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USGS2021

A hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival when age and size are uncertain

Estimates of age-specific survival probabilities are needed for age-structured population models and to inform conservation decisions. However, determining the age of individuals in wildlife populations is often problematic. We present a hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival from capture–recapture or capture–recapture–recovery data when age is unknown and indicators of age, such as size and growth layer counts, are imprecise. The model is evaluated through simulations, and its implementation is illustrated with maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches in commonly used software. The model is then applied to genetic capture–recapture data of Florida manatees to estimate age- and time-variant survival probabilities. The approach is broadly applicable to studies aiming to quantify age-specific effects of environmental change and management actions on population dynamics, including studies that rely on minimally invasive methods such as genetic and photo identification.

Ecology↗
USGS2017

Synthesis centers as critical research infrastructure

Demand for the opportunity to participate in a synthesis-center activity has increased in the years since the US National Science Foundation (NSF)–funded National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) opened its doors in 1995 and as more scientists across a diversity of scientific disciplines have become aware of what synthesis centers provide. The NSF has funded four synthesis centers, and more than a dozen new synthesis centers have been established around the world, some following the NSF model and others following different models suited to their national funding environment ( http://synthesis-consortium.org ). Scientific synthesis integrates diverse data and knowledge to increase the scope and applicability of results and yield novel insights or explanations within and across disciplines (Pickett et al. 2007 , Carpenter et al. 2009 ). The demand for synthesis comes from the pressing societal need to address grand challenges related to global change and other issues that cut across multiple societal sectors and disciplines and from recognition that substantial added scientific value can be achieved through the synthesis-based analysis of existing data. Demand also comes from groups of scientists who see exciting opportunities to generate new knowledge from interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary collaboration, often capitalizing on the increasingly large volume and variety of available data (Kelling et al. 2009 , Bishop et al. 2014 , Specht et al. 2015b ). The ever-changing nature of societal challenges and the availability of data with which to address them suggest there will be an expanding need for synthesis. However, we are now entering a phase in which government support for some existing synthesis centers has ended or will be ending soon, forcing those centers to close or develop new operational models, approaches, and funding streams. We argue here that synthesis centers play such a unique role in science that continued long-term public investment to maximize benefits to science and society is justified. In particular, we argue that synthesis centers represent community infrastructure more akin to research vessels than to term-funded centers of science and technology (e.g., NSF Science and Technology Centers). Through our experience running synthesis centers and, in some cases, developing postfederal funding models, we offer our perspective on the purpose and value of synthesis centers. We present case studies of different outcomes of transition plans and argue for a fundamental shift in the conception of synthesis science and the strategic funding of these centers by government funding agencies.

BioScience↗
USGS2009

Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response thresholds, which are commonly driven by geomorphic thresholds or mediated by geomorphic processes, and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in the effects of flows on ecosystems, which can result from factors such as longitudinal complexity and ecohydrological feedbacks. ?? Published 2009.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2011

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse‐time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6 years of capture–recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0·41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0·51–0·54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0·75–0·78) but lower recruitment rates (0·25). Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

Real-time oil spill concentration assessment through fluorescence imaging and deep learning

Oil spills may pose severe ecological and socioeconomic threats, necessitating rapid and accurate environmental assessment. Traditional assessment methods used to determine the extent of a spill including gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, satellite imaging, and visual surveys, are often time-consuming, expensive, and limited by weather conditions or sampling constraints. Furthermore, these methods frequently struggle to provide real-time data crucial for prompt decision-making during spill emergencies. This study addresses these limitations by combining fluorescence imaging, deep learning, a mobile application, and a data management system for automated and real-time oil spill assessment. Our approach leverages a convolutional neural network architecture for feature extraction coupled with a custom regression model, trained and evaluated on a self-curated comprehensive dataset of 1,530 fluorescence images from two distinct oil types, a napthalenic crude oil and an aromatic-napthalenic crude oil, at concentrations ranging from 0 to 500 mg/L. The proposed approach demonstrates superior performance compared to both traditional machine learning models and more complex deep learning architectures, achieving an R² score of 0.9958 and RMSE of 9.28. The application enables rapid, cost-effective field measurements with robust data tracking and analysis capabilities. This research advances oil spill monitoring technology with a scalable solution that balances accuracy, speed, and accessibility for real-time environmental assessment and emergency response.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗
USGS2010

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2025

The 3D Elevation Program—Supporting the economy of Massachusetts

Introduction Massachusetts extends from the mountains of the Appalachian system in the west of the State to the sandy beaches and rocky shorelines of the Atlantic coast in the east. Inland topographic data support a wide range of important activities, including geologic mapping, transportation planning, forest and wildlife management, quantifying ecological services, water supply protection, commonwealth-wide infrastructure planning, local site planning, and flood-plain management. Nearshore bathymetry can be used to support coastal portions of the Commonwealth by addressing the combined threats of ocean warming, strong storm surge, and rising sea levels. The maintenance and (or) expansion of Massachusetts ports (for instance, Boston, New Bedford) and Cape Cod sediment management depends upon the accurate mapping of bathymetry and the frequent influx of sediment and redeposition. Critical applications that address the broad range of requirements depend on light detection and ranging (lidar) data that provide a highly detailed three-dimensional (3D) model of the Earth’s surface and aboveground features. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with Federal, State, Tribal, U.S. territorial, and local agencies to acquire consistent lidar coverage at quality level 2 or better to meet the many needs of the Nation and Massachusetts. The status of available and in-progress 3DEP baseline lidar data in Massachusetts is shown in figure 1. 3DEP baseline lidar data include quality level 2 or better, 1-meter or better digital elevation models, and lidar point clouds, and must meet the Lidar Base Specification version 1.2 ( https://www.usgs.gov/3dep/lidarspec ) or newer requirements. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment identified user requirements and conservatively estimated that availability of lidar data would result in at least $1.23 million in new benefits annually to Massachusetts. The top 10 Massachusetts business uses for 3D elevation data, which are based on the estimated annual conservative benefits of 3DEP, are shown in table 2.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2009

Geomorphic segmentation, hydraulic geometry, and hydraulic microhabitats of the Niobrara River, Nebraska — Methods and initial results

The Niobrara River of Nebraska is a geologically, ecologically, and economically significant resource. The State of Nebraska has recognized the need to better manage the surface- and ground-water resources of the Niobrara River so they are sustainable in the long term. In cooperation with the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, the U.S. Geological Survey is investigating the hydrogeomorphic settings and hydraulic geometry of the Niobrara River to assist in characterizing the types of broad-scale physical habitat attributes that may be of importance to the ecological resources of the river system. This report includes an inventory of surface-water and ground-water hydrology data, surface water-quality data, a longitudinal geomorphic segmentation and characterization of the main channel and its valley, and hydraulic geometry relations for the 330-mile section of the Niobrara River from Dunlap Diversion Dam in western Nebraska to the Missouri River confluence. Hydraulic microhabitats also were analyzed using available data from discharge measurements to demonstrate the potential application of these data and analysis methods. The main channel of the Niobrara was partitioned into three distinct fluvial geomorphic provinces: an upper province characterized by open valleys and a sinuous, equiwidth channel; a central province characterized by mixed valley and channel settings, including several entrenched canyon reaches; and a lower province where the valley is wide, yet restricted, but the river also is wide and persistently braided. Within the three fluvial geomorphic provinces, 36 geomorphic segments were identified using a customized, process-orientated classification scheme, which described the basic physical characteristics of the Niobrara River and its valley. Analysis of the longitudinal slope characteristics indicated that the Niobrara River longitudinal profile may be largely bedrock-controlled, with slope inflections co-located at changes in bedrock type at river level. Hydraulic geometry relations indicated that local (at-a-station) channel adjustments of the Niobrara River to changing discharge are accommodated mainly by changes in velocity, and streamwise adjustments are accommodated through changes in channel width. Downstream hydraulic geometry relations are in general agreement with values previously published for rivers of the Great Plains, but coefficients are likely skewed low because the locations of the streamflow-gaging stations used in this analysis are located at natural or engineered constrictions and may not be accurately representing downstream adjustment processes of the Niobrara River. A demonstration analysis of hydraulic microhabitat attributes at a single station indicated that changes in velocity-related habitat types is the primary microhabitat adjustment over a range of discharges, but the magnitude of that adjustment for any particular discharge is temporally variable.

Nebraska↗
USGS2018

Trophic implications of a phenological paradigm shift: Bald eagles and salmon in a changing climate

Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound. Using multiple long‐term datasets, we evaluated local bald eagle abundance in relation to chum and coho salmon availability; salmon phenology; and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit. We analysed changes over time as a reflection of climate change impacts, as well as differences between managed and unmanaged portions of the river. We found that peaks in chum salmon and bald eagle presence have advanced at remarkably similar rates ( c . 0.45 days/year), suggesting synchronous phenological responses within this trophic relationship. Yet the temporal relationship between chum salmon spawning and flood events, which remove salmon carcasses from the system, has not remained constant. This has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby the peak of chum spawning now occurs before the first flood event of the season rather than after. The interval between peak chum and first flood event was a significant predictor of bald eagle presence: as this interval grew over time (by nearly one day per year), bald eagle counts declined, with a steady decrease in bald eagle observations since 2002. River section was also an important factor, with fewer flood events, and more eagle observations occurring in the river section experiencing direct hydroelectric flow management. Synthesis and applications . The effects of climate change and hydroelectric management contribute to a complex human footprint in the North Cascades National Park, an otherwise largely natural ecosystem. By accounting for the differential phenological impacts of climate change on bald eagles, salmon, and flood events, Park managers and the operators of the hydroelectric system can more effectively ensure the resilience of the eagle–salmon relationship along the Skagit River.

Washington↗
USGS2022

Incorporating habitat suitability, landscape distance, and resistant kernels to estimate conservation units for an imperiled terrestrial snake

Context Wildlife distributions are often subdivided into discrete conservation units to aid in implementing management and conservation objectives. Habitat suitability models, resistance surfaces, and resistant kernels provide tools for delineating spatially explicit conservation units but guidelines for parameterizing resistant kernels are generally lacking. Objectives We used the federally threatened eastern indigo snake ( Drymarchon couperi ) as a case study for calibrating resistant kernels using observed movement data and resistance surfaces to help delineate habitat-based conservation units. Methods We simulated eastern indigo snake movements under different resistance surface and resistant kernel parameterizations and selected the scenario that produced simulated movement distances that best approximated the maximum observed annual movement distance. We used our calibrated resistant kernel to model range-wide connectivity and compared delineated conservation units to Euclidean distance-based population units from the recent eastern indigo snake species status assessment (SSA). Results We identified a total of 255 eastern indigo snake conservation units, with numerous large (2500–5000 ha of suitable habitat) conservation units across the eastern indigo snake distribution. There was substantial variation in the degree of overlap with the SSA population units likely reflecting the spatial heterogeneity in habitat suitability and landscape resistance. Conclusion Our calibration approach is widely applicable to other systems for parameterizing biologically meaningful resistant kernels. Our conservation units can be used to prioritize future eastern indigo snake conservation efforts, identify areas where more survey work is needed, or identify small, isolated populations with high extinction risks.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗
USGS2004

Exploring behavior of an unusual megaherbivore: A spatially explicit foraging model of the hippopotamus

Herbivore foraging theories have been developed for and tested on herbivores across a range of sizes. Due to logistical constraints, however, little research has focused on foraging behavior of megaherbivores. Here we present a research approach that explores megaherbivore foraging behavior, and assesses the applicability of foraging theories developed on smaller herbivores to megafauna. With simulation models as reference points for the analysis of empirical data, we investigate foraging strategies of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). Using a spatially explicit individual based foraging model, we apply traditional herbivore foraging strategies to a model hippopotamus, compare model output, and then relate these results to field data from wild hippopotami. Hippopotami appear to employ foraging strategies that respond to vegetation characteristics, such as vegetation quality, as well as spatial reference information, namely distance to a water source. Model predictions, field observations, and comparisons of the two support that hippopotami generally conform to the central place foraging construct. These analyses point to the applicability of general herbivore foraging concepts to megaherbivores, but also point to important differences between hippopotami and other herbivores. Our synergistic approach of models as reference points for empirical data highlights a useful method of behavioral analysis for hard-to-study megafauna. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Low stand density moderates growth declines during hot droughts in semi-arid forests

Increasing heat and aridity in coming decades is expected to negatively impact tree growth and threaten forest sustainability in dry areas. Maintaining low stand density has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of increasingly severe droughts by minimizing competitive intensity. However, the direct impact of stand density on the growing environment (i.e. soil moisture), and the specific drought metrics that best quantify that environment, are not well explored for any forest ecosystem. We examined the relationship of varying stand density (i.e. basal area) on soil moisture and stand‐level growth in a long‐term (multi‐decadal), ponderosa pine Pinus ponderosa , forest management experiment. We accounted for the influence of stand‐level density on moisture availability by measuring and modelling soil moisture using an ecosystem water balance model. To quantify the growing environment, we developed metrics of ecological drought that integrate the influence of moisture availability in the soil with moisture demand by the atmosphere. We paired these results with stand‐level dendrochronological data, avoiding the potential bias introduced from individual tree‐based assessments, and used critical climate period analysis to identify the timing and duration of these drought metrics that most relate to forest growth. We found that stand‐level growth is highly responsive to the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture. Growth in all stands was negatively related to temperature and positively related to moisture availability, although the sensitivity of growth to those conditions varied among stand density treatments. Growth enhancement during cool years is greatest in low density stands. In addition, low density stands displayed substantially higher long‐term average growth than higher density stands and maintained higher growth even when temperatures were high. Growth in low density stands also increased more than higher density stands in response to greater long‐term moisture availability. Synthesis and applications . We quantified the influence of stand‐level density on the environmental conditions that determine tree growth and related forest growth to patterns of moisture supply and demand. Our drought metrics, and analytical approach for quantifying drought impacts on forest growth, are a novel approach for assessing forest vulnerability to drought under climate change. These results provide new perspective on the potential for density management to mitigate drought stress and maintain forest stand growth during and after drought events in water‐limited forests.

Arizona↗
USGS2018

A framework for identifying and characterising coral reef “oases” against a backdrop of degradation

Human activities have led to widespread ecological decline; however, the severity of degradation is spatially heterogeneous due to some locations resisting, escaping, or rebounding from disturbances. We developed a framework for identifying oases within coral reef regions using long‐term monitoring data. We calculated standardised estimates of coral cover ( z ‐scores) to distinguish sites that deviated positively from regional means. We also used the coefficient of variation (CV) of coral cover to quantify how oases varied temporally, and to distinguish among types of oases. We estimated “coral calcification capacity” (CCC), a measure of the coral community's ability to produce calcium carbonate structures and tested for an association between this metric and z ‐scores of coral cover. We illustrated our z ‐score approach within a modelling framework by extracting z ‐scores and CVs from simulated data based on four generalized trajectories of coral cover. We then applied the approach to time‐series data from long‐term reef monitoring programmes in four focal regions in the Pacific (the main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea, French Polynesia) and western Atlantic (the Florida Keys and St. John, US Virgin Islands). Among the 123 sites analysed, 38 had positive z ‐scores for median coral cover and were categorised as oases. Synthesis and applications . Our framework provides ecosystem managers with a valuable tool for conservation by identifying “oases” within degraded areas. By evaluating trajectories of change in state (e.g., coral cover) among oases, our approach may help in identifying the mechanisms responsible for spatial variability in ecosystem condition. Increased mechanistic understanding can guide whether management of a particular location should emphasise protection, mitigation or restoration. Analysis of the empirical data suggest that the majority of our coral reef oases originated by either escaping or resisting disturbances, although some sites showed a high capacity for recovery, while others were candidates for restoration. Finally, our measure of reef condition (i.e., median z ‐scores of coral cover) correlated positively with coral calcification capacity suggesting that our approach identified oases that are also exceptional for one critical component of ecological function.

Florida, Hawaii↗
USGS2003

Managing a subsidized predator population: Reducing common raven predation on desert tortoises

Human communities often are an inadvertent source of food, water, and other resources to native species of wildlife. Because these resources are more stable and predictable than those in a natural environment, animals that subsist on them are able to increase in numbers and expand their range, much to the detriment of their competitors and species they prey upon. In the Mojave Desert, common ravens (Corvus corax) have benefited from human-provided resources to increase in population size precipitously in recent years. This trend has caused concern because ravens prey on juvenile desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii), a federally threatened species. In this paper, I discuss management strategies to reduce raven predation on desert tortoises. The recommendations fall into three categories: (1) managing raven populations by reducing access to anthropogenic resources; (2) removing offending ravens or other birds in specially targeted tortoise management zones; and (3) continuing research on raven ecology, raven behavior, and methods of reducing raven predation on tortoises. I also recommend approaching the problem within an adaptive management framework: management efforts should first be employed as scientific experiments - with replicates and controls - to yield an unbiased assessment of their effectiveness. Furthermore, these strategies should be implemented in concert with actions that reduce other causes of desert tortoise mortality to aid the long-term recovery of their populations. Overall, the approaches outlined in this paper are widely applicable to the management of subsidized predators, particularly where they present a threat to a declining species of prey.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

Tennessee↗
USGS2015

Process, policy, and implementation of pool-wide drawdowns on the Upper Mississippi River: a promising approach for ecological restoration of large impounded rivers

The Upper Mississippi River (UMR) has been developed and subsequently managed for commercial navigation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). The navigation pools created by a series of lock and dams initially provided a complex of aquatic habitats that supported a variety of fish and wildlife. However, biological productivity declined as the pools aged. The River Resources Forum, an advisory body to the St. Paul District of the USACE, established a multiagency Water Level Management Task Force (WLMTF) to evaluate the potential of water level management to improve ecological function and restore the distribution and abundance of fish and wildlife habitat. The WLMTF identified several water level management options and concluded that summer growing season drawdowns at the pool scale offered the greatest potential to provide habitat benefits over a large area. Here we summarize the process followed to plan and implement pool-wide drawdowns on the UMR, including involvement of stakeholders in decision making, addressing requirements to modify reservoir operating plans, development and evaluation of drawdown alternatives, pool selection, establishment of a monitoring plan, interagency coordination, and a public information campaign. Three pool-wide drawdowns were implemented within the St. Paul District and deemed successful in providing ecological benefits without adversely affecting commercial navigation and recreational use of the pools. Insights are provided based on more than 17 years of experience in planning and implementing drawdowns on the UMR.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2026

Watershed Continuum Monitoring Approach: Combining multiple water quality patterns along stream and river flowpaths to track sources, pathways, and processing of pollutants

There is a growing need to improve and expand water quality monitoring approaches to more accurately track the sources, fate, and transport of multiple chemicals and pollutants holistically and quantify the effects of best management practices (BMPs) at the watershed scale. An overarching question raised by scientists, environmental managers, and the general public is: how far can water quality impacts from disturbances or benefits from watershed management and restoration propagate along stream and river flowpaths? Many studies using the classic watershed approach focus on analyzing changes in water quality over time at one or a few sampling stations, whereas theories such as the River Continuum Concept focus on predicting shifts in energy sources and biological communities along rivers but have not been directly applied to water quality. We propose to merge these concepts to create a Watershed Continuum Monitoring Approach (WCMA) that combines both spatial and temporal monitoring in order to better detect and quantify trends and transitions in multiple water quality indicators along flowpaths. Specifically, an array of multiple water quality indicators are analyzed at multiple downstream points along a watershed flowpath over time. These multiple water quality indicators are analyzed together for making comparisons to infer hydrological, biological, and geochemical processes controlling sources, transport, and attenuation of pollutants ( e.g. , analagous to stream tracer studies at the watershed scale). The WCMA leverages the natural expansion of watershed areas along a flowpath, which reflect transitions in land use, land cover, and environmental management across spatial and temporal dimensions for making direct comparisons across different stream reaches and spatial trend analysis. WCMA facilitates monitoring of multiple water quality indicators together, and identifcation of hot spots in sources and attenuation of pollutants or mixtures of pollutants. We illustrate practical applications of the WCMA to analyze water quality trends, transitions, and tradeoffs ( i.e. , a tradeoff occurs when one pollutant is reduced but another is directly or indirectly increased downstream). We explore case studies that quantify: (1) downstream reductions in concentrations of multiple pollutants along a stream flowing to a major drinking water source due to engineered and nature-based solutions, (2) downstream reductions in multiple pollutants and water quality tradeoffs along streams experiencing stormwater BMPs and stream restoration, (3) comparisons in downstream reductions of multiple pollutants and nutrient uptake along streams draining into major drinking water sources based on types of stream restoration, (4) comparisons of downstream pollutant reductions along streams experiencing riparian forest conservation vs. stream restoration, and (5) mapping and visualizing hot spots of increasing water quality problems such as hypoxia, contaminant mobilization, and freshwater salinization that extend downstream to tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay. We explore future applications of WCMA for tracking decreasing trends in salinity, E. coli , and other pollutants of emerging concern. WCMA can holistically inform progress towards achieving multiple water quality goals and also be used as a screening tool for selecting monitoring sites and targeting management in strategic locations. Overall, WCMA enables the simultaneous quantification and comparison of sources and transport and attenuation rates for different chemicals and pollutants across a broader range of watershed sizes and flowpath lengths, which is critical for understanding ecological, hydrological, geochemical, and biogeochemical processes along human-impacted streams and rivers.

Ecological Engineering↗
USGS2020

Development and evaluation of an improved TFM formulation for use in feeder stream treatments

The binational Great Lakes Fishery Commission sponsored Sea Lamprey Control Program effectively utilizes a variety of lampricide tools to keep populations of parasitic sea lampreys in the Great Lakes at levels that do not cause undue economic or ecological damage. The most widely used toxicant used in lampricide formulations is 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM). In typical treatments, a liquid TFM formulation is applied to lamprey producing streams continuously for 10–14 hours to produce a moving block of lampricide-treated water that kills larval lamprey before they metamorphose into their parasitic lifestage. In many smaller tributaries of dendritic streams a solid bar formulation of TFM is used to supplement the mainstem treatment block. These supplemental TFM bar applications are coordinated with the arrival of the mainstem lampricide to prevent larval sea lamprey from seeking refuge in untreated waters and surviving the treatment. TFM bars are produced from formulated surfactants and designed to release TFM over an 8–10-hour period, depending on water temperature and velocity. However, some of the surfactants have been discontinued resulting in the reformulation of the TFM bars multiple times. As a result of these reformulations, TFM bar performance has declined. An experimental surfactant-free solid TFM tablet formulation was developed as a potential replacement for TFM bars. Release of TFM from the experimental tablets was evaluated using replicated laboratory dissolution trials conducted at three water temperatures and three water velocities. A continuous-flow laboratory flume was used for the dissolution trials and the decay of the tablets was modeled using logistic decay curves. Time required for the TFM tablet to decay 50 and 99% were compared among the groups using a two-way analysis of variance. Post-hoc Tukey Honest Significant Difference tests indicated that both water temperature and water velocity influenced the decay of the tablet; however, neither water temperature or water velocity appeared to dramatically influence TFM release. Results from this laboratory study indicate that the next stage of evaluating the TFM tablets using field tests is warranted.

Project Completion Report↗