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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Comparison of techniques for estimating annual lake evaporation using climatological data

Mean annual evaporation estimates were determined for 30 lakes by use of a numerical model (Morton, 1979) and by use of an evaporation map prepared by the U.S. Weather Service (Kohler et al., 1959). These estimates were compared to the reported value of evaporation determined from measurements on each lake. Various lengths of observation and methods of measurement were used among the 30 lakes. The evaporation map provides annual evaporation estimates which are more consistent with observations than those determined by use of the numerical model. The map cannot provide monthly estimates, however, and is only available for the contiguous United States. The numerical model can provide monthly estimates for shallow lakes and is based on monthly observations of temperature, humidity, and sunshine duration.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

A model for managing sources of groundwater pollution

The waste disposal capacity of a groundwater system can be maximized while maintaining water quality at specified locations by using a groundwater pollutant source management model that is based upon linear programing and numerical simulation. The decision variables of the management model are solute waste disposal rates at various facilities distributed over space. A concentration response matrix is used in the management model to describe transient solute transport and is developed using the U.S. Geological Survey solute transport simulation model. The management model was applied to a complex hypothetical groundwater system. Large-scale management models were formulated as dual linear programing problems to reduce numerical difficulties and computation time. Linear programing problems were solved using a numerically stable, available code. Optimal solutions to problems with successively longer management time horizons indicated that disposal schedules at some sites are relatively independent of the number of disposal periods. Optimal waste disposal schedules exhibited pulsing rather than constant disposal rates. Sensitivity analysis using parametric linear programing showed that a sharp reduction in total waste disposal potential occurs if disposal rates at any site are increased beyond their optimal values.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

An analysis of input errors in precipitation-runoff models using regression with errors in the independent variables

Errors in runoff prediction caused by input data errors are analyzed by treating precipitation-runoff models as regression (conditional expectation) models. Independent variables of the regression consist of precipitation and other input measurements; the dependent variable is runoff. In models using erroneous input data, prediction errors are inflated and estimates of expected storm runoff for given observed input variables are biased. This bias in expected runoff estimation results in biased parameter estimates if these parameter estimates are obtained by a least squares fit of predicted to observed runoff values. The problems of error inflation and bias are examined in detail for a simple linear regression of runoff on rainfall and for a nonlinear U.S. Geological Survey precipitation-runoff model. Some implications for flood frequency analysis are considered. A case study using a set of data from Turtle Creek near Dallas, Texas illustrates the problems of model input errors.

Texas↗
USGS2010

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

A comparison of four streamflow record extension techniques

One approach to developing time series of streamflow, which may be used for simulation and optimization studies of water resources development activities, is to extend an existing gage record in time by exploiting the interstation correlation between the station of interest and some nearby (long-term) base station. Four methods of extension are described, and their properties are explored. The methods are regression (REG), regression plus noise (RPN), and two new methods, maintenance of variance extension types 1 and 2 (MOVE.l, MOVE.2). MOVE.l is equivalent to a method which is widely used in psychology, biometrics, and geomorphology and which has been called by various names, e.g., ‘line of organic correlation,’ ‘reduced major axis,’ ‘unique solution,’ and ‘equivalence line.’ The methods are examined for bias and standard error of estimate of moments and order statistics, and an empirical examination is made of the preservation of historic low-flow characteristics using 50-year-long monthly records from seven streams. The REG and RPN methods are shown to have serious deficiencies as record extension techniques. MOVE.2 is shown to be marginally better than MOVE.l, according to the various comparisons of bias and accuracy.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Bank stability and channel width adjustment, East Fork River, Wyoming

Frequent surveys of eight cross sections located in self-formed reaches of the East Fork River, Wyoming, during the 1974 snowmelt flood showed a close relation between channel morphology and scour and fill. Those cross sections narrower than the mean reach width filled at discharges less than bankfull and scoured at discharges greater than bankfull. Those cross sections wider than the mean reach width scoured at discharges less than bankfull and filled at discharges greater than bankfull. The accumulation and depletion of sand-sized bed material in a cross section was concentrated in the near-bank parts of the stream channel and thus significantly influenced bank stability and retreat. In those cross sections that scour at discharges greater than bankfull, the basal bank material is eroded and the banks become undercut and unstable. Conversely, in those cross sections that fill at discharges greater than bankfull, the basal bank material is covered by the accumulated sand-size material and is not eroded. Streambanks in these cross sections are moderately inclined and stable. A resurvey in the summer of 1980 of the cross sections located in straight reaches showed that those cross sections which scoured at discharges greater than bankfull had become 2–4 feet wider, whereas those cross sections which filled at discharges greater than bankfull were unchanged. Thus bank stability and to some extent the adjustment of stream channel width in the East Fork River study reach appears to be controlled by the processes of scour and fill.

Wyoming↗
USGS2010

Comparison of estimators of standard deviation for hydrologic time series

Unbiasing factors as a function of serial correlation, ρ , and sample size, n for the sample standard deviation of a lag one autoregressive model were generated by random number simulation. Monte Carlo experiments were used to compare the performance of several alternative methods for estimating the standard deviation σ of a lag one autoregressive model in terms of bias, root mean square error, probability of underestimation, and expected opportunity design loss. Three methods provided estimates of σ which were much less biased but had greater mean square errors than the usual estimate of σ: s = (1/( n - 1) ∑ ( x i − x¯ ) 2 ) ½ . The three methods may be briefly characterized as (1) a method using a maximum likelihood estimate of the unbiasing factor, (2) a method using an empirical Bayes estimate of the unbiasing factor, and (3) a robust nonparametric estimate of σ suggested by Quenouille. Because s tends to underestimate σ, its use as an estimate of a model parameter results in a tendency to underdesign. If underdesign losses are considered more serious than overdesign losses, then the choice of one of the less biased methods may be wise.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

On Lagrangian residual currents with applications in south San Francisco Bay, California

The Lagrangian residual circulation has often been introduced as the sum of the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift. Unfortunately, this definition of the Lagrangian residual circulation is conceptually incorrect because both the Eulerian residual circulation and the Stokes' drift are Eulerian variables. In this paper a classification of various residual variables are reviewed and properly defined. The Lagrangian residual circulation is then studied by means of a two-stage formulation of a computer model. The tidal circulation is first computed in a conventional Eulerian way, and then the Lagrangian residual circulation is determined by a method patterned after the method of markers and cells. To demonstrate properties of the Lagrangian residual circulation, application of this approach in South San Francisco Bay, California, is considered. With the aid of the model results, properties of the Eulerian and Lagrangian residual circulation are examined. It can be concluded that estimation of the Lagrangian residual circulation from Eulerian data may lead to unacceptable error, particularly in a tidal estuary where the tidal excursion is of the same order of magnitude as the length scale of the basin. A direction calculation of the Lagrangian residual circulation must be made and has been shown to be feasible.

California↗
USGS2010

Asymptotic distribution of the maximum deficit with correlated, partially regulated outflows

The asymptotic distribution of the maximum accumulated deficit with partially regulated, Markov-dependent net outflows having a Bernoulli distribution is derived, and the distribution for independent, continuous outflows is presented. It is demonstrated that under partial regulation the maximum deficit behaves as log n , where n is the length of the series; this is to be contrasted with the n ½ behavior exhibited by fully regulated outflows. Also, as would be expected, the presence of correlation tends to increase the magnitude and variability of the maximum deficit.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Approximate sampling distribution of the serial correlation coefficient for small samples

The probability density function for the sample serial correlation coefficient r can be approximated by f ( r ) = (β(½, ½( T + 1))) −1 (1 − r 2 ) ½( T − 1 )(1+ c 2 − 2 cr ) −½( T ), whereβ is the Beta function, T = n − 2, c = ρ − [(1 + ρ)/( n − 3)], n is the number of observations, and ρ is the population lag one serial correlation. This distribution is derived from a large Monte Carlo study at points between ρ= −0.9 and ρ = 0.9 and for n =10, 20, and 30.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 2. Applications

This paper investigates factors influencing the degree of improvement in estimates of parameters of a nonlinear regression groundwater flow model by incorporating prior information of unknown reliability. Consideration of expected behavior of the regression solutions and results of a hypothetical modeling problem lead to several general conclusions. First, if the parameters are properly scaled, linearized expressions for the mean square error (MSE) in parameter estimates of a nonlinear model will often behave very nearly as if the model were linear. Second, by using prior information, the MSE in properly scaled parameters can be reduced greatly over the MSE of ordinary least squares estimates of parameters. Third, plots of estimated MSE and the estimated standard deviation of MSE versus an auxiliary parameter (the ridge parameter) specifying the degree of influence of the prior information on regression results can help determine the potential for improvement of parameter estimates. Fourth, proposed criteria can be used to make appropriate choices for the ridge parameter and another parameter expressing degree of overall bias in the prior information. Results of a case study of Truckee Meadows, Reno-Sparks area, Washoe County, Nevada, conform closely to the results of the hypothetical problem. In the Truckee Meadows case, incorporation of prior information did not greatly change the parameter estimates from those obtained by ordinary least squares. However, the analysis showed that both sets of estimates are more reliable than suggested by the standard errors from ordinary least squares.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Simulation of solute transport in a mountain pool-and-riffle stream: A transient storage model

The physical characteristics of mountain streams differ from the uniform and conceptually well- defined open channels for which the analysis of solute transport has been oriented in the past and is now well understood. These physical conditions significantly influence solute transport behavior, as demonstrated by a transient storage model simulation of solute transport in a very small (0.0125 m 3 s −1 ) mountain pool-and-riffle stream. The application is to a carefully controlled and intensively monitored chloride injection experiment. The data from the experiment are not explained by the standard convection-dispersion mechanisms alone. A transient storage model, which couples dead zones with the one-dimensional convection-dispersion equation, simulates the general characteristics of the solute transport behavior and a set of simulation parameters were determined that yield an adequate fit to the data. However, considerable uncertainty remains in determining physically realistic values of these parameters. The values of the simulation parameters used are compared to values used by other authors for other streams. The comparison supports, at least qualitatively, the determined parameter values.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Kinetic analysis of strontium and potassium sorption onto sands and gravels in a natural channel

A kinetic, first-order mass transfer model was used to describe the sorption of strontium onto sand- and gravel-sized streambed sediments. Rate parameters, empirically determined for strontium, allowed for the prediction of potassium sorption with moderate success. The model parameters varied significantly with particle size. The sorption data were collected during an experimental injection of several elements into a small mountain pool-and-riffle stream. The sorption process onto sand- and gravel-sized sediment was relatively slow compared to changes in the dissolved concentrations.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Simulation of solute transport in a mountain pool-and-riffle stream with a kinetic mass transfer model for sorption

In natural channels there are often long periods of low flow during which solutes have repeated opportunity for contact with relatively immobile bed materials. Such conditions can exist in very small pool-and-riffle mountain streams. If a solute can sorb onto bed materials, then both hydrodynamic and chemical processes control solute transport. A simulation of these processes is presented for a carefully controlled and intensively monitored strontium injection experiment. The numerical model couples nonreactive, transient storage with a kinetic mass transport model for sorption. The results are compared to both in-stream and on-sediment strontium measurements. In mountain streams the stream hydrology is complex and is governed by a wide variety of time and distance scales. The present simulations assist in interpreting the relative roles of hydrologic and sorptive kinetic processes, and indicate the practical limits of our process and parameter knowledge. The simulations are relatively insensitive to the details of the kinetic mechanisms and to the spatial variability of the stream parameters.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Laboratory investigations of steam flow in a porous medium

Experiments were carried out in the laboratory to test a theory of transient flow of pure steam in a uniform porous medium. This theory is used in modeling pressure transient behavior in vapor dominated geothermal systems. Transient, superheated steam flow experiments were run by bringing a cylinder of porous material to a uniform initial pressure and then making a step increase in pressure at one end of the sample while monitoring the pressure transient breakthrough at the other end. It was found in experiments run at 100°, 125°, and 146°C that the time required for steam pressure transients to propagate through an unconsolidated material containing sand, silt, and clay was 10–25 times longer than predicted by conventional superheated steam flow theory. It is hypothesized that the delay in the steam pressure transient was caused by adsorption of steam in the porous sample. In order to account for steam adsorption, a sink term was included in the conservation of mass equation. In addition, energy transfer in the system has to be considered because latent heat is released when steam adsorption occurs, increasing the sample temperature by as much as 10°C. Finally, it was recognized that the steam pressure was a function of both the temperature and the amount of adsorption in the sample. This function was assumed to be an equilibrium adsorption isotherm, which was determined by experiment. By solving the modified mass and energy equations numerically, subject to the empirical adsorption isotherm relationship, excellent theoretical simulation of the experiments was achieved.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water for irrigated agriculture: Risk aversion

In examining the South Platte system in Colorado where surface water and groundwater are used conjunctively for irrigation, we find the actual installed well capacity is approximately sufficient to irrigate the entire area. This would appear to be an overinvestment in well capacity. In this paper we examine to what extent groundwater is being developed as insurance against periods of low streamflow. Using a simulation model which couples the hydrology of a conjunctive stream aquifer system to a behavioral-economic model which incorporates farmer behavior in such a system, we have investigated the economics of an area patterned after a reach of the South Platte Valley in Colorado. The results suggest that under current economic conditions the most reasonable groundwater pumping capacity is a total capacity capable of irrigating the available acreage with groundwater. Installing sufficient well capacity to irrigate all available acreage has two benefits: (1) this capacity maximizes the expected net benefits and (2) this capacity also minimizes the variation in annual income: it reduces the variance to essentially zero. As pumping capacity is installed in a conjunctive use system, the value of flow forecasts is diminished. Poor forecasts are compensated for by pumping groundwater.

Colorado↗
USGS2010

Transport of reacting solutes in porous media: Relation between mathematical nature of problem formulation and chemical nature of reactions

Examples involving six broad reaction classes show that the nature of transport-affecting chemistry may have a profound effect on the mathematical character of solute transport problem formulation. Substantive mathematical diversity among such formulations is brought about principally by reaction properties that determine whether (1) the reaction can be regarded as being controlled by local chemical equilibria or whether it must be considered as being controlled by kinetics, (2) the reaction is homogeneous or heterogeneous, (3) the reaction is a surface reaction (adsorption, ion exchange) or one of the reactions of classical chemistry (e.g., precipitation, dissolution, oxidation, reduction, complex formation). These properties, as well as the choice of means to describe them, stipulate, for instance, (1) the type of chemical entities for which a formulation's basic, mass-balance equations should be written; (2) the nature of mathematical transformations needed to change the problem's basic equations into operational ones. These and other influences determine such mathematical features of problem formulations as the nature of the operational transport-equation system (e.g., whether it involves algebraic, partial-differential, or integro-partial-differential simultaneous equations), the type of nonlinearities of such a system, and the character of the boundaries (e.g., whether they are stationary or moving). Exploration of the reasons for the dependence of transport mathematics on transport chemistry suggests that many results of this dependence stem from the basic properties of the reactions' chemical-relation (i.e., equilibrium or rate) equations.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Measuring water surface and streambed elevation changes with the acoustic velocity metering system

Acoustic velocity metering systems used to measure the water velocity along a diagonal path across a stream can also be used to measure stage and streambed changes. Underwater acoustic transmissions reflected from the water surface can accurately measure depth above transducers. Similarly, signals reflected from the streambed can indicate streambed changes in the vicinity midway between transducers.

Water Resources Research↗