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Climate change and pulse migration: Intermittent Chugach Inuit occupation of glacial fiords on the Kenai Coast, Alaska

For millennia, Inuit peoples of the Arctic and Subarctic have been challenged by the impacts of climate change on the abundance of key subsistence species. Responses to climate-induced declines in animal populations included switching to alternative food sources and/or migrating to regions of greater availability. We examine these dynamics for the Chugach Inuit (Sugpiat) people of southern coastal Alaska by synthesizing a large body of evidence from archeological sites, including radiocarbon dates and archaeofaunal assemblages, and by applying contemporary knowledge of glaciomarine ecosystems, spatial patterns of resource richness, and ocean-climate induced regime shifts in the Gulf of Alaska. We hypothesize that Chugach groups migrated from Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula during periods of low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to harvest harbor seals, which were seasonally aggregated near tidewater glaciers during pupping season, as well as piscivorous seabirds, Pacific cod, and other species that thrive under cool ocean conditions. During warming phases, the Chugach returned to Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound to fish for salmon and other species that abound during higher SSTs. Drivers of this coupled human-natural system of repeated (pulse) migration include the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the dominant pattern of sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific that has been shown to generate step-like regime shifts in the marine food web; and coastal glaciers that structure the functioning of fiord ecosystems and support high levels of biological productivity. The culturally-constructed Chugach niche in the glaciomarine habitat of the Gulf of Alaska was based on intergenerationally transmitted ecological knowledge that enabled a resilient, mobile response to climate and resource variation.

Alaska↗

A Great Lakes atmospheric mercury monitoring network: evaluation and design

As many as 51 mercury (Hg) wet-deposition-monitoring sites from 4 networks were operated in 8 USA states and Ontario, Canada in the North American Great Lakes Region from 1996 to 2010. By 2013, 20 of those sites were no longer in operation and approximately half the geographic area of the Region was represented by a single Hg-monitoring site. In response, a Great Lakes Atmospheric Mercury Monitoring (GLAMM) network is needed as a framework for regional collaboration in Hg-deposition monitoring. The purpose of the GLAMM network is to detect changes in regional atmospheric Hg deposition related to changes in Hg emissions. An optimized design for the network was determined to be a minimum of 21 sites in a representative and approximately uniform geographic distribution. A majority of the active and historic Hg-monitoring sites in the Great Lakes Region are part of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) in North America and the GLAMM network is planned to be part of the MDN. To determine an optimized network design, active and historic Hg-monitoring sites in the Great Lakes Region were evaluated with a rating system of 21 factors that included characteristics of the monitoring locations and interpretations of Hg data. Monitoring sites were rated according to the number of Hg emissions sources and annual Hg emissions in a geographic polygon centered on each site. Hg-monitoring data from the sites were analyzed for long-term averages in weekly Hg concentrations in precipitation and weekly Hg-wet deposition, and on significant temporal trends in Hg concentrations and Hg deposition. A cluster analysis method was used to group sites with similar variability in their Hg data in order to identify sites that were unique for explaining Hg data variability in the Region. The network design included locations in protected natural areas, urban areas, Great Lakes watersheds, and in proximity to areas with a high density of annual Hg emissions and areas with high average weekly Hg wet deposition. In a statistical analysis, relatively strong, positive correlations in the wet deposition of Hg and sulfate were shown for co-located NADP Hg-monitoring and acid-rain monitoring sites in the Region. This finding indicated that efficiency in regional Hg monitoring can be improved by adding new Hg monitoring to existing NADP acid-rain monitoring sites. Implementation of the GLAMM network design will require Hg-wet-deposition monitoring to be: (a) continued at 12 MDN sites active in 2013 and (b) restarted or added at 9 NADP sites where it is absent in 2013. Ongoing discussions between the states in the Great Lakes Region, the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (a regional planning entity), the NADP, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Geological Survey are needed for coordinating the GLAMM network.

Great Lakes↗

Nitrogen isotopes indicate vehicle emissions and biomass burning dominate ambient ammonia across Colorado's Front Range urban corridor

Urban ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions contribute to poor local air quality and can be transported to rural landscapes, impacting sensitive ecosystems. The Colorado Front Range urban corridor encompasses the Denver Metropolitan Area, rural farmland/rangeland and montane forest between the city and the Rocky Mountains. Reactive nitrogen emissions from the corridor are partly responsible for increased N deposition to the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in this region. To determine the significance of individual NH 3 sources to WUI ecosystems, we measured the concentration and isotopic composition (δ 15 N–NH 3 ) of ambient NH 3(g) from April to October 2018 across a five-site urban to rural gradient in the corridor. The urban sites had higher NH 3 concentrations and δ 15 N–NH 3 values than the rural/suburban sites. Based on isotope mixing models, NH 3 emission source contributions for all sites were fertilizer (12 ± 5.7%), livestock waste (18 ± 12%), vehicles (37 ± 23%), and biomass burning (34 ± 20%). Vehicle contributions were consistent across all months with an average of 35% and summer months showed a peak in biomass burning contributions (40%). As wildfires are projected to increase due to climate change, we stress a need for constraints on the isotopic signature of NH 3 emitted from wildfires. Vehicle emissions contributed the greatest amount of NH 3 (40%) at the urban sites while rural/suburban sites had higher agricultural contributions (41%). Had 2018 not had an anomalously high wildfire season, 46% and 60% of the NH 3 would have been attributed to vehicle emissions at the WUI site and urban sites, respectively. NH 3 emissions have historically been ascribed to agricultural activities but these findings illustrate the universal significance of vehicle emissions and the potential for sustained wildfire activity to be a primary contributor to NH 3 . Air quality (e.g., particulate matter) and nitrogen deposition reduction plans may benefit by including management practices that address vehicle NH 3 emissions.

Colorado↗

Status and trends of total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, loads, and yields in streams of Mississippi, water years 2008–18

To assess the status and trends of conditions of surface waters throughout Mississippi, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), summarized concentrations and estimated loads, yields, trends, and spatial and temporal patterns of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) at 20 stream sites in MDEQ’s ambient water-quality monitoring network and 2 stream sites in the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Project’s monitoring network. Comparison of streamflow at the time of water-quality sample collection to flow-duration curves for each site showed that samples were relatively evenly spread over a wide range of flows, indicating that load estimations were representative of a wide range of flows. Relation of streamflow to concentrations of TN and TP varied among sites and land use. Sites with high agriculture land use in the drainage basin tended to have a positive correlation between streamflow and concentration, suggesting influence of event-driven nonpoint-source runoff. Sites near urban (developed) areas tended to have a negative correlation between streamflow and concentration, suggesting chronic point-source influences during low-flow conditions. Sites with high forest land use and lower agriculture and urban (developed) land use showed little to no association between streamflow and concentration. Seasonal distributions of concentrations of TN and TP also corresponded closely with variations in land use. Sites near urban (developed) land had the highest concentrations in late summer and fall, sites with a high percentage of agricultural land had the highest concentrations in the spring, and sites that were primarily forested or with little developed land did not exhibit substantial changes in concentration across seasons. Eight sites had statistical likelihoods for upward trends of TN loads, and seven sites had statistical likelihoods for downward trends. Trends in TN loads at six sites were considered “about as likely as not,” meaning that a site has an equal chance of having an upward or downward trend. Trend results of mean annual flow-normalized loads of TP for the period of analysis (2008–18) showed that 16 sites had upward trends, 3 sites had downward trends, and 2 sites were considered “about as likely as not.” Results from our study were compared to results from existing regional models to assess accuracy of predictions at a local scale. Comparisons of yields predicted from 2012 regional-scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) to results from this study showed the 2012 SPARROW-predicted estimates varied in consistency with results from this study. The 2012 SPARROW-prediction model underestimated TN yields, more often and by a slightly larger degree, more than it overestimated TN yields. The 2012 SPARROW-predicted model tended to underestimate yields at study sites with higher yields. All four sites in the predominantly agricultural area of northwest Mississippi, locally known as the Mississippi Delta, were underestimated by 2012 SPARROW. For TP, yield comparisons at sites with lower yields were consistent, yields at sites with midrange yields tended to be overestimated by SPARROW, and yields at sites with high yields tended to be underestimated by SPARROW. TP yields at four sites in the Mississippi Delta were underestimated by the 2012 SPARROW-predicted model. Results of select sites from our study were also compared to other published load estimates from an earlier time period to evaluate possible trends. Comparison of TN yields at four sites and TP yields at three sites from the study-derived estimates to estimates made from data spanning 1993–2004 showed decreasing TN yields at all four sites and decreasing TP yields at two of three sites, with increasing yields of TP at the Yazoo River lower site. Also, a third comparison of the TN and TP yields of the Yazoo River lower site of this study to estimates made from data spanning 1996–97 showed decreasing TN yields but similar TP yields. This suggests that TN yields may have decreased over the last 20–30 years, but TP yields remain constant or are increasing.

Mississippi↗

Compilation of mercury data and associated risk to human and ecosystem health, Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, Wisconsin

Mercury is an environmentally ubiquitous neurotoxin, and its methylated form presents health risks to humans and other biota, primarily through dietary intake. Because methylmercury bioaccumulates and biomagnifies in living tissue, concentrations progressively increase at higher trophic positions in ecosystem food webs. Therefore, the greatest health risks are for organisms at the highest trophic positions and for humans who consume organisms such as fish from these high trophic positions. Data on environmental mercury concentrations in various media and biota provide a basis for comparison among sites and regions and for evaluating ecosystem health risks. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Natural Resources Department, Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, have compiled a dataset from analyses of mercury concentrations in surface water, bed sediment, fish tissue, Rana clamitans (green frog) tissue, Haliaeetus leucocephalus (bald eagle) feathers, Lontra canadensis (North American river otter) hair, Zizania palustris (northern wild rice), and litterfall from samples collected in the Bad River watershed, Wisconsin during 2004–18. These data originated from either the Natural Resources Department or another agency based on samples collected within or near to Bad River Tribal lands before transfer to the U.S. Geological Survey for compilation and analysis at the onset of the project. This report describes the compiled mercury dataset, provides comparisons to similar measurements in the region and elsewhere, and evaluates health risks to humans and to the sampled biota. Except for litterfall, data were not collected on a consistent, regular basis over a sufficient period to evaluate temporal patterns. The reported mercury concentrations are generally similar to those reported elsewhere in the upper Great Lakes region. Reported values are consistent with atmospheric deposition as the principal source and reflect a favorable environment for mercury methylation. Fish mercury concentrations increased at higher food web positions and generally increased with length in most species measured. Sander vitreus (walleye) present the greatest risk to humans among fishes considered here because of their high trophic position and associated elevated mercury concentrations in combination with relatively high walleye consumption rates by the Native American community. Methylmercury concentrations in wild rice are generally low and likely pose little health risk. Despite reports of declining atmospheric mercury deposition across eastern North America during the past decade, a downward trend in litterfall mercury deposition was not evident in samples collected during 2012–18. Limitations in this data compilation and analysis were noted due to missing information such as collection dates and site locations for some samples. Regular monitoring of mercury in litterfall and surface waters along with periodic collection of fish would enable evaluation of temporal change in the mercury cycle that might affect future risk to humans and aquatic ecosystem inhabitants.

Wisconsin↗

Early Pliocene (Zanclean) sea surface temperature for PlioMIP3

Paleoclimate researchers have been comparing Pliocene environmental data to paleoclimate model results since the 1980s. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) began in 2008 with a focus on the Late Pliocene. Here we assess the availability and utility of sea surface temperature (SST) data for verification of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP3) Early Pliocene (Zanclean) experiments. We analyze published data in terms of quantity and spatial distribution. Only SST estimates derived using alkenone paleo thermometry are reported, and all estimates are based upon the same temperature calibration. Sea surface temperature data are selected from within three distinct time intervals: The early Zanclean 5.3 Ma – 4.2 Ma time slab, and two time slices within the early Zanclean, chosen by PlioMIP3 at 4.870 Ma and 4.474 Ma. Results show the early Zanclean time slab contains 2055 individual estimates. Approximately ∼ 80% of these estimates come from Sites 609, 642, 846, 847, 882, 907, and 1146. There are 17 sites with a total of 42 estimates within the 4.474 Ma ±10 kyr time slice, and 15 sites with a total of 47 data points within the 4.870 Ma ±10 kyr interval. The sparse spatial and temporal distribution of Zanclean data, relative to the data available for the mid Piacenzian, makes point-by-point data model comparison suspect. We suggest interpreting model output against lower resolution long term trends in proxy data, and comparison of models through temperature gradients, may be the most useful application of currently available data. Integrating Zanclean age coastal plain sequences within data model comparison schemes, for increased understanding of regional climate impacts, also holds great potential.

Global and Planetary Change↗

Effects of climate and irrigation on GRACE-based estimates of water storage changes in major US aquifers

Understanding climate and human impacts on water storage is critical for sustainable water-resources management. Here we assessed climate and human drivers of total water storage (TWS) variability from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites compared with drought severity and irrigation water use in 14 major aquifers in the United States. Results show that long-term variability in TWS tracked by GRACE satellites is dominated by interannual variability in most of the 14 major US aquifers. Low TWS trends in the humid eastern U.S. are linked to low drought intensity. Although irrigation pumpage in the humid Mississippi Embayment aquifer exceeded that in the semi-arid California Central Valley, a surprising lack of TWS depletion in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer is attributed to extensive streamflow capture. Marked storage depletion in the semi-arid southwestern Central Valley and south-central High Plains totaled ∼90 km 3 , about three times greater than the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest U.S. reservoir. Depletion in the Central Valley was driven by long-term droughts (⩽5 yr) amplified by switching from mostly surface water to groundwater irrigation. Low or slightly rising TWS trends in the northwestern (Columbia and Snake Basins) US are attributed to dampening drought impacts by mostly surface water irrigation. GRACE satellite data highlight synergies between climate and irrigation, resulting in little impact on TWS in the humid east, amplified TWS depletion in the semi-arid southwest and southcentral US, and dampened TWS deletion in the northwest and north central US Sustainable groundwater management benefits from conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, inefficient surface water irrigation promoting groundwater recharge, efficient groundwater irrigation minimizing depletion, and increasing managed aquifer recharge. This study has important implications for sustainable water development in many regions globally.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Agriculture

Agricultural production is a fundamental activity conducted on 45% of the U.S. land area, 55% of Mexico’s land area, and 7% of Canada’s land area (World Bank 2016). Because of this vast spatial extent and the strong role that land management plays in how agricultural ecosystems function, agricultural lands and activities represent a large portion of the North American carbon budget. Accordingly, improved quantification of the agricultural carbon cycle, new trends in agriculture, and added opportunities for emissions reductions provide a critical foundation for considering the relationships between agriculture and carbon cycling at local, regional, continental, and global scales. More than 145 countries have specifically included agriculture in their targets and actions for mitigating climate change (FAO 2016), and agriculture has featured particularly prominently in recent target and action commitments made by developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Richards et al., 2015). Conversion of vast native forest and prairie to agriculture across North America between 1860 and 1960 resulted in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes to the atmosphere from biota and soils that exceeded those from fossil fuel emissions over the same period (Houghton et al., 1983). Correspondingly, soil organic carbon (SOC) declined in many soils during the 50 years following conversion from native ecosystems to production agriculture (Huggins et al., 1998; Janzen et al., 1998; Slobodian et al., 2002). Crop yields and corresponding above- and belowground biomass have steadily increased since the 1930s due to genetic and management innovations, which provide more organic input from which to build SOC ( Johnson et al., 2006; Hatfield and Walthall 2015). This, coupled with improved input-use efficiencies may reduce GHG-emissions per unit yield (GHG intensity), with additional improvements possible through management optimization (Grassini and Cassman 2012; Pittelkow et al., 2015). Options include reducing tillage, integrating perennials onto the landscape, reducing or eliminating bare-fallow land (i.e., land without living plants), adding cover crops, and enrolling lands in conservation easement programs. These options, originally proposed to control erosion, have potential co-benefits in terms of increased soil health, plant productivity, and soil carbon stabilization (Lehman et al., 2015). Conversely, returning lands previously enrolled in conservation easements (e.g., the Conservation Reserve Program [CRP] and other land set-aside efforts) to row-crop production, tillage, or aggressive harvesting of crop residues all risk degrading soil quality and exacerbating SOC loss. Of note is that the net results of land use and land management practices in an agricultural setting vary according to many factors, such as crop or production system type, soil type, climate, and the collection of practices at any given site. For example, many traditional practices followed by Indigenous people on tribal lands are based on an integrated approach to natural resource management and response to environmental change that may provide agricultural options uniquely suited to varied environmental settings (see Ch. 7: Tribal Lands, p. 303). Agricultural land in the United States totaled 408.2 million hectares (ha) in 2014, of which 251 million ha were in permanent meadows and pastures, 152.2 million ha were in arable land, and 2.6 million ha were in permanent crops (FAOSTAT 2016). Compared with the distribution in 2007, these numbers reflect a 4.7 million ha decline in total agricultural lands, driven by declines in arable land and permanent crops but partially offset by a modest increase in permanent meadows and pastures. Although arable lands have been declining, the combined acreage of the four major crops (corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton) has risen slightly, with increases in land planted in corn and soybeans and decreases in cotton and wheat (see Figure 5.1, p. 232). Despite the overall slight decline in agricultural land area, the value of U.S. agricultural production rose over the past decade as a result of increased production efficiency and higher prices (USDA 2017a; see also www.ers.usda.gov). Canada has about 65 million ha of agricultural land, of which about 46 million ha are arable, accounting for only about 7% of the country’s total land area (FAOSTAT 2017). Prominent crops on Canada’s arable lands include cereals (e.g., wheat, barley, and maize), oilseeds (e.g., canola and soybeans), and pulses (e.g., peas and lentils). Natural and seeded pastures available for grazing in Canada make up about 20 million ha (Legesse et al., 2016). Agricultural land in Mexico makes up 107 million ha, of which 23 million ha are arable land, 2.7 million ha are permanent crops, and 81 million ha are permanent meadows and pastures (FAOSTAT 2017). Mexico’s major crops are fruits, corn, grains, vegetables, and sugarcane.

Report↗

All equal-area map projections are created equal, but some are more equal than others

High-resolution regional and global raster databases are currently being generated for a variety of environmental and scientific modeling applications. The projection of these data from geographic coordinates to a plane coordinate system is subject to significant areal error. Sources of error include users selecting an inappropriate projection or incorrect parameters for a given projection, algorithmic errors in commercial geographic information system (GIS) software, and errors resulting from the projection of data in the raster format. To assess the latter type of errors, the accuracy of raster projection was analyzed by two methods. First, a set of 12 one-degree by one-degree quadrilaterals placed at various latitudes was projected at several raster resolutions and compared to the projection of a vector representation of the same quadrilaterals. Second, several different raster resolutions of land cover data for Asia were projected and the total areas of 21 land cover categories were tabulated and compared. While equal-area projections are designed to specifically preserve area, the comparison of the results of the one-degree by one-degree quadrilaterals with the common equal area projections (e.g., the Mollweide) indicates a considerable variance in the one-degree area after projection. Similarly, the empirical comparison of land cover areas for Asia among various projections shows that total areas of land cover vary with projection type, raster resolution, and latitude. No single projection is best for all resolutions and all latitudes. While any of the equal-area projections tested are reasonably accurate for most applications with resolutions of eight-kilometer pixels or smaller, significant variances in accuracies appear at larger pixel sizes.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗

Variability in terrestrial characteristics and erosion rates on the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast

Arctic coastal environments are eroding and rapidly changing. A lack of pan-Arctic observations limits our ability to understand controls on coastal erosion rates across the entire Arctic region. Here, we capitalize on an abundance of geospatial and remotely sensed data, in addition to model output, from the North Slope of Alaska to identify relationships between historical erosion rates and landscape characteristics to guide future modeling and observational efforts across the Arctic. Using existing datasets from the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast and a hierarchical clustering algorithm, we developed a set of 16 coastal typologies that captures the defining characteristics of environments susceptible to coastal erosion. Relationships between landscape characteristics and historical erosion rates show that no single variable alone is a good predictor of erosion rates. Variability in erosion rate decreases with increasing coastal elevation, but erosion rate magnitudes are highest for intermediate elevations. Areas along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast (ABSC) protected by barrier islands showed a three times lower erosion rate on average, suggesting that barrier islands are critical to maintaining mainland shore position. Finally, typologies with the highest erosion rates are not broadly representative of the ABSC and are generally associated with low elevation, north- to northeast-facing shorelines, a peaty pebbly silty lithology, and glaciomarine deposits with high ice content. All else being equal, warmer permafrost is also associated with higher erosion rates, suggesting that warming permafrost temperatures may contribute to higher future erosion rates on permafrost coasts. The suite of typologies can be used to guide future modeling and observational efforts by quantifying the distribution of coastlines with specific landscape characteristics and erosion rates.

Alaska↗

Reorganization of vegetation, hydrology and soil carbon after permafrost degradation across heterogeneous boreal landscapes

The diversity of ecosystems across boreal landscapes, successional changes after disturbance and complicated permafrost histories, present enormous challenges for assessing how vegetation, water and soil carbon may respond to climate change in boreal regions. To address this complexity, we used a chronosequence approach to assess changes in vegetation composition, water storage and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks along successional gradients within four landscapes: (1) rocky uplands on ice-poor hillside colluvium, (2) silty uplands on extremely ice-rich loess, (3) gravelly–sandy lowlands on ice-poor eolian sand and (4) peaty–silty lowlands on thick ice-rich peat deposits over reworked lowland loess. In rocky uplands, after fire permafrost thawed rapidly due to low ice contents, soils became well drained and SOC stocks decreased slightly. In silty uplands, after fire permafrost persisted, soils remained saturated and SOC decreased slightly. In gravelly–sandy lowlands where permafrost persisted in drier forest soils, loss of deeper permafrost around lakes has allowed recent widespread drainage of lakes that has exposed limnic material with high SOC to aerobic decomposition. In peaty–silty lowlands, 2–4 m of thaw settlement led to fragmented drainage patterns in isolated thermokarst bogs and flooding of soils, and surface soils accumulated new bog peat. We were not able to detect SOC changes in deeper soils, however, due to high variability. Complicated soil stratigraphy revealed that permafrost has repeatedly aggraded and degraded in all landscapes during the Holocene, although in silty uplands only the upper permafrost was affected. Overall, permafrost thaw has led to the reorganization of vegetation, water storage and flow paths, and patterns of SOC accumulation. However, changes have occurred over different timescales among landscapes: over decades in rocky uplands and gravelly–sandy lowlands in response to fire and lake drainage, over decades to centuries in peaty–silty lowlands with a legacy of complicated Holocene changes, and over centuries in silty uplands where ice-rich soil and ecological recovery protect permafrost.

Alaska↗

Hydrogeologic and geochemical characterization and evaluation of two arroyos for managed aquifer recharge by surface infiltration in the Pojoaque River Basin, Santa Fe County, New Mexico, 2014–15

In order to provide long-term storage of diverted surface water from the Rio Grande as part of the Aamodt water rights settlement, managed aquifer recharge by surface infiltration in Pojoaque River Basin arroyos was proposed as an option. The initial hydrogeologic and geochemical characterization of two arroyos located within the Pojoaque River Basin was performed in 2014 and 2015 in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation to evaluate the potential suitability of these two arroyos as sites for managed aquifer recharge through surface infiltration. The selected reaches were high-gradient (average 3.0–3.5 percent) braided channels filled with unconsolidated sand and gravel-sized deposits that were generally 30–50 feet thick. Saturation was not observed in the unconsolidated channel sands in four subsurface borings but was found at 7–60 feet below the contact between the unconsolidated channel sands and the bedrock. The poorly to well-cemented alluvial deposits that make up the bedrock underlying the unconsolidated channel material is the Tesuque Formation. The individual beds of the Tesuque Formation are reported to be highly heterogeneous and anisotropic, and the bedrock at the site was observed to have variable moisture and large changes in lithology. Surface electrical-resistivity geophysical survey methods showed a sharp contrast between the electrically resistive unconsolidated channel sands and the highly conductive bedrock; however, because of the high conductivity, the resistivity methods were not able to image the water table or preferential flow paths (if they existed) in the bedrock. Infiltration rates measured by double-ring and bulk infiltration tests on a variety of channel morphologies in the study reaches were extremely large (9.7–94.5 feet per day), indicating that the channels could potentially accommodate as much as 6.6 cubic feet per second of applied water without generating surface runoff out of the reach; however, the small volume available for storage in the unconsolidated channel sands (about 410 acre-feet in the east arroyo and about 190 acre-feet in the west arroyo) and the potential for the infiltrating water to preferentially flow over the bedrock contact and out of the reach present a challenge for storing water. Although a detailed assessment of the infiltration rate of the Tesuque Formation is beyond the scope of this investigation, one double-ring infiltrometer test was conducted on an outcrop, resulting in an estimated infiltration rate of about 4 feet per day. The shallow groundwater observed in this investigation was determined to be recharged locally on the basis of groundwater elevations and geochemical and isotopic signatures. The channel sands and shallow bedrock were observed to be weathered, indicating contact with oxic groundwater following deposition. This observation was supported by whole-rock elemental analysis and mineralogy of several core samples. The downward groundwater gradient between the shallow wells and those wells screened at greater depths suggests that the shallow groundwater is recharged by local precipitation and has the potential to migrate to the deeper aquifer units. The two age-dating tracers measured in this investigation, however, demonstrate that the shallow groundwater flow paths are very slow and that the deeper flow paths are likely part of a larger regional system. The composition of the shallow, native groundwater suggests that storing water diverted from the Rio Grande is not likely to leach constituents of concern that would cause the stored water to exceed health-based U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels.

New Mexico↗

Carbonate margin, slope, and basin facies of the Lisburne Group (Carboniferous-Permian) in northern Alaska

The Lisburne Group (Carboniferous-Permian) consists of a carbonate platform that extends for >1000 km across northern Alaska, and diverse margin, slope, and basin facies that contain world-class deposits of Zn and Ba, notable phosphorites, and petroleum source rocks. Lithologic, paleontologic, isotopic, geochemical, and seismic data gathered from outcrop and subsurface studies during the past 20 years allow us to delineate the distribution, composition, and age of the off-platform facies, and to better understand the physical and chemical conditions under which they formed. The southern edge of the Lisburne platform changed from a gently sloping, homoclinal ramp in the east to a tectonically complex, distally steepened margin in the west that was partly bisected by the extensional Kuna Basin (~200 by 600 km). Carbonate turbidites, black mudrocks, and radiolarian chert accumulated in this basin; turbidites were generated mainly during times of eustatic rise in the late Early and middle Late Mississippian. Interbedded black mudrocks (up to 20 wt% total organic carbon), granular and nodular phosphorite (up to 37 wt% P 2 O 5 ), and fine-grained limestone rich in radiolarians and sponge spicules formed along basin margins during the middle Late Mississippian in response to a nutrient-rich, upwelling regime. Detrital zircons from a turbidite sample in the western Kuna Basin have mainly Neoproterozoic through early Paleozoic U-Pb ages (~900-400 Ma), with subordinate populations of Mesoproterozoic and late Paleoproterozoic grains. This age distribution is similar to that found in slightly older rocks along the northern and western margins of the basin. It also resembles age distributions reported from Carboniferous and older strata elsewhere in northwestern Alaska and on Wrangel Island. Geochemical and isotopic data indicate that suboxic, denitrifying conditions prevailed in the Kuna Basin and along its margins. High V/Mo, Cr/Mo, and Re/Mo ratios (all marine fractions [MF]) and low MnO contents (<0.01 wt%) characterize Lisburne black mudrocks. Low Qmf/Vmf ratios (mostly 0.8-4.0) suggest moderately to strongly denitrifying conditions in suboxic bottom waters during siliciclastic and phosphorite sedimentation. Elevated to high Mo contents (31-135 ppm) in some samples are consistent with seasonal to intermittent sulfidic conditions in bottom waters, developed mainly along the basin margin. High d 15 N values (6-120) imply that the waters supplying nutrients to primary producers in the photic zone had a history of denitrification either in the water column or in underlying sediments. Demise of the Lisburne platform was diachronous and reflects tectonic, eustatic, and environmental drivers. Southwestern, south-central, and northwestern parts of the platform drowned during the Late Mississippian, coincident with Zn and Ba metallogenesis within the Kuna Basin and phosphogenesis along basin margins. This drowning was temporary (except in the southwest) and likely due to eutrophication associated with upwelling and sea-level rise enhanced by regional extension, which allowed suboxic, denitrifying waters to form on platform margins. Final drowning in the southcentral area occurred in the Early Pennsylvanian and also may have been linked to regional extension. In the northwest, platform sedimentation persisted into the Permian; its demise there appears to have been due to increased siliciclastic input. Climatic cooling may have produced additional stress on parts of the Lisburne platform biota during Pennsylvanian and Permian times.

Alaska↗

Water-quality assessment of the Kentucky River Basin, Kentucky: Distribution of metals and other trace elements in sediment and water, 1987-90

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program is designed to provide a nationally consistent description of the current status of water quality, to define water-quality trends, and to relate past and present water-quality conditions to natural features, uses of land and water, and other water-quality effects from human activities. The Kentucky River Basin is one of four NAWQA pilot projects that focused primarily on the quality of surface water. Water, sediment, and bedrock samples were collected in the Kentucky River Basin during 1987-90 for the purpose of (1) describing the spatial distribution, transport, and temporal variability of metals and other trace elements in streams of the basin; (2) estimating mean annual loads, yields, and trends of constituent concentrations and identifying potential causes (or sources) of spatial patterns; (3) providing baseline information for concentrations of metals in streambed and suspended sediments; (4) identifying stream reaches in the Kentucky River Basin with chronic water-quality problems; and (5) evaluating the merits of the NAWQA pilot study-approach for the assessment of metals and other trace elements in a river system. The spatial distribution of metals and other trace elements in streambed sediments of the Kentucky River Basin is associated with regional differences of geology, land use and cover, and the results of human activities. Median concentrations of constituents differed significantly among physiographic regions of the basin because of relations to bedrock geochemistry and land disturbance. Concentrations of potentially toxic metals were large in urban and industrial areas of the basin. Elevated concentrations of certain metals were also found in streambed sediments of the Knobs Region because of the presence of Devonian shale bedrock. Elevated concentrations of lead and zinc found in streambed sediments of the Bluegrass Region are likely associated with urban stormwater runoff, point-source discharges, and waste-management practices. Concentrations of cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury, and silver were elevated in streambed sediments downstream from wastewater-treatment plant discharges. Streambed-sediment concentrations of barium, chromium, and lithium were elevated in streams that receive brine discharges from oil production. Elevated concentrations of antimony, arsenic, molybdenum, selenium, strontium, uranium, and vanadium in streambed sediments of the Kentucky River Basin were generally associated with natural sources. Concentrations of metals and other trace elements in water samples from fixed stations (stations where water-quality samples were collected for 3.5 years) in the Kentucky River Basin were generally related to stream discharge and the concentration of suspended sediment, whereas constituent concentrations in the suspended-sediment matrix were indicative of natural and human sources. Estimated mean annual loads and yields for most metals and other trace elements were associated with the transport of suspended sediment. Land disturbance, such as surface mining and agriculture, contribute to increased transport of sediment in streams, thereby increasing concentrations of metals in water samples during periods of intense or prolonged rainfall and increased stream discharge. Concentrations of many metals and trace elements were reduced during low streamflow. Although total-recoverable and dissolved concentrations of certain metals and trace elements were large in streams affected by land disturbance, concentrations of constituents in the suspendedsediment matrix were commonly large in streams in the Knobs and Eastern Coal Field Regions (because of relations with bedrock geochemistry) and in streams that receive wastewater or oil-well-brine discharges. Concentrations and mean annual load estimates for aluminum, chromium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and mercury were larger than those obtained from data collected by a State agency, probably because of differences in sample-collection methodology, the range of discharge associated with water-quality samples, and laboratory analytical procedures. However, concentrations, loads, and yields of arsenic, barium, and zinc were similar to those determined from the State data. Significant upward trends in the concentrations of aluminum, iron, magnesium, manganese, and zinc were indicated at one or more fixed stations in the Kentucky River Basin during the past 10 to 15 years. Upward trends for concentrations of aluminum, iron, and manganese were found at sites that receive drainage from coal mines in the upper Kentucky River Basin, whereas upward trends for zinc may be associated with urban sources. Water-quality criteria established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) or the State of Kentucky for concentrations of aluminum, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, silver, and zinc were exceeded at one or more fixed stations in the Kentucky River Basin. On a qualitative basis, dissolved concentrations of certain metals and trace elements were large during low streamflow at sites where (1) concentrations of these constituents in underlying streambed sediments were large, or (2) dissolvedoxygen concentrations were small. Concentrations of barium, lithium, and strontium were large during low streamflow, which indicates the influence of ground-water baseflows on the quality of surface water during low flow. The effects of point-source discharges, landfills, and other wastemanagement practices are somewhat localized in the Kentucky River Basin and are best indicated by the spatial distribution of metals and other trace elements in streambed sediments and in the suspended-sediment fraction of water samples at stream locations near the source. It was not possible to quantify the contribution of point sources to the total transport of metals and other trace elements at fixed stations because data were not available for wastewater effluents. Quantification of baseline concentrations of metals and other trace elements in streambed sediments provides a basis for the detection of water-quality changes that may result from improvements in wastewater treatment or the implementation of best-management practices for controlling contamination from nonpoint sources in the Kentucky River Basin.

Kentucky↗

Human activities cause distinct dissolved organic matter composition across freshwater ecosystems

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition in freshwater ecosystems is influenced by interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes that are controlled, at one level, by watershed landscape, hydrology, and their connections. Against this environmental template, humans may strongly influence DOM composition. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of DOM composition variation across freshwater ecosystems differentially affected by human activity. Using optical properties, we described DOM variation across five ecosystem groups of the Laurentian Great Lakes Region: large lakes, Kawartha Lakes, Experimental Lakes Area, urban stormwater ponds, and rivers (n = 184 sites). We determined how between ecosystem variation in DOM composition related to watershed size, land use and cover, water quality measures (conductivity, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrient concentration, chlorophyll a ), and human population density. The five freshwater ecosystem groups had distinctive DOM composition from each other. These significant differences were not explained completely through differences in watershed size nor spatial autocorrelation. Instead, multivariate partial least squares regression showed that DOM composition was related to differences in human impact across freshwater ecosystems. In particular, urban/developed watersheds with higher human population densities had a unique DOM composition with a clear anthropogenic influence that was distinct from DOM composition in natural land cover and/or agricultural watersheds. This nonagricultural, human developed impact on aquatic DOM was most evident through increased levels of a microbial, humic-like parallel factor analysis component (C6). Lotic and lentic ecosystems with low human population densities had DOM compositions more typical of clear water to humic-rich freshwater ecosystems but C6 was only present at trace to background levels. Consequently, humans are strongly altering the quality of DOM in waters nearby or flowing through highly populated areas, which may alter carbon cycles in anthropogenically disturbed ecosystems at broad scales.

Global Change Biology↗

Prioritizing river basins for nutrient studies

Increases in fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the environment have led to negative impacts affecting drinking water, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Because of the importance, scale, and complexity of these issues, it may be useful to consider methods for prioritizing nutrient research in representative drainage basins within a regional or national context. Two systematic, quantitative approaches were developed to (1) identify basins that geospatial data suggest are most impacted by nutrients and (2) identify basins that have the most variability in factors affecting nutrient sources and transport in order to prioritize basins for studies that seek to understand the key drivers of nutrient impacts. The “impact” approach relied on geospatial variables representing surface-water and groundwater nutrient concentrations, sources of N and P, and potential impacts on receptors (i.e., ecosystems and human health). The “variability” approach relied on geospatial variables representing surface-water nutrient concentrations, factors affecting sources and transport of nutrients, model accuracy, and potential receptor impacts. One hundred and sixty-three drainage basins throughout the contiguous United States were ranked nationally and within 18 hydrologic regions. Nationally, the top-ranked basins from the impact approach were concentrated in the Midwest, while those from the variability approach were dispersed across the nation. Regionally, the top-ranked basin selected by the two approaches differed in 15 of the 18 regions, with top-ranked basins selected by the variability approach having lower minimum concentrations and larger ranges in concentrations than top-ranked basins selected by the impact approach. The highest ranked basins identified using the variability approach may have advantages for exploring how landscape factors affect surface-water quality and how surface-water quality may affect ecosystems. In contrast, the impact approach prioritized basins in terms of human development and nutrient concentrations in both surface water and groundwater, thereby targeting areas where actions to reduce nutrient concentrations could have the largest effect on improving water availability and reducing ecosystem impacts.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska

There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and tested a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layer caused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness of 1.1 m on average by 2100. The combination of warming and fire led to a simulated cumulative loss of 9.6 kgC m −2 on average by 2100. Our analysis suggests that ecosystem carbon storage in boreal forests in interior Alaska is particularly vulnerable, primarily due to the combustion of organic layer thickness in fire and the related increase in active layer thickness that exposes previously protected permafrost soil carbon to decomposition.

Alaska↗

Simulating burn severity maps at 30 meters in two forested regions in California

Climate change is altering wildfire behavior and vegetation regimes in California’s forested ecosystems. Present day fires are seeing an increase in high burn severity area and high severity patch size. The ability to predict future burn severity patterns would support better policy and land management decisions. Here we demonstrate a methodology to first, statistically estimate individual burn severity classes at 30 meters and second, cluster and smooth high severity patches onto a landscape. Our goal here was not to exactly replicate observed burn severity maps, but rather to utilize observed maps as one realization of a random process dependent on climate, topography, fire weather, and fuels, to inform creation of additional realizations through our simulation technique. We developed two sets of empirical models with two different vegetation datasets to test if coarse vegetation could accurately model for burn severity. While visual acuity can be used to assess the performance of our simulation process, we also employ the Ripley’s K function to compare spatial point processes at different scales to test if the simulation is capturing an appropriate amount of clustering. We utilize FRAGSTATS to obtain high severity patch metrics to test the contiguity of our high severity simulation. Ripley’s K function helped identify the number of clustering iterations and FRAGSTATS showed how different focal window sizes affected our ability to cluster high severity patches. High severity patch simulations was comparable between the coarse and fine resolution vegetation datasets. Improving our ability to simulate burn severity will help advance our understanding of the potential influence of land and fuels management on ecosystem-level response variables that are important for decision-makers. Simulated burn severity maps can support managing habitat and estimating risks of habitat loss, protecting infrastructure and homes, improving future wildfire emissions projections, and better mapping and planning for fuels treatment scenarios.

California↗