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USGS2020

Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management

Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management—those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Geoscience Canada↗

USGS2017

PeRL: A circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake database

Ponds and lakes are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. They play an important role in Arctic wetland ecosystems by regulating carbon, water, and energy fluxes and providing freshwater habitats. However, ponds, i.e., waterbodies with surface areas smaller than 1. 0 × 10 4 m 2 , have not been inventoried on global and regional scales. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database presents the results of a circum-Arctic effort to map ponds and lakes from modern (2002–2013) high-resolution aerial and satellite imagery with a resolution of 5 m or better. The database also includes historical imagery from 1948 to 1965 with a resolution of 6 m or better. PeRL includes 69 maps covering a wide range of environmental conditions from tundra to boreal regions and from continuous to discontinuous permafrost zones. Waterbody maps are linked to regional permafrost landscape maps which provide information on permafrost extent, ground ice volume, geology, and lithology. This paper describes waterbody classification and accuracy, and presents statistics of waterbody distribution for each site. Maps of permafrost landscapes in Alaska, Canada, and Russia are used to extrapolate waterbody statistics from the site level to regional landscape units. PeRL presents pond and lake estimates for a total area of 1. 4 × 10 6 km 2 across the Arctic, about 17 % of the Arctic lowland ( < 300 m a.s.l.) land surface area. PeRL waterbodies with sizes of 1. 0 × 10 6 m 2 down to 1. 0 × 10 2 m 2 contributed up to 21 % to the total water fraction. Waterbody density ranged from 1. 0 × 10 to 9. 4 × 10 1 km −2 . Ponds are the dominant waterbody type by number in all landscapes representing 45–99 % of the total waterbody number. The implementation of PeRL size distributions in land surface models will greatly improve the investigation and projection of surface inundation and carbon fluxes in permafrost lowlands. Waterbody maps, study area boundaries, and maps of regional permafrost landscapes including detailed metadata are available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.868349 .

Earth System Science Data↗

USGS2018

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino↗

USGS2011

Greater sage-grouse of Grand Teton National Park: where do they roam?

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population declines may be caused by range-wide degradation of sagebrush (woody Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystems. Understanding how greater sage-grouse use the landscape is essential for successful management. We assessed greater sage-grouse habitat selection on a landscape level in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and radio-collared sage-grouse to compare habitat used and the total available landscape. Greater sage-grouse selected mountain big sagebrush (A. tridentata var. vaseyana) communities or mixed mountain big sagebrush–antelope bitterbrush (Purshia tridentata) communities and avoided low-sagebrush (A. arbuscula) dwarf shrubland. In spring and summer, sage-grouse primarily used sagebrush-dominated habitats on the valley floor and did not concentrate in mesic areas later in the summer as is typical of the species. The diversity of habitats used in winter exceeds that reported in the literature. In winter, Jackson Hole greater sage-grouse moved to hills, where they used various communities in proportion to their availability, including tall deciduous shrublands, cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) stands, exposed hillsides, and aspen (P. tremuloides) stands. Because seasonal habitat selection is not necessarily consistent across populations residing in different landscapes, habitat management should be specific to each population and landscape. This sage-grouse population provides an example that may offer insight into other species with seasonal habitat needs.

Grand Teton National Park↗

USGS2009

After the disaster: The hydrogeomorphic, ecological, and biological responses to the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens caused instantaneous landscape disturbance on a grand scale. On 18 May 1980, an ensemble of volcanic processes, including a debris avalanche, a directed pyroclastic density current, voluminous lahars, and widespread tephra fall, abruptly altered landscape hydrology and geomorphology, and created distinctive disturbance zones having varying impacts on regional biota. Response to the geological and ecological disturbances has been varied and complex. In general, eruption-induced alterations in landscape hydrology and geomorphology led to enhanced stormflow discharge and sediment transport. Although the hydrological response to landscape perturbation has diminished, enhanced sediment transport persists in some basins. In the nearly 30 years since the eruption, 350 million (metric) tons of suspended sediment has been delivered from the Toutle River watershed to the Cowlitz River (roughly 40 times the average annual preeruption suspended-sediment discharge of the Columbia River). Such prodigious sediment loading has wreaked considerable socioeconomic havoc, causing significant channel aggradation and loss of flood conveyance capacity. Significant and ongoing engineering efforts have been required to mitigate these problems. The overall biological evolution of the eruption-impacted landscape can be viewed in terms of a framework of survivor legacies. Despite appearances to the contrary, a surprising number of species survived the eruption, even in the most heavily devastated areas. With time, survivor “hotspots” have coalesced into larger patches, and have served as stepping stones for immigrant colonization. The importance of biological legacies will diminish with time, but the intertwined trajectories of geophysical and biological successions will influence the geological and biological responses to the 1980 eruption for decades to come.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Deserts

The deserts of California (Lead photo, Fig. 1) occupy approximately 38% of California’s landscape (Table 1) and consist of three distinct deserts: the Great Basin Desert, Mojave Desert, and Colorado Desert, the latter of which is a subdivision of the Sonoran Desert (Brown and Lowe 1980). The wide range of climates and geology found within each of these deserts result in very different vegetative communities and ecosystem processes and therefore different ecosystem services. In deserts, extreme conditions such as very high and low temperatures and very low rainfall result in abiotic factors (climate, geology, geomorphology, and soils) controlling the composition and function of ecosystems, including plant and animal distributions. This is in contrast to wetter and milder temperatures found in other ecosystems, where biotic interactions are the dominant driving force. However, despite the harsh conditions in deserts, they are home to a surprisingly large number of plants and animals. Deserts are also places where organisms display a wide array of adaptations to the extremes they encounter, providing some of the best examples of Darwinian selection (MacMahon and Wagner 1985, Ward 2009). Humans have utilized these regions for thousands of years, despite the relatively low productivity and harsh climates of these landscapes. Unlike much of California, most of these desert lands have received little high-intensity use since European settlement, leaving large areas relatively undisturbed. Desert landscapes are being altered, however, by the introduction of fire following the recent invasion of Mediterranean annual grasses. As most native plants are not fire-adapted, they Many do not recover, whereas the non-native grasses flourish. Because desert lands are slow to recover from disturbances, energy exploration and development, recreational use, and urban development will alter these landscapes for many years to come. This chapter provides a brief description of where the different deserts of California are located and their dominant vegetative communities. The abiotic factors that define these deserts and how these factors control vegetation and thus animal distribution among and within the various deserts are examined next. Following this section, ecosystem processes and iconic species of these deserts are discussed, followed by a concluding section on the future of these landscapes. The latter section will be mostly focused on the Mojave Desert, as it is both the largest California desert and also where most of the research on California deserts has occurred.

California↗

USGS2026

Amphibian use of recently created wetlands in the Palouse region of northern Idaho, USA

Human development has resulted in the loss of natural wetlands in many regions and thus has led to amphibian habitat loss. Human-constructed wetlands are increasingly prevalent, particularly in human-modified landscapes, and can be used as breeding habitats by amphibians. It is important to identify factors influencing amphibian use of constructed wetlands to guide future wetland creation efforts. We examined wetland- and landscape-level factors influencing the presence and reproduction of native amphibians in 33 recently created (2–11 yold) wetlands within an urban-agricultural interface in northern Idaho, USA. We recorded wetland age, perimeter vegetation, and percentage of surrounding land cover as covariates and modeled detection and occupancy using Bayesian Multi-scale Occupancy Models for the three species we detected: Sierran Treefrog ( Pseudacris sierra ), Colombia Spotted Frog ( Rana luteiventris ), and Long-Toed Salamander ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ). Our results indicate that these three species can rapidly colonize recently created wetlands in an urban-agricultural interface. The effects of wetland- and landscape-scale features varied across species. Colombia Spotted Frog occupancy was greatest in older wetlands with some evidence for a negative association with more urbanized landscapes. Long Toed Salamanders and Sierran Treefrogs were not associated with wetland age but also showed some evidence of negative associations with urbanization. Long-Toed Salamanders showed evidence of using less vegetated wetlands while Sierran Treefrogs showed evidence of using more vegetated wetlands. Our results are consistent with multiple studies showing that wetlands in human-modified landscapes can provide amphibian breeding habitat, and they suggest that including vegetation plantings within recently created wetlands may promote amphibian colonization. Anecdotal observations also indicate that designing wetlands with sufficient hydroperiod for metamorphoses may be important for ensuring that newly created wetlands benefit amphibian populations.

Idaho↗

USGS2003

Geographic Information System Tools for Conservation Planning: User's Manual

Public and private land managers desire better ways to incorporate landscape, species, and habitat relations into their conservation planning processes. We present three tools, developed for the Environmental Systems Research Institute?s ArcView 3.x platform, applicable to many types of wildlife conservation management and planning efforts. These tools provide managers and planners with the ability to rapidly assess landscape attributes and link these attributes with species-habitat information. To use the tools, the user provides a detailed land cover spatial database and develops a matrix to identify species-habitat relations for the landscape of interest. The tools are applicable to any taxa or suite of taxa for which the required data are available. The user also has the ability to interactively make polygon-specific changes to the landscape and re-examine species-habitat relations. The development of these tools has given resource managers the means to evaluate the merits of proposed landscape management scenarios and to choose the scenario that best fits the goals of the managed area.

Information and Technology Report↗

USGS2010

Predicting carnivore occurrence with noninvasive surveys and occupancy modeling

Terrestrial carnivores typically have large home ranges and exist at low population densities, thus presenting challenges to wildlife researchers. We employed multiple, noninvasive survey methods—scat detection dogs, remote cameras, and hair snares—to collect detection–nondetection data for elusive American black bears ( Ursus americanus ), fishers ( Martes pennanti) , and bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) throughout the rugged Vermont landscape. We analyzed these data using occupancy modeling that explicitly incorporated detectability as well as habitat and landscape variables. For black bears, percentage of forested land within 5 km of survey sites was an important positive predictor of occupancy, and percentage of human developed land within 5 km was a negative predictor. Although the relationship was less clear for bobcats, occupancy appeared positively related to the percentage of both mixed forest and forested wetland habitat within 1 km of survey sites. The relationship between specific covariates and fisher occupancy was unclear, with no specific habitat or landscape variables directly related to occupancy. For all species, we used model averaging to predict occurrence across the study area. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of our black bear and fisher models suggested that occupancy modeling efforts with data from noninvasive surveys could be useful for carnivore conservation and management, as they provide insights into habitat use at the regional and landscape scale without requiring capture or direct observation of study species.

Vermont↗

USGS2022

Over the hills and through the farms: Land use and topography influence genetic connectivity of northern leopard frog (Rana pipiens) in the Prairie Pothole Region

Context Agricultural land-use conversion has fragmented prairie wetland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), an area with one of the most wetland dense regions in the world. This fragmentation can lead to negative consequences for wetland obligate organisms, heightening risk of local extinction and reducing evolutionary potential for populations to adapt to changing environments. Objectives This study models biotic connectivity of prairie-pothole wetlands using landscape genetic analyses of the northern leopard frog ( Rana pipiens ) to (1) identify population structure and (2) determine landscape factors driving genetic differentiation and possibly leading to population fragmentation. Methods Frogs from 22 sites in the James River and Lake Oahe river basins in North Dakota were genotyped using Best-RAD sequencing at 2868 bi-allelic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Population structure was assessed using STRUCTURE, DAPC, and fineSTRUCTURE. Circuitscape was used to model resistance values for ten landscape variables that could affect habitat connectivity. Results STRUCTURE results suggested a panmictic population, but other more sensitive clustering methods identified six spatially organized clusters. Circuit theory-based landscape resistance analysis suggested land use, including cultivated crop agriculture, and topography were the primary influences on genetic differentiation. Conclusion While the R. pipiens populations appear to have high gene flow, we found a difference in the patterns of connectivity between the eastern portion of our study area which was dominated by cultivated crop agriculture, versus the western portion where topographic roughness played a greater role. This information can help identify amphibian dispersal corridors and prioritize lands for conservation or restoration.

North Dakota↗

USGS2023

Toward conciliation in the habitat fragmentation and biodiversity debate

Landscape-scale conservation planning is urgent given the extent of anthropogenic land-use change and its pervasive impacts on Earth’s biodiversity. However, such efforts are hindered by disagreements over the effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity that have persisted since the mid-1970s. We contend that nearly 50 years later, these disagreements have become a locked-in debate characterized by polarized, unproductive discourse and a lack of consistent guidance for landscape managers and policy makers. Here, we highlight the need for a unified set of principles regarding conservation in fragmented landscapes, identify potential reasons for disparate conclusions in fragmentation research, and suggest ways for the ecological community to advance research that leads to consensus rather than the perpetuation of disagreement. Explicit efforts to develop and test multiple competing hypotheses, inter-laboratory collaborations, and acknowledgement of multiple interacting effects will be vital for moving the fragmentation debate forward. We argue that we in the ecology community should be responsible for helping to reconcile different views across scales, systems, and methodological approaches to advance conservation planning within a landscape ecology framework.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2023

Estimating proximity effects to wildfire fuels treatments on house prices in Cibola National Forest, New Mexico, USA

Forested landscapes in the Western United States are subject to growing size and severity of wildfires, in part due to historical management strategies focusing on wildfire suppression. Forest restoration treatments and fuels reductions, including thinning and prescribed burning, can reduce the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Extensive restoration and fuels treatment efforts are underway across many areas in the Southwestern United States, including New Mexico. The tradeoff between amenity values provided by forested landscapes and the wildfire risk associated with forested landscapes is becoming increasingly important to understand as development in the wildland-urban interface increases. Understanding how house proximity, relative to forest restoration or fuels treatments, is capitalized into home sale prices can provide useful information about how individuals value forested landscapes that have been altered to reduce wildfire risk or severity. We use a Hedonic Property Model to estimate the average treatment effect of proximity to forest restoration or fuel treatments in New Mexico, United States. We use matching methods to estimate the average treatment effect of proximity to forest restoration. We find that proximity to the forest has a positive amenity value; however, proximity to recent forest restoration or fuel treatments results in a decrease in house sale prices. We combine the results of our two models and calculate that homes not within one kilometer of a treated forest and within one kilometer of Cibola National Forest sell for an average $73,626 premium. The average premium drops to $22,996 for homes within one kilometer of a forest that has been recently treated and within one kilometer of Cibola National Forest.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Marshes to mangroves: Residential surveys reveal perceived wetland trade-offs for ecosystem services

Coastal landscapes are rapidly changing due to both climate change and the decisions of waterfront landowners. For instance, the climate-driven encroachment of woody mangrove species into grassy marshland areas is predicted to impact coastal ecosystems, with consequences for the ecosystem services these landscapes provide to people. However, there is a dearth of knowledge concerning coastal resident perceptions of the effects of mangrove expansion on wetlands and their ecosystem services, which may impact residents’ behavior around shorelines and landscape-level patterns. We surveyed waterfront residents in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) to understand perceptions of the relative performance of marshes and mangroves to deliver fisheries ecosystem services. Residential-scale shoreline condition and preference, recreational fishing activity, geography, and demographics were evaluated as potential predictors of resident perceptions through non-parametric comparisons across groups and ordered logit modeling. Significant predictors included area of residence, marsh shoreline condition, marsh shoreline preference, fishing frequency, and household income. Florida residents (where mangroves are most prevalent) and frequent recreational fishing participants exhibited stronger preference for mangroves. Unexpectedly, residents with marsh currently present on their shoreline also perceived that mangroves were better at delivering fisheries ecosystem services than marshes. Considering the important role that coastal residents play in shoreline management decisions, these results demonstrate how coastal resident attitudes may drive or mediate climate-driven processes in ways that are not evident by examining environmental conditions alone. Understanding social-ecological shifts due to climate change will be important to inform effective landscape management that promotes resilience in coastal ecosystems and societies.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗

USGS2026

Quantifying avian resilience to habitat change to support conservation decision-making

Habitat loss and degradation are two of the main drivers of contemporary avian population declines. Wildlife managers are increasingly advocating for tools that provide decision support to set priorities for restoration or conservation efficiently. We demonstrate how to derive two species-specific management and resilience metrics: the greatest management impact point (GMIP) and the ecological resilience threshold (RT). The GMIP indicates the amount of environmental change in a landscape where habitat improvements are expected to have the greatest impact on species’ occurrence. The RT represents the amount of environmental change in a landscape that a species can tolerate before the steepest change in occupancy is expected to begin. We estimate species-specific metrics using the amount of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation as an index of environmental change, and demonstrate how multispecies patterns may suggest potential management strategies. We estimated occupancy models using 5 years of multispecies avian detection data from the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program in the State of Utah, USA (hereafter, Utah). Based on the estimated relationship between species’ occupancy and amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation, we derive RT and GMIP scores for 61 species breeding in Utah. We found wide interspecific variation in resilience to amounts of exotic vegetation, with species generally clustering at extreme values. Our results demonstrate that birds in Utah appear more resilient to amounts of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation at coarser spatial resolution, showing greater variance and lower average RTs at finer spatial resolution. Species that are not fully resilient to the range of uncharacteristic exotic vegetation observed in this study are expected to respond most strongly, on average, to management actions in landscapes with high levels of exotic vegetation; however, early detection and rapid response is likely the most effective strategy. Quantified across many species, these metrics can be used to identify and prioritize landscapes where current environmental conditions could be maintained to avoid the greatest species’ declines, or which maximize expected biodiversity returns on investment in environmental restoration. Managers can consider either focal species’ resilience for tailored conservation planning or summarize species resilience to create efficient management plans that maximize outcomes for multiple species.

Utah↗

USGS2024

Invasive-dominated grasslands in Hawaiʻi are resilient to disturbance

Non-native-dominated landscapes may arise from invasion by competitive plant species, disturbance and invasion of early-colonizing species, or some combination of these. Without knowing site history, however, it is difficult to predict how native or non-native communities will reassemble after disturbance events. Given increasing disturbance levels across anthropogenically impacted landscapes, predictive understanding of these patterns is important. We asked how disturbance affected community assembly in six invaded habitat types common in dryland, grazed landscapes on Island of Hawai‘i. We mechanically disturbed 100 m 2 plots in six vegetation types dominated by one of four invasive perennial grasses ( Cenchrus ciliaris , Cenchrus clandestinus , Cenchrus setaceus , or Melinis repens ), a native shrub ( Dodonaea viscosa ), or a native perennial bunchgrass ( Eragrostis atropioides ). We censused vegetation before disturbance and monitored woody plant colonization and herbaceous cover for 21 months following the disturbance, categorizing species as competitors, colonizers, or a combination, based on recovery patterns. In addition, we planted individuals of the native shrub and bunchgrass and monitored survival to overcome dispersal limitation of native species when exploring these patterns. We found that the dominant vegetation types showed variation in post-disturbance syndrome, and that the variation in colonizer versus competitor syndrome occurred both between species, but also within species among different vegetation types. Although there were flushes of native shrub seedlings, these did not survive to 21 months within invaded habitats, probably due to regrowth by competitive invasive grasses. Similarly, survival of planted native individuals was related to the rate of regrowth by dominant species. Regardless of colonization/competitor syndrome, however, all dominant vegetation types were relatively resilient to change. Our results highlight that the altered post-agricultural, invaded grassland landscapes in Hawaiʻi are stable states. More generally, they point to the importance of resident communities and their effects on species interactions and seed availability in shaping plant community response to disturbance.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

A multispecies approach to manage effects of land cover and weather on upland game birds

Loss and degradation of grasslands in the Great Plains region have resulted in major declines in abundance of grassland bird species. To ensure future viability of grassland bird populations, it is crucial to evaluate specific effects of environmental factors among species to determine drivers of population decline and develop effective conservation strategies. We used threshold models to quantify the effects of land cover and weather changes in "lesser prairie-chicken" and "greater prairie-chicken" ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus and T. cupido , respectively), northern bobwhites ( Colinus virginianus ), and ring-necked pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ). We demonstrated a novel approach for estimating landscape conditions needed to optimize abundance across multiple species at a variety of spatial scales. Abundance of all four species was highest following wet summers and dry winters. Prairie chicken and ring-necked pheasant abundance was highest following cool winters, while northern bobwhite abundance was highest following warm winters. Greater prairie chicken and northern bobwhite abundance was also highest following cooler summers. Optimal abundance of each species occurred in landscapes that represented a grassland and cropland mosaic, though prairie chicken abundance was optimized in landscapes with more grassland and less edge habitat than northern bobwhites and ring-necked pheasants. Because these effects differed among species, managing for an optimal landscape for multiple species may not be the optimal scenario for any one species.

Kansas↗

USGS2023

Density-habitat relationships of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Finland

In heterogeneous landscapes, resource selection constitutes a crucial link between landscape and population-level processes such as density. We conducted a non-invasive genetic study of white-tailed deer in southern Finland in 2016 and 2017 using fecal DNA samples to understand factors influencing white-tailed deer density and space use in late summer prior to the hunting season. We estimated deer density as a function of landcover types using a spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model with individual identities established using microsatellite markers. The study revealed second-order habitat selection with highest deer densities in fields and mixed forest, and third-order habitat selection (detection probability) for transitional woodlands (clear-cuts) and closeness to fields. Including landscape heterogeneity improved model fit and increased inferred total density compared with models assuming a homogenous landscape. Our findings underline the importance of including habitat covariates when estimating density and exemplifies that resource selection can be studied using non-invasive methods.

Ecology and Evolution↗