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Park Break: collaborative opportunity established for graduate students

Among the many topics discussed during the 2007-2008 George Wright Society (GWS) board meetings was the subject of how to inspire students seeking careers in science and natural resource management to consider the Department of Interior (DOI) in general, and the National Park Service (NPS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) in particular, as good options for future employment. Board members participating in these discussions included Suzette Kimball, now acting director of USGS, and Gillian Browser, now a research scientists with Colorado State University, who envisioned a program that would offer an alternative to the break from classes that universities typically offer students in early spring. Since those initial discussions among the GWS board members, Park Break sessions have been held in eleven different NPS sites across the country. Each session has sponsored six to eight graduate students in various stages off their university programs for a week-long seminar focused on a specific theme relevant to the host park, such as conversation policy and climate change. Sessions have varied in format but all generally have been composed of a week of field and classroom activity with participation from local, state, and national experts.

The George Wright Forum↗

From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear any time soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressed by analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more common projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a somewhat wetter future. The resampling approach applied in this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.

San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science↗

Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport

Climate warming and deglaciation are reshaping hydrological seasonality in cold–dry regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of agriculture, ecosystems and local communities. However, existing evidence is limited to runoff seasonality. Changing sediment-transport seasonality, a more sensitive component, is emerging as a substantial yet under-recognized threat to water infrastructure. Leveraging monthly observations from the upper Tarim River from the 1960s to 2000s, we show that a warmer and wetter climate has intensified sediment-transport seasonality, with a 43% increase in summer sediment fluxes. Over half of this amplification stems from more frequent extreme sediment transport, particularly events triggered by high sediment supply rather than high discharge. Supported by a state-of-the-art river change dataset, we show that enhanced sediment seasonality and extreme sediment transport have largely contributed to increased river mobility since 2000. Sediment-driven changes are pushing riverine processes towards greater unpredictability and pose growing threats to water infrastructure and water security in vulnerable cold–dry regions.

Nature Sustainability↗

A landscape-scale view of soil organic matter dynamics

Soil carbon is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and could be augmented through improved soil management to mitigate climate change. However, data gaps for numerous regions and a lack of understanding of the heterogeneity of biogeochemical processes across diverse soil landscapes hinder the development of large-scale representations of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics. In this Perspective, we outline how understanding soil formation processes and complexity at the landscape scale can inform predictions of soil organic matter (SOM) cycling and soil carbon sequestration. Long-term alterations of the soil matrix caused by weathering and soil redistribution vary across climate zones and ecosystems, but particularly with the structure of landscapes at the regional scale. Thus, oversimplified generalizations that assume that the drivers of SOM dynamics can be scaled directly from local to global regimes and vice versa leads to large uncertainties in global projections of soil C stocks. Data-driven models with enhanced coverage of underrepresented regions, particularly where soils are physicochemically distinct and environmental change is most rapid, are key to understanding C turnover and stabilization at landscape scales to better predict global soil carbon dynamics.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗

Permafrost thaw controls iron flux from wetlands and sulfide-bearing rocks to Arctic rivers and streams

Recent warming has caused widespread iron mobilization into Arctic waterbodies that degrades ecosystems and threatens natural resources. Yet, understanding where and when iron flux occurs remains limited. Here, we investigate iron loading across regional to local scales in Arctic Alaska using climate, water chemistry, and borehole data together with mapped geology and permafrost presence. We show that both anoxic microbial iron reduction and acid rock drainage from iron-sulfide oxidation mobilize iron. Iron influx is strongly associated with lowland wetlands, sulfide-rich upland bedrock, and near-surface permafrost. Acid rock drainage chemistry correlates very strongly with the depth of seasonal thaw above permafrost from the previous year, indicating a one-year lag. These findings clarify the spatial and temporal dynamics of Arctic river rusting, provide a mechanistic understanding of the phenomenon, and may allow anticipation of its occurrence and assessment of its implications for aquatic ecosystem health and subsistence resources under ongoing climate change.

Alaska↗

Crossing boundaries in a collaborative modeling workspace

There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we present a case study documenting the mechanisms by which managers and scientists collaborated to incorporate climate change projections into Colorado’s State Wildlife Action Plan. A critical component of the project was the use of a collaborative modeling and visualization workspace: the U.S. Geological Survey’s Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM). Using video analysis and pre/post surveys from this case study, we examine how the RAM facilitated cognitive and social processes that co-produced a more salient and credible end product. This case provides practical suggestions to scientists and practitioners who want to implement actionable science.

Society and Natural Resources↗

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

Average annual temperature for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has increased by more than 1.5°F since 1950. Under a higher emissions pathway, historically unprecedented warming is projected by the end of the 21st century, including increases in extreme heat events. Future changes in total precipitation are uncertain, but extreme precipitation is projected to increase, with associated increases in the intensity and frequency of flooding. Sea level has risen by 0.6 inches per decade at San Juan, Puerto Rico since 1961, near the global sea level rise rate during the second half of the 20th century. Global sea level rise projections range from 1 to 8 feet by 2100, with similar rises projected for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rising sea levels pose widespread and continuing threats to both natural and built environments in coastal communities. Hurricanes are a major threat to both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hurricane rainfall rates, storm surge heights due to sea level rise, and the number of the strongest (Category 3, 4, and 5) hurricanes are all projected to increase in a warming climate.

NOAA State Climate Summaries↗

Assessing groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability throughout the United States to gain a better understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate may affect those resources. The goal of this National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for the Nation's principal aquifer systems to help characterize how much water is currently available, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). The concept of groundwater availability is more than just how much water can be pumped from any given aquifer. Groundwater availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The primary objective of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain groundwater-availability study is to identify spatial and temporal changes in the overall water budget by more fully determining the natural and human processes that control how water enters, moves through, and leaves the groundwater system. Development of tools such as numerical models can help hydrologists gain an understanding of this groundwater system, allowing forecasts to be made about the response of this system to natural and human stresses, and water quality and ecosystem health to be analyzed, throughout the region.

Fact Sheet↗

Seed banks of rare Physostegia correllii (Lamiaceae) in Lady Bird Lake, Austin, Texas, U.S.A.

Rare species threatened by climate and land-use change may harbor seeds in soil seed banks for periods of time even if adults have disappeared from the site. Soil samples were collected from sites with current Phyostegia correllii populations and from sites with former populations in Lady Bird Lake (a reservoir of the Colorado River, Austin, Texas. A seedling emergence study was conducted under greenhouse conditions, and the presence/absence of seedling emergence was recorded for two years. Seeds germinated from the seed banks of all current and former colonies tested. The presence of seed banks in a historical site (Blunn Creek) of Physostegia correllii suggests that management to encourage the germination of seeds might help to encourage the establishment of populations of this species. The re-establishment of disturbance fugitives might be facilitated by removing overhanging ground vegetation or imposing water management regimes that mimic natural floodplain dynamics.

Texas↗

Are there active glaciers on Mars? (Reply)

Gillespie et al . 1 concur with our interpretation that certain lobate equatorial and mid-latitude features on Mars are due to debris-covered glaciers formed largely during past periods of increased spin-axis obliquity, when climate regimes favoured snow and ice accumulation and glacial flow 2 . They suggest that the ‘hourglass’ deposit, dated at more than 40 Myr old 2 , could be active today owing to an additional mechanism that supports “local augmentation of accumulation from snowfall” without climate change on Mars. This mechanism requires the present, or very recent, release of groundwater to the surface to form aufeis (groundwater-fed ‘glaciers’) where the groundwater is generated by dewatering of hydrous compounds or melting by magmatic or impact-generated heat. We assess whether this suggestion applies to the deposits in question — it was previously proposed for much older deposits in other areas of Mars 3 , 4 . We make particular reference to the key relationships in the accumulation zones.

Nature↗

Sample descriptions and geophysical logs for cored well BP-3-USGS, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Alamosa County, Colorado

The BP-3-USGS well was drilled at the southwestern corner of Great Sand Dunes National Park in the San Luis Valley, south-central Colorado, 68 feet (ft, 20.7 meters [m]) southwest of the National Park Service’s boundary-piezometer (BP) well 3. BP-3-USGS is located at latitude 37°43ʹ18.06ʺN. and longitude 105°43ʹ39.30ʺW., at an elevation of 7,549 ft (2,301 m). The well was drilled through poorly consolidated sediments to a depth of 326 ft (99.4 m) in September 2009. Water began flowing from the well after penetrating a clay-rich layer that was first intercepted at a depth of 119 ft (36.3 m). The base of this layer, at an elevation of 7,415 ft (2,260 m) above sea level, likely marks the top of a regional confined aquifer recognized throughout much of the San Luis Valley. Approximately 69 ft (21 m) of core was recovered (about 21 percent), almost exclusively from clay-rich zones. Coarser grained fractions were collected from mud extruded from the core barrel or captured from upwelling drilling fluids. Natural gamma-ray, full waveform sonic, density, neutron, resistivity, spontaneous potential, and induction logs were acquired. The well is now plugged and abandoned. This report presents lithologic descriptions from the well samples and core, along with a compilation and basic data processing of the geophysical logs. The succession of sediments in the well can be generalized into three lithologic packages: (1) mostly sand from the surface to about 77 ft (23.5 m) depth; (2) interbedded sand, silt, and clay, decreasing in overall grain size downward, from 77 to 232 ft (23.5 to 70.7 m) depth; and (3) layers of massive clay alternating with layers of fine sand to silt from 232 to 326 ft (70.7 to 99.4 m), the total depth of the well. The topmost clay layers of the deepest package have a blue tint, prompting a correlation with the “blue clay” of the San Luis Valley that is commonly considered as the top of the confined aquifer. However, a confining clay was intercepted 113 ft (34.4 m) higher than the blue clay in BP-3-USGS. Most of the geophysical logs have good correspondence to the lithologic variations in the well. Exceptions are the gamma-ray log, which is likely affected by naturally occurring radiation from abundant volcanic detritus, and one interval within the deepest lithologic package, which appears to be abnormally electrically conductive. Resistivity logs and variations in sand versus clay content within the well are consistent with electrical resistivity models derived from time-domain electromagnetic geophysical surveys for the area. In particular, the topmost blue clay corresponds to a strong electrical conductor that is prominent in the electromagnetic geophysical data throughout the park and vicinity. BP-3-USGS was sited to test hypotheses developed from geophysical studies and to answer questions about the history and evolution of Pliocene and Pleistocene Lake Alamosa, which is represented by lacustrine deposits sampled by the well. The findings reported here represent a basis from which future studies can answer these questions and address other important scientific questions in the San Luis Valley regarding geologic history and climate change, groundwater hydrology, and geophysical interpretation.

Colorado↗

An integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America

Climate change is increasing the severity and extent of extreme droughts events, posing a critical threat to freshwater ecosystems, particularly with increasing human demands for diminishing water supplies. Despite the importance of drought as a significant driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, current understanding of drought consequences for freshwater biodiversity is very limited. We describe key barriers that hinder integrative drought research and monitoring across riverscapes. The primary constraint limiting understanding of ecological drought is an existing monitoring framework focused on human water consumption and flood risk in mainstem rivers. This approach is misaligned with escalating needs for research and data collection that illuminate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (i.e., vulnerability) of biota to drought across entire riverscapes. We present a hierarchical framework for integrated ecological drought monitoring and research that addresses drought vulnerability across riverscapes, and describe how this approach can directly inform natural-resource management.

BioScience↗

Natural heat storage in a brine-filled solar pond in the Tully Valley of central New York

The Tully Valley, located in southern Onondaga County, New York, has a long history of unusual natural hydrogeologic phenomena including mudboils (Kappel, 2009), landslides (Tamulonis and others, 2009; Pair and others, 2000), landsurface subsidence (Hackett and others, 2009; Kappel, 2009), and a brine-filled sinkhole or “Solar pond” (fig. 1), which is documented in this report. A solar pond is a pool of salty water (brine) which stores the sun’s energy in the form of heat. The saltwater naturally forms distinct layers with increasing density between transitional zones (haloclines) of rapidly changing specific conductance with depth. In a typical solar pond, the top layer has a low salt content and is often times referred to as the upper convective zone (Lu and others, 2002). The bottom layer is a concentrated brine that is either convective or temperature stratified dependent on the surrounding environment. Solar insolation is absorbed and stored in the lower, denser brine while the overlying halocline acts as an insulating layer and prevents heat from moving upwards from the lower zone (Lu and others, 2002). In the case of the Tully Valley solar pond, water within the pond can be over 90 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) in late summer and early fall. The purpose of this report is to summarize observations at the Tully Valley brine-filled sinkhole and provide supplemental climate data which might affect the pond salinity gradients insolation (solar energy).

New York↗

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report↗

Worldwide status of burbot and conservation measures

Although burbot ( Lota lota Gadidae ) are widespread and abundant throughout much of their natural range, there are many populations that have been extirpated, endangered or are in serious decline. Due in part to the species’ lack of popularity as a game and commercial fish, few regions consider burbot in management plans. We review the worldwide population status of burbot and synthesize reasons why some burbot populations are endangered or declining, some burbot populations have recovered and some burbot populations do not recover despite management measures. Burbot have been extirpated in much of Western Europe and the United Kingdom and are threatened or endangered in much of North America and Eurasia. Pollution and habitat change, particularly the effects of dams, appear to be the main causes for declines in riverine burbot populations. Pollution and the adverse effects of invasive species appear to be the main reasons for declines in lacustrine populations. Warmer water temperatures, due either to discharge from dams or climate change, have been noted in declining burbot populations at the southern extent of their range. Currently, fishing pressure does not appear to be limiting burbot populations world-wide. We suggest mitigation measures for burbot population recovery, particularly those impacted by dams and invasive species.

Fish and Fisheries↗

Implications of accelerated sea-level rise on Louisiana coastal environments

Natural and human-induced processes have combined to produce high rates of relative sea-level rise and coastal land loss in Louisiana. This paper presents historical trends in sea-level rise and the implication of predicted accelerated rise scenarios on Louisiana's coastal environments. Mean eustatic sea-level in the Gulf of Mexico is 0.23 cm/yr. In Louisiana, relative sea-level rise, which combines eustacy and subsidence, averages from 0.50 cm/yr in the chenier plain to 1.0 cm/yr in the delta plain. Subsidence due to the compaction of Holocene sediments is believed to be the major component influencing these high rates of rise. Subsidence contributes up to 80% of the observed relative sea-level rise in coastal Louisiana. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) predicts the rate of sea-level rise to increase over the next century due to global climate change. If these predictions are accurate, a dramatic increase in the coastal land loss conditions in Louisiana can be expected.

Conference Paper↗

Topographic, bioclimatic, and vegetation characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems in North America: Comparisons along continent-wide transects

Ecoregion classification systems are increasingly used for policy and management decisions, particularly among conservation and natural resource managers. A number of ecoregion classification systems are currently available, with each system defining ecoregions using different classification methods and different types of data. As a result, each classification system describes a unique set of ecoregions. To help potential users choose the most appropriate ecoregion system for their particular application, we used three latitudinal transects across North America to compare the boundaries and environmental characteristics of three ecoregion classification systems [Ku??chler, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and Bailey]. A variety of variables were used to evaluate the three systems, including woody plant species richness, normalized difference in vegetation index (NDVI), and bioclimatic variables (e.g., mean temperature of the coldest month) along each transect. Our results are dominated by geographic patterns in temperature, which are generally aligned north-south, and in moisture, which are generally aligned east-west. In the west, the dramatic changes in physiography, climate, and vegetation impose stronger controls on ecoregion boundaries than in the east. The Ku??chler system has the greatest number of ecoregions on all three transects, but does not necessarily have the highest degree of internal consistency within its ecoregions with regard to the bioclimatic and species richness data. In general, the WWF system appears to track climatic and floristic variables the best of the three systems, but not in all regions on all transects. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Environmental Management↗

Mechanisms of methane hydrate formation in geological systems

Natural gas hydrates are ice-like mixtures of gas (mostly methane) and water that are widely found in sediments along the world’s continental margins and within and beneath permafrost in a near-surface depth interval where the pressure is sufficiently high and temperature sufficiently low for gas hydrate to be stable. Beneath this interval, gas hydrate is not stable and free gas may be present. This paper reviews the multiple quantitative models that have proposed to describe the genesis of gas hydrate in geological systems. We emphasize the importance of coupling multi-phase flow (vapor and liquid) and multicomponent reactive transport with geological history to describe the dynamical processes of gas hydrate formation and evolution in geological systems. By understanding the generation and evolution of gas hydrate through time, we will better understand their role in the carbon cycle, their potential to contribute to climate change and geohazards, and how to design optimal strategies for the environmentally safe production of gas from hydrate reservoirs.

Reviews of Geophysics↗