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USGS2025

Near real-time indicators of burn severity in the western U.S. from active fire tracking

Background Timely information on wildfire burn severity is critical to assess and mitigate potential post-fire impacts on soils, vegetation, and hillslope stability. Tracking individual fire spread and intensity using satellite active fire data provides a pathway to near real-time (NRT) information. Here, we generated a large database ( n = 2177) of wildfire events in the western United States (U.S.) between 2012 and 2021 using active fire detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite and the Fire Events Data Suite (FEDS) algorithm to track large fire growth every 12 h. We integrated fire tracking data with final fire perimeters and burn severity data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) program to evaluate the relationship between burn severity and fire behavior metrics derived from the fire tracking approach, including the rate of fire spread and average fire radiative power (FRP) of fire detections for each 12-h growth increment. Results When stratified by vegetation type, FRP and rate of spread metrics were positively correlated with classified burn severity for each 12-h growth increment, highlighting the potential to rapidly identify areas of high and low severity burning. In forests, integrated measures of FRP over the fire lifetime captured persistent flaming and smoldering that compensated for initial differences between AM (01:30) and PM (13:30) fire detections. Predictive modeling of these relationships based on multiple fire behavior indicators and vegetation type from the LANDFIRE program yielded an accuracy of 78% for the separation of unburned/low and moderate/high burn severity classes. Conclusions These results demonstrate the ability to capture within-fire differences in burn severity using NRT indicators from fire tracking to assist with emergency management and disaster preparedness for post-fire hazards, such as landslides, debris flows, or changes in stream flow and water quality. As VIIRS data are available within minutes of each satellite overpass in the U.S., rapid estimates of burn severity based on fire tracking can be made days or weeks before a large wildfire is fully contained.

western United States↗

USGS2011

Helicopter magnetic and electromagnetic surveys at Mounts Adams, Baker and Rainier, Washington: implications for debris flow hazards and volcano hydrology

High‐resolution helicopter magnetic and electromagnetic (HEM) data flown over the rugged, ice‐covered Mt. Adams, Mt. Baker and Mt. Rainier volcanoes (Washington), reveal the distribution of alteration, water and ice thickness essential to evaluating volcanic landslide hazards. These data, combined with geological mapping and rock property measurements, indicate the presence of appreciable thicknesses (>500 m) of water‐saturated hydrothermally altered rock west of the modern summit of Mount Rainier in the Sunset Amphitheater region and in the central core of Mount Adams north of the summit. Alteration at Mount Baker is restricted to thinner (<300 m) zones beneath Sherman Crater and the Dorr Fumarole Fields. The EM data identified water‐saturated rocks from the surface to the detection limit (100–200 m) in discreet zones at Mt. Rainier and Mt Adams and over the entire summit region at Mt. Baker. The best estimates for ice thickness are obtained over relatively low resistivity (<800 ohm‐m) ground for the main ice cap on Mt. Adams and over most of the summit of Mt. Baker. The modeled distribution of alteration, pore fluids and partial ice volumes on the volcanoes helps identify likely sources for future alteration‐related debris flows, including the Sunset Amphitheater region at Mt. Rainier, steep cliffs at the western edge of the central altered zone at Mount Adams and eastern flanks of Mt. Baker.

Washington↗

USGS2005

Multiple sources for late-Holocene tsunamis at Discovery Bay, Washington State, USA

Nine muddy sand beds interrupt a 2500-yr-old sequence of peat deposits beneath a tidal marsh at the head of Discovery Bay on the south shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington. An inferred tsunami origin for the sand beds is assessed by means of six criteria. Although all the sand beds contain marine diatoms and almost all the beds display internal stratification, the areal extent of the oldest beds is too limited to confirm their origin as tsunami deposits. The ages of four beds overlap with known late-Holocene tsunamis generated by plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Diatom assemblages in peat deposits bracketing these four beds do not indicate concurrent change in elevation at Discovery Bay. Diatoms in the peat bracketing a tsunami bed deposited about 1000 cal. yr BP indicate a few decimeters of submergence, suggesting deformation on a nearby upper-plate fault. Other beds may mark tsunamis caused by more distant upper-plate earthquakes or local submarine landslides triggered by earthquake shaking. Tsunamis from both subduction zone and upper-plate sources pose a significant hazard to shoreline areas in this region.

Holocene↗

USGS1990

Perspectives on the international decade for natural disaster reduction

Disaster preparedness and disaster mitigation are the goals of nations throughout the world during the 1990's. The United States will lead this cooperative effort and marshall its national resources to reduce the disaster potential of earthquakes, floods, windstorms, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and wildfires. These natural hazards cause annual losses of approximately $10 billion in the United States and many times that throughout the world. The type and severity of the hazard varies from State-to-State in the United States. All States are at risk from flooding from sources such as precipitation, snowmelt, thunderstorms, and, along the coast, the storm surges generated in hurricanes. No State is free from the potential impacts of ground shaking induced by earthquakes. The goal of the Decade is to keep such occurrences in the future from being disasters.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2005

Geotechnical aspects of the January 2003 Tecoma'n, Mexico, earthquake

Ground failure was the most prominent geotechnical engineering feature of the 21 January 2003 M w 7.6 Tecoma´n earthquake. Ground failure impacted structures, industrial facilities, roads, water supply canals, and other critical infrastructure in the state of Colima and in parts of the neighboring states of Jalisco and Michoaca´n. Landslides and soil liquefaction were the most common type of ground failure, followed by seismic compression of unsaturated materials. Reinforced earth structures generally performed well during the earthquake, though some structures experienced permanent lateral deformations up to 10 cm. Different ground improvement techniques had been used to enhance the liquefaction resistance of several sites in the region, all of which performed well and exhibited no signs of damage or significant ground deformation. Earth dams in the region experienced some degree of permanent deformation but remained fully functional after the earthquake.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2012

Mechanics of debris flows and rock avalanches: Chapter 43

Debris flows are geophysical phenomena intermediate in character between rock avalanches and flash floods. They commonly originate as water-laden landslides on steep slopes and transform into liquefied masses of fragmented rock, muddy water, and entrained organic matter that disgorge from canyons onto valley floors. Typically including 50%–70% solid grains by volume, attaining speeds >10 m/s, and ranging in size up to ∼109 m 3 , debris flows can denude mountainsides, inundate floodplains, and devastate people and property (Figure 43.1). Notable recent debris-flow disasters resulted in more than 20,000 fatalities in Armero, Colombia, in 1985 and in Vargas state, Venezuela, in 1999.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

The Montaguto earth flow: nine years of observation and analysis

This paper summarizes the methods, results, and interpretation of analyses carried out between 2006 and 2015 at the Montaguto earth flow in southern Italy. We conducted a multi-temporal analysis of earth-flow activity to reconstruct the morphological and structural evolution of the flow. Data from field mapping were combined with a geometric reconstruction of the basal slip surface in order to investigate relations between basal-slip surface geometry and deformation styles of earth-flow material. Moreover, we reconstructed the long-term pattern of earth-flow movement using both historical observations and modeled hydrologic and climatic data. Hydrologic and climatic data were used to develop a Landslide Hydrological Climatological (LHC) indicator model.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1992

Impact origin of the Avak Structure, Arctic Alaska, and genesis of the Barrow gas fields

Geophysical and subsurface geologic data suggest that the Avak structure, which underlies the Arctic Coastal Plain 12 km southeast of Barrow, Alaska, is a hypervelocity meteorite or comet impact structure. The structure is a roughly circular area of uplifted, chaotically deformed Upper Triassic to Lower Cretaceous sedimentary rocks 8 km in diameter that is bounded by a ring of anastomosing, inwardly dipping, listric normal faults 12 km in diameter. A zone of gently outward-dipping sedimentary country rocks forms a discontinuous ring of "rim anticlines" within the peripheral ring of normal faults. Beyond these anticlines, the sedimentary rocks are almost flat-lying. Basement consists of strongly deformed Ordovician and Silurian argillite. Density and acoustic impedance con rasts between the argillite and the overlying strata produce gravity and seismic-reflection signatures that define a ring of anticlines around the disturbed zone and a structural high surrounded by an annular structural low at its center. In the adjacent Barrow gas fields, the tops of the informally named Neocomian "pebble shale" unit and the gas-producing Lower Jurassic Barrow sand (local usage) lie at average subsea depths of 488 m and 670 m, respectively. In the Avak 1 well, drilled on the central high, the pebble shale and the Barrow sand lie near the surface, documenting more than 500 m of relative uplift at the high. The cores in this well have steep dips (30-90 degrees), mixed breccia with Franklinian argillite clasts 10 and 90 m above basement, quartz grains with shock mosaicism and multiple sets of shock lamellae, oriented concussion fractures in sand-size quartz grains, and shatter cones resembling those found in the peripheral zones of well-documented impact structures. In addition, above-background levels o fractured quartz grains in Barrow sand were found as far as 19 km beyond the rim of the Avak structure. Data concerning the age of the Avak structure are not definitive. If submarine landslide deposits in the upper part of the Aptian and Albian Torok Formation, in the subsurface 200 km to the east, were triggered by the Avak event, then the Avak meteorite struck a submerged marine shelf about 100 + or - 5 Ma. However, the impact features found at Avak (shatter cones, concussion fractures, shock lamellae and shock mosaicism in quartz grains, and widespread cataclasis) characterize the distal zones of meteorite impact structures. Fused rocks, plastic deformation, and shock-metamorphic minerals found in more proximal zones of impact structures are apparently missing. These observations, and the lack of Avak ejecta in cuttings and cores from the Torok Formation and Nanushuk Group (Albian to middle Cenomanian) in surrounding test wells, indicate that the impact event postdated these beds. In this case, the Avak meteorite struck a Late Cretaceous or Tertiary marine shelf or coastal plain between the Cenomanian (ca. 95 Ma), and deposition of the basal beds of the overlying late Pliocene and Quaternary Gubik Formation (ca. 3 Ma).

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Risk Map

The Global Earthquake Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalized by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2 due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalized metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Earthquake Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible limitations in the model, regions portrayed with low risk may experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, which will be updated when new datasets and models become available. Updated versions of the hazard, exposure, and average annual losses will be released on a regular basis. Additional metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem.

Report↗

USGS2011

Population-scale movement of coastal cutthroat trout in a naturally isolated stream network

To identify population‐scale patterns of movement, coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii tagged and marked (35 radio‐tagged, 749 passive integrated transponder [PIT]‐tagged, and 3,025 fin‐clipped) were monitored from June 1999 to August 2000. The study watershed, located in western Oregon, was above a natural barrier to upstream movement. Emigration out of the watershed was estimated with a rotating fish trap. Approximately 70% of recaptured coastal cutthroat trout with PIT tags and 86% of those with radio tags moved predominantly at the channel‐unit scale (2–95 m); fewer tagged fish moved at the reach scale (66–734 m) and segment scale (229–3,479 m). In general, movement was greatest in April as spawning peaked and lowest in October, when discharge was at its lowest. Only 63 (<1% of tagged and marked fish) coastal cutthroat trout were captured in the fish trap. Trap efficiency was about 33%, and the expanded estimate of emigrants between February and June was 173 fish. These results suggest that unit‐scale movement is common throughout the year and that reach‐ and segment‐scale movements are important during the winter and spring. Although movement in headwater streams is most common at the channel‐unit scale, restoration of individual channel units of stream may not benefit the population at the watershed scale unless these activities are undertaken in the context of the greater whole. Individual coastal cutthroat trout move great distances, even within the small watersheds in the Oregon Coast Range, and although these movements may be infrequent, they may contribute substantially to recolonization after stochastic extirpation events (e.g., landslides and debris flows). Management strategies that focus on maintaining and restoring connectivity in a watershed represent an important step toward protecting the evolutionary capacity of stream salmonids.

Oregon↗

USGS2001

Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude distribution similar to that including characteristic earthquakes. The island chain northwest of Hawaii Island is seismically and volcanically much less active. We model its seismic hazard with a combination of a linearly decaying ramp fit to the cataloged seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity with a smoothing half-width of 10 km. We use a combination of up to four attenuation relations for each map because for either PGA or SA, there is no single relation that represents ground motion for all distance and magnitude ranges. Great slumps and landslides visible on the ocean floor correspond to catastrophes with effective energy magnitudes ME above 8.0. A crude estimate of their frequency suggests that the probabilistic earthquake hazard is at least an order of magnitude higher for flank earthquakes than that from submarine slumps.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Frequency-dependent seismic attenuation in the eastern United States as observed from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence

Ground shaking due to earthquakes in the eastern United States (EUS) is felt at significantly greater distances than in the western United States (WUS) and for some earthquakes it has been shown to display a strong preferential direction. Shaking intensity variation can be due to propagation path effects, source directivity, and/or site amplification. In this paper, we use S and Lg waves recorded from the 2011 central Virginia earthquake and aftershock sequence, in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, to quantify attenuation as frequency‐dependent Q ( f ). In support of observations based on shaking intensity, we observe high Q values in the EUS relative to previous studies in the WUS with especially efficient propagation along the structural trend of the Appalachian mountains. Our analysis of Q ( f ) quantifies the path effects of the northeast‐trending felt distribution previously inferred from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It” data, historic intensity data, and the asymmetrical distribution of rockfalls and landslides.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2018

Holocene fault reactivation in the eastern Cascades, Washington

Significant uncertainty remains concerning how and where crustal shortening occurs throughout the eastern Cascade Range in Washington State. Using light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery, we identified an ∼ 5 ‐ km ‐ long "> ∼5‐km‐long lineament in Swakane canyon near Wenatchee, roughly coincident with a strand of the Entiat fault. Topographic profiles across the lineament reveal a southwest‐side‐up break in slope, with an average of 2–3 m of vertical separation of the hillslope surface. We consider a range of possible origins for this feature, including differential erosion across a fault‐line scarp, slope failure (sackung or landslide), and surface deformation across an active fault strand. Based on trenching, radiocarbon and luminescence dating, and ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) across the lineament, we conclude that warped saprolite observed in the shallow subsurface is most consistent with southwest‐side‐up folding caused by blind reverse faulting at depth. Following this reasoning, dating of overlying colluvial deposits suggests that at least one Holocene earthquake occurred on this strand of the southern Entiat fault, with an approximate vertical separation of ≥ 1    m "> m ≥1 m . GPR reveals up to 4 m of cumulative vertical separation of the saprolite, suggesting a history of multiple earthquakes on the structure. Taken in context with other potential fault‐related lineaments along the Entiat fault, our interpretation of Holocene earthquakes in Swakane canyon could suggest reactivation of longer sections of the Entiat fault, as well as of other bedrock faults in the eastern Cascades. Although active erosion and slow strain rates lead to a subdued geomorphic expression of recent deformation, we conclude that the reactivated Entiat fault represents a seismogenic structure that should be considered in regional seismic hazard analyses. The difficulty of recognizing low‐slip‐rate structures in forested and mountainous terrain underscores the importance of additional lidar surveys and geological and geophysical studies for fully understanding seismic hazard in regions with infrequent but potentially large earthquakes.

Washington↗

USGS2020

Post-glacial Mw 7.0-7.5 earthquakes on the North Olympic fault zone, Washington

Holocene crustal faulting in the northern Olympic Peninsula of Washington State manifests in a zone of west‐northwest‐striking crustal faults herein named the North Olympic fault zone, which extends for ∼ 80    km "> ∼ 80 km ∼80 km along strike and includes the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault to the east and the Sadie Creek fault and newly discovered scarps to the west. This study focuses on the Sadie Creek fault, which extends for > 14    km "> > 14 km >14 km west‐northwest from Lake Crescent. Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery reveals the trace of the Sadie Creek fault and offset postglacial landforms showing a history of Holocene surface‐rupturing earthquakes dominated by dextral displacement along a steeply dipping fault zone. Paleoseismic trenches at two sites on the Sadie Creek fault reveal till and outwash overlain by progressively buried forest and wetland soils developed on scarp‐derived colluvial wedges. Trench exposures of complex faulting with subhorizontal slickenlines indicate dextral displacement with lesser dip slip. Correlation of broadly constrained time intervals for earthquakes at the Sadie Creek sites and those to the east along the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault is consistent with rupture of much of the length of the North Olympic fault zone three to four times: at about 11, 7, 3, and 1 ka, with a shorter rupture at about 8.5 ka. Dated ruptures from trenches only partially coincide with coseismic landslides and megaturbidites in Lake Crescent, indicating that some earthquakes did not trigger megaturbidites, and some turbidites were unrelated to local fault rupture. Landform mapping suggests single‐event dextral displacement of 4 ± 1    m "> 4 ± 1 m 4±1 m on the Sadie Creek fault. Inferred maximum rupture length and single‐event slip imply earthquake magnitudes M w "> M w Mw 7.0–7.5. Dextral slip rates of 1.3 – 2.3    mm / yr "> 1.3 – 2.3 mm / yr 1.3–2.3 mm/yr and the ∼ 11 , 000    yr "> ∼ 11 , 000 yr ∼11,000 yr slip history suggest that the North Olympic fault zone is a prominent contributor to permanent strain in the northern Cascadia fore‐arc.

Washington↗

USGS2021

Late Holocene slip rate of the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, California

The geologic slip rate on the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault is poorly constrained, despite its importance for understanding earthquake hazard, apparent discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates along this fault section, and long‐term fault interactions in southern California. Here, we use surficial geologic mapping, excavations, and radiocarbon and luminescence dating to quantify the displacements and ages of late Holocene landforms offset by the fault at three sites. At the Ranch Center site, the slip rate is determined using the base of a fan marking incision and deflection of an ephemeral channel. At the adjacent Key Slide site, the margin of a landslide deposited on indigenous fire hearths provides a minimum rate. At the X‐12 site, the slip rate is determined from a channel that incised into a broad fan surface, and is deflected and beheaded by the fault. We use maximum–minimum bounds on both the displacement and age of each offset feature to calculate slip rate for each site independently. Overlap of the three independent rate ranges yields a rate of 33–39 mm/yr over the last 3 ka, under the assumption that the sites share a common history, given their proximity. Considered in sequence, site‐level epistemic uncertainties in the data permit but do not require a rate increase since ∼1200 cal B.P. Modest rate changes can be explained by aleatory variability in earthquake timing and magnitude; larger changes could suggest a shared regional variation with the Garlock and other faults. The new late Holocene slip rates are consistent with geodetic model estimates that include a viscoelastic crust and earthquake cycle effects. The geologic slip rates also provide average slip over dozens of earthquake cycles—a key constraint for long‐term earthquake rupture forecasts.

California↗

USGS2022

High-resolution marine seismic imaging of the Seattle fault zone: Near surface insights into fault zone geometry, Quaternary deformation, and long-term evolution

The Seattle fault zone (SFZ) is a north‐directed thrust fault system that underlies the greater Seattle metropolitan area. Evidence of past land level changes, landslides, liquefaction, and a local tsunami indicate that this 70‐km‐long fault system can host up to M 7–7.5 earthquakes. Both the geometry and earthquake recurrence of the SFZ are debated and surveys of the shallow subsurface have not yet been incorporated into deeper crustal‐scale structural interpretations, especially where the SFZ cuts across marine portions of the Puget Lowland. Here we use a new high‐resolution marine seismic reflection dataset to image fault‐related deformation in Quaternary sediments and Tertiary bedrock throughout Puget Sound and Lake Washington. We use this perspective of shallow geology as a link between existing crustal‐scale geophysical insights into fault geometry at depth and paleoseismological observations of faulting at the surface and propose a refined structural model for the SFZ. We interpret that our new seismic reflection data in the Rich Passage area of Puget Sound images evidence of an inactive, south‐dipping strand of the SFZ, which is overprinted by Quaternary folding and slip along north‐dipping backthrusts within the hanging wall of a blind, south‐dipping fault located 6 km farther north. To explain these results, we propose that the SFZ is a normal sequence fault propagation fold that has stepped northward through time, and we show the plausibility of this model through trishear forward modeling. Growth strata and faulting imaged in Quaternary sediments in Lake Washington and Rich Passage are consistent with the spatial distribution of folding and backthrusting that occurred during an M 7–7.5 earthquake in A.D. 900–930, corroborating existing evidence that the SFZ has been active throughout the Quaternary.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2023

A methodology to combine shaking and ground failure models for forecasting seismic damage to buried pipeline networks

How does an earthquake affect buried pipeline networks? It is well known that the seismic performance of buried pipelines depends on ground failures (GFs) as well as strong ground shaking (SGS), but it is unclear how the various types of earthquake hazards should be collectively combined, as existing methodologies tend to examine each of the earthquake hazards separately. In this article, we develop a probability‐based methodology to consistently combine SGS with three types of GF (surface faulting, liquefaction, and landslide) for forecasting seismic damage in buried pipeline networks from a given earthquake rupture scenario. Using a gas transmission pipeline example, we illustrate how the proposed methodology enables others (e.g., researchers, pipeline operators who manage distribution lines, and consultants) to modularly combine various models such as those for estimating probability of GF, permanent ground displacements, and pipeline fragility. Finally, we compare the proposed methodology against the Hazus methodology to explore implications from considering each hazard one at a time.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2024

Limited evidence of late Quaternary tectonic surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, USA

The ~300-km-long eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), USA, is the second-most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Seismicity generally occurs below the Paleozoic fold-and-thrust belt within the Mesoproterozoic basement, at depths of 5–26 km, and earthquake magnitudes during the instrumental record have been moment magnitude ( M w )≤4.8. Evidence of surface deformation may not exist or be difficult to detect because of the vegetated and soil-mantled landscape, landslides, locally steep topography, anthropogenic landscape modification, or long, irregular recurrence intervals between surface-rupturing earthquakes. Despite the deep seismicity, analog models indicate that accumulation of strike-slip or oblique-slip displacement at depth could be expected to propagate upward through the Paleozoic section, producing a detectable surficial signal of distributed faulting. To identify potential surface deformation, we interrogated the landscape at different spatial scales. We evaluated morphotectonic and channel metrics, such as channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry. Additionally, we mapped possible fault-related topographic features on 1-m lidar. Finally, we integrated our observations with available bedrock and Quaternary surficial mapping and subsurface geophysical data. At a regional scale, most morphotectonic and channel metrics have a strong lithologic control. Within smaller regions of similar lithology, we observe changes in landscape metrics like channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry that spatially correlate with new lineaments identified in this study and previously mapped east–west Cenozoic faults. These faults have apparent left-lateral offsets, are optimally oriented to slip in the current stress field, and match kinematics from recent focal mechanisms, but do not clearly preserve evidence of late Pleistocene or Holocene tectonic surface deformation. Most newly mapped lineaments might be explained by either tectonic or non-tectonic origins, such as fluvial or karst processes. We also re-evaluated a previously described paleoseismic site and interpret that the exposure does not record evidence of late Pleistocene faulting but instead is explained by fluvial stratigraphy.

Tennessee↗