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Landsliding follows signatures of wildfire history and vegetative regrowth in a steep coastal shrubland

Five years after the deadly and destructive 9 January 2018 Montecito debris flows (Santa Barbara County, California, USA), an atmospheric river storm on 9 January 2023 triggered widespread landsliding that affected many of the same drainages in the Santa Ynez Mountains. Using high-resolution aerial imagery, we identified >10,000 landslides over an ∼160 km 2 area. Most of the landslides were shallow (<1 m in depth) translational debris slides that initiated on steep (∼40°), south-facing hillslopes, with the highest incidence of landsliding in a sandstone-dominated bedrock unit. The landslides mobilized into debris flows and delivered substantial quantities of sediment downstream, which contributed to costly infrastructure impairments. We detected order-of-magnitude differences in landslide density across the study area that could not be attributed to variations in geomorphology (topographic aspect and slope), geology (bedrock type), or hydrology (seasonal antecedent rainfall, peak hourly storm rainfall intensity, total storm rainfall), which are usually considered relevant factors for shallow landsliding. Rather, we found that vegetation regrowth following wildfire was likely a relevant factor associated with the highly variable landslide densities. Hillslopes with less and different types of vegetation regrowth after fire appear to have been more susceptible to shallow landslides. We identify a possible vegetation control on postfire landsliding, which highlights an opportunity for hypothesis testing using more advanced techniques to track the evolution of vegetation cover and vegetation type in steep shrubland environments following wildfire.

California

Evaluating the U.S. Geological Survey’s earthquake shaking hazard forecasts and their implications on seismic risk

We analyze the last six update cycles of the long-term probabilistic earthquake shaking hazard forecast from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and discuss the changes in hazard estimates from the 1996 to the latest 2023 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. We summarize how our understanding of earthquake hazards has evolved over the last two decades and quantify the implications of changing hazards on people, buildings, and lifeline infrastructure. The net effect of changes in hazard estimates, with reference to the mean hazard from the 2023 NSHM update that has 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, suggests an overall increase in total geographic areas facing very strong shaking levels (modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of VII or more) when compared with any of the previous cycles. This increase puts ~159.2 million people (an increase from 111.8 million when using the 2018 NSHM), ~47.3 million residential buildings (an increase from 32.5 million with the 2018 NSHM), and ~$25.6 trillion of economic exposure of all buildings (an increase from $17.4 trillion when using the 2018 NSHM) at risk from earthquakes. We demonstrate that small changes in hazard estimates do not necessarily imply small changes in risk estimates. Therefore, changes in risk estimates can be used to highlight key USGS NSHM updates for improving risk mitigation efforts.

Earthquake Spectra Journal

Ringtail (Bassariscus astutus) survival in southwestern Oregon

The effective conservation and management of small carnivore populations requires understanding species’ life-history traits and identifying important vital rates that drive population trajectories. However, many of these species are rare or elusive and of state or federal conservation concern, and demographic information is often lacking and difficult to obtain. At the northern limit of their range in Oregon, USA, ringtail ( Bassariscus astutus ) occupy mid-elevation forests and are a species of conservation concern because of their limited distribution and suspected low density. We initiated a radio-telemetry study in 2020 to estimate monthly and annual survival of ringtail in southwest Oregon. We monitored 26 ringtail from November 2020 to October 2022 and estimated survival rates using a known-fate framework and Program MARK. Model-averaged monthly survival estimates ranged from lows of 0.963 (SE = 0.022, 95% CI = 0.887–0.988) in spring (Feb–May) of 2021 to highs of 0.980 (SE = 0.018, 95% CI = 0.889–0.997) in summer (Jun–Oct) of 2022. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival were 0.695 (SE = 0.176, 95% CI = 0.310–0.920) during 2020–2021 and 0.728 (SE = 0.168, 95% CI = 0.336–0.934) during 2021–2022. Predation was the leading cause of mortality, but notably, no mortalities could be attributed to avian predation. Survival rates were much higher within forested landscapes in Oregon than for populations in the southwestern United States, which may have implications for regional conservation and management strategies.

Oregon

Assessment of potential for natural attenuation of chlorinated ethenes and ethanes in ground water at a petrochemical reclamation site, Harris County, Texas

Redox conditions in the Numerous Sand Channels Zone beneath a petrochemical reclamation site in Harris County, Texas, range from sulfate reducing to methanogenic as indicated by the presence of methane in ground water and the range of molecular hydrogen concentrations. Assessment of the potential for reductive dechlorination using BIOCHLOR as a screening tool indicated conditions favoring anaerobic degradation of chlorinated organic compounds in the Numerous Sand Channels Zone. Evidence supporting reductive dechlorination includes apparently biogenic cis -1,2-dichloroethene; an increased ratio of 1,2-dichloroethane to 1,1,2-trichloroethane downgradient from the assumed contaminant source area; ethene and methane concentrations greater than background concentrations within the area of the contaminant plume; and a positive correlation of the ratio of ethene to vinyl chloride as a function of methane concentrations. The body of evidence presented in this report argues for hydrogenolysis of trichloroethene to cis -1,2-dichloroethene; of 1,1,2-trichloroethane to 1,2-dichloroethane; and of vinyl chloride to ethene within the Numerous Sand Channels Zone. Simulations using BIOCHLOR yielded apparent first-order decay constants for reductive dechlorination in the sequence tetrachloroethene trichloroethene cis -1,2-dichloroethene vinyl chloride ethene within the range of literature values reported for each compound and apparent first-order decay constants for reductive dechlorination in the sequence 1,1,2-trichloroethane 1,2-dichloroethane slightly greater than literature values reported for each compound along the upgradient segment of a simulated ground-water flowpath. Except for vinyl chloride, apparent rates of reductive dechlorination for all simulated species show a marked decrease along the downgradient segment of the simulated ground-water flowpath. Evidence for reductive dechlorination of chlorinated ethenes within the Numerous Sand Channels Zone indicates potential for natural attenuation of chlorinated ethenes. Reductive dechlorination of chlorinated ethanes apparently occurs to a lesser extent, indicating relatively less potential for natural attenuation of chlorinated ethanes. Additional data are needed on the concentrations and distribution of chlorinated ethenes and ethanes in individual fine sand intervals of the Numerous Sand Channels Zone. This information, combined with lower minimum reporting levels for future chloroethane analyses, might enable a more complete and quantitative assessment of the potential for natural attenuation at the site.

Texas

Earthquake stress-drop values delineate spatial variations in maximum shear stress in the Japanese forearc lithosphere

Earthquake stress drop (Δσ) may increase with depth and stress in the brittle lithosphere. However, the range of uncertainty in Δσ and the lack of constraints on absolute stress make it difficult to establish whether they are correlated. Here, we investigate Δσ dependence on depth and maximum shear stress ( τ max ) based on ~11 years of seismicity in the northeastern Japanese forearc following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki megathrust earthquake. We interpret Δσ estimates computed using both individual spectra and spectral-ratio methods and find that Δσ exhibits a clear depth dependence within the seismically active upper ~60 km of the forearc lithosphere ( ~ 0.8 MPa per 10 km). We further compare Δσ values with quantitative τ max estimates from finite-element models of force balance. We find that median Δσ values increase with τ max in the brittle forearc lithosphere and that earthquake stress release is proportional to τ max . The dependence of Δσ on τ max explains the apparent depth dependence of Δσ and suggests that average Δσ values provide a relative measure of the stress at failure. In the northeastern Japanese forearc, Δσ values remained roughly constant in the decade following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, suggesting negligible changes in failure stress in the forearc since the mainshock.

Communications Earth and Environment

PEST++IES how many iterations & realizations, finding the point of diminishing returns

PEST++IES (White 2018; White et al. 2020) is widely used in the groundwater modeling community for its ability to perform computationally efficient history matching and uncertainty analysis in a highly parameterized context. One primary advantage of using an iterative ensemble smoother is that the number of model runs required per iteration depends on the number of realizations in an ensemble, not the number of parameters in each realization. However, this raises the question: what is the optimal number of realizations and iterations to use for any one model before the point of diminishing returns? Using a modified version of the Freyberg model (Freyberg 1988; Hunt et al. 2020), different parameter and observation scenarios were evaluated for four iterations and ensembles of 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000, and 2000 realizations. To match observations, PEST++IES altered hydraulic conductivity ( k ), both globally across the model and locally at three different pilot point densities, as well as global recharge (via a single multiplier), global river conductance, and individual well flow rates. Risk-based well capture zone results (Fienen et al. 2022a) and estimated hydraulic conductivity fields from each scenario were quantitatively and qualitatively compared against the “truth” model and its outputs. Across the cases examined, ensemble sizes of 100 to 250 realizations and two PEST++IES iterations were generally sufficient to achieve good results.

Groundwater

Iodine-129 in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 2021–22

Between the 1950s and 1980s, wastewater generated at the Idaho National Laboratory contained Iodine-129 ( 129 I); this wastewater was discharged directly into the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer through a deep disposal well, unlined infiltration ponds, or leaked from distribution systems below industrial facilities. During 2021–22, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy and the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Idaho National Laboratory Oversight Program, collected groundwater samples from 64 monitoring wells in the ESRP aquifer, 6 of which are part of a multilevel monitoring system, to determine the concentration of 129 I in the groundwater. These samples were analyzed by accelerator mass spectrometry as part of a long-term ongoing study to track trends and occurrences of this carcinogenic, long-lived radionuclide in the environment. Concentrations ranged from slightly above the locally determined background concentration of 5.4×10 −6 picocuries per liter, to just below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum contaminant level of 1 picocurie per liter. Discharge of wastewater containing 129 I has been discontinued to the aquifer, and long-term trends from a subset (n=15) of sampled wells show decreasing 129 I concentrations over the last three decades. Concentrations of 129 I in groundwater from monitoring wells near facilities at the Idaho National Laboratory are affected by episodic recharge from an ephemeral surface-water source and by the fracture-flow dominated hydrologic regime in the ESRP aquifer. The spatially focused sampling effort has also identified a low-level 129 I plume that affects long-term water quality near and downgradient from the Advanced Test Reactor Complex in the southwestern part of the facility that had not been clearly defined in previous sampling efforts, although the definition of the plume is somewhat limited by available data.

Idaho

Macroseismology

In this chapter I discuss the use of so-called macroseismic data, i.e., reports of damage and other effects of shaking on humans and the built environment, to improve the characterization of earthquakes and the ground motions they produce. Macroseismic data are critical not only to investigate earthquakes that occurred before the start of the instrumental era in seismology, but are also, by virtue of the spatially rich nature of the data, of tremendous potential importance to investigate early instrumental and even recent earthquakes. Fueled by both the advent of on-line systems that now produce unprecedented volumes of macroseismic intensity data and by recognition of the importance of understanding key historical earthquakes, there has been a growing appreciation for the value of macroseismic data. It is, however, critical to understand both the unique challenges and the unique opportunities associated with these data. I review the evolution of thought and practices regarding analysis of macroseismic data, and the use of such data to improve the characterization of historic and early instrumental earthquakes.

Book chapter

Timescales of cumulate mobilization and mixing for the 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa, Island of Hawai‘i

The deadly 1868 A.D. eruption of Mauna Loa’s lower Southwest Rift Zone (Island of Hawai‘i) included a M7.9 earthquake and associated tsunami and landslides, demonstrating the severe hazards posed by Earth’s largest active subaerial volcano. To better understand the relationship between intense seismic activity, dike emplacement, magma storage, transport histories, and mobilization of olivine cumulates at Mauna Loa, we examine compositional zoning of olivine in the 1868 lava flows. Samples range from basalt (< 10% olivine) to picrite (30–40% olivine). The olivine cargo is heterogeneous (Fo 78.2–89.2 ; forsterite = [Mg/(Mg + Fe) × 100]) but dominated by ~ Fo 89 cores that lie above the Fe-Mg equilibrium field of host glasses. Crystal rims < Fo 80 are due to post-eruptive modification in slow cooling lava flows. Minor element compositions fall within the range of other Mauna Loa olivine erupted in the past 200 years. Olivine crystals exhibit both normal and complex Fo zoning patterns that yield timescales of diffusive re-equilibration that range from 3 to 258 days, with 72% of crystals recording 71 days or less. These timescales correspond to magmatic priming of the summit reservoir system ~ 2 months prior to the eruption and the M7.9 earthquake likely facilitated the transport of the crystal-rich summit-derived magmas downrift shortly prior to eruption. If the recently proposed faster Fe-Mg diffusion coefficient is used, timescales instead range from < 1 day to 25 days, with most recording 1 week or less. In this scenario, most of the olivine zoning would have to have been generated after the M7.9 earthquake perturbed the system.

Hawaii

The Hardscrabble Creek complex: A newly discovered, mostly buried, Mesoproterozoic mafic-ultramafic pluton in the Wet Mountains, Colorado, USA

The origin of prolific ca. 1.4 Ga ferroan magmatism between the southwestern USA and eastern Canada is enigmatic and has been explained by various models, including extensional, mantle plume, and convergent plate-margin models. Rare mafic plutons are associated with the ferroan plutons, which may help constrain their mantle source and tectonic setting. In the southwestern USA, only two such mafic plutons are known to exist. We present the first evidence for a third, mostly buried, potentially layered, mafic-ultramafic Mesoproterozoic pluton, informally referred to as the Hardscrabble Creek complex, in the central Wet Mountains of Colorado, USA. Recent geophysical data show an elliptical magnetic and gravity high spatially coincident with local gabbroic outcrops. New field and petrographic analyses of these exposed rocks reveal that they consist of ultramafic to mafic cumulates, including orthopyroxenite, olivine norite, norite, and anorthosite. High-precision U-Pb dating of zircon from orthopyroxenite and norite yield weighted mean 206 Pb/ 238 U dates of 1352.36 ± 1.60 Ma and 1352.37 ± 1.71 Ma, respectively. These dates indicate that the complex formed over a narrow timeframe, after the adjacent 1362 ± 7 Ma ferroan San Isabel Granite, and during the waning stages of the regional ca. 1.4 Ga ferroan magmatism. Whole-rock geochemistry and Nd-Sr-Pb isotope compositions of samples from the Hardscrabble Creek complex are similar to those of the San Isabel Granite, suggesting that they were derived from the same or a similar mantle source. The mineral chemistry of the samples is comparable to Proterozoic massif-type anorthosites and related mafic intrusions, indicating that the Hardscrabble Creek complex and San Isabel Granite together represent a rare anorthosite-mangerite-charnockite-granite (AMCG) suite in the southwestern USA. The Hardscrabble Creek complex is unique because it formed ~80 m.y. after the other few mafic plutons in the southwestern USA, and it contains an ultramafic section that is absent from these plutons and rare to the AMCG suite in general. A combination of arc-like whole-rock geochemistry, chondrite uniform reservoir-like Nd-Sr-Pb isotopes, and ocean island basalt (OIB)-like zircon trace element chemistry suggests that the complex was derived from a partial melt of OIB-like mantle and interacted with metasomatically enriched lithospheric mantle. The enriched lithospheric mantle signature, combined with the long ~160 m.y. duration of magmatism in the region, is consistent with a period of protracted convergent tectonism.

Colorado

2024 Crustal Deformation Modeling Workshop report

The 2024 Crustal Deformation Modeling Workshop was held June 10–14 at the Colorado School of Mines. The workshop included two days of tutorials on using PyLith for crustal deformation modeling, followed by three days of science talks and discussions. The workshop focused on four primary themes: ● Constraining long-term fault slip rates and their uncertainties using geodetic and geologic data; ● Earthquake cycle modeling with a focus on constraining models using seismic and geodetic data; ● Interaction of fluids and faulting; and ● Separating contributions of surface loading and tectonic loading in crustal deformation. The complete agenda is available on the CIG website.

Conference Paper

Nonpoint-source pollutant discharges of the three major tributaries to Reelfoot Lake, west Tennessee, October 1987-September 1989

An investigation of the concentration and loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment in storm runoff to Reelfoot Lake, in western Tennessee, was conducted from October 1987 through September 1989. Concentrations of selected herbicides also were defined. Reelfoot Lake, with a surface area of about 15,500 acres, is the largest natural lake in Tennessee and an important recreation and fisheries resource. Previous studies showed that the lake is hypereutrophic, a condition caused by high concentrations of nutrients in water and sediments discharged from the three principal tributaries (South Reelfoot Creek, North Reelfoot Creek, and Running Slough) to the lake. Pesticides, including herbicides, have been detected in the lake's bottom sediments. Storm runoff contributed about 87percent of the total water discharge of the three main tributaries to Reelfoot Lake. South Reelfoot Creek contributed about 4.7 tons per acre per year of suspended sediment, while North Reelfoot Creek contributed about 1.9 tons per acre per year. Running Slough contributed only about 0.31 ton per acre per year of suspended sediment. Most of the suspended sediment was transported by storm runoff between October and March. About 80 percent of the annual streamflow of the three tributaries occurs during these months. The North Reelfoot Creek basin contributed 8.2 pounds per acre per year of total nitrogen and 2.4 pounds per acre per year of total phosphorus. South Reelfoot Creek basin contributed about 6.5 and 1.3 pounds per acre per year of total nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, while Running Slough basin contributions were 3.4 and 0.86 pounds per acre per year, respectively. The differences in nutrient yields appear to result from more row-crop agriculture and the relatively steeply sloping agricultural land in the North Reelfoot Creek basin. Ninety-one percent of the total nitrogen load and 95 percent of the total phosphorus load in the three streams was transported by storm runoff. Significant differences in the mean concentrations of nutrients in runoff were defined between the active agricultural months (April through September) and the inactive months (October through March). Storm-runoff samples were analyzed for II selected triazine herbicides. Alachlor and atrazine were the most commonly detected herbicides. Thirty-two percent of the samples contained detectable levels of alachlor and 93 percent of the samples contained detectable levels of atrazine. Ninety percent of the samples collected during the active agricultural months contained detectable leveki of alachlor and all 29 samples contained detectable levels of atrazine. Sixteen samples exceeded lifetime health-advisory levels for atrazine in drinking water (3 micrograms per liter); two samples collected from the April IS, 1988, storm at North Reelfoot Creek and South Reelfoot Creek contained 42 and 57 micrograms per liter of atrazine, respectively. Concentrations of the other nine triazine herbicides were generally less than the level of detection (0.1 microgram per liter).

Tennessee

Water quality of the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers on the Osage Reservation, Osage County, Oklahoma, 1997

The project was to provide information on the quality of ground water from rural-domestic-water wells within the Osage Reservation and compare the water-quality to proximity to oil wells. About 38,500 oil wells have been drilled in the Reservation since drilling began in 1896. About 1,480 square miles or 64 percent of the Reservation is within a quarter mile of an oil well. The unconfined Quaternary sand aquifer covers about 315 square miles or about 14 percent of the Reservation and the confined Ada-Vamoosa sandstone aquifer covers about 800 square miles or about 35 percent of the Reservation. Fifty-eight percent of the Quaternary aquifer and 69 percent of the outcrop area of the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer are within a quarter mile of an oil well. One hundred twenty domestic ground-water wells were sampled from the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers. Forty-nine percent of the Reservation is underlain by the aquifers. Ground-water quality is good on most of the Reservation, but the use of domestic-water-supply wells tend to minimize water-quality problems. Existing water-supply wells commonly are located in areas that produce usable volumes of potable water. Several constituents in samples from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer within a quarter mile of an oil well were significantly greater than from the aquifer not near oil wells. The constituents include specific conductance, dissolved solids, sodium, sulfate, chloride, bromide, and silica. These ions are probably derived from brine water. In the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer subgroups, 57 percent of the samples near oil wells and 24 percent of the samples not near oil wells had dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter. The water quality in the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers is similar in areas where no oil wells have been drilled but is significantly different for several constituents. Median concentrations of major constituents from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer not near oil wells were less than or equal to values from the Quaternary aquifer. Sixty-four percent of the water-quality samples from the Quaternary and 51 percent from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifers have dissolved-solids concentrations less than the secondary drinking water regulations of 500 milligrams per liter. Fifty-nine percent of the aquifer samples in the Quaternary aquifer subgroups not near oil wells and 70 percent of the samples near oil wells had dissolved solids less than 500 milligrams per liter. Areas in the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer near Hominy, Pershing, and Hula Lake have dissolved-solids concentrations greater than the secondary drinking water regulations. Water-quality samples from the Quaternary aquifer in these areas also have dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter.

Oklahoma

A methods framework for evaluating measurement consistency across spectrometers for multispectral uncrewed aerial system vegetation mapping applications

The U.S. Geological Survey collects remote sensing data to support national scientific assessments of natural resources, hazards, and landscape change. Spectrometers and spectroradiometers are essential for gathering point-based spectral measurements used in applications such as uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) multispectral image calibration, validation, and analysis. Evaluating how different instruments perform in laboratory and field environments helps determine whether they provide consistent, interoperable measurements. Such verification can expand access to spectral ground data during UAS operations by allowing scientists to use alternative instruments when budgets, logistics, or field conditions limit options. We propose and test a methodological framework for evaluating spectrometers for measurement consistency during UAS multispectral vegetation mapping applications. There are three central evaluation components to the framework: laboratory, field, and relative to UAS multispectral imagery. By evaluating the instruments in both relatively controlled and uncontrolled environments, we thoroughly examine measurement consistency and when/why measurements may differ. We opportunistically selected two instruments for a case study in a coastal marsh setting: a compact laboratory spectrometer we modified for field use and a field-ready spectroradiometer. The instruments produced consistent measurements in both environments. We found differences between the field spectra and UAS spectra that likely reflect the perspectives of ground vs. aerial data and indicate that further radiometric calibration may be needed.

Massachusetts

Hydraulic properties of the Madison aquifer system in the western Rapid City area, South Dakota

Available information on hydrogeology, data from borehole geophysical logs, and aquifer tests were used to determine the hydraulic properties of the Madison aquifer. From aquifer-test analysis, transmissivity and storage coefficient were determined for the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers, and vertical hydraulic conductivity (K v ') along with specific storage (Ss') for the Minnelusa confining bed. Borehole geophysical well logs were used to determine the thickness and location of the Minnelusa aquifer, the lower Minnelusa confining bed, and the Madison aquifer within the Madison Limestone. Porosity values determined from quantitative analysis of borehole geophysical well logs were used in analyzing the aquifer-test data. The average porosity at the two aquifer-test sites is about 10 percent in the Minnelusa aquifer, 5 percent in the lower Minnelusa confining bed, and 35 percent in the Madison aquifer. The first aquifer test, which was conducted at Rapid City production well #6, produced measured drawdown in the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers. Neuman and Witherspoon's method of determining the hydraulic properties of leaky two-aquifer systems was used to evaluate the aquifer-test data by assuming the fracture and solution-opening network is equivalent to a porous media. Analysis of the aquifer test for the Minnelusa aquifer yielded a transmissivity value of 12,000 feet squared per day and a storage coefficient of 3 x 10 -3 . The specific storage of the Minnelusa confining bed was 2 x 10 -7 per foot, and its vertical hydraulic conductivity was 0.3 foot per day. The transmissivity of the Madison aquifer at this site was 17,000 feet squared per day, and the storage coefficient was 2 x 10 -3 . The second aquifer test, which was conducted at Rapid City production well #5 (RC-5) produced measured drawdown only in the Madison aquifer. Hantush and Jacob's method of determining the hydraulic properties of leaky confined aquifers with no storage in the confining bed was used to evaluate the aquifer-test data by assuming the fracture and solution-opening network is equivalent to a porous media. The analysis of data from the RC-5 aquifer test showed that transmissivity was not equal in all directions. Hantush's method was used to determine the direction of radial anisotropy and magnitude of the major and minor axes of transmissivity. The major axis of transmissivity is at an angle of 42° east of north, and the transmissivity along this axis is about 56,000 feet squared per day. The minor axis of transmissivity is at an angle of 48° west of north, and the transmissivity along this axis is about 1,300 feet squared per day. The major axis of transmissivity intersects Cleghorn Springs, a large resurgent spring on the west edge of Rapid City. The shape of the potentiometric contours of the Madison aquifer near RC-5 agree with the orientation of the transmissivity ellipse. The average value of the storage coefficient from the isotropic analysis of the aquifer-test data was 3.5 x 10 -4 , and the average vertical hydraulic conductivity of the lower Minnelusa confining bed was 9.6 x 10 -3 foot per day.

South Dakota

Stormflow chemistry in the Santa Ana River below Prado Dam and at the diversion downstream from Imperial Highway, southern California, 1995-98

The Santa Ana River drains about 2,670 square miles of the densely populated coastal area of southern California, near Los Angeles. Almost all the flow in the river, more than 200,000 acre-feet annually, is diverted into ponds where it infiltrates and recharges underlying aquifers. About 2 million people are dependent on these aquifers for water supply. Stormflow in the Santa Ana River is considered a source of "high-quality" water suitable for use as a source of ground-water recharge. To test this assumption, stormflow samples were collected at two locations--below Prado Dam and at the diversion point downstream from Imperial Highway--for 12 winter storms between 1995 and 1998. Nitrate concentrations decreased during stormflow from a median concentration of 7.8 milligrams per liter in base flow to concentrations less than 1 milligram per liter in some large storms. Concentrations of chemically reduced forms of nitrogen (nitrite, ammonia, and organic nitrogen) increased during stormflow and are the predominant forms of nitrogen in large stormflows. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased from a median concentration of 4.6 milligrams per liter in base flow to more than 20 milligrams per liter in some stormflows. Concentrations of DOC were especially high during the first storm of the rainy season, and large increases in DOC concentrations were measured even as a result of small early season storms that did not cause large increases in streamflow. DOC present during early season stormflow had less ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nanometers (UV 254 ) per unit of carbon than did DOC from late season stormflows. DOC in water held in storage behind Prado Dam had the highest UV 254 absorbance per unit of carbon. Maximum pesticide concentrations in stormflow did not exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels. Most pesticide concentrations were less than 1 microgram per liter and less than the detection limits obtained using standard drinking water analyses. Increases in concentrations of pesticides such as diazinon, malathion, and chlorpyrifos in stormflow result from runoff from urban areas downstream from Prado Dam. In general, large late season stormflows have the most pesticide detections of all stormflows sampled. Concentrations of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), a gasoline additive, during base flow were as high as 0.9 microgram per liter and concentrations decreased during stormflow. Like pesticides, the concentrations did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels for MTBE.

California

Do Graviquakes exist?

The “Graviquake” model, proposed in 2015 as an alternative to the elastic dislocation model, posits that normal faults are passive features dominated by coseismic gravitational collapse into a dilated crustal wedge, and that normal faulting is fundamentally distinct from strike‐slip and reverse faulting. Developed using finite‐element modeling before the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence, the model was revamped based on interpreted Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data from these events and used as evidence for a gravitational collapse episode. However, this interpretation relies on miscalculated elevation changes and is not corroborated by independent geophysical and seismological observations. Our analysis exposes fundamental flaws in the Graviquake model. By assuming that faults are passive players, it underrepresents the dynamic role of strain accumulation and release in rocks adjacent to faults. The hypothesized rapid expulsion of overpressurized fluids appears inconsistent with observed diffusion rates and lacks supporting seismological evidence. Part of the uplifted–subsided volume imbalance is likely an artifact arising from data processing, and in part is a transient effect due to the delayed response of the lower crust. Moment tensor analyses detect no isotropic components indicative of gravitational collapse, and observed ground motion and stress‐drop levels remain fully consistent with elastic dislocation theory. In addition, finite‐element modeling of normal faulting replicates observed surface deformation without invoking a collapsing wedge. The Graviquake model proposes a representation of normal‐faulting mechanics that differs significantly from established models and observations. Gravity does play a role in normal faulting, but the elastic dislocation theory remains the definitive framework of fault mechanics. Reinterpreting the 2016 earthquakes as a cascade of gravitational episodes, based on incorrect data processing and modeling, fails to substantiate the Graviquake hypothesis. Persistence in advocating this model could mislead seismic hazard assessment and undermine our understanding of normal faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Relationship of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to soil nitrogen cycling along an elevation gradient in the Colorado Front Range

Microbial processing of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition regulates the retention and mobilization of N in soils, with important implications for water quality. Understanding the links between N deposition, microbial communities, N transformations, and water quality is critical as N deposition shifts toward reduced N and remains persistently high in many regions. Here, we investigated these connections along an elevation transect in the Colorado Front Range. Although rates of N deposition and pools of extractable N increased down the elevation transect, soil microbial communities and N transformation rates did not follow clear elevational patterns. The subalpine microbial community was distinct, corresponding to a high C:N ratio and low pH, while the microbial communities at the lower elevation sites were all very similar. Net nitrification, mineralization, and nitrification potential rates were highest at the Plains (1,700 m) and Montane (2,527 m) sites, suggesting that these ecosystems mobilize N. In contrast, the net immobilization of N observed at the Foothills (1,978 m) and Subalpine (3,015 m) sites suggests that these ecosystems retain N deposition. The contrast in N transformation rates between the plains and foothills, both of which receive elevated N deposition, may be due to spatial heterogeneity not captured in this study and warrants further investigation. Stream N concentrations from the subalpine to the foothills were consistently low, indicating that these soils are currently able to process and retain N deposition, but this may be disrupted if drought, wildfire, or land-use change alter the ability of the soils to retain N.

Colorado