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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Multitemporal L- and C-Band synthetic aperture radar to highlight differences in water status among boreal forest and wetland systems in the Yukon Flats, Interior Alaska

Tracking landscape-scale water status in high-latitude boreal systems is indispensable to understanding the fate of stored and sequestered carbon in a climate change scenario. Spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery provides critical information for water and moisture status in Alaskan boreal environments at the landscape scale. When combined with results from optical sensor analyses, a complementary picture of vegetation, biomass, and water status emerges. Whereas L-band SAR showed better inherent capacity to map water status, C-band had much more temporal coverage in this study. Analysis through the use of L- and C-band SARs combined with Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) enables landscape stratification by vegetation and by seasonal and interannual hydrology. Resultant classifications are highly relevant to biogeochemistry at the landscape scale. These results enhance our understanding of ecosystem processes relevant to carbon balance and may be scaled up to inform regional carbon flux estimates and better parameterize general circulation models (GCMs).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Quantifying the extent of river fragmentation by hydropower dams in the Sarapiquí River Basin, Costa Rica

Costa Rica has recently experienced a rapid proliferation of dams for hydropower on rivers draining its northern Caribbean slope. In the Sarapiquí River Basin, eight hydropower plants were built between 1990 and 1999 and more projects are either under construction or proposed. The majority of these dams are small (<15 m tall) and operate as water diversion projects. While the potential environmental effects of individual projects are evaluated prior to dam construction, there is a need for consideration of the basin-scale ecological consequences of hydropower development. This study was a first attempt to quantify the extent of river fragmentation by dams in the Sarapiquí River Basin. Using simple spatial analyses, the length of river upstream from dams and the length of de-watered reaches downstream from dams was measured. Results indicated that there are currently 306.8 km of river (9.4% of the network) upstream from eight existing dams in the Sarapiquí River Basin and 30.6 km of rivers (0.9% of the network) with significantly reduced flow downstream from dams. Rivers upstream from dams primarily drain two life zones: Premontane Rain Forest (107.9 km) and Lower Montane Rain Forest (168.2 km). Simple spatial analyses can be used as a predictive or planning tool for considering the effects of future dams in a basin-scale context. In the Sarapiquí River Basin, we recommend that future dam projects be constructed on already dammed rivers to minimize additional river fragmentation and to protect remaining riverine connectivity.

Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosys↗

USGS2026

Can a physics-based fire behavior model predict burn severity and post-fire debris flow hazard?

Post-wildfire flooding and debris flows pose a threat to ecosystems and infrastructure. As the frequency and size of severe wildfires increase, there is a growing need for predictive debris flow hazard modeling in unburned but fire-prone landscapes. However, no crosswalks have been established between physics-based models of fire behavior and the remotely sensed burn severity inputs needed for debris flow modeling. Here, we explore this connection by creating a large ensemble of fire behavior simulations using QUIC-Fire – a fast-running three-dimensional fire model – in basins across five major-disaster wildfires in California and Washington. We then conducted generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) and Random Forest modeling to identify QUIC-Fire outputs that best predicted remotely sensed burn severity. We found that the selected linear predictors exhibited weak and unintuitive relationships with soil burn severity and differenced Normalized Burn Ratio. Moreover, model evaluations of GLMMs and Random Forests showed they were poorly predictive of both metrics of remotely sensed burn severity. This suggests that there are barriers to integrating QUIC-Fire into a wildfire-hazards modeling framework, which could include mismatches in scale between fire models and remotely sensing, or simplifications of weather data and fire initiation. Further research is needed to establish connections between the fire physics outputs of QUIC-Fire and post-fire effects to vegetation and soils that are essential for evaluating debris flow hazard.

California, Washington↗

USGS2016

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Effects of reintroduced beaver ( Castor canadensis ) on riparian bird community structure along the upper San Pedro River, southeastern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico

Chapter 1.—We measured bird abundance and richness along the upper San Pedro River in 2005 and 2006, in order to document how beavers ( Castor canadensis ) may act as ecosystem engineers after their reintroduction to a desert riparian area in the Southwestern United States. In areas where beavers colonized, we found higher bird abundance and richness of bird groups, such as all breeding birds, insectivorous birds, and riparian specialists, and higher relative abundance of many individual species—including several avian species of conservation concern. Chapter 2.—We conducted bird surveys in riparian areas along the upper San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona (United States) and northern Sonora (Mexico) in order to describe factors influencing bird community dynamics and the distribution and abundance of species, particularly those of conservation concern. These surveys were also used to document the effects of the ecosystem-altering activities of a recently reintroduced beavers ( Castor canadensis ). Chapter 3.—We reviewed Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) nest records and investigated the potential for future breeding along the upper San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona, where in July 2005 we encountered the southernmost verifiable nest attempt for the species. Continued conservation and management of the area’s riparian vegetation and surface water has potential to contribute additional breeding sites for this endangered Willow Flycatcher subspecies. Given the nest record along the upper San Pedro River and the presence of high-density breeding sites to the north, the native cottonwood-willow forests of the upper San Pedro River could become increasingly important to E. t. extimus recovery, especially considering the anticipated effect of the tamarisk leaf beetle ( Diorhabda carinulata ) on riparian habitat north of the region.

Arizona;Sonora↗

USGS2011

Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges

Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process‐based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long‐term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

USGS2015

Evaluating multi-level models to test occupancy state responses of Plethodontid salamanders

Plethodontid salamanders are diverse and widely distributed taxa and play critical roles in ecosystem processes. Due to salamander use of structurally complex habitats, and because only a portion of a population is available for sampling, evaluation of sampling designs and estimators is critical to provide strong inference about Plethodontid ecology and responses to conservation and management activities. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of multi-scale and hierarchical single-scale occupancy models in the context of a Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) experimental design with multiple levels of sampling. Also, we fit the hierarchical single-scale model to empirical data collected for Oregon slender and Ensatina salamanders across two years on 66 forest stands in the Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. All models were fit within a Bayesian framework. Estimator precision in both models improved with increasing numbers of primary and secondary sampling units, underscoring the potential gains accrued when adding secondary sampling units. Both models showed evidence of estimator bias at low detection probabilities and low sample sizes; this problem was particularly acute for the multi-scale model. Our results suggested that sufficient sample sizes at both the primary and secondary sampling levels could ameliorate this issue. Empirical data indicated Oregon slender salamander occupancy was associated strongly with the amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = 0.74; SD = 0.24); Ensatina occupancy was not associated with amount of coarse woody debris (posterior mean = -0.01; SD = 0.29) . Our simulation results indicate that either model is suitable for use in an experimental study of Plethodontid salamanders provided that sample sizes are sufficiently large. However, hierarchical single-scale and multi-scale models describe different processes and estimate different parameters. As a result, we recommend careful consideration of study questions and objectives prior to sampling data and fitting models.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2019

The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species

Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua ( Metrosideros polymorpha ), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens ( Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia ) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ‘ōhi‘a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of ‘ōhi‘a. We further modeled the potential distribution of C. lukuohia across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for C. lukuohia to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of C. lukuohia to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai‘i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large ‘ōhi‘a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding C. lukuohia suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to ‘ōhi‘a trees, a precondition for Ceratocystis infection. Given the ongoing spread of C. lukuohia , we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of C. lukuohia as it continues to spread.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Identifying the molecular signatures of agricultural expansion in Amazonian headwater streams

Agricultural impacts on aquatic ecosystems are well-studied, however, most research has focused on temperate regions, whereas the forefront of agricultural expansion is currently in the tropics. At the vanguard of this growth is the boundary between the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in Brazil, driven primarily by expansion of soybean and corn croplands. Here we examine the impacts of cropland expansion on receiving lowland Amazon Basin headwater streams in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition via ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry. Streams draining croplands had lower DOC concentrations and DOM molecular signatures enriched in N- and S-containing formula in comparison to forested streams. Cropland streams were also enriched in aliphatic, peptide-like and highly unsaturated and phenolic (low O/C) compound categories in comparison to forest streams (enriched in polyphenolics, condensed aromatics and highly unsaturated and phenolic (high O/C) compound categories) indicative of the shifting of sources from organic-rich surface soils and litter layers to autochthonous and more microbial biomass. Distinct molecular assemblages were strongly correlated with cropland and forest catchments, highlighting headwater streams as sentinels for detecting change. On investigation of unique molecular formulae present in only cropland sites, four cropland markers provided the ability to track agricultural impacts in the region. Overall, these patterns indicate reduced organic matter inputs in croplands and greater microbial degradation at these sites leading to declining DOC concentrations, and DOM of more microbial character in receiving streams that is more biolabile, with clear ramifications for downstream ecology and biogeochemical cycles.

Amazon River basin, Tanguro Ranch, Xinga River↗

USGS2018

Development of the Wildlife Adaptation Menu for Resource Managers

The Climate Change Response Framework is an example of a collaborative, cross-boundary approach to create a set of tools, partnerships, and actions to support climate-informed conservation and land management. Historically, this effort has focused on the needs of forest managers and forestry professionals. In recent years, however, there has been increasing demand for science and tools to address climate change adaptation in wildlife management and conservation. Not only do wildlife and resource managers need the best available science, it must also be presented in a usable format with feasible options within the purview of an individual manager. The research team is first completing a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed studies to summarize what wildlife-related management actions currently exist in climate change adaptation. They will then develop and test a “menu” of climate change adaptation actions that are suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems. This Wildlife Adaptation Menu will be modeled off existing adaptation menus for Forestry and Urban Forestry, and it will be designed to be used in conjunction with the Adaptation Workbook . In addition to a menu of adaption strategies and approaches, the scientists will also identify site-level tactics and develop case studies demonstrating the use and implementation of the menu. To ensure that information and tools meet the needs of managers, the team is involving and integrating input from wildlife managers at every step of the process. Managers will be involved in scoping the project, testing the menu, and implementing the menu.

Final Report↗

USGS2014

Influence of riparian and watershed alterations on sandbars in a Great Plains river

Anthropogenic alterations have caused sandbar habitats in rivers and the biota dependent on them to decline. Restoring large river sandbars may be needed as these habitats are important components of river ecosystems and provide essential habitat to terrestrial and aquatic organisms. We quantified factors within the riparian zone of the Kansas River, USA, and within its tributaries that influenced sandbar size and density using aerial photographs and land use/land cover (LULC) data. We developed, a priori , 16 linear regression models focused on LULC at the local, adjacent upstream river bend, and the segment (18–44 km upstream) scales and used an information theoretic approach to determine what alterations best predicted the size and density of sandbars. Variation in sandbar density was best explained by the LULC within contributing tributaries at the segment scale, which indicated reduced sandbar density with increased forest cover within tributary watersheds. Similarly, LULC within contributing tributary watersheds at the segment scale best explained variation in sandbar size. These models indicated that sandbar size increased with agriculture and forest and decreased with urban cover within tributary watersheds. Our findings suggest that sediment supply and delivery from upstream tributary watersheds may be influential on sandbars within the Kansas River and that preserving natural grassland and reducing woody encroachment within tributary watersheds in Great Plains rivers may help improve sediment delivery to help restore natural river function.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2017

Small mammals as indicators of climate, biodiversity, and ecosystem change

Climate is a driving evolutionary force for biodiversity in high-latitude Alaska. This region is complex and dynamic with high annual variation in temperature and light. Through deeper time, Alaska has experienced major climate extremes over much longer periodicity. For example, the Quaternary Period (the last ~2.5 million years), commonly known as the Ice Age, was punctuated by more than 20 major glacial-interglacial cycles. During glacial phases, water was locked up in ice sheets that covered much of North America, and the resulting lower sea levels exposed a land connection between Alaska and Siberia, a combined region known as Beringia (Figure 1). This isthmus provided vast expanses of land for species to inhabit, provided they could withstand potentially harsh polar conditions. Each extended glacial phase periodically transitioned into a shorter interglacial warm phase. These climate reversals melted continental ice sheets to expose corridors for reinvasion of terrestrial species, particularly those associated with forested habitats further south. Those species that survived at northern latitudes through repeated glacial-interglacial cycles formed the Arctic tundra communities that persist today. At present, Alaska supports diverse communities associated with both tundra and forests (Figure 2). These communities often interact with one another across latitudinal and elevational gradients, with tundra species generally found further north or higher in elevation. Alaska’s climate is continuing to change today, strongly influencing local environments and the distribution and dynamics of wildlife species.

Alaska, Siberia↗

USGS2014

Using ecological indicators and a decision support system for integrated ecological assessment at two national park units in the Mid-Atlantic region, U.S.A.

We implemented an integrated ecological assessment using a GIS-based decision support system model for Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River (UPDE) and Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (DEWA)—national park units with the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Our assessment examined a variety of aquatic and terrestrial indicators of ecosystem components that reflect the parks’ conservation purpose and reference condition. Our assessment compared these indicators to ecological thresholds to determine the condition of park watersheds. Selected indicators included chemical and physical measures of water quality, biologic indicators of water quality, and landscape condition measures. For the chemical and physical measures of water quality, we used a water quality index and each of its nine components to assess the condition of water quality in each watershed. For biologic measures of water quality, we used the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera aquatic macroinvertebrate index and, secondarily, the Hilsenhoff aquatic macroinvertebrate index. Finally, for the landscape condition measures of our model, we used percent forest and percent impervious surface. Based on our overall assessment, UPDE and DEWA watersheds had an ecological assessment score of 0.433 on a −1 to 1 fuzzy logic scale. This score indicates that, in general, the natural resource condition within watersheds at these parks is healthy or ecologically unimpaired; however, we had only partial data for many of our indicators. Our model is iterative and new data may be incorporated as they become available. These natural parks are located within a rapidly urbanizing landscape—we recommend that natural resource managers remain vigilant to surrounding land uses that may adversely affect natural resources within the parks.

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2022

Temporal greenness trends in stable natural land cover and relationships with climatic variability across the conterminous United States

Assessment of temporal trends in vegetation greenness and related influences aids understanding of recent change in terrestrial ecosystems and feedbacks from weather, climate, and environment. We analyzed 1-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) timeseries data (1989–2016) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and developed growing season time-integrated NDVI (GS-TIN) for estimating seasonal vegetation activity across stable natural land cover in the conterminous United States (CONUS). After removing areas from analysis that had experienced land cover conversion or modification, we conducted a monotonic trend analysis on the GS-TIN timeseries and found that significant positive temporal trends occurred over 35% of the area, while significant negative trends were observed over only 3.5%. Positive trends were prevalent in the forested lands of the eastern third of CONUS and far northwest, as well as in grasslands in the north central plains. We observed negative and nonsignificant trends mainly in the shrublands and grasslands across the northwest, southwest, and west central plains. To understand the relationship of climate variability with these temporal trends, we conducted partial and multiple correlation analyses on GS-TIN, growing season temperature, and water-year precipitation timeseries. The GS-TIN trends in northern forests were positively correlated with temperature. The GS-TIN trends in the central and western shrublands and grasslands were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. Our results revealed spatial patterns in vegetation greenness trends for different stable natural vegetation types across CONUS, enhancing understanding gained from prior studies based on coarser 8-km AVHRR data.

Earth Interactions↗

USGS2000

Chinese tallow: Invading the southeastern Coastal Plain

Chinese tallow is an ornamental tree with colorful autumn foliage that can survive full sunlight and shade, flooding, drought, and in some cases fire. To horticulturists this kind of tree sounds like a dream, but to ecologists, land managers, and land owners this kind of tree can be a nightmare, especially when it invades an area and takes over native vegetation. Chinese tallow ( Triadica sebifera ), a nonnative tree from China, is currently transforming the southeastern Coastal Plain. Over the last 30 years, Chinese tallow has become a common tree in old fields and bottomland swamps of coastal Louisiana. Several studies at the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wetlands Research Center (NWRC), Lafayette, Louisiana, are aimed at understanding the factors that contribute to Chinese tallow growth, spread, and management. When tallow invades, it eventually monopolizes an area, creating a forest without native animal or plant species. This tree exhibits classic traits of most nonnative invaders: it is attractive so people want to distribute it, it has incredible resiliency, it grows quickly and in a variety of soils, and it is resistant to pests. In the coastal prairie of Louisiana and Texas, Chinese tallow can grow up to 30 feet and shade out native sun-loving prairie species. The disappearing of prairie species is troublesome because less than 1% of original coastal prairie remains, and in Louisiana, less than 500 of the original 2.2 million acres still exist. Tallow reproduces and grows quickly and can cause large-scale ecosystem modification (fig. 1). For example, when it completely replaces native vegetation, it has a negative effect on birds by degrading the habitat. Besides shading out grasses that cattle like to eat, it can also be potentially harmful to humans and animals because of its berries (fig. 2) and plant sap that contain toxins. There is some concern its leaves may shed toxins that change the soil chemistry and make it difficult for other plants to grow.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Mapping karst groundwater flow paths and delineating recharge areas for Fern Cave, Alabama, through the use of dye tracing

Fern Cave in Jackson County, Alabama, is a 15.6-mile-long (25.1-kilometer) cave system, managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Southeastern Cave Conservancy, that has the second highest biodiversity of any cave in the southeastern United States. Groundwater in karst ecosystems is known to be susceptible to impacts from human-induced land-use activities in watersheds that contribute recharge to the groundwater system. To provide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service with necessary baseline information on the groundwater flow system in Fern Cave, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Kentucky Geological Survey conducted a series of dye traces during 2019–21 to delineate the watershed recharging the cave system. The dye traces identified two separate streams that flow through the cave and a recharge area of 1.73 square miles (4.48 square kilometers) draining to the cave system. Current land use within the recharge area is dominated by deciduous forest with minimal additional land use types, indicating a low potential for undesirable effects to the cave by anthropogenic sources.

Alabama↗

USGS2017

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline for quantifying future changes in cloud base, we installed a ceilometer at 100 m altitude in the forest upwind of the TMCF that occupies an altitude range from ∼ 600 m to the peaks at 1100 m in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico. Airport Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) ceilometer data, radiosonde data, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite data were obtained to investigate seasonal cloud base dynamics, altitude of the trade-wind inversion (TWI), and typical cloud thickness for the surrounding Caribbean region. Cloud base is rarely quantified near mountains, so these results represent a first look at seasonal and diurnal cloud base dynamics for the TMCF. From May 2013 to August 2016, cloud base was lowest during the midsummer dry season, and cloud bases were lower than the mountaintops as often in the winter dry season as in the wet seasons. The lowest cloud bases most frequently occurred at higher elevation than 600 m, from 740 to 964 m. The Luquillo forest low cloud base altitudes were higher than six other sites in the Caribbean by ∼ 200–600 m, highlighting the importance of site selection to measure topographic influence on cloud height. Proximity to the oceanic cloud system where shallow cumulus clouds are seasonally invariant in altitude and cover, along with local trade-wind orographic lifting and cloud formation, may explain the dry season low clouds. The results indicate that climate change threats to low-elevation TMCFs are not limited to the dry season; changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns that increase frequency of drought periods during the wet seasons (periods of higher cloud base) may also impact ecosystem health.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics↗

USGS2017

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

Landscape and Urban Planning↗