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USGS2019

Hydrologic site assessment for passive treatment of groundwater nitrogen with permeable reactive barriers, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Wastewater disposal associated with rapid population growth and development on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, during the past several decades has resulted in widespread contamination of groundwater with nitrogen. As a result, water quality in many of the streams, lakes, and coastal embayments on Cape Cod is impaired by excess nitrogen. To reduce nitrogen loads to these impaired water bodies, watershed-based planning is currently [2019] underway following a regional strategy, the section 208 areawide water-quality management plan update for Cape Cod. In the updated plan, traditional (sewering) and alternative wastewater management options are under consideration for restoring water quality in impaired surface-water bodies. Permeable reactive barriers, which are reactive zones emplaced below the water table for passive treatment of groundwater contaminants, are one of the alternatives being considered by Cape Cod towns as a potentially cost-effective technology for the removal of nitrogen from groundwater. However, the effectiveness of permeable reactive barriers depends on local conditions, and site-specific hydrologic and water-quality data are needed to inform the decision to install a permeable reactive barrier in a given location. These data are not available in most locations on Cape Cod; consequently, site assessments are needed before selecting this treatment option. To address this need, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, and Cape Cod Commission formed a technical team in 2015 to develop and evaluate a hydrologic site-assessment approach for permeable reactive barrier installation. The approach developed by the technical team includes a preliminary regional assessment followed by a phased onsite investigation. The approach was intended to provide the hydrologic data needed to make informed decisions on site suitability and to support installation and monitoring should the site be deemed appropriate for a permeable reactive barrier. The factors that were evaluated to characterize local hydrologic conditions and inform site selection included groundwater flow directions and rates, depth to the water table, hydraulic conductivity and degree of heterogeneity of the aquifer, spatial distribution and concentration of nitrate and oxidation-reduction-sensitive constituents, thickness and depth of the treatment zone, distance to downgradient water bodies, and access for drilling and permeable reactive barrier installation. The approach was demonstrated on Cape Cod by conducting a preliminary assessment of 27 sites, from which 5 sites were selected for onsite investigations. Results indicated that the site-assessment approach was successful for screening sites and characterizing the geologic, hydrologic, and water-quality conditions at the sites selected for onsite investigations. Overall, the phased assessment evaluated in this study provided an efficient means of obtaining the hydrologic information needed to determine if a site was suitable for permeable reactive barrier installation on Cape Cod for the passive treatment of nitrogen in groundwater.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2019

The lava flow that came to Hilo—The 1880–81 eruption of Mauna Loa volcano, Island of Hawai‘i

The Mauna Loa eruption sequence of 1880–81 consists of two eruptions. The May 1880 eruption in Mokuʻāweoweo at the summit of Mauna Loa lasted just a few days and was followed 6 months later by three lava flows that issued from vents along the Northeast Rift Zone. The November 1880 eruption lasted almost a year and one of its flows nearly reached Hilo Bay. Public reaction in Hilo to the advancing lava flow increased as the lava got closer, but a smallpox quarantine prevented travelers and government officials from leaving Honolulu, the government seat of the Hawaiian Kingdom, until July 1881. In the King’s absence, his sister Princess Regent Liliʻuokalani and key officials met in Hilo at the beginning of August to plan a government response. This included the first known plan to use barriers and explosives to divert the lava flow in Hawaiʻi. Fortunately, the lava flow stopped before the plan was enacted; however, both Christian prayer and traditional Hawaiian chants and gifts to the Hawaiian deity Pele were offered in the last few weeks of lava activity. Mauna Loa was again restless in 2019 and the time seems optimum to review this and other Mauna Loa flows, in order to be ready for the next lava flow. Should the next flow threaten developed areas, review of past lava flow threats may provide valuable experience on how the public may best be provided with information.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Landscape evolution in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California

This study investigates sedimentary and geomorphic processes in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, Riverside County, California, a region of arid, basin-and-range terrain where extensive solar-energy development is planned. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure local weather parameters and use them to model aeolian sediment-transport potential; (2) identify surface sedimentary characteristics in representative localities; and (3) evaluate long-term landscape evolution rates and processes by analyzing stratigraphy in combination with luminescence geochronology. The new stratigraphic and geochronologic data presented in this report demonstrate the varying local significance of aeolian, alluvial fan, lacustrine (playa), and possibly Colorado River influence over a range of time scales. The dominant sand-transport direction in eastern Chuckwalla Valley is toward the northeast, consistent with the recognized regional west-to-east wind direction. However, occasional strong wind events from the north can transport large quantities of sand southward and temporarily reshape local geomorphic features. Influence of a northwest wind direction is also locally dominant around mountain ranges and controls the modern morphology of the Palen dune field. Modeled sand fluxes are on the order of 10 5 kilograms per meter width per year at the site of weather monitoring, 5 kilometers northwest of the Mule Mountains. Aeolian dunes are locally well developed and actively migrating. Their location and activity are determined largely by sediment supply from playa surfaces and ephemeral stream channels, which also control the dunes’ spatial extent and migration potential; stream channels act as both source and sink for aeolian sediment in this environment. Excavations at five sites along a northwest-to-southeast transect reveal that playa deposits formed around 266–226 thousand years ago south of the McCoy Mountains and immediately north of the present location of Interstate 10. The playa material is overlain by late Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fan deposits. To the southeast (south of Interstate 10, but north of the Mule Mountains), we identified rapid accumulation of alluvial sediment around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (23–20 thousand years ago), unconformably overlain by a locally varying assemblage of recent aeolian material or Holocene alluvial fan sediment. We have used stratigraphic characteristics and luminescence ages to calculate accumulation rates for sites in eastern Chuckwalla Valley, and thereby to identify spatial variation in landscape stability over decadal and longer time scales. If future solar-energy development plans are to include natural sand-transport corridors, plans would entail retaining the ability for sand to be transported eastward from the ephemeral stream channels and playas that supply sediment to the dunes, sand sheets, and sand ramps of Chuckwalla Valley, and also to allow for southward transport during episodic strong weather events several times per year. The aeolian sediment-transport corridors are dynamic spatially and temporally, reorganizing on the basis of seasonal changes to wind drift potential. Future landscape stability also will be determined by climate-driven changes to vegetation and thereby to aeolian sediment availability. In a warmer, drier climate, aeolian sediment activity is expected to increase, owing to a decrease in stabilizing vegetation cover and more extreme rain that supplies sediment to ephemeral stream channels and playas from which it is remobilized by wind.

California↗

USGS2023

Moderate flood level scenarios—Synthetic storm-driven flood-inundation maps for coastal communities in 10 New Jersey counties

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) and the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management (NJOEM), created digital flood-inundation maps for approximately 1,430 square miles of the New Jersey coast and tidewaters through 10 coastal counties stretching from Cumberland County through Bergen County, New Jersey. The maps depict extent and depth estimates of coastal flooding corresponding to selected tidal elevations recorded by 25 real-time USGS tide gages located within the study area. The flood-inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Interagency Flood Risk Management (InFRM) Flood Decision Support Toolbox (FDST). Previously published modeled data were utilized from the coupled ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model. Simulated tropical storm events were selected based on parameters including landfall location or closest approach location, maximum wind speed, central pressure, and radii of winds. Two storm events were selected per tide gage providing two “scenarios” and accompanying inundation-map libraries for each gage. Flood-inundation maps reflect between 9 to 30 stages (elevations) at each tide gage that correspond to areal extents and depths for ADCIRC-SWAN storm time steps extracted from modeled hydrographs at the gage locations. Water-surface elevations from ADCIRC-SWAN node points extending through each tide gage station extent were used to interpolate a water surface. Combining these surfaces with a geographic information system (GIS) topobathymetric digital elevation model (TBDEM) delineated the area flooded by coastal waters at each tide gage elevation. The availability of these maps to visualize potential inundation for selected water levels along with real-time water level data available online from USGS tide gages, coastal impact statements, and forecasted tide elevations from the National Weather Service (NWS) will provide emergency management personnel and residents with a link between numeric and text warning information and images of estimated inundation extents in their community. User selected display of inundation allows early response activities to NWS forecasted water level elevations or mitigation planning by selecting targeted water levels and planning critical pre-flood activities such as building elevations, early traffic pattern changes because of neighborhood building inundation levels, improved understanding about when major road access is affected, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts. A subsequent analysis of several community metrics including total structures, structure density, percent of buildings inundated, and roads and bridges affected by flooding was used to evaluate moderate flooding impacts among the mapped station extents. Initial comparisons are presented to show the variability of these characteristics within each mapped station extent then extended to evaluate impacts from moderate flooding on these same areas. The analysis used simulated inundation layers at the moderate flood stage to investigate the magnitude of inundation on building structures and major roads among the mapped station extents. Experimental equations were developed to begin testing if a mathematical equation could help identify communities that were disproportionately impacted at moderate flood stage. The community analysis of impacts to moderate flooding based on these inundation scenario maps should provide community leaders and local and state planning officials with tools to better visualize and understand how flooding begins to disrupt and damage building structures and major roads as a surrogate for direct increased risk to human life and property.

New Jersey↗

USGS2023

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Scenario Retrospective 2006–21

The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project has created four major hazard scenarios—ShakeOut, ARkStorm, Tsunami Scenario, and HayWired—with multidisciplinary teams of scientists, academics, and practitioners. By presenting a clear and highly detailed narrative of potential damage from earthquakes, tsunamis, and winter storms, the scenarios are intended to foster science-based preparedness strategies and disaster risk reduction innovations. This evaluation explores the presence of these scenarios in cultures of preparedness and their role in disaster risk reduction, and reports barriers and enablers to creating and using these scenarios. To do this, the evaluation team developed a mixed-methods study that includes background research for each scenario, qualitative interviews, data collection of media and academic engagement, and examples of SAFRR scenario use in hazard planning. The data collection led to the development of a hazard scenario evaluation tool that combines theories from multiple disciplines to create a best practice set of categories that aid in scenario use and efficacy. The evaluation tool categories—actionable, longitudinal, educational, relevant, and thorough—are organized as a series of checklists that are used to determine how the scenario planners prioritized different aspects of the scenarios to achieve their goals. The tool could also be used to aid scenario planning for other regional disaster risk reduction scenarios of a similar scope. Findings from this evaluation include detailed narratives of scenario use over time, demonstrating that the scenarios have continued to be useful in hazard planning and preparedness across the globe. Examples of use include using the scenarios to advocate for resilient building and development policy, to promote hazard response exercises, and as source data for the development of new hazard models and science. The scenarios themselves are innovative, both in the hazard science created for scenario development and in their branding and public engagement as U.S. Geological Survey products. This SAFFR retrospective is a descriptive evaluation and does not formally address the effects of the scenarios. Nevertheless, this report does include evidence of scenario affects as discovered through qualitative interviews and research, which is presented to explore how the SAFRR scenarios have been received by cultures of preparedness.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States

Introduction The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat. In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers). We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following: Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2025

Bison population dynamics, harvest, and conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Bison bison (bison) were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” for the National Elk Refuge. This small population may benefit from historical winter-feeding operations on the National Elk Refuge because those operations may increase overwinter survival and limit human-bison conflicts, which are the number of individual bison that engage in nuisance, damaging, or otherwise aggressive behaviors with humans and livestock, that may lead to culling and other sources of mortality (for example, vehicle collisions). To inform the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan,” the U.S. Geological Survey used a population model to evaluate five management alternatives for bison and Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) feedground operations that included continuing the elk and bison feeding program, immediately stopping the feeding program, and three other alternatives that would phase out the feeding program after a period of time. The results indicate that the bison population would be expected to decline over the next 20 years under all alternatives that stop feeding bison on the refuge. Further, this decline would lead to an associated reduction in bison harvest opportunities for resident, nonresident, and Tribal hunters. Finally, human-bison conflicts would also be expected to increase under the no feeding alternatives because bison may venture onto private lands in greater numbers if feed is not provisioned during winter months. In combination, these effects suggest that feeding may lead to better outcomes for bison over the next 20 years; however, these effects may be traded off against other downsides of the feedground program, such as increased rates of animal-to-animal contact on feedgrounds that can lead to disease transmission.

Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Bison population dynamics, harvest, and human conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Bison bison were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” for the National Elk Refuge. This small population may benefit from historical winter-feeding operations on the National Elk Refuge because those operations may increase overwinter survival and limit human-bison conflicts, which are the number of individual bison that engage in nuisance, damaging, or otherwise aggressive behaviors with humans and livestock, that may lead to culling and other sources of mortality (for example, vehicle collisions). To inform the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan,” the U.S. Geological Survey used a population model to evaluate five management alternatives for bison and Cervus elaphus canadensis feedground operations that included continuing the elk and bison feeding program, immediately stopping the feeding program, and three other alternatives that would phase out the feeding program after a period of time. The results indicate that the bison population would be expected to decline over the next 20 years under all alternatives that stop feeding bison on the refuge. Further, this decline would lead to an associated reduction in bison harvest opportunities for resident, nonresident, and Tribal hunters. Finally, human-bison conflicts would also be expected to increase under the no feeding alternatives because bison may venture onto private lands in greater numbers if feed is not provisioned during winter months. In combination, these results suggest that feeding may lead to better outcomes for bison over the next 20 years; however, these effects may be traded off against other downsides of the feedground program, such as increased rates of animal-to-animal contact on feedgrounds that can lead to disease transmission.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Preparations for water sampling

The “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) provides guidelines and procedures for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel who collect data used to assess the quality of the Nation’s surface-water and groundwater resources. This chapter, NFM A1, provides an overview of preparations for water sampling, which includes site reconnaissance, project work plans, quality-assurance plans, basic equipment and supplies needed for fieldwork, safety precautions, and planning for data management. It updates and supersedes USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 9, chapter A1, version 2.0, by F.D. Wilde. Before 2017, the NFM chapters were released in the USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations series. Effective in 2018, new and revised NFM chapters are being released in the USGS Techniques and Methods series; this series change does not affect the content and format of the NFM. More information is in the general introduction to the NFM (USGS Techniques and Methods, book 9, chapter A0) at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm9A0 . The authoritative current versions of NFM chapters are available in the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/ . Comments, questions, and suggestions related to the NFM can be addressed to nfm-owq@usgs.gov .

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2000

Design of a shallow ground-water network to monitor agricultural chemicals, Lake Wales Ridge, central Florida

Extensive agricultural land use and dynamic hydraulic connections between the land surface and ground-water resources render many of Florida's aquifers vulnerable to chemical contamination. In these areas, there is a need to monitor shallow ground water for agricultural chemicals to evaluate potential migration of the chemicals to the subsurface and to deeper aquifers, and to assess the effects of agricultural practices on ground-water quality. Historically, efforts to monitor water-table aquifers have been minimal compared with monitoring deeper aquifers used for municipal drinking-water supply. The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services has proposed the establishment of long-term, water-quality networks to monitor shallow ground water in agricultural areas of Florida. These networks will bridge the current information gap between local-scale short-duration field studies, which are required for pesticide licensing, and statewide monitoring of deeper ground-water resources. Laboratory (experimental) and short-term field evaluations of the transport of agricultural chemicals to the subsurface contain some degree of uncertainty due to widespread variations in environmental conditions. The proposed regional-scale shallow ground-water networks will serve as "early warning" networks to avoid contamination of ground-water resources. The objectives of these shallow ground-water networks are to provide information for early detection of pesticides and nitrate in the subsurface, and for evaluating temporal trends in concentrations in relation to changes in land use and agricultural practices. Information on trends is important to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, State agencies, and agricultural managers, and is an integral part of Florida's Pesticide Management Plan, which evaluates the effectiveness of implementing "best management practices" to minimize environmental impacts. Lake Wales Ridge in Polk and Highlands Counties has been identified by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services as a pilot study area for implementing a regional shallow ground-water network. Information gained from designing the Lake Wales Ridge Network will be used to develop plans as similar networks are considered for other areas of Florida. Lake Wales Ridge is heavily utilized for citrus production, but the well-drained, clean sands underlying the region, coupled with a hydraulic connection with deeper karst formations, render the area extremely vulnerable to the transport and migration of agricultural chemicals within the subsurface. The network design for Lake Wales Ridge was developed on the basis of the objectives of monitoring, factors affecting aquifer vulnerability, probability (statistical) sampling theory, and specifications regarding well construction, sampling, and laboratory analysis. The network will provide estimates of regional pesticide and nitrate concentrations in targeted ground water, monitor for trends over time, and will provide baseline, regional-scale information. The areas targeted for sampling were citrus groves located on soils classified as vulnerable to leaching of agricultural chemicals, and ground water in close proximity to the water table. The duration of monitoring is planned to be long term. Chemicals targeted for monitoring include selected nutrients, trace elements, and pesticides used for citrus management. Standardization of field sampling and laboratory methods, and construction of a computerized data-base repository will be important for long-term utility of the data. The proposed network design consists of existing and newly drilled wells. Existing wells were evaluated as candidates for the network based on location and well-construction specifications for water-quality monitoring. Using probability selection techniques, new well locations were selected in areas that lacked adequate existing wells. Implementation of the network will occur in phases. Quarterly sampling of 13 Phase I wells commenced in April 1999. An additional 11 Phase II wells were added to the network in April 2000. Proposed locations have been identified for 8 Phase III wells. Future topics for study include a regional water-quality analysis, a network design evaluation, and consideration of local-scale studies needed to support regional monitoring efforts. An analysis of historical water-quality data for Lake Wales Ridge, including Phase I wells, is needed for the purpose of examining trends, providing a preliminary description of spatial and short-term variability in water quality, and evaluating the proposed network design for cost effectively meeting program objectives. Local-scale, process-oriented studies are needed to provide important information for evaluating regional water-quality data. Coordination between individuals conducting such local-scale studies and those interpreting regional sampling results will be considered as a component of the network design, and will require coordination between multiple agencies.

Florida↗

USGS2002

Simulation of a proposed emergency outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota

From 1993 to 2001, Devils Lake rose more than 25 feet, flooding farmland, roads, and structures around the lake and causing more than $400 million in damages in the Devils Lake Basin. In July 2001, the level of Devils Lake was at 1,448.0 feet above sea level 1 , which was the highest lake level in more than 160 years. The lake could continue to rise to several feet above its natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet above sea level) in future years, causing extensive additional flooding in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin as well. The outlet simulation model described in this report was developed to determine the potential effects of various outlet alternatives on the future lake levels and water quality of Devils Lake. Lake levels of Devils Lake are controlled largely by precipitation on the lake surface, evaporation from the lake surface, and surface inflow. For this study, a monthly water-balance model was developed to compute the change in total volume of Devils Lake, and a regression model was used to estimate monthly water-balance data on the basis of limited recorded data. Estimated coefficients for the regression model indicated fitted precipitation on the lake surface was greater than measured precipitation in most months, fitted evaporation from the lake surface was less than estimated evaporation in most months, and ungaged inflow was about 2 percent of gaged inflow in most months. Dissolved sulfate was considered to be the key water-quality constituent for evaluating the effects of a proposed outlet on downstream water quality. Because large differences in sulfate concentrations existed among the various bays of Devils Lake, monthly water-balance data were used to develop detailed water and sulfate mass-balance models to compute changes in sulfate load for each of six major storage compartments in response to precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and outflow from each compartment. The storage compartments--five for Devils Lake and one for Stump Lake--were connected by bridge openings, culverts, or natural channels that restricted mixing between compartments. A numerical algorithm was developed to calculate inflow and outflow from each compartment. Sulfate loads for the storage compartments first were calculated using the assumptions that no interaction occurred between the bottom sediments and the water column and no wind- or buoyancy-induced mixing occurred between compartments. However, because the fitted sulfate loads did not agree with the estimated sulfate loads, which were obtained from recorded sulfate concentrations, components were added to the sulfate mass-balance model to account for the flux of sulfate between bottom sediments and the lake and for mixing between storage compartments. Mixing between compartments can occur during periods of open water because of wind and during periods of ice cover because of water-density differences between compartments. Sulfate loads calculated using the sulfate mass-balance model with sediment interaction and mixing between compartments closely matched sulfate loads computed from historical concentrations. The water and sulfate mass-balance models were used to calculate potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake and Stump Lake given potential future values of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow. Potential future inputs were generated using a scenario approach and a stochastic approach. In the scenario approach, historical values of precipitation, evaporation, and inflow were repeated in the future for a particular sequence of historical years. In the stochastic approach, a statistical time-series model was developed to randomly generate potential future inputs. The scenario approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of various outlet alternatives, and the stochastic approach was used to evaluate the hydrologic and water-quality effects of the potential outlet alternatives that were selected on the basis of the scenario analysis. Given potential future lake levels and sulfate concentrations generated using either the scenario or stochastic approach and potential future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River receiving waters, daily outlet discharges could be calculated for virtually any outlet alternative. For the scenario approach, future ambient flows and sulfate concentrations for the Sheyenne River were generated using the same sequence of years used for generating water-balance data for Devils Lake. For the stochastic approach, a procedure was developed for generating daily Sheyenne River flows and sulfate concentrations that were "in-phase" with the generated water-balance data for Devils Lake. Simulation results for the scenario approach indicated that neither of the West Bay outlet alternatives provided effective flood-damage reduction without exceeding downstream water-quality constraints. However, both Pelican Lake outlet alternatives provided significant flood-damage reduction with only minor downstream water-quality changes. The most effective alternative for controlling rising lake levels was a Pelican Lake outlet with a 480-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. However, this plan is costly because of the high pump capacity and the requirement of a control structure on Highway 19 to control the level of Pelican Lake. A less costly, though less effective for flood-damage reduction, plan is a Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The plan is less costly because the pump capacity is smaller and because the control structure on Highway 19 is not required. The less costly Pelican Lake alternative with a 450-milligramper- liter downstream sulfate constraint rather than a 250-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint was identified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as the preferred alternative for detailed design and engineering analysis. Simulation results for the stochastic approach indicated that the geologic history of lake-level fluctuations of Devils Lake for the past 2,500 years was consistent with a climatic history that consisted of two climate states--a wet state, similar to conditions during 1980-99, and a normal state, similar to conditions during 1950-78. The transition times between the wet and normal climatic periods occurred randomly. The average duration of the wet climatic periods was 20 years, and the average duration of the normal climatic periods was 120 years. The stochastic approach was used to generate 10,000 independent sequences of lake levels and sulfate concentrations for Devils Lake for water years 2001-50. Each trace began with the same starting conditions, and the duration of the current wet cycle was generated randomly for each trace. Each trace was generated for the baseline (natural) condition and for the Pelican Lake outlet with a 300-cubic-foot-per-second pump capacity and a 450-milligram-per-liter downstream sulfate constraint. The outlet significantly lowered the probabilities of future lake-level increases within the next 50 years and did not substantially increase the probabilities of reaching low lake levels or poor water-quality conditions during the same period.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2002

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Middle Rio Grande Basin Between Cochiti and San Acacia, New Mexico

This report describes a three-dimensional, finite difference, ground-water-flow model of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system within the Middle Rio Grande Basin between Cochiti and San Acacia, New Mexico. The aquifer system is composed of the Santa Fe Group of middle Tertiary to Quaternary age and post-Santa Fe Group valley and basin-fill deposits of Quaternary age. Population increases in the basin since the 1940's have caused dramatic increases in ground-water withdrawals from the aquifer system, resulting in large ground-water-level declines. Because the Rio Grande is hydraulically connected to the aquifer system, these ground-water withdrawals have also decreased flow in the Rio Grande. Concern about water resources in the basin led to the development of a research plan for the basin focused on the hydrologic interaction of ground water and surface water (McAda, D.P., 1996, Plan of study to quantify the hydrologic relation between the Rio Grande and the Santa Fe Group aquifer system near Albuquerque, central New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 96-4006, 58 p.). A multiyear research effort followed, funded and conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies (Bartolino, J.R., and Cole, J.C., 2002, Ground-water resources of the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1222, 132 p.). The modeling work described in this report incorporates the results of much of this work and is the culmination of this multiyear study. The purpose of the model is (1) to integrate the components of the ground-water-flow system, including the hydrologic interaction between the surface-water systems in the basin, to better understand the geohydrology of the basin and (2) to provide a tool to help water managers plan for and administer the use of basin water resources. The aquifer system is represented by nine model layers extending from the water table to the pre-Santa Fe Group basement rocks, as much as 9,000 feet below the NGVD 29. The horizontal grid contains 156 rows and 80 columns, each spaced 3,281 feet (1 kilometer) apart. The model simulates predevelopment steady-state conditions and historical transient conditions from 1900 to March 2000 in 1 steady-state and 52 historical stress periods. Average annual conditions are simulated prior to 1990, and seasonal (winter and irrigation season) conditions are simulated from 1990 to March 2000. The model simulates mountain-front, tributary, and subsurface recharge; canal, irrigation, and septic-field seepage; and ground-water withdrawal as specified-flow boundaries. The model simulates the Rio Grande, riverside drains, Jemez River, Jemez Canyon Reservoir, Cochiti Lake, riparian evapotranspiration, and interior drains as head-dependent flow boundaries. Hydrologic properties representing the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the ground-water-flow model are horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. Variable horizontal anisotropy is applied to the model so that hydraulic conductivity in the north-south direction (along model columns) is greater than hydraulic conductivity in the east-west direction (along model rows) over much of the model. This pattern of horizontal anisotropy was simulated to reflect the generally north-south orientation of faulting over much of the modeled area. With variable horizontal anisotropy, horizontal hydraulic conductivities in the model range from 0.05 to 60 feet per day. Vertical hydraulic conductivity is specified in the model as a horizontal to vertical anisotropy ratio (calculated to be 150:1 in the model) multiplied by the horizontal hydraulic conductivity along rows. Specific storage was estimated to be 2 x 10-6 per foot in the model. Specific yield was estimated to be 0.2 (dimensionless). A ground-water-flow model is a tool that can integrate the complex interactions of hydrologic boundary conditions, aquifer materials

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1974

Hydrologic- and salt-balance investigations utilizing digital models Lower San Luis Rey River area, San Diego County, California

The Joint Administration Committee of the Santa Margarita and San Luis Rey Watershed Planning Agencies was designated as the agency to conduct studies leading to the development of a comprehensive water-quality management plan for the two watersheds. Hydrologic and salt balances for the Pauma, Pala, Bonsall, and Mission ground-water basins in the San Luis Rey River valley needed to develop the plan were difficult to compute because of the lack of data. Hydrologic models constructed and verified for 1958-72 for Pauma and Pala basins and for 1946-72 for Bonsall and Mission basins were beneficial in developing the hydrologic balances. Inflow and outflow to the basins used in model verification were consistent with known physical and hydrologic characteristics of the basins.

California↗

USGS1975

Water and the South Florida environment

Ecological problems are a major concern to Florida as well as to the Nation. National attention was focused on these problems in September 1968, when the Port Authority of Dade County began to con- struct a jetport for supersonic aircraft on a 39-square-mile tract 6 miles north of Everglades National Park and on the east edge of the Big Cypress Swamp. Conservation groups and citizens raised questions as to the effects of a regional jetport and the attendant satellite growth on the water resources and biological communities of the National Park. The Department of the Interior began studies to investigate the situation. One study, Leopold (1969), reported on the unfavorable ecological effects of the attendant satellite growth. Then Secretary of the Interior, Walter J. Hickel, directed the U.S. Geological Survey to study the water resources of the Big Cypress to determine which parts of the Big Cypress contribute the major part of the water necessary to maintain adequate water supplies for Everglades National Park. This was done in a report by Klein and others (1970). At about the same time, the Departments of interior and Transportation, the State of Florida, and the Dade County Port Authority con-curred in assigning to the Secretary of the Interior certain responsibilities for planning, developing, and coordinating an ecological study of south Florida. A primary objective of the ecological study is to provide information that will assist in the formulation of land-use policy consistent with the protection of the environment of Everglades National Park, the adjacent estuaries, and the public water supplies. The part of the investigation describing the surface-water and ground-water resources of south Florida was assigned to the Geological Survey. The quantity and quality of surface water and ground water and their interrelation with estuarine and marine waters are here considered. Also considered are the problems, present or future, related to the hydrologic environment that involve human, animal, and plant life. Changes taking place, apparent trends, and projections for the future are also considered, as well as alternatives for water management. The Geological Survey effort began in January 1971, when aerial photography and selected qualitative hydrologic data were obtained. However, most of the information upon which this report Is based was obtained by the Geological Survey in cooperative programs with several local, State, and Federal agencies since about 1940. The long-term support of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Park Service, U.S. Navy, Florida Department of Natural Resources, Central and Southern Florida Flood Control District, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Collier Counties, Miami and Miami Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Naples and others in the collection of data is gratefully acknowledged. A prolonged drought throughout south Florida from September 1970 to May 1971 accentuated the importance and timeliness of the study. The drought brought about a readvance of sea-water intrusion in many coastal areas, which necessitated restrictions on water use. The effect of drought on the regional water supply, continued population growth and increased water demands, and deterioration of the water quality in many of the canals and waterways of the urban areas accentuated the need for improved water management and land-use planning. As a result of the water crisis, the Governor of Florida called a special conference in September 1971. The conference, attended by foremost scientific and government personnel, proposed creation of an agency that would develop and implement comprehensive land and water-use plans for south Florida that would minimize environmental degradation.

Florida↗

USGS1977

Initial assessment of the ground-water resources in the Monterey Bay region, California

The Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) has been designated as the areawide waste-treatment-management planning agency for the Monterey Bay region under Sec. 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 (Public Law 92-500). Sec. 208 establishes the authority and responsibility of the designated local agency to investigate water-quality problems and plan solutions to them. In developing a waste-management program all aspects of water resources must be evaluated. AMBAG's 208 work plan established an initial problem assessment phase designed to serve as the basis for subsequent 208 program tasks. AMBAG requested that the U.S. Geological Survey make that portion of the initial assessment that was concerned with ground water. This report presents the findings of the assessment.

California↗

USGS1979

Ground-water quality in Bannock, Bear Lake, Caribou, and part of Power counties, southeastern Idaho

This report provides information about the current quality of ground waters in southeastern Idaho and discusses the natural and manmade environmental controls on that quality. This information will be useful in planning and monitoring the development and use of the ground-water resources of southeastern Idaho. The southeastern corner of Idaho, as described in this report, encompasses an area of about 4,000 mil in Bannock, Bear Lake, Caribou, and part of Power Counties. The popu- lation of the area in 1975, based on best estimates by the Idaho Division of Budget, Policy Planning, and Coordination (1976) was 75,200. About 80 percent of the population is in and near the city of Pocatello, which is the second largest population center in the State. Pocatello's economy depends largely on manufacturing and industrial processing, which includes chemicalfertilizer plants. The econ- omy in the rural areas depends largely on agriculture--both dry and irrigated farming are practiced. Mining is important and expected to dominate the economy in the eastcentral part of the area in the future. Natural resources include phosphate ore, which makes up about 35 percent of the U.S. reserves (U.S. Department of Interior and U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1977); ground water, which mostly underlies the several intermontane valleys that dissect the area; and hot springs, which indicate that geothermal energy sources may underlie part of the area. Also, current (1978) speculation is that petroleum reserves may be present in the vicinity of Bear Lake. Development of more sprink- ler-irrigated lands, increases in population, and growth of phosphate mining are expected to place stress on the ground-water resources, both in quality and quantity. The purpose of this report is to present the results of a study whose primary objectives were (1) to provide current waterquality data representative of the water in several different aquifers (water- bearing formations) in the study area, and (2) to relate these data to natural and manmade environmental controls. The wells sampled during this study establish a quasi-network, which could be resampled in the future to document and analyze changes (if any) in ground-water quality. Based on this information, planners and water managers could better understand the causeand-effect relations controlling water quality and could better manage land and water-resource development. The report is designed for ease of reading and presentation. It uses maps, tables, and abbreviated text to describe geology, hydrology, and ground-water quality and how they are interrelated. Some practical ways for improving water quality are discussed for the benefit of individual water users. The field data collected in making the study are contained in the Data Section of this report. The authors gratefully acknowledge the many individual well owners, municipal officials, and private industries that provided well information and allowed access to their properties and collection of water samples. Without their help, this work could not have been done. Water samples were collected at 103 well sites. Waterlevel measurements were made at 98 of these sites during July, August, and September of 1976. This study was made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources. A similar study is being made (1978) in north Idaho. Other studies are planned, specifically to obtain ground-water-quality data in areas where land and water-resource development is expected or accelerating.

Idaho↗

USGS1993

Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Red Clay Creek Basin, Chester County, Pennsylvania, and New Castle County, Delaware

The 54-square-mile Red Clay Creek Basin, located in the lower Delaware River Basin, is underlain primarily by metamorphic rocks that range from Precambrian to Lower Paleozoic in age. Ground water flows through secondary openings in fractured crystalline rock and through primary openings below the water table in the overlying saprolite. Secondary porosity and permeability vary with hydrogeologic unit, topographic setting, and depth. Thirty-nine percent of the water-bearing zones are encountered within 100 feet of the land surface, and 79 percent are within 200 feet. The fractured crystalline rock and overlying saprolite act as a single aquifer under unconfined conditions. The water table is a subdued replica of the land surface. Local ground-water flow systems predominate in the basin, and natural ground-water discharge is to streams, comprising 62 to 71 percent of streamflow. Water budgets for 1988-90 for the 45-square-mile effective drainage area above the Woodale, Del., streamflow-measurement station show that annual precipitation ranged from 43.59 to 59.14 inches and averaged 49.81 inches, annual streamflow ranged from 15.35 to 26.33 inches and averaged 20.24 inches, and annual evapotranspiration ranged from 27.87 to 30.43 inches and averaged 28.98 inches. The crystalline rocks of the Red Clay Creek Basin were simulated two-dimensionally as a single aquifer under unconfined conditions. The model was calibrated for short-term steady-state conditions on November 2, 1990. Recharge was 8.32 inches per year. Values of aquifer hydraulic conductivity in hillside topographic settings ranged from 0.07 to 2.60 feet per day. Values of streambed hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.08 to 26.0 feet per day. Prior to simulations where ground-water development was increased, the calibrated steady-state model was modified to approximate long-term average conditions in the basin. Base flow of 11.98 inches per year and a ground-water evapotranspiration rate of 2.17 inches per year were simulated by the model. Different combinations of ground-water supply and wastewater-disposal plans were simulated to assess their effects on the stream-aquifer system. Six of the simulations represent an increase in population of 14,283 and water use of 1.07 million gallons per day. One simulation represents an increase in population of 28,566 and water use of 2.14 million gallons per day. Reduction of average base flow is greatest for development plans with wastewater removed from the basin through sewers and is proportional to the amount of water removed from the basin. The development plan that had the least effect on water levels and base flow included on-lot wells and on-lot septic systems. Five organochlorine insecticides--lindane, DDT, dieldrin, heptachlor, and methoxychlor--were detected in ground water. Four organophosphorus insecticides--malathion, parathion, diazinon, and phorate--were detected in ground water. Four volatile organic compounds--benzene, toluene, tetrachloroethylene, and trichloroethylene--were detected in ground water. Phenol was detected at concentrations up to 8 micrograms per liter in water from 50 percent of 14 wells sampled. The concentration of dissolved nitrate in water from 18 percent of wells sampled exceeded 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen; concentration of nitrate were as high as 19 milligrams per liter. PCB was detected in the bottom material of West Branch Red Clay Creek at Kennet Square at concentrations up to 5,600 micrograms per kilogram.

Delaware, Pennsylvania↗

USGS1995

Geohydrology and simulation of ground-water flow near Los Alamos, north-central New Mexico

An existing model was modified in recognition of new geohydrologic interpretations and adjusted to simulate hydrographs in well fields in the Los Alamos area. Hydraulic-head drawdowns at the Buckman well field resulting from two projected ground-water-withdrawal alternatives were estimated with the modified model. The Chaquehui formation (informal usage) is the main new feature of recent hydrologic interpretations for the Los Alamos area. The Chaquehui occupies a 'channel' that was eroded or faulted into the Tesuque Formation, and the Chaquehui is more permeable than the Tesuque. The Chaquehui is a major producing zone in the Pajarito Mesa well field and to a lesser extent in the Guaje well field. Model modification included splitting the four layers of the McAda-Wasiolek model (McAda, D.P., and Wasiolek, Maryann, 1988, Simulation of the regional geohydrology of the Tesuque aquifer system near Santa Fe, New Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Water- Resources Investigations Report 87-4056, 71 p.) into eight layers to better simulate vertical ground-water movement. Other model modifications were limited as much as possible to the area of interest near Los Alamos and consisted mainly of adjusting hydraulic-conductivity values representing the Tesuque Formation, Chaquehui formation (informal usage), and Puye Formation, and adjusting simulated recharge along the Pajarito Fault Zone west of Los Alamos. Adjustments were based mainly on simulation of fluctuations in measured hydraulic heads near Los Alamos. Two possible alternative plans for replacing Guaje well field production were suggested by Los Alamos National Laboratory. In the first plan (Guaje alternative), the Guaje field would be renewed with four new wells replacing the existing production wells in the Guaje field. In the second plan (Pajarito-Otowi alternative), the Guaje well field would be retired and its former production would be made up by additional withdrawals from the Pajarito Mesa and Otowi well fields. A projection for each of these alternatives was made through 2012 using the new eight- layer model. In the Guaje field, projected hydraulic heads at the end of 2012 were as much as 50 feet lower with the Guaje alternative; in the Pajarito Mesa field, hydraulic heads were as much as 12 feet higher with the Guaje alternative. At the western end of the Los Alamos well field, projected hydraulic heads were about 20 feet higher with the Guaje alternative; at the eastern end of the Los Alamos field, the difference between alternatives was much less. At the Buckman field, projected hydraulic heads were about 2 feet higher with the Guaje alternative because the Buckman field is closer to the Pajarito Mesa field than to the Guaje field. Ways of improving the understanding of the flow system include developing a more accurate representation of the structure and extent of the Tesuque Formation, Chaquehui formation, and Puye Formation of the Santa Fe Group and obtaining more detailed geologic and hydrologic data for the Chaquehui and Puye. Data that describe water chemistry, hydraulic head, and degree of saturation would be valuable for determining the location and quantity of recharge on the Pajarito Plateau, especially along the west side of the Plateau and in canyon bottoms. Chloride concentrations in soil at the top of the Bandelier Tuff could be used to verify the concept that evapotranspiration accounts for nearly all precipitation over a large area of the plateau.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗