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Computer input and output files associated with ground-water-flow simulations of the Albuquerque Basin, central New Mexico, 1901-95, with projections to 2020; (supplement three to U.S. Geological Survey Water-resources investigations report 94-4251)

This report presents the computer input files required to run the three-dimensional ground-water-flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, central New Mexico, documented in Kernodle and others (Kernodle, J.M., McAda, D.P., and Thorn, C.R., 1995, Simulation of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, central New Mexico, 1901-1994, with projections to 2020: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 94-4251, 114 p.) and revised by Kernodle (Kernodle, J.M., 1998, Simulation of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, 1901-95, with projections to 2020 (supplement two to U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 94-4251): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-209, 54 p.). Output files resulting from the computer simulations are included for reference.

Open-File Report↗

Profile measurements and data from the 2011 Optics, Acoustics, and Stress In Situ (OASIS) project at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory

This report documents data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Coastal Model Applications and Field Measurements project under the auspices of the U.S. Navy Office of Naval Research Optics, Acoustics, and Stress In Situ (OASIS) Project. The objective of the measurements was to relate optical and acoustic properties of suspended particles to changes in particle size, concentration, and vertical distribution in the bottom boundary layer near the seafloor caused by wave- and current-induced stresses. This information on the physics of particle resuspension and aggregation and light penetration and water clarity will help improve models of sediment transport, benthic primary productivity, and underwater visibility. There is well-established technology for acoustic profiling, but optical profiles are more difficult to obtain because of the rapid attenuation of light in water. A specially modified tripod with a moving arm was designed to solve this problem by moving instruments vertically in the bottom boundary layer, between the bottom and about 2 meters above the seafloor. The profiling arm was designed, built, and tested during spring and summer 2011 by a team of USGS scientists, engineers, and technicians. To accommodate power requirements and the large data files recorded by some of the optical instruments, the tripod was connected via underwater cable to the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory, operated by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). This afforded real-time Internet communication with the embedded computers aboard the tripod. Instruments were mounted on the profiling arm, and additional instruments were mounted elsewhere on the tripod and nearby on the seafloor. The tripod and a small mooring for a profiling current meter were deployed on September 17, 2011, at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory 12-meter-deep underwater node about 2 kilometers south of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. Divers assisted in the deployment and cleaned the instrument surfaces on the tripod approximately once per week until the tripod and current meter were recovered on October 23, 2011. There was a range of wave and current conditions during the 36-day deployment, including the distant passage of Hurricane Ophelia, several moderate wave events, and a significant local gale that generated wave heights greater than 4 meters at the 12-meter site and knocked over the tripod 3 days before it was recovered. All but one of the instruments functioned well and provided complete datasets. The details of these data and the location of files containing the best basic version of the data are described in this report.

Massachusetts↗

Fate and transport of metam spill in Sacramento River

A mass balance model was developed and applied to the Sacramento River in northern California during the July 1991 Sacramento River metam-sodium spill. The transport and reactions of metam-sodium, a soil fumigant, and the volatile and toxic methyl isothiocyanate (MITC) were simulated during the two-and-a-half days of movement along a 68-km stretch of river. Results from modeling were compared with field data for MITC, which is the only product measured downriver after the spill. Agreement between the simulated and measured values of MITC concentrations were found at Doney Creek (65.9 km downstream). Results illuminated the complexities and unique characteristics associated with the multiple kinetic processes of the chemical plume in the river. In particular, the photolysis of metam-sodium followed zero-order kinetics for high concentrations and first-order kinetics for low concentrations, a unique phenomenon consistent with the finding reported in a laboratory study. Concentrations of metam-sodium for transition from zeroto first-order, obtained by calibration and model sensitivity analyses, were in the same range as those in the reported laboratory results.

Journal of Environmental Engineering↗

MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model: User guide to the LMT6 package, the linkage with MT3DMS for multi-species mass transport modeling

MODFLOW-2000, the newest version of MODFLOW, is a computer program that numerically solves the three-dimensional ground-water flow equation for a porous medium using a finite-difference method. MT3DMS, the successor to MT3D, is a computer program for modeling multi-species solute transport in three-dimensional ground-water systems using multiple solution techniques, including the finite-difference method, the method of characteristics (MOC), and the total-variation-diminishing (TVD) method. This report documents a new version of the Link-MT3DMS Package, which enables MODFLOW-2000 to produce the information needed by MT3DMS, and also discusses new visualization software for MT3DMS. Unlike the Link-MT3D Packages that coordinated previous versions of MODFLOW and MT3D, the new Link-MT3DMS Package requires an input file that, among other things, provides enhanced support for additional MODFLOW sink/source packages and allows list-directed (free) format for the flow model produced flow-transport link file. The report contains four parts: (a) documentation of the Link-MT3DMS Package Version 6 for MODFLOW-2000; (b) discussion of several issues related to simulation setup and input data preparation for running MT3DMS with MODFLOW-2000; (c) description of two test example problems, with comparison to results obtained using another MODFLOW-based transport program; and (d) overview of post-simulation visualization and animation using the U.S. Geological Survey?s Model Viewer.

Open-File Report↗

What common-garden experiments tell us about climate responses in plants

Common garden experiments are indoor or outdoor plantings of species or populations collected from multiple distinct geographic locations, grown together under shared conditions. These experiments examine a range of questions for theory and application using a variety of methods for analysis. The eight papers of this special feature comprise a cross section of contemporary approaches, summarized and synthesized here by what they tell us about the relationships between climate-related trait spectra and fitness optima. Four of the eight papers are based on field experiments in prairie, desert, Mediterranean and boreal biomes. Representative of many common garden experiments, these experiments reveal consistent evidence of traits varying with population climate provenance, but evidence of a tradeoff between growth and tolerance traits or of consistent fitness optimization at home is scant, in contrast to trait theory. Two synthesis papers highlight dominant patterns of trait divergence, including for an exotic invasive species. One theoretical paper warned that unknown kinship relationships between populations can result in the misidentification of adaptive trait divergence. A third synthesis paper formulated novel and ambitious goals for common-garden studies through including measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. The featured papers discuss multiple avenues for improving common garden studies. Genomic analysis, together with the quantification of kinship relationships, will continue to reveal the influence of environmental drivers on gene selection. Measuring a more complete set of fitness traits, especially for traits related to regeneration, will permit the development of projection models to explicitly link trait spectra, climate patterns and fitness consequences. More standardized data reporting will additionally improve abilities to synthesize findings across experiments. Testing population performance in competition with other species will produce more robust fitness comparisons between genotypes, especially for slower-growing genotypes in higher-resource environments. Adding gardens in and beyond climatic edge locations will furthermore strengthen the understanding of population failure and species exclusion. Finally, there is unrealized potential in adding ecosystem-level observations to common-garden studies that will enhance integrative analysis across scales of biological organization and scientific domains. Synthesis . With novel, creative designs, data integration and synthesis, common garden experiments will continue to advance the understanding of trait ensembles interacting with climate across scales of biological organization, provide pivotal data for global change models and guide ecological applications such as restoration of habitats for rare and climate sensitive species.

Journal of Ecology↗

Effect of delayed reporting of band recoveries on survival estimates

Brownie et al. (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv., Resource Publ. 131, 1978) presented 14 models based on an array of explicit assumptions for the study of survival in avian populations. These methods are replacing the life table methods previously used to estimate survival rates (e.g., Burnham and Anderson, J. Wildl. Manage. , 43: 356-366, 1979). The new methods allow survival or recovery rates, or both, to be constant, time-specific, or time- and age-specific. In studies to estimate survival rates for birds the data are often from recoveries of birds shot or found dead during the hunting season and reported to the Bird Banding Laboratory by sportsmen, conservation agency employees, or the general public. This note examines the bias in estimating annual survival due to a proportion of the recoveries being incorrectly reported a year late. Specifically, a few recoveries each year of, for example, adult male American Widgeon ( Anas americana ) banded in California are reported as being recovered in year i + 1 when in fact they were actually recovered the previous year i. Delayed reporting might typically be caused by people finding a band in their health clothing in the fall of the year and, being embarrassed about their failure to report the band when it was taken, report it a year late not mentioning the actual year of recovery. Heuristically, delayed reporting should bias estimated annual survival rates upwards because it appears from the data that the birds corresponding to the "delayed" recoveries actually lived an additional year.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Flood-inundation maps for the Cuyahoga River in and near Independence, Ohio, 2024

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9.9-mile reach of the Cuyahoga River in and near Independence, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District Board of Trustees. Water-surface profiles were computed for the stream reach by using a one-dimensional steady-state step-backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current (2024) stage-streamflow relation (rating curve 43.0) for the USGS streamgage 04208000, Cuyahoga River at Independence, Ohio. The resulting hydraulic model was then used to compute 13 water-surface profiles for water levels (flood stages) ranging from 14.00 to 26.00 feet. The flood stages range from “action stage” to above “major flood stage” as reported by the National Weather Service. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used in combination with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data to map the inundated areas associated with each flood profile. The flood-inundation maps and the supporting hydraulic model produced by this study can be used by emergency managers and local officials to assess flood mitigation strategies and to define flood hazard areas to protect life and property, to coordinate flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and to aid postflood recovery efforts.

Ohio↗

Investigating impacts of oil and gas development on greater sage-grouse

The sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystem is one of the largest ecosystems in western North America providing habitat for species found nowhere else. Sagebrush habitats have experienced dramatic declines since the 1950s, mostly due to anthropogenic disturbances. The greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) is a sagebrush-obligate species that has experienced population declines over the last several decades, which are attributed to a variety of disturbances including the more recent threat of oil and gas development. We developed a hierarchical, Bayesian state-space model to investigate the impacts of 2 measures of oil and gas development, and environmental and habitat conditions, on sage-grouse populations in Wyoming, USA using male lek counts from 1984 to 2008. Lek attendance of male sage-grouse declined by approximately 2.5%/year and was negatively related to oil and gas well density. We found little support for the influence of sagebrush cover and precipitation on changes in lek counts. Our results support those of other studies reporting negative impacts of oil and gas development on sage-grouse populations and our modeling approach allowed us to make inference to a longer time scale and larger spatial extent than in previous studies. In addition to sage-grouse, development may also negatively affect other sagebrush-obligate species, and active management of sagebrush habitats may be necessary to maintain some species.

Wyoming↗

Revised geologic cross sections of parts of the Colorado, White River, and Death Valley regional groundwater flow systems, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona

This report presents revisions to parts of seven of the ten cross sections originally published in U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2006-1040. The revisions were necessary to correct errors in some of the original cross sections, and to show new parts of several sections that were extended and (or) appended to the original section profiles. Revisions were made to cross sections C-C', D-D', E-E', F-F', G-G', I-I', and J-J', and the parts of the sections revised or extended are highlighted below the sections on plate 1 by red brackets and the word "revised," or "extended." Sections not listed above, as well as the interpretive text and figures, are generally unchanged from the original report. Cross section C-C' includes revisions in the east Mormon Mountains in the east part of the section; D-D' includes revisions in the Mormon Mesa area in the east part of the section; E-E' includes revisions in the Muddy Mountains in the east part of the section; F-F' includes revisions from the Muddy Mountains to the south Virgin Mountains in the east part of the section; and J-J' includes some revisions from the east Mormon Mountains to the Virgin Mountains. The east end of G-G' was extended about 16 km from the Black Mountains to the southern Virgin Mountains, and the northern end of I-I' was extended about 45 km from the Muddy Mountains to the Mormon Mountains, and revisions were made in the Muddy Mountains part of the original section. This report contains 10 interpretive cross sections and an integrated text describing the geology of parts of the Colorado, White River, and Death Valley regional groundwater flow systems in Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. The primary purpose of the report is to provide geologic framework data for input into a numerical groundwater model. Therefore, the stratigraphic and structural summaries are written in a hydrogeologic context. The oldest rocks (basement) are Early Proterozoic metamorphic and intrusive crystalline rocks that are considered confining units because of their low permeability. Late Proterozoic to Lower Cambrian clastic units overlie the crystalline rocks and are also considered confining units within the regional flow systems. Above the clastic units are Middle Cambrian to Lower Permian carbonate rocks that are the primary aquifers in the flow systems. The Middle Cambrian to Lower Permian carbonate rocks are overlain by a sequence of mainly clastic rocks of late Paleozoic to Mesozoic age that are mostly considered confining units, but they may be permeable where faulted. Tertiary volcanic and plutonic rocks are exposed in the northern and southern parts of the study area. In the Clover and Delamar Mountains, these rocks are highly deformed by north- and northwest-striking normal and strike-slip faults that are probably important conduits in transmitting groundwater from the basins in the northern Colorado and White River flow systems to basins in the southern part of the flow systems. The youngest rocks in the region are Tertiary to Quaternary basin-fill deposits. These rocks consist of middle to late Tertiary sediments consisting of limestone, conglomerate, sandstone, tuff, and gypsum, and younger Quaternary surficial units consisting of alluvium, colluvium, playa deposits, and eolian deposits. Basin-fill deposits are both aquifers and aquitards. The rocks in the study area were complexly deformed by episodes of Mesozoic compression and Cenozoic extensional tectonism. Some Cretaceous thrust faults and folds of the Sevier orogenic belt form duplex zones and define areas of maximum thickness for the Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Cenozoic faults are important because they are the primary structures that control groundwater flow in the regional flow systems.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

UCODE_2005 and six other computer codes for universal sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty evaluation constructed using the JUPITER API

This report documents the computer codes UCODE_2005 and six post-processors. Together the codes can be used with existing process models to perform sensitivity analysis, data needs assessment, calibration, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Any process model or set of models can be used; the only requirements are that models have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output files, that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant digits, that all required models can be run from a single batch file or script, and that simulated values are continuous functions of the parameter values. Process models can include pre-processors and post-processors as well as one or more models related to the processes of interest (physical, chemical, and so on), making UCODE_2005 extremely powerful. An estimated parameter can be a quantity that appears in the input files of the process model(s), or a quantity used in an equation that produces a value that appears in the input files. In the latter situation, the equation is user-defined. UCODE_2005 can compare observations and simulated equivalents. The simulated equivalents can be any simulated value written in the process-model output files or can be calculated from simulated values with user-defined equations. The quantities can be model results, or dependent variables. For example, for ground-water models they can be heads, flows, concentrations, and so on. Prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be considered. Statistics are calculated to quantify the comparison of observations and simulated equivalents, including a weighted least-squares objective function. In addition, UCODE_2005 can be used fruitfully in model calibration through its sensitivity analysis capabilities and its ability to estimate parameter values that result in the best possible fit to the observations. Parameters are estimated using nonlinear regression: a weighted least-squares objective function is minimized with respect to the parameter values using a modified Gauss-Newton method or a double-dogleg technique. Sensitivities needed for the method can be read from files produced by process models that can calculate sensitivities, such as MODFLOW-2000, or can be calculated by UCODE_2005 using a more general, but less accurate, forward- or central-difference perturbation technique. Problems resulting from inaccurate sensitivities and solutions related to the perturbation techniques are discussed in the report. Statistics are calculated and printed for use in (1) diagnosing inadequate data and identifying parameters that probably cannot be estimated; (2) evaluating estimated parameter values; and (3) evaluating how well the model represents the simulated processes. Results from UCODE_2005 and codes RESIDUAL_ANALYSIS and RESIDUAL_ANALYSIS_ADV can be used to evaluate how accurately the model represents the processes it simulates. Results from LINEAR_UNCERTAINTY can be used to quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values if the model is sufficiently linear. Results from MODEL_LINEARITY and MODEL_LINEARITY_ADV can be used to evaluate model linearity and, thereby, the accuracy of the LINEAR_UNCERTAINTY results. UCODE_2005 can also be used to calculate nonlinear confidence and predictions intervals, which quantify the uncertainty of model simulated values when the model is not linear. CORFAC_PLUS can be used to produce factors that allow intervals to account for model intrinsic nonlinearity and small-scale variations in system characteristics that are not explicitly accounted for in the model or the observation weighting. The six post-processing programs are independent of UCODE_2005 and can use the results of other programs that produce the required data-exchange files. UCODE_2005 and the other six codes are intended for use on any computer operating system. The programs consist of algorithms programmed in Fortran 90/95, which efficiently performs numerical calculations. The model runs required to obtain perturbation sensitivities can be performed using multiple processors. The programs are constructed in a modular fashion using JUPITER API conventions and modules. For example, the data-exchange files and input blocks are JUPITER API conventions and many of those used by UCODE_2005 are read or written by JUPITER API modules. UCODE-2005 includes capabilities likely to be required by many applications (programs) constructed using the JUPITER API, and can be used as a starting point for such programs.

Techniques and Methods↗

Hydrogeological framework, numerical simulation of groundwater flow, and effects of projected water use and drought for the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma

This report describes a study of the hydrology, hydrogeological framework, numerical groundwater-flow models, and results of simulations of the effects of water use and drought for the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma. The purpose of the study was to provide analyses, including estimating equal-proportionate-share (EPS) groundwater-pumping rates and the effects of projected water use and droughts, pertinent to water management of the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer for the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer consists of unconsolidated sand, gravel, silt, and clay in varying proportions that underlies the Beaver and North Canadian River Valleys for approximately 175 miles (mi) from the Oklahoma Panhandle to the western edge of Oklahoma City in central Oklahoma. The aquifer as delineated for this study varies from 4 to 12 mi wide and is as thick as 308 feet (ft) in the northwest where the aquifer includes the Ogallala Formation. There are two distinct but in most areas hydraulically connected alluvial units that compose the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer: a Quaternary-age topographically higher terrace deposit and a topographically lower, younger alluvium along the active river channel that includes active and Quaternary-age alluvium. The Beaver River composes the headwaters of the North Canadian River, which begins at the confluence of the Beaver River and Wolf Creek. The aquifer is divided for water management into two geographic areas: Reach I upstream from Canton Dam and Reach II downstream from Canton Dam. Reach I covers an area of approximately 874 square miles (mi 2 ), and Reach II covers an area of approximately 371 mi 2 . The Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer crosses several climatic zones, from semiarid in the west to continental subhumid in the east. Mean annual precipitation varies from 23.5 inches (in.) in the western part of this aquifer to 35.7 in. in the east. Surface-water demands were met through numerous temporary and permanent surface-water diversions from the Beaver and North Canadian Rivers during the period of study. During the study period, seven diversions removed a mean annual 2,000 acre-feet (acre-ft) of water from Reach I. There were 14 diversions from Reach II with a mean annual permitted volume of approximately 81,000 acre-ft, including diversion into the Lake Hefner Canal for the Oklahoma City public water supply. During the period of this study, 17 temporary surface-water diversion permits were active in Reach I, with total permitted volumes of 2,000 acre-ft, and 41 diversions were active in Reach II, with total permitted volumes of 38,000 acre-ft. The total water use for each temporary permit was assumed to be taken over the 3-month period allotted to temporary withdrawal permits. The groundwater-use analysis full period of record, 1967–2011, was divided into two sub-intervals because of varying water use, 1970–80 and 1981–2011. Groundwater use in Reach I and Reach II was substantially greater from 1970 to 1980 compared to the rest of the period, and the sub-period 1981–2011 was used because this period includes recent population growth and modern irrigation methods. The total mean annual groundwater use in Reach I was 15,309 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) during 1967–2011; 20,724 acre-ft/yr during 1970–80, and 13,739 acre-ft/yr during 1981–2011. Total mean annual groundwater use in Reach II was similar but slightly less than in Reach I, with 14,098 acre-ft/yr during 1967–2011; 19,963 acre-ft/yr during 1970–80; and 12,285 acre-ft/yr during 1981–2011. Irrigation composed 72 percent of groundwater use in Reach I and 48 percent of groundwater use in Reach II during the 1967–2011 period. Public water supply was a much smaller proportion of total groundwater use in Reach I (15 percent) than in Reach II (39 percent). The proportion of groundwater use for power was 10 percent in Reach I and 5.2 percent in Reach II. All other water-use categories in Reach I only composed 2.2 percent of groundwater use in Reach I. In Reach II, industrial, mining, and commercial categories combined accounted for 4.4 percent of groundwater use; recreation, fish, and wildlife groundwater use accounted for 2.3 percent; and nonirrigated agriculture accounted for 1.5 percent of groundwater use. Permian-age bedrock underlies the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer. In the east, the Dog Creek Shale, the Duncan Sandstone, and the Blaine and Chickasha Formations, none of which are notable sources of groundwater in the study area, underlie the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer. In the northwestern part of Reach I, bedrock is composed of the Rush Springs and Marlow Formations, which are productive aquifers in some areas. The Cloud Chief Formation is not a source of groundwater. One hydrogeological unit was delineated in the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, composed of the terrace deposits and alluvium, with limited flow between this unit and bedrock units. Groundwater in this aquifer generally flows from northwest to southeast and across the aquifer toward the Beaver and North Canadian Rivers. Groundwater recharge from precipitation was estimated for the entire Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and then itemized for both reaches by using a soil-water-balance (SWB) model. At two locations in Reach I, a water-table fluctuation method was used to estimate local recharge. Total mean annual groundwater recharge from the soil-water-balance method was estimated to be approximately 136,400 acre-ft in Reach I and 82,400 acre-ft in Reach II; the mean annual recharge for both reaches combined was approximately 218,800 acre-ft. Two sites in Reach I located at observation wells with continuous water-level measurements and nearby streamflow-gaging stations with precipitation gages were used to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. The Woodward site was located at observation well OW-4 near the Woodward, Okla. (07237500), streamflow-gaging station. Total precipitation and recharge for the Woodward and Seiling sites were calculated for the water year 2013. The Woodward site had a total of 14.18 in. of precipitation and 6.3 in. of recharge was calculated, equaling 44 percent of precipitation. The mean percentage of precipitation that was estimated to become recharge in the SWB model for the period 1980–2011 at that location was 9.2 percent, although adjacent SWB-model cells were as high as 20 percent of precipitation. The Seiling site had a total of 26.84 in. of precipitation during the water year 2013, and a total of 6.9 in. of recharge was estimated, equaling 25.9 percent of precipitation. At the Seiling site, the mean percentage of precipitation that became recharge in the SWB model for the period 1980–2011 was 23.0 percent. The principal inflow to the Beaver-North Canadian River alluvial aquifer was estimated to be surface recharge from precipitation, and plant evapotranspiration was estimated to be the greatest discharge, followed by stream and lake base flow, groundwater pumping, and flow to seeps and springs along the eastern margin of the aquifer. Reach I also included inflow from the High Plains aquifer as lateral inflow of groundwater, though this flow was estimated to be a very minor component of the total water budget. Most of the Beaver and North Canadian Rivers were determined to be gaining streamflow from groundwater, but several reaches in Reach I upstream from Wolf Creek were determined to be losing streamflow through infiltration to the aquifer. Aquifer hydrogeologic characteristics were estimated from borehole lithologic logs, well-construction information, and published aquifer tests and during numerical model calibration. The maximum saturated aquifer thickness in Reach I was estimated to be 308 ft, and the mean thickness was estimated to be 36 ft. The maximum saturated thickness in Reach II was estimated to be 86 ft, and the mean thickness was estimated to be 29 ft. Mean hydraulic conductivity of Reach I was estimated to be 70 feet per day (ft/d) with a range of 7–279 ft/d. Mean hydraulic conductivity in Reach II was estimated to be 92 ft/d with a range of 4–279 ft/d. Both reach models were calibrated manually by using trial-and-error adjustment of recharge, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and conductance of boundary conditions. The Reach I model used 28 head observations during the steady-state period of 1980 and 487 head observations during the transient period of 1981–2011. The root-mean-square error of head residuals (observed minus simulated head) was 3.86 ft, and 83 percent of head residuals were between -5 and 5 ft. The Reach II model was calibrated to 75 steady-state head observations and 134 head observations during the transient period. The root-mean-square error of head residuals for that reach was 3.58 ft, and similar to Reach I, 85 percent of residuals were between -5 and 5 ft. Several analyses were performed by using the numeric groundwater-flow models as predictive tools, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for both reaches. The EPS is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as an annual per-acre groundwater-pumping rate that will reduce saturated thickness in half of the aquifer to 5 ft or less over a period of 20 years; additional estimates were made for periods of 40 and 50 years. Other analyses included using models to estimate the effects of groundwater pumping and a prolonged drought on groundwater in storage and streamflow and lake storage of water. The EPS pumping rate was found to be approximately 0.57 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 0.73 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For a 40-year period, the annual EPS pumping rate was determined to be 0.54 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 0.61 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. For a 50-year period, the EPS pumping rate was determined to be 0.53 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 0.61 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Groundwater pumping at the 2011 rate for 50 years resulted in a 3.6-percent decrease in the amount of water in groundwater storage in Reach I and a decrease of 2.5 percent in the amount of groundwater in storage in Reach II. A cumulative 32-percent increase in pumping greater than the 2011 rate over a period of 50 years caused a decrease in groundwater storage of 4.0 percent in Reach I and 3.3 percent in Reach II. A hypothetical severe drought was simulated by using aquifer recharge flow rates during the drought year of 2011 for a period of 10 years. All other flows including evapotranspiration and groundwater pumping were set at estimated 2011 rates. The hypothetical drought caused a decrease in water in aquifer storage by about 7 percent in Reach I and 7 percent in Reach II. Another analysis of the effects of hypothetical drought estimated the effects of drought on streamflow and lake storage. The hypothetical drought was simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent for a selected 10-year period (1994–2004) during the 1980–2011 simulation. In Reach I, the amounts of water stored in Canton Lake and streamflow at the Seiling, Okla., streamflow-gaging station were analyzed. Streamflow at the Seiling station decreased by a mean of 75 percent and was still diminished by 10 percent after 2011. In Reach II, the effect of drought on the streamflow at the Yukon, Okla., streamflow-gaging station was examined. The greatest mean streamflow decrease was approximately 60 percent during the simulated drought, and after 2011, the mean decrease in streamflow was still about 5 percent. Canton Lake storage decreased by as much as 83 percent during the simulated drought and did not recover by 2011.

Oklahoma↗

Theory of aquifer tests

The development of water supplies from wells was placed on a rational basis with Darcy's development of the law governing the movement of fluids through sands and with Dupuit's application of that law to the problem of radial flow toward a pumped well. As field experience increased, confidence in the applicability of quantitative methods was gained and interest in developing solutions for more complex hydrologic problems was stimulated. An important milestone was Theis' development in 1935 of a solution for the nonsteady flow of ground water, which enabled hydrologists for the first time to predict future changes in ground-water levels resulting from pumping or recharging of wells. In the quarter century since, quantitative ground-water hydrology has been enlarging so rapidly as to discourage the preparation of comprehensive textbooks. This report surveys developments in fluid mechanics that apply to groundwater hydrology. It emphasizes concepts and principles, and the delineation of limits of applicability of mathematical models for analysis of flow systems in the field. It stresses the importance of the geologic variable and its role in governing the flow regimen. The report discusses the origin, occurrence, and motion of underground water in relation to the development of terminology and analytic expressions for selected flow systems. It describes the underlying assumptions necessary for mathematical treatment of these flow systems, with particular reference to the way in which the assumptions limit the validity of the treatment.

Water Supply Paper↗

Borehole geophysical investigation of a formerly used defense site, Machiasport, Maine, 2003-2006

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, collected borehole geophysical logs in 18 boreholes and interpreted the data along with logs from 19 additional boreholes as part of an ongoing, collaborative investigation at three environmental restoration sites in Machiasport, Maine. These sites, located on hilltops overlooking the seacoast, formerly were used for military defense. At each of the sites, chlorinated solvents, used as part of defense-site operations, have contaminated the fractured-rock aquifer. Borehole geophysical techniques and hydraulic methods were used to characterize bedrock lithology, fractures, and hydraulic properties. In addition, each geophysical method was evaluated for effectiveness for site characterization and for potential application for further aquifer characterization and (or) evaluation of remediation efforts. Results of borehole geophysical logging indicate the subsurface is highly fractured, metavolcanic, intrusive, metasedimentary bedrock. Selected geophysical logs were cross-plotted to assess correlations between rock properties. These plots included combinations of gamma, acoustic reflectivity, electromagnetic induction conductivity, normal resistivity, and single-point resistance. The combined use of acoustic televiewer (ATV) imaging and natural gamma logs proved to be effective for delineating rock types. Each of the rock units in the study area could be mapped in the boreholes, on the basis of the gamma and ATV reflectivity signatures. The gamma and mean ATV reflectivity data were used along with the other geophysical logs for an integrated interpretation, yielding a determination of quartz monzonite, rhyolite, metasedimentary units, or diabase/gabbro rock types. The interpretation of rock types on the basis of the geophysical logs compared well to drilling logs and geologic mapping. These results may be helpful for refining the geologic framework at depth. A stereoplot of all fractures intersecting the boreholes indicates numerous fractures, a high proportion of steeply dipping fractures, and considerable variation in fracture orientation. Low-dip-angle fractures associated with unloading and exfoliation are also present, especially at a depth of less than 100 feet below the top of casing. These sub-horizontal fractures help to connect the steeply dipping fractures, making this a highly connected fracture network. The high variability in the fracture orientations also increases the connectivity of the fracture network. A preliminary comparison of all fracture data from all the boreholes suggests fracturing decreases with depth. Because all the boreholes were not drilled to the same depth, however, there is a clear sampling bias. Hence, the deepest boreholes are analyzed separately for fracture density. For the deepest boreholes in the study, the intensity of fracturing does not decline significantly with depth. It is possible the fractures observed in these boreholes become progressively tighter or closed with depth, but this is difficult to verify with the borehole methods used in this investigation. The fact that there are more sealed fractures at depth (observed in optical televiewer logs in some of the boreholes) may indicate less opening of the sealed fractures, less water moving through the rock, and less weathering of the fracture infilling minerals. Although the fracture orientation remained fairly constant with depth, differences in the fracture patterns for the three restoration sites indicate the orientation of fractures varies across the study area. The fractures in boreholes on Miller Mountain predominantly strike northwest-southeast, and to a lesser degree they strike northeast. The fractures on or near the summit of Howard Mountain strike predominantly east-west and dip north and south, and the fractures near the Transmitter Site strike northeast-southwest and dip northwest and southeast. The fracture populations for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain show more variation than at the other two sites. This variation may be related to the proximity of the fault, which is northeast of the summit of Howard Mountain. In a side-by-side comparison of stereoplots from selected boreholes, there was no clear correspondence between fracture orientation and proximity to the fault. There is, however, a difference in the total populations of fractures for the boreholes on or near the summit of Howard Mountain and the boreholes near the Transmitter Site. Further to the southwest and further away from the fault, the fractures at the Transmitter Site predominantly strike northeast-southwest and northwest-southeast.Heat-pulse flowmeter (HPFM) logging was used to identify transmissive fractures and to estimate the hydraulic properties along the boreholes. Ambient downflow was measured in 13 boreholes and ambient upflow was measured in 9 boreholes. In nine other bedrock boreholes, the HPFM did not detect measurable vertical flow. The observed direction of vertical flow in the boreholes generally was consistent with the conceptual flow model of downward movement in recharge locations and upward flow in discharge locations or at breaks in the slope of land surface. Under low-rate pumping or injection rates [0.25 to 1 gallon per minute (gal/min)], one to three inflow zones were identified in each borehole. Two limitations of HPFM methods are (1) the HPFM can only identify zones within 1.5 to 2 orders of magnitude of the most transmissive zone in each borehole, and (2) the HPFM cannot detect flow rates less than 0.010 + or - 0.005 gal/min, which corresponds to a transmissivity of about 1 foot squared per day (ft2/d). Consequently, the HPFM is considered an effective tool for identifying the most transmissive fractures in a borehole, down to its detection level. Transmissivities below that cut-off must be measured with another method, such as packer testing or fluid-replacement logging. Where sufficient water-level and flowmeter data were available, HPFM results were numerically modeled. For each borehole model, the fracture location and measured flow rates were specified, and the head and transmissivity of each fracture zone were adjusted until a model fit was achieved with the interpreted ambient and stressed flow profiles. The transmissivities calculated by this method are similar to the results of an open-hole slug test; with the added information from the flowmeter, however, the head and transmissivity of discrete zones also can be determined. The discrete-interval transmissivities ranged from 0.16 to 330 ft2/d. The flowmeter-derived open-hole transmissivity, which is the combined total of each of the transmissive zones, ranged from 1 to 511 ft2/d. The whole-well open-hole transmissivity values determined with HPFM methods were compared to the results of open-hole hydraulic tests. Despite the fact that the flowmeter-derived transmissivities consistently were lower than the estimates derived from open-hole hydraulic tests alone, the correlation was very strong (with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.9866), indicating the HPFM method provides a reasonable estimate of transmissivities for the most transmissive fractures in the borehole. Geologic framework, fracture characterization, and estimates of hydraulic properties were interpreted together to characterize the fracture network. The data and interpretation presented in this report should provide information useful for site investigators as the conceptual site groundwater flow model is refined. Collectively, the results and the conceptual site model are important for evaluating remediation options and planning or implementing the design of a well field and borehole completions that will be adequate for monitoring flow, remediation efforts, groundwater levels, and (or) water quality. Similar kinds of borehole geophysical logging (specifically the borehole imaging, gamma, fluid logs, and HPFM) should be conducted in any newly installed boreholes and integrated with interpretations of any nearby boreholes. If boreholes are installed close to existing or other new boreholes, cross-hole flowmeter surveys may be appropriate and may help characterize the aquifer properties and connections between the boreholes.

Maine↗

Ecosystem services valuation to support decisionmaking on public lands—A case study of the San Pedro River watershed, Arizona

This report details the findings of the Bureau of Land Management–U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Services Valuation Pilot Study. This project evaluated alternative methods and tools that quantify and value ecosystem services, and it assessed the tools’ readiness for use in the Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking process. We tested these tools on the San Pedro River watershed in northern Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. The study area includes the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (managed by the Bureau of Land Management), which has been a focal point for conservation activities and scientific research in recent decades. We applied past site-specific primary valuation studies, value transfer, the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) models to value locally important ecosystem services for the San Pedro River watershed—water, carbon, biodiversity, and cultural values. We tested these approaches on a series of scenarios to evaluate ecosystem service changes and the ability of the tools to accommodate scenarios. A suite of additional tools were either at too early a stage of development to run, were proprietary, or were place-specific tools inappropriate for application to the San Pedro River watershed. We described the strengths and weaknesses of these additional ecosystem service tools against a series of evaluative criteria related to their usefulness for Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking. Using these tools, we quantified gains or losses of ecosystem services under three categories of scenarios: urban growth, mesquite management, and water augmentation. These results quantify tradeoffs and could be useful for decisionmaking within Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Results are accompanied by a relatively high level of uncertainty associated with model outputs, valuation methods, and discount rates applied. Further guidance on representing uncertainty and applying uncertain results in decisionmaking would benefit both tool developers and those offices in using ecosystem services to compare management tradeoffs. Decisionmakers and Bureau of Land Management managers at the State-, district-, and field-office level would also benefit from continuing model improvements, training, and guidance on tool use that can be provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Department of the Interior. Tradeoffs were identified in the level of effort needed to parameterize and run tools and the amount and quality of information they provide to the decision process. We found the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, Ecosystem Services Review, and United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre Ecosystem Services Toolkit to be immediately feasible for application by the Bureau of Land Management, given proper guidance on their use. It is also feasible for the Bureau of Land Management to use the InVEST model, but in early 2012 the process of parameterizing the model required resources and expertise that are unlikely to be available in most Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Application of past primary valuation is feasible, but developing new primary-valuation studies is too time consuming for regular application. Value transfer approaches (aside from the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit) are best applied carefully on the basis of guidelines described in this report, to reduce transfer error. The ARIES model can provide useful information in regions modeled in the past (Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington), but it lacks some features that will improve its usability, such as a generalized model that could be applied anywhere in the United States. Eleven other tools described in this report could become useful as the tools more fully develop, in high-profile cases for which additional resources are available for tool application or in case-study regions where place-specific models have already been developed. To improve the value of these tools in decisionmaking, we suggest scientific needs that agencies such as U.S. Geological Survey can help meet—for instance, development and support of data archives. Such archives could greatly reduce resource needs and improve the reliability and consistency of results. Given the rapid state of evolution in the field, periodic follow-up studies on ecosystem services tools would help to ensure that the Bureau of Land Management and other public land management agencies are kept up to date on new tools and features that bring ecosystem services closer to readiness for use in regular decisionmaking.

Arizona;Sonora↗

Hydraulic and mechanical properties affecting ground-water flow and aquifer-system compaction, San Joaquin Valley, California

This report summarizes hydraulic and mechanical properties affecting ground-water flow and aquifer-system compaction in the San Joaquin Valley, a broad alluviated intermontane structural trough that constitutes the southern two-thirds of the Central Valley of California. These values will be used to constrain a coupled ground-water flow and aquifer-system compaction model of the western San Joaquin Valley called WESTSIM. A main objective of the WESTSIM model is to evaluate potential future land subsidence that might occur under conditions in which deliveries of imported surface water for agricultural use are reduced and ground-water pumping is increased. Storage values generally are components of the total aquifer-system storage and include inelastic and elastic skeletal storage values of the aquifers and the aquitards that primarily govern the potential amount of land subsidence. Vertical hydraulic conductivity values generally are for discrete thicknesses of sediments, usually aquitards, that primarily govern the rate of land subsidence. The data were compiled from published sources and include results of aquifer tests, stress-strain analyses of borehole extensometer observations, laboratory consolidation tests, and calibrated models of aquifer-system compaction.

Open-File Report↗

Simulated groundwater flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Rosebud Indian Reservation area, South Dakota – Revisions with data through water year 2008 and simulations of potential future scenarios

The Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are important water resources in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area and are used extensively for irrigation, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Drought or increased withdrawals from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area have the potential to affect water levels in these aquifers. This report documents revisions and recalibration of a previously published three-dimensional, numerical groundwater-flow model for this area. Data for a 30-year period (water years 1979 through 2008) were used in steady-state and transient numerical simulations of groundwater flow. In the revised model, revisions include (1) extension of the transient calibration period by 10 years, (2) the use of inverse modeling for steady-state calibration, (3) model calibration to base flow for an additional four surface-water drainage basins, (4) improved estimation of transient aquifer recharge, (5) improved delineation of vegetation types, and (6) reduced cell size near large capacity water-supply wells. In addition, potential future scenarios were simulated to assess the potential effects of drought and increased groundwater withdrawals. The model comprised two layers: the upper layer represented the Ogallala aquifer and the lower layer represented the Arikaree aquifer. The model’s grid had 168 rows and 202 columns, most of which were 1,640 feet (500 meters) wide, with narrower rows and columns near large water-supply wells. Recharge to the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs from precipitation on the outcrop areas. The average recharge rates used for the steady-state simulation were 2.91 and 1.45 inches per year for the Ogallala aquifer and Arikaree aquifer, respectively, for a total rate of 255.4 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Discharge from the aquifers occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams as base flow and spring flow, and well withdrawals. Discharge rates for the steady-state simulation were 171.3 ft 3 /s for evapotranspiration, 74.4 ft 3 /s for net outflow to streams and springs, and 11.6 ft 3 /s for well withdrawals. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity used for the numerical model ranged from 0.2 to 84.4 feet per day (ft/d) in the Ogallala aquifer and from 0.1 to 4.3 ft/d in the Arikaree aquifer. A uniform vertical hydraulic conductivity value of 4.2x10 -4 ft/d was estimated for the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was estimated for five zones in the Arikaree aquifer and ranged from 8.8x10 -5 to 3.7 ft/d. Average rates of recharge, maximum evapotranspiration, and well withdrawals were included in the steady-state simulation, whereas the time-varying rates were included in the transient simulation. Inverse modeling techniques were used for steady-state model calibration. These methods were designed to estimate parameter values that are, statistically, the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed hydraulic heads and base-flow discharges. For the steady-state simulation, the root mean square error for simulated hydraulic heads for all 383 wells was 27.3 feet. Simulated hydraulic heads were within ±50 feet of observed values for 93 percent of the wells. The potentiometric surfaces of the two aquifers calculated by the steady-state simulation established initial conditions for the transient simulation. For the transient simulation, the difference between the simulated and observed means for hydrographs was within ±40 feet for 98 percent of 44 observation wells. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated steady-state model to changes in model parameters including horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, evapotranspiration, recharge, and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. To simulate a potential future drought scenario, a synthetic recharge record was created, the mean of which was equal to 64 percent of the average estimated recharge rate for the 30-year calibration period. This synthetic recharge record was used to simulate the last 20 years of the calibration period under drought conditions. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the drought scenario at the end of the simulation period were as much as 39 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 30-year calibration period for the last 20 years of the calibration period. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the scenario of increased pumping at the end of the simulation period were as much as 13 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. This numerical model is suitable as a tool to help understand the flow system, to help confirm that previous estimates of aquifer properties were reasonable, and to estimate aquifer properties in areas without data. The model also is useful to help assess the effects of drought and increases in pumping by simulations of these scenarios, the results of which are not precise but may be considered when making water management decisions.

South Dakota↗

Update and recalibration of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

The Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) was developed through an interagency effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation to provide a tool for analyzing the hydrologic system response to the historical evolution of water use and potential changes in water supplies and demands in the Hatch Valley (also known as Rincon Valley in the study area) and Mesilla Basin, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico. Reclamation operates the Rio Grande Project (RGP) to store and deliver surface water for irrigation and municipal use within the study area and in the El Paso Valley south of the El Paso Narrows. Biases in the RGTIHM’s simulation of streamflow and aquifer storage depletion and the availability of new estimates of historical agricultural consumptive use in the study area initiated an update and recalibration of the RGTIHM. In addition to the new estimates of historical agricultural consumptive use, updates were made to more accurately represent the natural system and included adjustments to the initial groundwater levels; streamflow rating tables; Rio Grande, canal, and drain streambed elevations; tributary streambed elevations; surface-water inflows and diversions; RGP surface-water deliveries and canal waste; on-farm efficiency; the routing of surface-water runoff within the MODFLOW Farm Process; and general head boundaries used to simulate interbasin groundwater flow. Model settings, including the assignment of hydraulic conductivity and storage properties to model layers and the MODFLOW solver package, were adjusted to improve numerical stability, and the model was recalibrated to better simulate the natural system. The updated and recalibrated RGTIHM demonstrates a robust ability to simulate the spatially and temporally variable measurements, estimates, or reports of hydraulic head, surface-water flows, agricultural pumping, RGP surface-water deliveries and canal waste, and decadal aquifer storage changes, with improvements over the previous version of the model.

Chihuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗

The effect of temperature on experimental and natural chemical weathering rates of granitoid rocks

The effects of climatic temperature variations (5-35??C) on chemical weathering are investigated both experimentally using flow-through columns containing fresh and weathered granitoid rocks and for natural granitoid weathering in watersheds based on annual solute discharge. Although experimental Na and Si effluent concentrations are significantly higher in the fresh relative to the weathered granitoids, the proportional increases in concentration with increasing temperature are similar. Si and Na exhibit comparable average apparent activation energies (E(a)) of 56 and 61 kJ/mol, respectively, which are similar to those reported for experimental feldspar dissolution measured over larger temperature ranges. A coupled temperature-precipitation model, using an expanded database for solute discharge fluxes from a global distribution of 86 granitoid watersheds, produces an apparent activation energy for Si (51 kJ/mol), which is also comparable to those derived from the experimental study. This correlation reinforces evidence that temperature does significantly impact natural silicate weathering rates. Effluent K concentrations in the column study are elevated with respect to other cations compared to watershed discharge due to the rapid oxidation/dissolution of biotite. K concentrations are less sensitive to temperature, resulting in a lower average E(a) value (27 kJ/mol) indicative of K loss from lower energy interlayer sites in biotite. At lower temperatures, initial cation release from biotite is significantly faster than cation release from plagioclase. This agrees with reported higher K/Na ratios in cold glacial watersheds relative to warmer temperate environments. Increased release of less radiogenic Sr from plagioclase relative to biotite at increasing temperature produces corresponding decreases in 87Sr/86Sr ratios in the column effluents. A simple mixing calculation using effluent K/Na ratios, Sr concentrations and 87Sr/86Sr ratios for biotite and plagioclase approximates stoichiometric cation ratios from biotite/plagioclase dissolution at warmer temperatures (35??C), but progressively overestimates the relative proportion of biotite with decreasing temperature. Ca, Mg, and Sr concentrations closely correlate, exhibit no consistent trends with temperature, and are controlled by trace amounts of calcite or exchange within weathered biotite. The inability of the watershed model to differentiate a climate signal for such species correlates with the lower temperature dependence observed in the experimental studies.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗