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At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Sequence stratigraphic framework of upper pliocene to holocene sediments of the Los Angeles Basin, California: Implications for aquifer architecture

Executive Summary Groundwater provides more than one-third of the municipal water supply for the coastal Los Angeles Basin and defining the aquifer architecture is a high priority for ground-water managers. Sequence stratigraphy, the state-of-the-art method for delineating reservoir geometry and continuity in the petroleum industry, is now being incorporated into ground water resource assessments and environmental investigations. By evaluating subsurface data using sequence stratigraphy, the geometry and distribution of aquifer and aquitard sediments are linked to the original depositional processes that formed the sediments. Skyline Ridge, Inc., the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Los Angeles County Department of Public Works (LACDPW) and the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRDSC) completed an investigation of the Wilmington – Long Beach area by integrating data from new exploratory research boreholes, marine reflection seismic, vintage land reflection seismic, and high-resolution gravity measurements. Sequence stratigraphy is shown to define pathways for saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal aquifers by integrating preexisting data with (1) the new borehole observations and (2) structural and physical properties data derived from the geophysical measurements. By constructing a series of seismic reflection and well log cross sections (presented as sheets), this investigation further defines and delineates ten sequences of Late Pliocene to Holocene age in the Wilmington – Long Beach area of the Los Angeles Basin. These sequences were first described by Ponti and others (2007), and the implications for sea water intrusion was discussed by Edwards and others (2009a). In addition, this investigation presents regional seismic facies – environment of deposition maps for the five youngest sequences: 1) the Dominquez Sequence; 2) the Mesa Sequence; 3) the Pacific Sequence; the Harbor Sequence; and 4) the Bent Spring Sequence. The stratigraphic framework established in the Wilmington – Long Beach area is extended into the Central Basin of the greater Los Angeles area by utilizing 1980s and older vintage petroleum exploration land seismic reflection data. Tying this data to the available groundwater monitoring well network in the Central and West Coast Basins demonstrate aquifer correlation problems, and may provide insights into establishing a more robust groundwater model for the greater Los Angeles Basin area.

Book↗
USGS2012

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (≥5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

Occurrence and distribution of PFAS in sampled source water of public drinking-water supplies in the surficial aquifer in Delaware, 2018; PFAS and groundwater age-dating results

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control and the Delaware Geological Survey, conducted a groundwater-quality investigation to (1) describe the occurrence and distribution of PFAS, and (2) document any changes in groundwater quality in the Columbia aquifer public water-supply wells in the Delaware Coastal Plain between 2000 and 2008 and between 2008 and 2018. Thirty public water-supply wells located throughout the Columbia aquifer of the Delaware Coastal Plain were sampled from August through November 2018. Groundwater collected from the wells was analyzed for the occurrence and distribution of 18 per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) as well as groundwater age. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed to assess PFAS analytical results within the well network and the combined perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) concentrations were compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) health advisory level (HAL) for informational purposes only and not for evidence of compliance or noncompliance with Federal regulations. The EPA’s HAL is a health-based reference level for public drinking water as supplied to customers and is not applied to source (raw) water. Groundwater-age data were compared for sites sampled in 2000, 2008, and 2018 to document any changes. All samples were analyzed for 18 PFAS using EPA Method 537 (modified). Forty-four percent of the analyzed PFAS were detected in the study well network. Sixteen of the sampled wells have one or more PFAS detections, and as many as eight different PFAS were found in a single sample. Wells with a higher number of PFAS detected (five or more) were in New Castle and Sussex Counties. The PFAS most frequently detected were PFOA, with 47 percent detection; perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA), with 33 percent detection; and PFOS and perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), with 27 percent detection each. PFAS concentrations were below 1,000 parts per trillion (ppt). Two wells exceeded the EPA’s lifetime-drinking water health advisory level of 70 ppt for combined concentrations of PFOA and PFOS. The average age of groundwater entering the screens of the supply wells sampled in 2018 ranged from 8.2 to 45.8 years, with a median groundwater age of 25.7 years. Groundwater age was positively correlated with well depth and negatively correlated with dissolved oxygen. Groundwater age and PFAS concentrations were negatively correlated in the Columbia aquifer. Data from the 23 resampled wells indicate a significant positive difference in the average modeled groundwater-sample-age results. The average groundwater age from samples collected in 2018 was generally 5 years older than the average groundwater age from samples collected in 2008. The same pattern was found during cycle two (2008) of this study, where the 2008 groundwater age was on average 7 years older than the samples collected in 2000. The distribution of groundwater sample ages among the 17 trend wells and during the three study cycles (2000, 2008, and 2018) indicates that sample-age medians were statistically different from zero; well-water sample-age data show a slight increase in groundwater sample age.

Delaware↗
USGS1993

2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents in tissues of birds at Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA

The environment has become contaminated with complex mixtures of planar, chlorinated hydrocarbons (PCHs) such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and structurally similar compounds. Because the potencies of individual congeners to cause the same adverse effects vary greatly and the relative as well as absolute concentrations of individual PCH vary among samples from different locations, it is difficult to assess the toxic effects of these mixtures on wildlife. These compounds can cause a number of adverse effects, however, because the toxic effects which occur at ecologically-relevant concentrations such as embryo-lethality and birth defects appear to be mediated through the same mechanism, the potency of individual congeners can be reported relative to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD) which is the most toxic congener in the PCH class. The concentations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD Equivalents (TCDD-EQ) were determined in the tissues of aquatic and terrestrial birds of Green Bay, Wisconsin by the H4IIE bioassay system and compared toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) with the concentration predicted by the use of toxic equivalency factors applied to concentrations of PCH, which were determined by instrumental analyses. Concentrations of TCDD-EQ ranged from 0.52 to 440 ng/kg, wet weight. The greatest concentrations occurred in the fish-eating birds. Concentrations of TCDD-EQ, which were determined by the two methods were significantly correlated, but the additive model which used the TEFs with concentrations of measured PCB, PCDD and PCDF congeners underestimated the concentrations of TCDD-EQ measured by the H4IIE bioassay by an average of 57%. This is thought to be due to contributions from un-quantified PCH, which are known to occur in the environment. Of the quantified PCH congeners, PCDD and PCDF contributed a small portion of the TCDD-EQ in the aquatic birds, while most of the TCDD-EQ were due to non-ortho-substituted PCBs. In the terrestrial birds, the proportion of the TCDD-EQ contributed by the PCDD and PCDF was greater. This paper has been reviewed in accord with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency policy. Mention of specific products or trade names does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗
USGS2011

Estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages of groundwater from selected sites: National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992–2005

This report documents selected age data interpreted from measured concentrations of environmental tracers in groundwater from 1,399 National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program groundwater sites across the United States. The tracers of interest were chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), and tritium/helium-3 ( 3 H/ 3 He). Tracer data compiled for this analysis primarily were from wells representing two types of NAWQA groundwater studies—Land-Use Studies (shallow wells, usually monitoring wells, in recharge areas under dominant land-use settings) and Major-Aquifer Studies (wells, usually domestic supply wells, in principal aquifers and representing the shallow, used resource). Reference wells (wells representing groundwater minimally impacted by anthropogenic activities) associated with Land-Use Studies also were included. Tracer samples were collected between 1992 and 2005, although two networks sampled from 2006 to 2007 were included because of network-specific needs. Tracer data from other NAWQA Program components (Flow System Studies, which are assessments of processes and trends along groundwater flow paths, and various topical studies) were not compiled herein. Tracer data from NAWQA Land-Use Studies and Major-Aquifer Studies that previously had been interpreted and published are compiled herein (as piston-flow ages), but have not been reinterpreted. Tracer data that previously had not been interpreted and published are evaluated using documented methods and compiled with aqueous concentrations, equivalent atmospheric concentrations (for CFCs and SF 6 ), estimates of tracer-based piston-flow ages, and selected ancillary data, such as redox indicators, well construction, and major dissolved gases (N 2 , O 2 , Ar, CH 4 , and CO 2 ). Tracer-based piston-flow ages documented in this report are simplistic representations of the tracer data. Tracer-based piston-flow ages are a convenient means of conceptualizing groundwater age. However, the piston-flow model is based on the potentially limiting assumptions that tracer transport is advective and that no mixing occurs. Additional uncertainties can arise from tracer degradation, sorption, contamination, or fractionation; terrigenic (natural) sources of tracers; spatially variable atmospheric tracer concentrations; and incomplete understanding of mechanisms of recharge or of the conditions under which atmospheric tracers were partitioned to recharge. The effects of some of these uncertainties are considered herein. For example, degradation, contamination, or fractionation often can be identified or inferred. However, detailed analysis of the effects of such uncertainties on the tracer-based piston-flow ages is constrained by sparse data and an absence of complementary lines of evidence, such as detailed solute transport simulations. Thus, the tracer-based piston-flow ages compiled in this report represent only an initial interpretation of the tracer data.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two land use scenarios (low and high) over a 90 year timespan from 2010 to 2100. Collectively, terrestrial ecosystems of the Hawaiian Islands acted as a net carbon sink under low radiative forcing (RCP 4.5) for the entire 90 year simulation period, with low land use change further enhancing carbon sink strength. In contrast, Hawaiian terrestrial ecosystems transitioned from a net sink to a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere under high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5), with high land use accelerating this transition and exacerbating net carbon loss. A sensitivity test of the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant productivity revealed it to be a major source of uncertainty in projections of ecosystem carbon balance, highlighting the need for greater mechanistic understanding of plant productivity responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Long-term model projections such as ours that incorporate the interactive effects of land use and climate change on regional ecosystem carbon balance will be critical to evaluating the potential of ecosystem-based climate mitigation strategies.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

A characterization of deep-sea coral and sponge communities along the California and Oregon coast using a remotely operated vehicle on the EXPRESS 2018 expedition

Deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) communities serve as essential fish habitats (EFH) by providing shelter and nursery habitat, increasing diversity, and increasing prey availability (Freese and Wing, 2003; Bright, 2007; Baillon et al., 2012; Henderson et al., 2020). Threats to these long-lived, fragile organisms from bottom contact fishing gear, potential offshore renewable energy development, and ocean warming and acidification have increased the need for DSCS research along the U.S. West Coast (Gomez et al., 2018; Salgado et al., 2018; Yoklavich, et al., 2018; Gugliotti et al., 2019). The focus of these studies has varied from species distribution and abundance (Yoklavich and Love, 2005; Tissot et al., 2006) to developing and validating predictive distribution models (Huff et al., 2013; Rooper et al., 2017; Kreidler, 2020) to finding medicinal uses for corals and sponges (Essack et al., 2011; Shrestha et al., 2018). Due to the vast area of unexplored seafloor within the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ; 200 nautical miles off the coast) and the technological requirements and expanse of deep-sea research, there is still much to learn about the distributions and biology of DSCS. This information is critical to resource managers for effective conservation and management of DSCS habitats. Protections are provided by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) designation of groundfish EFH conservation areas (EFHCA) and the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA). Areas designated as EFHCA are closed to bottom trawl fishing to protect and preserve seafloor habitats. Recently the PFMC adopted Amendment 28 to the Groundfish Fishery Management Plan (GFMP; Pacific Fishery Management Council, 2019) which modified EFHCAs by closing new areas identified as vulnerable and reopening areas deemed not vulnerable. The NMSA prohibits bottom disturbance from certain activities within areas designated as national marine sanctuaries, such as oil and gas exploration or extraction, cable laying, and other forms of seabed alteration or construction that disturb benthic communities. NOAA’s Deep-Sea Coral and Research Technology Program (DSCRTP) began a 4-yr funding initiative for the U.S. West Coast in 2017. The goals of the West Coast Deep-Sea Coral Initiative (WCDSCI) were to: 1) gather baseline information on areas subject to fishing regulation changes prior to the implementation of Amendment 28; 2) improve our understanding of known DSCS bycatch “hot spots”; and 3) explore and assess DSCS resources within NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries with emphasis on areas of sanctuary resource protection and management concerns. During the first year of the program, a research cruise was developed to survey the West Coast from Oregon to California studying the DSCS ecosystems in priority areas. The 31-day expedition (9 Oct – 8 Nov, 2018) was launched from the NOAA Ship Bell M. Shimada, beginning in Newport, OR and ending in San Diego, CA. The science team assembled for this cruise were members of the EXpanding Pacific Research and Exploration of Submerged Systems (EXPRESS) campaign, which brings together researchers from federal and nonfederal institutions to collaborate on scientific expeditions targeting the deepwater areas off California, Oregon, and Washington. EXPRESS supports researchers leveraging funding, resources, personnel, and expertise to accomplish more science than would have been possible by a single entity alone. The 2018 coastwide expedition included research partners from National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), National Ocean Service (Channel Islands, Cordell Bank, Greater Farallones, and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuaries), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). Research objectives for the cruise were to: 1) Collect DSCS baseline information at 10 of the EFHCA sites undergoing protection modifications by the Pacific Fishery Management Council. 2) Collect DSCS and fish data at previously unexplored sites within West Coast National Marine Sanctuaries. 3) Revisit a subset of previously surveyed sites to document if changes in DCSC have occurred over time. 4) Collect information to validate BOEM supported cross-shelf habitat suitability models for DSCS. 5) Collect samples to help in identifying (and understanding) West Coast DSCS and expand use of new technologies (ROV, AUV, and environmental DNA [eDNA]). 6) Collect water samples for coastwide eDNA, nutrient, and carbon chemistry studies.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2015

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Regional Environmental Change↗
USGS2011

Assessment of field-related influences on polychlorinated biphenyl exposures and sorbent amendment using polychaete bioassays and passive sampler measurements

Field-related influences on polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure were evaluated by employing caged deposit-feeders, Neanthes arenaceodentata, along with polyoxymethylene (POM) samplers using parallel in situ and ex situ bioassays with homogenized untreated or activated carbon (AC) amended sediment. The AC amendment achieved a remedial efficiency in reducing bioaccumulation by 90% in the laboratory and by 44% in the field transplants. In situ measurements showed that PCB uptake by POM samplers was greater for POM placed in the surface sediment compared with the underlying AC amendment, suggesting that tidal exchange of surrounding material with similar PCB availability as untreated sediment was redeposited in the cages. Polychlorinated biphenyls bioaccumulation with caged polychaetes from untreated sediment was half as large under field conditions compared with laboratory conditions. A biodynamic model was used to confirm and quantify the different processes that could have influenced these results. Three factors appeared most influential in the bioassays: AC amendment significantly reduces bioavailability under laboratory and field conditions; sediment deposition within test cages in the field partially masks the remedial benefit of underlying AC-amended sediment; and deposit-feeders exhibit less PCB uptake from untreated sediment when feeding is reduced. Ex situ and in situ experiments inevitably show some differences that are associated with measurement methods and effects of the environment. Parallel ex situ and in situ bioassays, passive sampler measurements, and quantifying important processes with a model can tease apart these field influences.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2023

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Emerging diseases can have devastating consequences for wildlife and require a rapid response. A critical first step towards developing appropriate management is identifying the etiology of the disease, which can be difficult to determine, particularly early in emergence. Gathering and synthesizing existing information about potential disease causes, by leveraging expert knowledge or relevant existing studies, provides a principled approach to quickly inform decision-making and management efforts. Additionally, updating the current state of knowledge as more information becomes available over time can reduce scientific uncertainty and lead to substantial improvement in the decision-making process and the application of management actions that incorporate and adapt to newly acquired scientific understanding. Here we present a rapid prototyping method for quantifying belief weights for competing hypotheses about the etiology of disease using a combination of formal expert elicitation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We illustrate the application of this approach for investigating the etiology of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and discuss the opportunities and challenges of this approach for addressing emergent diseases. Lastly, we detail how our work may apply to other pressing management or conservation problems that require quick responses. We found the rapid prototyping methods to be an efficient and rapid means to narrow down the number of potential hypotheses, synthesize current understanding, and help prioritize future studies and experiments. This approach is rapid by providing a snapshot assessment of the current state of knowledge. It can also be updated periodically (e.g., annually) to assess changes in belief weights over time as scientific understanding increases. Synthesis and applications: The rapid prototyping approaches demonstrated here can be used to combine knowledge from multiple experts and/or studies to help with fast decision-making needed for urgent conservation issues including emerging diseases and other management problems that require rapid responses. These approaches can also be used to adjust belief weights over time as studies and expert knowledge accumulate and can be a helpful tool for adapting management decisions.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2004

Suwannee river basin and estuary integrated science workshop: September 22-24, 2004 Cedar Key, Florida

In response to the growing number of environmental concerns in the mostly pristine Suwannee River Basin and the Suwannee River Estuary system, the States of Florida and Georgia, the Federal government, and other local organizations have identified the Suwannee River as an ecosystem in need of protection because of its unique biota and important water resources. Organizations with vested interests in the region formed a coalition, the Suwannee Basin Interagency Alliance (SBIA), whose goals are to promote coordination in the identification, management, and scientific knowledge of the natural resources in the basin and estuary. To date, an integrated assessment of the physical, biological, and water resources has not been completed. A holistic, multi-disciplinary approach is being pursued to address the research needs in the basin and estuary and to provide supportive data for meeting management objectives of the entire ecosystem. The USGS is well situated to focus on the larger concerns of the basin and estuary by addressing specific research questions linking water supply and quality to ecosystem function and health across county and state boundaries. A strategic plan is being prepared in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies to identify and implement studies to address the most compelling research issues and management questions, and to conduct fundamental environmental monitoring studies. The USGS, Suwannee River Water Management District and the Florida Marine Research Institute are co-sponsoring this scientific workshop on the Suwannee River Basin and Estuary to: Discuss current and past research findings, Identify information gaps and research priorities, and Develop an action plan for coordinated and relevant research activities in the future. This workshop builds on the highly successful basin-wide conference sponsored by the Suwannee Basin Interagency Alliance that was held three years ago in Live Oak, Florida. This years workshop will focus on identifying information needs and priorities and developing partnerships. The USGS is seeking to define the role of the USGS Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) in conducting integrated research in the Suwannee River Basin, and to establish a cooperative program with other agencies. Participants interested in river, floodplain, springs, estuary, or basin-wide issues are encouraged to attend. Topics for this years workshop include: Water quality and geochemistry: nutrient enrichment, reduction of nutrient loading to ground water, contaminants, and land use, Hydrogeology: interactions among ground water, surface water and ecosystem, modeling, and baseline mapping, Ecosystem dynamics: structure, process, species, and habitats (estuarine, riverine, floodplain, and wetland), and Information management: data sharing, database development, geographic information system (GIS), and basin-wide models.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Data to support statistical modeling of instream nutrient load based on watershed attributes, southeastern United States, 2002

This report presents and describes the digital datasets that characterize nutrient source inputs, environmental characteristics, and instream nutrient loads for the purpose of calibrating and applying a nutrient water-quality model for the southeastern United States for 2002. The model area includes all of the river basins draining to the south Atlantic and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as well as the Tennessee River basin (referred to collectively as the SAGT area). The water-quality model SPARROW (SPAtially-Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, uses a regression equation to describe the relation between watershed attributes (predictors) and measured instream loads (response). Watershed attributes that are considered to describe nutrient input conditions and are tested in the SPARROW model for the SAGT area as source variables include atmospheric deposition, fertilizer application to farmland, manure from livestock production, permitted wastewater discharge, and land cover. Watershed and channel attributes that are considered to affect rates of nutrient transport from land to water and are tested in the SAGT SPARROW model as nutrient-transport variables include characteristics of soil, landform, climate, reach time of travel, and reservoir hydraulic loading. Datasets with estimates of each of these attributes for each individual reach or catchment in the reach-catchment network are presented in this report, along with descriptions of methods used to produce them. Measurements of nutrient water quality at stream monitoring sites from a combination of monitoring programs were used to develop observations of the response variable - mean annual nitrogen or phosphorus load - in the SPARROW regression equation. Instream load of nitrogen and phosphorus was estimated using bias-corrected log-linear regression models using the program Fluxmaster, which provides temporally detrended estimates of long-term mean load well-suited for spatial comparisons. The detrended, or normalized, estimates of load are useful for regional-scale assessments but should be used with caution for local-scale interpretations, for which use of loads estimated for actual time periods and employing more detailed regression analysis is suggested. The mean value of the nitrogen yield estimates, normalized to 2002, for 637 stations in the SAGT area is 4.7 kilograms per hectare; the mean value of nitrogen flow-weighted mean concentration is 1.2 milligrams per liter. The mean value of the phosphorus yield estimates, normalized to 2002, for the 747 stations in the SAGT area is 0.66 kilogram per hectare; the mean value of phosphorus flow-weighted mean concentration is 0.17 milligram per liter. Nutrient conditions measured in streams affected by substantial influx or outflux of water and nutrient mass across surface-water basin divides do not reflect nutrient source and transport conditions in the topographic watershed; therefore, inclusion of such streams in the SPARROW modeling approach is considered inappropriate. River basins identified with this concern include south Florida (where surface-water flow paths have been extensively altered) and the Oklawaha, Crystal, Lower Sante Fe, Lower Suwanee, St. Marks, and Chipola River basins in central and northern Florida (where flow exchange with the underlying regional aquifer may represent substantial nitrogen influx to and outflux from the surface-water basins).

Open-File Report↗
USGS2015

An updated conceptual model of Delta Smelt biology: Our evolving understanding of an estuarine fish

The main purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment and conceptual model of factors affecting Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) throughout its primarily annual life cycle and to demonstrate how this conceptual model can be used for scientific and management purposes. The Delta Smelt is a small estuarine fish that only occurs in the San Francisco Estuary. Once abundant, it is now rare and has been protected under the federal and California Endangered Species Acts since 1993. The Delta Smelt listing was related to a step decline in the early 1980s; however, population abundance decreased even further with the onset of the “pelagic organism decline” (POD) around 2002. A substantial, albeit short-lived, increase in abundance of all life stages in 2011 showed that the Delta Smelt population can still rebound when conditions are favorable for spawning, growth, and survival. In this report, we update previous conceptual models for Delta Smelt to reflect new data and information since the release of the last synthesis report about the POD by the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary (IEP) in 2010. Specific objectives include: 1. Provide decision makers with a practical tool for evaluating difficult trade-offs associated with management and policy decisions. 2. Provide scientists with a framework from which they can formulate and evaluate hypotheses using qualitative or quantitative models. 3. Provide the general public with a new way of learning about Delta Smelt and their habitat. Our updated conceptual model describes the habitat conditions and ecosystem drivers affecting each Delta Smelt life stage, across seasons and how the seasonal effects contribute to the annual success of the species. The conceptual model consists of two nested and linked levels of increasing specificity. The general life cycle conceptual model for four Delta Smelt life stages (adults, eggs and larvae, juveniles, and subadults) includes stationary ecosystem components and dynamic environmental drivers, habitat attributes, and Delta Smelt responses. The more detailed life stage transition conceptual models for each of the four Delta Smelt life stages describe relationships between environmental drivers, key habitat attributes, and the responses of Delta Smelt to habitat attributes as they transition from one life stage to the next. Our analyses and conceptual model show that good larval recruitment is essential for setting the stage for a strong year class; however, increased growth and survival through subsequent life stages are also needed to achieve and sustain higher population abundance. We used our conceptual model to generate 16 hypotheses about the factors that may have contributed to the 2011 increase in Delta Smelt relative abundance. We then evaluated these hypotheses by comparing habitat conditions and Delta Smelt responses in the wet year 2011 to those in the prior wet year 2006 and in the drier years 2005 and 2010. Larval recruitment was similarly high in both wet years and lower in the drier antecedent years, but juvenile and adult abundance increased only in 2011. In 2005 and 2006, the population was limited by very poor survival from the larval to the juvenile life stage. We found that in 2011, Delta Smelt may have benefitted from a combination of favorable habitat conditions throughout the year, including: 1. Adults and larvae benefitted from prolonged cool spring water temperatures, high 2011 winter and spring outflows which reduced entrainment risk and possibly improved other habitat conditions, and possibly enhanced food availability in late spring. 2. Juveniles benefitted from cool water temperatures in late spring and early summer as well as from improved food availability and low levels of harmful Microcystis. 3. Subadults also benefitted from improved food availability and from favorable habitat conditions in the large, low salinity zone (salinity 1-6) located more toward Suisun Bay,

California↗
USGS2022

Grassy–herbaceous land moderates regional climate effects on honey bee colonies in the Northcentral US

The lack of seasonally sustained floral resources (i.e. pollen and nectar) is considered a primary global threat to pollinator health. However, the ability to predict the abundance of flowering resources for pollinators based upon climate, weather, and land cover is difficult due to insufficient monitoring over adequate spatial and temporal scales. Here we use spatiotemporally distributed honey bee hive scales that continuously measure hive weights as a standardized method to assess nectar intake. We analyze late summer colony weight gain as the response variable in a random forest regression model to determine the importance of climate, weather, and land cover on honey bee colony productivity. Our random forest model predicted resource acquisition by honey bee colonies with 71% accuracy, highlighting the detrimental effects of warm, wet regions in the Northcentral United States on nectar intake, as well as the detrimental effect of years with high growing degree day accumulation. Our model also predicted that grassy–herbaceous natural land had a positive effect on the summer nectar flow and that large areas of natural grassy–herbaceous land around apiaries can moderate the detrimental effects of warm, wet climates. These patterns characterize multi-scale ecological processes that constrain the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. That is, broad climate conditions constrain regional floral communities, while land use and weather act to further modify the quantity and quality of pollinator nutritional resources. Observing such broad-scale trends demonstrates the potential for utilizing hive scales to monitor the effects of climate change on landscape-level floral resources for pollinators. The interaction of climate and land use also present an opportunity to manage for climate-resilient landscapes that support pollinators through abundant floral resources under climate change.

Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylva↗
USGS2019

Spatial and temporal variability of harmful algal blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, May through November 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), completed a study to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake, Kansas, over a range of environmental conditions at various time scales (hours to months). A better understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacteria and microcystin will inform sampling and management strategies for Milford Lake and for other lakes with cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB) issues throughout the Nation. Spatial and temporal variability were assessed in the upstream one-third of Milford Lake (designated as “Zone C” by KDHE) during May through November 2016 using a combination of time-lapse photography, continuous water-quality monitors, discrete phytoplankton, chlorophyll, and microcystin samples, and spatially dense near-surface data. Combined, these data were used to characterize variability of cyanobacterial abundance, algal biomass, and microcystin concentrations in Zone C of Milford Lake before, during, and after cyanobacterial blooms in 2016. Temporal patterns were evaluated during May through November 2016 using time-lapse photography at six locations in Zone C and at a single point location (the Wakefield site) using a combination of discrete and continuously measured water-quality data (including the cyanobacterial pigment phycocyanin). Based on time-lapse photography, CyanoHABs developed in Zone C of Milford Lake in early July and persisted through the end of November. Bloom accumulations at individual sites were dependent on wind direction. After a change in wind direction, it would take about 1 day for accumulations to become visible at different locations. During periods with low wind, accumulations were widespread and visible at all sites. Cyanobacteria were absent from the algal community at the Wakefield site in late May and were a minor component of the community in June; however, by mid-July the cyanobacteria were dominant and remained dominant until early November. Chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site were estimated using sensor-measured phycocyanin based on regression models developed for Zone C. Regression-estimated concentrations likely are more indicative of seasonal patterns in algal biomass (as indicated by chlorophyll concentrations) and microcystin than discretely collected samples because regression-estimated data have a much higher temporal resolution. Based on regression estimates, algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site steadily increased from May through August. After August, concentrations decreased but remained relatively high compared to May and June. Daily chlorophyll maxima were as much as 400 times higher than daily minima, and daily microcystin maxima were as many as several orders of magnitude higher than daily minima. The extreme variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations at the Wakefield site reflects the development and dissipation of blooms, as indicated by the time-lapse cameras. Based on regression-estimated microcystin concentrations, the KDHE watch and warning thresholds for microcystin were exceeded during mid-June through late November. Exceedance of KDHE advisory thresholds often changed from no advisory to watch or warning over the course of the day because of the variability in algal biomass and microcystin concentrations caused by bloom development and dissipation. Continuous water-quality monitors may be useful in informing public-health decisions in lakes with variable CyanoHAB conditions; however, site-specific models need to be developed, and best practices for using continuous water-quality monitors to inform CyanoHAB management strategies need to be established. Spatial data were collected on May 26, July 21, and September 15, 2016, using a combination of a boat-mounted array and discrete water-quality samples analyzed for phytoplankton community composition and chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. Spatial patterns were described using regression-estimated chlorophyll and microcystin concentrations. During the May 26, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances were relatively low throughout Zone C and did not exceed KDHE guidance values compared to spatial surveys on July 21 and September 15. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass uplake in Zone C, and decreases in the downlake direction towards Zone B. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations also were more variable uplake than downlake. Based on regression estimates, microcystin concentrations did not exceed KDHE guidance values anywhere in Zone C on May 26. Spatial patterns in microcystin throughout Zone C did not match patterns in regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, likely because the algal community was not dominated by cyanobacteria at most locations in May. During the July 21, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances in Zone C exceeded KDHE guidance values in 50 percent of samples. The algal community in Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria at all locations except two, where cyanobacteria codominated with diatoms. Both locations where cyanobacteria and diatoms codominated were north of the causeway. Regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations were indicative of higher algal biomass north of the causeway and on the eastern shore of Zone C. On July 21, algal biomass did not always decrease in the downlake direction. There was a decrease just south of the causeway but an increase shortly after with higher concentrations into Zone B. Spatial maps indicated changes in algal distribution at a 0.5-meter depth, with algae moving to the central part of the lake north of the causeway and along the eastern shore south of the causeway. Most regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on July 21 exceeded KDHE guidance values, reflecting the pervasive bloom conditions in Zone C during this period. Spatial patterns in regression-estimated microcystin concentrations throughout Zone C were similar to patterns seen in discrete samples and regression-estimated chlorophyll concentrations, with higher concentrations north of the causeway and on the east shore of Zone C. During the September 15, 2016, spatial surveys, cyanobacterial abundances did not exceed KDHE guidance values. The algal community north of the causeway was dominated by diatoms. The algal community throughout the rest of Zone C was dominated by cyanobacteria. Of regression-estimated microcystin concentrations on September 15, 80 percent did not exceed KDHE guidance values. Spatial patterns indicated northward movement of the cyanobacterial bloom consistent with a wind shift noted the previous day. On September 14, winds were generally from the north to northwest, shifting to the south by September 15. There was a northward progression of chlorophyll and microcystin during the spatial surveys. These data, along with the camera data and spatial and wind data from May and July, indicate that wind can be a major driver of the spatial and temporal variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Milford Lake and likely plays a role in the extent and duration of near-shore accumulations.

Kansas↗
USGS2018

Assessment of dissolved-selenium concentrations and loads in the lower Gunnison River Basin, Colorado, as part of the Selenium Management Program, from 2011 to 2016

The Gunnison Basin Selenium Management Program implemented a water-quality monitoring network in 2011 in the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado. Selenium is a trace element that bioaccumulates in aquatic food chains and can cause reproductive failure, deformities, and other harmful effects. This report presents the percentile values of selenium because regulatory agencies in Colorado make decisions based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Clean Water Act Section 303(d) that uses percentile values of concentration. Also presented are dissolved-selenium loads at 18 sites in the lower Gunnison River Basin for water years (WYs) 2011–2016 (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2016). Annual dissolved-selenium loads were calculated for five sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. Annual dissolved-selenium loads for WY 2011 through WY 2016 ranged from 179 and 391 pounds (lb) at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 11,100 and 17,300 lb at Gunnison River near Grand Junction (herein called Whitewater), respectively. Instantaneous loads were calculated for five sites with continuous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and 13 ancillary sites where discrete water-quality sampling also took place, using discrete water-quality samples and the associated discharge measurements collected during the period. Median instantaneous loads ranged from 0.01 pound per day (lb/d) at Smith Fork near Lazear to 33.0 lb/d at Whitewater. Mean instantaneous loads ranged from 0.06 lb/d at Smith Fork near Lazear to 36.2 lb/d at Whitewater. Most tributary sites in the basin had a median instantaneous dissolved-selenium load of less than 20.0 lb/day. In general, dissolved-selenium loads at Gunnison River main-stem sites showed an increase from upstream to downstream. The State of Colorado water-quality standard for dissolved selenium of 4.6 micrograms per liter (µg/L) was compared to the 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium at selected sites. Annual 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium were calculated for the five core sites having USGS streamflow-gaging stations using estimated dissolved-selenium concentrations from linear regression models. The 85th-percentile concentrations for WYs 2011–2016 based on this method ranged from 0.62 µg/L and 1.1µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Colona to 12.1 µg/L and 18.7 µg/L at Uncompahgre River at Delta. The 85th percentiles for dissolved selenium also were calculated for sites with sufficient data using water-quality samples collected during WYs 2011–2016. The annual 85th-percentile concentrations based on the discrete samples ranged from 0.16 µg/L and 0.17 µg/L at Gunnison River below Gunnison Tunnel to 62.2 µg/L and 170 µg/L at Loutzenhizer Arroyo at North River Road. A trend analysis was completed for Whitewater to determine if dissolved-selenium loads are increasing or decreasing. The trend analysis indicates a decrease of 9,100 lb from WY 1986 to WY 2016, a 40.8 percent reduction during the time period. The trend analysis for the annual dissolved-selenium load for WY 1994 to WY 2016 indicates a decrease of 6,300 lb per year, or 33.3 percent.

Colorado↗
USGS2013

Improving sediment-quality guidelines for nickel: development and application of predictive bioavailability models to assess chronic toxicity of nickel in freshwater sediments

Within the framework of European Union chemical legislations an extensive data set on the chronic toxicity of sediment nickel has been generated. In the initial phase of testing, tests were conducted with 8 taxa of benthic invertebrates in 2 nickel-spiked sediments, including 1 reasonable worst-case sediment with low concentrations of acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) and total organic carbon. The following species were tested: amphipods ( Hyalella azteca , Gammarus pseudolimnaeus ), mayflies ( Hexagenia sp.), oligochaetes ( Tubifex tubifex , Lumbriculus variegatus ), mussels ( Lampsilis siliquoidea ), and midges ( Chironomus dilutus , Chironomus riparius ). In the second phase, tests were conducted with the most sensitive species in 6 additional spiked sediments, thus generating chronic toxicity data for a total of 8 nickel-spiked sediments. A species sensitivity distribution was elaborated based on 10% effective concentrations yielding a threshold value of 94 mg Ni/kg dry weight under reasonable worst-case conditions. Data from all sediments were used to model predictive bioavailability relationships between chronic toxicity thresholds (20% effective concentrations) and AVS and Fe, and these models were used to derive site-specific sediment-quality criteria. Normalization of toxicity values reduced the intersediment variability in toxicity values significantly for the amphipod species Hyalella azteca and G. pseudolimnaeus , but these relationships were less clearly defined for the mayfly Hexagenia sp. Application of the models to prevailing local conditions resulted in threshold values ranging from 126 mg to 281 mg Ni/kg dry weight, based on the AVS model, and 143 mg to 265 mg Ni/kg dry weight, based on the Fe model

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗
USGS2009

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗