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At least 1,405 records · Page 78Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Threshold responses of songbirds to forest loss and fragmentation across the Marcellus-Utica shale gas region

Context Since 2005, unconventional gas develop[1]ment has rapidly altered forests across the Marcellus[1]Utica shale basin in the central Appalachian region of the eastern United States, an area of high conservation value for biodiversity. Much is still unknown about ecological impacts of associated land cover change. Objectives Our goal was to identify threshold responses among bird species and habitat guilds to (1) overall forest loss and fragmentation in affected landscapes, and (2) distance from anthropogenic landscapes, and (2) distance from anthropogenic disturbance, both related and unrelated to shale gas. Methods We conducted 2589 bird surveys at 190 sites across this region, and quantified community[1]level and species-specific thresholds relating to forest cover and distance to anthropogenic disturbance, using Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN). Results Forest interior species decreased abruptly in abundance and frequency of occurrence above a threshold of 17.0% overall forest loss, while early successional and synanthropic species increased abruptly above 30.5–36.5% forest loss, respectively. Broad quantile intervals around responses to distance from anthropogenic disturbance suggest these were not sharp threshold responses, but more gradual or linear responses. Among forest interior species evaluated, 48.1% increased in abundance farther from shale gas development, while 55.6% of early successional and synanthropic species decreased. Conclusions We found evidence of avian threshold responses to overall forest loss and fragmentation in affected landscapes across the Marcellus-Utica shale region. Our results suggest that efforts to avoid shale gas development in regional core forests—particularly those still retaining C 83% forest cover—can reduce negative effects on area-sensitive, forest interior dependent species

Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virgi↗
USGS2019

Incorporating citizen science data in spatially explicit integrated population models

Information about population abundance, distribution, and demographic rates is critical for understanding a species’ ecology and for effective conservation and management. To collect data over large spatial and temporal extents for such inferences, especially for species with low densities or wide distributions, citizen science can be an efficient approach. Integrated models have also emerged as an important methodology to estimate population parameters by combining multiple types of data, including citizen science data. We developed a spatially explicit integrated model that combines opportunistically collected presence–absence (PA) data, commonly collected in citizen science efforts, with systematically collected spatial capture–recapture (SCR) data, which are often limited to small spatial and temporal extents. We conducted single and multi‐season simulations with parameters informed by North American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) populations, to evaluate the influence of varying amounts of opportunistic PA data collected at larger spatial and temporal extents on the estimation of population‐level parameters. Integrating opportunistic PA data increased the precision and accuracy of posterior estimates of abundance, and survival and recruitment rates. In some cases, adding PA locations improved abundance estimates more than increasing PA detection probability. Posterior estimates were as precise and unbiased as when higher quality, but sparse, SCR data were available. We also applied the integrated model to SCR and citizen science PA data collected on black bears in New York, with results consistent with our simulations. Our findings indicate that citizen science in integrated models can be a cost‐efficient way to improve estimates of population parameters and increase the spatiotemporal extent of inference. Continued developments with integrated models and citizen science data will offer additional ways to improve our understanding of population structure and demographics.

Ecology↗
USGS2013

Bird-vegetation associations in thinned and unthinned young Douglas-fir forests 10 years after thinning

Quantitative associations between animals and vegetation have long been used as a basis for conservation and management, as well as in formulating predictions about the influence of resource management and climate change on populations. A fundamental assumption embedded in the use of such correlations is that they remain relatively consistent over time. However, this assumption of stationarity has been rarely tested – even for forest birds, which are frequently considered to be 'indicator species' in management operations. We investigated the temporal dynamics of bird-vegetation relationships in young Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests over more than a decade following initial anthropogenic disturbance (commercial thinning). We modeled bird occurrence or abundance as a function of vegetation characteristics for eight common bird species for each of six breeding seasons following forest thinning. Generally, vegetation relationships were highly inconsistent in magnitude across years, but remained positive or negative within species. For 3 species, relationships that were initially strong dampened over time. For other species, strength of vegetation association was apparently stochastic. These findings indicate that caution should be used when interpreting weak bird-vegetation relationships found in short-term studies and parameterizing predictive models with data collected over the short term.

Oregon↗
USGS2024

An assessment of N, P, Fe, Zn, Ni and Mo limitation on suspended nutrient diffusing substrates in nearshore areas of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie

In large lakes, metal availability sometimes limits the acquisition of nutrients (nitrogen, N and phosphorus, P) in offshore waters that are relatively isolated from tributaries and sediments. We hypothesize that metals may also be important within harmful algal blooms (HABs). HABs occur where nutrient loads are elevated, but bioassays often indicate that phytoplankton in HABs are N or P limited. Nutrient limitation may be exacerbated by corresponding limitations in several metals (i.e. nickel - Ni, molybdenum - Mo, zinc - Zn, and iron - Fe) that facilitate uptake and transformation of oxidized and organic forms of nutrients, such as urea, nitrate and organic phosphorus. The cyanotoxin microcystin has been hypothesized to have a role in metal management, so metal demand may also influence the toxicity of HABs. Here, we used nutrient diffusing substrates to measure how N, P, Ni, Mo, Zn and Fe amendments influenced the growth and toxicity of periphyton. Periphyton was grown suspended in 10 nearshore sites in Lake Michigan and Lake Erie (5 with and 5 without perennial HABs). Outside of blooms, we found no evidence for metal limitation or co-limitation. However, evidence for metal co-limitation was observed in two HABs sites (Zn in Green Bay and Zn, Mo, Ni and Fe in Sandusky Bay). N, P and Zn amendments all stimulated microcystin content in Maumee Bay. These data indicate that nutrient limitation occurs even within blooms, and the availability of metals may have an influence on growth, community composition and toxicity.

Lake Michigan, Lake Erie↗
USGS2006

Community maturity, species saturation and the variant diversity- productivity relationships in grasslands

Detailed knowledge of the relationship between plant diversity and productivity is critical for advancing our understanding of ecosystem functioning and for achieving success in habitat restoration efforts. However, effects and interactions of diversity, succession and biotic invasions on productivity remain elusive. We studied newly established communities in relation to preexisting homogeneous vegetation invaded by exotic plants in the northern Great Plains, USA, at four study sites for 3 years. We observed variant diversity-productivity relationships for the seeded communities (generally positive monotonic at three sites and non-monotonic at the other site) but no relationships for the resident community or the seeded and resident communities combined at all sites and all years. Community richness was enhanced by seeding additional species but productivity was not. The optimal diversity (as indicated by maximum productivity) changed among sites and as the community developed. The findings shed new light on ecosystem functioning of biodiversity under different conditions and have important implications for restoration. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Ecology Letters↗
USGS2005

Carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus accumulation in floodplains of Atlantic Coastal Plain rivers, USA

Net nutrient accumulation rates were measured in riverine floodplains of the Atlantic Coastal Plain in Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware, USA. The floodplains were located in watersheds with different land use and included two sites on the Chickahominy River (urban), one site on the Mattaponi River (forested), and five sites on the Pocomoke River (agricultural). The Pocomoke River floodplains lie along reaches with natural hydrogeomorphology and on reaches with restricted flooding due to channelization and levees. A network of feldspar clay marker horizons was placed on the sediment surface of each floodplain site 3–6 years prior to sampling. Sediment cores were collected from the material deposited over the feldspar clay pads. This overlying sediment was separated from the clay layer and then dried, weighed, and analyzed for its total carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) content. Mean C accumulation rates ranged from 61 to 212 g·m −2 ·yr −1 , N accumulation rates ranged from 3.5 to 13.4 g·m −2 ·yr −1 , and P accumulation rates ranged from 0.2 to 4.1 g·m −2 ·yr −1 among the eight floodplains. Patterns of intersite variation in mineral sediment and P accumulation rates were similar to each other, as was variation in organic sediment and C and N accumulation rates. The greatest sediment and C, N, and P accumulation rates were observed on Chickahominy River floodplains downstream from the growing metropolitan area of Richmond, Virginia. Nutrient accumulation rates were lowest on Pocomoke River floodplains that have been hydraulically disconnected from the main channel by channelization and levees. Sediment P concentrations and P accumulation rates were much greater on the hydraulically connected floodplain immediately downstream of the limit of channelization and dense chicken agriculture of the upper Pocomoke River watershed. These findings indicate that (1) watershed land use has a large effect on sediment and nutrient retention in floodplains, and (2) limiting the hydraulic connectivity between river channels and floodplains minimizes material retention by floodplains in fluvial hydroscapes.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2014

Anuran site occupancy and species richness as tools for evaluating restoration of a hydrologically-modified landscape

A fundamental goal of wetland restoration is to reinstate pre-disturbance hydrological conditions to degraded landscapes, facilitating recolonization by native species and the production of resilient, functional ecosystems. To evaluate restoration success, baseline conditions need to be determined and a reference target needs to be established that will serve as an ecological blueprint in the restoration process. During the summer wet seasons of 2010 and 2011, we used automated recording units to monitor a community of calling anuran amphibians in the Picayune Strand State Forest of Southwest Florida, USA. This area is undergoing hydrological restoration as part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. We compared occurrence of anurans at sites in the restoration area, to nearby locations in relatively undisturbed habitat (reference sites). We assessed the utility of the latter as restoration targets, using a hierarchical model of community species occupancy to estimate the probability of occurrence of anurans in restoration and reference locations. We detected 14 species, 13 of which were significantly more likely to occur in reference areas. All 14 species were estimated by our model to occur at these sites but, across both years, only 8–13 species were estimated to occur at restoration sites. The composition and structure of these habitats within and adjacent to the Picayune Strand State Forest indicate that they are suitable targets for habitat restoration, as measured by amphibian occurrence and species richness. These areas are important sources for recolonization of anuran amphibians as the hydrologically degraded Picayune Strand undergoes restoration to mitigate the effects of overdrainage and habitat loss.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Hunting mode and habitat selection mediate the success of human hunters

Background As a globally widespread apex predator, humans have unprecedented lethal and non-lethal effects on prey populations and ecosystems. Yet compared to non-human predators, little is known about the movement ecology of human hunters, including how hunting behavior interacts with the environment. Methods We characterized the hunting modes, habitat selection, and harvest success of 483 rifle hunters in California using high-resolution GPS data. We used Hidden Markov Models to characterize fine-scale movement behavior, and k-means clustering to group hunters by hunting mode, on the basis of their time spent in each behavioral state. Finally, we used Resource Selection Functions to quantify patterns of habitat selection for successful and unsuccessful hunters of each hunting mode. Results Hunters exhibited three distinct and successful hunting modes (“coursing”, “stalking”, and “sit-and-wait”), with coursings as the most successful strategy. Across hunting modes, there was variation in patterns of selection for roads, topography, and habitat cover, with differences in habitat use of successful and unsuccessful hunters across modes. Conclusions Our study indicates that hunters can successfully employ a diversity of harvest strategies, and that hunting success is mediated by the interacting effects of hunting mode and landscape features. Such results highlight the breadth of human hunting modes, even within a single hunting technique, and lend insight into the varied ways that humans exert predation pressure on wildlife.

California↗
USGS1998

Estimating species richness: The importance of heterogeneity in species detectability

Estimating species richness (i.e., the actual number of species present in a given area) is a basic objective of many field studies carried out in community ecology and is also of crucial concern when dealing with the conservation and management of biodiversity. In most studies, the total number of species recorded in an area at a given time is taken as a measure of species richness. Here we use a capture–recapture approach to species richness estimation with North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data in order to estimate species detectability and thus gain insight about its importance. In particular, competing models making different assumptions about species detectability are available. We carried out analyses on all survey routes of four states, Arizona, Maryland, North Dakota, and Wisconsin, in two years, 1970 and 1990. These states were chosen to provide contrasting habitats, bird species composition, and survey quality. We investigated the effect of state, year, and observer ability on the proportions of different models selected, and on estimates of detectability and species richness. Our results indicate that model M h , which assumes heterogeneous detection probability among species, is frequently appropriate for estimating species richness from BBS data. Species detectability varied among states and was higher for the more skilled observers. These results emphasize the need to take into account potential heterogeneities in detectability among species in studies of factors affecting species richness.

Ecology↗
USGS2022

Quantifying connectivity and its effects on sediment budgeting for an agricultural basin, Chesapeake Bay Watershed, United States

Excessive sediment runoff as a result of anthropogenic activities is a major concern for watershed ecologic health. This study sought to determine the sources, storage, and delivery of sediment using a sediment budget approach for the predominantly pasture and forested Smith Creek watershed, Virginia United States, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. Utilizing a novel combination of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) model and an index of connectivity along with field surveys of channels, this study indicated that streambanks and pastures were major sources of sediment. Overestimation of fine-grained sediment flux exported from the watershed according to this study's models (3811 Mg/year) compared to export measured at the outlet (2918 Mg/year) most likely indicates underestimation of storage in the watershed from unaccounted for geomorphic features (ponds, toe slopes, and colluvial slopes). Sediment budget results indicating that streambanks are a major source of sediment in the watershed support previous sediment fingerprinting results and provide a framework for managers to address the sediment problem in Smith Creek and similar tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗
USGS2008

Parent-offspring communication in the western sandpiper

Western sandpiper (Calidris mauri) chicks are precocial and leave the nest shortly after hatch to forage independently. Chicks require thermoregulatory assistance from parents (brooding) for 5-7 days posthatch, and parents facilitate chick survival for 2-3 weeks posthatch by leading and defending chicks. Parental vocal signals are likely involved in protecting chicks from predators, preventing them from wandering away and becoming lost and leading them to good foraging locations. Using observational and experimental methods in the field, we describe and demonstrate the form and function of parent-chick communication in the western sandpiper. We document 4 distinct calls produced by parents that are apparently directed toward their chicks (brood, gather, alarm, and freeze calls). Through experimental playback of parental and non-parental vocalizations to chicks in a small arena, we demonstrated the following: 1) chicks respond to the alarm call by vocalizing relatively less often and moving away from the signal source, 2) chicks respond to the gather call by vocalizing relatively more often and moving toward the signal source, and 3) chicks respond to the freeze call by vocalizing relatively less often and crouching motionless on the substrate for extended periods of time. Chicks exhibited consistent directional movement and space use to parental and non-parental signals. Although fewer vocalizations were given in response to non-parental signals, which may indicate a weaker response to unfamiliar individuals, the relative number of chick calls given to each type of call signal was consistent between parental and non-parental signals. We also discovered 2 distinct chick vocalizations (chick-contact and chick-alarm calls) during arena playback experiments. Results indicate that sandpiper parents are able to elicit antipredatory chick behaviors and direct chick movement and vocalizations through vocal signals. Future study of parent-offspring communication should determine whether shorebird chicks exhibit parental recognition though vocalizations and the role of chick vocalizations in parental behavior. ?? The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Society for Behavioral Ecology. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Ecology↗
USGS2025

Spatial patterns and temporal trends in water quality in Idaho’s lower Boise River and its tributaries, 1994–2023

The lower Boise River in southwestern Idaho is a vital cultural, economic, and ecological resource, but some of its beneficial uses are impaired by excess algae, sediment, nutrients, and bacteria. In response, a variety of water quality improvement projects and regulations have been implemented in recent decades. A recent study showed that, from water years 2003 to 2021, concentrations of total phosphorus at the mouth of the Boise River near Parma decreased by 60 percent, indicating the success of the improvement projects and progress towards reaching the regulatory target. However, although the progress of the system as a whole towards reaching the total phosphorus target is well documented, quantifying contributions and trends in total phosphorus loading from individual tributaries and upstream mainstem locations is needed. Similarly, tributary contributions and trends of other constituents of concern are unknown or have not been evaluated in a decade. To evaluate the success of past water-quality improvement efforts and help prioritize future investments, this study characterized spatial and seasonal patterns in concentrations and loads of suspended sediment, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, Escherichia coli bacteria, and periphyton chlorophyll a (chl-a) at three mainstem and seven tributary sites of the lower Boise River during water years 2019–2023. For sites and constituents with adequate data, temporal trends over a 15-year and 30-year period were also evaluated. Recent (in other words, water years 2019–2023) concentrations and loads of suspended sediment and total phosphorus were typically greatest during the irrigation season and often exceeded total maximum daily load targets. However, concentrations and loads of suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate have decreased over the past 15 to 30 years at many sites. In contrast, concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate plus nitrite showed increasing trends at the Boise River near Parma, likely reflecting the effects of regional changes in agricultural practices in recent decades. Periphyton chl-a concentrations during October–November were highly likely increasing over the 30-year period at Boise River at Eckert, but were uncertain at Middleton and Parma. At Boise River at Middleton, periphyton chl-a concentrations exceeded the total maximum daily load target of 150 milligrams per square meter in 75 percent of samples during water years 2019–2023. Results therefore demonstrate that past watershed improvement efforts have been largely effective at reducing concentrations and loads of suspended sediment, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate in the lower Boise River watershed, but different strategies may be needed to reduce concentrations and loads of total nitrogen, nitrate plus nitrite, Escherichia coli , and periphyton chl-a.

Idaho↗
USGS2024

Mechanisms by which marine heatwaves impact seabirds

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are characterized by periods of extreme warming of local to basin-scale marine habitat. Effects of MHWs on some seabirds (e.g. mass die-offs) are well documented, but mechanisms by which seabirds respond to MHWs remain poorly understood. Following from a symposium at the 3 rd World Seabird Conference, this Theme Section presents recent research to address this knowledge gap. Studies included here spanned one or more MHW event, at spatial scales from individual seabird colonies to large marine ecosystems in subtropical, temperate, and polar oceans, and over timespans from months to decades. The findings summarized herein indicate that MHWs can affect seabirds directly by creating physiological heat stress that affects behavior or survival, or indirectly by disrupting seabird food webs, largely by altering metabolic rates in ectothermic prey species, leading to effects on their associated predators and prey. Four main mechanisms by which MHWs affect seabirds are (1) habitat modification, (2) physiological forcing, (3) behavioral responses, and (4) ecological processes or species interactions. Most seabird species have experienced limited effects from MHWs to date, owing to ecological and behavioral adaptations that buffer MHW effects. However, the intensity and frequency of MHWs is increasing due to global warming, and more seabird species may have difficulty coping with future heatwave events. Also, MHW impacts can persist for years after a MHW ends, so consequences of recent or future MHWs could continue to unfold over time for many long-lived seabird species.

MEPS↗
USGS2018

Exotic predators may threaten another island ecosystem: A comprehensive assessment of python and boa reports from the Florida Keys

Summarizing historical records of potentially invasive species increases understanding of propagule pressure, spatiotemporal trends, and establishment risk of these species. We compiled records of non-native pythons and boas from the Florida Keys, cross-referenced them to eliminate duplicates, and categorized each record’s credibility. We report on 159 observations of six python and boa species in the Florida Keys over the past 17 years. Burmese pythons (Python bivittatus), boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), and ball pythons (Python regius) are the most frequently reported species, but credible records of three additional species were also reported. Among the most notable records, we report on three hatchling and multiple reproductive Burmese pythons captured on North Key Largo since 2016, indicating that the species is now established on that island. The expanding mainland Burmese python population and ongoing python and boa introductions via pet and cargo pathways are likely to keep propagule pressure high in coming years. Both effective public outreach to solicit reporting of sightings and effective early detection and rapid response networks may help to prevent further establishment and associated ecological impacts of python and boa species in the Florida Keys.

Florida↗
USGS2010

Habitat suitability and conservation of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley of California

Resource managers often have little information regarding the habitat requirements and distribution of rare species. Factor analysis-based habitat suitability models describe the ecological niche of a species and identify locations where these conditions occur on the landscape using existing occurrence data.We used factor analyses to assess the suitability of habitats for Thamnophis gigas (Giant Gartersnake), a rare, threatened species endemic to the Central Valley of California, USA, and to map the locations of habitat suitable for T. gigas in the Sacramento Valley. Factor analyses indicated that the niche of T. gigas is composed of sites near rice agriculture with low stream densities. Sites with high canal densities and near wetlands also appeared suitable, but results for these variables were sensitive to potential sampling bias. In the Sacramento Valley, suitable habitats occur primarily in the central portion of the valley floor. Based upon the results of the factor analyses, recovery planning for T. gigas will require an on-the-ground assessment of the current distribution and abundance of T. gigas, maintaining the few remaining natural wetlands and the practice of rice agriculture in the Sacramento Valley, and studying the effects of agricultural practices and land use changes on populations of T. gigas.

California↗
USGS2007

Alternative community structures in a kelp-urchin community: A qualitative modeling approach

Shifts in interaction patterns within a community may result from periodic disturbances and climate. The question arises as to the extent and significance of these shifting patterns. Using a novel approach to link qualitative mathematical models and field data, namely using the inverse matrix to identify the community matrix, we reconstructed community networks from kelp forests off the Oregon Coast. We simulated all ecologically plausible interactions among community members, selected the models whose outcomes match field observations, and identified highly frequent links to characterize the community network from a particular site. We tested all possible biologically reasonable community networks through qualitative simulations, selected those that matched patterns observed in the field, and further reduced the set of possibilities by retaining those that were stable. We found that a community can be represented by a set of alternative structures, or scenarios. From 11,943,936 simulated models, 0.23% matched the field observations; moreover, only 0.006%, or 748 models, were highly reliable in their predictions and met conditions for stability. Predator-prey interactions as well as non-predatory relationships were consistently found in most of the 748 models. These highly frequent connections were useful to characterize the community network in the study site. We suggest that alternative networks provide the community with a buffer to disturbance, allowing it to continuously reorganize to adapt to a variable environment. This is possible due to the fluctuating capacities of foraging species to consume alternate resources. This suggestion is sustained by our results, which indicate that none of the models that matched field observations were fully connected. This plasticity may contribute to the persistence of these communities. We propose that qualitative simulations represent a powerful technique to raise new hypotheses concerning community dynamics and to reconstruct guidelines that may govern community patterns. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2021

Simulation of dissolved organic carbon flux in the Penobscot Watershed, Maine

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an important component of the carbon cycle as a measure of the hydrological transport of carbon between terrestrial carbon pools into soil pools and eventually into streams. As a result, changes in DOC in rivers and streams may indicate alterations in the storage of terrestrial carbon. Exploring the complex interactions between biogeochemical cycling and hydrologic processes, as well as the micro-climate variabilities that impact the rate of DOC fluxes, are challenging because the information is not readily available from in-situ measurements or from empirical models alone. This is particularly true of large-scale watersheds. The Penobscot Watershed is the largest watershed of the Gulf of Maine and the second largest in New England. Its typical soils, with high organic matter and a large forested and wetland landscape, result in higher DOC fluxes than what has been observed previously for most rivers in the northern temperate or boreal zones (Hope et al., 1994; Mulholland, 1997; Aitkenhead and McDowell, 2000). In this study, we emphasized the simulation of streamflow and DOC fluxes from the Penobscot Watershed (and several tributaries within the Penobscot Watershed) using the spatially distributed process-based Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model. Simulated results were evaluated using field measurements (streamflow, DOC fluxes) and remotely sensed products (Net Primary Production (NPP) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The average DOC flux for the Penobscot Watershed during 2004-2012 using the RHESSys model was 69 kg C/ha/year. The RHESSys simulated DOC flux is shown to correlate well with observed values, as well as with results previously reported from the empirical Load Estimator (LOADEST) model (71 kg C/ha/year) for 2004-2007 ( Huntington and Aiken, 2013). Our simulated results also show a temporal variation in the amount of DOC flux, indicating that the antecedent DOC concentration from one year can impact the DOC export in following years. Thus, DOC concentration is positively correlated with streamflow and antecedent precipitation, in agreement with previous studies (Ågren et al., 2010; Huntington and Aiken, 2013; Tian et al., 2013 ). The successful application of the rigorous RHESSys model in the Penobscot Watershed makes it a reasonable platform to test future scenarios impacting the hydrology and biogeochemistry within similar large complex watersheds.

Maine↗
USGS2022

Evaluating sources of bias in pedigree-based estimates of breeding population size

Applications of genetic-based estimates of population size are expanding, especially for species for which traditional demographic estimation methods are intractable due to the rarity of adult encounters. Estimates of breeding population size ( N S ) are particularly amenable to genetic-based approaches as the parameter can be estimated using pedigrees reconstructed from genetic data gathered from discrete juvenile cohorts, therefore eliminating the need to sample adults in the population. However, a critical evaluation of how genotyping and sampling effort influence bias in pedigree reconstruction, and how these biases subsequently influence estimates of N S , is needed to evaluate the efficacy of the approach under a range of scenarios. We simulated a model system to understand the interactive effects of genotyping and sampling effort on error in genetic pedigrees reconstructed from the program COLONY . We then evaluated how errors in pedigree reconstruction influenced bias and precision in estimates of N S using three different rarefaction estimators. Results indicated that pedigree error can be minimal when adequate genetic data are available, such as when juvenile sample sizes are large and/or individuals are genotyped at many informative loci. However, even in cases for which data are limited, using results of the simulation analysis to understand the magnitude and sources of bias in reconstructed pedigrees can still be informative when estimating N S . We applied results of the simulation analysis to evaluate Nˆ S for a population of federally endangered Atlantic sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) in the Delaware River, USA. Our results indicated that N S is likely to be three orders of magnitude lower compared with historic breeding population sizes, which is a considerable advancement in our understanding of the population status of Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. Our analyses are broadly applicable in the design and interpretation of studies seeking to estimate N S and can help to guide conservation decisions when ecological uncertainty is high. The utility of these results is expected to grow as rapid advances in genetic technologies increase the popularity of genetic population monitoring and estimation.

Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania↗