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At least 1,405 records · Page 78Linked to original sources

Water tracks enhance water flow above permafrost in upland Arctic Alaska hillslopes

Upland permafrost regions occupy approximately one third of the Arctic landscape. In upland regions, hydrologic fluxes are influenced by water tracks, curvilinear features on hillslopes that preferentially fill with and route water in response to snowmelt and rainfall when the soil above continuous permafrost thaws in the summer. As continued warming of the Arctic may alter hydrologic cycling leading to increased frequency of extreme hydrologic events like drought and flooding as well as modification of biogeochemical cycling, it is imperative to untangle the interplay between precipitation, runoff, and subsurface flow as water is routed from upland Arctic regions to the Arctic Ocean. This study quantifies how ground surface temperatures affect groundwater discharge from hillslopes with water tracks in the upland Arctic by employing a three-dimensional, physically based subsurface flow model with variable saturation and freeze and thaw capabilities that is calibrated to field measurements from the Upper Kuparuk River watershed on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Model analysis indicates that higher ground surface temperatures along water track hillslopes promote increases in groundwater discharge where water tracks act as conduits for large recharge events and continue to discharge groundwater into the autumn after the adjacent hillslope has frozen. Simulating the conditions that distinguish water tracks from their hillslope watersheds changes subsurface water storage and ground thermal responses but does not alter the total magnitude of groundwater discharge outside of parameter uncertainty. These findings suggest that water tracks play a complex and critical role in hydrologic cycles of the upland Arctic.

Alaska↗

Drivers of methane flux differ between lakes and reservoirs, complicating global upscaling efforts

Methane is an important greenhouse gas with growing atmospheric concentrations. Freshwater lakes and reservoirs contribute substantially to atmospheric methane concentrations, but the magnitude of this contribution is poorly constrained. Uncertainty stems partially from whether the sites currently sampled represent the global population as well as incomplete knowledge of which environmental variables predict methane flux. Thus, determining the main drivers of methane flux across diverse waterbody types will inform more accurate upscaling approaches. Here we use a new database of total, diffusive, and ebullitive areal methane emissions from 313 lakes and reservoirs (ranging in surface area from 6 m 2 to 5,400 km 2 ) to identify the best predictors of methane emission. We found that the best predictors of methane emission differed by waterbody type (lakes vs. reservoirs), and that ecosystem morphometric variables (e.g., surface area and maximum depth) were more important predictors in lakes whereas metrics of autochthonous production (e.g., chlorophyll a ) were more important in reservoirs. We also found that productivity strongly predicted methane ebullition, whereas ecosystem morphometry and waterbody type were more important predictors of diffusive methane flux. Finally, we identify several knowledge gaps that limit upscaling efforts. First, we need more methane emission measurements in small reservoirs, large lakes, and both natural and artificial ponds. Additionally, more accurate upscaling efforts require improved global information about waterbody surface area, waterbody type (lake vs. reservoir), ice phenology, and the distribution of productivity‐related predictor variables such as total phosphorus, DOC, and chlorophyll a .

Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences↗

Getting to the root of plant‐mediated methane emissions and oxidation in a thermokarst bog

Vascular plants are important in the wetland methane cycle, but their effect on production, oxidation, and transport has high uncertainty, limiting our ability to predict emissions. In a permafrost‐thaw bog in Interior Alaska, we used plant manipulation treatments, field‐deployed planar optical oxygen sensors, direct measurements of methane oxidation, and microbial DNA analyses to disentangle mechanisms by which vascular vegetation affect methane emissions. Vegetation operated on top of baseline methane emissions, which varied with proximity to the thawing permafrost margin. Emissions from vegetated plots increased over the season, resulting in cumulative seasonal methane emissions that were 4.1–5.2 g m −2 season −1 greater than unvegetated plots. Mass balance calculations signify these greater emissions were due to increased methane production (3.0–3.5 g m −2 season −1 ) and decreased methane oxidation (1.1–1.6 g m −2 season −1 ). Minimal oxidation occurred along the plant‐transport pathway, and oxidation was suppressed outside the plant pathway. Our data indicate suppression of methane oxidation was stimulated by root exudates fueling competition among microbes for electron acceptors. This contention is supported by the fact that methane oxidation and relative abundance of methanotrophs decreased over the season in the presence of vegetation, but methane oxidation remained steady in unvegetated treatments; oxygen was not detected around plant roots but was detected around silicone tubes mimicking aerenchyma; and oxygen injection experiments suggested that oxygen consumption was faster in the presence of vascular vegetation. Root exudates are known to fuel methane production, and our work provides evidence they also decrease methane oxidation.

Alaska↗

Possible effects of multiphase methane evolution during a glacial cycle on underpressure development in sedimentary basins: An analysis with application to the northeast Michigan Basin

In low-permeability systems, groundwater may be accompanied by separate-phase fluids, and measured pore water pressures may deviate from those expected in steady-state, single-phase systems. These same systems may be of interest for storage of nuclear waste in Deep Geologic Repositories. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationship between the presence of a separate phase and anomalous pressure development. At the Bruce site in Southern Ontario, a significant underpressure was observed, and there is evidence for the presence of gas-phase methane in situ. This study used a one-dimensional (vertical) numerical model of the subsurface down to a depth of 844 m beneath the Bruce site to evaluate possible effects of hydromechanical coupling with multiphase flow on pressure evolution during glacial loading and unloading. The simulated pressure conditions were affected strongly by the amount of methane initially present in the system, and the maximum simulated underpressure varied nonmonotonically with increasing initial methane content. When the initial methane content was below the solubility limit, exsolution led to underpressures that briefly exceeded those that formed in the single-phase case. At intermediate initial methane contents (sufficient to produce an immobile gas phase), the gas phase dampened the hydromechanical effects of the glacial cycle. At large initial methane contents (when a mobile gas phase was present), gas migration caused a large decrease in relative liquid permeability, which further contributed to underpressure development in the pore water. Multiple scenarios that spanned a range of initial methane contents yielded underpressures like those observed at the Bruce site.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth↗

Cohesive sediment modeling in a shallow estuary: Model and environmental implications of sediment parameter variation

Numerical models of sediment transport in estuarine systems rely on parameter values that are often poorly constrained and can vary on timescales relevant to model processes. The selection of parameter values can affect the accuracy of model predictions, while environmental variation of these parameters can impact the temporal and spatial ranges of sediment fluxes, erosion, and deposition in the real world. We implemented a numerical model of San Pablo Bay, an embayment within San Francisco Bay, California, for November–December 2014, and compared model outputs to observations of water level, velocity, wave parameters, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the shallow regions. Idealized model runs show that wind timing relative to the phase of the tides is the strongest control on sediment fluxes and bed erosion. We varied sediment erodibility in the outflow of the Petaluma River; while this causes erosion and deposition to vary strongly through the shallows system, total export from the shallows does not change. Model runs with realistic winds show that wind likely resuspends faster settling particles or allows for more particle flocculation; particle settling velocity controls system-wide sediment accumulation. At the margins of the system, the magnitude of SSC is closely tied to wind direction when winds occur during flood tide, but sediment deposition is less connected: Both bed evolution and SSC need to be considered in the prediction of marsh fate. Spatial patterns of light attenuation due to SSC is strongly tied to assumed settling velocity.

California↗

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

An examination of soil crusts on the floor of Jezero crater, Mars

Martian soils are critically important for understanding the history of Mars, past potentially habitable environments, returned samples, and future human exploration. This paper examines soil crusts on the floor of Jezero crater encountered during initial phases of the Mars 2020 mission. Soil surface crusts have been observed on Mars at other locations, starting with the two Viking Lander missions. Rover observations show that soil crusts are also common across the floor of Jezero crater, revealed in 45 of 101 locations where rover wheels disturbed the soil surface, 2 out of 7 helicopter flights that crossed the wheel tracks, and 4 of 8 abrasion/drilling sites. Most soils measured by the SuperCam laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) instrument show high hydrogen content at the surface, and fine-grained soils also show a visible/near infrared (VISIR) 1.9 µm H 2 O absorption feature. The Planetary Instrument for X-ray Lithochemistry (PIXL) and SuperCam observations suggest the presence of salts at the surface of rocks and soils. The correlation of S and Cl contents with H contents in SuperCam LIBS measurements suggests that the salts present are likely hydrated. On the “Naltsos” target, magnesium and sulfur are correlated in PIXL measurements, and Mg is tightly correlated with H at the SuperCam points, suggesting hydrated Mg-sulfates. Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA) observations indicate possible frost events and potential changes in the hydration of Mg-sulfate salts. Jezero crater soil crusts may therefore form by salts that are hydrated by changes in relative humidity and frost events, cementing the soil surface together.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

Measuring erosional and depositional patterns across Comet 67P's imhotep region

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko displays a pronounced hemispherical dichotomy in surface morphology, where the southern hemisphere exhibits more erosional features than the northern hemisphere due to receiving much greater solar radiation. Consequently, it is generally assumed that particles are ejected from the southern hemisphere through sublimation and a significant fraction eventually descends as airfall, covering the northern terrains. To investigate this south-to-north material transfer during the comet's perihelion passage, we used photoclinometry to measure material redistribution within its most extensive smooth terrain deposit around the Imhotep region. However, our findings do not align with this expected trend. Instead, we show that local-scale processes substantially impact the erosion and accumulation of material, with one area experiencing net erosion while another nearby region, just a few dozen meters away, sees sediment buildup. Our analysis underscores the complex interplay of processes shaping Comet 67P's surface and likely comets more generally.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Pockmarks offshore Big Sur, California provide evidence for recurrent, regional, and unconfined sediment gravity flows

Recent surface ship multibeam surveys of the Sur Pockmark Field, offshore Central California, reveal >5,000 pockmarks in an area that is slated to host a wind farm, between 500- and 1,500-m water depth. Extensive fieldwork was conducted to characterize the seafloor environment and its recent geologic history, including visual observations with remotely operated vehicles, sediment core sampling, and high-resolution, near-bottom Chirp and multibeam surveys collected with autonomous underwater vehicles to capture the morphology and stratigraphy of the pockmarks. No evidence of high methane concentrations in sediments, chemosynthetic biological communities, or methane-derived diagenetic byproducts was found. Chirp data and sediment cores showed alternating layers of slowly accumulating hemipelagic drapes interrupted by more reflective turbidite horizons that extend throughout the pockmark field and beyond. Chirp data showed multiple episodes of lateral migration over time in some of the pockmarks in association with erosion and infilling events. Laterally continuous turbidite horizons that overlay erosional surfaces indicated that pockmark migration occurred synchronously in multiple pockmarks separated by tens of kilometers. These shifts are presumed to be the result of asymmetrical erosion of the pockmark flanks caused by passing sediment gravity flows. While some pockmarks occur in chains, most are not clustered or randomly spaced but are regularly dispersed within the pockmark field. We hypothesize that intermittent, unconfined sediment gravity flows occurring over at least the last 280,000 years are the source of the regionally continuous turbidite deposits and the mechanism that maintained the regularly dispersed pockmarks.

California↗

Controls on stable methane isotope signatures in northern peatlands and potential shifts in signatures under permafrost thaw scenarios

Northern peatlands are a globally significant source of methane (CH 4 ), and emissions are projected to increase due to warming and permafrost loss. Understanding the microbial mechanisms behind patterns in CH 4 production in these systems will be key to predicting annual emissions changes, with stable carbon isotopes (δ 13 C-CH 4 ) being a powerful tool for characterizing these drivers. Given that δ 13 C signatures of CH 4 are used in top-down atmospheric inversion models to partition sources, our ability to model CH 4 production pathways and associated δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures in peatland types impacted by a changing climate is critical. We sought to characterize the role of environmental conditions, including both hydrologic and vegetation patterns associated with permafrost thaw, on δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures from a diverse set of high-latitude peatlands. We measured porewater and emitted CH 4 stable isotopes, pH, and vegetation composition from five boreal-Arctic peatlands. Porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 was strongly associated with peatland type, with δ 13 C enriched values obtained from more minerotrophic fens (-61.2 ± 9.1‰) compared to permafrost-free bogs (-74.1 ± 9.4‰) and raised permafrost bogs (-81.6 ± 11.5‰). Variation in porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 was best explained by sedge cover, CH 4 concentration, and the interactive effect of peatland type and pH ( r 2 = 0.50, p < 0.001). Emitted δ 13 C-CH 4 varied greatly but was positively correlated with porewater δ 13 C-CH 4 , suggesting that porewater data can be used to predict changing emissions signatures from these systems. We calculated a weighted mean mixed atmospheric CH 4 signature for northern peatlands of -65.3 ± 7‰ and show that this signature is more sensitive to landscape drying (4 to 10 % depletion in δ 13 C) than wetting (1.5 to 5% enrichment in δ 13 C) under permafrost thaw scenarios. Our results suggest northern peatland δ 13 C-CH 4 signatures are likely to shift in the future which has important implications for source partitioning in atmospheric inversion models.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Evolution of the Precambrian lithosphere: Seismological and geochemical constraints

Several recent models of crustal evolution are based on the belief that the thickness of the continental crust is proportional to its age, with ancient crust being the thickest. A worldwide review of seismic structure contradicts this belief and falsifies these models, at least for the Archean. Proterozoic crust has a thickness of 40–55 km and a substantial high‐velocity (>7 km/s) layer at its base, while Archean crust is only 27–40 km thick (except at the site of younger rifts and collisional boundaries) and lacks the basal high‐velocity layer. Seismology also provides evidence that the lithosphere is thickest beneath Archean cratons, while diamond ages show that this lithospheric keel must have already existed in the Archean. Geochemical data also indicate significant differences between Archean and Proterozoic lithosphere. Major and trace element studies of sediments show a change in upper crustal composition between the Archean and Proterozoic. Archean rocks are depleted in Si and K and enriched in Na, Ca, and Mg. There is also a marked change in the Eu/Eu * ratio. Mantle xenoliths and continental flood basalts show that the mantle lithosphere beneath Archean crust is ultradepleted in FeO compared to that beneath post‐Archean crust. The secular change in the crust‐forming process is attributed to a decline in mantle temperature, leading to a change in the composition of the lithospheric mantle. The higher temperature of the Archean mantle led to the eruption of komatiitic lavas, producing a refractory lithospheric mantle which is ultradepleted in FeO and volatiles. The resultant lithospheric keel is intrinsically less dense than the surrounding mantle and thus not susceptible to delamination. It was sufficiently thick and cool for diamonds to form during the Archean. In contrast, Proterozoic crust developed above fertile mantle. The eruption of continental flood basalts and underplating of basaltic sills is attributed to subsequent heating and partial melting of the lithospheric mantle. Consequently, Proterozoic crust is thickened and has a high‐velocity basal layer.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Quantitative investigations of the Missouri gravity low: A possible expression of a large, Late Precambrian batholith intersecting the New Madrid seismic zone

Analysis of gravity and magnetic anomaly data helps characterize the geometry and physical properties of the source of the Missouri gravity low, an important cratonic feature of substantial width (about 125 km) and length (> 600 km). Filtered anomaly maps show that this prominent feature extends NW from the Reelfoot rift to the Midcontinent Rift System. Geologic reasoning and the simultaneous inversion of the gravity and magnetic data lead to an interpretation that the gravity anomaly reflects an upper crustal, 11-km-thick batholith with either near vertical or outward dipping boundaries. Considering the modeled characteristics of the batholith, structural fabric of Missouri, and relations of the batholith with plutons and regions of alteration, a tectonic model for the formation of the batholith is proposed. The model includes a mantle plume that heated the crust during Late Precambrian and melted portions of lower and middle crust, from which the low-density granitic rocks forming the batholith were partly derived. The batholith, called the Missouri batholith, may be currently related to the release of seismic energy in the New Madrid seismic zone (earthquake concentrations occur at the intersection of the Missouri batholith and the New Madrid seismic zone). Three qualitative mechanical models are suggested to explain this relationship with seismicity. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Lunar theory and processes

Despite the fact that the Surveyor 3 landed in a crater, the general appearance of the terrain is remarkably similar to that revealed by Surveyor 1. Evidence of the transport of material down the crater wall was observed. Some picture degradation occurred, apparently as a result of fine particulate lunar surface material being deposited on the TV system mirror during the unusual landing.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Late Cenozoic volcanism, geochronology, and structure of the Coso Range, Inyo County, California

The Coso Range lies at the west edge of the Great Basin, adjacent to the southern part of the Sierra Nevada. A basement complex of pre‐Cenozoic plutonic and metamorphic rocks is partly buried by ∼35 km 3 of late Cenozoic volcanic rocks that were erupted during two periods, as defined by K‐Ar dating: (1) 4.0–2.5 m.y., ∼31 km 3 of basalt, rhyodacite, dacite, andesite, and rhyolite, in descending order of abundance, and (2) ≤1.1 m.y., nearly equal amounts of basalt and rhyolite, most of the rhyolite being ≤0.3 m.y. old. Vents for the volcanic rocks of the younger period are localized on and near a horst of basement rocks within a concavity defined by the distribution of vents of the older period. The alignment of many vents and the presence of a considerable number of roughly north‐trending normal faults of late Cenozoic age reflect basin and range tectonics dominated by roughly east‐west lithospheric extension. Fumaroles, intermittently active thermal springs, and associated altered rocks occur within and immediately east of the central part of the field of Quaternary rhyolite, in an area characterized by various geophysical anomalies that are evidently related to an active hot‐water geothermal system. This system apparently is heated by a reservoir of silicic magma at ≥8‐km depth, itself produced and sustained through partial melting of crustal rocks by thermal energy contained in mantle‐derived basaltic magma that intrudes the crust in response to lithospheric extension.

California↗

Distribution of Quaternary rhyolite domes of the Coso Range, California: implications for extent of the geothermal anomaly.

38 separate domes and flows of phenocryst-poor, high-silica rhyolite of similar major element chemical composition were erupted over the past 1My from vents arranged in a crudely S-shaped array atop a granitic horst in the Coso Range, California. Most of the extrusions are probably less than about 0.3My old. The central part of the rhyolite field is characterized by high heat flow, low apparent resistivity, and substantial fumarolic activity indicative of an active geothermal system.

California↗

Sr isotopic tracer study of the Samail ophiolite, Oman

We have measured Rb and Sr concentrations and Sr isotopic compositions in 41 whole-rock samples and 12 mineral separates from units of the Samail ophiolite, including peridotite, gabbro, plagiogranite, diabase dikes, and gabbro and websterite dikes within the metamorphic peridotite. Ten samples of cumulate gabbro from the Wadir Kadir section and nine samples from the Wadi Khafifah section have mean 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and standard deviations of 0.70314 ± 0.00030 and 0.70306 ± 0.00034, respectively. The dispersion in Sr isotopic composition may reflect real heterogeneities in the magma source region. The average Sr isotopic composition of cumulate gabbro falls in the range of isotopic compositions of modern midocean ridge basalt. The 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of noncumulate gabbro, plagiogranite, and diabase dikes range from 0.7034 to 0.7047, 0.7038 to 0.7046, and 0.7037 to 0.7061, respectively. These higher 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios are due to alteration of initial magmatic compositions by hydrothermal exchange with seawater. Mineral separates from dikes that cut harzburgite tectonite have Sr isotopic compositions which agree with that of cumulate gabbro. These data indicate that the cumulate gabbro and the different dikes were derived from partial melting of source regions that had similar long-term histories and chemical compositions.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Petrology and geochronology of metamorphosed volcanic rocks and a middle Cretaceous volcanic neck in the east-central Sierra Nevada, California

Metamorphosed Mesozoic volcanic rocks from the east-central Sierra Nevada range in composition from basalt to rhyolite and have ages, based on whole rock Rb-Sr and U-Pb zircon dating, of about 237–224, 185, 163, 134, and 100 m.y. The major plutons of the batholith in this area are of Triassic (215–200 m.y.) and Cretaceous (94–80 m.y.) ages. Initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values for the metamorphosed volcanic rocks of the area are in the range from 0.7042 to 0.7058 and are generally different from the values for the surrounding batholithic rocks (0.7056–0.7066). A circular, zoned granitic pluton, with an outcrop area of 2.5 km 2 , similar in appearance to a ring dike complex, was apparently a conduit for some or possibly all of the middle-Cretaceous metamorphosed volcanic rocks exposed about 5 km to the south in the western part of the Ritter Range. Samples from the metamorphosed volcanic rocks and the pluton yield a Rb-Sr whole rock isochron age of 99.9 ± 2.2 m.y. with an initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of 0.7048 ± 0.0001. Major element variation diagrams of the pluton and volcanic rocks define coincident compositional trends. The pluton, intruded into Early Jurassic metamorphosed volcanic rocks (Rb-Sr whole rock isochron age of 185 ± 6 m.y., initial 87 / 86 Sr = 0.70474 ± 0.00009), is composed of a central body of granite that is intruded into and almost completely surrounded by a crescent-shaped outer rim of quartz monzodiorite. Contact relations between the granitic rocks, intrusive in some places and completely gradational at other places, indicate that the quartz monzodiorite was not completely crystallized prior to the intrusion of the granite. Modal minerology within the pluton is also consistent with this inferred crystallization history. The granitic rock textures are cataclastic, characterized by a groundmass of feldspar and quartz that surrounds larger grains of feldspar, hornblende, and biotite. Widely spaced aplite dikes from the granite intrude the quartz monzodiorite along the contact between the granitic rocks. The aplite dikes and interstitial alkali feldspar associated with myrmekite in the pluton, being undeformed, indicate crystallization of a small amount of silicate liquid after cataclasis. Aplite compositions suggest a minimum crystallization pressure of 0.5 kb (1–2 km); this depth is consistent with crystallization near the base of a large stratovolcano. The pluton is characterized by steep, linear features, defined by mineral clots and inclusions, that probably formed during the upward movement of the nearly crystallized magma in the volcanic conduit. The ages of volcanic events relative to the ages of the major intrusive epochs and the major element and isotopic compositions of the volcanic rocks relative to the major plutons indicate that the volcanic rocks are not simply or directly related to the major plutons in the Sierra Nevada.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

Active tectonic and magmatic processes beneath Long Valley Caldera, eastern California: An overview

Geological, chronological, and structural studies of the Long Valley-Mono/Inyo Craters area document a long history of related volcanic eruptions and earthquakes controlled by regional extensional tectonics of the Basin and Range province. This activity has persisted for hundreds of thousands of years and is likely to continue. The Long Valley magma chamber had a volume approaching 3000 km 3 prior to its climatic caldera-forming eruption 0.7 m.y. ago but has been reduced to less than a third of this volume by cooling, eruption, and crystallization. Seismic evidence indicates that the main mass of the present Long Valley magma chamber is about 10 km in diameter and that its roof is 8–10 km deep with smaller cupolas as shallow as 4–5 km. Although a chamber of this size is probably capable of producing an eruption approaching 30 km 3 of lava, the record over the past 0.5 m.y. suggests that eruptions of 1 km 3 or less are far more likely. Models proposed for the current ground uplift and seismicity within the caldera require inflation of 0.1–0.2 km 3 by additional magma since mid-1979, and some models suggest that inflation was accompanied by injection of a thin dike or dikes (probably of silicic magma) into the ring fracture zone beneath the south moat. Several of the M 5.8–6.2 earthquakes that occurred in the region beginning in 1978 had non-double-couple focal mechanisms. Whether these unusual mechanisms indicate injection of mafic (low-viscosity) magma at midcrustal depths in the Sierra Nevada block south of the caldera remains debatable. Studies of calderas of various ages throughout the world indicate that episodes of unrest are relatively common and do not invariably culminate in eruptions. Although current unrest is concentrated in the south moat of Long Valley caldera, the Inyo/Mono Craters probably hold a greater potential for producing an eruption in the foreseeable future. The Inyo/Mono Craters have erupted at 500-year intervals over the past 2000–3000 years, whereas the Long Valley magma chamber has erupted at about 200,000-year intervals over the past 700,000 years. In either case, a major earthquake near the caldera could strongly influence the course of volcanic activity.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗