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At least 1,405 records · Page 78Linked to original sources
USGS2000

Bioavailability of particle-associated Se to the bivalve Potamocorbula amurensis

Elemental selenium, Se(0), is a prevalent chemical form in sediments, but little is known about its bioavailability. We evaluated the bioavailability of two forms of Se(0) by generating radioisotopic 75 Se(0) through bacterial dissimilatory reduction of 75 SeO 3 2 - by pure bacterial cultures (SES) and by an anaerobic sediment microbial consortium (SED). A third form was generated by reducing 75 SeO 3 2 - with ascorbic acid (AA). Speciation determinations showed that AA and SES were >90% Se(0), but SED showed a mixture of Se(0), selenoanions, and a residual fraction. Pulse-chase techniques were used to measure assimilation efficiencies (AE) of these particulate Se forms by the bivalve Potamocorbula amurensis . Mean AE values were 3 ± 2% for AA, 7 ± 1% for SES, and 28 ± 15% for SED, showing that the bioavailability of reduced, particle-associated Se is dependent upon its origin. To determine if oxidative microbial processes increased Se transfer, SES 75 Se(0) was incubated with an aerobic sediment microbial consortium. After 113 d of incubation, 36% of SES Se(0) was oxidized to SeO 3 2 - . Assimilation of total particulate Se was unaffected however (mean AE = 5.5%). The mean AE from the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum was 58 ± 8%, verifying the importance of Se associated with biogenic particles. Speciation and AE results from SED suggest that selenoanion reduction in wetlands and estuaries produces biologically available reduced selenium.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2004

Food web pathway determines how selenium affects aquatic ecosystems: A San francisco Bay case study

Chemical contaminants disrupt ecosystems, but specific effects may be under-appreciated when poorly known processes such as uptake mechanisms, uptake via diet, food preferences, and food web dynamics are influential. Here we show that a combination of food web structure and the physiology of trace element accumulation explain why some species in San Francisco Bay are threatened by a relatively low level of selenium contamination and some are not. Bivalves and crustacean zooplankton form the base of two dominant food webs in estuaries. The dominant bivalve Potamocorbula amurensis has a 10-fold slower rate constant of loss for selenium than do common crustaceans such as copepods and the mysid Neomysis mercedis (rate constant of loss, k e = 0.025, 0.155, and 0.25 d -1 , respectively). The result is much higher selenium concentrations in the bivalve than in the crustaceans. Stable isotope analyses show that this difference is propagated up the respective food webs in San Francisco Bay. Several predators of bivalves have tissue concentrations of selenium that exceed thresholds thought to be associated with teratogenesis or reproductive failure (liver Se >15 μg g - 1 dry weight). Deformities typical of selenium-induced teratogenesis were observed in one of these species. Concentrations of selenium in tissues of predators of zooplankton are less than the thresholds. Basic physiological and ecological processes can drive wide differences in exposure and effects among species, but such processes are rarely considered in traditional evaluations of contaminant impacts.

California↗
USGS2009

PCBs and DDE in tree swallow ( Tachycineta bicolor ) eggs and nestlings from an estuarine PCB superfund site, New Bedford Harbor, MA, U.S.A.

While breeding tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor ) have been used as biomonitors for freshwater sites, we report the first use of this species to assess contaminant bioaccumulation from estuarine breeding grounds into these aerial insectivores. Eggs and nestlings were collected from nest boxes in a polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contaminated estuary, the New Bedford Harbor Superfund site (NBH, Massachusetts, USA), and a reference salt marsh, Fox Hill (FH, Jamestown, Rhode Island, USA). Sediments, eggs, and nestlings were compared on a ng g −1 wet weight basis for total PCBs and DDE (1,1- bis -(4-chlorophenyl)-2,2-dichloroethene), metabolite of DDT (1,1,1-trichloro-2,2- bis -(p-chlorophenyl)ethane). NBH samples contained high concentrations of PCBs compared to FH for sediment (36,500 and 0.2), eggs (11,200 and 323), and nestlings (16,800 and 26). PCB homologue patterns linked tree swallow contamination to NBH sediment. NBH samples were also contaminated with DDE compared to FH for sediment (207 and 0.9) and nestlings (235 and 30) but not for eggs (526 and 488), suggesting both NBH and nonbreeding ground sources for DDE. The relationships between sediment and tree swallow egg and nestling PCBs were similar to those reported for freshwater sites. Like some highly contaminated freshwater sites, NBH PCB bioaccumulation had little apparent effect on reproductive success.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2009

Inputs of fossil carbon from wastewater treatment plants to U.S. Rivers and oceans

Every day more than 500 million cubic meters of treated wastewater are discharged into rivers, estuaries, and oceans, an amount slightly less than the average flow of the Danube River. Typically, wastewaters have high organic carbon (OC) concentrations and represent a large fraction of total river flow and a higher fraction of river OC in densely populated watersheds. Here, we report the first direct measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C) in municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent. The radiocarbon ages of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC and DOC) in effluent are old and relatively uniform across a range of WWTPs in New York and Connecticut. Wastewater DOC has a mean radiocarbon age of 1630 ?? 500 years B.P. and a mean ?? 13 C of -26.0 ?? 1???. Mass balance calculations indicate that 25% of wastewater DOC is fossil carbon, which is likely derived from petroleumbased household products such as detergents and pharmaceuticals. Thesefindings warrant reevaluation of the "apparent age" of riverine DOC, the total flux of petroleum carbon to U.S. oceans, and OC source assignments in waters impacted by sewage. ?? 2009 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2009

Rapid changes in small fish mercury concentrations in estuarine wetlands: Implications for wildlife risk and monitoring programs

Small fish are commonly used to assess mercury (Hg) risk to wildlife and monitor Hg in wetlands. However, limited research has evaluated short-term Hg variability in small fish, which can have important implications for monitoring programs and risk assessment. We conducted a time-series study of Hg concentrations in two small fish species representing benthic (longjaw mudsuckers [Gillichthys mirabilis]) and pelagic (threespine sticklebacks [Gasterosteus aculeatus]) food-webs within three wetland habitats in San Francisco Bay Estuary. We simultaneously monitored prey deliveries, nest initiation, and chick hatching dates of breeding Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri), the most abundant nesting piscivore in the region. Mudsuckers and sticklebacks were the predominant prey fish, comprising 36% and 25% of tern diet, and Hg concentrations averaged (geometric mean ?? SE, ??g/g dw) 0.44 ?? 0.01 and 0.68 ?? 0.03, respectively. Fish Hg concentrations varied substantially over time following a quadratic form in both species, increasing 40% between March and May then decreasing 40% between May and July. Importantly, Forster's terns initiated 68% of nests and 31% of chicks hatched during the period of peak Hg concentrations in prey fish. These results illustrate the importance of short-term temporal variation in small fish Hg concentrations for both Hg monitoring programs and assessing wildlife risk.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2000

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude -0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude -0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude -0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at -0.3769.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗
USGS2002

Contaminants in arctic snow collected over northwest Alaskan sea ice

Snow cores were collected over sea ice from four northwest Alaskan Arctic estuaries that represented the annual snowfall from the 1995-1996 season. Dissolved trace metals, major cations and anions, total mercury, and organochlorine compounds were determined and compared to concentrations in previous arctic studies. Traces (<4 nanograms per liter, ng L-1) of cis- and trans-chlordane, dimethyl 2,3,5,6-tetrachloroterephthalate, dieldrin, endosulfan II, and PCBs were detected in some samples, with endosulfan I consistently present. High chlorpyrifos concentrations (70-80 ng L-1) also were estimated at three sites. The snow was highly enriched in sulfates (69- 394 mg L-1), with high proportions of nonsea salt sulfates at three of five sites (9 of 15 samples), thus indicating possible contamination through long-distance transport and deposition of sulfate-rich atmospheric aerosols. Mercury, cadmium, chromium, molybdenum, and uranium were typically higher in the marine snow (n = 15) in relation to snow from arctic terrestrial studies, whereas cations associated with terrigenous sources, such as aluminum, frequently were lower over the sea ice. One Kasegaluk Lagoon site (Chukchi Sea) had especially high concentrations of total mercury (mean = 214 ng L-1, standard deviation = 5 ng L-1), but no methyl mercury was detected above the method detection limit (0.036 ng L-1) at any of the sites. Elevated concentrations of sulfate, mercury, and certain heavy metals might indicate mechanisms of contaminant loss from the arctic atmosphere over marine water not previously reported over land areas. Scavenging by snow, fog, or riming processes and the high content of deposited halides might facilitate the loss of such contaminants from the atmosphere. Both the mercury and chlorpyrifos concentrations merit further investigation in view of their toxicity to aquatic organisms at low concentrations.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗
USGS2006

Integrated strategy urged to address coastal contamination issues

Coastal bays and estuaries are well known for their intrinsic recreational and economic value, yet these ecosystems are also among our most troubled natural environments. Urban development, agriculture, and shipping are just a few examples of human activities that can cause a wide range of deleterious changes within the coastal environment. These alterations, however, occur simultaneously with cycles of natural variability such as climate change. To effectively manage coastal ecosystems, we need to be able to carefully distinguish between anthropogenic and natural causes of change.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2000

Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long‐term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central and West Regions.

Florida↗
USGS2009

Hindcasting of decadal‐timescale estuarine bathymetric change with a tidal‐timescale model

Hindcasting decadal-timescale bathymetric change in estuaries is prone to error due to limited data for initial conditions, boundary forcing, and calibration; computational limitations further hinder efforts. We developed and calibrated a tidal-timescale model to bathymetric change in Suisun Bay, California, over the 1867–1887 period. A general, multiple-timescale calibration ensured robustness over all timescales; two input reduction methods, the morphological hydrograph and the morphological acceleration factor, were applied at the decadal timescale. The model was calibrated to net bathymetric change in the entire basin; average error for bathymetric change over individual depth ranges was 37%. On a model cell-by-cell basis, performance for spatial amplitude correlation was poor over the majority of the domain, though spatial phase correlation was better, with 61% of the domain correctly indicated as erosional or depositional. Poor agreement was likely caused by the specification of initial bed composition, which was unknown during the 1867–1887 period. Cross-sectional bathymetric change between channels and flats, driven primarily by wind wave resuspension, was modeled with higher skill than longitudinal change, which is driven in part by gravitational circulation. The accelerated response of depth may have prevented gravitational circulation from being represented properly. As performance criteria became more stringent in a spatial sense, the error of the model increased. While these methods are useful for estimating basin-scale sedimentation changes, they may not be suitable for predicting specific locations of erosion or deposition. They do, however, provide a foundation for realistic estuarine geomorphic modeling applications.

California↗
USGS2012

Validation of a coupled wave-flow model in a high-energy setting: the mouth of the Columbia River

A monthlong time series of wave, current, salinity, and suspended-sediment measurements was made at five sites on a transect across the Mouth of Columbia River (MCR). These data were used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of a coupled hydrodynamic and wave model for the MCR based on the Delft3D modeling system. The MCR is a dynamic estuary inlet in which tidal currents, river discharge, and wave-driven currents are all important. Model tuning consisted primarily of spatial adjustments to bottom drag coefficients. In combination with (near-) default parameter settings, the MCR model application is able to simulate the dominant features in the tidal flow, salinity and wavefields observed in field measurements. The wave-orbital averaged method for representing the current velocity profile in the wave model is considered the most realistic for the MCR. The hydrodynamic model is particularly effective in reproducing the observed vertical residual and temporal variations in current structure. Density gradients introduce the observed and modeled reversal of the mean flow at the bed and augment mean and peak flow in the upper half of the water column. This implies that sediment transport during calmer summer conditions is controlled by density stratification and is likely net landward due to the reversal of flow near the bed. The correspondence between observed and modeled hydrodynamics makes this application a tool to investigate hydrodynamics and associated sediment transport.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Sediment trapping and carbon sequestration in floodplains of the lower Atchafalaya Basin, LA: Allochthonous vs. autochthonous carbon sources

Recent studies suggest that about 2 Pg of organic C is stored on floodplains worldwide. The present study indicates the Atchafalaya River, fifth largest river in the United States in terms of discharge, traps 30 mm/y of sediment on average within its floodplain, which is the highest average non‐episodic rate of fluvial deposition on the U.S. Coastal Plain. We installed sediment sampling stations at 23 sites, normally in transect, in the Atchafalaya Basin; these sites represent the range of hydrogeomorphic conditions on the floodplain based on hydrologic connectivity with the river main stem. The rate of sedimentation translates into about 12.5 Tg/y and includes 694 Mg/y of organic C. Highest sedimentation rates are associated with areas of high connectivity to channels and prograding deltaic processes. The δ 13 C content suggests that 35% of deposited C is derived from river‐suspended sediment compared to litterfall in the Basin. Thus, much of the organic C sequestered is allochthonous material. However, isolated interior sites with limited connectivity to the channel may generate and sequester large amounts of autochthonous C. The substantial trapping of both auto‐ and allochthonous C (392 Mg/y) make this freshwater‐forested floodplain critical in storage of material before reaching the coastal delta and estuary. This C deposition rate (340 g C m ‐2 y ‐1 ) exceeds all other rates reported in recent Blue Carbon and Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetland studies. Atchafalaya C sequestration occurs in/near areas with tidal influence and like other coastal systems is an important site for trapping mineral and organic sediment and in global C cycling.

Louisiana↗
USGS2018

Environmental controls, emergent scaling, and predictions of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in coastal salt marshes

Coastal salt marshes play an important role in mitigating global warming by removing atmospheric carbon at a high rate. We investigated the environmental controls and emergent scaling of major greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in coastal salt marshes by conducting data analytics and empirical modeling. The underlying hypothesis is that the salt marsh GHG fluxes follow emergent scaling relationships with their environmental drivers, leading to parsimonious predictive models. CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air and soil temperatures, well water level, soil moisture, and porewater pH and salinity were measured during May–October 2013 from four marshes in Waquoit Bay and adjacent estuaries, MA, USA. The salt marshes exhibited high CO 2 uptake and low CH 4 emission, which did not significantly vary with the nitrogen loading gradient (5–126 kg · ha −1 · year −1 ) among the salt marshes. Soil temperature was the strongest driver of both fluxes, representing 2 and 4–5 times higher influence than PAR and salinity, respectively. Well water level, soil moisture, and pH did not have a predictive control on the GHG fluxes, although both fluxes were significantly higher during high tides than low tides. The results were leveraged to develop emergent power law‐based parsimonious scaling models to accurately predict the salt marsh GHG fluxes from PAR, soil temperature, and salinity (Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.80–0.91). The scaling models are available as a user‐friendly Excel spreadsheet named Coastal Wetland GHG Model to explore scenarios of GHG fluxes in tidal marshes under a changing climate and environment.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2018

Responses of unimpaired flows, storage, and managed flows to scenarios of climate change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta watershed

Projections of meteorology downscaled from global climate model runs were used to drive a model of unimpaired hydrology of the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed, which in turn drove models of operational responses and managed flows. Twenty daily climate change scenarios for water years 1980–2099 were evaluated with the goal of producing inflow boundary conditions for a watershed sediment model and for a hydrodynamical model of the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. The resulting time series of meteorology, snowpack, unimpaired flow, reservoir storage, and managed flow were analyzed for century-scale trends. In the Sacramento basin, which dominates Bay-Delta inflows, all 20 scenarios portrayed warming trends (with a mean of 4.1 °C) and most had precipitation increases (with a mean increase of 9%). Sacramento basin snowpack water equivalent declined sharply (by 89%), which was associated with a major shift toward earlier unimpaired runoff timing (33% more flow arriving prior to 1 April). Sacramento basin reservoirs showed large declines in end-of-September storage. Water-year averaged outflows increased for most scenarios for both unimpaired and impaired flows, and frequency of extremely high daily unimpaired and impaired flows increased (increases of 175% and 170%, respectively). Managed Delta inflows were projected to experience large increases in the wet season and declines in the dry season. Changes in management strategy and infrastructure can mitigate some of these changes, though to what degree is uncertain.

California↗
USGS2019

Temporal variability in nitrate – discharge relationships in large rivers as revealed by high frequency data

Little is known about temporal variability in nitrate concentration responses to changes in discharge on intraannual time scales in large rivers. To investigate this knowledge gap, we used a six‐year data set of daily surface water nitrate concentration and discharge averaged from near‐continuous monitoring at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on the Connecticut, Potomac, and Mississippi Rivers, three large rivers that contribute substantial nutrient pollution to important estuaries. Interannually, a comparison of nitrate concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) relationships between a traditional discrete grab sample data set and the near‐continuous data set revealed differing c‐Q slopes, which suggests that sample frequency can impact how we ultimately characterize hydrologic systems. Intraannually, we conducted correlation analyses over 30‐day windows to isolate the strength and direction of monthly c‐Q relationships. Monthly c‐Q slopes in the Potomac were positive (enrichment/mobilization response) in summer and fall and negative (dilution response) and weakly chemostatic (nonsignificant near‐zero c‐Q slope) in winter and spring, respectively. The Connecticut displayed a dilution response year‐round, except summer when it was weakly chemostatic. Mississippi c‐Q slopes were weakly chemostatic in all seasons and showed inconsistent responses to discharge fluctuations. The c‐Q dynamics in the Potomac and Connecticut were correlated ( R > 0.3) to river temperature, flow percentile, and calendar day. Minimal correlation in the Mississippi suggests that the large basin area coupled with spatiotemporally variable anthropogenic forcings from substantial land use development created stochastic short‐term c‐Q relationships. Additional work using high‐frequency sensors across large river networks can improve our understanding of spatial source input dynamics in these natural‐human coupled systems.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2019

Morphodynamic resilience of intertidal mudflats on a seasonal time scale

Intertidal mudflats are morphodynamic features present in many estuaries worldwide. Often located between vegetated shores and deep channels they comprise valuable ecosystems and serve to protect the hinterland by attenuating waves. Although mudflats are persistently present on yearly to decadal time scales, little is known on their morphodynamic adaptation to short‐term variations in forcing such as storms, spring‐neap tidal cycles, and sediment supply. This study aims to explore the morphodynamic resilience of mudflats to seasonal variations in forcing. First, we compare transects observed in South Bay, California, at 3‐ to 6‐monthly intervals. Second, we present the results of a process‐based, morphodynamic profile model (Mflat). Mflat is an open source, Matlab code that describes both cross‐shore and alongshore tidal hydrodynamics as well as a stationary wave model. An advection‐diffusion equation solves sediment transport while bed level changes occur by the divergence of the sediment transport field. Mflat reproduces the observed South San Francisco Bay profile in equilibrium with significant skill. Short‐term variations in hydrodynamic forcing and sediment characteristics disturb the profile mainly at the channel‐shoal edge. The modeled profile disturbance is consistent with observations. The modeled profile is remarkably resilient since it recovers to the equilibrium profile within weeks to months. The model results suggest that 3‐monthly observation intervals are probably too long to discriminate processes responsible for the profile disturbance. These processes may include variations in sediment supply, mudflat erodibility, and wave action as well as the spring‐neap tidal cycle.

California↗
USGS2022

Regional-scale mapping of landscape response to extreme precipitation using repeat lidar and object-based image analysis

Extreme precipitation events may cause flooding, slope failure, erosion, deposition, and damage to infrastructure over a regional scale, but the impacts of these events are often difficult to fully characterize. Regional-scale landscape change occurred during an extreme rain event in June 2012 in northeastern Minnesota. Landscape change was documented by 8,000 km 2 of airborne lidar data collected before and after the event. Following improved alignment of the lidar point data and reducing error using insight from analysis of extensive stable areas, elevation differences were classified into map objects representing geomorphic change in relation to process and landscape position using object-based image analysis. This remote mapping compares favorably to field and imagery-based mapping and provides the basis for volumetric sediment budgeting. Elevation differences in these objects indicate that 4.5 × 10 6 ± 1.0 × 10 6 m 3 of sediment was eroded in the study area. Of this, 2.5 × 10 6 ± 3.3 × 10 5 m 3 was deposited in deposits on hillslopes and valley floors, and 2.0 × 10 6 ± 4.6 × 10 5 m 3 were removed from watersheds and exported to the Saint Louis River Estuary and Lake Superior. Multivariate logistic regression analysis emphasized that topographic slope and presence of glaciolacustrine clay lithology are the primary control on landslide occurrence, and landslides occur most frequently on slopes within tens of meters of stream channels. These results provide the basis to anticipate the impacts of similar future storm events. Because precipitation events are forecast to continue to increase in frequency and intensity owing to climate change, characterizing and anticipating their effects may support hazard planning.

Minnesota↗
USGS2023

Future marsh evolution due to tidal changes induced by human adaptation to sea level rise

With sea level rise threatening coastal development, decision-makers are beginning to act by modifying shorelines. Previous research has shown that hardening or softening shorelines may change the tidal range under future sea level rise. Tidal range can also be changed by natural factors. Coastal marshes, which humans increasingly depend on for shoreline protection, are ecologically sensitive to tidal range. Therefore, it is critical to examine how changes in tidal range could influence marsh processes. A marsh accretion model was used to investigate the ecological response of a San Francisco Bay, California, USA marsh to multiple tidal range scenarios and sea level rise from 2010 to 2100. The scenarios include a baseline scenario with no shoreline modifications in the estuary, a shoreline hardening scenario that amplifies the tidal range, and 14 tidal range scenarios as a sensitivity analysis that span tidal amplification and reduction of the baseline scenario. The modeling results expose key tradeoffs to consider when planning for sea level rise. Compared to the baseline, the hardening scenario shows minor differences. However, further tidal amplification prolongs marsh survival but decreases Sarcocornia pacifica cover, an important species for certain threatened wildlife and an effective attenuator of wave energy. Conversely, tidal reduction precipitates marsh drowning but shows gains in Sarcocornia pacifica cover. These mixed impacts of tidal amplification and reduction shown by the model indicate potential tradeoffs in relation to marsh survival, habitat characteristics, and shoreline protection. This study suggests the need for a cross-sectoral, regional approach to sea level rise adaptation.

California↗