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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources
USGS1991

The intensities and magnitudes of volcanic eruptions

Ever since 1935, when C.F Richter devised the earthquake magnitude scale that bears his name, seismologists have been able to view energy release from earthquakes in a systematic and quantitative manner. The benefits have been obvious in terms of assessing seismic gaps and the spatial and temporal trends of earthquake energy release. A similar quantitative treatment of volcanic activity is of course equally desirable, both for gaining a further understanding of the physical principles of volcanic eruptions and for volcanic-hazard assessment. A systematic volcanologic data base would be of great value in evaluating such features as volcanic gaps, and regional and temporal trends in energy release.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗
USGS2007

Hazards from hydrothermally sealed volcanic conduits

The 17 March 2006 eruption from Raoul Island (Kermadec arc, north of New Zealand) is interpreted as a magmatic‐hydrothermal event triggered by shaking associated with a swarm of local earthquakes. The eruption, which tragically claimed the life of New Zealand Department of Conservation Ranger Mark Kearney, occurred without significant volcanic seismicity or any of the precursory responses the volcanic hydrothermal system exhibited prior to a similarly sized eruption in 1964. Preliminary evidence suggests that the absence of precursory behavior is probably the consequence of hydrothermal sealing of the volcanic conduit since the 1964 eruption, and points to potential hazards associated with quiescent oceanic island volcanoes.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2017

Systematic observations of the slip pulse properties of large earthquake ruptures

In earthquake dynamics there are two end member models of rupture: propagating cracks and self-healing pulses. These arise due to different properties of faults and have implications for seismic hazard; rupture mode controls near-field strong ground motions. Past studies favor the pulse-like mode of rupture; however, due to a variety of limitations, it has proven difficult to systematically establish their kinematic properties. Here we synthesize observations from a database of >150 rupture models of earthquakes spanning M 7– M 9 processed in a uniform manner and show the magnitude scaling properties of these slip pulses indicates self-similarity. Further, we find that large and very large events are statistically distinguishable relatively early (at ~15 s) in the rupture process. This suggests that with dense regional geophysical networks strong ground motions from a large rupture can be identified before their onset across the source region.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2026

Earthquake ground-motion model adjustments for the San Francisco Bay area

We develop adjustments to ergodic ground‐motion models (GMMs) to improve their performance in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA). GMMs are widely used in hazard assessments to estimate characteristics of ground shaking based on known properties of the source, path, and site. Such models are often developed using datasets containing records from various regions, resulting in models that represent median ground‐motion behavior, which may not adequately represent ground motions within subregions. This is true for the SFBA, where ground motions attenuate more rapidly with distance than in many other parts of California that dominate GMM databases. To support improved seismic hazard estimates in the SFBA, we calculate regional constants and anelastic attenuation coefficient adjustments relative to two commonly used ergodic GMMs: BSSA14 ( Boore et al. , 2014 ) and ASK14 ( Abrahamson et al. , 2014 ). These adjustments are obtained for a suite of ground‐motion intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5%‐damped pseudospectral acceleration at oscillator periods ranging from 0.075 to 10 s) using mixed‐effects regression. Use of the regionally adjusted models reduces the overall bias by up to 0.5 natural log units for BSSA14 and up to 0.6 natural log units for ASK14. We demonstrate one application of our attenuation adjustments and their implications in an earthquake early warning case study of the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The predicted extent of shaking using the adjusted models better matches observed shaking at large source‐to‐site distances, especially for lower shaking intensities, thus potentially reducing overalerting. We encourage the use of our model adjustments when ergodic models are considered for seismic hazard studies in the SFBA.

California↗
USGS2017

Application and evaluation of a rapid response earthquake-triggered landslide model to the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

The 25 April 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake produced strong ground motions across an approximately 250 km by 100 km swath in central Nepal. To assist disaster response activities, we modified an existing earthquake-triggered landslide model based on a Newmark sliding block analysis to estimate the extent and intensity of landsliding and landslide dam hazard. Landslide hazard maps were produced using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital topography, peak ground acceleration (PGA) information from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeMap program, and assumptions about the regional rock strength based on end-member values from previous studies. The instrumental record of seismicity in Nepal is poor, so PGA estimates were based on empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) constrained by teleseismic data and felt reports. We demonstrate a non-linear dependence of modeled landsliding on aggregate rock strength, where the number of landslides decreases exponentially with increasing rock strength. Model estimates are less sensitive to PGA at steep slopes (> 60°) compared to moderate slopes (30–60°). We compare forward model results to an inventory of landslides triggered by the Gorkha earthquake. We show that moderate rock strength inputs over estimate landsliding in regions beyond the main slip patch, which may in part be related to poorly constrained PGA estimates for this event at far distances from the source area. Directly above the main slip patch, however, the moderate strength model accurately estimates the total number of landslides within the resolution of the model (landslides ≥ 0.0162 km 2 ; observed n = 2214, modeled n = 2987), but the pattern of landsliding differs from observations. This discrepancy is likely due to the unaccounted for effects of variable material strength and local topographic amplification of strong ground motion, as well as other simplifying assumptions about source characteristics and their relationship to landsliding.

Tectonophysics↗
USGS2022

Cross-platform analysis of public responses to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence on Twitter and Reddit

Online social networks (OSNs) have become a powerful tool to study collective human responses to extreme events such as earthquakes. Most previous research concentrated on a single platform and utilized users’ behaviors on a single platform to study people’s general responses. In this study, we explore the characteristics of people’s behaviors on different OSNs and conduct a cross-platform analysis of public responses to earthquakes. Our findings support the Uses and Gratification theory that users on Reddit and Twitter are engaging with platforms that they may feel best reflect their sense of self. Using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes as our study cases, we collected 510,579 tweets and 45,770 Reddit posts (including 1437 submissions and 44,333 comments) to answer the following research questions: (1) What were the similarities and differences between public responses on Twitter and Reddit? (2) Considering the different mechanisms of Twitter and Reddit, what unique information of public responses can we learn from Reddit as compared with Twitter? By answering these research questions, we aim to bridge the gap of cross-platform public responses research towards natural hazards. Our study evinces that the users on the two different platforms have both different topics of interest and different sentiments towards the same earthquake, which indicates the necessity of investigating cross-platform OSNs to reveal a more comprehensive picture of people’s general public responses towards certain disasters. Our analysis also finds that r/conspiracy subreddit is one of the major venues where people discuss the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes on Reddit and different misinformation/conspiracies spread on Twitter and Reddit platforms (e.g., “Big one is coming” on Twitter and “Nuclear test” on Reddit).

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2022

Creep rate models for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model: Physically constrained inversions for the distribution of creep on California faults

Widespread surface creep is observed across a number of active faults included in the United States (US) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). In northern California, creep occurs on the central section of the San Andreas fault, along the Hayward and Calaveras faults through the San Francisco Bay Area, and to the north coast region along the Maacama and Bartlett Springs faults. In southern California, creep is observed across the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault, through the Brawley Seismic Zone, and along the Imperial and Superstition Hills faults. Seismic hazard assessments for California have accounted for creep using various data and methods, including the most recent Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) in 2013. The purpose of this study is to expand and update the UCERF3 creep rate data set for the 2023 release of the US NSHM and to invert geodetic data and the surface creep rate data for the spatial distribution of interseismic fault creep on California faults using an elastic model with physical creep constraints. The updated surface creep rate compilation consists of a variety of data types including alignment arrays, offset cultural markers, creepmeters, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Global Positioning System data. We compile a total of 497 surface creep rate measurements, 400 of which are new and 97 of which appear in the UCERF3 compilation. We compute creep rate distributions for each of the five 2023 NSHM geodetic‐based and geologic‐based deformation models. Computed creep rates are used to reduce the total fault moment rate available for earthquake sequences in the NSHM model. We find that, despite relatively large variability in model long‐term slip rates across all five deformation models, the variability in depth‐averaged creep rate across all models is relatively small, typically 5–10 mm/yr along the creeping San Andreas fault section and only 2–4 mm/yr along the Maacama and Rodgers Creek‐Hayward faults.

California↗
USGS2020

Using a dense seismic array to determine structure and site effects of the Two Towers earthflow in northern California

We deployed a network of 68 three-component geophones on the slow moving Two Towers earthflow in northern California. We compute horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) from the ambient seismic field. The HVSRs have two prominent peaks, one near 1.23 Hz and another between 4 and 8 Hz at most stations. The 1.23 Hz resonance is a property of the background noise field and may be due to a velocity contrast at a few hundred meters depth. We interpret the higher frequency peaks as being related to slide deposits and invert the spectral ratios for shallow velocity structure using in situ thickness measurements as a priori constraints on the inversion. The thickness of the shallowest, low-velocity layer is systematically larger than landslide thicknesses inferred from inclinometer data acquired since 2013. Given constraints from field observations and boreholes, the inversion may reflect the thickness of deposits of an older slide that is larger in spatial extent and depth than the currently active slide. Because the HVSR peaks measured at Two Towers are caused by shallow slide deposits and represent frequencies that will experience amplification during earthquakes, the depth of the actively sliding mass may be less relevant for assessing potential slide volume and associated hazard than the thicknesses determined by our inversions. More generally, our results underscore the utility of combining both geotechnical measurements and subsurface imaging for landslide characterization and hazard assessment.

California↗
USGS2011

Reassessment of stable continental regions of Southeast Asia

Probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments of the central and eastern United States (CEUS) require estimates of the size of the largest possible earthquake (Mmax). In most of the CEUS, sparse historical seismicity does not provide a record of moderate and large earthquakes that is sufficient to constrain Mmax. One remedy for the insufficient catalog is to combine the catalog of moderate to large CEUS earthquakes with catalogs from other regions worldwide that are tectonically analogous to the CEUS (stable continental regions, or SCRs). After the North America SCR, the largest contribution of earthquakes to this global SCR catalog comes from a Southeast Asian SCR that extends from Indochina to southeasternmost Russia. Integration and interpretation of recently published geological and geophysical results show that most of these Southeast Asian earthquakes occurred in areas exposing abundant alkaline igneous rocks and extensional faults, both of Neogene age (last 23 million years). The implied Neogene extension precludes classification of the areas as SCR crust. The extension also reduces the number of moderate and large Southeast Asian historical earthquakes that are available to constrain CEUS Mmax by 86 percent, from 43 to six.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2022

Complex magmatic-tectonic interactions during the 2020 Makushin Volcano, Alaska, earthquake swarm

On June 15, 2020, at 21:16 UTC, a locally-felt earthquake of magnitude 4.2 struck Unalaska Island, Alaska, ∼15 km west of the town of Unalaska and the large fishing port of Dutch Harbor. The event was followed by a M4.1 earthquake at 00:34 UTC and several M3+ aftershocks, initiating a prolific sequence with hundreds of earthquakes recorded into late December. The earthquakes all locate about 12 km southeast of the summit of Makushin Volcano at 7 to 10 km depth. To date, no eruptive activity or other surface changes have been observed at the volcano in webcam images, GPS or InSAR. Seismic bursts close to volcanoes are often associated with the onset of unrest that can lead to eruption. However, determining whether seismicity reflects magmatic rather than tectonic stresses is often challenging, although critical for hazard assessments and risk management strategies. To investigate the triggering mechanisms of the recent Makushin seismicity, we integrate information from space-time patterns of the earthquake hypocenters with their fault-plane solutions. We relocate the swarm events using double-difference relocation techniques and a 3D velocity model and find that the earthquakes, although they seem to follow two predominant orientations (NW-SE and SW-NE), do not show clear clustering into preferred alignments. Similarly, we do not observe pronounced migration in time and space. Fault-plane solutions (FPS) for all but one M2.5+ earthquakes have P-axis orientations consistent with subhorizontal NW-SE oriented regional maximum compression, whereas many of the lower-magnitude earthquakes have P-axes perpendicular to regional maximum compression. This provides evidence for the presence of a local stress field likely induced by magma intrusion. Results from Coulomb stress modeling are also consistent with dike inflation modulated by stresses induced by the M4+ earthquakes. The seismic swarm is thus likely linked to a superposition of driving stresses from both magmatic and tectonic processes on pre-existing faults. The case of the 2020 Makushin swarm, with its unusual characteristics, challenges traditional swarm classification schemes and suggests that a reconsideration of the definition of seismic swarms as having the maximum magnitude event in the middle of the swarm is warranted.

Alaska↗
USGS2022

Preliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States

Although the gas pipeline infrastructure in the United States is vulnerable to the seismic hazards of (i) strong ground shaking, and (ii) ground failures induced by surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides, limited national guidance exists for operators to consistently evaluate the earthquake response of their pipelines. To provide additional information for stakeholders and establish more consistency at a national scale, we attempt to quantify seismic risk for gas transmission pipelines in the conterminous United States using a metric such as average annual loss, which helps readily distinguish geographic areas of high and low relative risk. Specifically, we integrate the 2018 National Pipeline Mapping System, the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model, and several candidate models from the literature for estimating pipeline damage. Through this effort, we highlight major research needs for ultimately reducing the many uncertainties associated with a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2012

Guideline for assessing the performance of electric power systems in natural hazard and human threat events

Electric power utilities are familiar with and skilled in preparing for and responding to almost-routine natural hazard events such as strong wind and ice storms and seasonal floods, as well as intentional human acts such as vandalism. Recent extreme weather (hurricanes Katrina and Rita), extremely destructive international earthquakes (in Sumatra and Pakistan), and nation-wide concerns regarding future terrorist attacks have increased the pressure on utilities to take appropriate steps to avoid being overwhelmed by such infrequent and exceedingly severe events. Determining what constitutes the appropriate steps to take requires various levels of understanding of the specific hazards and the risks faced by the utility. The American Lifelines Alliance (www. americanlifelinesalliance.org) has prepared a Guideline that provides clear, concise, and nationally-applicable guidance on determining the scope and level of effort necessary to assess power system performance in the wide range of natural hazard or human threat events. Included in this Guideline are specific procedures to follow and information to consider in performing standardized assessments. With the results of such assessments, utility owners can effectively establish and carry out risk management programs that will lead to achieving appropriate levels of performance in future events. The Guideline incorporates an inquiry-driven process with a two-phase performance assessment that can be applied to power systems of any size. The screening phase enables systems or components that are clearly not at risk to be screened out early. The subsequent analysis phase uses results from the screening phase to prioritize and allocate resources for more detailed assessments of hazard, vulnerability, and system performance. This process helps assure that the scope of the assessment meets the specific performance objectives of the inquiry. A case history is presented to illustrate the type of experience with an inquiry-driven process that was considered in developing the Guideline to meet the diverse needs of utility personnel in engineering, operations, and management. Copyright ASCE 2007.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Post-1906 stress recovery of the San Andreas fault system calculated from three-dimensional finite element analysis

The M = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake cast a stress shadow across the San Andreas fault system, inhibiting other large earthquakes for at least 75 years. The duration of the stress shadow is a key question in San Francisco Bay area seismic hazard assessment. This study presents a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element simulation of post-1906 stress recovery. The model reproduces observed geologic slip rates on major strike-slip faults and produces surface velocity vectors comparable to geodetic measurements. Fault stressing rates calculated with the finite element model are evaluated against numbers calculated using deep dislocation slip. In the finite element model, tectonic stressing is distributed throughout the crust and upper mantle, whereas tectonic stressing calculated with dislocations is focused mostly on faults. In addition, the finite element model incorporates postseismic effects such as deep afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in the upper mantle. More distributed stressing and postseismic effects in the finite element model lead to lower calculated tectonic stressing rates and longer stress shadow durations (17–74 years compared with 7–54 years). All models considered indicate that the 1906 stress shadow was completely erased by tectonic loading no later than 1980. However, the stress shadow still affects present-day earthquake probability. Use of stressing rate parameters calculated with the finite element model yields a 7–12% reduction in 30-year probability caused by the 1906 stress shadow as compared with calculations not incorporating interactions. The aggregate interaction-based probability on selected segments (not including the ruptured San Andreas fault) is 53–70% versus the noninteraction range of 65–77%.

California↗
USGS2026

Site response models based on geometric parameters for southern California sedimentary basins

Site response in sedimentary basins is influenced by complex three-dimensional (3D) features, including trapping of seismic waves, focusing of seismic energy and basin resonance. Current ground motion models (GMMs) incorporate basin effects using one-dimensional parameters like V S30 and shear wave velocity isosurface depths, which are limited in capturing lateral and 3D effects. To address these limitations, we develop seismic site response models based on novel parameters that represent multi-dimensional properties of the Los Angeles Basin (LAB) geometry and shear wave velocity. We define a basin shape for the LAB using depth to subsurface geologic interfaces associated with the oldest sedimentary deposits (depth to a particular shear wave velocity horizon, i.e., 1.5 km/s - z 1.5 ) and the depth to the crystalline basement ( z cb ) which are determined using geologic cross sections and community seismic velocity model profiles. We explore a suite of geometric descriptors computed for the LAB and southern California, from which three parameters with the greatest predictive potential are selected and evaluated using empirical ground motion residual analyses in combination with the Boore et al. GMM. The results demonstrate that the zonal heterogeneity index ( ), standard deviation of the absolute difference between z 1.5 and z cb ( ) and standard deviation of z cb ( ) each provide a reduction in site-to-site variability ( ϕ S2S ) of empirical GMMs. The reduction in ϕ S2S is period-dependent, with average decreases of 3%, 26% and 6% for , , and , respectively. Although these reductions are modest from an engineering application perspective, they are statistically significant, underscoring the inherent difficulty in fully characterising complex basin effects. Collectively, these findings indicate that the inclusion of basin-specific geometric parameters yields measurable, albeit incremental, improvements in site response prediction and establishes a framework for the progressive refinement of seismic hazard characterisation within sedimentary basins.

California↗
USGS2024

Improved computational methods for probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis

Current procedures for analysis of and design against liquefaction hazards focus primarily on the use of probabilistic ground motions at a single ground-shaking hazard level, with the cyclic loading represented by a peak ground acceleration ( PGA ) corresponding to a target return period and a single representative moment magnitude M w . These parameters are typically used in conjunction with deterministic simplified procedures for estimating liquefaction triggering and consequences that largely neglect the considerable uncertainties inherent to liquefaction problems. Motivated by these limitations and the resulting inconsistencies in liquefaction design levels, early methods for probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis (PLHA) were proposed that incorporate the full ground motion hazard space, integrated with probabilistic liquefaction triggering models. Such methods provide liquefaction factor of safety ( FS L ) hazard curves for standard penetration test (SPT) data. Recognizing the increased use of higher-resolution cone penetrometer test (CPT) data in engineering analysis and design and the potential computational challenges it presents, an expanded suite of probabilistic triggering models, and wider availability of more detailed seismic hazard data, an improved PLHA computational methodology is presented in this study. The methods described utilize the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model directly through web services to obtain PGA hazard and disaggregation calculations for any site and average shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the site ( V s 30 ) in the conterminous United States, to reconstruct the PGA hazard space for use in PLHA calculations, and to employ array calculations for efficient liquefaction hazard curve estimates for the thousands of CPT measurements in a given profile. The framework presented here is modular in nature, and discussion on the use of alternative models and extension to probabilistic liquefaction consequence evaluation is presented. The importance of appropriate representation of probabilistic liquefaction model uncertainties is also highlighted, along with the impacts of different levels of uncertainty on the PLHA calculation. Finally, a potential roadmap for incorporation of the PLHA framework in seismic provisions is presented, with an illustration of how it can address current limitations and impacts in liquefaction hazard analysis and design.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗
USGS2014

Neotectonics and geomorphic evolution of the northwestern arm of the Yellowstone Tectonic Parabola: Controls on intra-cratonic extensional regimes, southwest Montana

The catastrophic Hebgen Lake earthquake of 18 August 1959 (MW 7.3) led many geoscientists to develop new methods to better understand active tectonics in extensional tectonic regimes that address seismic hazards. The Madison Range fault system and adjacent Hebgen Lake–Red Canyon fault system provide an intermountain active tectonic analog for regional analyses of extensional crustal deformation. The Madison Range fault system comprises fault zones (~100 km in length) that have multiple salients and embayments marked by preexisting structures exposed in the footwall. Quaternary tectonic activity rates differ along the length of the fault system, with less displacement to the north. Within the Hebgen Lake basin, the 1959 earthquake is the latest slip event in the Hebgen Lake–Red Canyon fault system and southern Madison Range fault system. Geomorphic and paleoseismic investigations indicate previous faulting events on both fault systems. Surficial geologic mapping and historic seismicity support a coseismic structural linkage between the Madison Range and Hebgen Lake–Red Canyon fault systems. On this trip, we will look at Quaternary surface ruptures that characterize prehistoric earthquake magnitudes. The one-day field trip begins and ends in Bozeman, and includes an overview of the active tectonics within the Madison Valley and Hebgen Lake basin, southwestern Montana. We will also review geologic evidence, which includes new geologic maps and geomorphic analyses that demonstrate preexisting structural controls on surface rupture patterns along the Madison Range and Hebgen Lake–Red Canyon fault systems.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Strong ground motion inferred from liquefaction caused by the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes

Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) in the epicentral region of the 1811–1812 New Madrid, Missouri, earthquakes are inferred from liquefaction to have been no greater than ∼0.35 g . PGA is inferred in an 11,380  km 2 area in the Lower Mississippi Valley in Arkansas and Missouri where liquefaction was extensive in 1811–1812. PGA was inferred by applying liquefaction probability curves, which were originally developed for liquefaction hazard mapping, to detailed maps of liquefaction by Obermeier (1989) . The low PGA is inferred because both a shallow (1.5 m deep) water table and a large moment magnitude ( M 7.7) earthquake were assumed in the analysis. If a deep (5.0 m) water table and a small magnitude ( M 6.8) earthquake are assumed, the maximum inferred PGA is 1.10 g . Both inferred PGA values are based on an assumed and poorly constrained correction for sand aging. If an aging correction is not assumed, then the inferred PGA is no greater than 0.22 g . A low PGA value may be explained by nonlinear site response. Soils in the study area have an average V S 30 of 220±15  m/s. A low inferred PGA is consistent with PGA values estimated from ground‐motion prediction equations that have been proposed for the New Madrid seismic zone when these estimates are corrected for nonlinear soil site effects. This application of liquefaction probability curves demonstrates their potential usefulness in paleoseismology.

Missouri↗