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At least 1,405 records · Page 78Linked to original sources

USGS2011

New insights of tsunami hazard from the 2011 Tohoku-oki event

We report initial results from our recent field survey documenting the inundation and resultant deposits of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami from Sendai Plain, Japan. The tsunami inundated up to 4.5 km inland but the > 0.5 cm-thick sand deposit extended only 2.8 km (62% of the inundation distance). The deposit however continued as a mud layer to the inundation limit. The mud deposit contained high concentrations of water-leachable chloride and we conclude that geochemical markers and microfossil data may prove to be useful in identifying the maximum inundation limit of paleotsunamis that could extend well beyond any preserved sand layer. Our newly acquired data on the 2011 event suggest that previous estimates of paleotsunamis (e.g. 869 AD Jōgan earthquake and tsunami) in this area have probably been underestimated. If the 2011 and 869 AD events are indeed comparable, the risk from these natural hazards in Japan is much greater than previously recognized.

Sendai Plain↗

USGS2010

Neogene contraction between the San Andreas fault and the Santa Clara Valley, San Francisco Bay region, California

In the southern San Francisco Bay region of California, oblique dextral reverse faults that verge northeastward from the San Andreas fault experienced triggered slip during the 1989 M7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. The role of these range-front thrusts in the evolution of the San Andreas fault system and the future seismic hazard that they may pose to the urban Santa Clara Valley are poorly understood. Based on recent geologic mapping and geophysical investigations, we propose that the range-front thrust system evolved in conjunction with development of the San Andreas fault system. In the early Miocene, the region was dominated by a system of northwestwardly propagating, basin-bounding, transtensional faults. Beginning as early as middle Miocene time, however, the transtensional faulting was superseded by transpressional NE-stepping thrust and reverse faults of the range-front thrust system. Age constraints on the thrust faults indicate that the locus of contraction has focused on the Monte Vista, Shannon, and Berrocal faults since about 4.8 Ma. Fault slip and fold reconstructions suggest that crustal shortening between the San Andreas fault and the Santa Clara Valley within this time frame is ∼21%, amounting to as much as 3.2 km at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr. Rates probably have not remained constant; average rates appear to have been much lower in the past few 100 ka. The distribution of coseismic surface contraction during the Loma Prieta earthquake, active seismicity, late Pleistocene to Holocene fluvial terrace warping, and geodetic data further suggest that the active range-front thrust system includes blind thrusts. Critical unresolved issues include information on the near-surface locations of buried thrusts, the timing of recent thrust earthquake events, and their recurrence in relation to earthquakes on the San Andreas fault.

California↗

USGS2023

Active volcanism on the Arabian Shield—Geology, volcanology, and geophysics of northern Harrat Rahat and vicinity, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Active volcanic systems pose serious hazards to people and property including inundation and incineration by lava, blanketing by tephra (volcanic ash), exposure to noxious volcanic gases, and damage from shallow earthquakes triggered by ascending molten material (magma). To improve understanding of volcanism and associated seismicity on the western Arabia Plate, the Saudi Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a multi-year investigation of the northern Harrat Rahat volcanic field adjacent to the city of Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Project components included creation of a high-resolution digital topographic base; interpretation of eruptive history supported by detailed geologic mapping, paleomagnetism, and abundant high-precision geochronology of volcanic deposits; assessments of eruptive styles and volcanic hazards by physical volcanology; investigation of the origins of magmas in the mantle and of their differentiation in the crust revealed by chemical and isotopic petrology; gravity and magnetotelluric surveys to reveal crustal structures and to search for magma reservoirs; and regional and local seismic tomography and analyses of seismic hazards. Project results are presented in this Professional Paper as chapters written for technical scientific audiences.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2023

The Saudi Geological Survey-U.S. Geological Survey northern Harrat Rahat project—Styles, rates, causes, and hazards of volcanism near Al Madīnah al Munawwarah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Al Madīnah al Munawwarah↗

USGS2025

Estimated average annualized tsunami losses for the United States

Tsunami hazards are substantial threats to coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) and its territories. U.S. states and territories collaborate through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to develop their own tsunami-hazard information for outreach and evacuation planning. An effort to curate this tsunami-hazard information to support comprehensive risk analysis at the national level has not yet been completed. In support of this effort, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) collaborated with the NTHMP, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) starting in 2023. This collaboration included the collection and analysis of existing tsunami hazard data and methods in the U.S. Tsunami subject matter experts identified and selected scientifically defensible methods for estimating the risks to buildings and populations in coastal communities. These efforts may support decision making regarding resilience policies, priorities, strategies and funding levels. Tsunamis can be triggered by earthquakes, subaerial or submarine landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather or other events. These events can cause severe destruction, injuries, and loss of life due to powerful currents and flooding. Tsunamis pose a substantial threat to the western United States and all U.S. territories, as described below. ■ Hawaii is threatened by distant tsunamis due to its central location in the Pacific Ocean basin and has a history of local events. ■ Alaska, particularly the Aleutian Islands, faces local tsunami threats due to proximity to the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone, as well as distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin. ■ The western coast of the U.S. is threatened by distant tsunamis from around the Pacific Ocean basin and local source tsunamis from earthquakes generated within the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. ■ American Samoa faces local tsunami threats from earthquakes generated in the nearby Tonga Trench, as well as distant tsunami threats. ■ Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands are threatened by local tsunamis from the nearby Mariana Subduction Zone, as well as distant sources from around the Pacific Ocean Basin. ■ Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are threatened by multiple local and distant tsunami sources, such as the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT), given their location in the complex seismic region of the Caribbean Sea. Several historical events stand out because of their catastrophic impacts. ■ In the Pacific Northwest, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake caused a tsunami that affected coastal Native American communities, though the extent of the damage is not fully documented (Ludwin, et al., 2005). ■ In Puerto Rico, the 1918 earthquake triggered a tsunami that caused $77 million in damage in 2022 dollars and 116 fatalities, primarily along the western coast (Coffman et al., 1982). ■ The 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake triggered a massive tsunami that devastated Hilo, Hawaii, killing 158 people and resulting in approximately $375 million in damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Fisher et al., 2023). ■ The 1964 Alaska earthquake (M 9.2) generated tsunamis that caused severe destruction in some communities across Alaska, Oregon, and California. This disaster led to a total of 124 fatalities and approximately $2.9 billion in property damage (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (Brocher et al., 2014) (Alaska Science Center, 2024). ■ In American Samoa, a tsunami generated by the 2009 Samoa earthquake (Mw 8.1) caused widespread devastation, resulting in 34 confirmed fatalities (Apatu et al., 2013) and economic losses exceeding $160 million (adjusted to 2022 dollars) (DHS, 2011). More recent events, including the 2010 Chile earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption, resulted in millions of dollars in damage to numerous ports and harbors in the U.S. South Pacific territories, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the U.S. (Lynett, et al., 2022) (Wilson, et al., 2013). Since these events, the expansion of the built environment in lowlying areas along the coast has increased the exposure of buildings and people, thereby further escalating community risk from tsunamis. This report provides a comprehensive national assessment of earthquake-generated tsunami risk. It does not include impacts from tsunamis generated by landslides, volcanic eruptions, glacial calving, near-earth objects, weather, or other events. This study is based on the best available hazard data from the U.S. Pacific Coast (California, Oregon and Washington), Alaska, Hawaii, U.S. Pacific Territories (American Samoa, Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands) and Caribbean Territories (Puerto Rico and United States Virgin Islands). Tsunami risks associated with states along the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Great Lakes are not included in this study because Hazus 6.1 software (FEMA 2024a) does not currently include the ability to analyze tsunami risk in those states. Once modeling capabilities and tsunami hazard data become available for additional states, FEMA may incorporate these data into future editions of this study.

Alaska, California, Hawaii Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2022

Long-term ocean observing for international capacity development around tsunami early warning

The 2004 magnitude (M) 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake in the Indian Ocean triggered the deadliest tsunami ever, killing more than 230,000 people. In response, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) established three additional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs) for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System: for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS), for the Indian Ocean, and for the Northeastern Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Connected Seas. Along with the ICG for the Pacific Ocean, which was established in 1965, one of the goals of the new ICGs was to improve earthquake and tsunami monitoring and early warning. This need was further demonstrated by the 2011 Great East Japan (Tōhoku-oki) earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people, and other destructive tsunamis that occurred in the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Chile, Indonesia, and Peru. In response to the call to action by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), as well as the desired safe ocean outcome (von Hillebrandt-Andrade et al., 2021), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO approved the Ocean Decade Tsunami Programme in June 2021. One of its goals is to develop the capability to issue actionable alerts for tsunamis from all sources with minimum uncertainty within 10 minutes (Angove et al., 2019). While laudable, this goal presents complexities. Currently, warning depends on quick detection as well as the location and initial magnitude estimates of an earthquake that may generate a tsunami. Other factors that affect tsunamis, such as the faulting mechanism (how the faults slide past each other) and areal extent of the earthquake, currently take at least 20–30 minutes to forecast and are still subject to large uncertainties. Hence, agencies charged with tsunami early warning need to broadcast public alerts within minutes after an earthquake occurs but may struggle to meet this 10-minute goal without further technological advances, some of which are outlined in this article. To reduce loss of life through adequate tsunami warning requires global ocean-based seismic, sea level, and geodetic initiatives to detect high-impact earthquakes and tsunamis, combined with sufficient communication and education so that people know how to respond when they receive alerts and warnings. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction defines an early warning system as “a set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities, and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss” (UNISDR, 2012). In short, a successful early warning system requires technology coupled with human factors (Kelman and Glantz, 2014). In this article, we explore case studies from Japan and Canada, where scientists are leading the way in incorporating ocean observing capabilities in their early warning systems. We also explore advancements and challenges in the Caribbean, an area with a complex tectonic environment that would benefit greatly from increased global ocean observing capabilities. We also explore physical and social science interventions necessary to reduce loss of life.

Oceanography↗

USGS2007

Deep faulting and structural reactivation beneath the southern Illinois basin

The investigation of deep fault structure and seismogenesis within "stable" continental interiors has been hindered by the paucity of detailed subsurface information and by low levels of seismicity. Outstanding seismotectonic questions for these areas include whether pre-existing structures govern the release of seismic energy as earthquakes, can reactivation of such structures be recognized, and to what extent have Precambrian basement structures exerted long-lived controls on the development of overlying Phanerozoic features. The southern portion of the Illinois basin provides a premier area in which to study the relation between contemporary seismicity and pre-existing structures due to the frequency of seismic events, the concentration of available geophysical data, and the wealth of borehole information. We have integrated the study of this information in order to create a 2.5-dimensional picture of the earth for local seismogenic depths (0-15 km) for a study area of moderate 20th century earthquake activity. The area is located along the western flanks of two of the major structures within the Illinois basin, the Wabash Valley fault system (WVFS) and the La Salle anticlinal belt (LSA). The results of reprocessing seismic reflection profiles, combined with earthquake hypocenter parameters, suggest three distinct seismotectonic environments in the upper crust. First, we have delineated a fault pattern that appears to correspond to the steep nodal plane of a strike-slip mechanism event (1974.04.03; mb = 4.7). The fault pattern is interpreted to be a deeply buried rift zone or zone of intense normal faulting underpinning a major Paleozoic depocenter of the Illinois basin (Fairfield basin). Second, a similar event (1987.06.10; mb = 5.2) and its well-located aftershocks define a narrow zone of deformation that occurs along and parallel to the frontal thrust of the LSA. Third, the hypocenter of the largest event in the study area (1968.11.09; mb = 5.5) may be spatially associated with a prominent zone of dipping middle crustal reflections, just west of the WVFS, which have been interpreted as a deeply buried blind thrust. The proposed correlation of pre-existing structures with earthquakes having consistently oriented structural parameters supports the reactivation of old deformation zones by contemporary stresses as previously proposed by earlier workers. However, the degree to which deformation has propagated upward from Precambrian basement into the Paleozoic rocks varied significantly even over a small study area. The societal value of associating an earthquake with a specific pre-existing deformation zone in the seismogenic crust is to improve the assessment of seismic hazard or to assess the integrity of a stratigraphic formation, being considered as a target for natural gas storage or carbon sequestration. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precambrian Research↗

USGS2001

Dynamics of carbon dioxide emission at Mammoth Mountain, California

Mammoth Mountain, a dormant volcano in the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, has been passively degassing large quantities of cold magmatic CO2 since 1990 following a 6-month-long earthquake swarm associated with a shallow magmatic intrussion in 1989. A search for any link between gas discharge and volcanic hazard at this popular recreation area led us to initiate a detailed study of the degassing process in 1997. Our continuous monitoring results elucidate some of the physical controls that influence dynamics in flank CO2 degassing at this volcano. High coherence between variations in CO2 efflux and variations in atmospheric pressure and wind speed imply that meteorological parameters account for much, if not all of the variability in CO2 efflux rates. Our results help explain differences among previously published estimates of CO2 efflux at Mammoth Mountain and indicate that the long-term (annual) CO2 degassing rate has in fact remained constant since ~ 1997. Discounting the possibility of large meteorologically driven temporal variations in gas efflux at other volcanoes may result in spurious interpretations of transients do not reflect actual geologic processes. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2002

CPT site characterization for seismic hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone

A series of cone penetration tests (CPTs) were conducted in the vicinity of the New Madrid seismic zone in central USA for quantifying seismic hazards, obtaining geotechnical soil properties, and conducting studies at liquefaction sites related to the 1811–1812 and prehistoric New Madrid earthquakes. The seismic piezocone provides four independent measurements for delineating the stratigraphy, liquefaction potential, and site amplification parameters. At the same location, two independent assessments of soil liquefaction susceptibility can be made using both the normalized tip resistance ( q c1N ) and shear wave velocity ( V s1 ). In lieu of traditional deterministic approaches, the CPT data can be processed using probability curves to assess the level and likelihood of future liquefaction occurrence.

Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee↗

USGS2024

Rapid estimation of single-station earthquake magnitudes with machine learning on a global scale

The foundation of earthquake monitoring is the ability to rapidly detect, locate, and estimate the size of seismic sources. Earthquake magnitudes are particularly difficult to rapidly characterize because magnitude types are only applicable to specific magnitude ranges, and location errors propagate to substantial magnitude errors. We developed a method for rapid estimation of single‐station earthquake magnitudes using raw three‐component P waveforms observed at local to teleseismic distances, independent of prior size or location information. We used the MagNet regression model architecture ( Mousavi and Beroza, 2020b ), which combines convolutional and recurrent neural networks. We trained our model using ∼2.4 million P ‐phase arrivals labeled by the authoritative magnitude assigned by the U.S. Geological Survey. We tested input data parameters (e.g., window length) that could affect the performance of our model in near‐real‐time monitoring applications. At the longest waveform window length of 114 s, our model (Artificial Intelligence Magnitude [AIMag]) is accurate (median estimated magnitude within ±0.5 magnitude units from catalog magnitude) between M 2.3 and 7.6. However, magnitudes above M ∼7 are more underestimated as true magnitude increases. As the windows are shortened down to 1 s, the point at which higher magnitudes begin to be underestimated moves toward lower magnitudes, and the degree of underestimation increases. The over and underestimation of magnitudes for the smallest and largest earthquakes, respectively, are potentially related to the limited number of events in these ranges within the training data, as well as magnitude saturation effects related to not capturing the full source time function of large earthquakes. Importantly, AIMag can determine earthquake magnitudes with individual stations’ waveforms without instrument response correction or knowledge of an earthquake’s source‐station distance. This work may enable monitoring agencies to more rapidly recognize large, potentially tsunamigenic global earthquakes from few stations, allowing for faster event processing and reporting. This is critical for timely warnings for seismic‐related hazards.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2008

Bedrock Geologic Map of the Greater Lefkosia Area, Cyprus

The island of Cyprus has a long historical record of earthquakes that have damaged pre-Roman to modern human settlements. Because the recurrent damaging earthquakes can have a significant economic and social impact on Cyprus, this project was initiated to develop a seismic-hazard assessment for a roughly 400 square kilometer area centered on Cyprus' capital and largest city, whose European name is Nicosia and whose local name is Lefkosia. In addition, geologic and seismotectonic evaluations for the project extended beyond the perimeter of the geologic map. Additional structural, stratigraphic, and paleontological data were collected island-wide as well as data from literature research throughout the eastern Mediterranean region, in order to accurately place the geology and seismic hazards of the Lefkosia area in a regional tectonic framework.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS1991

The world landslide problem

Thousands of people may be killed by landslides each year and property damage may be in the tens of billions of dollars, but the techniques for recognizing and coping with landslides are well developed. Landslides are generally more manageable and predictable than earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and some storms, but only a few countries have taken advantage of this knowledge to reduce landslide hazards.

Episodes↗

USGS2014

Using surface creep rate to infer fraction locked for sections of the San Andreas fault system in northern California from alignment array and GPS data

Surface creep rate, observed along five branches of the dextral San Andreas fault system in northern California, varies considerably from one section to the next, indicating that so too may the depth at which the faults are locked. We model locking on 29 fault sections using each section’s mean long‐term creep rate and the consensus values of fault width and geologic slip rate. Surface creep rate observations from 111 short‐range alignment and trilateration arrays and 48 near‐fault, Global Positioning System station pairs are used to estimate depth of creep, assuming an elastic half‐space model and adjusting depth of creep iteratively by trial and error to match the creep observations along fault sections. Fault sections are delineated either by geometric discontinuities between them or by distinctly different creeping behaviors. We remove transient rate changes associated with five large (M≥5.5) regional earthquakes. Estimates of fraction locked, the ratio of moment accumulation rate to loading rate, on each section of the fault system provide a uniform means to inform source parameters relevant to seismic‐hazard assessment. From its mean creep rates, we infer the main branch (the San Andreas fault) ranges from only 20%±10% locked on its central creeping section to 99%–100% on the north coast. From mean accumulation rates, we infer that four urban faults appear to have accumulated enough seismic moment to produce major earthquakes: the northern Calaveras (M 6.8), Hayward (M 6.8), Rodgers Creek (M 7.1), and Green Valley (M 7.1). The latter three faults are nearing or past their mean recurrence interval.

California↗

USGS2001

Fault zone amplified waves as a possible seismic hazard along the Calaveras fault in central California

The Calaveras fault lies within a low velocity zone (LVZ) 1-2 km wide near Gilroy, California. Accelerographs G06, located in the LVZ 1.2 km from the Calaveras fault, and G07, 4 km from G06, recorded both the M 6.2 1984 Morgan Hill and the M 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes. Comparison of the ground motions shows that a large 0.6-1.0 Hz velocity pulse observed at G06 during the Morgan Hill event may be amplified by focussing caused by the LVZ. Such amplified waves might be a mappable seismic hazard, and the zone of increased hazard can extend as much as 1.2 km from the surface trace of the fault. Finite-difference simulations of ground motions in a simplified LVZ model show a zone of amplified motion similar to the observations.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2009

Broadband records of earthquakes in deep gold mines and a comparison with results from SAFOD, California

For one week during September 2007, we deployed a temporary network of field recorders and accelerometers at four sites within two deep, seismically active mines. The ground-motion data, recorded at 200 samples/sec, are well suited to determining source and ground-motion parameters for the mining-induced earthquakes within and adjacent to our network. Four earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2 were recorded with high signal/noise at all four sites. Analysis of seismic moments and peak velocities, in conjunction with the results of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, were used to estimate source processes that are key to understanding source physics and to assessing underground seismic hazard. The maximum displacements on the rupture surfaces can be estimated from the parameter , where is the peak ground velocity at a given recording site, and R is the hypocentral distance. For each earthquake, the maximum slip and seismic moment can be combined with results from laboratory friction experiments to estimate the maximum slip rate within the rupture zone. Analysis of the four M 2 earthquakes recorded during our deployment and one of special interest recorded by the in-mine seismic network in 2004 revealed maximum slips ranging from 4 to 27 mm and maximum slip rates from 1.1 to 6.3 m/sec. Applying the same analyses to an M 2.1 earthquake within a cluster of repeating earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth site, California, yielded similar results for maximum slip and slip rate, 14 mm and 4.0 m/sec.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2009

Numerical study of tsunami generated by multiple submarine slope failures in Resurrection Bay, Alaska, during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake

We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m 3 . Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation. ?? Birkh??user Verlag, Basel 2009.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region

We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The attenuation relationship for Hispaniola earthquakes and northern Lesser Antilles earthquakes is similar to that for California earthquakes, indicating a relatively rapid attenuation of damage intensity with distance. Intensities in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands decrease less rapidly with distance. We use the intensity-magnitude relationships to systematically search for the location and intensity magnitude MI which best fit all the reported damage for historical earthquakes. Many events occurred in the 20th-century along the plate-boundary segment from central Hispaniola to the NW tip of Puerto Rico, but earlier events from this segment were not identified. The remaining plate boundary to the east to Guadeloupe is probably not associated with M > 8 historical subduction-zone earthquakes. The May 2, 1787 earthquake, previously assigned an M 8–8.25, is probably only M I 6.9 and could be located north, west or SW of Puerto Rico. An M I 6.9 earthquake on July 11, 1785 was probably located north or east of the Virgin Islands. We located M I < 8 historical earthquakes on April 5, 1690, February 8, 1843, and October 8, 1974 in the northern Lesser Antilles within the arc. We speculate that the December 2, 1562 (M I 7.7) and May 7, 1842 (M I 7.6) earthquakes ruptured the Septentrional Fault in northern Hispaniola. If so, the recurrence interval on the central Septentrional Fault is ~300 years, and only 170 years has elapsed since the last event. The recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the Hispaniola subduction segment is likely longer than the historical record. Intra-arc M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes may occur every 75–100 years in the 410-km-long segment between the Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe.

Caribbean Sea↗

USGS2000

Usoi Landslide Dam and Lake Sarez – An assessment of hazard and risk in the Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan

Lake Sarez, which is located in the Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan, was created in 1911. A massive landslide, triggered by an earthquake, blocked the Murgab River valley, creating a natural dam, which was called Usoi. In 1999, the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Secretariat led a mission to assess the risk and impacts in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan including this natural phenomenon. This report presents the final results of the assessment and offers practical recommendations. The areas of coverage include: geotechnical assessment of the Usoi landslide dam and the right bank of Lake Sarez; environmental impact assessment; flood scenarios; monitoring and early warning systems; accessibility of the Bartang River valley and Usoi Dam; Human geography/demography; and social and economic conditions in the valley of the Bartang River.

Lake Sarez, Usoi Landslide Dam↗