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Subducting plate structure and megathrust morphology from deep seismic imaging linked to earthquake rupture segmentation at Cascadia

The origin of rupture segmentation along subduction zone megathrusts and linkages to the structural evolution of the subduction zone are poorly understood. Here, regional-scale seismic imaging of the Cascadia margin is used to characterize the megathrust spanning ~900 km from Vancouver Island to the California border, across the seismogenic zone to a few tens of kilometers from the coast. Discrete domains in lower plate geometry and sediment underthrusting are identified, not evident in prior regional plate models, which align with changes in lithology and structure of the upper plate and interpreted paleo-rupture patches. Strike-slip faults in the lower plate associated with oblique subduction mark boundaries between regions of distinct lower plate geometry. Their formation may be linked to changes in upper plate structure across long-lived upper plate faults. The Juan de Fuca plate is fragmenting within the seismogenic zone at Cascadia as the young plate bends beneath the heterogeneous upper plate resulting in structural domains that coincide with paleo-rupture segmentation.

Oregon, Washington

Utilizing downhole datasets for modelling the aeromagnetic signature of the Iron Creek Co-Cu deposit in the Idaho Cobalt Belt

The Idaho Cobalt Belt in east-central Idaho is host to some of the largest domestic Co resources, including the informal Iron Creek deposit. The two main ore zones of this deposit, the Iron Creek and the Ruby, are hosted in greenschist-grade interbedded argillite/siltstone and quartz-rich units of the Mesoproterozoic Apple Creek Formation of Lemhi Group. The primary ore mineral is cobalt-bearing pyrite, which occurs with pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and magnetite. This study integrates mineralogical and core-scale geophysical measurements with regional-scale aeromagnetic surveys. The high magnetite content within the Ruby zone produces elevated magnetic susceptibility, but the relatively limited spatial footprint of the ore zone would produce a small-scale anomaly that may be overlooked in regional surveys. The low magnetite content in the Iron Creek zone results in low magnetic susceptibility, creating a relatively low amplitude geophysical response. By characterizing the magnetic properties and mineralogy of these ore zones, this study enhances the interpretation of aeromagnetic data, enabling the identification of small or faint anomalies as potential Co targets. These findings improve can improve exploration strategies, both within the Idaho Cobalt Belt as well as for similar deposit types globally.

Idaho

Forecasting volcanic activity in Germany—A multi-criteria approach

Igneous activity, including shallow intrusions and volcanism, has the potential to disrupt underground critical infrastructure. Notably, future underground infrastructure projects like high-level radioactive waste repositories must be sited in areas of extremely low disruption probability by igneous activity. In Germany, according to the Repository Site Selection Act of 2017 (Standortauswahlgesetz, or StandAG), areas in which Quaternary volcanism is either present or future volcanic activity is expected within the next 1 million years (m.y.) must be excluded from the site selection process. Although the locations of regions with Quaternary volcanism are reasonably well known in Germany, forecasting potential igneous activity at intraplate volcanic fields is challenging, as many processes and their interactions control the spatial distribution of volcanic centers. Here, a semi-quantitative, multi-criteria approach is proposed for a regional evaluation of the relative potential of future igneous activity in Germany. A variety of geoscientific indicators are used, including seismic anomalies in Earth’s mantle, gravity data, tectonic activity, sutures, ground motion, earthquakes, mantle degassing centers, and geochronological data of volcanic rocks. The indicators describe the sequence of processes from potential melt generation in Earth’s mantle, through ascent and accumulation of melt within the lithosphere, to eruption at Earth’s surface. In total, 15 out of 30 proposed geoscientific indicators are selected and quantified using 20 total assigned parameters. Defined threshold values are used to spatially delimit relevant parameter properties to focus on areas with higher potential of future magmatic activity. To consider uncertainties of parameters and their underlying processes, which are usually more spatially extensive below ground, buffer zones are defined in which values of relevance decrease with increasing distance from the initial lateral shape of a parameter. Normalized parameters are combined into an index, whose spatial value distribution is used to differentiate the relative potential of future igneous activity (within the next 1 m.y.). The sensitivity of the results is shown by varying the weighting factors for the relevant parameters in country-wide index maps. Thereby, profiles illustrate the distribution of the resulting index values and respective index fractions of various parameters. Different index maps for the relative potential of future igneous activity are presented and can be used for hazard assessments.

Professional Paper

A partially nonergodic ground-motion model for Fourier amplitude spectra for the San Francisco Bay area, California, USA

We develop a partially nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra for the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA, using the Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) GMM as a reference ergodic GMM and developing location-dependent adjustments to the predicted median and variance. We compile regional ground-motion data from moment magnitude (𝑀 w ) >3 earthquakes occurring during 2000–2022 for which magnitude information is available in the U.S. Geological Survey Comprehensive Catalog (Guy et al., 2015). The data set predominantly consists of records from 𝑀 w 3.5–4.5 earthquakes but includes three well-recorded 𝑀 w > 5 events. Ground-motion residuals are evaluated using the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (𝑉 S30 ) from the California-specific map of Thompson et al. (2018) and basin-depth site parameters from the seismic velocity model of Aagaard and Hirakawa (2021). The 𝑉 S30 dependence and basin-depth scaling of the reference ergodic GMM of Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) are evaluated and modified with the updated data set. We compute maps of site adjustments using a varying-coefficient model that considers the spatial correlation structure and uncertainties at each observation location. The spatial covariance model is developed using ground-motion residuals that are standardized by the uncertainty model, which allows for consideration of the aleatory variability in developing the site adjustments. The covariance model is fit considering the means and standard deviations of the site terms at all locations. The use of partially nonergodic median adjustments results in modified variance components of the within-event variability. Due to the low number of large-magnitude earthquakes that control seismic hazard in the data set, we do not modify between-event variance; however, we present adjustments to site-to-site variability for use in partially nonergodic hazard assessments.

California

Indirect mineral import reliance and provenance

Mineral commodity supply chain analyses rely on international trade data reported by individual countries as quantities of a mineral commodity form imported from (or exported to) a partner. However, export quantities frequently exceed a country’s domestic production, or occur when no production data are reported, suggesting that the trade partner is merely an intermediary in a transshipment. These discrepancies can result in misleading conclusions regarding supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies. We present a two-stage methodology to reconcile gaps between reported material sources and actual producers. First, we construct trade networks for specific mineral forms, treating production as a type of import to distinguish producing nations from entrepôts. By tracing flows through these networks, we attribute a target country’s imports to original producers via both direct (in a single trade link) and indirect (transferring through intermediaries) pathways. Second, these production-attributed flows are incorporated into multi-stage supply chains to determine the upstream provenance of feedstock for domestic refining and processing. This approach provides a more representative picture of trade reliance. For example, while the United States (U.S.) Geological Survey reports no imports of unwrought antimony metal from Russia in 2022 (U.S. Geological Survey (2025). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. 10.3133/mcs2025), our analysis reveals that over 16% of U.S. imports can be traced back to Russian mining through intermediate processing in countries such as China, India, and Vietnam. Additionally, our analysis of the aluminum supply chain shows that while the U.S. is reported as 52% net import reliant on aluminum materials in 2022, it is 100% reliant on foreign bauxite, 7% of which arrived indirectly. This unreported reliance, which is predominantly tied to bauxite mined in Brazil (43%) and Jamaica (28%), highlights our methods ability to capture the supply chain’s dependence on foreign feedstock that may be missing in single-stage trade data.

Mineral Economics

Igneous differentiation in arcs

This chapter assesses crystallization-differentiation of convergent-margin magmas both from the standpoints of natural rock suites and from laboratory phase-equilibrium experiments. Crystallization-differentiation of dry subalkaline and alkaline basalts are summarized at the beginning for reference and context. Experiments crystallizing arc basalts through andesites at middle to upper crustal pressures (100–400 MPa), saturated either with H 2 O or mixed H 2 O-CO 2 , produce liquid lines of descent similar to arc igneous suites, with higher f O 2 s giving results closer to calc-alkaline magma series. Early enrichment of melts in SiO 2 with little or no enrichment in FeO* (total Fe as FeO) comes about by the combined effects of H 2 O suppressing crystallization of plagioclase relative to olivine, shifting plagioclase to more calcic – therefore lower SiO 2 – compositions, and suppressing silicate minerals to greater extents than Fe-rich spinel. Also contributing to SiO 2 enrichment is crystallization near the liquidus of higher proportions of olivine relative to calcic clinopyroxene, compared with MORB, but it is unclear if this is brought about by H 2 O or elevated pressure. Exhumed arc terranes, however, generally fail to expose evidence for primitive liquids having reached and differentiated at middle to upper crustal depths, at least in any abundance. Instead, most differentiation in arcs appears to take place in the lower crust or near the crust-mantle transition, and although hydrous experiments at such pressures produce liquids broadly similar to arc suites in their SiO 2 enrichment, the experimental liquids differ in becoming peraluminous at early stages of differentiation while melts have basaltic, basaltic andesitic, or andesitic SiO 2 concentrations. Crystallization of abundant calcic clinopyroxene close to the liquidus causes the high-pressure experimental liquids to become peraluminous with only small increases in SiO 2 concentration. In contrast, natural arc volcanic and plutonic suites become gradually less metaluminous with increasing SiO 2 , crossing to peraluminous at dacitic to rhyolitic SiO 2 concentrations. Hybridism, encompassing magma-mixing, assimilation of old crust, and incorporation of near-solidus melts from only shortly older deep, antecedent arc intrusions may accompany natural crystallization-differentiation, preventing melts from attaining peraluminous compositions at low-SiO 2 concentrations. If so, then nearly all arc suites are to substantial extents composites, rather than preserving simple, progressive liquid lines of descent. Some comments and assessments are also made on the participation of garnet in arc differentiation and on the production of arc batholiths.

Book chapter

Updating the crustal fault model for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska

We present the crustal fault model for Alaska, based on geologic observations, as a primary input for the 2023 revision of the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model. We update the 2013 Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database to produce a simplified model of 105 fault sections and four fault zone polygons with basic geologic parameters including slip sense and rate. Significant updates include the following: (1) a slip rate of ∼53 mm/year on the Queen Charlotte Fault indicating it accommodates all of the plate boundary motion; (2) quantified slip rates on megathrust splay faults in the southern Prince William Sound region and near Kodiak Island; (3) improved details of structures in the Chugach-St. Elias orogen; (4) revision of the Castle Mountain Fault from right-lateral slip to a predominantly reverse fault; (5) improved Interior Alaska tectonic models that clarify relationships between the Denali, Totschunda, and thrust faults on both sides of the Alaska Range; (6) identified large earthquake sources in the eastern Brooks Range; and (7) omission of the Chatham Strait section of the Denali Fault. The fault model underscores that the collision of the Yakutat microplate is the dominant driver of active crustal faulting in most of Alaska.

Alaska, Yukon

The importance of nodal plane orientation diversity for earthquake focal mechanism stress inversions

Inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms are among the most accessible and reliable methods for determining crustal stress. However, the use of this method varies widely, and assumptions that underpin it are often violated, potentially compromising stress estimates. We investigate the consequences of violating the little-studied assumption that the focal mechanisms have diverse orientations. Our approach is to employ data-informed synthetic mechanisms, with nodal plane orientations defined by recent earthquake lineaments in the Midland Basin, western Texas, and rakes consistent with slip in the mapped stress field. Using both the traditional stress inversion method that assumes constant shear stress magnitudes on the causative faults as well as a recently published variable shear stress method, we show that low fault plane diversity can cause maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientation and relative principal stress magnitude (faulting regime) estimates to differ markedly from the true values. This problem is compounded for catalogs with even modest amounts of noise (≤15°) or few (e.g., 20) mechanisms. Significantly, traditional approaches for quantifying uncertainty such as the bootstrap can severely underestimate the true uncertainty under these circumstances. To remedy this, we provide simple tools to quantify nodal plane orientation diversity and stress inversion reliability.

Geological Society of London Special Publications

Groundwater surveillance of swine pathogens from private wells supplying swine farms in Iowa

Biosecurity practices are essential for maintaining pig health and productivity. Despite these measures, pathogen spread still occurs. Water is one of the largest daily inputs on swine farms by volume and is not routinely tested or disinfected before it is consumed by the animals [1-3], making it a poorly understood biosecurity risk. Groundwater from privately-owned wells is a common water source for swine farms. Pathogens in the landscape, such as bacteria, viruses, and protozoa, can reach groundwater more rapidly through soil macropores, maintaining viability and facilitating transmission of pathogens into aquifers [3-13].

Iowa

To heal or not to heal?: 2. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes in the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma aftershock sequence is consistent with laboratory healing rates

The timing and failure conditions of an earthquake are governed by the interplay between fault reloading and restrengthening. The moment-recurrence time behavior of repeating earthquakes can give observational estimates of fault healing rates; however, it is difficult to link these observed healing rates to laboratory studies of frictional healing in part because of uncertainty in lithology. Here, we study the 2011 Prague earthquake sequence, which includes repeating earthquakes in the Arbuckle group and the granitic basement, and compare them to laboratory experiments on samples of the Arbuckle and Troy granite (representative of the basement rock) (Okamoto et al., 2025, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030573 ). We find three spatially distinct groups of repeating earthquakes with different moment-recurrence behavior: (a) constant moment-recurrence time in the Arbuckle group, (b) scattered moment-recurrence time at the intersection of the foreshock-mainshock fault in the granitic basement, and (c) moment-predictable behavior outside of the foreshock-mainshock fault intersection also in the granitic basement. Our observation of stagnant healing for repeating sequences in the Arbuckle group is consistent with laboratory observations of low healing rates for moderately high pore fluid pressures in Arbuckle samples. For the moment-predictable group, the source radius that is required in order to match healing rates is consistent with source radius estimations when taking into account reasonable attenuation of the P- pulse width. Overall, we observe diverse healing behaviors in the seismic families that are consistent with laboratory healing rates, providing seismic evidence that contact-scale frictional mechanisms are relevant to large-scale earthquake dynamics.

Oklahoma

Plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)

Introduction This report presents a plan supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) to coordinate domestic and international post-earthquake investigations (herein called “the Plan”). Post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations are undertaken to capture critical information to understand the causes and impacts of the event, lessons from which can substantially improve the Nation’s resilience after future earthquakes. NEHRP is the Federal Government’s coordinated nationwide program to reduce risks to life and property from earthquakes. The Plan describes the activation and coordination of the four designated NEHRP Agencies in the Federal Government: Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Plan also describes coordination between NEHRP Agencies and other organizations that may participate in pre-event and post-earthquake investigations, including non-NEHRP Federal agencies; State, regional, local, Tribal, and territorial agencies; domestic nongovernmental organizations; academic institutions and affiliated organizations; private companies; foreign governmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations; and international organizations. The Plan delineates the coordination of NEHRP post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations to document the direct, indirect, and cascading physical and societal impacts from fault rupture and ground shaking hazards and from secondary hazards such as landslides, liquefaction, and tsunamis. In addition, the Plan identifies pre-event activities necessary to ensure that post-earthquake investigations are executed effectively. The USGS is the lead NEHRP Agency for activating and coordinating NEHRP post-earthquake investigations and for implementing this Plan. The USGS also leads coordination of the NEHRP Agencies in completing the pre-event activities identified in the Plan. The Plan has new information and supersedes USGS Circular 1242, “The Plan to Coordinate NEHRP Post-Earthquake Investigations,” which was published in 2003. This second-generation Plan was developed with the assistance of the Applied Technology Council (ATC) of Redwood City, California, under USGS contract 140G0121P0309, ATC-155. A 17-member Project Review Panel provided guidance on plan development, and input was solicited from subject matter experts representing key stakeholder groups and from participants at a public workshop.

Circular

Repeated coseismic uplift of coastal lagoons above the Patton Bay Splay Fault System, Montague Island, Alaska, USA

Coseismic slip on the Patton Bay splay fault system during the 1964 M w 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake contributed to local tsunami generation and vertically uplifted shorelines as much as 11 m on Montague Island in Prince William Sound (PWS). Sudden uplift of 3.7–4.3 m caused coastal lagoons along the island's northwestern coast to gradually drain. The resulting change in depositional environment from marine lagoon to freshwater muskeg created a sharp, laterally continuous stratigraphic contact between silt and overlying peat. Here, we characterize the geomorphology, sedimentology, and diatom ecology across the 1964 earthquake contact and three similar prehistoric contacts within the stratigraphy of the Hidden Lagoons locality. We find that the contacts signal instances of abrupt coastal uplift that, within error, overlap the timing of independently constrained megathrust earthquakes in PWS—1964 Common Era, 760–870 yr BP, 2500–2700 yr BP, and 4120–4500 yr BP. Changes in fossil diatom assemblages across the inferred prehistoric earthquake contacts reflect ecological shifts consistent with repeated draining of a lagoon system caused by >3 m of coseismic uplift. Our observations provide evidence for four instances of combined megathrust-splay fault ruptures that have occurred in the past ∼4,200 years in PWS. The possibility that 1964-style combined megathrust-splay fault ruptures may have repeated in the past warrants their consideration in future seismic and tsunami hazards assessments.

Alaska

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah

Earthquake rupture arrest from depth‐dependent frictional stability on the Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye (Turkey)

Determining why earthquake ruptures stop is a central challenge in earthquake science and seismic hazard assessment. The Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Türkiye, exhibits shallow creep (<∼3 km depth) yet hosts M > 6.5 earthquake ruptures at greater depth. Here, we evaluate whether variations in frictional stability along this segment aided arrest of the 2020 M 6.7 Elaziğ and 2023 M 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake ruptures. Analysis of Sentinel‐1 Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery indicates the 2023 M 7.8 rupture propagated laterally into a metamorphic massif within the Pütürge segment, where slip rapidly decayed below detection limits. Creepmeters along this segment recorded no significant surface afterslip (<3 mm) in the following year. To investigate this fault‐slip behavior, we conducted triaxial friction experiments on Pütürge fault gouge sampled from an outcrop exposure. The gouge, composed primarily of muscovite, quartz, and calcite, is velocity strengthening at conditions approximating 0–2.5 km depth and velocity weakening at 4–5 km depth. This transition to velocity‐weakening friction is associated with enhanced comminution and shear localization observed microstructurally. Our results suggest that depth‐dependent frictional stability of the Pütürge fault segment facilitates rupture nucleation and propagation at depth while maintaining rupture‐arresting behavior near Earth’s surface.

Pütürge segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone

Seismicity and anisotropic imaging reveal an active detachment beneath the northern Alaska Range foothills

North of the Denali Fault, the collision between the Yakutat block with North America is accommodated by a fold-thrust belt giving rise to the northern Alaska Range foothills. At the western end, the Kantishna Hills anticline hosts prominent microseismicity and surface deformation, interpreted as active folding of the Kantishna Hills anticline above a midcrustal detachment. We test for this detachment by using anisotropy-aware receiver functions to image fabric contrasts within the crust in context with seismicity. Seismic stations near the crest of the Kantishna Hills anticline and near its southern flank show a single strong contrast in dipping fabric at depths of 12–13 km near microseismicity clustering depths, consistent with a detachment plane beneath the fold. A minimum b -value at 10–13 km depth is consistent with seismicity on the detachment, compatible with the imaged anisotropic contrast, while off-fault seismicity is shallower and deeper with smaller magnitudes. South-dipping imbricate thrusts in schist characterize the northern Alaska Range foothills structure. This supports our interpretation of the observed anisotropy as reflecting SSW–SSE-dipping foliation above a detachment at ∼10–13 km depth that exploits existing crustal weaknesses along subtle fabric contrasts observed in the seismically quiescent region north of the actively deforming belt.

Alaska

ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most likely to achieve this goal in large‐magnitude earthquakes. In recent years, ShakeAlert has gone through a series of upgrades to its underlying scientific algorithms aimed at improved performance during large earthquakes. Version 3 of this software recently went live in the production system and includes improvements to all algorithms. The main seismic algorithms that detect an earthquake and characterize its location, magnitude, and fault rupture orientation are faster than older versions. Other key changes include: using real‐time geodetic data to characterize the magnitude growth in large earthquakes; the introduction of an alert pause procedure to compromise between speed near the epicenter and improved accuracy at larger distances; and the inclusion of a nonergodic site‐response model in the ground‐motion predictions. ShakeAlert has achieved its primary goal of usable warning times before strong shaking at some locations in real‐time operations in recent M 6 earthquakes. Using offline tests, we demonstrate usable warning times are possible for many sites with peak shaking values of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 7–8 in M 7+ earthquakes and also for many MMI 8–9 sites in M 8+ earthquakes. ShakeAlert partners use a variety of MMI and magnitude thresholds in deciding when to alert their users within bounds set by the USGS. Our study shows that there is room to raise the magnitude thresholds up to about M 5.5 without adversely affecting performance in large earthquakes. The ground‐motion criteria are more complex owing to a significant drop‐off in warning times between the MMI 4 and 5 levels of predicted shaking. However, widely used ShakeAlert products, such as the MMI 3 and 4 contour products, can provide sufficiently long warning times before strong shaking in moderate‐to‐great earthquakes to enable a range of protective actions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Critical minerals in mine waste

Introduction Critical minerals are commodities with vulnerable supply chains that play a vital role in supporting the United States’ economy, national defense and security, emerging technologies, and energy independence. The prosperity of our Nation depends on generating a resilient supply of domestic critical minerals; mine waste may be an untapped source of these commodities. Mine waste from centuries of legacy mining persist on the landscape and may contain critical minerals and other valuable commodities previously deemed uneconomic to recover. At modern mines, the financial viability of recovering byproduct critical minerals, which are not the primary target, may be marginal and can ultimately destine them to mine waste. Further, mine waste can be a liability for the mining company or, at legacy mines, the taxpayer because of its effect on the landscape. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has several initiatives to evaluate critical mineral resources in various types of waste. This factsheet highlights studies of mine waste carried out by USGS scientists at the Geology, Energy & Minerals Science Center in collaboration with other science centers funded through the USGS Mineral Resources Program. Recovery of critical minerals from mine waste can aid in remediation efforts and increase domestic supply of vital mineral resources.

Fact Sheet

Development of USGS NSHMs: Do small changes in hazard imply small changes in risk?

One of the flagship products from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Since 1976, the NSHM has been periodically updated to reflect newly published earthquake science and provide probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard for the United States. During each update cycle, alternative models are deliberated, analyzed, and documented through logic trees and their corresponding logic tree branch weights. For example, the decision to modify a logic tree branch weight may be influenced by sensitivity analyses of the logic tree branches in their effects on the mean hazard. However, do small changes in traditional measures of hazard imply small changes in risk? In this study, we make use of two update cycles of the USGS NSHMs and a National Bridge Inventory (NBI) from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to explore the preceding question. Specifically, we first identify geographic locations in the conterminous United States in which the change in hazard from one cycle to another is relatively small. Next, we model the seismic risk to highway bridges for these locations and for each update cycle, while simultaneously distinguishing low hazard environments from high hazard environments. These data enable quantitative analysis of how much changes in risk can be expected given small changes in hazard, investigating the importance of risk models in decision-making during development of the USGS NSHMs.

Conference Paper