations to water distribution and consumption. We apply an integrated groundwater – surface water and hydrologic river operations model to an irrigated river valley in northwestern Nevada/northern California, United States to evaluate the impacts of climate change on snow-fed agricultural systems that use surface water and groundwater conjunctively. We explicitly represent individual surface water rights within the hydrologic model and allow the integrated code to change river diversions in response to earlier snowmelt runoff and water availability. Historically under-used supplemental groundwater rights are dynamically activated within the model to offset diminished surface water deliveries. The model accounts for feedbacks between the natural hydrology and anthropogenic stresses, which is a first-of-its-kind assessment of the impacts of climate change on individual water rights, and more broadly on river basin operations. Earlier snowmelt decreases annual surface water deliveries to all water rights, not just the junior water rights, owing to a lack of surface water storage in the upper river basin capable of capturing earlier runoff. Conversely, downstream irrigators with access to reservoir storage benefit from earlier runoff flowing past upstream points of diversion prior to the start of the irrigation season. Despite regional shifts toward greater reliance on groundwater for irrigation, crop consumption (a common surrogate for crop yield) decreases due to spatiotemporal changes in water supply that preferentially impact a subset of growers in the region.

California↗

USGS2015

Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century

Most models evaluated by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate change estimate projected increases in temperature and precipitation with rising atmospheric CO 2 levels. Researchers have suggested that increases in CO 2 and associated increases in temperature and precipitation may stimulate vegetation growth and increase evapotranspiration (ET), which acts as a cooling mechanism, and on a global scale, may slow the climate-warming trend. This hypothesis has been modeled under increased CO 2 conditions with models of different vegetation-climate dynamics. The significance of this vegetation negative feedback, however, has varied between models. Here we conduct a century-scale observational analysis of the Eastern US water balance to determine historical evapotranspiration trends and whether vegetation greening has affected these trends. We show that precipitation has increased significantly over the twentieth century while runoff has not. We also show that ET has increased and vegetation growth is partially responsible.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2020

Hydrologic properties of a highly permeable firn aquifer in the Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica

We present measurements of the density, hydraulic conductivity, and specific discharge of a widespread firn aquifer in Antarctica, within the Wilkins Ice Shelf. At the field site, the aquifer is 16.2 m thick, starting at 13.4 m from the snow surface and transitioning from water‐saturated firn to ice at 29.6 m. Hydraulic conductivity derived from slug tests show a geometric mean value of 1.4 ± 1.2 × 10 −4 m s −1 , equivalent to permeability of 2.6 ± 2.2 × 10 −11 m 2 . A borehole dilution test indicates an average specific discharge value of 1.9 ± 2.8 × 10 −6 m s −1 . Ground‐penetrating radar profiles and a groundwater flow model show the aquifer is draining laterally into a large nearby rift. Our findings indicate that the firn aquifer in the vicinity of the field site is likely not in a steady state and its presence likely contributed to past ice shelf instability.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California

California is experiencing one of the worst droughts on record. Here we use a hydrological model and risk assessment framework to understand the influence of temperature on the water year (WY) 2014 drought in California and examine the probability that this drought would have been less severe if temperatures resembled the historical climatology. Our results indicate that temperature played an important role in exacerbating the WY 2014 drought severity. We found that if WY 2014 temperatures resembled the 1916–2012 climatology, there would have been at least an 86% chance that winter snow water equivalent and spring-summer soil moisture and runoff deficits would have been less severe than the observed conditions. We also report that the temperature forecast skill in California for the important seasons of winter and spring is negligible, beyond a lead-time of one month, which we postulate might hinder skillful drought prediction in California.

California↗